Comparing D. Rhodes and Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Rev]

Most owners, dynasty or otherwise, would laugh if you offered Dominic Rhodes for Larry Johnson in a straight up trade. My question, as a curious Rhodes owner, is how far apart are they, really? Aren't they comparable in many ways, regardless of the fantasy format?

Rhodes is 26 (10 month older than LJ), and is coming into his 5th NFL season on a high powered offense. He is playing behind a talented vet who's had his share of injuries. Though Edge is younger than Priest, he could very well be gone by next year, while Rhodes was paid reasonably well to stick around, which should intrigue dynasty owners. Rhodes has a 1000 yard, 9 TD season on his resume, from the season where he started 10 games as Edge's replacement.

LJ is admittedly bigger (6'1, 230 to Rhodes' 5'9", 203) and, though the same age, is only coming into his 3rd NFL season. He backs up a superior yet aging RB in another high powered offense. He will back up and/or compliment Priest for as long as Priest stays healthy (he's certainly had his share of injuries) and does not retire. Last season, he had over 500 yards and 9 TDs.

Disclaimer: I'm not a paid subscriber to the footballguys site (baby needs shoes, ya know ), so I don't know where they are currently ranked by the boys online. Go ahead and share what you know...

 

[redman]

A skosh.

 

[Otis]

This isn't close, for so many reasons.

 

[Highway Robbery]

I agree their value is close. So what that does is tell you to target Rhodes over LJ since Rhodes is much cheaper.

 

[Ten Yard Fight]

Colts season ticket holder here. Don't buy into Rhodes. He is nowhere near as good as Johnson. By the way, Edge WILL be gone next year. Rhodes will not be handed that job.

 

[redsoxfan]

Instead of looking at how they're similar, why not consider how they're different?One of these is the backup for a "high powered offense" that emphasizes the run, particularly in the red zone.The other backup is also in a "high powered offense" but that team is built around the QB passing the ball, particularly in the red zone.Hmm, I wonder why this straight up trade is not looking so reasonable any more?Here's a homework assignment:Go look up the total fantasy points scored last year by the KC running backs.Now go look up the total fantasy points scored by the Indi running backs.Still not convinced? Go back two years and do the same thing.

 

[Judge Smails]

Edge owners would hate to hear it, but it seems that a Rhodes/Mungro starter would result in more rushing TD's than Mr. James! Seriously, Indy is not as prolific of an offense from an RB standpoint when compared to KC's. LJ is healthy, and proven. Rhodes has been nicked. LJ guaranteed starter if Priest goes down, Rhodes would be iffy based on your other starters. The heat with LJ is that so many people are assuming Priest will go down. Since he started the first preseason game, I'm believin' Padre is pretty OK right now...

 

[Rev]

...Hmm, I wonder why this straight up trade is not looking so reasonable any more?

Here's a homework assignment:

Go look up the total fantasy points scored last year by the KC running backs.

Now go look up the total fantasy points scored by the Indi running backs.

Still not convinced? Go back two years and do the same thing.

Ice down your crotch redsoxfan. I've got a feeling that KC's offense could be changing in a reletively short while, because of impending coaching changes and losing some aging, key players to retirement. They could be a very different team soon, while Indy should have most of their cogs in place for some time. Go ahead and share your league's stats as to the KC/Indy running production. While it would be neat to see how they compare, you have to grant that there is no guarantee that KC will maintain its running dominance in the extended future.

 

[Holy Roller]

Upon first glance, I would think LJ's prospects are much higher. But 3 of the 5 offensive linemen are 32, 34 and 35 respectively (and maybe I'm wrong, but I think they are arguably their best ones). Their #1 QB is 35 years old, and their top WR (not playing TE of course!) is 32. It's not like the core of their offense is too young. It's not too likely that they will be playing at a consistently high level that much longer unless there is a big infusion of youthful talent. LJ certainly has talent, but I don't think projecting into the not-to-distant future means we automatically plug in Priest's number from these last several years when and if he takes over for good in KC. Especially if Vermeil retires again.

 

[pizzatyme]

Colts season ticket holder here. Don't buy into Rhodes. He is nowhere near as good as Johnson. By the way, Edge WILL be gone next year. Rhodes will not be handed that job.

