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Clausen's Value Going South With WAS Out of the Equation (1 Viewer)

Bob Magaw

Footballguy
if he gets past SEA (twice), BUF and JAX...

from a poster at another board, the NFL QB-scape...

if he gets past SEA at #14, there are a lot of teams lined up in a row that DON'T need a QB (maybe SF, who does have two 1sts, like SEA, the #13 & #17)...

MIN may be next best/most likely destination for him, or a team moving up from 2nd.

it would be ironic that the rams were until recently deciding between bradford, clausen, suh & mccoy...

and if they passed on bradford (highly doubtful, imo), they might get suh/mccoy AND clausen... with the 2.1!

no way they could count on that happening, though... seemingly a team would move up to pick him off before that happened (if rams passed on bradford)...

rodgers & quinn had big free falls in recent years.

1 St Louis Rams - OPEN

2 Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford

3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Josh Freeman

4 Washington Redskins - Donovan McNabb

5 Kansas City Chiefs - Matt Cassell

6 Seattle Seahawks - Hasslebeck and just traded and gave a nice contract to Charlie Whitehurst.

7 Cleveland Browns - Jake Delhomme vs. Seneca Wallace

8 Oakland Raiders - Russell / Gradokowski

9 Buffalo Bills - OPEN, but desperate for OTs and could opt for Campbell or Bulger.

10 Jacksonville Jaguars - David Garrad (many have them grabbing Tim Tebow if not for ticket sales alone)

11 Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn

12 Miami Dolphins - Chad Henne / Pennington

13 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith vs. David Carr

14 Seattle Seahawks (Duplicate)

15 New York Giants - Eli Manning

16 Tennessee Titans - Vince Young

17 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith vs. David Carr

18 Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger

19 Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan

20 Houston Texans - Matt Schaub

21 Cincinnati Bengals - Carson Palmer

22 New England Patriots - Tom Brady

23 Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers

24 Philadelphia Eagles - Kevin Kolb

25 Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco

26 Arizona Cardinals - Matt Leinhart & Derrick Anderson

27 Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo

28 San Diego Chargers - Phillip Rivers

29 New York Jets - Mark Sanchez

30 Minnesota Vikings - NEXT BEST LANDING SPOT

31 Indianapolis Colts - Peyton Manning

32 New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees

 
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Umm Washington? McNabb's age limit could be the perfect amount of grooming time.
bradford could still be in play then?they still have 1st in 2010 & 2011... maybe they could deal mcnabb and the 1.4 for bradford? :Xstill awaiting news if a long term extension is announced... snyder could afford to franchise mcnabb, but this seems highly unlikely... it would be expensive to sign mcnabb to a big extension, and take on a top 5 salary at same position... but maybe it doesn't matter in post-cap era?* for the record, i assume bradford goes to rams, and WAS has no interest in clausen at 1.4...
 
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Can see him moving out of the 1st, but can see someone moving up to the 1st (from the 2nd) to acquire him.

Minnesota is an interesting spot to say the least & I see available there if no one else moves up.

 
30 Minnesota Vikings - NEXT BEST LANDING SPOT
It is an interesting scenario. Would Buffalo or Jacksonville pass on in him to avoid paying him a contract as a top 10 pick?
BUF is #9 & JAX #10...BUF could be a very real possibility, but it seems like they have to shore up the OL?some would say CLE and OAK (between SEA & BUF) possible, but i don't think so. JAX really needs a DE...not sure what the odds are he gets by teams like BUF, JAX & SEA (2nd pick), but if it does happen, he could drop a ways further...
 
7 Cleveland Browns - Jake Delhomme vs. Seneca Wallace8 Oakland Raiders - Russell / Gradokowski
If they thought he had even a half-decent chance of being a franchise QB, the Browns and Raiders would be FOOLS to pass on himWhich explains why they're the Browns and Raiders
 
Umm Washington? McNabb's age limit could be the perfect amount of grooming time.
That's exactly what I was thinking
Seriously? You think WAS is going to spend the 4th overall pick, a huge amount of money on a new quarterback and a 2nd + future 3rd/4th for someone to keep the seat warm for that new quarterback?

