Bob Magaw
Footballguy
article by john hansen of fantasy guru, now also at yahoo...
there may be a few inaccuracies in here, but from a cursory look, this looked typically well written...
contract info can be helpful in "planning your day" in dynasty leagues, and this is admirably thorough and systematic...
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nfl/news?s...u-contract-2010
"For the majority of the time since we started publishing this contract-year overview, it’s been a relatively straightforward piece. As much as some players may want to deny it, money is a great motivator. So the premise is simple: Find guys due for free agency because they want to get paid, and it may help an owner make a final decision on that last keeper or that late-round sleeper.
But the last two years have been different without a new Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NFL owners and the NFLPA. Under the current CBA, in an uncapped year, players become unrestricted free agents only after accruing six years of service time, instead of the four years required from 2009 and previous (capped years). The 2010 season, of course, is an uncapped year, and with the CBA expiring in March of 2011 – assuming no deal is reached – free-agent activity will stop anyway.
So here’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to put together a list of guys who are in the last year of their contracts, and sort them by service time. We’re only listing the higher-end guys, too. The players with six or more years of service time by next offseason would be unrestricted free agents under the 2010 rules. The players with five or fewer years of service time would be restricted free agents, again under this season’s rules. We’ll reiterate that these rules, barring an extension of the current CBA, are highly unlikely to stay the same (theoretically, the UFA/RFA designation might not even exist in a new CBA), but it’s the only way to approach this article at this time.
QUARTERBACKS
Six or more years of service time after 2010:
Tom Brady(notes) (NE) – Brady isn’t going anywhere, and the Patriots haven’t drafted anyone with the pedigree needed to replace such a legend, so his eventual replacement probably isn’t on the team right now. Owner Bob Kraft is confident Brady will be signed, but there has been no timetable set to get negotiations going, and there isn’t a deadline to get a new deal done. The Patriots have made waves in the offseason with their negotiations with OG Logan Mankins(notes), who criticized the team for treating him poorly in regard to a new long-term deal he requested. Certainly, the Patriots would never let it get to that point with Brady, but as we’ve seen in recent years, they aren’t afraid to play hardball. Brady’s situation is much different, since he’s been the key cog in their three championship teams and actually took less money in his previous deal to help the team sign big name free agents like WR Randy Moss(notes). While his play was erratic early last season coming off the horrific knee injury that ended his 2008 season in Week 1, Brady slowly worked his way back into game shape and ended up winning Comeback Player of the Year, thanks to his 4398 yards and 28 TDs with just 13 INTs. To his credit, Brady has avoided the subject of a contract extension in the offseason, instead turning his focus to on-field activities. There has been some talk of an overall “disconnect” between Brady and the team, but we’d expect this deal to be done sooner than later even with uncertainty surrounding next season’s labor agreement (or lack thereof).
Peyton Manning(notes) (Ind) – There has been talk of the Colts making Manning the richest paid player in the league when he gets his new contract, and considering he might be the best player in the history of the league at any position, that makes sense. According to various reports, Manning’s new deal could be worth $100 million over five years. Owner Bill Polian has said he is confident Manning will get a new deal before his contract runs out this season. Obviously, Manning will not be going anywhere. He’s coming off neck surgery, which he’s said has eliminated the need to get treatment three times a day as he had been doing for the last four years. Otherwise, Manning’s as good as ever at 34 years old, capping off one of the best statistical seasons of his career with a Super Bowl appearance. We know how good he is as a pure passer, but what often gets overlooked is his ability to make everyone around him better, specifically his O-line. The Colts have never had to pay for a superstar LT, and they sure as hell don’t have one this season in Charlie Johnson(notes), but that’s because Manning knows how to control the defense and he rarely takes sacks. He’s never missed a game in his career (210 straight, including playoffs), and that alone is worth giving the man a monster deal. Well that, and the fact that some people – like us, for example – think he’s the best QB in the history of mankind.
Donovan McNabb(notes) (Phi) – McNabb received a “financial apology” from the Eagles after the 2008 season, which raised his salary, but didn’t extend his contract. Now he finds himself a 125 or so miles down the road as the starting QB of the NFC East rival Redskins. After very little talk of a contract extension, reports came out in early June that McNabb and the team could be talking about a new deal as early as this summer. That’s probably going to happen, but we’d understand if the team wanted to wait. McNabb hasn’t exactly been the pillar of health in his long career, having played a full season just once since 2004, and his struggles with accuracy have been well documented. Switching teams this late in a career usually turns out badly (he turns 34 in November), but head coach Mike Shanahan’s system is a good fit for the veteran QB, since Shanahan likes his QBs to throw while on the run, and throw it deep, two things McNabb does well. Shanahan also loves to use shifts and motions to dictate matchups and define throws, which is good for McNabb, who’s never been a good progression reader or a quick decision maker. So he does find himself in a good situation for what he’s capable of doing. Whether he gets his new deal before the season or waits until he proves himself remains to be seen. If he doesn’t, he’ll not only be motivated playing in the same division as his former club, but he’ll also have the added incentive of playing for what would likely be the last big contract of his playing career.
Brett Favre(notes) (Min) – If Favre wants to play next season, he’ll have no problem finding employment, but it hasn’t even been confirmed he’ll play this season. But certainly, all indications point to his returning here in 2010. He was expected last year to be an obvious upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson(notes), but no one could have expected him to put up one of the best seasons of his career at age 40. Obviously, he can still sling it with the best of them, but what was most impressive was limiting his usually high interception total to just 7. He also made stars out of WRs Sidney Rice(notes) and Percy Harvin(notes) almost immediately and without much time to work with them in the offseason, since he took so long to make his decision to come back. Favre had ankle surgery, which according to the world-renowned Dr. James Andrews went well, but obviously shows Favre is no spring chicken. Remember, he also had surgery on his throwing arm to correct the problems he was having throwing the ball with the Jets. We’d have to believe that this will be his final season, but you probably could have said the same thing three years ago. Money’s probably not a big issue, but the guy does command at least $12 million a year these days, which isn’t chump change for anyone.
Matt Hasselbeck(notes) (Sea) – Hasselbeck is one of the few true “contract guys” on this QB list because he is at an obvious crossroads in his career this season. He got beat up for the second straight year, missing two games because of a rib injury, which was on the heels of a 2008 season in which a back injury limited him to seven games. Playing behind one of the worst O-lines in the league with a shoddy receiving corps didn’t help much, and Hasselbeck threw a career-high 17 INTs. The new regime in Seattle is definitely concerned, as evidenced by acquisition of former Chargers third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst(notes), whom they handed a two-year deal worth $8 million. Hasselbeck will be 35 early in the season, and the team is definitely in a bit of a transitional phase, so even a decent season might not guarantee he’s with the team next year. If he can get near his seasonal averages with the Seahawks, which is about 2,900 yards and 18 TDs, it would probably earn him a crack at a starting job elsewhere, maybe in a bit of a mentor role like A.J. Feeley(notes) and Sam Bradford(notes) in St. Louis this season. His health is a serious issue, and it’s definitely affecting his ability to stand tall in the pocket, so we’d have to be worried about a situation like what happened to Marc Bulger(notes), who took so many shots that he became gun shy. He’s definitely fighting this year for a job and a new contract in 2011.
Michael Vick(notes) (Phi) – The Eagles were the only team to give Vick a chance last season, but it appeared his days as a starter are behind him. In his defense, Philly never used him as a prototypical QB, utilizing him instead more in Wildcat packages where they could take advantage of his legs – and to be fair, Vick was coming off an extremely long layoff. Vick hoped to land somewhere as a starter this season, but the Eagles ended up picking up their team option on him when a trade suitor could not be found, so Vick is expected to go into the season as the backup to new starter Kevin Kolb(notes). With only rookie Mike Kafka(notes) on the roster now, Vick’s not going anywhere and will stick as Kolb’s primary backup. That means he’s only a Kolb injury away from starting for the Eagles, which would give him a chance to prove he can still play QB in this league. It may be tough for Vick to find work, since his dog fighting issues are still fresh in everyone’s mind, as evidenced by his recently being voted the most hated man in sports for a second straight season. The little “incident” in late-June at his birthday party wasn’t good to hear, either. But if he plays a lot and plays well, there will certainly be a few league owners willing to take a long hard look at him. So if he gets on the field as the starter, there may not be a more motivated player in the league than Vick in ’10.
Five or fewer years of service time after 2010:
Trent Edwards(notes) (Buf) – With or without a new regime in Buffalo this season, Edwards was going to have to play well to save his job with the team this year. As it turns out he’s working with a new coaching staff, which is good because there’s a very slight chance they may not quite realize how bad he’s been over the last season and a half. He entered last season as the starter, but ultimately ended up trading time with Ryan Fitzpatrick(notes) and Brian Brohm(notes) by the time the year ended. Poor play by both Edwards and his O-line resulted in just eight appearances and no guaranteed spot as the starter heading into this season. While he may be the most talented passer on the team, his 2008 concussion turned him into a player who’s afraid to stare down the gun barrel, something he may have to do a lot of behind that O-line, one that didn’t improve much in the offseason. His receiving corps is one of the worst in the league, and having to face the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins six times doesn’t help matters, either. The good news is he probably has the best chance to start, so this is a huge year for him. If he struggles, we wouldn’t be surprised to see new head coach Chan Gailey give Edwards the hook this fall without much warning – and then set his sights on Washington’s Jake Locker in the 2011 draft.
