mikmak8902
Footballguy
And with that said, I choose Hill in dynasty EVERY SINGLE TIME. It's not even close.
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CJ Anderson V Jeremy Hill (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter xenon
- Start date
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
While the zone blocking scheme can hide deficiencies you need the right players to run it well. I don't know they have those guys.
I do know all 5 Bengal linemen are returning. I believe they graded out as the 4th best run blocking line last year.
I do know all 5 Bengal linemen are returning. I believe they graded out as the 4th best run blocking line last year.
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mikmak8902
Footballguy
RBM
Footballguy
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
So you are projecting 280ish carries for Hill.... That's about where I see him as well.
Shawnky
Footballguy
Since when does a split in carries matter? I thought it was what you did with them.
A 60/40 split, if you believe in it, isn't going to give Hill anywhere near 280 carries. They were around that 60/40 number last year, and Hill only mustered about 220, and that was in a season the Bengals were right near the league lead in rushing attempts. This year -- when they've stated quite directly that they intend to pass more, AND when it's simple to point to at least three major cogs in the passing game who are starting the season substantially healthier than they were last year -- they're very unlikely to rush as much as a team.
The tandem of RB's only accounts for maybe 80% of the team's rushing attempts. To believe in 60/40 AND 280 for Hill, you'd have to believe the team is going to cast aside all their now-healthy passing game weapons, and somehow actually radically increase their run totals from last year to somewhere in the neighborhood of 600 attempts.
Not. Going. To. Happen.
Only ways Hill approaches that number are an injured Gio, or a Gio that suffers a massive reduction in workload.
The tandem of RB's only accounts for maybe 80% of the team's rushing attempts. To believe in 60/40 AND 280 for Hill, you'd have to believe the team is going to cast aside all their now-healthy passing game weapons, and somehow actually radically increase their run totals from last year to somewhere in the neighborhood of 600 attempts.
Not. Going. To. Happen.
Only ways Hill approaches that number are an injured Gio, or a Gio that suffers a massive reduction in workload.
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ImTheScientist
Footballguy
You do realize that Hill didn't play much the first half of the season? Assuming 500 carries its very possible Hill gets 280 carries. 2nd half of last season Hill had 148 carries..
When both were healthy the second half of the season Hill average 18 carries a game and Gio was around 9 on a per game basis. That gives Hill around 288 carries for the year.
Do.The.Math.
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I'm gunshy of Hill. The same thing that ahppened to Gio could easily reverse itself. If Hill struggles and Gio has more pop, you're 2nd round pick is on the bad end of that RBBC. High risk, high reward, no question. Unless i find him at a discount he probably wont be on my rosters.
Hi.You do realize that Hill didn't play much the first half of the season? Assuming 500 carries its very possible Hill gets 280 carries. 2nd half of last season Hill had 148 carries..
Do.The.Math.
I wasn't arguing with you. I was correcting you.
Do. The. Math. Yourself.
Yes, Hill can conceivably have 280 carries. No, he can't do it if you want to imagine a 60/40 RB split among the two top backs, unless you also want to imagine some sort of throwback scenario where we're suddenly back in the era before pass-friendly rule changes made 600 carries per year a reality. And that seems very unlikely, given both their stated wish to open up the passing game, AND the health of Green, Gio, and Eifert. Lots of guys -- QB included -- will get credit for rushes. Hill and Gio, even if healthy, aren't going to have nearly 100% of them.
Don't. Get. Snide. When. You're. In. The. Wrong.
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Pots
Footballguy
Hi.You do realize that Hill didn't play much the first half of the season? Assuming 500 carries its very possible Hill gets 280 carries. 2nd half of last season Hill had 148 carries..
Do.The.Math.
I wasn't arguing with you. I was correcting you.
Do. The. Math. Yourself.
Yes, Hill can conceivably have 280 carries. No, he can't do it if you want to imagine a 60/40 RB split among the two top backs, unless you also want to imagine some sort of throwback scenario where we're suddenly back in the era before pass-friendly rule changes made 600 carries per year a reality. And that seems very unlikely, given both their stated wish to open up the passing game, AND the health of Green, Gio, and Eifert. Lots of guys -- QB included -- will get credit for rushes. Hill and Gio, even if healthy, aren't going to have nearly 100% of them.
Don't. Get. Snide. When. You're. In. The. Wrong.
Those thinking Hill is going to have 280+ carries are crazy imo.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am confused. Wouldn't 60% of 600 be 360 carries? Unless people envision 50+ carries by Dalton and others on the team, a 60/40 split would be 280 carries if they combine for 500.
I personally do not think it will be a 60/40 split, more like 70/30 or 75/25 with Gio catching double/triple the passes.
I personally do not think it will be a 60/40 split, more like 70/30 or 75/25 with Gio catching double/triple the passes.
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It's worth understanding, this is a duo that was in that 60/40 range last year. And last year, this team was around 500 rushes.
And Hill was around 220.
Yes, Hill could get up about 280.
