We're almost at the point where Colin and Alex have the same amount of time as a starter this season. Some interesting stats posted on a niner board.
Red ZoneKaep 18/39 102 yards 2 yard average 45% 6 td 2 intsAlex 17/23 104 yards 4 yard average 76% 12 td's 2 ints20-50Kaep 33/56 411 yards 7.34 average 59% 4td 1 intAlex 52/80 674 8.43 average 65% 5 td 1 int.50-20Kaep 54/78 810 yards 10 yard average 62% 0 td 1 intAlex 62/89 688 yards 7.7 yard average 69.7% 0 td 2 intStarting at 20 or lessKaep 20/28 235 yards 8.39 yard average 71%Alex 26/31 283 yards 9.13 yard average 84%Balls by yards:Kaep 31 2/9 22% 1 td 1 intAlex 31 3/9 33% 1 td 0 int20-30Kaep 6/8 75% 2 td 0 intAlex 5/8 62% 2 td 1 int10-20Kaep 20/35 57% 1 td 1 intAlex 22/39 56% 2 td 3 int10 to LOSKaep 59/84 70% 3 td 0 intAlex 100/135 74% 8 td 1 intSo Alex's stats are superior in the red zone, he sustained longer drives as a starter, and has greater passing yard averages overall (thought that was something Kaep was supposed to excel at). Similar numbers for passes greater than 20+ yards but notice how they've attempted the same number of deep passes (also thought this was what Kaep brought to the table).
Gee, so a guy who has been a starter in the league for 8 years had slightly better stats than a guy who has had 6 starts in his career? And that's supposed to make me wish for Alex to be the starter again?Ummm, no.
Again no, it doesn't mean Alex should be the starter again or that Kaep isn't the future. Switching back now would be an even worse long term mistake. It just means to me that the switch to Kaep was indeed premature. The major reason people were in favor of going with Kaep this year was that he would open up the passing game more this year. Can anyone honestly say that this has happened? The reality is that Kaep's passing numbers are at best on equal terms with Smiths, and in the red zone they are worse. Gore has also been lost in the shuffle with the read option offense being implemented. And who knows what the effect of benching the team captain has had on the team's chemistry. All this for a marginal upgrade at best so far.
I'm not even taking into account the expected young QB mistakes like the 9 fumbles, multiple delay of games, etc. But I still say the best time to iron these things out is in the preseason when Kaep should have been named the starter (next preseason that is). Not a month before the playoffs when the real playoff teams should be playing their best football.
That Niner board so bad at researching data and numbers that they might as well worked for Mitt Romney's polling team. Here is some basic math to help them: The regular season has 16 games.
Alex Smith started 9 of those games.
Colin Kaepernick started 6 of those games.
9 minus 6 equals 3.
Now, there is 3 games worth of data that isn't complete in the 2012 season. If we had 9 games apiece to weigh this on - and in the future the NFL regular season might have 18 games – then we have something to work with. But we don't have 9 games apiece, and by the time the NFL has a 18 game regular season Alex Smith will be with another team, and then be compared to the backup or rookie who beats him out like they have done his entire career. So those missing 'swing games' are what that 'Niner board' (see – 49erWebzone or similar) data crunchers are missing.
It doesn't take Nate Silver to figure the following out. Probably because this is actual data that is compiled in actual games:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03/gamelog/2012/
Code:
Rk G Date Tm Opp Result GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A AY/A
1 1 2012-09-09 SFO GNB W 30-22 * 20 26 76.9% 211 2 0 125.6 8.12 9.65
2 2 2012-09-16 SFO DET W 27-19 * 20 31 64.5% 226 2 0 107.7 7.29 8.58
3 3 2012-09-23 SFO MIN L 13-24 * 24 35 68.6% 204 1 1 81.1 5.83 5.11
4 4 2012-09-30 SFO NYJ W 34-0 * 12 21 57.1% 143 0 0 78.1 6.81 6.81
5 5 2012-10-07 SFO BUF W 45-3 * 18 24 75.0% 303 3 0 156.2 12.63 15.13
6 6 2012-10-14 SFO NYG L 3-26 * 19 30 63.3% 200 0 3 43.1 6.67 2.17
7 7 2012-10-18 SFO SEA W 13-6 * 14 23 60.9% 140 1 1 74.5 6.09 5.00
8 8 2012-10-29 SFO ARI W 24-3 * 18 19 94.7% 232 3 0 157.1 12.21 15.37
9 9 2012-11-11 SFO STL T 24-24 * 7 8 87.5% 72 1 0 143.7 9.00 11.50
9 Games 152 217 70.0% 1731 13 5 104.1 7.98 8.14
Note: these game logs are from Pro-Football Reference. Within these game logs in the link are stats and plays compiled after every game. You can research any particular player -in this case QB-, their game at any angle, from pass targets, where those pass targets were completed, how many yards, etc. It's awesome stuff, and major props to Chase Stuart and Co. for this info.