Absolutely no chance.
Yeah, they would have just toughed it out with Campbell if they were going in that direction.
 
I don't think sliding in draft is such a bad thing. Yes he will lose money on his first contract but he will most likely land on a better team with a better chance to be successful long term. Second contract should make up for the draft day slide. If he can land in Minnesota and have ADP, Rice, & Harvin at his disposal. That is going to set him up to be very successful long term. see A. Rodgers.

 
7 Cleveland Browns - Jake Delhomme vs. Seneca Wallace8 Oakland Raiders - Russell / Gradokowski
If they thought he had even a half-decent chance of being a franchise QB, the Browns and Raiders would be FOOLS to pass on himWhich explains why they're the Browns and Raiders
Holmgren has already stated that he is not a big Clausen fan.
isn't that exactly what we would expect him to say that if he secretly coveted clausen.my hunch is he is telling the truth, and he will be OK with delhomme and wallace for now... some maybe better QBs (than clausen, if not necessarily bradford) next year, after seeing what he has on his hands... not sure how much money was guaranteed with delhomme, but i think it wasn't insignificant for this year... if he really does like clausen a lot, and doesn't think wallace is more than a backup, delhomme isn't young (35), and clausen could make a lot of sense to groom as a future starter...CLE certainly has a lot of holes on their team, and could go in any of several directions other than QB...* PHI would be funny, but i don't think they want to start a controversy after grooming kolb for three years and finally giving him his shot...
 
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I hope he falls out of the first round and somebody offers the Rams some picks to move up to #33 to get him. Having the night to sleep on it, teams may be willing to give a lot to move up.

 
7 Cleveland Browns - Jake Delhomme vs. Seneca Wallace8 Oakland Raiders - Russell / Gradokowski
If they thought he had even a half-decent chance of being a franchise QB, the Browns and Raiders would be FOOLS to pass on himWhich explains why they're the Browns and Raiders
Holmgren has already stated that he is not a big Clausen fan.
isn't that exactly what we would expect him to say that if he secretly coveted clausen.
What Holgrem said just seems like his honest evaluation to me.
"I wish I liked [Clausen] more," Holmgren said. "You know how you have a type of player that you like? It's not scientific. People like him a lot. He'll go high. But it would be hard for me [to take him]."
 
1. I dont think Clausen is that good. Why waste a high pick in the first or even a late first, when you could have a guy like Colt McCoy, who may be just as good if not better, in the second round.

(I also think Brady Quinn is scaring alot of people away from Claussen. It happens all the time ask Tedford QB's.)

2. Jason Campbell is going to have a big impact on this pick as well. If Oakland or Buffalo end up with him then they are out of the mix.

3. Why would the 49ers want to burn another high pick on a potential bust? They have TWO of those on their roster right now. I am sure Singletary has a lot more say in the draft room now too. He wants to run the ball and stop the run. I would expect two picks that help accomplish that long before another 1st round QB.

 
I don't think sliding in draft is such a bad thing. Yes he will lose money on his first contract but he will most likely land on a better team with a better chance to be successful long term. Second contract should make up for the draft day slide. If he can land in Minnesota and have ADP, Rice, & Harvin at his disposal. That is going to set him up to be very successful long term. see A. Rodgers.
certainly to a point, the further he drops, more likely he goes to good team (though most good teams have a QB, almost by definition?)... unless he drops so far, a bad team near top of round two moves up to snare him... quinn ended up in CLE, after all :goodposting:definitely ended up good for rodgers...
 
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i think an interesting team in Round 2 would be the Cincinnati Bengals. They may feel compelled to deal up if need be. I certainly think at worst they should look for a backup. Best case, they have their future QB soon if Carson never bounces back.

And he may just end up in Buffalo/Jacksonville. I just don't see them reaching for him atop Round 1.

