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CJ Spiller (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter HITMANMVP96
- Start date
Any talk about CJ Spiller "losing his job" any time soon is crazy. There is no doubt that he will play a major role as the big-play threat and eventually on passing downs. He may be an RB2 in PPR leagues already by the end of this season. Does anybody seriously believe Fred Jackson will be the primary ball carrier beyond 2011? When you get past troll posts and ulterior motives, I doubt it.
The fumbles issue is a non-issue. Many rookie fumble a lot, but eventually get the hang of it. There is no indication of Spiller being incapable of remedying the problem. The ypc debate is more interesting. What I wanted to know is whether Spiller really sucked in the same environment where F-Jax did marginally okay.
When you look at a ypc comparison game-by-game, F-Jax outperforms Spiller only in 7 of 14 games. F-Jax's edge of 4.2 vs 3.8 ypc on the season comes from the two games (CIN, PIT) that Spiller did not play in. In those two games, F-Jax averaged 5.5 and 4.9, respectively, and had 33 carries combined. Other than that, there is not much difference between the veteran and the rookie. So I am comfortable stating that Spiller produced par-for-the-course, given the specifics of the team he was on.
However, being par-for-the-course with F-Jax is bothersome when you are the #9 pick. So there are two questions here. One, is that level of production acceptable to the Bills? Two, can Spiller produce more behind a better line and get more carries, as a result?
On the first question, I think Spiller is built closer to Reggie Bush than to Jamaal Charles. He may bulk up and all that, of course, but I just don't see Spiller handling routinely 1st/2nd down work to the satisfaction of the Bills. Hence, I don't see him coming close to a 200-carries-per-season average. Right now, I am a Johnny White fan.
On the second question, Spiller is the type of player who could benefit greatly from an O-line that opens bigger holes for him. His ypc would jump and he will get more carries per game. However, I don't see the Bills putting that type of O-line together soon. So for the next 1-2 seasons, I would put him at 125 carries, 4.3 ypc, 2 TDs. The bulk of the production will come from receptions and will depend on how long it takes for him to become a more reliable blocker.
The fumbles issue is a non-issue. Many rookie fumble a lot, but eventually get the hang of it. There is no indication of Spiller being incapable of remedying the problem. The ypc debate is more interesting. What I wanted to know is whether Spiller really sucked in the same environment where F-Jax did marginally okay.
When you look at a ypc comparison game-by-game, F-Jax outperforms Spiller only in 7 of 14 games. F-Jax's edge of 4.2 vs 3.8 ypc on the season comes from the two games (CIN, PIT) that Spiller did not play in. In those two games, F-Jax averaged 5.5 and 4.9, respectively, and had 33 carries combined. Other than that, there is not much difference between the veteran and the rookie. So I am comfortable stating that Spiller produced par-for-the-course, given the specifics of the team he was on.
However, being par-for-the-course with F-Jax is bothersome when you are the #9 pick. So there are two questions here. One, is that level of production acceptable to the Bills? Two, can Spiller produce more behind a better line and get more carries, as a result?
On the first question, I think Spiller is built closer to Reggie Bush than to Jamaal Charles. He may bulk up and all that, of course, but I just don't see Spiller handling routinely 1st/2nd down work to the satisfaction of the Bills. Hence, I don't see him coming close to a 200-carries-per-season average. Right now, I am a Johnny White fan.
On the second question, Spiller is the type of player who could benefit greatly from an O-line that opens bigger holes for him. His ypc would jump and he will get more carries per game. However, I don't see the Bills putting that type of O-line together soon. So for the next 1-2 seasons, I would put him at 125 carries, 4.3 ypc, 2 TDs. The bulk of the production will come from receptions and will depend on how long it takes for him to become a more reliable blocker.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
As a Bill's fan, I am concerned about his lack of production and the Bills not using him, but I do think Buffalo's situation paid some part in that.
The offense was hugely in flux last year. Fitzpatrick wasn't the entrenched starter until quite a ways into the season. Lots of different starters on the offensive line and lots of changes there throughout the season. They played a ton of close games throughout the season and had very small margin for error. When you have those circumstances, a rookie RB that has problems in pass protection and is fumbling too much is a major liability.
So it's very possible that the circumstances of the season played a major role in how he was utilized last year. That obviously could be the case again this year, but there should be a lot more stability this year that could provide him more opportunities.
The offense was hugely in flux last year. Fitzpatrick wasn't the entrenched starter until quite a ways into the season. Lots of different starters on the offensive line and lots of changes there throughout the season. They played a ton of close games throughout the season and had very small margin for error. When you have those circumstances, a rookie RB that has problems in pass protection and is fumbling too much is a major liability.
So it's very possible that the circumstances of the season played a major role in how he was utilized last year. That obviously could be the case again this year, but there should be a lot more stability this year that could provide him more opportunities.
