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Clinton 2nd term chances. Assuming she wins. (1 Viewer)
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BeaverCleaver
Footballguy
She won't make it through a first term.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
85%. Assumes that the latest email teaser amounts to nothing, and she survives multiple impeachment votes. Drop it down 10~15% if the GOP doesn't bring multiple impeachment votes.
The GOP is not going to restructure in the wake of a Hillary Presidency. Instead, they're going to unite in opposition, and the differences will be papered over until the next Presidential election.
The GOP is not going to restructure in the wake of a Hillary Presidency. Instead, they're going to unite in opposition, and the differences will be papered over until the next Presidential election.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
Just voted. Those voting 0% are seriously delusional. 0%?
Voted 75% b/c I doubt the ability of the GOP to field a centrist candidate.
Voted 75% b/c I doubt the ability of the GOP to field a centrist candidate.
The Future Champs
Footballguy
I mean, let's be serious, ladies, gentlemen, and deplorables:
Hillary is going to be your next President, and you've spent the last 16 years hating on that possibility. That should be a wake up call on your influence.
Hillary is going to be your next President, and you've spent the last 16 years hating on that possibility. That should be a wake up call on your influence.
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cstu
Footballguy
She would have to royally #### up and for the Republican Party to compete change its message for me to not vote for her in 2020. I imagine most people voting for Hillary feel the same way. The Party not distancing itself from someone completely unqualified for the job will be baggage Republicans will have to carry for a long time. W, Palin, and Trump - this is what the Republican Party has given us in the past 10+ years.
dschuler
Footballguy
Democrats have never had two consecutive two term presidents in a row, although Roosevelt won 4 times in a row. I put 50%, but that's only assuming he decides to continue on after 4 years. I think the number is closer to 25% because I think she is highly likely to want only one term for various reasons.
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TheAristocrat
Footballguy
0% - She won't survive a first term without being removed from office.
TLEF316
Footballguy
Voted 75%, with the 25% being something health or scandal related. If she makes if 4 years with dying or being convicted, she'll be elected again.
Its going to take more than 4 years (not that they even have that long, as their process will be in full swing and beyond changing by early 2019) for the GOP to figure out what the #### went wrong in their process and how to fix it. Their nominee is a cartoon character.
Its going to take more than 4 years (not that they even have that long, as their process will be in full swing and beyond changing by early 2019) for the GOP to figure out what the #### went wrong in their process and how to fix it. Their nominee is a cartoon character.
GregR
Footballguy
I imagine a lot of non-Democrats are voting for Hillary because of Trump, and little other reason. Remember more people disapprove of her than not but she's still polling looking like she'll get a majority of the votes easily. A lot of people are stuck voting with her because of the obvious abortion of a candidate that Trump is.
cstu
Footballguy
If you believe Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, he is the one and only person capable of beating his Democratic opponent in the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton. In fact, Trump warned Tuesday that if Clinton wins the presidency, she's pretty much guaranteed two terms because another Republican won't have a chance of winning in 2020.
"This is the last time we’re gonna have a chance," Trump said to a crowd at a rally in Sanford, Florida. "Four years it's over. It's over. In four years, you don’t have a chance."
Trump's remarks were seemingly a direct shot at GOP politicians perhaps eyeing a run in 2020, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, both of whom Trump overcame on the way to the earning the Republican nomination this year.
"All these characters, they wanna run in four years," Trump said. "They can forget it. They're wasting their time. You don't have even a little bit of a chance. This is it, and we're really close."
While Trump dismissed Tuesday potential 2020 candidates, he also seemingly tried to court Republicans to come home to his campaign after controversies — chiefly a video of him bragging about sexual assault in 2005 — pushed them away.
"Republicans have to finally get smart and come together. This is our last chance," he said. "This is bigger than me or any of us. It’s about our country. This is about ending Obamacare. This is about the Supreme Court. This is about rebuilding our military and taking care of our vets, strengthening our borders and keeping our companies and jobs from leaving our beloved country. This is about restoring the rule of law, saving our Constitution and keeping radical Islamic terrorists the hell out of our country."
"This is the last time we’re gonna have a chance," Trump said to a crowd at a rally in Sanford, Florida. "Four years it's over. It's over. In four years, you don’t have a chance."
Trump's remarks were seemingly a direct shot at GOP politicians perhaps eyeing a run in 2020, including Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, both of whom Trump overcame on the way to the earning the Republican nomination this year.