RUNNING BACKS
Six or more years of service time after 2010:
Cedric Benson(notes) (Cin) – Benson shocked everyone in 2008 with a great performance in Cincinnati that saw the Bengals and Texans fighting over his services in the spring of 2009. He, of course, ended up coming back to the Bengals and raised his game further last season, running for 1251 yards and 6 TDs in just 13 games. Cincy’s offense revolved around the run, since its passing game was never able to get on track. This year, despite major improvements at the WR position, the Bengals should still lean on Benson to carry their offense, since it’s still first and foremost an offense that feeds off the power running game. Now, there have been some reports in June regarding Benson and an extension, but nothing has been announced as of early July. Clearly, the Bengals can’t afford to let Benson go anywhere, so we’d expect this deal to get done. If they don’t do a deal before the season starts and Benson can repeat his 2009 performance, his services will be fought over by more than just two teams. And while it truly seems as if Benson has completely turned his career around and is doing everything he needs to do to excel, it would certainly make fantasy players feel a little better about his prospects this year if he were playing for a fat new contract.
Ricky Williams(notes) (Mia) – Williams has been a bit of an enigma to say the least, but there’s no disputing the fact that he’s always had the talent to be one of the best at his position – of all time. His off the field interests, whether they include enjoying the natural resources of the Earth, holistic healing, or his yoga studies, always seemed to be his passion, while football was considered a job. But with age comes wisdom, and he seems to finally get it. Of course, right on cue, he’s now talking about retirement. Williams was fantastic last season, especially when the team became more of a conventional offense when Ronnie Brown(notes) was lost for the season after a foot injury. Brown is still working his way back, so Williams could end up starting the season ahead of Brown on the depth chart. Even at 33, Williams is in wonderful shape, partly because of his workout regiment and in part because of the years off, which gave his body a respite. So if he does decide to return in 2011, the odds are good that he’ll command a decent chunk of change (likely from Miami). But let’s be honest; Rickey’s not a guy who’s too worried about contracts.
Sammy Morris(notes) (NE) – Morris is an AFC East lifer, spending his eight seasons in Buffalo, Miami, and the last three in New England. Much like the other backs in the team’s RBBC, Morris’ role changes regularly. He’s dealt with a slew of injuries – specifically a knee problem last year that took him out from Weeks 7 through 11 – as well as multiple committee situations, but he plays well whenever he’s healthy and getting the ball. The backfield is crowded again this season, and Morris joins Laurence Maroney(notes), Fred Taylor(notes), and Kevin Faulk(notes) as contract year guys, so the battle for playing time will be that much more important. Once Taylor went down last year, Morris was clearly the guy before his own injury opened the door for Maroney. Yet Maroney’s inconsistent play probably gives the Belichick-favorite Morris a chance to get a healthy number of carries if Taylor has more issues (which is likely). At 33, Morris is nearing the end of his career, but Belichick has no problem rolling with an older back, as long as he’s producing. Morris knows that, so he’ll be looking to do whatever it takes to stick around. Granted, that’s nothing close to an assurance he’ll stay healthy, but it helps.
Fred Taylor (NE) – Taylor got a two-year deal from the Patriots before last season and entered the 2009 campaign as the starter, but a nasty ankle injury in Week 4 knocked him out until Week 16. He did look better than Laurence Maroney before the injury, and the team went right back to him when he returned, but durability has been an issue throughout his career, and at 34 years old, we have to wonder if the wheels have officially fallen off. He’ll be in a RBBC once again in New England, but if he’s healthy, Taylor should get a chance to reclaim the role he had to start last season. He sure seems like a long shot to command another contract, but stranger things have certainly happened. The guy does take excellent care of his body.
Kevin Faulk (NE) – Faulk’s on this list because he signed a one-year deal with the only team he’s ever played for, and despite the loyalty New England has shown him, he’s probably on a one-year renewal situation for the rest of his time with the Pats. Faulk now enters his 12th season, and despite being 34 years old, he’s still a solid 3rd-down back who manages to find a role in the team’s ever-changing RBBC, and he always seems to get the call in big spots because the team trusts him so much. We wouldn’t expect him to go anywhere else other than to the NFL retirement home if he decided to leave New England.
Five or fewer years of service time after 2010:
Joseph Addai(notes) (Ind) – Addai’s fast start to his career (2842 total yards, 23 TDs in first two seasons) may have set the bar a little too high, so he’s fallen a little flat as a fantasy commodity the last two seasons. Over the last two years, he’s put up 1914 total yards and a nice TD total of 20, but he’s struggled with injuries and at times has exhibited a lack of urgency and fire in his play. But when the Colts drafted Donald Brown(notes) in the first round of the 2009 draft, we wondered aloud if it would light a fire under Addai, and it certainly appeared to do just that. Brown began the season as the “closer,” the back they looked to when they had a lead in the fourth quarter. But injuries slowed the rookie down, which gave Addai the chance to remind everyone why he, like Brown, was taken in the first round. Addai looked quick and more decisive, and he continued to be a very effective pass catcher. Now things get interesting because Brown has a season under his belt and should be better prepared for the rigors of a full NFL season. And with Addai entering the final year of his rookie deal, that fire Brown lit under him better be burning as intensely as ever because Brown’s a quality player capable of taking his job at any given time. Brown will definitely cut into Addai’s touches this season as long as he stays healthy, so Addai will really have to impress if he wants to stay in Indy. Under the previous CBA framework, he’d be completely free to sign anywhere after the ’10 season, which still could be the case, so he’ll be plenty motivated.
DeAngelo Williams(notes) (Car) – Halfway through his rookie contract two years ago, Williams was considered a slight first-round bust, but a ballistic 2008 season followed by another impressive year in 2009 changed his career trajectory for the better. Williams is now part of what we believe is one of the finest backfields in league history, and he and Jonathan Stewart(notes) have perfected the two-back system that has become commonplace in the increasingly physical league. Yet, unlike many other comparable situations, both guys have embraced it. They know that sharing the rock will extend their careers and, in turn, make them more money. When one is out of the mix, the other has the ability to become a top fantasy back, but the offense is at its best when they’re both healthy. Williams has had to carry the load at times when Stewart dealt with Achilles and toe issues, and Stewart took over when Williams hurt his ankle at the back-end of last season. While trade talks always seem to mention Williams’ name, especially in a contract season, the team has been adamant about keeping him around. If he continues his solid play, it should be interesting to see what kind of contract offers he gets from the Panthers to stay in the tandem backfield or from other teams that may want to make him their lead back. Williams could really benefit from a new CBA being signed, since it would be likely that he would be an UFA by 2011. We’re a long way from that, but based on the old rules, he’d be free to sign anywhere in 2011, so it might be safe to assume he’s eyeing a potential free agency bonanza next year.
Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) (NYG) – Bradshaw burst on to the scene for the Giants late in the 2007 season and was an important player in their playoff run when veteran Derrick Ward(notes) went down to injury. Bradshaw was somewhat forgotten in 2008, but he then had an increased role last year, when Ward went to Tampa Bay. He did because the Giants tried to keep RB Brandon Jacobs(notes) fresh, but also because Bradshaw was simply better than Jacobs at times, even on top of the goal line. But the team seemed to struggle with just how to use Bradshaw and Jacobs properly, and the running game lacked a flow as a result. Foot issues plagued him for much of the season and required him to get scar tissue removed and screws inserted in the offseason. The team will need to figure out the right way to rotate Bradshaw and Jacobs, while also being mindful of the presence of Andre Brown(notes) and D.J. Ware. Jacobs is in the middle of a big contract, but if his game falls off further, he’ll be out of the mix here sooner rather than later. Bradshaw, under the old rules, would still be restricted in 2011, but he would certainly help his free agency cause by not only continuing to play well, but also by proving he can stay healthy with a substantial role.
Michael Bush(notes) (Oak) – Bush has never gotten the chance to prove himself in Oakland, thanks mostly to the presence of Justin Fargas(notes) and Darren McFadden(notes). Fargas is gone and McFadden might be on his last chance to prove himself as a starter, so Bush appears to be in line to get a legit opportunity to show what he can do this season. Oakland has always used a zone-blocking scheme in their running game, which benefits McFadden more than him. However, new OC Hue Jackson has used the power-blocking scheme in the past and appears to have convinced head coach Tom Cable that it should be integrated into the offense this season. That’s good news for Bush, who’s a straight-ahead, power runner. At worst, Bush could be the primary goal-line back, but let’s assume McFadden continues to show limitations as a runner. An increased role for Bush should give him 200-plus rushes and 20-plus catches, which based on his career numbers, would translate to solid yardage totals. With only three years in the league after 2010, Bush would be a restricted free agent in ’11 based on the old rules, but no matter what, there’s added motivation this year and potentially a big reward if the planets align for Bush this year.
