Colts sign Sanders to a Mega Deal (1 Viewer)

[fruity pebbles]

more than likely they franchise tag Dallas Clark

I don't think soI don't think he's worth it. He's a very good player but Gonzalez and Gates are head and shoulders above the rest so the top 5 for a TE is too much for him IMO. A nice sized contract he's worth but not so high as it's extreme. IF someone out there overpays for him, I don't think the Colts could/should match.I don't recall transition tag's meaning but...you get the gist, something very good but not quite franchise tag $.There's been some OK backup TEs for them in recent years and I'm not so sure a decent TE like Randy McMichael(to use last year's FA as example) wouldn't do fine for them.

But a farnchise top 5 contract isn't really worth that cause you're trading money for security. Since it's only a one year deal, teams are often willing to give slightly lesser players top 5 money. Plus he's really the only guy left that's unsigned to use the franchise tag on.

 

[The Pitbull]

Plus he's really the only guy left that's unsigned to use the franchise tag on.

Ryan Lilja, and you could make a case that he is even more important.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Gotta think Harrison will be done, esp. given how Colts O really didn't take much of a step back with him out. Clark likely gets the Franchise Tag. I'd be highly impressed with the Colts FO if they were able to re-sign both Sanders & Clark long term.I just don't think that Indy can give Clark the long term contract he deserves to be paid as top 5 TE. Look at the $$ Dan Graham commanded on the open market. Imagine what Clark's agent is telling him he can get ...

I think any decent TE would thrive with the Colts. Clark would not be near a top 5 tE anywhere else. Plus his blocking is suspect.

think you're wrong. Clark is a former first round pick, guy has a lot of talent. Colts system is nowhere near ideal for good tight end production. Put him on a team with limited receiving options that focuses their passing game around him ala KC or San Diego and he could be a 1000 yard receiver. Before Harrison got hurt this year he was always just a 400-500 yard guy in Indy.

I think he's right. The Colts system isn't ideal for TE production, it it *IS* ideal for slot WR production, and despite his classification as a "TE", Clark has been playing the vast majority of his snaps as a slot WR. Basically, he's been Brandon Stokley. It's gotten to the point that, based on their game-charting data of where he's been lining up and for what percentage of the snaps, Football Outsiders has begun classifying Clark as a WR. If Clark leaves via free agency, then he's either going to a system that is less reliant on the slot WR, or he's going to a system that will use him as a true TE. In either case, his production plummets.The loss of Stokley had far more to do with Clark's sudden spike than the injury to Marvin Harrison. Just look at Clark's numbers in the weeks before Harrison got injured compared to the weeks after. Harrison played in weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7. In those five weeks, Dallas Clark averaged for 4.6 catches for 63 yards and 1 score (pro-rates to 74/1008/16). In the other 9 weeks, Clark has averaged 3.8 grabs for 33 yards and .66 scores (pro-rates to 61/528/11). Clark actually produced more yards in the 5 games with Harrison than he did in the 9 games without.

I guess I get to be the first "hater" to come in and say that Indy overpaid for Sanders.

I really disagree with this. Sanders is as important to his team as any player in the league. He is the heart and soul of that defense and he IS the identity of the defense. They are a completely different team with Sanders, especially their mentality. I think right now he is one of the best defensive players in the game, and even with the injury risks, I like the move by the Colts.Other than the injury risk (and I think it's minimal), I can't see why this is a bad move.

I think Sanders is overrated based on the fact that the defense started playing better in the playoffs last year, which happened to coincide to his return. The Colts actually allowed a higher ypc in the regular season games that Sanders played than they did in the games that he didn't- pretty hard to fathom for such a mythical, all-important figure. Sanders' return definitely had something to do with Indy's defensive improvements, but it's often treated as if it were the one and only reason. I could name probably a dozen different defenders who are more important to their team's defense than Sanders. I think Sanders is one of the best safeties in the league, and I think the Colts *HAD* to resign him, but they definitely overpaid. I think Sanders is almost more important for what he frees up Freeney to do (ignore the run) than he is for what he does himself. That's not meant as an insult- I'd say the same thing about Champ Bailey, for instance- it's just the reality of the situation.I like the signing, I just don't like the cost. I can understand wanting to pay Sanders as if he were the best at his position even if he's not, but I can't understand paying him as if he were durable when he's clearly not.

yes they cansorry I misunderstoof the other

From what I understand, the signing bonus was $8M... The Colts will be able to prorate 1/6th of that (about $133K) under the '07 cap. I *believe* Indianapolis is only under by $7.8M (or very close to it) right now.