I sit in better seats than you then...hahaColts season ticket holder here too...I know they will hand it to Rhodes next season. He is proven. What do you think they are going to do, draft a rookie and put him in that Offense? No way! Or go pay for a high priced replacement for Edge? Again, no way!

Rhodes is the short-term future of the Colts rushing attack.

LJ has the better prospects, but that gap will close fast if some of the lineman say bu-bye

I like the question posed and I have loaded up on Rhodes in all of my keeper leagues.

 

[Bri]

rhodes is hurt and won't play this week, can't recall what it was

 

[pizzatyme]

rhodes is hurt and won't play this week, can't recall what it was

The dreaded TURF TOE!

 

[Bri]

that should open up Mungro for a late round steal

 

[pizzatyme]

that should open up Mungro for a late round steal

I only see Mungro as the change of pace, pass receiving back. I don't see his numbers improving really. Unless Rhodes is out for more than a game. I guess it's worth a flier but I don't see it. They said it was a "mild" turf toe for whatever that means!

 

[Keys Myaths]

that should open up Mungro for a late round steal

I only see Mungro as the change of pace, pass receiving back. I don't see his numbers improving really. Unless Rhodes is out for more than a game. I guess it's worth a flier but I don't see it. They said it was a "mild" turf toe for whatever that means!

Chris Brown originally had "mild turf toe" last year that killed my (and many others') team last year.

 

[pizzatyme]

that should open up Mungro for a late round steal

I only see Mungro as the change of pace, pass receiving back. I don't see his numbers improving really. Unless Rhodes is out for more than a game. I guess it's worth a flier but I don't see it. They said it was a "mild" turf toe for whatever that means!

Chris Brown originally had "mild turf toe" last year that killed my (and many others') team last year.

Isn't that due to Jeff Fisher calling everything as Questionable? I think he lied about this and tried to get Brown to play it out so salvage respectability. I think the Titans were covering up a lot IIRC.colts usually don't lie about their injures, not that they couldn't bwegin to, but they have been pretty straight forward under Dungy to this point.

take it for what it's worth!

 

[toofunny]

No Rb in the indy offense is getting 20+ rushing TDs. Period.1000 yds 9 tds in 10 games?LJ had 800 yds 11 tds in 6 games.One team is a rushing force, one is a passing force. Next year if Holmes is gone, I'd probably project 18-20 TDs for LJ. Rhodes? Ehhh. 8? If he's even the starter. LJ is locked in as the future. I'm not so sure about Rhodes.

 

[Keys Myaths]

No Rb in the indy offense is getting 20+ rushing TDs. Period.

1000 yds 9 tds in 10 games?

LJ had 800 yds 11 tds in 6 games.

One team is a rushing force, one is a passing force. Next year if Holmes is gone, I'd probably project 18-20 TDs for LJ. Rhodes? Ehhh. 8? If he's even the starter. LJ is locked in as the future. I'm not so sure about Rhodes.

I'll put 100 bucks down right now that if Priest retires, LJ will have no more than 15 TDs next year.Make that 1000.

That OL is OL-D. Once Priest goes, most of them will go as well.

 

[Bri]

that should open up Mungro for a late round steal

I only see Mungro as the change of pace, pass receiving back. I don't see his numbers improving really. Unless Rhodes is out for more than a game. I guess it's worth a flier but I don't see it. They said it was a "mild" turf toe for whatever that means!

turf toe only gets better with rest. Most players by nature can't do that and it gets worse.Flier, like you said, but IMO as good a flier as can be. He isn't even drafted in most leagues.

 

[pizzatyme]

that should open up Mungro for a late round steal

I only see Mungro as the change of pace, pass receiving back. I don't see his numbers improving really. Unless Rhodes is out for more than a game. I guess it's worth a flier but I don't see it. They said it was a "mild" turf toe for whatever that means!

turf toe only gets better with rest. Most players by nature can't do that and it gets worse.Flier, like you said, but IMO as good a flier as can be. He isn't even drafted in most leagues.

True dat! Keep an eye out and ear open for Ricky Williams, no, not that Ricky Williams. Theo ne currently on the Colts roster. He is a super deep sleeper. Fast, good moves laterally, not very big, but more than capable to do what they need him to do, tote the rock a few times a game and be an outlet for Peyton.