"All these characters, they wanna run in four years," Trump said. "They can forget it. They're wasting their time. You don't have even a little bit of a chance. This is it, and we're really close."
While Trump dismissed Tuesday potential 2020 candidates, he also seemingly tried to court Republicans to come home to his campaign after controversies — chiefly a video of him bragging about sexual assault in 2005 — pushed them away.
"Republicans have to finally get smart and come together. This is our last chance," he said. "This is bigger than me or any of us. It’s about our country. This is about ending Obamacare. This is about the Supreme Court. This is about rebuilding our military and taking care of our vets, strengthening our borders and keeping our companies and jobs from leaving our beloved country. This is about restoring the rule of law, saving our Constitution and keeping radical Islamic terrorists the hell out of our country."
cstu
Footballguy
Obama beat Romney by 5 million votes and his approval rating was below 50% for most of the race. She's still going to have women and minorities solidly in her corner. It even looks like Democrats have a shot at Texas in 2020.
cstu
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
I think whichever side wins is going to get blown out of the water in the 2018 midterms. The Senate, for Democrats is particularly nasty. That being said, if HRC has to go into 19/20 with a Congress that is looking for blood, she's going to spend those two years fighting off personal attacks/impeachment inquiries/etc. etc., she's not going to get much done. To that, she'll be vulnerable to a GOOD candidate. You'll have to assume that in 17/18 she won't have carte blanche with Congress.....so stuff might not get done, she will have used up her "first woman" capital in getting into the White House and 19/20...there will be constant defenses against her person.
UNLESS....
Donald Trump remains viable, fancies himself a kingmaker AND steers his flock on a mission towards punishing The Republican Party who didn't support him in 2016. If that's the case, we'll get Republicans primaries hard from The Trump Party....they'll win and then (hopefully) they'll get smoked in the midterm.
Except for the SC vacancies, I think this is a POTUS election cycle you don't want your party to win.
UNLESS....
Donald Trump remains viable, fancies himself a kingmaker AND steers his flock on a mission towards punishing The Republican Party who didn't support him in 2016. If that's the case, we'll get Republicans primaries hard from The Trump Party....they'll win and then (hopefully) they'll get smoked in the midterm.
Except for the SC vacancies, I think this is a POTUS election cycle you don't want your party to win.
James Daulton
Footballguy
Pence? The guy who signed the Religious Freedom Restoration Act? NoPense would have beat her this election cycle.
James Daulton
Footballguy
After he loses the only thing The Donald will be steering his flock to is his TV network.
He would have a 5 plus point cushion on Hillary. Oh sure the lefties who are firmly in camp Hillary would be appalled by Pense. But his support for the Act and then his reversal is not all that different than Hillary's evolution.
Its 0% - some for reason within her control, some for reasons outside of her control.
12 years of the same party in charge of the Presidency is a very long time - rarely surpassed. General fatigue sets in over policies pursued by that party. On top of that, you will have Clinton fatigue. We see how the run-up to the election has been - I expect the next 4 years to be very contentious on nearly every issue. That just leads people wanting/expecting something more. One obvious solution would be to change the make-up of Congress, but we don't work that way - the lightening rod has been, is now, and will be Clinton.
More out of her control is that the Economy is far more likely to see a downturn than it is an upturn. We have been "recovering" for nearly 8 years now, cyclically we should be expecting a downturn of some sort - does not need to be drastic. The president rarely can influence the economy in the short-term, but almost always takes the blame (to be fair, they claim credit when it is undeserved also).
So, a combination of Democratic policies not being effective, Clinton fatigue, and her age, following 4 years of one of the most stressful jobs in the world, and a likely economic downturn, and there is almost no chance she is elected again in 2020.
Add in the minute, yet non-zero, chance she leaves office before 2020, and I think she has no shot at reelection.
Trump has the same chance imo - 0 - of being re-elected in the unlikely event he wins this year.
12 years of the same party in charge of the Presidency is a very long time - rarely surpassed. General fatigue sets in over policies pursued by that party. On top of that, you will have Clinton fatigue. We see how the run-up to the election has been - I expect the next 4 years to be very contentious on nearly every issue. That just leads people wanting/expecting something more. One obvious solution would be to change the make-up of Congress, but we don't work that way - the lightening rod has been, is now, and will be Clinton.
