The guy just accepted my Martin for Spiller offer. I'm happy because I watched Martin against Carolina. He's just ok to me and didn't seem to live up to the preseason hype.
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CJ spiller value (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Nickdi
- Start date
John Paul
Footballguy
I drafted Spiller late in all three of my drafts. Turned out being an 8th, 9th and 10th rounder. He is immensely talented and now I get to enjoy the ride. He will blow up this year. He has the speed, agility and strength to take this to the end. Frankly, it would be almost impossible to get him from me.
I drafted RBs later and this is one of my coup de gras since I got the talent at other positions. Trading him would only weaken my teams. 2012 is going to be fun!
I drafted RBs later and this is one of my coup de gras since I got the talent at other positions. Trading him would only weaken my teams. 2012 is going to be fun!
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Big Spiller fan, and I would've dumped him all day long for Martin. Spiller could still be in a RBBC in a few weeks, Martin looks like he'll be the main guy all season. I think that trade was a mistake.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Why is that exactly? Schedule? Skill set? Better surrounding team? Better O-Line? And it's so much beter that if it's a committee in 6 weeks that it will be worth it?BTW, I'm a Spiller/FJax owner. I'm sorry someone got hurt, but that injury is good for my fantasy team. I hope that Spiller can keep FJax on the bench when the guy is healthy, but the guy was a beast last year and beat the kid out in training camp. He could do it again.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
getting Julio would make me do that even if I have to move McCoy. is it ppr?
Buck Stop
Footballguy
Yes, but man that is NOT cheap.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Right McCoy is better than Spiller no doubt and has a way more clear roleMost people have Julio as the #2 WR, period
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I would stand pat on the McCoy side of the trade.
look at how spiller produced last yr without fjax. and i said 6 weeks bc i really dont see fjax coming back sooner.7
16
6
29
20
16
25 (week 1 this yr)
seems pretty damn legit to me, whereas doug martin is very unproven. i hate to say things like this bc im no lol scout, but spiller has looked electric and threatening whereas martin looked about as meh as they come in week 1.
i got martin on a few teams and would love to move him for spiller. i liked the prospect of a 3 down back with little competition. i didnt like the value of fjax or spiller at their adps given their situations, but this risk has payed off.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Trying to lever a Top 15 receiver from WR-rich/RB-poor teams in a 14-team small money league I joined just to get a feel for draft value/ADP before my main money 14-team league draft.
Targeting Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, AJ Green, and Steve Smith.
Before you say, "Who in their right mind would give up those guys for CJ straight up," this is a PPR league that also switched to awarding points per RB carry this year. I am not sure if the people in the league realized just how much more valuable that system made RBs from a VBD basis comparative to other positions.
People scrambled for Top 3 QBs, stud WRs and TEs early, but the value to me at RB at the #3 slot was ridiculous. I went RB-RB-RB in first three rounds. I am able to start 2 RBs and 2 RB/WR/TE each week, so most weeks I am able to trot out the starting line up of LeSean McCoy, SJAX, Doug Martin and DeMarco Murray. Ridiculous.
This left me a little weak at other positions, notably TE (Jared Cook) and WR, with Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown, Denarius Moore, Britt and Stephen Hill. Not shabby, but a stud WR would, I feel, essentially win me this league hands down.
Guys who own some of the Top 15 WRs are in need of backs. The guy who owns both AJ and Julio Jones has to start Hillis and Beanie Wells; the Demaryius Thomas owner also has Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Bowe, but starts Leon Washington and Danny Woodhead until Ryan Matthews is healthy. FJAX owner also has Trent Richardson, but only one other back on his squad (LeShoure) has Fitz, Floyd and Garcon.
Given that other GMs are realizing after WK1 the potential of RB2 and flex RB3s, I think I may actually be able to pull off a CJ for a top 15 WR.
Targeting Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, AJ Green, and Steve Smith.
Before you say, "Who in their right mind would give up those guys for CJ straight up," this is a PPR league that also switched to awarding points per RB carry this year. I am not sure if the people in the league realized just how much more valuable that system made RBs from a VBD basis comparative to other positions.
People scrambled for Top 3 QBs, stud WRs and TEs early, but the value to me at RB at the #3 slot was ridiculous. I went RB-RB-RB in first three rounds. I am able to start 2 RBs and 2 RB/WR/TE each week, so most weeks I am able to trot out the starting line up of LeSean McCoy, SJAX, Doug Martin and DeMarco Murray. Ridiculous.
