Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
The Sunday games wrecked my picks last week (so much for the Colts being a mortal lock - that's why they play the games, as they say).
Anyhow, these will be brief as there are just four things to really discuss (two games and two Over/Unders).
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
New York Giants (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers - (1 star)
With the temperatures so freezing, it's hard to see much offense here. Sure Favre allegedly accels in cold temps, but he's 6-7 below 30 degrees in his last 13 starts. Also, he is on the NFL's youngest team - a group of guys with next to no playoff experience nor history of playing in the cold. That could hurt. Add in that the Packers love to spread the field and throw it around, and who knows how the WRs will react. Green Bay practiced this week with frozen footballs just to get used to the feel of it, but it will be interesting as the temperatures dip down to below zero after sunset.
The Giants and Eli have absolutely nothing to lose here. They come into the game as the decided underdog, a team that no one really expected to still be around this weekend. They're playing with house money, and if Coughlin manages it right they'll play the same way - nothing to lose, lots to gain. The key for them is pressure from the front four on Favre - if Strahan and Osi can get there without costing them coverage (a huge area of weakness right now with so many injuries), they have a chance. Add in Brandon Jacobs and Bradshaw in the backfield, and they have a decent shot moving the ball methodically with the ground game and Toomer and Boss catching short passes.
Overall, you have to like Favre and his targets plus his revitalized rushing duo of Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson. Sure they are young, but Favre can lead this group to Arizona. That's my call, but it will be close. Green Bay 24, Giants 17. That 0.5 matters this time.
Now, given that, I could see turnovers and special teams playing a huge role. Check this stat - only four field goals beyond 40 yards have ever been made at Lambeau in the postseason, and all of them were by the Packers. Again, like in New England, expect weather and cold to really affect the kickers and reduce their contributions. That holds the score down.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (OVER 41) - (1 star)
This is really a tough call considering I'm taking the Pack, 24-17. That puts it exactly at 41. Truth is I don't want either side of this pick, but to cover all four talking points I'll mention that it really is 50/50 at a "41". I'd rather tease it either way if I'm playing it at all, but in weather games who knows how it falls. I'd stay away.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
San Diego Chargers (+14.5) at New England Patriots - (2 stars)
I like New England to win, but the Chargers should cover a very big number. Rivers has played above his head lately, thanks in part to Chris Chambers' usual late-season heroics (after his typical 10-12 week fantasy disappointments).
The Pats haven't covered a big number in nearly two months. The weather will be bad (cold, slight wind - expected to be about 20 degrees and 10-15 MPH), so that should favor the Chargers.
If San Diego gameplans this right, they will have the same "12th man" that Baltimore and Philly had - the elements. The Eagles and the Ravens didn't have to cover Moss deep as the wind did that job - and that's what I expect here. Cromartie should single up on Moss and San Diego will put 8 in the box, taking away short passes when they can to minimize Welker and Watson. Will it be enough? Probably not, but I'll take my chances with 14.5 points.
San Diego's offensive game plan should focus on both ball control and conservativism. With the wind, Gates, and Rivers' injuries - they should run the ball 40+ times. I expect LT2 and Turner to get a lot of work (what are they saving either for, especially Turner? Run him into the ground). Their best hope is to do three things - (1) never have a 3-and-out series, (2) have 6+ plays on every drive, and (3) have two 10+ play drives in the game. If they can accomplish that, they should have 60+ offensive plays and be in this enough so where it could be a 23-20 theft victory - but I think it is more like New England 24, San Diego 10.
Lastly, turnovers and special teams are huge. San Diego is living off of turnovers, and the Pats dominated that stat in the first 12 weeks or so. Brady was 45-5 at TD/Int ratio at one point, but he's thrown 8 TDs vs. 3 picks since then - still really good, but much more human-like. The kickers will have a very hard time with any field goals, and don't expect much beyond 40 yards (expect a lot of 4th-and-short going for it between the 30 and 40).
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (UNDER 48) - (2 stars)
As mentioned above, I don't see a ton of scoring. I feel most comfortable with the under here. Patriots 24-10.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
New England (-8.5) and Green Bay (-1.5) - (3 stars)
Taking the two favorites seems wise, and teasing them together feels like the best play of the day.
of the Week (and Playoffs) - NE / GB teaser. Best straight selection - NE/SD under 48.
