Finally catching up with some post-draft UDFA profiles and thought I'd tackle CJ Anderson here.
Like I said above, Anderson is someone that I completely missed pre-draft, missed post-draft, missed during OTAs and missed during mini-camp. In fact, he wasn't on my radar at all until the Denver v San Francisco pre-season game. But when I finally got around to plugging him into the RB model I liked what I saw quite a bit. Especially in terms of value and opportunity vs cost.
The biggest knock on Anderson is that he's an UDFA, but the "why" story here -- small school transfer to Cal to be part of a time share -- is a good one IMO. With only 72 touches his first year in Division I football Anderson couldn't have been further under the radar. And he was in a timeshare his senior year as well -- despite outperforming the other back. The NFL is skittish about using picks on relative unknowns and guys with so few NCAA touches.
In terms of finding comparables let's start with his relevant measurables (
see here for more info):
Rushing and Receiving Vision: good+/outstanding+ (most likely inflated by limited touches/niche role)
Height: 68 1/8"
Size: 224 pounds/+1.49 adjusted size (big)
Speed: 4.53/+.30 (average size-adjusted speed)
Explosion: 32" vert, 119" broad (average for his size -- not explosive)
In terms of both size and explosion, Anderson benefits from being short. His considerable weight is more compact than most players, which allows him to bring more of it bear in a collision, and less is expected of bowling ball builds when it comes to the jumps.
In addition it turns out that good vision, average speed and acceptable explosion in a guy this big is a useful combination for an NFL back. Who else has a similar mix of abilities? It's a nice list for an UDFA.
Here are the players 5'10.5" or less who qualify as Big, have at least average rushing vision, but don't have elite speed or explosion (organized by the rushing metric):
Vick Ballard
C.J. Anderson
Onterrio Smith
Cedric Benson
Travis Henry
--Ballard is a borderline guy on this list. At 219 on the nose he barely qualifies as Big and his explosion numbers are suspect as well. He makes up for it with truly exceptional vision. If he were five pounds heavier and even slightly more explosive his prospects would be much better.
--Onterrio Smith had a successful NFL career and literally pissed it away. But his on-field performance in a limited role during his first two years as a pro was strong (4.9/carry, 10.3/catch).
--Cedric Benson may be Anderson's best comparable, except that Benson had 1100 high-profile touches in the NCAA and was a known commodity. Again though, Benson's NFL career looks a lot more like you'd expect from his inclusion on this list than it looks like the average career of a #4 pick.
--Like O. Smith, Henry's off-field exploits got in the way of a successful NFL career -- he had over 1500 yards from scrimmage in both his 2nd and 3rd NFL seasons before the wheels started to wobble and then came off.
Worth noting is that Anderson may be a better receiver than anyone else on the list of comps above. His receiving measure is outstanding. It's helped by having a 78 yard TD as part of a limited sample to be sure, but even without the long TD his receiving measure is strong.
Summing all this up, it's not surprising that Anderson flashed in camp and the pre-season. Per his profile he's a pretty decent RB prospect despite his limited opportunity in major conference NCAA football. There's a long way to go now that he's injured, and whether he can stand up to an ongoing NFL pounding is a bigger question for him than most since he didn't do it at Cal either, but if he can stay healthy and make the roster it wouldn't be surprising to see Anderson eventually emerge as the starter. Especially given that none of the other backs in Denver have seized the role. And FWIW,
the RB model hates Ball as an NFL starter (he projects as Vick Ballard lite).