The problem with the “Kaep is posting Smith numbers” crowd is that they don't understand the numbers. This is just a basic table of numbers that doesn't include sacks. Smith in these 9 starts has taken 24 of them. Kaep in 6 games as starter has taken 11. Now we can hypothetically add 3 'swing games' (see – games that don't exist yet, but the Niner board pollsters are adding them in because they think they can win this thing) in this, and Kaep would have to take
13 sacks in 3 remaining regular season games to match Smith as a starter (note: I am just counting sacks as a starter, not Kaep's sacks as a backup. There are valid reasons for this, because if we are going to look at averages, then we have to also look at Kaep's limited snaps as a backup.) So right there is a Smith number that Kaep isn't posting.
If you go game by game, you really see Smith's Y/A fluctuate big time. Of course this happens with every NFL QB, thus people average it out as a whole. But to compare Kaep's averages to Smith's without looking at it game to game won't tell you anything about the offense, special teams, of the defense as well as the sack numbers. Smith has 4 games below 7.00 Y/A. The four games he had below that average were poor passing games overall from Smith and the offense. Against MIN he posted 1TD (a one yard pass to Vernon Davis – hey, there is that “superior RZ number”) and 1 INT. Of course it's there on the table. If you look at the next game against NYJ you also see another poor game in the passing offense. Against BUF he had a great game - but Marc Sanchez threw 3tds against them as well as food for thought. Against NYG, well that's the worst game by a 49er QB this season, and Smith was the one who posted it. Yes, it's worse than Kaep's last game for a number of reasons, one of which is team health. Smith then follows up the NYG game with a home game against SEA. Again, another poor effort (at home no less) from the passing offense, with only a 12 yard TD pass (hey, there is that Superior RZ number again!) to 1 more INT (that's 4 in 2 consecutive games folks, both games at home).
Now somewhere in all this is some weird argument over a .3 in Y/A between both Qbs.
After these two games, the media started to question Smith's confidence and decision making. Why? Because these were two poor passing games from the QB. What can help a QB's confidence?
A game against AZ facing John Skelton and his 52 attempts/dropbacks. Right in the middle of an AZ 9 game losing slide that started with BUF, yet ended against DET!
Against STL (whose new HC in Jeff Fisher is doing a great job IMO starting with his defense which is much improved) , Smith was had one 14 yard TD before getting injured (again, that superior RZ number) with a 9.00 Y/A. Did you look at how many attempts? That's right! We are now lumping in a half game or so as a starter, along with the spikes in the games against BUF and AZ, and I didn't include the games against GB and DET yet (which those 2 games were solid from Smith as well as the rest of the team, yes even Akers with his 63 yard bomb against GB). So let's try something here. Since Niner board's “swing stats” has 3 less games for Kaep as starter, let's subtract 3 games from Smith. You get to choose which games and their Y/A here. That would even them out at 6 games a piece as starters. Ready?
GO.
Now if you were THAT GUY who subtracted Smith's worse games in Y/A and such to Smith's best games, guess what? You're cherry picking stats!
“But you said we can choose 3 games!”
That's because there is no such thing as 9 consecutive games from Kaep as starter yet. But since Niner board posted some Romney polling team numbers from some yet to be named Niner forum, I figured we can play fast and loose with the numbers game.
