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Jobs always seemed to be on a 20-24 month cycle with his vision. Once that time's up, I'm out. I don't care where the company's at. I bought because of Jobs and his ability to sell. I didn't buy because of the end products. I'm sure a little bit of his marketing genius has rubbed off on a few there, but I'm not taking that risk when there is no need. Once most of his vision is complete, I'm out.
There's nothing to unpack. When Jobs died, his ability to convey his vision did as well. HE is what made that company what it is today. I fully expect once they have run the course of doing what he instructed them and they are left to make decisions on their own, things won't be the same.
Steve jobs is a huge part of how apple got to where it is, largely I'd say due to his vision, his drive, his personality, moving industries to bend to his will, based on simply his vision, rather than a product or history of changing the world.In otherwords, Jobs was vital to creating the apple that exists now, but I'm not sure he's vital to running this huge company anymore. Cook was vital in orchestrating the supply chain, and I'd say that right now, their overseas presence is their biggest competitive advantage, along with the product chain they have behind them. They're really firing on all cylinders now, and have the talent in place to continue doing great things for a long time.Cook handles operations. Ivey handles inspiration. Great media and marketing team. And a history of successful products and revolutionizing industries. Jobs left all this behind. He made apple out of nothing essentially, moved industries and brought products into existence through sheer force of will and vision. That's what it took to get apple to where it is now, but for apple to get to the next stage, perhaps it doesn't take a Jobs, perhaps it takes a team like the one there now.
We'll see. I'll happily admit it if I'm wrong, but i don't think I am. I equate it to the "if you have two quarterbacks starting, you don't have a starting quarterback" philosophy. With Jobs he had no one to get in his way. No personality conflicts to deal with. No one questioning his vision because he was everything in one. He didn't have to worry about keeping talent because he was the talent. Jobs was best at diverting attention away from issues. I've not gotten the sense that ANY of those there now can do that as well as Jobs. If Jobs were alive today there would certainly be ads taking shots at the "flash" people. Today, all these other companies are pounding on them and no reply from Apple. I don't think this is "ah ha" type evidence, but rather a small glimpse of what might be a little smoke coming from under the door.Like I said, it might be nothing or it might be something on fire. Time will tell. The most interesting thing will be those who try and rebut any of this by saying "Jobs wasn't THAT important". Of course he was. He meant everything to the company. They can't fill the void completely. The question is will they be able to fill the void enough?
Certainly Jobs was key to apple's success, SPECIFICALLY in pioneering new areas. He had to think different, and pull people to new ways of thinking and operating. He did that with the ipod, with the music industry, the ipad, the iphone, app stores, and seems to be doing that with textbooks and maybe televisions.So his personality was key to getting apple into those new areas, and pulling the products up to a very high standard, but once they're there, the team they have seems to be perfecting those products and they're good at it. So assuming apple simply expands in the areas they have footprints in for the next 3 years, I can still see huge room for growth. Huge. But I have serious questions about apple's ability to move into new areas, post jobs. However, they'll have at their disposal what Jobs didn't have, which was a huge product line, huge distribution channel, and ridiculous money to throw around, along with a pristine reputation. He kinda created all this out of nothing almost, and while it takes a very unique person to do that, it takes a less unique set of people to carry that torch.I think Apple has that, and it should be enough to continue to deliver in the areas they're into right now, which still leaves huge room for growth.
What do you base the bold comments on? What makes you believe these people are capable of continuing? They've always had Jobs and their decisions they are making today are still based on Jobs' vision. They've never been without Jobs so I'm not sure what makes you believe they have all this. This is exactly where I'm skeptical. They had Jobs there to perfect the devices. Jobs was in every decision they made. I'd probably be more optimistic if he came up with the idea and let others run with it, but that wasn't his style.
They were without Jobs and the company tanked. Tech companies don’t do well without their visionary founders. There are tons of examples.
Jobs was always about two years out. How about we let his ideas expire and let these folks begin to make the decisions by themselves before we suggest that Jobs was holding them back
One of my good friends has had 90% of his portfolio (including IRA and Roth) in AAPL since 2007. With mix of common stock and options, let's just say he can now retire at the age of 37. Not the ideal beta but I wish I had his stones and investing conviction.
Stands up, over 4 years later.
This is an interesting case here. The stock has undoubtedly gone parabolic, which is cool when you own it. I have been caught before watching the subsequent crash after the bubble pops and hoping it corrects (they seldom do). But unlike many bubblish scenarios we've seen before AAPL has a PE of 14ish. Nowhere near where it could be on a fair valuation basis. I could easily see this stock being worth a P/E of 30 or so. (AMZN is at 130, which is asinine, IMO). So I hold, and watch, and hope not to get caught like a deer in the headlights when this thing starts tipping over a cliff.
I just bought BRK-B (for the first time) on Thursday
this guy knows tings