Or yes, it could be a 60/40 split between him and Gio.
But no, it isn't as simple as .6 x 500, because those two guys aren't getting 100%, or even 90% of the rushing attempts for the team. And if anything, they appear primed to run less this year.
You can have your 280 cake. And you can eat the 60/40 split. But you can't have that cake and eat it if the cake only has 500 slices. And the cake will probably have fewer slices than that.
And Hill was around 220.
Yes, Hill could get up about 280.
Or yes, it could be a 60/40 split between him and Gio.
But no, it isn't as simple as .6 x 500, because those two guys aren't getting 100%, or even 90% of the rushing attempts for the team. And if anything, they appear primed to run less this year.
You can have your 280 cake. And you can eat the 60/40 split. But you can't have that cake and eat it if the cake only has 500 slices. And the cake will probably have fewer slices than that.
Chaka
Footballguy
It is very rare for a RB to get 70% of the total carries in any given season.
For example last year only three RBs (Murray, McCoy & Forte) had at least 70% of their teams attempts. Only six backs cracked 60% (Murray, McCoy, Forte, Bell, Morris & Gore).
Beginning in week 9, with everything breaking his way on the injury front, Hill had 68% of Cincinatti's carries. Right now, with a healthy squad, it is difficult for me to project him with more than 60% of their rush attempts.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I am just talking about between Hill and Gio. Just those two.Chaka said:
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
This is kind of hilarious. Gio is horrible as a runner. He's going to be relegated to 3rd downs and the occasional breather for Hill. Anybody thinking Gio gets 40% of the carries is kidding themselves. Hill outplayed Gio by miles last year and it's his backfield.
Chaka
Footballguy
Dalton pretty much always has 50+ carries. 60+ the last two years. Is this news to people? If the team runs 500 times again, we're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 400 carries for the RB's to split. And remember, this was already one of the run-heaviest offenses in football. If we're basing our projections on last year's offense, except skewed a bit to account for much improved health to numerous passing game weapons, there's just no way to get Hill to the kind of workload the optimists in this thread are hoping for.
The team's going to have to pretty much hit that totally imaginary 600 attempt number for Hill to even remotely approach these 300 carry dreams unless his RBBC mate gets hurt.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Or Gio is going to get a ton less carries than you're expecting, which seems pretty likely.Dalton pretty much always has 50+ carries. 60+ the last two years. Is this news to people? If the team runs 500 times again, we're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 400 carries for the RB's to split. And remember, this was already one of the run-heaviest offenses in football. If we're basing our projections on last year's offense, except skewed a bit to account for much improved health to numerous passing game weapons, there's just no way to get Hill to the kind of workload the optimists in this thread are hoping for.
And I also still believe the much bigger problem is that he's not going to sniff that 5.4 ypc number again. Hill fattened up on some soft D's, including the league-worst rush D in Cleveland x2. Those NFC teams have been replaced by the much stouter NFC West, and Cleveland has stuffed the middle of that D with a now-healthy Phil Taylor and first round megaload Danny Shelton. They're not going to be anywhere NEAR the worst run D in football this year. The dreams based upon his Gio-less dream run buoyed by creampuff D after creampuff D simply aren't based in reality. Like any good back, he'll still have some good games against good teams, like he did vs. Denver, but he's going to have plenty like he did against Indy as well.
Could it all work out? Sure. Gio could get hurt. That's really the major moving piece. But barring that, he's looking at something like 230/1100, plus a couple hundred bonus yards through the air. Maybe he storms his way to 15+ TD's and gives you Alfred-Morris-in-a-good-year type upside. But he's currently being horribly overdrafted by people who just don't understand the situation beyond, "He was really good at the end of last year."
Football goes deeper than that. Sorry.
Could it all work out? Sure. Gio could get hurt. That's really the major moving piece. But barring that, he's looking at something like 230/1100, plus a couple hundred bonus yards through the air. Maybe he storms his way to 15+ TD's and gives you Alfred-Morris-in-a-good-year type upside. But he's currently being horribly overdrafted by people who just don't understand the situation beyond, "He was really good at the end of last year."
Football goes deeper than that. Sorry.
Tau837
Footballguy
To Freelove's point, here are the teams with 400+ RB rushing attempts last season:
473 DAL
473 HOU
427 CLE
425 NYG
416 PHI
414 CIN
402 BAL
401 DEN
In 2013, the leader was BUF with 454, and 7 other teams had 400+. In 2012, the leader was NE with 483, and 7 other teams had 400+.
In the past 3 seasons, there have been 4 instances of a team having more than 454 RB rushing attempts, peaking at 483. So the discussion in this thread about Hill and Bernard splitting 500 carries is starting from a bad premise, for 3 reasons:
1. The Bengals offense will likely have far fewer than 500 RB rushing attempts, since it had 414 last season and even heavy rushing teams have typically been much lower than 500 RB rushing attempts over the past few seasons.