This left me a little weak at other positions, notably TE (Jared Cook) and WR, with Torrey Smith, Antonio Brown, Denarius Moore, Britt and Stephen Hill. Not shabby, but a stud WR would, I feel, essentially win me this league hands down.
Guys who own some of the Top 15 WRs are in need of backs. The guy who owns both AJ and Julio Jones has to start Hillis and Beanie Wells; the Demaryius Thomas owner also has Brandon Marshall and Dwayne Bowe, but starts Leon Washington and Danny Woodhead until Ryan Matthews is healthy. FJAX owner also has Trent Richardson, but only one other back on his squad (LeShoure) has Fitz, Floyd and Garcon.
Given that other GMs are realizing after WK1 the potential of RB2 and flex RB3s, I think I may actually be able to pull off a CJ for a top 15 WR.
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Ghost Rider
Footballguy
People who make offers like that should be laughed at. In their faces.'Nucker101 said:
Nucker101
Footballguy
I don't really think it's that ridiculous of an offer. I actually wrote that wrong. He offered me his Spiller and L.Moore for my Steven Jackson after I sent him an email asking me what he would want for Spiller.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
OMG, you should have taken that offer before he wised up and realized he was ripping himself off.
Nucker101
Footballguy
It's still an official offer and on the table before kickoff tomorrow. I don't see how it's a no-brainer with F-Jax potentially returning in 4 weeks. I am considering it since I do believe that Spiller has as much upside as any rb in the league when he's the main back and I have concerns about the Rams O-Line. Not sure how it's an obvious win for me though. Didn't mean to turn this into an AC thread, sorry fellas.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I just watched a replay of the the game. Spiller is hands down a top 5 RB. Good god.
RUSF18
Footballguy
Probably because many here are very, very skeptical about 1) Jackson actually returning in 4 weeks and 2) Jackson being able to hold off Spiller once he does get back. A 31 year old RB (I know that he doesn't have the usual wear and tear) who now has two major injuries to the same leg within a year, I just don't see it. IMO, at worst you'll be able to use Spiller as a flex once Jackson returns, and in the meantime you get improved production over Jackson over the next four weeks.
smapdi
Footballguy
Exactly. Anyone that actually watched the game would realize what a STUD Spiller is going to be. Just go back and watch his last 6 starts (all due to FJax injury). He's been unreal in that span. I believe he is at 6.8 yards per carry over the last 6. I keep reading people saying he got all these yards against the Jets in "garbage time". That is total ignorance and bull. Spiller ripped off his 56 yard TD just minutes after FJax left the game when it was still very much a game at 21-0 in the 2nd quarter. The Jets were not in a prevent defense. They didn't have 11 defensive backs on the field against the Bills jumbo package. Spiller went to work and broke a couple tackles on that run. He completely powered through Bart Scott's attempt at a tackle/strip. The Jets have one of the best defenses in the league and Spiller picked them apart. Spiller has really transformed his game since he came into league. He is running with a lot of power now (8 broken tackles on 16 carries; led NFL) and is in elite physical condition. He is alot more patient now; he waits for his blocks to develop and when he needs to press/hit hole immediately. Worrying about his touches is legitimate when FJax is around but not now. It is 100% Spiller's job. The bottom line is that when he has received a decent amount of touches, he has produced. Start him with confidence.
Exactly. Smart fantasy owners aren't going to trade a three down back who, barring injury, will be the starter all yaer, for a guy who should have four or five solid weeks and then become a role player. If the news on F. Jackson gets worse, then Spiller's value obviously goes up. Until then, there are way too many question marks surrounding him.'Concept Coop said:
smapdi
Footballguy
I can guarantee you that Spiller crushes Martin over the next 6 weeks though. I'm thinking that Spiller puts up RB1 numbers pretty easily in that span. As another poster pointed out, points today are worth far more then possible points 6 weeks down the road. Net present value my friends. A dollar today is worth more then a dollar tomorrow.
I'm a big FJax fan as well but he is now 31 years old coming 2 straight leg injuries. He missed the last 6 weeks last year and then gets injured again 1 quarter into the new season. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Fjax's age is starting to catch up to him. He didn't look like the FJax of old in pre-season and the carries he had against the Jets.
I would jump all over Spiller if you can get him. I would buy him for much more then Doug Martin at this point. Because next week, the Spiller owner will laugh at you if you offer Doug Martin after the performance he puts up against a banged KC defense.
