BustedKnuckles
Footballguy
Colts, Chargers are best bets vs. Patriots
by John Czarnecki....http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7627324
John Czarnecki has been the editorial consultant for FOX NFL Sunday since its 1994 inception. This season marks Czarnecki's 30th year covering the NFL. He is one of 44 selectors to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Updated: January 2, 2008, 7:20 PM EST 305 comments RSS digg blog email print What the New England Patriots have accomplished, being the first team to go 16-0, probably won't be duplicated for a while. Maybe another 35 seasons, like Tom Brady said. When they acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Adalius Thomas, plus worked out a deal with Asante Samuel, many of us thought the Patriots were the Super Bowl favorites. They made the most and best off-season moves. Plus, they had Brady.
Tony Dungy's Colts know the Patriots as well as any other NFL team does.The playoffs, though, are a different story. It's a single-elimination tournament, and a bad call or a bad break could wreck the Patriots' fortunes. But they remain the best team, plus all their playoff games will be at home. If they make it to Phoenix, site of Super Bowl XLII, the weather and playing surface should be conducive to their bombs-away offense.
They are even-money favorites to win their fourth championship in seven seasons. The Pittsburgh Steelers of the 1970s won four in six seasons. But not even the mighty Steelers ever went 19-0.
Here are the teams, in order, who have the best chance of derailing the Belichick Bandwagon.
Indianapolis (4-1) — The Colts had the Patriots right where they wanted them back in Week 9, but Reggie Wayne dropped a potential touchdown and then Peyton Manning misfired on his next possession. Indy was up 10 points and blew it; the Colts couldn't contain Wes Welker in the fourth quarter and that was the difference. The Colts have the best back seven on defense to run and smack the New England receivers, but they would have a much better chance if Dwight Freeney was healthy. Don't underestimate his loss. The unknown in the equation is receiver Marvin Harrison. He didn't play in the regular-season game and how effective will he be after sitting the last nine games of the season? No doubt, though, the defending Super Bowl champs will be motivated. Nobody knows the Patriots better than Tony Dungy's team.
San Diego (8-1) — The Chargers are finally beginning to play well and if nose tackle Jamal Williams can clog the middle like he used to it will allow Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips to create havoc on the outside. The Chargers should have an easy time with Tennessee this weekend and then they would have to travel to beat the Colts. They've done that before and actually match up well against Indianapolis, especially if they can get a lead. The thinking is if they beat the Colts, they will be sky high for a trip to New England. The Patriots upset the Chargers in last year's playoffs, so there's a score to settle and you can bet LaDainian Tomlinson wants a second chance. LT would be a man possessed this time around.
Dallas (10-1) — A month ago, this was the Super Bowl everyone was looking forward to. But the Cowboys have slipped a little on offense down the stretch — they failed to score touchdowns in losses to Philadelphia and Washington — and there's the big Terrell Owens question. Will he recover from that high ankle sprain? If Dallas wins the NFC, you can bet that Wade Phillips will install a couple defensive wrinkles that Brady hasn't seen. With two weeks to prepare, the Cowboys might be able to slow down the NFL's highest-scoring offense ever. What worries me is the Dallas offense. It's been in second gear for a while and one of their coaches told me they probably couldn't have beaten the Redskins last Sunday even if they weren't resting some guys.
Jacksonville (12-1) — The Jaguars are the current flavor of the month. Their physical style on both offense and defense definitely would pose problems for the Patriots. There is no doubt in my mind that they will demolish Pittsburgh for the second time in 21 days, thus earning themselves a playoff date with the Patriots. Ex-Vikings coach Mike Tice has done an excellent job with this offensive line, one that right now is more powerful than any in the AFC. But as much as Fred Taylor and Mo Jones-Drew will cause New England some problems, Jacksonville is too one-dimensional, really, on offense to pull the upset. Also, I don't see how the Jaguars slow down Brady unless they play in freezing rain. But the Jaguars will soften up the Pats for their next opponent.
Green Bay (20-1) — The Packers have closed the gap on the Cowboys from their earlier meeting and a Green Bay-New England Super Bowl would be every Cheesehead's favorite. Brett Favre vs. Tom Brady is a billboard special. The Packers' cornerbacks can press New England's receivers and possibly cause some problems for Moss and Welker. But as much as you love Favre, he doesn't have the arsenal to compete with New England. Also, I don't see Ryan Grant running over the Patriots, either.
Tampa Bay (30-1) — The Bucs would shock the world if they ended up in Phoenix. And Jon Gruden would have a game plan for the Patriots, you can bet on that. But the Bucs are too young on defense and maybe too old at quarterback to really be a factor against New England, which probably would be favored by three touchdowns -- more than the Colts were favored by when upset by Joe Namath and the Jets.