2. It is very likely that other RBs besides Hill and Bernard will get at least a small number of the team's RB rushing attempts, further reducing the total for the Hill and Bernard to split. For example, CIN RBs Peerman and Burkhead combined for 70 rushing attempts last season. Part of that may have been influenced by Gio missing 3 games, but, even if he played 16 games, it is likely they would have had non-zero rushing attempts.
3. The CIN offense may have fewer overall RB rushing attempts than last season given probable better health of receiving options Green, Sanu, Eifert, and Bernard.
That has been Freelove's main premise in this tangent of discussion, and he is right.
473 DAL
473 HOU
427 CLE
425 NYG
416 PHI
414 CIN
402 BAL
401 DEN
In 2013, the leader was BUF with 454, and 7 other teams had 400+. In 2012, the leader was NE with 483, and 7 other teams had 400+.
In the past 3 seasons, there have been 4 instances of a team having more than 454 RB rushing attempts, peaking at 483. So the discussion in this thread about Hill and Bernard splitting 500 carries is starting from a bad premise, for 3 reasons:
1. The Bengals offense will likely have far fewer than 500 RB rushing attempts, since it had 414 last season and even heavy rushing teams have typically been much lower than 500 RB rushing attempts over the past few seasons.
2. It is very likely that other RBs besides Hill and Bernard will get at least a small number of the team's RB rushing attempts, further reducing the total for the Hill and Bernard to split. For example, CIN RBs Peerman and Burkhead combined for 70 rushing attempts last season. Part of that may have been influenced by Gio missing 3 games, but, even if he played 16 games, it is likely they would have had non-zero rushing attempts.
3. The CIN offense may have fewer overall RB rushing attempts than last season given probable better health of receiving options Green, Sanu, Eifert, and Bernard.
That has been Freelove's main premise in this tangent of discussion, and he is right.
And now that I think of it, given the major changes to both the WAS offensive line and the switch to a VERY Alfred Morris friendly scheme, people should really be expecting Morris to outscore Hill for the year, and I'm not seeing that reflected in draft results...ever.
Just another opportunity for people with their eyes open to get a leg up on people who aren't really plugged in to individual team dynamics. Last year ain't this year, last year's situations aren't this year's situations, and last year's meaningless PFF peripheral numbers aren't this year's meaningless PFF peripheral numbers. Each year's numbers exist at the nexus of talent, opportunity, health, surrounding cast, and scheme.
That place is a lot rosier for Anderson than it is for Hill. And it's a lot rosier for lots of RB's that aren't commonly regarded as being in Hill's neighborhood. This is because people have gross misconceptions about what neighborhood Hill's currently dwelling in.
Just another opportunity for people with their eyes open to get a leg up on people who aren't really plugged in to individual team dynamics. Last year ain't this year, last year's situations aren't this year's situations, and last year's meaningless PFF peripheral numbers aren't this year's meaningless PFF peripheral numbers. Each year's numbers exist at the nexus of talent, opportunity, health, surrounding cast, and scheme.
That place is a lot rosier for Anderson than it is for Hill. And it's a lot rosier for lots of RB's that aren't commonly regarded as being in Hill's neighborhood. This is because people have gross misconceptions about what neighborhood Hill's currently dwelling in.
jurb26
Footballguy
The guy that's being horribly overrated is Gio. It's amazing that people are still latching onto this notion that he's so good when he's not. He's shown us that. Hill will get a lot of work because he's simple better than Gio, by a lot. Currently I have Hill projected for 290 carries with Gio getting 120. I've got Hill receiving 70% of the Cinci RB carries and 60% of the overall team. It doesn't require Gio getting hurt to envision a way for Hill getting 280+ carries. It just requires Cinci committing to getting their clear best RB the ball. I think they will do that.And I also still believe the much bigger problem is that he's not going to sniff that 5.4 ypc number again. Hill fattened up on some soft D's, including the league-worst rush D in Cleveland x2. Those NFC teams have been replaced by the much stouter NFC West, and Cleveland has stuffed the middle of that D with a now-healthy Phil Taylor and first round megaload Danny Shelton. They're not going to be anywhere NEAR the worst run D in football this year. The dreams based upon his Gio-less dream run buoyed by creampuff D after creampuff D simply aren't based in reality. Like any good back, he'll still have some good games against good teams, like he did vs. Denver, but he's going to have plenty like he did against Indy as well.Could it all work out? Sure. Gio could get hurt. That's really the major moving piece. But barring that, he's looking at something like 230/1100, plus a couple hundred bonus yards through the air. Maybe he storms his way to 15+ TD's and gives you Alfred-Morris-in-a-good-year type upside. But he's currently being horribly overdrafted by people who just don't understand the situation beyond, "He was really good at the end of last year."Football goes deeper than that. Sorry.
I'd also love to know how Hill can't sniff 5.4 YPA when the team around him is supposedly going to be massively improved with Green and Eiffert coming back? Cinci also made it a point in the draft to add to their Oline.
