**Colts 8-5 at Seahawks 10-3**(-14, 42.5) 4:25 (17 Viewers)

[Ministry of Pain]

@FBG Moderator
@Joe Bryant

GO!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

44 year old Philip Rivers expected to start for the Colts on Sunday

 

[FarFromHome]

Shall forever be known as the Phillip Rivers Messiah game. The return of the great one. The OMG are u kidding me game. Go Phillip!!!!!

And Taylor

 

[travdogg]

Super bold call here...Philip Rivers greatly exceeds expectations and actually is about as good Jones was. Indy has maybe the NFL's best OL, great run game, and a multitude of weapons. Its probably a better supporting cast than Rivers had at any point in the 2010s. I think Alec Pierce can get open down the field, and I expect a lot of Jonathan Taylor (Seattle's run D is only average) and I think Rivers does enough to keep it close.

For the Seahawks, the Colts secondary (which looked awesome a few weeks ago) is falling apart. I think JSN does whatever he wants to, and I think Shaheed gets deep a couple times. Colts have a below average run defense, but Seattle splits their RBs too much to really take advantage of that for fantasy. I'll tentatively say Walker should have an effective game, though volume will determine how great it is for fantasy. I think he'll hit some big runs.

I expect both teams to be overly conservative to start, likely a low scoring 1st half, before kicking up in the 2nd.

Seahawks-24
Colts-17

 

[efactor]

Rivers was pretty bad last time he played. Has he gotten better with age? Could be ugly

 

[Largent]

I'm going to say Rivers plays better than we expect....but Mike McDonald will not allow Rivers to be a good feel foot note....maybe 1 TD, but under 200 yrds

 

[habsfan]

I expect Seattle to curb stomp the Colts here.

 

[Dizzy]

SEA 34, IND 3

Good luck Philip!

 

[travdogg]

Rivers was pretty bad last time he played. Has he gotten better with age? Could be ugly

In what world was Rivers pretty bad last time he played? Rivers was in the top-10 in passing yards, completion %, YPA, and top-5 in sack percentage. He was still an above average starter in 2020. I'm not arguing he's still that guy, but calling that "pretty bad" basically means there are like 8 QBs in the NFL who aren't "pretty bad"

 

[dickey moe]

Only Murders in the Building

 

[JohnnyU]

Only Murders in the Building

Yeah, I'm a realist here. This could get ugly early. I just wish the Colts weren't playing such a good defense, but here we are.
Seahawks - 41
Colts - 0

 

[IHEARTFF]

Similar to Rams, this could be a trap game for Seattle with the 1 seed fight next week.

 

[Hooper31]

(Seattle's run D is only average)

Curious to know which metric you are using to make this statement. Or perhaps not a stat, but a general feeling?

I ask not to be contrarian, but due to a feeling. Stats would show us that Seattle has a much better than average run defense, but I teach advanced placement statistics for a living and I'm always on the lookout for dirty stats that absolutely wreck the notion of "independence". Not all rushing attempts are the same. Not all run stops are the same. Not all opportunities are the same. The stats are being complied behind different offense lines and against different defense schemes and personnel.

My gut tells me Seattle might struggle to stop the run today. We shall see.

 

[travdogg]

(Seattle's run D is only average)

Curious to know which metric you are using to make this statement. Or perhaps not a stat, but a general feeling?

I ask not to be contrarian, but due to a feeling. Stats would show us that Seattle has a much better than average run defense, but I teach advanced placement statistics for a living and I'm always on the lookout for dirty stats that absolutely wreck the notion of "independence". Not all rushing attempts are the same. Not all run stops are the same. Not all opportunities are the same. The stats are being complied behind different offense lines and against different defense schemes and personnel.

My gut tells me Seattle might struggle to stop the run today. We shall see.

Seattle is technically 5th in run defense, but 25th in tackling %. To me that means the 5th in run defense, is more about who they faced than them doing a great job. They are 10th in pass rush win rate, and 4th in coverage rate, that all leads me to thinking the run D is the place to attack.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

(Seattle's run D is only average)

Curious to know which metric you are using to make this statement. Or perhaps not a stat, but a general feeling?

I ask not to be contrarian, but due to a feeling. Stats would show us that Seattle has a much better than average run defense, but I teach advanced placement statistics for a living and I'm always on the lookout for dirty stats that absolutely wreck the notion of "independence". Not all rushing attempts are the same. Not all run stops are the same. Not all opportunities are the same. The stats are being complied behind different offense lines and against different defense schemes and personnel.

My gut tells me Seattle might struggle to stop the run today. We shall see.

Seattle is technically 5th in run defense, but 25th in tackling %. To me that means the 5th in run defense, is more about who they faced than them doing a great job. They are 10th in pass rush win rate, and 4th in coverage rate, that all leads me to thinking the run D is the place to attack.

Seattle has 5 wins by over 21 points and 8 by over 7. Teams usually give up on the run when they are that far behind.

 

[boilerdave]

Rivers was pretty bad last time he played. Has he gotten better with age? Could be ugly

In what world was Rivers pretty bad last time he played? Rivers was in the top-10 in passing yards, completion %, YPA, and top-5 in sack percentage. He was still an above average starter in 2020. I'm not arguing he's still that guy, but calling that "pretty bad" basically means there are like 8 QBs in the NFL who aren't "pretty bad"

I think people misremember or confuse the at the end of their careers QBs Rivers and Matt Ryan times playing for the Colts. Ryan was horrible.

 

[Hooper31]

(Seattle's run D is only average)

Curious to know which metric you are using to make this statement. Or perhaps not a stat, but a general feeling?

I ask not to be contrarian, but due to a feeling. Stats would show us that Seattle has a much better than average run defense, but I teach advanced placement statistics for a living and I'm always on the lookout for dirty stats that absolutely wreck the notion of "independence". Not all rushing attempts are the same. Not all run stops are the same. Not all opportunities are the same. The stats are being complied behind different offense lines and against different defense schemes and personnel.

My gut tells me Seattle might struggle to stop the run today. We shall see.

Seattle is technically 5th in run defense, but 25th in tackling %. To me that means the 5th in run defense, is more about who they faced than them doing a great job. They are 10th in pass rush win rate, and 4th in coverage rate, that all leads me to thinking the run D is the place to attack.

Which metric yields 5th? Is that yards per game (4th)? yards per carry (2nd)?

Tackling % feels like a purely subjective number. Are all missed tackles the same? Some more egregious than others? Where do these numbers come from? I ask because I really don't know and would like to learn.