More out of her control is that the Economy is far more likely to see a downturn than it is an upturn. We have been "recovering" for nearly 8 years now, cyclically we should be expecting a downturn of some sort - does not need to be drastic. The president rarely can influence the economy in the short-term, but almost always takes the blame (to be fair, they claim credit when it is undeserved also).
So, a combination of Democratic policies not being effective, Clinton fatigue, and her age, following 4 years of one of the most stressful jobs in the world, and a likely economic downturn, and there is almost no chance she is elected again in 2020.
Add in the minute, yet non-zero, chance she leaves office before 2020, and I think she has no shot at reelection.
Trump has the same chance imo - 0 - of being re-elected in the unlikely event he wins this year.
Thunderlips
Footballguy
That may be, but I don't know if that network is simply going to be peddling steaks,vodka and overstock "MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN" hats.
Guy like Trump, if he loses, I don't know if he gives up the fight, as it's seen as a colossal failure to an ego like his; he's forever the butt of political jokes. Noone's going to talk about him as a historical "reformer" who came up short.....he's going to be lumped in to the Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle category. That's gotta sting to a man who obsessed over people obsessing over his "small hands". I think he threatens another Run in 20, while handpicking candidates to run against his enemies (Ryan, Cruz)......remember, Donald Trump owes no allegiance to the Republican Party.
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cstu
Footballguy
She is a conservative war hawk. She is not a republican.
Republicans who have to pick up the pieces after this election will figure out how to appease the anti-hillary crowd - and it won't come with cooperation.
Insein
Footballguy
Maybe he should have run then instead of the schmucks they put up with Trump.Pense would have beat her this election cycle.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
If the Republicans get their #### together and put up a normal candidate next time, she's most likely a one-termer. Huge if there.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
It's going to be tough for the Republicans as the country continues to get browner and more of the older Republican base dies off. I voted 50% but I think it's closer to 60%. Trump has done a lot of damage.
Doctor Detroit
Please remove your headgear
Yeah I'll go with a null vote. A lot of it will depend if the GOP can find a viable candidate, and based on how the party looks at the moment, that seems like a huge question mark. Also depends on if the GOP Congress slow rolls her and doesn't let her do anything, just like they've done with Obama. The Legislative Branch of our government is the real problem, they are basically not getting anything done.
And
at Pence having a 5 point lead if he was running, we aren't electing a Quaker president in 2016. 
Capella
Footballguy
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
Pence did not reverse his support for the act. All he did was sign a supplemental act which outlawed certain types of anti-LGBT discrimination. So, he managed to piss off the religious right (for giving in to pressure and watering down the original Act) while still pissing off everyone else (because he has refused to disavow the original Act). Also, he spent $2 million in taxpayer dollars on a desperate P.R. campaign, which failed miserably.
If Pence was the presidential candidate, he'd be getting hammered from both sides on this issue. But since he is too busy defending the craziness that is Donald Trump, the media is giving him a pass on his support of discrimination.
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Hillary can't get out of her own way while running against a guy who bragged on camera about sexually assaulting women, who knows nothing about policy, has hinted that he won't concede if he loses, called Mexican immigrants rapists, and I could on. I don't know if Pence necessarily beats her, but you are delusional if you think she could put him away based on one policy issue.
It really doesn't matter. We will continue on the path toward ever larger government regardless of whether Hillary wins again or the Republicans nominate a "youth and minority friendlier" candidate that can eek out a win. You would think there would be a limiting factor to the growth of government at some point, but I just don't see it.
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matuski
Footballguy
The flip side of this coin is the right failing to produce a candidate to beat her. Pence isn't it.
Bring a center right candidate that can present themselves as such.. easy.
[scooter]
Footballguy
The Republicans don't seem to be interested in pushing a "center right" candidate. Either that or they think that guys like Pence are "center right". (Compared to Ted Cruz he is, I guess.)
matuski
Footballguy
NutterButter
Footballguy
If she goes through her first term like Obama has gone through his 2nd , she has a very good chance. she could put it on cruise control and get elected. the cons will spend 4 years with impeachment that will never get through the senate. of course she'll find some way to screw it up bc that's what she does.
cstu
Footballguy
What has she screwed up? The only election she has lost was against Obama, who was the most charismatic politician I've seen in my life.
cstu
Footballguy
NutterButter
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
you cant be serious - she's in a tight race with the most disliked candidate in my lifetime.