Leon Washington(notes) (Sea) – Washington had been pushing hard for a new contract from the Jets prior to the start of last season, but New York failed to oblige, and Washington ended up suffering a gruesome broken leg around midseason. He was traded over to the Seahawks in a draft day deal and will battle for playing time with Julius Jones(notes) and Justin Forsett(notes). He was getting decent touches with the Jets as a change-up back because of his great speed and elusiveness. Unfortunately, there’s no way to tell if he can become that player again until he takes the field. The good news is that he’s now expected to be ready for training camp, according to head coach Pete Carroll, who said Washington was “in great shape at this time” and “ahead of schedule” as of their final minicamp in late-June. The team may be cautious with him initially in camp, but if things continue to progress as well as they have, Washington should be well in the mix for touches in Seattle this year. He’s used to the competition, and if he ends up emerging as their dynamic playmaker out of their backfield – and if he stays healthy – he’ll greatly improve his chances of commanding a healthy payday from the Seahawks. Needless to say, this is a huge year for him.
Laurence Maroney (NE) – Maroney’s tenure in New England has not gone according to plan. They drafted him to be a lead back, but he’s struggled with inconsistent play, injuries, and after last year, fumbles. He’s never topped 1000 yards, and his role seems to vary week-to-week. Last season, he saw his role increase near the goal-line, which is why he was able to score 9 TDs, but he ended up losing carries when he couldn’t hang on to the ball (4 fumbles). The Patriots have never truly embraced Maroney, as evidenced by the constant yo-yoing of his role on the team and the RBBC he continues to be a part of with older backs like Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk. Unless he is given the opportunity to break out and he delivers, this might be it for Maroney in New England. At 25, he’s still young enough and talented enough to succeed elsewhere, but it’s pretty apparent he could use a fresh start. Then again, given the state of this team’s backfield, if Maroney can somehow reduce the fumbling and “hit it up in there” more frequently, it’s certainly possible that New England will be open to re-signing him after his contract expires in 2011. It’s also worth noting that, based on the previous rules under the old CBA, Maroney would have been free to sign with any other team after 2010. That could still be the case in 2011, so Maroney had better bring it this year.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Six or more years of service time after 2010:
Randy Moss (NE) – Moss may be the No. 1 guy at the WR position who could benefit most from a strong contract year. Look at it this way: He’s an old 33 based on his extensive playing time over the last 12 seasons, he just fired his agent (and will finish his career representing himself), and the rumors of his “dogging it” hit an all-time high last season. So whether those rumors are true or not (and while we do think he’s a bit of a front-runner, we lean more toward the latter), Moss will have to prove his worth all over again, as ludicrous as that may sound. This is a guy who’s scored a ridiculous 47 TDs in just three seasons with the Patriots, and while he’s never been a complete receiver, it’s hard to find a guy who has ever used a combination of size and speed so effectively. It is possible that Moss is not in New England’s long-term plans for the future – they have youngsters Brandon Tate(notes) and ’10 draft pick Taylor Price(notes), who both project as possible starters down the road – but it’s clear for now the team will continue to roll with a pass-happy offense, and Moss, as the vertical threat, is a huge key to it. Certainly, another huge season from Moss would make the team inclined to sign him to one final large contract.
Vincent Jackson(notes) (SD) – Although it’s still relatively early, Jackson’s potential holdout is becoming big news, and it doesn’t look like an end is in sight for the team’s top wideout. Jackson has officially arrived as one of the top WRs in the AFC, and he’s posted back-to-back 1000-yard seasons, garnering over 17.0 YPC in each. But now he feels disrespected by the fact that he was offered a restricted free agent tender instead of a new extension, and because of it, he plans to hold out through Week 10 (the latest he can hold out and still accrue a year toward UFA status). The Chargers and GM A.J. Smith have said they’re prepared to go through the season without Jackson and LT Marcus McNeill(notes), who is pulling a similar stunt. This is much less a contract year than a total stalemate at this point, and Jackson’s situation will affect a whole lot of players on his own team. If his holdout lasts as long as he says it will, the chances he’s a Charger next season seem to be low. It certainly does not help this situation that there is no CBA and we’re staring at a very uncertain marketplace. But if Jackson somehow decides to bite the bullet and report and play on a one-year deal, motivation will certainly be at an all-time high, especially since he’s a good bet to be free to sign anywhere in 2011 – unless, of course, the franchise tag returns next year and the Chargers decide to use it on him. If that happens, Jackson may resort to George Costanza behavior from when he was trying to get fired by the Yankees.
Donald Driver(notes) (GB) – It’s hard to get more consistent than Driver has been. He’s posted at least 70 catches and at least 1000 yards receiving in seven of the last eight seasons, and he’s shown few signs of slowing down, even at 35. But this is a huge year for Driver. It’s the final year of his deal (he even skipped camp time last year because of it), and he still has youngsters Jordy Nelson(notes) and James Jones(notes) behind him, waiting for an opportunity to vault into the starting lineup. Driver recently had his knees scoped after wearing down last year (but he said he feels great), and said that he wants to play until he’s 40. It’s rare for receivers to produce that late, but by pure age metrics, Driver’s been due a regression for about three years now, and he hasn’t hit one yet. In fact, despite the knee issues last year, he looked as good as ever to us, and when we asked TE Jermichael Finley(notes) about the pep in his step last year, Finley told us he’s just a ball of energy and is absolutely thrilled to be playing this game at his advanced age. But there’s no question Nelson, in particular, is very talented and was viewed as Driver’s potential replacement when he was drafted three years ago, so it would behoove Driver to kick it up a notch in the final year of his contract. Knowing Driver, he probably will.
Braylon Edwards(notes) (NYJ) – Bray-Bray came over to the Jets early in the 2009 season, and while he did make a handful of notable contributions (he wasn’t a complete stiff, in other words), his dropped passes were just as hilarious and prominent as they were in Cleveland. So while the Jets picked up Edwards at about $5.5 million, they still traded for Santonio Holmes(notes), and Edwards is going to have to really prove himself to earn anywhere close to that kind of scratch again. Edwards is saying the right things – he’s not in pursuit of an extension right now – so that’s good. And instead of playing his natural split end all the time, he’s been flexing out to flanker (Z) and the slot (Y), trying to increase his versatility. We’ll give him credit for that, but if he continues to drop passes (as he has been in the minicamps), his financial future comes into question. He’s still a major talent, but it simply comes down to this with Edwards this year: Catch the ball, get paid. Drop the ball, lose millions.
Torry Holt(notes) (NE) – Holt is certainly on his last legs, and his pedestrian 51/722/0 in Jacksonville last year makes us wonder if he has the speed to break away from defenders (We lamented last year that he may never score a TD again). But the Pats brought Holt in to give QB Tom Brady another veteran possession weapon, in case Wes Welker(notes) isn’t ready to go Week 1, and Holt has been working extra on the side to get comfortable with his new QB. Like a lot of older receivers, Holt (he’s 34) has to prove he has the skills left to warrant a roster spot over fresh youngsters. He’ll almost certainly never get a multi-year deal again, but if he wants to keep playing past 2010 in any capacity, this is a big season for him. He’s at least reportedly running well in their workouts, so he might not be complete toast.
Troy Williamson(notes) (Jac) – Williamson entered 2009 as the Jags’ starting receiver opposite Mike Sims-Walker(notes), but a shoulder injury ended his season in Week 2. Williamson earned that job through a strong training camp, but his inability to stay healthy has plagued him throughout his entire career. This season, Williamson has an uphill battle, since Mike Thomas(notes) has been named the Jags No. 2 WR coming out of OTAs. But Williamson is only 27, his talent still flashes, and the Jags do plan on allowing him to compete for a job. It’s worth pointing out that Thomas is ideally cast as a slot receiver, and the team could really use Williamson’s speed on the outside. So once again, there’s a terrific opportunity for Williamson, who has shown some major flashes as recently as last preseason. He’s going to need to stay on the field, first and foremost, but if he does and if he can somehow parlay his excellent speed and intriguing talent into actual production, he’s going to enhance his financial situation come 2011.
Mark Clayton(notes) (Bal) – For what seems like forever, the Ravens have been attempting to miscast Clayton as a No. 1 (or even No. 2) wide receiver. Now, ideally for the Ravens, Clayton will enter 2010 as the Ravens’ No. 4 guy, behind Derrick Mason(notes), Anquan Boldin(notes), and Donte Stallworth. Clayton wasn’t a complete no-show in 2009, putting up a 34/480/2 line, but his catch totals have decreased every year since his promising 2006 campaign, and now the Ravens have actual threats at the position. Clayton has said this offseason that he feels great and is able to move freely, but he also must know that this is his last shot to make an impact. It should be pointed out that Boldin’s a major injury risk due to his style of play, so if the former Cardinal misses more time, a window for Clayton to show something would open. If that’s the case, Clayton had better step up because his financial future would depend on it. His career has been spiraling downward, for sure, but he is talented and young enough still to find a home somewhere as a No. 2.