 

[Bri]

I didn't think he was with them anymore

 

[toofunny]

No Rb in the indy offense is getting 20+ rushing TDs. Period.

1000 yds 9 tds in 10 games?

LJ had 800 yds 11 tds in 6 games.

One team is a rushing force, one is a passing force. Next year if Holmes is gone, I'd probably project 18-20 TDs for LJ. Rhodes? Ehhh. 8? If he's even the starter. LJ is locked in as the future. I'm not so sure about Rhodes.

I'll put 100 bucks down right now that if Priest retires, LJ will have no more than 15 TDs next year.Make that 1000.

That OL is OL-D. Once Priest goes, most of them will go as well.

Only 15? So only a top 5 RB?Rhodes wouldn't even touch that.

 

[wannabee]

I see the Colts, sans Edge, using Mungro/Rhodes the same way the Packers use Davenpoop/Fisher. They use both players to their strength thus mitigating both player's ff value and improving each player's NFL value.

 

[Rev]

No Rb in the indy offense is getting 20+ rushing TDs. Period.

1000 yds 9 tds in 10 games?

LJ had 800 yds 11 tds in 6 games.

You misread the stats as far as RUSHING TD's are concerned. LJ did not rush for 800 yards and 11 TD's in 11 games. He had 581 and 9. You combined his receiving and passing stats, but then you turned around and compared them to Rhodes' rushing stats alone. If you add Rhodes receiving stats to his 1000/9 rushing stats in his big season, you come up with 1328 yards in 10 games (he had no additional receiving TD's that season).

Apples to Apples please...

 

[Holy Roller]

No Rb in the indy offense is getting 20+ rushing TDs. Period.

1000 yds 9 tds in 10 games?

LJ had 800 yds 11 tds in 6 games.

One team is a rushing force, one is a passing force. Next year if Holmes is gone, I'd probably project 18-20 TDs for LJ. Rhodes? Ehhh. 8? If he's even the starter. LJ is locked in as the future. I'm not so sure about Rhodes.

I think you mean one team HAS BEEN a rushing force. Again, key members of their offense are OLD. I'm thinking back to the Raiders just a couple years ago with Gannon, Garner, Rice and Brown. Except KC also has over half their o-line along with Priest, Kennison and Green in this category. Their future replacements such as LJ could be decent, but I hardly think it is a simple matter of looking at the past few years' amazing stats and extrapolating. That offense will look a lot different in a year or two.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

No Rb in the indy offense is getting 20+ rushing TDs. Period.

1000 yds 9 tds in 10 games?

LJ had 800 yds 11 tds in 6 games.

One team is a rushing force, one is a passing force. Next year if Holmes is gone, I'd probably project 18-20 TDs for LJ. Rhodes? Ehhh. 8? If he's even the starter. LJ is locked in as the future. I'm not so sure about Rhodes.

I'll put 100 bucks down right now that if Priest retires, LJ will have no more than 15 TDs next year.Make that 1000.

That OL is OL-D. Once Priest goes, most of them will go as well.

:muffledlaugh:Hilarious stuff. Will they all move in with Priest too?

 

[Rev]

No Rb in the indy offense is getting 20+ rushing TDs. Period.

1000 yds 9 tds in 10 games?

LJ had 800 yds 11 tds in 6 games.

One team is a rushing force, one is a passing force. Next year if Holmes is gone, I'd probably project 18-20 TDs for LJ. Rhodes? Ehhh. 8? If he's even the starter. LJ is locked in as the future. I'm not so sure about Rhodes.

I think you mean one team HAS BEEN a rushing force. Again, key members of their offense are OLD. I'm thinking back to the Raiders just a couple years ago with Gannon, Garner, Rice and Brown. Except KC also has over half their o-line along with Priest, Kennison and Green in this category. Their future replacements such as LJ could be decent, but I hardly think it is a simple matter of looking at the past few years' amazing stats and extrapolating. That offense will look a lot different in a year or two.

 

[toofunny]

No Rb in the indy offense is getting 20+ rushing TDs. Period.

1000 yds 9 tds in 10 games?

LJ had 800 yds 11 tds in 6 games.