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Chaka
Footballguy
I am leaning towards agreeing with jurb in that I think people may be overvaluing Gio. He has been a 4.0 YPC guy two years in a row and his ability out of the backfield is good but it surprisingly doesn't seem to be that much better than Hill's (if at all). That's the part of Hill's game that no one seems to be talking about is that Hill was actually a pretty competent receiver last year (84% catch rate and 8 YPC, Gio is career 76% with an 8.7 YPC). I think that provides Cinci with the ability to confuse defenses more with Hill in the backfield because they won't know if it's a run or a pass. With Gio in there I think defenses will defend pass much more than they will run (and with a guy like Alfred Morris it would be the opposite) but with Hill I don't think you can commit too strongly to either.
I agree with Freelove and don't see 300 carries for Hill but I think he could approach 300 touches.
I agree with Freelove and don't see 300 carries for Hill but I think he could approach 300 touches.
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
I can see Denver going full blown RBBC. Ball looked slippery and Hilman as fast as ever.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Jeremy Hill fun facts:
Only Justin Forsett had a higher Y/C average among RBs with 100+ carries.
Only Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy had more rushing TDs (despite Hill not being featured until the second half of the season).
Only three rookies have rushed for more yards with a higher Y/C average in the past 40 years - Barry Sanders, Clinton Portis and Adrian Peterson.
In the Hill thread, it was pointed out that the list of RBs with seasons of more than four games with 145+ rushing is filled with Hall of Fame caliber RBs (none were rookies, all did it with significantly more carries, and most took 4-5-6 seasons before accomplishing it - only a few backs did it more than once, I think Barry Sanders and O.J. Simpson were two of them). Hill flat out had a historically great rookie season for a RB by several metrics, despite the half season handicap.
It appears that some of the same mistakes in the Hill thread last year continue to be perpetuated here. The Bernard bogeyman was invoked last year. Hill decisively outplayed him in the second half, and even when they were both healthy during that time, Hill was busier with approx a 18-9 edge in carries (18 X 16 = 288 carries). Bernard is a talented receiving, third down and COP back, but he is very average between the tackles as an inside runner. Hill has already established himself as by far the more gifted pure runner, don't see Hue Jackson flipping the script on second half usage. There will be games when Hill has less than 18 carries if they fall behind (but that is where a healthy A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert could help, not hurt Hill, to stay on schedule by enabling the offense as a whole to be more competitive and consistent on a weekly basis, get him in the red zone and put him in position to score more rushing TDs, etc.), but they could be balanced by games where he gets more if he is on a roll. It is almost like the second half of last season didn't happen, and the same Bernard warnings are being invoked in spite of that. Looking forward, Hill is one of the best young backs in the league, and looks like the centerpiece of the offense, surpassing even Green.
Not too many RBs played against a murderers row of top dozen team run defenses, every RB faces some soft defenses. Also in the Hill thread, it was earlier pointed out that one of the best ways to refute this concern was to point out that when looking at COMPARBLE OPPONENTS, Hill did better than other top backs, in amassing those four 145+ yard rushing games in basically a half season. His Y/C average is daunting and a high bar to repeat, but it isn't an accident that he did it, with 60 and 85 yard rushing TDs. He is a great combo of size (nearly 240 lbs.), tackle breaking power and contact balance, outstanding vision, instincts, patience, timing and sense of unfolding downfield blocking lanes, the feet and agility of a much smaller runner and the burst and long speed to score from anywhere on the field at any time. He will have some long runs this year, too. He doesn't need to have as high a Y/C average if he makes up for it in part with higher volume in the 275+ carry range (about 17 carries per game average).
Lastly, there is the NFC West defense bogeyman. ARI was middle of the pack against the run in 2014, on paper not sure they look better. Also, SF has lost more collective talent between coaching, starters and depth on both sides of the ball as any team in recent memory. The Rams were top 5 against the run in the second half of the season, but I would never make a decision about adding a player contingent on a few opponents. I don't think this has much relevance even in redraft (and find it an overblown concern), but obviously none in dynasty.
Only Justin Forsett had a higher Y/C average among RBs with 100+ carries.
Only Marshawn Lynch and Eddie Lacy had more rushing TDs (despite Hill not being featured until the second half of the season).
Only three rookies have rushed for more yards with a higher Y/C average in the past 40 years - Barry Sanders, Clinton Portis and Adrian Peterson.
In the Hill thread, it was pointed out that the list of RBs with seasons of more than four games with 145+ rushing is filled with Hall of Fame caliber RBs (none were rookies, all did it with significantly more carries, and most took 4-5-6 seasons before accomplishing it - only a few backs did it more than once, I think Barry Sanders and O.J. Simpson were two of them). Hill flat out had a historically great rookie season for a RB by several metrics, despite the half season handicap.