Five or fewer years of service time after 2010:
Miles Austin(notes) (Dal) – Austin’s contract situation has been well-covered. He had a true breakout season a year ago, with an 81/1320/11 line that was good enough to rank him fourth at the WR position, and his dominance in several games meant Cowboys fans certainly weren’t missing Terrell Owens(notes). But Austin will enter the 2010 season without security for his future, and he certainly would like the peace of mind a new deal would give him. But as of now, he’s doing all the right things. He signed his one-year RFA tender and is getting to work in camp, likely under the assumption that the Cowboys will be working on a new deal with him. It doesn’t seem as if the drafting of Dez Bryant(notes) will affect the Cowboys’ plans – it’s almost certain they’re looking forward to an Austin-Bryant duo for years to come. But what could be problematic, if a deal doesn’t get done shortly, is the fact that Austin could conceivably enter 2010 as the third-highest paid WR on his own team (behind Bryant and the immortal Roy Williams). Dallas has been burned before by overpaying young, emerging players a bit prematurely, so all Austin has to do to receive his fair share of the “quan” is prove 2009 was no fluke. If he does that, he’ll be more than fine – and he’ll have the funds he needs to keep his new girl Kim Kardashian happy.
Sidney Rice (Min) – Rice had a true breakout in 2009. He stayed healthy, he made plays, and he’s certainly in line to be a top-15 receiver, if not higher, yet again. Of course, he benefitted from Favre, and not Tarvaris Jackson, throwing him the football. It’s probably not a stretch to say that Rice is unlikely to replicate his 84/1312/8 line with anyone other than No. 4 throwing him the football. So Rice, especially monetarily, is crossing his fingers that Favre doesn’t decide to pull a surprise retirement. Should he come close to those numbers again, and if he stays healthy, the Vikings will have a difficult time justifying to their fans that they let a 25-year-old star receiver skip town just as he’s entering his prime. Just one more big season this year will be ample proof that he’s a legit No. 1 WR in the NFL and deserves to be paid like one, so this is a big year for Rice. He’s a pretty serious guy when it comes to his game, and he’s been working hard this offseason and has bulked up in an effort to be an even more physical force on the field, a la Larry Fitzgerald(notes). Hopefully, his solid speed isn’t compromised.
Steve Smith (NYG) – Talk about a breakout. Smith caught 107 passes for 1220 yards and 7 TDs in his first year as a full-time starter for the newly pass-happy Giants, and he’s put himself in position to get paid (emphasis intended) should he continue down that path in 2010. Smith has already admitted that he’s looking for a new deal as soon as possible, but it doesn’t look as if the Giants plan on moving quickly. Smith said that his agent is hoping for a new deal “within the year,” so this doesn’t appear to be much like the Miles Austin situation, where Dallas’ talks are ongoing. So if the Giants choose to wait it out, Smith has a lot to lose if he drops back to his 57-catch performance of 2008. Based on his razor sharp play last year and his excellent chemistry with a still-improving Eli Manning(notes), we doubt that’s going to happen, especially with the added motivation. But for good measure, it’s nice to know the thickness of Smith’s wallet is probably in the balance this year.
Santonio Holmes (NYJ) – This is a big year for Holmes. Despite the former Super Bowl MVP violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy and being suspended for the first four games of the 2010 season, the Jets traded for him to give QB Mark Sanchez(notes) another weapon to work with. But Holmes will have four fewer weeks to make an impression on his coaches, and four fewer weeks to show the rest of the NFL he can put his off-field troubles behind him and play in a system that should mix the ball around pretty actively. He’s impressing in camp and saying all the right things thus far – and he’s an extremely gifted receiver – but he does have a lot to prove come the first time he suits up during the regular season. If he behaves himself, his natural talent could mean a big payday. Keep in mind, if he outdoes Edwards, the Jets could let the former Brown walk and break out the checkbook for the former Steeler. So this season is absolutely huge for Holmes.
Laurent Robinson(notes) (Stl) – Robinson has one thing on his mind in 2010: staying healthy. He was slotted as the Rams’ No. 1 WR in 2009 but played in only three games as a broken leg ended his promising season. But he was having a strong showing, despite having zilch at the QB position. The Rams would certainly love to have a big, reliable target in Robinson (a good fit for their WCO) to help out rookie QB Sam Bradford immediately, and for the future. If Robinson is 100 percent for training camp as expected, he could establish himself as a starter early, which would be a great start for him. Should Robinson stay on the field – he’s played just five games over the last two seasons – he’s talented enough to put up some good numbers. And he’s young enough (25) to justify a multi-year extension should he put together a full campaign. Granted, the team may need to see more than just one year before rewarding him with a massive deal, but if he can somehow play all 16 games this year and put up the numbers he’s capable of putting up, he could get a healthy RFA offer from the club in 2011, which would put him one step closer to a mega payday. But first up for Robinson, let’s get through September without suffering any sort of injury.
Steve Breaston(notes) (Ari) – Breaston was one of the first players in the NFL to sign his RFA tender this offseason, and it signaled his intentions to take his new role as a starter to heart. Breaston had been one of the most productive slot receivers in the NFL for the past two seasons, but the Cardinals’ trade of WR Anquan Boldin to Baltimore opened up an opportunity to start on the outside, opposite Larry Fitzgerald. That job is now Breaston’s, and the Cardinals are even willing to move him off punt returns so he can focus on playing WR. The Cardinals have been encouraged by Breaston’s involvement and ambition in camp thus far, and they’re comfortable with him in the starting lineup. If Breaston plays well, a contract extension is certainly not out of the question. But it’s worth mentioning that he’s not exactly proven right now as a full-time starter on the outside. The brief sampling of him in that role is promising, but he has to prove he can sustain a high level of play and production with defenses keyed on him more than ever over the course of a full season. Unfortunately for him, he’ll have to do that without QB Kurt Warner(notes).
Jacoby Jones(notes) (Hou) – Jones has always had an intriguing combination of size and speed, although that didn’t really translate that “fantasy usefulness” until last year, and even then, he was very hit-or-miss. He caught just 27 passes, but gained 437 yards and scored 6 TDs in 2009 (that’s a TD every 4.5 receptions). Jones has been a little slow on the uptake thus far, and he’s struggled with mental lapses and dropped passes over his first three seasons. But he’s appeared confident and has stood out in camps thus far this spring, so this could be a case of better-late-than-never. Given his talent and appealing situations, he’s one of the more interesting contract year guys this season because Texan coach Gary Kubiak anticipates Jones challenging incumbent Kevin Walter(notes) (who got a nice-sized contract himself this offseason) for a starting job alongside Andre Johnson(notes). That’s very interesting because Walter essentially proved last year that he’s ideally suited to play the slot, and the Texan offense on paper would be even more dangerous with Jones on the outside opposite Johnson and Walter sliding inside. In addition, if TE Owen Daniels(notes) has issues returning from his knee injury, Walter could handle a portion of the dirty work inside the hash marks. Jones is a valuable return man already, but he has to prove he’s ready to contribute consistently on offense if he wants to make some real money. It looks like he’s taking the steps to accomplish that. He’s a talented and charismatic guy, but he’s a bit of an enigma. In other words, he could potentially be the next Chad Ochocinco(notes) in more ways than one.
TIGHT ENDS
Six or more years of service time after 2010:
Antonio Gates(notes) (SD) – Let’s just cut to the chase with Gates: He’s going to get re-signed. He’s one of three stars in the San Diego offense in a contract year (WR Vincent Jackson and LT Marcus McNeill), and he’s the only one of the three who isn’t planning an extended holdout. Gates is reportedly the Chargers’ top priority for an extension, and with Jackson staging his potential holdout, it makes it more imperative that the Chargers get their star locked up. It may not get done before the season, but there is nothing to indicate it won’t get done at all.
Bo Scaife(notes) (Ten) – It’s been hard to “get free” for Scaife. He was franchised before the 2009 season, and the expiring CBA meant he was an RFA before the 2010 season. Not only that, but second-year TE Jared Cook(notes) appears to be the future at the position for the Titans, so Scaife, at 29, may be the guy most looking forward to becoming a UFA among all the TEs on this list. Of course, he has a challenge ahead of him. He’s a solid option at the TE position, but he’s averaged fewer than 10.0 YPC in three straight years, and he’s never scored more than two touchdowns in a season. He’ll need to make himself look very appealing to other teams to land a multi-year deal at 30 years old next offseason. Otherwise, the Titans should be interested in him long-term, since he’s a decent blocker and could settle into the No. 2 role behind Cook the next few years.