 
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3. Why would the 49ers want to burn another high pick on a potential bust? They have TWO of those on their roster right now. I am sure Singletary has a lot more say in the draft room now too. He wants to run the ball and stop the run. I would expect two picks that help accomplish that long before another 1st round QB.
excellent point, and i think you are right here.though some would say, if you have two busts on your roster, you NEED to take a QB...i think they want to give smith one more year...and the point about wanting to run and stop run is well taken (i think they would like to stop pass better, too)...i think consensus is, an OT and safety (berry will be long gone... maybe thomas or mays?) or pass rushing DE/OLB hybrid (kindle if he is there?) with the two picks...
 
How on earth could the Vikes pass on him if he's there? I don't imagine he would last that long even if he started sliding because someone would trade up to get him before the Vikes get the chance.

 
I really don't see the Browns not taking him. Holmgren wants "his guy." When he came to Seattle Kitna was gone in one year and I see that playing out with Delhomme. If he didn't get taken at #7 or by Jacksonville or Buff, I'm afraid Seattle would take him at #14 and wouldn't even think twice about it.

(I don't think Hass is on the Seattle roster come training camp no matter what happens in the draft.)

 
I really don't see the Browns not taking him. Holmgren wants "his guy." When he came to Seattle Kitna was gone in one year and I see that playing out with Delhomme. If he didn't get taken at #7 or by Jacksonville or Buff, I'm afraid Seattle would take him at #14 and wouldn't even think twice about it.(I don't think Hass is on the Seattle roster come training camp no matter what happens in the draft.)
thanx for the SEA perspective...it certainly wouldn't be a shock if delhomme isn't viewed as a long term solution (he may not even be helpful THIS YEAR, based on how bad he was last year - a huge question mark he gets his mojo back), and it would make sense to groom a future starter...one difference with kitna, though, is holmgren inherited him... in the new case, holmgren went out and got delhomme... wallace probably not widely viewed as a viable starter, but if holmgren differs on that, it could definitely reduce the chance of a clausen pick...maybe wallace already is the QB in waiting, to be groomed as future starter?
 
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Pittsburgh? Just throwing it out there but Big Ben's status is up in the air and D.Dixon & C.Batch are nothing to write home about. I guess it could be argued that Pittsburgh could take a wait & see approach with Roethlisberger and use Batch/Dixon in 2010 if needed, then draft a QB next year.

They drafted Mendenhall when he slipped in 2008 because he was their BPA, maybe it's not that big of a stretch afterall.

 
here's a KC fan's perspective.

if Clausen is still there at #5, and Weis and Pioli believe Clausen to be a franchise QB, I pray we take him.

how many years is KC going to pick in the top 5 and not take a QB?

however, if Clausen isn't viewed as an elite talent, then all bets are off. as long we don't take Baby Baluga at 5, i'll be okay.

 
here's a KC fan's perspective.if Clausen is still there at #5, and Weis and Pioli believe Clausen to be a franchise QB, I pray we take him.how many years is KC going to pick in the top 5 and not take a QB?however, if Clausen isn't viewed as an elite talent, then all bets are off. as long we don't take Baby Baluga at 5, i'll be okay.
that choice would be complicated by the fact that they are somewhat invested in cassell (pioli saw him up close, and may believe in him), and it may be hard to judge him on last year, behind a bad OL, and bowe underwhelmed... i think he looked better late once they got chambers?i also think cassell's contract may have been structured in a way they can cut him loose after this year... i just don't see how they could have written him off so quickly, and a clausen pick would be tantamount to that... it isn't as if cassell is old.KC is another team with a LOT of holes, arguably/probably far bigger than QB.
 