I'm a big FJax fan as well but he is now 31 years old coming 2 straight leg injuries. He missed the last 6 weeks last year and then gets injured again 1 quarter into the new season. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Fjax's age is starting to catch up to him. He didn't look like the FJax of old in pre-season and the carries he had against the Jets.
I would jump all over Spiller if you can get him. I would buy him for much more then Doug Martin at this point. Because next week, the Spiller owner will laugh at you if you offer Doug Martin after the performance he puts up against a banged KC defense.
JPeso
Footballguy
Let's see here. Top 5 (top 10-12 to market, we'll say) dynasty RB acquired for Jennings/Moore = steal. McCoy and Julio are a wash. What am I missing here?ETA: Top 10-12 for market will be after Spiller continues to do work. I understand his market value in PPR dynasty is currently still probably RB16 or so. Not for long.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Any talk of Spiller losing a training camp battle with Jackson is just silly. There was no competition. Jackson was the best RB in the league until he got hurt last year. Gailey isn't the type of guy to let a productive vet lose his job due to injury. Jackson came back fully healthy and looked good to go. So Jackson was going to be the #1 and starter no matter what.
What Gailey did say, was the they were going to need to find a way to get Spiller involved more. That probably meant a few more touches compared to what he had last year when Jackson was healthy, and Spiller lining up as a WR some as well.
The thing is, there were really 3 small deficiencies in Spiller's game:
1) Pass blocking. He wasn't terrible at it, but wasn't great either. He has gotten a LOT better at it over the last year and it really isn't a problem for him anymore. He's probably still a notch under Jackson (who is one of the best, if not THE best pass blocking RB in the league), but he's not going to get the QB killed either.
2) Breaking tackles. Jackson is tremendous at breaking tackles. One of the best in the league. It's one of the reasons he's such a great inside runner. Well, from the looks of the first game and how many tackles Spiller broke, I'd say he's right up there with Jackson now. He ran with a tremendous amount of power. Not simple arm tackle is going to take him down.
3) Patience. One of the things that makes Fred Jackson such a great inside runner is that he's got patience and vision. Spiller ran up the backs of this linemen way too often and never let the holes developed. He's made huge strides in that area though and you don't see him making those types of mistakes anymore. He waits for the hole to develop and then is just gone.
I said before the season that Jackson would be the man. But if Spiller plays like he did at the end of last year and last week while Jackson is out, I'm not 100% sure that will be the case when Jackson gets back this time.
IMO, when Spiller has had the chance to be "the man" now, he'd flat out been the most dynamic RB in the league. Jackson may have some small advantages still in pass blocking and breaking tackles, but he can't come close to the sheer explosiveness of Spiller. And I think Spiller is showing that he's made up enough ground in those other areas that there's no overriding benefit to keeping Jackson the starter. I think regardless as to who is the starter eventually when Jackson comes back, Spiller will see quite a few touches. I do think Jackson will still be involved, and perhaps fairly significantly, but I think Spiller will get enough touches to make him at least a #2 RB even when Jackson returns.
Until then, I see Spiller as a top 5 RB and potentially the best in the game.
ETA: One last thing, I think it's unfair to blame age for either of Freddie's injuries. They were both freak injuries from awkward hits. It's not like he pulled a muscle or tore an ACL while not even being touched. Those same injuries would have happened to any other RB in the league if they were hit like that. The biggest question regarding his age and the injuries is whether his age affects his recovery time and whether or not it affects his burst/speed.
What Gailey did say, was the they were going to need to find a way to get Spiller involved more. That probably meant a few more touches compared to what he had last year when Jackson was healthy, and Spiller lining up as a WR some as well.
The thing is, there were really 3 small deficiencies in Spiller's game:
1) Pass blocking. He wasn't terrible at it, but wasn't great either. He has gotten a LOT better at it over the last year and it really isn't a problem for him anymore. He's probably still a notch under Jackson (who is one of the best, if not THE best pass blocking RB in the league), but he's not going to get the QB killed either.
2) Breaking tackles. Jackson is tremendous at breaking tackles. One of the best in the league. It's one of the reasons he's such a great inside runner. Well, from the looks of the first game and how many tackles Spiller broke, I'd say he's right up there with Jackson now. He ran with a tremendous amount of power. Not simple arm tackle is going to take him down.
3) Patience. One of the things that makes Fred Jackson such a great inside runner is that he's got patience and vision. Spiller ran up the backs of this linemen way too often and never let the holes developed. He's made huge strides in that area though and you don't see him making those types of mistakes anymore. He waits for the hole to develop and then is just gone.