Five or fewer years of service time after 2010:
Owen Daniels (Hou) – Daniels has been pining for a new deal for over a year now, since he realized the uncapped year in 2010 would result in a restricted free-agency season this year. He took his battle into the summer last year, and only recently did he sign his RFA tender for the 2010 season. You really have to feel for Daniels, since his unbelievably hot start in 2009 seemed to put him in position for landing a juicy extension. But an ACL injury tore (pun intended) his dream campaign in half. Now, he’ll have to reestablish himself as one of the game’s elite TEs to get the ideal money he’s looking for. If he’s healthy, he should have no problem with that, since he plays more like a WR than a TE, and his understanding of the offense and timing with QB Matt Schaub(notes) is impeccable. If Daniels proves to be close to the player he was before the injury, and if there’s a new CBA reached that is comparable to the previous one (likely), there’s a very good chance that Daniels, barring a long-term extension during the season, will be free to sign anywhere in 2011. So clearly, the upcoming campaign is paramount.
Vernon Davis(notes) (SF) – Vernon was the big breakout star at the TE position last year, and the 49ers know it. That’s why there have been reports that Davis is next in line for an extension (since LB Patrick Willis(notes) signed his). Davis has skills that can truly thrive with the 49ers, and as he showed last year, no TE in football can get downfield or catch the ball at its highest point as well as he can. But additionally, he gives fantastic effort as a blocker, perfect for the 49ers’ new run-based offense. Davis said he would ideally have his new deal before the 2010 season begins but is not focusing on it. What may make that a bit more difficult is the fact that, by his own admission, he’s looking at WR money. He’s probably not worth being paid like a high-end wideout because of his limitations as a player (more of a straight-line runner, as opposed to a diverse weapon), but if he puts up another huge season, the Niners may have no other choice than to back the Brinks truck up to Davis’ crib.
Zach Miller (Oak) – Miller’s made a career of being a quiet, but completely necessary, cog in the Raiders offense. In his three seasons with Oakland, he’s increased his catch totals and yardage every season (44/444, 56/778, 66/805), and he’s done it with truly awful QB play. There’s no denying he’s still underrated, but we expect that to change with QB Jason Campbell(notes) coming over to the Black Hole. Miller’s managed to be a consistent receiving threat in Oakland since JaMarcus Russell(notes) arrived, but we have to imagine he’s hailing Campbell’s arrival as much as anyone. In typical Miller fashion, we’ve heard nary a peep about his impending free agency, but if Campbell makes him as indispensable a part of the passing game as he made Chris Cooley(notes) in Washington (and they’re similar players, physically), Miller could land a huge deal to stick around.
Kevin Boss(notes) (NYG) – For the new-look Giants, Boss seems a little out of place. When the Giants run the ball a lot, his superior blocking and effectiveness as a red-zone receiver are highlighted. But when the Giants chuck the ball all over the field, as they did last year, his lack of athleticism shows. That led to an uneven fantasy season, but he did see more pass targets per game in the second half of the season, which was promising. The Giants would probably like to be more balanced ideally, which would allow Boss to showcase his strengths again. But if they maintain a throw-first attack, young Travis Beckum(notes), who runs like a WR, could become the more prominent player in the offense, so that’s a threat to Boss and adds something to the motivation department. No matter what happens with Beckum, unless Boss has a serious injury, he should have no problem finding work – with the Giants or elsewhere – if he continues to block well and make plays in the red zone.
Anthony Fasano(notes) (Mia) – Fasano was a restricted free agent this past season and was tendered at just $1.17 million. He’s been solid since coming over to the Dolphins from Dallas, but he hasn’t been everything the Dolphins hoped. In fact, he was practically invisible when the Dolphins were running their Wildcat-based offense for the first half of the 2009 season. He showed signs of life when the Dolphins let QB Chad Henne(notes) open up the offense, but he’s going to have to put together a full season of work to earn a big contract, which the Dolphins frankly don’t appear interested in at this point. The addition of WR Brandon Marshall(notes) may open things up for Fasano, but he hasn’t proven to be a go-to guy in this offense, and he’s had two years to assert himself so far. If he can prove to be more than just a solid red-zone threat in 2010, however, he’d really help his chances. Otherwise, the Dolphins may be ready to look for an upgrade and a more dynamic player.
Tony Scheffler(notes) (Det) – Scheffler is one of the more underrated receiving threats at the TE position in the NFL, and he apparently was underappreciated by Denver coach Josh McDaniels, who tried to trade him last offseason and did trade him this offseason, after a Week 17 spat left Scheffler inactivated for the Broncos’ final game. Scheffler becomes a versatile weapon for QB Matthew Stafford(notes) in Detroit, and it’s certainly possible both he and TE Brandon Pettigrew(notes) see the field at the same time, since they possess different skill sets. If Scheffler produces the way the Lions envision (some writers have already said that they believe Scheffler will be a big part of their offense), they’d have a difficult time justifying to their suffering fans and to Stafford if they decide to let him walk. Scheffler has a few things to prove, for sure – like if he can rebound from a mediocre year, and that he can avoid off-the-field distractions – but there’s a payoff here if he does in 2010.
Marcedes Lewis(notes) (Jac) – If Lewis plans to stick with the Jags for multiple years in the future, this is a big year for him. For four seasons, he’s been a serviceable TE who is clearly worthy of a roster spot, but nothing he does should be considered spectacular. He has good size, but while he did gain surprising separation at times last year, he’s still slow. And despite being 6-foot-6, he has only six career targets inside the 10-yard line and seven career touchdowns. You can probably thank his inability to (consistently) gain workable separation for that, and the Jags know they can certainly upgrade in that department. Lewis is a solid blocker, but he will have to have a solid year to hold off Zach Miller (not the Raiders version), who is more athletic and his a lot more upside."
there may be a few inaccuracies in here, but from a cursory look, this looked typically well written...
contract info can be helpful in "planning your day" in dynasty leagues, and this is admirably thorough and systematic...
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/nfl/news?s...u-contract-2010
"For the majority of the time since we started publishing this contract-year overview, it’s been a relatively straightforward piece. As much as some players may want to deny it, money is a great motivator. So the premise is simple: Find guys due for free agency because they want to get paid, and it may help an owner make a final decision on that last keeper or that late-round sleeper.
But the last two years have been different without a new Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NFL owners and the NFLPA. Under the current CBA, in an uncapped year, players become unrestricted free agents only after accruing six years of service time, instead of the four years required from 2009 and previous (capped years). The 2010 season, of course, is an uncapped year, and with the CBA expiring in March of 2011 – assuming no deal is reached – free-agent activity will stop anyway.
So here’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to put together a list of guys who are in the last year of their contracts, and sort them by service time. We’re only listing the higher-end guys, too. The players with six or more years of service time by next offseason would be unrestricted free agents under the 2010 rules. The players with five or fewer years of service time would be restricted free agents, again under this season’s rules. We’ll reiterate that these rules, barring an extension of the current CBA, are highly unlikely to stay the same (theoretically, the UFA/RFA designation might not even exist in a new CBA), but it’s the only way to approach this article at this time.
QUARTERBACKS
Six or more years of service time after 2010:
Tom Brady(notes) (NE) – Brady isn’t going anywhere, and the Patriots haven’t drafted anyone with the pedigree needed to replace such a legend, so his eventual replacement probably isn’t on the team right now. Owner Bob Kraft is confident Brady will be signed, but there has been no timetable set to get negotiations going, and there isn’t a deadline to get a new deal done. The Patriots have made waves in the offseason with their negotiations with OG Logan Mankins(notes), who criticized the team for treating him poorly in regard to a new long-term deal he requested. Certainly, the Patriots would never let it get to that point with Brady, but as we’ve seen in recent years, they aren’t afraid to play hardball. Brady’s situation is much different, since he’s been the key cog in their three championship teams and actually took less money in his previous deal to help the team sign big name free agents like WR Randy Moss(notes). While his play was erratic early last season coming off the horrific knee injury that ended his 2008 season in Week 1, Brady slowly worked his way back into game shape and ended up winning Comeback Player of the Year, thanks to his 4398 yards and 28 TDs with just 13 INTs. To his credit, Brady has avoided the subject of a contract extension in the offseason, instead turning his focus to on-field activities. There has been some talk of an overall “disconnect” between Brady and the team, but we’d expect this deal to be done sooner than later even with uncertainty surrounding next season’s labor agreement (or lack thereof).
Peyton Manning(notes) (Ind) – There has been talk of the Colts making Manning the richest paid player in the league when he gets his new contract, and considering he might be the best player in the history of the league at any position, that makes sense. According to various reports, Manning’s new deal could be worth $100 million over five years. Owner Bill Polian has said he is confident Manning will get a new deal before his contract runs out this season. Obviously, Manning will not be going anywhere. He’s coming off neck surgery, which he’s said has eliminated the need to get treatment three times a day as he had been doing for the last four years. Otherwise, Manning’s as good as ever at 34 years old, capping off one of the best statistical seasons of his career with a Super Bowl appearance. We know how good he is as a pure passer, but what often gets overlooked is his ability to make everyone around him better, specifically his O-line. The Colts have never had to pay for a superstar LT, and they sure as hell don’t have one this season in Charlie Johnson(notes), but that’s because Manning knows how to control the defense and he rarely takes sacks. He’s never missed a game in his career (210 straight, including playoffs), and that alone is worth giving the man a monster deal. Well that, and the fact that some people – like us, for example – think he’s the best QB in the history of mankind.