New York Giants (30-1) — As difficult as it is to forget last Saturday's masterpiece in the Meadowlands, the Giants would never win a rematch with the Patriots. They gave it their best shot already and New England definitely wouldn't take them lightly. One thing to consider is that closing out a 16-0 season isn't the same magnitude as winning a Super Bowl. If this matchup happens, New England will win. It won't be close. No way Eli Manning throws four more touchdowns against the Pats. Besides, I don't see New York beating Tampa Bay.
Seattle (75-1) — The Seahawks lost to Atlanta last Sunday and somebody named Chris Redman passed for four touchdowns against them. Seattle's defense would be steamrolled by Laurence Maroney and Brady would have a field day even with Patrick Kerney chasing him. Without a serious running game, the Seahawks are too one-dimensional on offense to make the Patriots sweat.
Washington (75-1) — Only divine intervention -- the memory of Sean Taylor on every Washington player's shoulder pads -- can make this Super Bowl happen. The Redskins have the toughest playoff journey, beginning with this weekend's trek across the country to the Northwest to play before all those crazed Qwest Field fans. The Redskins have made a remarkable 4-0 run since Taylor's funeral and should be commended. But they expended a lot of energy to make the playoffs and I doubt they have much left in the tank to win three road playoff games. Plus, Todd Collins isn't beating Brady.
Pittsburgh (100-1) — The Steelers should get eliminated Saturday night. They lost to Jacksonville last time with Willie Parker, who was leading the NFL in rushing at the time. The Steelers don't have the offensive line anymore to mash the Patriots and Ben Roethlisberger definitely doesn't have enough protection to pass all over New England. Pittsburgh has no shot.
Tennessee (150-1) — The Titans backed into the playoffs. As much as I respect Coach Jeff Fisher and know his team would be prepared, I simply have no confidence in Vince Young to play the game of his life. That's what it would take to upset the Patriots. Young would have to take over the game, much like he did against USC in the BCS championship game two seasons ago. Trouble is New England is hardly Southern Cal.
by John Czarnecki....http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7627324
John Czarnecki has been the editorial consultant for FOX NFL Sunday since its 1994 inception. This season marks Czarnecki's 30th year covering the NFL. He is one of 44 selectors to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Updated: January 2, 2008, 7:20 PM EST 305 comments RSS digg blog email print What the New England Patriots have accomplished, being the first team to go 16-0, probably won't be duplicated for a while. Maybe another 35 seasons, like Tom Brady said. When they acquired Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Adalius Thomas, plus worked out a deal with Asante Samuel, many of us thought the Patriots were the Super Bowl favorites. They made the most and best off-season moves. Plus, they had Brady.
Tony Dungy's Colts know the Patriots as well as any other NFL team does.The playoffs, though, are a different story. It's a single-elimination tournament, and a bad call or a bad break could wreck the Patriots' fortunes. But they remain the best team, plus all their playoff games will be at home. If they make it to Phoenix, site of Super Bowl XLII, the weather and playing surface should be conducive to their bombs-away offense.
They are even-money favorites to win their fourth championship in seven seasons. The Pittsburgh Steelers of the 1970s won four in six seasons. But not even the mighty Steelers ever went 19-0.
Here are the teams, in order, who have the best chance of derailing the Belichick Bandwagon.
Indianapolis (4-1) — The Colts had the Patriots right where they wanted them back in Week 9, but Reggie Wayne dropped a potential touchdown and then Peyton Manning misfired on his next possession. Indy was up 10 points and blew it; the Colts couldn't contain Wes Welker in the fourth quarter and that was the difference. The Colts have the best back seven on defense to run and smack the New England receivers, but they would have a much better chance if Dwight Freeney was healthy. Don't underestimate his loss. The unknown in the equation is receiver Marvin Harrison. He didn't play in the regular-season game and how effective will he be after sitting the last nine games of the season? No doubt, though, the defending Super Bowl champs will be motivated. Nobody knows the Patriots better than Tony Dungy's team.
San Diego (8-1) — The Chargers are finally beginning to play well and if nose tackle Jamal Williams can clog the middle like he used to it will allow Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips to create havoc on the outside. The Chargers should have an easy time with Tennessee this weekend and then they would have to travel to beat the Colts. They've done that before and actually match up well against Indianapolis, especially if they can get a lead. The thinking is if they beat the Colts, they will be sky high for a trip to New England. The Patriots upset the Chargers in last year's playoffs, so there's a score to settle and you can bet LaDainian Tomlinson wants a second chance. LT would be a man possessed this time around.