3. Why would the 49ers want to burn another high pick on a potential bust? They have TWO of those on their roster right now. I am sure Singletary has a lot more say in the draft room now too. He wants to run the ball and stop the run. I would expect two picks that help accomplish that long before another 1st round QB.
excellent point, and i think you are right here.though some would say, if you have two busts on your roster, you NEED to take a QB...

i think they want to give smith one more year...

and the point about wanting to run and stop run is well taken (i think they would like to stop pass better, too)...

i think consensus is, an OT and safety (berry will be long gone... maybe thomas or mays?) or pass rushing DE/OLB hybrid (kindle if he is there?) with the two picks...
Why would the 49ers start Clausen year one? Smith gets one more year to prove that he is actually Drew Brees. Meanwhile, Clausen does his Philip Rivers impersonation on the bench. David Carr is not worth mentioning IMO. I don't expect the 49ers to be a bad team in 2010. Can they expect another good QB to fall to them in 2011?

 
here's a KC fan's perspective.if Clausen is still there at #5, and Weis and Pioli believe Clausen to be a franchise QB, I pray we take him.how many years is KC going to pick in the top 5 and not take a QB?however, if Clausen isn't viewed as an elite talent, then all bets are off. as long we don't take Baby Baluga at 5, i'll be okay.
that choice would be complicated by the fact that they are somewhat invested in cassell (pioli saw him up close, and may believe in him), and it may be hard to judge him on last year, behind a bad OL, and bowe underwhelmed... i think he looked better late once they got chambers?i also think cassell's contract may have been structured in a way they can cut him loose after this year... i just don't see how they could have written him off so quickly, and a clausen pick would be tantamount to that... it isn't as if cassell is old.KC is another team with a LOT of holes, arguably/probably far bigger than QB.
invested, yes. but you are correct that his K is heavily front loaded so cutting bait won't hurt that much.it's not a matter of writing Cassel off. but how do you pass on a possible franchise QB? how many SBs in the modern era are won with mediocre QBs? Maybe Cassel blossoms and Clausen is on the bench. great. we can trade one. but if Cassel continues to be a below-average starting QB, and we keep drafting LTs that we then move to interior linemen or RTs, we're going to get nowhere.KC has a lot of holes. but again, what's the most important position on the field? greatness at what position can mask deficiencies in numerous other areas? QB. every time.Safeties can be bought in free agency. DL can be bought in FA. How many franchise QBs are available in FA? Who was the last one? Brees?I'm not sure there really is a choice.
 
3. Why would the 49ers want to burn another high pick on a potential bust? They have TWO of those on their roster right now. I am sure Singletary has a lot more say in the draft room now too. He wants to run the ball and stop the run. I would expect two picks that help accomplish that long before another 1st round QB.
excellent point, and i think you are right here.though some would say, if you have two busts on your roster, you NEED to take a QB...

i think they want to give smith one more year...

and the point about wanting to run and stop run is well taken (i think they would like to stop pass better, too)...

i think consensus is, an OT and safety (berry will be long gone... maybe thomas or mays?) or pass rushing DE/OLB hybrid (kindle if he is there?) with the two picks...
Why would the 49ers start Clausen year one? Smith gets one more year to prove that he is actually Drew Brees. Meanwhile, Clausen does his Philip Rivers impersonation on the bench. David Carr is not worth mentioning IMO. I don't expect the 49ers to be a bad team in 2010. Can they expect another good QB to fall to them in 2011?
i meant by one more year to see if smith is legit... he showed signs at times, but also sent mixed signals... if he is legit, they didn't need clausen... but agree they may not be drafting as high in 2011, and won't likely have two picks...
 