Remember, if you are playing these games, bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
The Sunday games wrecked my picks last week (so much for the Colts being a mortal lock - that's why they play the games, as they say).
Anyhow, these will be brief as there are just four things to really discuss (two games and two Over/Unders).
Here we go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
New York Giants (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers - (1 star)
With the temperatures so freezing, it's hard to see much offense here. Sure Favre allegedly accels in cold temps, but he's 6-7 below 30 degrees in his last 13 starts. Also, he is on the NFL's youngest team - a group of guys with next to no playoff experience nor history of playing in the cold. That could hurt. Add in that the Packers love to spread the field and throw it around, and who knows how the WRs will react. Green Bay practiced this week with frozen footballs just to get used to the feel of it, but it will be interesting as the temperatures dip down to below zero after sunset.
The Giants and Eli have absolutely nothing to lose here. They come into the game as the decided underdog, a team that no one really expected to still be around this weekend. They're playing with house money, and if Coughlin manages it right they'll play the same way - nothing to lose, lots to gain. The key for them is pressure from the front four on Favre - if Strahan and Osi can get there without costing them coverage (a huge area of weakness right now with so many injuries), they have a chance. Add in Brandon Jacobs and Bradshaw in the backfield, and they have a decent shot moving the ball methodically with the ground game and Toomer and Boss catching short passes.
Overall, you have to like Favre and his targets plus his revitalized rushing duo of Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson. Sure they are young, but Favre can lead this group to Arizona. That's my call, but it will be close. Green Bay 24, Giants 17. That 0.5 matters this time.
Now, given that, I could see turnovers and special teams playing a huge role. Check this stat - only four field goals beyond 40 yards have ever been made at Lambeau in the postseason, and all of them were by the Packers. Again, like in New England, expect weather and cold to really affect the kickers and reduce their contributions. That holds the score down.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (OVER 41) - (1 star)
This is really a tough call considering I'm taking the Pack, 24-17. That puts it exactly at 41. Truth is I don't want either side of this pick, but to cover all four talking points I'll mention that it really is 50/50 at a "41". I'd rather tease it either way if I'm playing it at all, but in weather games who knows how it falls. I'd stay away.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
San Diego Chargers (+14.5) at New England Patriots - (2 stars)
I like New England to win, but the Chargers should cover a very big number. Rivers has played above his head lately, thanks in part to Chris Chambers' usual late-season heroics (after his typical 10-12 week fantasy disappointments).
The Pats haven't covered a big number in nearly two months. The weather will be bad (cold, slight wind - expected to be about 20 degrees and 10-15 MPH), so that should favor the Chargers.
If San Diego gameplans this right, they will have the same "12th man" that Baltimore and Philly had - the elements. The Eagles and the Ravens didn't have to cover Moss deep as the wind did that job - and that's what I expect here. Cromartie should single up on Moss and San Diego will put 8 in the box, taking away short passes when they can to minimize Welker and Watson. Will it be enough? Probably not, but I'll take my chances with 14.5 points.
San Diego's offensive game plan should focus on both ball control and conservativism. With the wind, Gates, and Rivers' injuries - they should run the ball 40+ times. I expect LT2 and Turner to get a lot of work (what are they saving either for, especially Turner? Run him into the ground). Their best hope is to do three things - (1) never have a 3-and-out series, (2) have 6+ plays on every drive, and (3) have two 10+ play drives in the game. If they can accomplish that, they should have 60+ offensive plays and be in this enough so where it could be a 23-20 theft victory - but I think it is more like New England 24, San Diego 10.
Lastly, turnovers and special teams are huge. San Diego is living off of turnovers, and the Pats dominated that stat in the first 12 weeks or so. Brady was 45-5 at TD/Int ratio at one point, but he's thrown 8 TDs vs. 3 picks since then - still really good, but much more human-like. The kickers will have a very hard time with any field goals, and don't expect much beyond 40 yards (expect a lot of 4th-and-short going for it between the 30 and 40).
San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (UNDER 48) - (2 stars)
As mentioned above, I don't see a ton of scoring. I feel most comfortable with the under here. Patriots 24-10.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
New England (-8.5) and Green Bay (-1.5) - (3 stars)
Taking the two favorites seems wise, and teasing them together feels like the best play of the day.
of the Week (and Playoffs) - NE / GB teaser. Best straight selection - NE/SD under 48.Remember, if you are playing these games, bet with your head and not over it.
Enjoy the games.