You misread the stats as far as RUSHING TD's are concerned. LJ did not rush for 800 yards and 11 TD's in 11 games. He had 581 and 9. You combined his receiving and passing stats, but then you turned around and compared them to Rhodes' rushing stats alone. If you add Rhodes receiving stats to his 1000/9 rushing stats in his big season, you come up with 1328 yards in 10 games (he had no additional receiving TD's that season).

Apples to Apples please...

*lol*LJ 540 yds, 9 tds in 6 games.

Rhodes 1048 yds 9 TDs in 11 games.

You're also hacking together Rhodes stats with the regular season and playoffs. And even if you do, it's 1048, 9 tds, in 11 games. Again 540/9 in 6 games. With rec, 1300 ish yds, 9 tds in 11 games. Again 800/11 in 6 games. It's fairly clear who had more production. And one did it last year. And one did it 4 years ago. That's not a huge factor, but it's another edge for LJ.

So ANYWAY you slice it, LJ has put up better production. Come up with any stats you want. Rushing, Rec, rec/rushing, home games, away games. From 2001, 2002, 2004.

And the Chiefs line isn't old.

Roaf 35

Waters 28

Wiegmann 32

Will Shields 34

Black 25

And Brett Williams is 25.

I'm sorry the Chiefs line isn't going to suddenly disappear. There's this thing called the draft. It lets you select new and YOUNGER players. And if you have a great system, great coaches, you can keep your O line solid for years and years. Building a great O line is about commitment to the o line, not getting lucky on one or two picks.

 

[Marc Levin]

Most owners, dynasty or otherwise, would laugh if you offered Dominic Rhodes for Larry Johnson in a straight up trade. My question, as a curious Rhodes owner, is how far apart are they, really? Aren't they comparable in many ways, regardless of the fantasy format?

VERY VERY far apart.Rhodes was "ok" when he filled in for Edge. Larry Johnson put up numbers similar to Priest's when he filled in.

Take the starter away - which of those two backs would you want.

Now add in that LJ sees more every game work behind a better line - and factor in each player's injury risk, and you have your answer.

 

[Marc Levin]

And the Chiefs line isn't old.Roaf 35Waters 28Wiegmann 32Will Shields 34Black 25And Brett Williams is 25.I'm sorry the Chiefs line isn't going to suddenly disappear.

The Broncos' OL is a top-5 run blockin gline and has been for nearly 10 years. The Chiefs will be a running game force for the foreseeable future. The only ? is whether, after Vermeil retires, will they continue running their #1 back the way they have in the past.

 

[Rev]

And the Chiefs line isn't old.

Roaf 35

Waters 28

Wiegmann 32

Will Shields 34

Black 25

And Brett Williams is 25.

Not old? When 3 of your key linemen are in their mid-thirties, you can't make a very good longevity argument. Factor in the reality that Trent Grean is a 35-year-old quarterback who's leading wide receiver (not including TE's) is 32, a coach who will soon move on, leaving an offensive scheme that is likely to change dramatically, and you've got an aging issue. Not saying they'll suck this year or next, but you must admit that their future production could very well diminish. For a good example of the age factor, see the Oakland Raidors after their superbowl bid.

Another angle to consider for the Johnson/Rhodes comparison is: Who's back up would you rather have if (that's a big if) all remain healthy? Edge will be gone in 1 year, and Rhodes will get the shot. Priest will stick around as long as he wants to, or as long as his body allows.

 

[Rev]

Bump to reconsider the converstion.

Obviously LJ's value skyrocketed after he took over last season and produced at a monstrous clip. However, he is playing on an aging offense and in a system that will change dramatically over the next few years.

Meanwhile, the Colts appear to have alot of confidence in Rhodes, at least in how their are talking right now. If he starts the season as the starter in an offense as rediculously explosive as the Colts, his value has to be considerable.

All told, if Rhodes can secure the starting spot (certainly not a guarantee at this point), how does his value compare to premier backs such as LJ, especially in light of the system he'll be running in?

 

[TME]

So, the question really is, how will the Colt's starting RB (regardless of who as you have a lot of "if's" in your statements/questions) compare to the other top backs?

I think whoever the starting RB is in Indy will be RB1 (probably top 10) and have a shot a being just below the elite tier, assuming no RBBC. There's simply too much offense to go around and the RB will get his share. Looking at Edge's production in that system and then discounting for the fact that whoever that RB is will most likely not be as talented as Edge, you have to figure 1,250 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and 10 total TDs.