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invested, yes. but you are correct that his K is heavily front loaded so cutting bait won't hurt that much.it's not a matter of writing Cassel off. but how do you pass on a possible franchise QB? how many SBs in the modern era are won with mediocre QBs? Maybe Cassel blossoms and Clausen is on the bench. great. we can trade one. but if Cassel continues to be a below-average starting QB, and we keep drafting LTs that we then move to interior linemen or RTs, we're going to get nowhere.KC has a lot of holes. but again, what's the most important position on the field? greatness at what position can mask deficiencies in numerous other areas? QB. every time.Safeties can be bought in free agency. DL can be bought in FA. How many franchise QBs are available in FA? Who was the last one? Brees?I'm not sure there really is a choice.
a lot of points you make i have for the rams taking bradford... i have more questions about whether clausen is franchise caliber, but i agree if KC had him graded as such, he could be attractive...they should have a priviliged insight on him... as ESPNs clayton pointed out, former ND HC casserly is now OC in KC... they could be reunited... i'd be surprised, but again, it depends on if they are down on cassell, and how high they might be on clausen...i don't know if berry would be the pick... NE didn't pick high much in recent years, but they did seem to like linemen in 1st round a lot... a high 1st OL could make cassell look a lot better? not sure you can get safeties like berry as free agents (pollard did great in HOU, ironically after being cut by KC :) , but he isn't reed/polamalu... and he was an exception by playing lights out, despite the chiefs not even wanting him on their roster... jimmy smith got cut, so did james harrison multiple times?), if he is thought to grade out as one of top safeties in the league... reed and polamalu didn't go nearly that high, but if teams had a do-over and knew how good he was going to be, they would have gone far higher...i agree, if you think clausen is franchise caliber, you take him over a safety... UNLESS, they think cassell will be fine...
 
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I don't think there's any way that Clausen gets past Cleveland/Oakland unless another team trades up in the first round (Minnesota?).

 
here's a KC fan's perspective.if Clausen is still there at #5, and Weis and Pioli believe Clausen to be a franchise QB, I pray we take him.how many years is KC going to pick in the top 5 and not take a QB?however, if Clausen isn't viewed as an elite talent, then all bets are off. as long we don't take Baby Baluga at 5, i'll be okay.
That's a ####load of money for 2 QB's that haven't done #### in the league. You can count Cassel not leading NE to the playoffs, but having decent stats if you wish.If they did this in Round 1, I would consider it the biggest shock in NFL draft history.Round 2, okay. You aren't paying Claussen a boatload and you run Cassel out there a couple years to see if he improves. [still I don't see them going QB in Round 2 either]
 
I think a couple of "sleeper" landing spots for Clausen may be Jacksonville and Cincinnati. Keep an eye out for them on draft day. Yes, both have QBs in place, but they also need to be looking a little ahead. If no other player stuck out at their positions in the draft, taking the BPA in Clausen is not out of the question. I'm more confident in Jacksonville making a move than Cincinnati. Just don't take Tebow, J-Ville, and all will be well.

 
KellysHeroes said:
I'm susprised it took this long for this team to come up. Leinart is by no means a sure thing and neither is Anderson. Heck, Anderson is probably just as likely to be the starter week 1 as Matty Nice....
 
Bob Magaw said:
6 Seattle Seahawks - Hasslebeck and just traded and gave a nice contract to Charlie Whitehurst.7 Cleveland Browns - Jake Delhomme vs. Seneca Wallace8 Oakland Raiders - Russell / Gradokowski9 Buffalo Bills - OPEN, but desperate for OTs and could opt for Campbell or Bulger.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - David Garrad (many have them grabbing Tim Tebow if not for ticket sales alone)11 Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn13 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith vs. David Carr14 Seattle Seahawks (Duplicate)17 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith vs. David Carr26 Arizona Cardinals - Matt Leinhart & Derrick Anderson30 Minnesota Vikings - NEXT BEST LANDING SPOT
he could easily go at any of these spots, my guess is he won't make it to 26 as someone would trade up for him pretty quickly if he falls ala Brady Quinn, or a team we aren't considering will spend their pick on him for the future ala Rodgers.
 