It appears that some of the same mistakes in the Hill thread last year continue to be perpetuated here. The Bernard bogeyman was invoked last year. Hill decisively outplayed him in the second half, and even when they were both healthy during that time, Hill was busier with approx a 18-9 edge in carries (18 X 16 = 288 carries). Bernard is a talented receiving, third down and COP back, but he is very average between the tackles as an inside runner. Hill has already established himself as by far the more gifted pure runner, don't see Hue Jackson flipping the script on second half usage. There will be games when Hill has less than 18 carries if they fall behind (but that is where a healthy A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert could help, not hurt Hill, to stay on schedule by enabling the offense as a whole to be more competitive and consistent on a weekly basis, get him in the red zone and put him in position to score more rushing TDs, etc.), but they could be balanced by games where he gets more if he is on a roll. It is almost like the second half of last season didn't happen, and the same Bernard warnings are being invoked in spite of that. Looking forward, Hill is one of the best young backs in the league, and looks like the centerpiece of the offense, surpassing even Green.
Not too many RBs played against a murderers row of top dozen team run defenses, every RB faces some soft defenses. Also in the Hill thread, it was earlier pointed out that one of the best ways to refute this concern was to point out that when looking at COMPARBLE OPPONENTS, Hill did better than other top backs, in amassing those four 145+ yard rushing games in basically a half season. His Y/C average is daunting and a high bar to repeat, but it isn't an accident that he did it, with 60 and 85 yard rushing TDs. He is a great combo of size (nearly 240 lbs.), tackle breaking power and contact balance, outstanding vision, instincts, patience, timing and sense of unfolding downfield blocking lanes, the feet and agility of a much smaller runner and the burst and long speed to score from anywhere on the field at any time. He will have some long runs this year, too. He doesn't need to have as high a Y/C average if he makes up for it in part with higher volume in the 275+ carry range (about 17 carries per game average).
Lastly, there is the NFC West defense bogeyman. ARI was middle of the pack against the run in 2014, on paper not sure they look better. Also, SF has lost more collective talent between coaching, starters and depth on both sides of the ball as any team in recent memory. The Rams were top 5 against the run in the second half of the season, but I would never make a decision about adding a player contingent on a few opponents. I don't think this has much relevance even in redraft (and find it an overblown concern), but obviously none in dynasty.
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TripItUp
Footballguy
I could see Ball straight up beating CJ out for the starting job if CJ starts slow in the beginning of the season.
With backs you never know when the light clicks...Ingram is an example.
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Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
I am not worried about Gio. I owned both last year and watched a lot of Bengals games. Gio is not as good. It is not even close. I see a 70/30 split this year with Gio being ff relevant only because he will catch a fair amount of passes.
Meatwad Reloaded
Footballguy
Great work here. Everything is completely on point. People drafting at the turn will be big winners if they correctly process this post.
Chaka
Footballguy
If you look at the history of RB use under Marvin Lewis, there are no RBBCs. The only times there appears to be one is one is when the better RB is a rookie or someone gets injured. Most of the time, the lead RB (between the top two) gets more than 70% of the carries and many times, it's an 80-90% share.
This won't be a 60/40 split this year. It will be more like the last 3 games of the season, closer to 75/25. The only time you'll see a 60/40 split is in a game like week 15, a 30-0 blowout of Cleveland.
This won't be a 60/40 split this year. It will be more like the last 3 games of the season, closer to 75/25. The only time you'll see a 60/40 split is in a game like week 15, a 30-0 blowout of Cleveland.
Chaka
Footballguy
I'll look into that. Hue Jackson OTOH has been almost exclusively a RBBC guy, sometimes due to lack of talent otherwise just to #### off fantasy owners.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
So it probably won't be a 60/40 split, but if Hill's number is higher, that goes in the plus side of his ledger for his 2015 projection.Hill had 222 carries as a rookie, 50 of which were in the first seven games, leaving 172 in the final nine games. That breaks down to almost exactly 7 carries per game pre-breakout, and 19 carries per game post-breakout. Big difference. Simply extrapolating a rough approximation of Hill's 2014 carries (and his split with Bernard) for 2015, as noted in the above, completely ignores the fact that CIN isn't likely to give Hill the mere 50 carries he had in the nearly first half of his rookie season. If not exactly the same, his usage (and split with Bernard) should be a lot more like the second half of the season. Like, you know, when he decisively outplayed Bernard, led the NFL in rushing yards and Y/C average and had one of the best second half rookie seasons for a RB in league history. If so, projections "informed" by the set of conditions in the first half of the season, now rendered obsolete by his second half, could be, and almost certainly are, monstrously irrelevant.
I haven't seen the quotes you are referring to, but am interested in what was said. Coaches sometimes say more than one thing. On 7/11, Jackson was quoted as saying Hill should embrace the talk of stardom. Doesn't scream an intention to put the damper on/throttle back his work load? IMO, it is possible for some to out-think themselves. You can be very logical, and wrong. Medieval astronomers had lots of clever solutions like epicycles which made perfect sense of the seemingly haphazard and irregular motions of the heavenly bodies - given the assumption that the Sun revolved around planet Earth. What if you hit the reset button, and use an alternate premise. What if he is what he looked like in the second half of the season, maybe the best young RB in the league, and based on some metrics, amassing some of the best rookie RB stats EVER (you say he beat up on soft defenses, but in those 145+ yard rushing games, look at what other top RBs did against those common opposing defenses, and you'll probably find virtually all of them weren't as productive). All teams use analytics these days, but who is in a better position to appreciate what they have in Hill than CIN. Maybe they will want to feed him. A lot. Ya think? Can you think of any compelling reasons why they wouldn't want to use him a lot, IF he is as good as he looked in the second half of the season (and why they would want to increase Bernard's usage as a runner, given how average he has been in his first two seasons)?