Dallas (10-1) — A month ago, this was the Super Bowl everyone was looking forward to. But the Cowboys have slipped a little on offense down the stretch — they failed to score touchdowns in losses to Philadelphia and Washington — and there's the big Terrell Owens question. Will he recover from that high ankle sprain? If Dallas wins the NFC, you can bet that Wade Phillips will install a couple defensive wrinkles that Brady hasn't seen. With two weeks to prepare, the Cowboys might be able to slow down the NFL's highest-scoring offense ever. What worries me is the Dallas offense. It's been in second gear for a while and one of their coaches told me they probably couldn't have beaten the Redskins last Sunday even if they weren't resting some guys.
Jacksonville (12-1) — The Jaguars are the current flavor of the month. Their physical style on both offense and defense definitely would pose problems for the Patriots. There is no doubt in my mind that they will demolish Pittsburgh for the second time in 21 days, thus earning themselves a playoff date with the Patriots. Ex-Vikings coach Mike Tice has done an excellent job with this offensive line, one that right now is more powerful than any in the AFC. But as much as Fred Taylor and Mo Jones-Drew will cause New England some problems, Jacksonville is too one-dimensional, really, on offense to pull the upset. Also, I don't see how the Jaguars slow down Brady unless they play in freezing rain. But the Jaguars will soften up the Pats for their next opponent.
Green Bay (20-1) — The Packers have closed the gap on the Cowboys from their earlier meeting and a Green Bay-New England Super Bowl would be every Cheesehead's favorite. Brett Favre vs. Tom Brady is a billboard special. The Packers' cornerbacks can press New England's receivers and possibly cause some problems for Moss and Welker. But as much as you love Favre, he doesn't have the arsenal to compete with New England. Also, I don't see Ryan Grant running over the Patriots, either.
Tampa Bay (30-1) — The Bucs would shock the world if they ended up in Phoenix. And Jon Gruden would have a game plan for the Patriots, you can bet on that. But the Bucs are too young on defense and maybe too old at quarterback to really be a factor against New England, which probably would be favored by three touchdowns -- more than the Colts were favored by when upset by Joe Namath and the Jets.
New York Giants (30-1) — As difficult as it is to forget last Saturday's masterpiece in the Meadowlands, the Giants would never win a rematch with the Patriots. They gave it their best shot already and New England definitely wouldn't take them lightly. One thing to consider is that closing out a 16-0 season isn't the same magnitude as winning a Super Bowl. If this matchup happens, New England will win. It won't be close. No way Eli Manning throws four more touchdowns against the Pats. Besides, I don't see New York beating Tampa Bay.
Seattle (75-1) — The Seahawks lost to Atlanta last Sunday and somebody named Chris Redman passed for four touchdowns against them. Seattle's defense would be steamrolled by Laurence Maroney and Brady would have a field day even with Patrick Kerney chasing him. Without a serious running game, the Seahawks are too one-dimensional on offense to make the Patriots sweat.
Washington (75-1) — Only divine intervention -- the memory of Sean Taylor on every Washington player's shoulder pads -- can make this Super Bowl happen. The Redskins have the toughest playoff journey, beginning with this weekend's trek across the country to the Northwest to play before all those crazed Qwest Field fans. The Redskins have made a remarkable 4-0 run since Taylor's funeral and should be commended. But they expended a lot of energy to make the playoffs and I doubt they have much left in the tank to win three road playoff games. Plus, Todd Collins isn't beating Brady.
Pittsburgh (100-1) — The Steelers should get eliminated Saturday night. They lost to Jacksonville last time with Willie Parker, who was leading the NFL in rushing at the time. The Steelers don't have the offensive line anymore to mash the Patriots and Ben Roethlisberger definitely doesn't have enough protection to pass all over New England. Pittsburgh has no shot.
Tennessee (150-1) — The Titans backed into the playoffs. As much as I respect Coach Jeff Fisher and know his team would be prepared, I simply have no confidence in Vince Young to play the game of his life. That's what it would take to upset the Patriots. Young would have to take over the game, much like he did against USC in the BCS championship game two seasons ago. Trouble is New England is hardly Southern Cal.
Saying that bad weather will hurt the Colts is based on how these two teams were constructed in previous matchups. In previous years the Colts were more the finesse/pass happy team with less physical defense and a weaker run game. This year, the two teams are reversed - it's NE that thrives on the passing game and the Colts with the superior run game and more physical defense. Ironically, week 9 deciding where the AFC championship game is played, may have been a bizarre twist, imho - the dome would have benefited NE, bad weather the Colts.