I said before the season that Jackson would be the man. But if Spiller plays like he did at the end of last year and last week while Jackson is out, I'm not 100% sure that will be the case when Jackson gets back this time.
IMO, when Spiller has had the chance to be "the man" now, he'd flat out been the most dynamic RB in the league. Jackson may have some small advantages still in pass blocking and breaking tackles, but he can't come close to the sheer explosiveness of Spiller. And I think Spiller is showing that he's made up enough ground in those other areas that there's no overriding benefit to keeping Jackson the starter. I think regardless as to who is the starter eventually when Jackson comes back, Spiller will see quite a few touches. I do think Jackson will still be involved, and perhaps fairly significantly, but I think Spiller will get enough touches to make him at least a #2 RB even when Jackson returns.
Until then, I see Spiller as a top 5 RB and potentially the best in the game.
ETA: One last thing, I think it's unfair to blame age for either of Freddie's injuries. They were both freak injuries from awkward hits. It's not like he pulled a muscle or tore an ACL while not even being touched. Those same injuries would have happened to any other RB in the league if they were hit like that. The biggest question regarding his age and the injuries is whether his age affects his recovery time and whether or not it affects his burst/speed.
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Trading SJax for Spiller is a GAMBLE, but I'd make the trade. I'm in multiple leagues, so I not afraid to take bigger risks if the potential payoff is high. I have a feeling that the news on FJax is going to get worse over the next couple weeks, which will make Spiller all but ununtouchable. A starting CJ Spiller is the type of player who can win your league. A starting SJax is a mediocre RB2 who will get you 10 points most weeks, but not much else. Lance Moore is gravy, and I won't be surprised if he finishes with 8 TDs for the 3rd straight year.
This is a play to win trade, and I think you should make it.
This is a play to win trade, and I think you should make it.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
I see that and you see that, but the coaching staff is seeing something else. Spiller was awesome down the stretch yet FJax was the starter week 1. There's a loyalty here that you and I don't understand but its there. This no slam.dunk. Given FJax' age and injury history, it will likely be sooner rather than later but if he is healthy he is getting carries.'cvnpoka said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Spiller is not a top 5 dynasty back and McCoy is still worth more than Julio, in most formats. VORP dictates that HUGE value be placed on a young, proven, elite RB. While Julio is a top 2 WR, his advantage over the next tier is much smaller than Shady's, compared to the next tier of RBs. And Spiller for Jennings/Moore is not a steal. Very fair. Why treat Spiller as a top 5 RB already? There is no margin for error in doing so. Market will dictate top 12 - why pay more than that? He is not going to eclipse that top 5 ranking this season, most likely, so why jump the gun? There is a very real chance that he doesn't reach that top 5 tag, too.
JPeso
Footballguy
I don't consider VORP in my valuations, nor do I even know what it stands for. All's I know is Julio is my #1 dynasty WR and has been - I put more a premium on his next 10 years over McCoy's next 5, and I love McCoy with most of my heart (Julio just with all of my heart). I suppose I like my ability to get the next McCoy in the 5th round of start-ups (or in an established league, buying lower-level RBs that will appreciate in value). Jennings/Moore for Spiller is very fair on market, I concur, but that doesn't mean there is not a CRYSTAL clear side I'd rather be on.Different strokes is all.
I'd say very even trade. McCoy is worth only slightly more than Julio IMO (#1 RB vs #2 WR), and Spiller for Jennings/Moore I'd take Spiller. A month ago, obviously not, but Jennings value is in free fall with the concussion, talk of possibility leaving next year, Cobb & James Jones nipping at his heals and now he's injured already. Moore is a very nice throw-in IMO, but still a throw-in.
JPeso
Footballguy
This is a whollllllle separate discussion but...I said the trade was fair. Very fair. This is the way you have to trade with owners who aren't asleep at the wheel - fair. Or if you have a strong team, less are willing to deal with you, you have to be fair or in most cases, overpay the market. This is an even market trade. But that's how you get ahead is by making market trades where you are forced to make a call. Some guys rely on rapes in trades to get ahead. But you cannot always do that and instead have to make trades where you lose on the market, or like the deal above, it's an even market trade. But you are making a call on the future. This is an even market trade with an edge to McCoy/Jennings/Moore. That doesn't mean you must follow the market and assume it's too expensive and thus not do the trade.