You have expressed scepticism that Hill will be anywhere near his Y/C average. Perhaps some regression should be expected, though this could be made up by increased volume. Take Tre Mason. He had around an 85+ yard run against the Raiders that looked like a broken play, and was perhaps a bit flukish and potentially misleading, in raising his rookie season Y/C average from 3.8 to 4.3, just on that one play. When looking at Hill's 60 and 85 yard runs, they didn't look flukish. He made defenders miss, read his blocks, picked the right lanes, ran away from closing defenders. If big plays are a numbers game, a higher workload for the full season instead of just half should give him more opportunity for additional big plays. More work can sometimes lead to more injury risk, but in the absence of evidence of being brittle/fragile, currently there is nothing to suggest that he isn't as capable as any RB in the league of handling 17-18 carries per game (which would get him to 275-290).
The return to health of Green and Eifert isn't NECESSARILY a bad thing for Hill, though you seem capable of interpreting this only and purely in negative terms. Sure, there might be some plays they throw to one or the other receiving weapons that might otherwise have been called a run for him. But just a few obvious potential positives, off the top of my head - if opposing defenses are distracted by the presence of Green and Eifert, that could create bigger creases for Hill to run through, a more competent and productive passing leading to more first downs, and longer and more sustained drives could equate to more OVERALL plays and red zone scoring opps (a slightly smaller piece of a bigger pie could still lead to larger number of carries year over year). Sometimes top RBs come from teams with weak passing games, like MIN and KC, but sometimes RBs like Bell and Lacy can thrive on teams with potent passing games - Antonio Brown was the #1 WR, Nelson and Cobb both top 5-10 depending on scoring format.
Leaving aside the 60/40 split which may well be spurious, and since we don't get fantasy points for individual/team rush split and distribution stats, Hill. Absolutely. Could. Hit. 275. To. 280+. Carries. It does not require an injury to Bernard, as Hill decisively out-carried him even when he returned to health in the second half of the season. It does not require a dramatic reduction of work for Bernard - he already saw that reduction in the second half of the season. Nothing more is needed here than not completely ignoring that their relative stations already dramatically changed last year. Bernard's numbers put up when he was starting in the first half won't matter, if he no longer is starting. Nor will Hill's from the time before he started, now that he is the feature RB.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Already pointed out, but CIN doesn't have to have anywhere near 600 rushes for Hill to get in the 275-290 neighborhood. About 17-18 carries per game would do it. About what he did in the second half last year, once he became the starter, even when Bernard had returned. Your take is indistinguishable from somebody who had Sunday ticket cancelled after week seven, went on a two month plus cave exploration and didn't see another game the rest of the season. It is as if the second half of the season didn't happen?Freelove said:Dalton pretty much always has 50+ carries. 60+ the last two years. Is this news to people? If the team runs 500 times again, we're looking at somewhere in the neighborhood of 400 carries for the RB's to split. And remember, this was already one of the run-heaviest offenses in football. If we're basing our projections on last year's offense, except skewed a bit to account for much improved health to numerous passing game weapons, there's just no way to get Hill to the kind of workload the optimists in this thread are hoping for.ghostguy123 said:
Tau837
Footballguy
Offensive splits with Hue Jackson as OC:
2014: 503 passing attempts, 492 rushing attempts (414 RB rushing attempts)
2013: 587 passing attempts, 481 rushing attempts (397 RB rushing attempts)
Offensive rankings:
2014: 15th in points scored, 15th in offensive yards
2013: 6th in points scored, 10th in offensive yards
Cincy's 2014 offense also ranked worse in average time of possession per drive, plays per drive, yards per drive, and points per drive than in 2013.
So, did the radical drop in pass attempts and balancing of the pass/run ratio in 2014 occur by preference, or was it driven by circumstances, namely injuries to Green, Sanu, Eifert, and Bernard? IMO it was the latter, i.e., it did not happen by choice. Now we have heard Hue Jackson specifically say they plan to open the offense back up this year, which further reinforces that their preference is to pass more than they did last season.
Comparing to the 2013 offense, if they remain healthy, Green, Sanu, Eifert, and Bernard should all be as good or better in 2015 as in 2013. So it seems reasonable to look at 2013 as a starting point for projections. However, the Bengals have now seen Hill excel, so that will be an influence. I'd project 540 pass attempts and 500 rushing attempts, which should break down something like this:
250 Hill
150 Bernard
30 Other RBs
10 WRs
60 QBs (Dalton has had 60 and 61 the past two seasons)
That breakdown assumes full health for everyone, but we can't predict whatever injuries may happen. Reasons this breakdown may be optimistic for Hill:
1. Hill may not stay fully healthy. No way to know.
2. The team could easily have fewer than 500 total rushing attempts, which would probably drop the RB rushing attempts. IMO this is likely.