But, you will not see that value surface in Rhodes until we have some comfort that he will indeed be the guy this year (i.e. probably not until April 29th.)

$0.02

 

[lod2005]

They are so far apart, you could fit the sun in between the two and still have room for uranus on both sides.

 

[Koya]

In case enough people haven't chimed in...

NOT EVEN REMOTELY CLOSE.

 

[Otis]

So, the question really is, how will the Colt's starting RB (regardless of who as you have a lot of "if's" in your statements/questions) compare to the other top backs?

I think whoever the starting RB is in Indy will be RB1 (probably top 10) and have a shot a being just below the elite tier, assuming no RBBC. There's simply too much offense to go around and the RB will get his share. Looking at Edge's production in that system and then discounting for the fact that whoever that RB is will most likely not be as talented as Edge, you have to figure 1,250 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and 10 total TDs.

But, you will not see that value surface in Rhodes until we have some comfort that he will indeed be the guy this year (i.e. probably not until April 29th.)

$0.02

 

[Rev]

They are so far apart, you could fit the sun in between the two and still have room for uranus on both sides.

Helpful. Good facts and sound arguments.

Thanks.

 

[John 14:6]

They are so far apart, you could fit the sun in between the two and still have room for uranus on both sides.

So can we pencil in LJ, Rhodes, and Deshaun Foster for 20+ TDs next year?

 

[monk]

Bump to reconsider the converstion.

Obviously LJ's value skyrocketed after he took over last season and produced at a monstrous clip. However, he is playing on an aging offense and in a system that will change dramatically over the next few years.

Meanwhile, the Colts appear to have alot of confidence in Rhodes, at least in how their are talking right now. If he starts the season as the starter in an offense as rediculously explosive as the Colts, his value has to be considerable.

All told, if Rhodes can secure the starting spot (certainly not a guarantee at this point), how does his value compare to premier backs such as LJ, especially in light of the system he'll be running in?

You're absolutely right ! I have the #1 pick and I am taking Rhodes!

 

[David Yudkin]

As my crystal ball sees it, the Colts will sign a body at RB (either one of the lackluster ones currently on the market or one available after June 1st). They will also snag a RB in the first round of the draft, and this becomes a RBBC similar to Miami last year unless someone emerges as the clear best option and puts up numbers that far outclass the other guys on the roster.

 

[The Ref]

So, the question really is, how will the Colt's starting RB (regardless of who as you have a lot of "if's" in your statements/questions) compare to the other top backs?

I think whoever the starting RB is in Indy will be RB1 (probably top 10) and have a shot a being just below the elite tier, assuming no RBBC. There's simply too much offense to go around and the RB will get his share. Looking at Edge's production in that system and then discounting for the fact that whoever that RB is will most likely not be as talented as Edge, you have to figure 1,250 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards and 10 total TDs.

But, you will not see that value surface in Rhodes until we have some comfort that he will indeed be the guy this year (i.e. probably not until April 29th.)

$0.02

Everyone is guessing untill April 29th on this. I am as optimistic as someone who has Rhodes on his keeper roster can be right now, but if they take a back in the first round then the dream is over.

 

[Rev]

Everyone is guessing untill April 29th on this. I am as optimistic as someone who has Rhodes on his keeper roster can be right now, but if they take a back in the first round then the dream is over.

A late 1st round back is no shoe in to start on any team, especially when competing with a veteran who knows the system. The Colts could easily go after a back to compete with Rhodes, but could easily keep the rookie as a backup if Rhodes performs well.

 

[theedge]

As my crystal ball sees it, the Colts will sign a body at RB (either one of the lackluster ones currently on the market or one available after June 1st). They will also snag a RB in the first round of the draft, and this becomes a RBBC similar to Miami last year unless someone emerges as the clear best option and puts up numbers that far outclass the other guys on the roster.

The more I think about it, the Colts won't take a RB with their 1st round pick. They're content (not estatic) with Rhodes but they need an upgrade at DB. I think they go for a FS or a corner in round one. They believe Jackson can play the FS position if the corner they like is there. Or they take a FS, and leave Jackson at corner, if the right one is there. (Who knows who the right ones are.) The other two options are 1. Strong side backer or 2. trade down and get an extra 2nd and 4th?my2cents