Donovan McNabb(notes) (Phi) – McNabb received a “financial apology” from the Eagles after the 2008 season, which raised his salary, but didn’t extend his contract. Now he finds himself a 125 or so miles down the road as the starting QB of the NFC East rival Redskins. After very little talk of a contract extension, reports came out in early June that McNabb and the team could be talking about a new deal as early as this summer. That’s probably going to happen, but we’d understand if the team wanted to wait. McNabb hasn’t exactly been the pillar of health in his long career, having played a full season just once since 2004, and his struggles with accuracy have been well documented. Switching teams this late in a career usually turns out badly (he turns 34 in November), but head coach Mike Shanahan’s system is a good fit for the veteran QB, since Shanahan likes his QBs to throw while on the run, and throw it deep, two things McNabb does well. Shanahan also loves to use shifts and motions to dictate matchups and define throws, which is good for McNabb, who’s never been a good progression reader or a quick decision maker. So he does find himself in a good situation for what he’s capable of doing. Whether he gets his new deal before the season or waits until he proves himself remains to be seen. If he doesn’t, he’ll not only be motivated playing in the same division as his former club, but he’ll also have the added incentive of playing for what would likely be the last big contract of his playing career.
Brett Favre(notes) (Min) – If Favre wants to play next season, he’ll have no problem finding employment, but it hasn’t even been confirmed he’ll play this season. But certainly, all indications point to his returning here in 2010. He was expected last year to be an obvious upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson(notes), but no one could have expected him to put up one of the best seasons of his career at age 40. Obviously, he can still sling it with the best of them, but what was most impressive was limiting his usually high interception total to just 7. He also made stars out of WRs Sidney Rice(notes) and Percy Harvin(notes) almost immediately and without much time to work with them in the offseason, since he took so long to make his decision to come back. Favre had ankle surgery, which according to the world-renowned Dr. James Andrews went well, but obviously shows Favre is no spring chicken. Remember, he also had surgery on his throwing arm to correct the problems he was having throwing the ball with the Jets. We’d have to believe that this will be his final season, but you probably could have said the same thing three years ago. Money’s probably not a big issue, but the guy does command at least $12 million a year these days, which isn’t chump change for anyone.
Matt Hasselbeck(notes) (Sea) – Hasselbeck is one of the few true “contract guys” on this QB list because he is at an obvious crossroads in his career this season. He got beat up for the second straight year, missing two games because of a rib injury, which was on the heels of a 2008 season in which a back injury limited him to seven games. Playing behind one of the worst O-lines in the league with a shoddy receiving corps didn’t help much, and Hasselbeck threw a career-high 17 INTs. The new regime in Seattle is definitely concerned, as evidenced by acquisition of former Chargers third-stringer Charlie Whitehurst(notes), whom they handed a two-year deal worth $8 million. Hasselbeck will be 35 early in the season, and the team is definitely in a bit of a transitional phase, so even a decent season might not guarantee he’s with the team next year. If he can get near his seasonal averages with the Seahawks, which is about 2,900 yards and 18 TDs, it would probably earn him a crack at a starting job elsewhere, maybe in a bit of a mentor role like A.J. Feeley(notes) and Sam Bradford(notes) in St. Louis this season. His health is a serious issue, and it’s definitely affecting his ability to stand tall in the pocket, so we’d have to be worried about a situation like what happened to Marc Bulger(notes), who took so many shots that he became gun shy. He’s definitely fighting this year for a job and a new contract in 2011.
Michael Vick(notes) (Phi) – The Eagles were the only team to give Vick a chance last season, but it appeared his days as a starter are behind him. In his defense, Philly never used him as a prototypical QB, utilizing him instead more in Wildcat packages where they could take advantage of his legs – and to be fair, Vick was coming off an extremely long layoff. Vick hoped to land somewhere as a starter this season, but the Eagles ended up picking up their team option on him when a trade suitor could not be found, so Vick is expected to go into the season as the backup to new starter Kevin Kolb(notes). With only rookie Mike Kafka(notes) on the roster now, Vick’s not going anywhere and will stick as Kolb’s primary backup. That means he’s only a Kolb injury away from starting for the Eagles, which would give him a chance to prove he can still play QB in this league. It may be tough for Vick to find work, since his dog fighting issues are still fresh in everyone’s mind, as evidenced by his recently being voted the most hated man in sports for a second straight season. The little “incident” in late-June at his birthday party wasn’t good to hear, either. But if he plays a lot and plays well, there will certainly be a few league owners willing to take a long hard look at him. So if he gets on the field as the starter, there may not be a more motivated player in the league than Vick in ’10.
Five or fewer years of service time after 2010:
Trent Edwards(notes) (Buf) – With or without a new regime in Buffalo this season, Edwards was going to have to play well to save his job with the team this year. As it turns out he’s working with a new coaching staff, which is good because there’s a very slight chance they may not quite realize how bad he’s been over the last season and a half. He entered last season as the starter, but ultimately ended up trading time with Ryan Fitzpatrick(notes) and Brian Brohm(notes) by the time the year ended. Poor play by both Edwards and his O-line resulted in just eight appearances and no guaranteed spot as the starter heading into this season. While he may be the most talented passer on the team, his 2008 concussion turned him into a player who’s afraid to stare down the gun barrel, something he may have to do a lot of behind that O-line, one that didn’t improve much in the offseason. His receiving corps is one of the worst in the league, and having to face the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins six times doesn’t help matters, either. The good news is he probably has the best chance to start, so this is a huge year for him. If he struggles, we wouldn’t be surprised to see new head coach Chan Gailey give Edwards the hook this fall without much warning – and then set his sights on Washington’s Jake Locker in the 2011 draft.
RUNNING BACKS
Six or more years of service time after 2010:
Cedric Benson(notes) (Cin) – Benson shocked everyone in 2008 with a great performance in Cincinnati that saw the Bengals and Texans fighting over his services in the spring of 2009. He, of course, ended up coming back to the Bengals and raised his game further last season, running for 1251 yards and 6 TDs in just 13 games. Cincy’s offense revolved around the run, since its passing game was never able to get on track. This year, despite major improvements at the WR position, the Bengals should still lean on Benson to carry their offense, since it’s still first and foremost an offense that feeds off the power running game. Now, there have been some reports in June regarding Benson and an extension, but nothing has been announced as of early July. Clearly, the Bengals can’t afford to let Benson go anywhere, so we’d expect this deal to get done. If they don’t do a deal before the season starts and Benson can repeat his 2009 performance, his services will be fought over by more than just two teams. And while it truly seems as if Benson has completely turned his career around and is doing everything he needs to do to excel, it would certainly make fantasy players feel a little better about his prospects this year if he were playing for a fat new contract.
Ricky Williams(notes) (Mia) – Williams has been a bit of an enigma to say the least, but there’s no disputing the fact that he’s always had the talent to be one of the best at his position – of all time. His off the field interests, whether they include enjoying the natural resources of the Earth, holistic healing, or his yoga studies, always seemed to be his passion, while football was considered a job. But with age comes wisdom, and he seems to finally get it. Of course, right on cue, he’s now talking about retirement. Williams was fantastic last season, especially when the team became more of a conventional offense when Ronnie Brown(notes) was lost for the season after a foot injury. Brown is still working his way back, so Williams could end up starting the season ahead of Brown on the depth chart. Even at 33, Williams is in wonderful shape, partly because of his workout regiment and in part because of the years off, which gave his body a respite. So if he does decide to return in 2011, the odds are good that he’ll command a decent chunk of change (likely from Miami). But let’s be honest; Rickey’s not a guy who’s too worried about contracts.
Sammy Morris(notes) (NE) – Morris is an AFC East lifer, spending his eight seasons in Buffalo, Miami, and the last three in New England. Much like the other backs in the team’s RBBC, Morris’ role changes regularly. He’s dealt with a slew of injuries – specifically a knee problem last year that took him out from Weeks 7 through 11 – as well as multiple committee situations, but he plays well whenever he’s healthy and getting the ball. The backfield is crowded again this season, and Morris joins Laurence Maroney(notes), Fred Taylor(notes), and Kevin Faulk(notes) as contract year guys, so the battle for playing time will be that much more important. Once Taylor went down last year, Morris was clearly the guy before his own injury opened the door for Maroney. Yet Maroney’s inconsistent play probably gives the Belichick-favorite Morris a chance to get a healthy number of carries if Taylor has more issues (which is likely). At 33, Morris is nearing the end of his career, but Belichick has no problem rolling with an older back, as long as he’s producing. Morris knows that, so he’ll be looking to do whatever it takes to stick around. Granted, that’s nothing close to an assurance he’ll stay healthy, but it helps.
Fred Taylor (NE) – Taylor got a two-year deal from the Patriots before last season and entered the 2009 campaign as the starter, but a nasty ankle injury in Week 4 knocked him out until Week 16. He did look better than Laurence Maroney before the injury, and the team went right back to him when he returned, but durability has been an issue throughout his career, and at 34 years old, we have to wonder if the wheels have officially fallen off. He’ll be in a RBBC once again in New England, but if he’s healthy, Taylor should get a chance to reclaim the role he had to start last season. He sure seems like a long shot to command another contract, but stranger things have certainly happened. The guy does take excellent care of his body.