Bob Magaw said:
6 Seattle Seahawks - Hasslebeck and just traded and gave a nice contract to Charlie Whitehurst.7 Cleveland Browns - Jake Delhomme vs. Seneca Wallace8 Oakland Raiders - Russell / Gradokowski9 Buffalo Bills - OPEN, but desperate for OTs and could opt for Campbell or Bulger.10 Jacksonville Jaguars - David Garrad (many have them grabbing Tim Tebow if not for ticket sales alone)11 Denver Broncos - Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn13 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith vs. David Carr14 Seattle Seahawks (Duplicate)17 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith vs. David Carr26 Arizona Cardinals - Matt Leinhart & Derrick Anderson30 Minnesota Vikings - NEXT BEST LANDING SPOT
he could easily go at any of these spots, my guess is he won't make it to 26 as someone would trade up for him pretty quickly if he falls ala Brady Quinn, or a team we aren't considering will spend their pick on him for the future ala Rodgers.
good point, that rodgers to GB was a big surprise... but at some point, if a player drops too far and represent compelling value in BPA sense, they could go to a destination that came completely out of left field...
 
Donnybrook said:
Bob Magaw said:
17 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith vs. David Carr
Smith is in the last year of his contract. Despite of what they have been saying or not saying, I don't know if they can pass on Clausen here.
If they were interested in adding a QB, they would have dealt for McNabb. However, they never expressed any interest in him all offseason. For better or worse, SF wants to give Alex Smith a fair shot to see what he can do this year.
 
I expect he will be picked by Buffalo.
i agree this could well be the most likely destination (maybe JAX, too... it is unclear how confident they are in garrard... maybe they want to give him another year to see how he does behind young, improving OL and with upgraded WR weapons?)...but again, BUF OL is in disarray, even with the two high picks at interior OL last year...
 
Donnybrook said:
Bob Magaw said:
17 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith vs. David Carr
Smith is in the last year of his contract. Despite of what they have been saying or not saying, I don't know if they can pass on Clausen here.
If they were interested in adding a QB, they would have dealt for McNabb. However, they never expressed any interest in him all offseason. For better or worse, SF wants to give Alex Smith a fair shot to see what he can do this year.
They expressed an interest in Kurt Warner when he was a free agent. I can't fault them if they did not want to give up draft picks for a QB on a one year contract. As far I know, they have not commented on Clausen but the team has been in touch with his agent.
 
Donnybrook said:
Bob Magaw said:
17 San Francisco 49ers - Alex Smith vs. David Carr
Smith is in the last year of his contract. Despite of what they have been saying or not saying, I don't know if they can pass on Clausen here.
If they were interested in adding a QB, they would have dealt for McNabb. However, they never expressed any interest in him all offseason. For better or worse, SF wants to give Alex Smith a fair shot to see what he can do this year.
They expressed an interest in Kurt Warner when he was a free agent. I can't fault them if they did not want to give up draft picks for a QB on a one year contract. As far I know, they have not commented on Clausen but the team has been in touch with his agent.
Smith showed enough last year to warrant one last look (at least that's the thinking). Last offseason there was no indication the team would ever get any return on Smith. The staff likes Nate Davis a lot too, so they would have to deem Clausen a big enough upgrade on him to justify a large investment in him (both in terms of the pick and the salary). The SF beatwriters (Barrows in particular) have denied the team would be interested. Not saying it can't happen or expressing any opinion on whether it should happen, but I wouldn't consider the Niners a likely destination for Clausen.
 
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Sabertooth said:
I don't think he ever was a first rounder. I don't think that has changed.
While I would be hesitant to take Clausen with the first 5 picks, he screams value toward the end of the first round. I think there are a lot of factors going on. His character - which teammates are saying is just not the case, that he's definitely matured. This is not Ryan Leaf. And the Brady Quinn factor. Bottom line - he ran a pro style offense very, very well and he is extremely accurate. Ask the Oakland Raiders if they wish their 100M QB was a little more accurate. The right team could be getting a steal if he falls to round 2. And actually, the lower bonus money and reduced expectations will be good for Clausen long term. He's going to have to earn it.
 
Ron_Mexico said:
I'll be the whack that says it.

Clausen is not that good. I think he slips out of the 1st round.
:goodposting: :goodposting: ND guys get the hype and the love, but they still haven't produced a good/great QB since,well.......

ND = Florida in terms of useless NFL QBs

 
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