From what I understand, the Colts can pro-rate as much as they want over this season. The only limitation on how you pro-rate signing bonuses is that you cannot pro-rate more over later years than you do over earlier years. A $15 million dollar bonus on a 5-year contract, for instance, could be pro-rated 15-0-0-0-0, or 5-4-3-2-1, or 3-3-3-3-3, or 12-1-1-1-0... but it could not be pro-rated 1-2-3-4-5.

But what if he goes to a system ideal for tight end production which is what i'd expect if a team gives him the kind of dollars he'll demand to leave Indy. His targets have increased tremendously this year but i expect them to go back to the norm which is pretty low for most tight ends. Even with his inflated targets this year he's still behind a number of guys including Gates, Gonzo, Cooley, Witten, Winslow and Shockey and Heap when they're healthy. His targets this year are pretty close to the same number as Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis. Think it's a wash right now as to whether his numbers increase or decrease and it's all dependant on which team he ends up on. Still think it's a 80-90% proposition that he stays in Indy and is either given a fair contract or franchised.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Plus he's really the only guy left that's unsigned to use the franchise tag on.

Ryan Lilja, and you could make a case that he is even more important.

Franchise tag for an o-lineman is a lot higher than a tight end. Believe the average of the top 5 tight ends last year was only like 4 1/2 million. O-line was like 8-9 million.Position 2007 Franchise Tag Value Percentage Change from 2006 QB $12.615 million +43.5% OL $9.556 million +36.8% DE $8.664 million +3.7% CB $7.790 million +32.2% WR $7.613 million +23.3% LB $7.206 million +0.5% RB $6.999 million +15.0% DT $6.775 million +19.8% S $4.490 million +9.3% TE $4.371 million +31.2% P/K $2.078 million -15.8%

 

[The Pitbull]

Plus he's really the only guy left that's unsigned to use the franchise tag on.

Ryan Lilja, and you could make a case that he is even more important.

Franchise tag for an o-lineman is a lot higher than a tight end. Believe the average of the top 5 tight ends last year was only like 4 1/2 million. O-line was like 8-9 million.

I understand that. Just pointing out that Clark was not the only unsigned guy left (and probably not the most important).

 

[pizzatyme]

As a Colts fan, I'm a little confused by all of the love for Lilja. What makes anyone think he is someone the Colts would consider tagging?

 

[SSOG]

From what I understand, the Colts can pro-rate as much as they want over this season.

Are you sure about this??

From what I understand, the Colts can pro-rate as much as they want over this season.

Do you have a link for this? Everything I've read says it is averaged out over the length of the contract.

No, I'm not sure about this. I'm not sure if ANYONE is sure about ANYTHING when it comes to the salary cap, except for professional capologists. Still, this is from the link that djcolts provided explaining the cap ramifications of Manning's contract:

Now, in order to ensure that big players can get big signing bonuses (but not force teams to have to absorb a large cap hit, the CBA allows teams to prorate (up to a straight-line proration where each year is the same amount) a signing bonus over the life of the contract (excluding player voidable years, and only up to six (6) years, or five (5) years under certain circumstances). A straight-line proration of the $34.5mil signing bonus would lead to a yearly cap charge of $5.75mil. However, with Manning s contract, while the bonus was spread over the maximum six (6) years, the bonus was accelerated so that the majority of the signing bonus cap hit would come in years 1-3.

He has charts illustrating what is clearly an accelerated proration, too, if you care to follow the link and see.

Prior to this season, Clark's best stats were 37/488/4 and the only reason he's better this year is Marvin being out.

Once again, to quote myself from earlier in the thread... the loss of Stokley had far more to do with Clark's sudden spike than the injury to Marvin Harrison. Just look at Clark's numbers in the weeks before Harrison got injured compared to the weeks after. Harrison played in weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, and 7. In those five weeks, Dallas Clark averaged for 4.6 catches for 63 yards and 1 score (pro-rates to 74/1008/16). In the other 9 weeks, Clark has averaged 3.8 grabs for 33 yards and .66 scores (pro-rates to 61/528/11). Clark actually produced more yards in the 5 games with Harrison than he did in the 9 games without.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

This salary cap stuff is being blown out of proportion. They can renegotiate or rework the older deals and make them more cap friendly if they need to.