3. The RBs could easily have fewer than 420 total rushing attempts, since they haven't reached that number yet under Jackson and only reached it twice in Lewis's 12 year history as Bengals HC (423 RB rushing attempts in 2003 and 450 RB rushing attempts in 2009). As the lead rusher, any reduction will impact Hill the most. IMO this is possible.
4. Bernard could have more than 150 rushing attempts. He has had 170 and 168 rushing attempts in his 2 seasons. IMO this is likely.
5. Players other than Hill and Bernard could have more than 100 carries. Last season, they had 102. IMO this is possible.
Reasons this breakdown may be pessimistic for Hill:
1. Bernard could get hurt again. This is certainly possible, but I'm not sure it is any more likely than Hill himself getting hurt.
2. Bernard could stay healthy but have his rushing attempts cut more than I project and shifted to Hill. IMO this is possible but unlikely.
3. The top 4 receiving targets could all get hurt again. Or maybe even the top 5 or 6 (though Hill himself might fit in as #5 or #6...). IMO there is virtually no chance of this.
4. The Bengals could go against their prior success and their stated intentions for this season and skew even more toward running, giving the RBs significantly more rushing attempts than last season. IMO this is very unlikely.
5. Players other than Hill, Bernard, and Dalton could get fewer rushing attempts than the 40 I projected above. (Dalton doesn't count here, since the majority of his runs are scrambles, and thus not subject to instead handing off.) This is possible, but, even if so, the difference should be minimal.
All of this is just focused on how many rushing attempts to project for Hill. IMO taking all this into account, I'd probably project something like 240 rushing attempts x 4.8 ypc = 1152 rushing yards. Add in some modest receiving yards and a solid but unremarkable TD total, e.g., 10, and IMO Hill should definitely be taken after Anderson.
2014: 503 passing attempts, 492 rushing attempts (414 RB rushing attempts)
2013: 587 passing attempts, 481 rushing attempts (397 RB rushing attempts)
Offensive rankings:
2014: 15th in points scored, 15th in offensive yards
2013: 6th in points scored, 10th in offensive yards
Cincy's 2014 offense also ranked worse in average time of possession per drive, plays per drive, yards per drive, and points per drive than in 2013.
So, did the radical drop in pass attempts and balancing of the pass/run ratio in 2014 occur by preference, or was it driven by circumstances, namely injuries to Green, Sanu, Eifert, and Bernard? IMO it was the latter, i.e., it did not happen by choice. Now we have heard Hue Jackson specifically say they plan to open the offense back up this year, which further reinforces that their preference is to pass more than they did last season.
Comparing to the 2013 offense, if they remain healthy, Green, Sanu, Eifert, and Bernard should all be as good or better in 2015 as in 2013. So it seems reasonable to look at 2013 as a starting point for projections. However, the Bengals have now seen Hill excel, so that will be an influence. I'd project 540 pass attempts and 500 rushing attempts, which should break down something like this:
250 Hill
150 Bernard
30 Other RBs
10 WRs
60 QBs (Dalton has had 60 and 61 the past two seasons)
That breakdown assumes full health for everyone, but we can't predict whatever injuries may happen. Reasons this breakdown may be optimistic for Hill:
1. Hill may not stay fully healthy. No way to know.
2. The team could easily have fewer than 500 total rushing attempts, which would probably drop the RB rushing attempts. IMO this is likely.
3. The RBs could easily have fewer than 420 total rushing attempts, since they haven't reached that number yet under Jackson and only reached it twice in Lewis's 12 year history as Bengals HC (423 RB rushing attempts in 2003 and 450 RB rushing attempts in 2009). As the lead rusher, any reduction will impact Hill the most. IMO this is possible.
4. Bernard could have more than 150 rushing attempts. He has had 170 and 168 rushing attempts in his 2 seasons. IMO this is likely.
5. Players other than Hill and Bernard could have more than 100 carries. Last season, they had 102. IMO this is possible.
Reasons this breakdown may be pessimistic for Hill:
1. Bernard could get hurt again. This is certainly possible, but I'm not sure it is any more likely than Hill himself getting hurt.
2. Bernard could stay healthy but have his rushing attempts cut more than I project and shifted to Hill. IMO this is possible but unlikely.
3. The top 4 receiving targets could all get hurt again. Or maybe even the top 5 or 6 (though Hill himself might fit in as #5 or #6...). IMO there is virtually no chance of this.
4. The Bengals could go against their prior success and their stated intentions for this season and skew even more toward running, giving the RBs significantly more rushing attempts than last season. IMO this is very unlikely.
5. Players other than Hill, Bernard, and Dalton could get fewer rushing attempts than the 40 I projected above. (Dalton doesn't count here, since the majority of his runs are scrambles, and thus not subject to instead handing off.) This is possible, but, even if so, the difference should be minimal.