Kevin Faulk (NE) – Faulk’s on this list because he signed a one-year deal with the only team he’s ever played for, and despite the loyalty New England has shown him, he’s probably on a one-year renewal situation for the rest of his time with the Pats. Faulk now enters his 12th season, and despite being 34 years old, he’s still a solid 3rd-down back who manages to find a role in the team’s ever-changing RBBC, and he always seems to get the call in big spots because the team trusts him so much. We wouldn’t expect him to go anywhere else other than to the NFL retirement home if he decided to leave New England.
Five or fewer years of service time after 2010:
Joseph Addai(notes) (Ind) – Addai’s fast start to his career (2842 total yards, 23 TDs in first two seasons) may have set the bar a little too high, so he’s fallen a little flat as a fantasy commodity the last two seasons. Over the last two years, he’s put up 1914 total yards and a nice TD total of 20, but he’s struggled with injuries and at times has exhibited a lack of urgency and fire in his play. But when the Colts drafted Donald Brown(notes) in the first round of the 2009 draft, we wondered aloud if it would light a fire under Addai, and it certainly appeared to do just that. Brown began the season as the “closer,” the back they looked to when they had a lead in the fourth quarter. But injuries slowed the rookie down, which gave Addai the chance to remind everyone why he, like Brown, was taken in the first round. Addai looked quick and more decisive, and he continued to be a very effective pass catcher. Now things get interesting because Brown has a season under his belt and should be better prepared for the rigors of a full NFL season. And with Addai entering the final year of his rookie deal, that fire Brown lit under him better be burning as intensely as ever because Brown’s a quality player capable of taking his job at any given time. Brown will definitely cut into Addai’s touches this season as long as he stays healthy, so Addai will really have to impress if he wants to stay in Indy. Under the previous CBA framework, he’d be completely free to sign anywhere after the ’10 season, which still could be the case, so he’ll be plenty motivated.
DeAngelo Williams(notes) (Car) – Halfway through his rookie contract two years ago, Williams was considered a slight first-round bust, but a ballistic 2008 season followed by another impressive year in 2009 changed his career trajectory for the better. Williams is now part of what we believe is one of the finest backfields in league history, and he and Jonathan Stewart(notes) have perfected the two-back system that has become commonplace in the increasingly physical league. Yet, unlike many other comparable situations, both guys have embraced it. They know that sharing the rock will extend their careers and, in turn, make them more money. When one is out of the mix, the other has the ability to become a top fantasy back, but the offense is at its best when they’re both healthy. Williams has had to carry the load at times when Stewart dealt with Achilles and toe issues, and Stewart took over when Williams hurt his ankle at the back-end of last season. While trade talks always seem to mention Williams’ name, especially in a contract season, the team has been adamant about keeping him around. If he continues his solid play, it should be interesting to see what kind of contract offers he gets from the Panthers to stay in the tandem backfield or from other teams that may want to make him their lead back. Williams could really benefit from a new CBA being signed, since it would be likely that he would be an UFA by 2011. We’re a long way from that, but based on the old rules, he’d be free to sign anywhere in 2011, so it might be safe to assume he’s eyeing a potential free agency bonanza next year.
Ahmad Bradshaw(notes) (NYG) – Bradshaw burst on to the scene for the Giants late in the 2007 season and was an important player in their playoff run when veteran Derrick Ward(notes) went down to injury. Bradshaw was somewhat forgotten in 2008, but he then had an increased role last year, when Ward went to Tampa Bay. He did because the Giants tried to keep RB Brandon Jacobs(notes) fresh, but also because Bradshaw was simply better than Jacobs at times, even on top of the goal line. But the team seemed to struggle with just how to use Bradshaw and Jacobs properly, and the running game lacked a flow as a result. Foot issues plagued him for much of the season and required him to get scar tissue removed and screws inserted in the offseason. The team will need to figure out the right way to rotate Bradshaw and Jacobs, while also being mindful of the presence of Andre Brown(notes) and D.J. Ware. Jacobs is in the middle of a big contract, but if his game falls off further, he’ll be out of the mix here sooner rather than later. Bradshaw, under the old rules, would still be restricted in 2011, but he would certainly help his free agency cause by not only continuing to play well, but also by proving he can stay healthy with a substantial role.
Michael Bush(notes) (Oak) – Bush has never gotten the chance to prove himself in Oakland, thanks mostly to the presence of Justin Fargas(notes) and Darren McFadden(notes). Fargas is gone and McFadden might be on his last chance to prove himself as a starter, so Bush appears to be in line to get a legit opportunity to show what he can do this season. Oakland has always used a zone-blocking scheme in their running game, which benefits McFadden more than him. However, new OC Hue Jackson has used the power-blocking scheme in the past and appears to have convinced head coach Tom Cable that it should be integrated into the offense this season. That’s good news for Bush, who’s a straight-ahead, power runner. At worst, Bush could be the primary goal-line back, but let’s assume McFadden continues to show limitations as a runner. An increased role for Bush should give him 200-plus rushes and 20-plus catches, which based on his career numbers, would translate to solid yardage totals. With only three years in the league after 2010, Bush would be a restricted free agent in ’11 based on the old rules, but no matter what, there’s added motivation this year and potentially a big reward if the planets align for Bush this year.
Leon Washington(notes) (Sea) – Washington had been pushing hard for a new contract from the Jets prior to the start of last season, but New York failed to oblige, and Washington ended up suffering a gruesome broken leg around midseason. He was traded over to the Seahawks in a draft day deal and will battle for playing time with Julius Jones(notes) and Justin Forsett(notes). He was getting decent touches with the Jets as a change-up back because of his great speed and elusiveness. Unfortunately, there’s no way to tell if he can become that player again until he takes the field. The good news is that he’s now expected to be ready for training camp, according to head coach Pete Carroll, who said Washington was “in great shape at this time” and “ahead of schedule” as of their final minicamp in late-June. The team may be cautious with him initially in camp, but if things continue to progress as well as they have, Washington should be well in the mix for touches in Seattle this year. He’s used to the competition, and if he ends up emerging as their dynamic playmaker out of their backfield – and if he stays healthy – he’ll greatly improve his chances of commanding a healthy payday from the Seahawks. Needless to say, this is a huge year for him.
Laurence Maroney (NE) – Maroney’s tenure in New England has not gone according to plan. They drafted him to be a lead back, but he’s struggled with inconsistent play, injuries, and after last year, fumbles. He’s never topped 1000 yards, and his role seems to vary week-to-week. Last season, he saw his role increase near the goal-line, which is why he was able to score 9 TDs, but he ended up losing carries when he couldn’t hang on to the ball (4 fumbles). The Patriots have never truly embraced Maroney, as evidenced by the constant yo-yoing of his role on the team and the RBBC he continues to be a part of with older backs like Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk. Unless he is given the opportunity to break out and he delivers, this might be it for Maroney in New England. At 25, he’s still young enough and talented enough to succeed elsewhere, but it’s pretty apparent he could use a fresh start. Then again, given the state of this team’s backfield, if Maroney can somehow reduce the fumbling and “hit it up in there” more frequently, it’s certainly possible that New England will be open to re-signing him after his contract expires in 2011. It’s also worth noting that, based on the previous rules under the old CBA, Maroney would have been free to sign with any other team after 2010. That could still be the case in 2011, so Maroney had better bring it this year.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Six or more years of service time after 2010:
Randy Moss (NE) – Moss may be the No. 1 guy at the WR position who could benefit most from a strong contract year. Look at it this way: He’s an old 33 based on his extensive playing time over the last 12 seasons, he just fired his agent (and will finish his career representing himself), and the rumors of his “dogging it” hit an all-time high last season. So whether those rumors are true or not (and while we do think he’s a bit of a front-runner, we lean more toward the latter), Moss will have to prove his worth all over again, as ludicrous as that may sound. This is a guy who’s scored a ridiculous 47 TDs in just three seasons with the Patriots, and while he’s never been a complete receiver, it’s hard to find a guy who has ever used a combination of size and speed so effectively. It is possible that Moss is not in New England’s long-term plans for the future – they have youngsters Brandon Tate(notes) and ’10 draft pick Taylor Price(notes), who both project as possible starters down the road – but it’s clear for now the team will continue to roll with a pass-happy offense, and Moss, as the vertical threat, is a huge key to it. Certainly, another huge season from Moss would make the team inclined to sign him to one final large contract.