FWIW, in the 1 PPR dynasty league I own Spiller I have turned down:
BJGE + Ingram + Alfred Morris for Spiller
Kevin Smith + Finley + 2012 3rd for Spiller + Kyle Rudolph
Ryan Mathews + Floyd + Greg Little for Spiller + AJ Green + Amendola
Wish I owned him in more, but Peso is in a few of my leagues and had already snapped him up in most
Edit: Agreeing with on the fairness buddy.
BJGE + Ingram + Alfred Morris for Spiller
Kevin Smith + Finley + 2012 3rd for Spiller + Kyle Rudolph
Ryan Mathews + Floyd + Greg Little for Spiller + AJ Green + Amendola
Wish I owned him in more, but Peso is in a few of my leagues and had already snapped him up in most
Edit: Agreeing with on the fairness buddy.
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what does fjax being named the starter have to do with my prediction of spiller's production over the next 6 weeks?
Spiller will be especially big in leagues who have their playoffs in week five. So, if Spiller 'crushes' Martin over the next six weeks but get ten touches a game from that point on because FJax is back and producing like he did all of last season, I'm quite sure ther Martin owner will be happy he's still getting his 20+ touches a game from Martin. Especially come playoff time.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
So you think Jackson's injury is worse than they're reporting? Or that the four week break will suddenly make Spiller beat Jackson out as the starter, something he's never been able to do?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
#1 i though your comment was funny#2 I dont know what the clowns running Buffalo will do once freddy is back#3 I think Spiller is more talented and in the next 4 weeks or so will prove it, #4 the NFL teams need depth and dont care about having bell-cow backs, so IF, big IF IMO - if Freddy comes back at 100% in a month I think it will be a committee again, who gets the majority of carries? great unknown. I suspect Spiller will be getting a larger chunk of the committee then, and I also think Freddy will be injured again. He's old and his leg has been injured in the past 2 NFL games he played in. Im sure Buff will just give him 25 carries when he's back, right?So you think Jackson's injury is worse than they're reporting? Or that the four week break will suddenly make Spiller beat Jackson out as the starter, something he's never been able to do?
#1- Thanks#1 i though your comment was funny#2 I dont know what the clowns running Buffalo will do once freddy is back#3 I think Spiller is more talented and in the next 4 weeks or so will prove it, #4 the NFL teams need depth and dont care about having bell-cow backs, so IF, big IF IMO - if Freddy comes back at 100% in a month I think it will be a committee again, who gets the majority of carries? great unknown. I suspect Spiller will be getting a larger chunk of the committee then, and I also think Freddy will be injured again. He's old and his leg has been injured in the past 2 NFL games he played in. Im sure Buff will just give him 25 carries when he's back, right?So you think Jackson's injury is worse than they're reporting? Or that the four week break will suddenly make Spiller beat Jackson out as the starter, something he's never been able to do?
#2- It's pretty easy to see what the trend is when both backs are healthy#3- Ok, I guess that's where we differ. FJax was a top 5 back last year when he played. And he obviously impressed the coaches again this preseason, since he won the starting job. I guess we'll see.#4- I agree 100% Teams do need depth and Spiller is talented enough to get double digit touches even when both are healthy. But even if Spiller improves his position over last year and earns a 50/50 split when Jackson comes back, it still isn't comaparable to a solid, full-time, three down back like Martin will be all year (barring injury).
RUSF18
Footballguy
FWIW, the one league I have Spiller in I would say is more conservative, and I'm not getting any bites yet on trying to deal him for a top 12ish WR. People are waiting on more concrete news on Jackson, and probably want to see another week of legitimate performance. I'm in a bit of a tough spot because I can't start him based on lineup requirements (max 2 RBs, have Foster and McFadden) so he's got to sit. But at the same time, I think he could be a top 5 RB so while I'd be willing to take a bit of a discount on value, I'm not giving him away.
That's surprising. I've offered a bunch of low WR1s in various leagues for Spiller straight up and been rejected every time.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
See Jamaal Charles, 2010, in my opinion.
Nucker101
Footballguy
For sure. This is what makes it do hard to gauge Spiller's value. Is he still worth trading S-Jax or Martin for if F-Jax is back in 5 or 6 weeks and they split carries 50/50? I'm not so sure.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I own Stiller in my Dynasty league, and I'd trade him for Martin in a heartbeat.
Spiller > Martin in dynasty, especially if it's PPR. In non-PPR they are about equal.
RUSF18
Footballguy
The league I'm referring to is a work league, with government employees. Risk averse by nature.