As far as superior RZ and sustained drives: I dunno where this argument comes from. I guess the 24 sacks have something to do with it. I guess David Akers kicking a boat load of 40+ yard FG's has nothing to do with it. Andy Lee is punting around the same numbers with either QB. Kendall Hunter and Kyle Williams have been both out since after Week 11. I guess we need three more games to make that argument. I dunno why the Y/A comparison is being made here. I'll post Kaep's table so we can take a peek at it:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KaepCo00/gamelog/2012/
Code:
Rk G Date Tm Opp Result GS Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate Y/A AY/A
7 10 2012-11-19 SFO CHI W 32-7 * 16 23 69.6% 243 2 0 133.1 10.57 12.30
8 11 2012-11-25 SFO NOR W 31-21 * 16 25 64.0% 231 1 1 90.6 9.24 8.24
9 12 2012-12-02 SFO STL L 13-16 * 21 32 65.6% 208 0 0 83.9 6.50 6.50
10 13 2012-12-09 SFO MIA W 27-13 * 18 23 78.3% 185 0 0 100.2 8.04 8.04
11 14 2012-12-16 SFO NWE W 41-34 * 14 25 56.0% 221 4 1 108.5 8.84 10.24
12 15 2012-12-23 SFO SEA L 13-42 * 19 36 52.8% 244 1 1 72.0 6.78 6.08
Note: I didn't include rushing stats for either QB, although Kaep's athleticism and speed would most definitely be a key here for the QB switch
Now of course you see game spikes facing opponents in CHI and NWE from Kaep, who are far tougher teams to Smith's spikes against BUF and AZ.
Kaep's worst games aren't even close to Smith's worst games, and Kaep's worst numbers are not nearly as bad as Smith's worst numbers. So again we can throw out the “Kaep is posting Smith numbers” out with the Niner board bathwater. Even Smith's best game against BUF had a 300 yard rushing day. Kaep's best day had 120 yards less rushing on the road in December NWE conditions. Good day for the 49er ground game there too. Bad day for the 49er defense.
Kaep's worst game so far is obviously against SEA. It's tough for either QB facing a team that is hot and just scored 100 points in consecutive games facing them in their house. It's tougher when the 49ers miss the Smith they can't afford to miss, Justin, who while injured the 49er defense gave up a ton of points in six quarters of football. Even tougher when Frank Gore has only 28 yards in 6 attempts, with most of those attempts in the first half. Kaep is starting in the stretch run of November and December. He's thrown for 1332 yards, 8tds to 3 ints as starter, 4 of those games on the road. Smith had only one series of consecutive games on the road where Kaep has had two of them, again in the tough months of NOV and DEC. Why would Harbaugh start a second year QB during these tough months? At least Kaep has one home game with AZ to try to correct the SEA game, and that also goes for Harbaugh and the rest of the team.
What's funny here is that
Sando tries to make a similar argument to Niner board's, but then reiterates what I have posted already:
The 49ers' efficiency in the red zone and in overlapping goal-to-go situations has fallen off with Kaepernick. For example, the 49ers were above 50 percent in red zone touchdown percentage four times in their first eight games, all with Smith starting. They have not been above 50 percent with Kaepernick starting.
There aren't enough stats built up over time to make the numbers definitive. There are some key variables to consider.
Kaepernick has made four of his six starts on the road, some against top teams such as New England and Seattle. Removing the Buffalo game from Smith's ledger would push Kaepernick into the lead in points per drive, percentage of drives leading to touchdowns and expected points added per drive.
Those are things to keep in mind when deciding how far to run with the numbers. Also, there were drives when both quarterbacks participated. I'll look for ways to refine the information as we continue to analyze the quarterback situation in San Francisco.
Is Karl Rove still in the building? Because Sando walked into that Niner board type trap and then realized that the data is incomplete and maybe just stretching the truth about those numbers. But see that's what is driving this whole idiotic comparison between the two Qbs: the quest who can make the “Magic number” stick, when there is no Magic number. If you just looked at each game from each QB, you still find that again, Kaep's worst games aren't as bad as Smith's worst games and there is no real argument on who has a better average because they don't really run the same offense respectively. All kinds of variables such as team health, plays that are called, opposition, Sept/Oct vs. Nov/Dec, consecutive starts, special teams, field position, so on so forth. Screw all that nonsense. Lets just throw everything into a blender and see if it comes out a Margarita!