All of this is just focused on how many rushing attempts to project for Hill. IMO taking all this into account, I'd probably project something like 240 rushing attempts x 4.8 ypc = 1152 rushing yards. Add in some modest receiving yards and a solid but unremarkable TD total, e.g., 10, and IMO Hill should definitely be taken after Anderson.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Hills not getting 250 carries.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If there is a 70/30 split between Hill and Gio, I think that means Hill gets 280 carries.Chaka said:
There, hopefully things are cleared up
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Will Hill get 5.4 YPC?? Probably not
Will he get a lot more carries than he had last year? yes.
Any negative you can say about him can be said about every other RB in the league with the exception of maybe Bell and AP for this year.
Will he get a lot more carries than he had last year? yes.
Any negative you can say about him can be said about every other RB in the league with the exception of maybe Bell and AP for this year.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Hill had a perfect storm last season.
RBM
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
so what about that storm is changing?
Do you really think they will let Dalton air it out 40 times a game?
Sabertooth
Footballguy
There is nothing more constant in the NFL than change.
jurb26
Footballguy
Hue has a pretty consistent history of running the ball around 48% of the time. This was referenced somewhere in the Hill thread. I see no reason that would suddenly change. In the scheme of the NFL today that's a pretty heAlthy balance and actually skewed a bit tears the run. They will certainly take shots in the passing game and Green/Effert will help that, but I see no reason for Cinci to go pass-centric this year. This is a pretty loaded team. Hill will have over 260 carries if healthy.Offensive splits with Hue Jackson as OC:
2014: 503 passing attempts, 492 rushing attempts (414 RB rushing attempts)
2013: 587 passing attempts, 481 rushing attempts (397 RB rushing attempts)
Offensive rankings:
2014: 15th in points scored, 15th in offensive yards
2013: 6th in points scored, 10th in offensive yards
Cincy's 2014 offense also ranked worse in average time of possession per drive, plays per drive, yards per drive, and points per drive than in 2013.
So, did the radical drop in pass attempts and balancing of the pass/run ratio in 2014 occur by preference, or was it driven by circumstances, namely injuries to Green, Sanu, Eifert, and Bernard? IMO it was the latter, i.e., it did not happen by choice. Now we have heard Hue Jackson specifically say they plan to open the offense back up this year, which further reinforces that their preference is to pass more than they did last season.
Comparing to the 2013 offense, if they remain healthy, Green, Sanu, Eifert, and Bernard should all be as good or better in 2015 as in 2013. So it seems reasonable to look at 2013 as a starting point for projections. However, the Bengals have now seen Hill excel, so that will be an influence. I'd project 540 pass attempts and 500 rushing attempts, which should break down something like this:
250 Hill
150 Bernard
30 Other RBs
10 WRs
60 QBs (Dalton has had 60 and 61 the past two seasons)
That breakdown assumes full health for everyone, but we can't predict whatever injuries may happen. Reasons this breakdown may be optimistic for Hill:
1. Hill may not stay fully healthy. No way to know.
2. The team could easily have fewer than 500 total rushing attempts, which would probably drop the RB rushing attempts. IMO this is likely.
3. The RBs could easily have fewer than 420 total rushing attempts, since they haven't reached that number yet under Jackson and only reached it twice in Lewis's 12 year history as Bengals HC (423 RB rushing attempts in 2003 and 450 RB rushing attempts in 2009). As the lead rusher, any reduction will impact Hill the most. IMO this is possible.
4. Bernard could have more than 150 rushing attempts. He has had 170 and 168 rushing attempts in his 2 seasons. IMO this is likely.
5. Players other than Hill and Bernard could have more than 100 carries. Last season, they had 102. IMO this is possible.
Reasons this breakdown may be pessimistic for Hill:
1. Bernard could get hurt again. This is certainly possible, but I'm not sure it is any more likely than Hill himself getting hurt.
2. Bernard could stay healthy but have his rushing attempts cut more than I project and shifted to Hill. IMO this is possible but unlikely.
3. The top 4 receiving targets could all get hurt again. Or maybe even the top 5 or 6 (though Hill himself might fit in as #5 or #6...). IMO there is virtually no chance of this.
4. The Bengals could go against their prior success and their stated intentions for this season and skew even more toward running, giving the RBs significantly more rushing attempts than last season. IMO this is very unlikely.
5. Players other than Hill, Bernard, and Dalton could get fewer rushing attempts than the 40 I projected above. (Dalton doesn't count here, since the majority of his runs are scrambles, and thus not subject to instead handing off.) This is possible, but, even if so, the difference should be minimal.
All of this is just focused on how many rushing attempts to project for Hill. IMO taking all this into account, I'd probably project something like 240 rushing attempts x 4.8 ypc = 1152 rushing yards. Add in some modest receiving yards and a solid but unremarkable TD total, e.g., 10, and IMO Hill should definitely be taken after Anderson.