If you really wanna look at a real possible reason why Harbaugh made that switch, it could be that it has really nothing to do with either QB's pluses or minuses, .3 difference of Y/A, cooking efficiency numbers and stats to qualify or disqualify the switch, etc. It may be due to both Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman being impatient and wanting to put their real offense in now rather than later, with the one QB who in a small part helped influence their ideas along with a huge part in his coach. Here are a few paragraphs from a fine article from SBNation to help slam this door shut:
http://www.sbnation.com/longform/2012/12/27/3792740/pistol-offense-nfl-redskins-rg3
About three years ago, Greg Roman, then offensive coordinator at Stanford University, traveled to Reno, Nev., to visit with Nevada Wolf Pack head coach Chris Ault to learn about his “Pistol Offense.” Before the 2005 season, Ault, unhappy with his offense, presented his staff with a new idea – a shotgun formation with the running back aligned directly behind the quarterback. “They thought I’d lost my marbles,” Ault recently recalled. But with the “Pistol” Nevada went from near the bottom to the top of its conference in offensive production and over the next few years slowly added additional components to the attack to make it even more effective.
The potency of Ault’s offense peaked during the 2009 season when they finished the season with three 1,000-yard rushers – two running backs as well as lanky junior quarterback, a Colin Kaepernick, who added another 2,000 passing yards and 20 touchdowns. The following offseason Roman – along with many other coaches from across the country – visited Ault. He wanted to learn how to add some Pistol looks to the pro-style offense he ran at Stanford under head coach Jim Harbaugh. During their visit, Ault was, according to Roman, “very accommodating and it was very interesting as a coach to go really learn something totally new,” he said, adding, “That was very valuable time spent.”
The next season Stanford added a few such new looks, but did not focus on it. But, as fate would have it, Roman, now the San Francisco 49ers’ offensive coordinator, still under Harbaugh, coaches Kaepernick, the 49ers’ second-round draft pick in 2011. These days he finds himself going back to his notes from those few days he spent in Reno .
Still, even with his inside knowledge of Ault’s attack, and Kaepernick on the 49ers’ roster, Roman and Harbaugh didn’t immediately decide to turn things over to their young quarterback. Instead, and despite the off-and-on success teams like the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos had dabbling in these concepts with quarterbacks Cam Newton and Tim Tebow in 2011, it was not until this season, when Robert Griffin III entered the NFL and emerged as the Washington Redskins’ starting quarterback, that many other NFL coaches began to realize Ault’s ideas might be the next big thing. “The Redskins do it more than anybody,” said Roman. “We’re just starting to tap into it now.”
The 49ers also lined up in the Pistol set, with Frank Gore behind Colin Kaepernick, but instead of just one fullback they used two, one on either side of the quarterback. (These were actually tight-ends, but they played the role of fullbacks.) This is the “Diamond formation,” which first became popular during the 2010 season when Oklahoma State used it with great success [source] (though their quarterback, Brandon Weeden, was no running threat), and has since been picked up elsewhere. Against the Dolphins, the 49ers used the exact same concept as the Redskins, but with two “arcing” lead blockers instead of only one.
Kaepernick and Gore both opened to their left, with Kaepernick reading the Dolphins’ backside defensive end. But, unlike the Ravens, who keyed on Griffin, the Dolphins defense was almost entirely focused on Frank Gore plunging into the line. Kaepernick kept the ball himself, and darted away to find nothing but green grass and a wide open field. The result was a 50-yard touchdown run and, more importantly, a win for the 49ers.
The other rebuttal is simply to look and see what other teams are doing around the league. The clear trend is that more and more teams are adopting these concepts. Just as Roman and Harbaugh have embraced the trend to take better advantage of Colin Kaepernick’s skills, Seattle Seahawk head coach Pete Carroll has tapped into the best read option concepts as a spark for his offense led by his own dynamic rookie quarterback, Russell Wilson. Following a 19-13 loss to the St. Louis Rams, Carroll watched film of Griffin’s Redskins attack and saw something he didn't necessarily expect: an NFL team successfully using the very concepts he’d had to deal with when he was head coach at Southern Cal and faced Chip Kelly’s Oregon team