Vincent Jackson(notes) (SD) – Although it’s still relatively early, Jackson’s potential holdout is becoming big news, and it doesn’t look like an end is in sight for the team’s top wideout. Jackson has officially arrived as one of the top WRs in the AFC, and he’s posted back-to-back 1000-yard seasons, garnering over 17.0 YPC in each. But now he feels disrespected by the fact that he was offered a restricted free agent tender instead of a new extension, and because of it, he plans to hold out through Week 10 (the latest he can hold out and still accrue a year toward UFA status). The Chargers and GM A.J. Smith have said they’re prepared to go through the season without Jackson and LT Marcus McNeill(notes), who is pulling a similar stunt. This is much less a contract year than a total stalemate at this point, and Jackson’s situation will affect a whole lot of players on his own team. If his holdout lasts as long as he says it will, the chances he’s a Charger next season seem to be low. It certainly does not help this situation that there is no CBA and we’re staring at a very uncertain marketplace. But if Jackson somehow decides to bite the bullet and report and play on a one-year deal, motivation will certainly be at an all-time high, especially since he’s a good bet to be free to sign anywhere in 2011 – unless, of course, the franchise tag returns next year and the Chargers decide to use it on him. If that happens, Jackson may resort to George Costanza behavior from when he was trying to get fired by the Yankees.
Donald Driver(notes) (GB) – It’s hard to get more consistent than Driver has been. He’s posted at least 70 catches and at least 1000 yards receiving in seven of the last eight seasons, and he’s shown few signs of slowing down, even at 35. But this is a huge year for Driver. It’s the final year of his deal (he even skipped camp time last year because of it), and he still has youngsters Jordy Nelson(notes) and James Jones(notes) behind him, waiting for an opportunity to vault into the starting lineup. Driver recently had his knees scoped after wearing down last year (but he said he feels great), and said that he wants to play until he’s 40. It’s rare for receivers to produce that late, but by pure age metrics, Driver’s been due a regression for about three years now, and he hasn’t hit one yet. In fact, despite the knee issues last year, he looked as good as ever to us, and when we asked TE Jermichael Finley(notes) about the pep in his step last year, Finley told us he’s just a ball of energy and is absolutely thrilled to be playing this game at his advanced age. But there’s no question Nelson, in particular, is very talented and was viewed as Driver’s potential replacement when he was drafted three years ago, so it would behoove Driver to kick it up a notch in the final year of his contract. Knowing Driver, he probably will.
Braylon Edwards(notes) (NYJ) – Bray-Bray came over to the Jets early in the 2009 season, and while he did make a handful of notable contributions (he wasn’t a complete stiff, in other words), his dropped passes were just as hilarious and prominent as they were in Cleveland. So while the Jets picked up Edwards at about $5.5 million, they still traded for Santonio Holmes(notes), and Edwards is going to have to really prove himself to earn anywhere close to that kind of scratch again. Edwards is saying the right things – he’s not in pursuit of an extension right now – so that’s good. And instead of playing his natural split end all the time, he’s been flexing out to flanker (Z) and the slot (Y), trying to increase his versatility. We’ll give him credit for that, but if he continues to drop passes (as he has been in the minicamps), his financial future comes into question. He’s still a major talent, but it simply comes down to this with Edwards this year: Catch the ball, get paid. Drop the ball, lose millions.
Torry Holt(notes) (NE) – Holt is certainly on his last legs, and his pedestrian 51/722/0 in Jacksonville last year makes us wonder if he has the speed to break away from defenders (We lamented last year that he may never score a TD again). But the Pats brought Holt in to give QB Tom Brady another veteran possession weapon, in case Wes Welker(notes) isn’t ready to go Week 1, and Holt has been working extra on the side to get comfortable with his new QB. Like a lot of older receivers, Holt (he’s 34) has to prove he has the skills left to warrant a roster spot over fresh youngsters. He’ll almost certainly never get a multi-year deal again, but if he wants to keep playing past 2010 in any capacity, this is a big season for him. He’s at least reportedly running well in their workouts, so he might not be complete toast.
Troy Williamson(notes) (Jac) – Williamson entered 2009 as the Jags’ starting receiver opposite Mike Sims-Walker(notes), but a shoulder injury ended his season in Week 2. Williamson earned that job through a strong training camp, but his inability to stay healthy has plagued him throughout his entire career. This season, Williamson has an uphill battle, since Mike Thomas(notes) has been named the Jags No. 2 WR coming out of OTAs. But Williamson is only 27, his talent still flashes, and the Jags do plan on allowing him to compete for a job. It’s worth pointing out that Thomas is ideally cast as a slot receiver, and the team could really use Williamson’s speed on the outside. So once again, there’s a terrific opportunity for Williamson, who has shown some major flashes as recently as last preseason. He’s going to need to stay on the field, first and foremost, but if he does and if he can somehow parlay his excellent speed and intriguing talent into actual production, he’s going to enhance his financial situation come 2011.
Mark Clayton(notes) (Bal) – For what seems like forever, the Ravens have been attempting to miscast Clayton as a No. 1 (or even No. 2) wide receiver. Now, ideally for the Ravens, Clayton will enter 2010 as the Ravens’ No. 4 guy, behind Derrick Mason(notes), Anquan Boldin(notes), and Donte Stallworth. Clayton wasn’t a complete no-show in 2009, putting up a 34/480/2 line, but his catch totals have decreased every year since his promising 2006 campaign, and now the Ravens have actual threats at the position. Clayton has said this offseason that he feels great and is able to move freely, but he also must know that this is his last shot to make an impact. It should be pointed out that Boldin’s a major injury risk due to his style of play, so if the former Cardinal misses more time, a window for Clayton to show something would open. If that’s the case, Clayton had better step up because his financial future would depend on it. His career has been spiraling downward, for sure, but he is talented and young enough still to find a home somewhere as a No. 2.
Five or fewer years of service time after 2010:
Miles Austin(notes) (Dal) – Austin’s contract situation has been well-covered. He had a true breakout season a year ago, with an 81/1320/11 line that was good enough to rank him fourth at the WR position, and his dominance in several games meant Cowboys fans certainly weren’t missing Terrell Owens(notes). But Austin will enter the 2010 season without security for his future, and he certainly would like the peace of mind a new deal would give him. But as of now, he’s doing all the right things. He signed his one-year RFA tender and is getting to work in camp, likely under the assumption that the Cowboys will be working on a new deal with him. It doesn’t seem as if the drafting of Dez Bryant(notes) will affect the Cowboys’ plans – it’s almost certain they’re looking forward to an Austin-Bryant duo for years to come. But what could be problematic, if a deal doesn’t get done shortly, is the fact that Austin could conceivably enter 2010 as the third-highest paid WR on his own team (behind Bryant and the immortal Roy Williams). Dallas has been burned before by overpaying young, emerging players a bit prematurely, so all Austin has to do to receive his fair share of the “quan” is prove 2009 was no fluke. If he does that, he’ll be more than fine – and he’ll have the funds he needs to keep his new girl Kim Kardashian happy.
Sidney Rice (Min) – Rice had a true breakout in 2009. He stayed healthy, he made plays, and he’s certainly in line to be a top-15 receiver, if not higher, yet again. Of course, he benefitted from Favre, and not Tarvaris Jackson, throwing him the football. It’s probably not a stretch to say that Rice is unlikely to replicate his 84/1312/8 line with anyone other than No. 4 throwing him the football. So Rice, especially monetarily, is crossing his fingers that Favre doesn’t decide to pull a surprise retirement. Should he come close to those numbers again, and if he stays healthy, the Vikings will have a difficult time justifying to their fans that they let a 25-year-old star receiver skip town just as he’s entering his prime. Just one more big season this year will be ample proof that he’s a legit No. 1 WR in the NFL and deserves to be paid like one, so this is a big year for Rice. He’s a pretty serious guy when it comes to his game, and he’s been working hard this offseason and has bulked up in an effort to be an even more physical force on the field, a la Larry Fitzgerald(notes). Hopefully, his solid speed isn’t compromised.
Steve Smith (NYG) – Talk about a breakout. Smith caught 107 passes for 1220 yards and 7 TDs in his first year as a full-time starter for the newly pass-happy Giants, and he’s put himself in position to get paid (emphasis intended) should he continue down that path in 2010. Smith has already admitted that he’s looking for a new deal as soon as possible, but it doesn’t look as if the Giants plan on moving quickly. Smith said that his agent is hoping for a new deal “within the year,” so this doesn’t appear to be much like the Miles Austin situation, where Dallas’ talks are ongoing. So if the Giants choose to wait it out, Smith has a lot to lose if he drops back to his 57-catch performance of 2008. Based on his razor sharp play last year and his excellent chemistry with a still-improving Eli Manning(notes), we doubt that’s going to happen, especially with the added motivation. But for good measure, it’s nice to know the thickness of Smith’s wallet is probably in the balance this year.
Santonio Holmes (NYJ) – This is a big year for Holmes. Despite the former Super Bowl MVP violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy and being suspended for the first four games of the 2010 season, the Jets traded for him to give QB Mark Sanchez(notes) another weapon to work with. But Holmes will have four fewer weeks to make an impression on his coaches, and four fewer weeks to show the rest of the NFL he can put his off-field troubles behind him and play in a system that should mix the ball around pretty actively. He’s impressing in camp and saying all the right things thus far – and he’s an extremely gifted receiver – but he does have a lot to prove come the first time he suits up during the regular season. If he behaves himself, his natural talent could mean a big payday. Keep in mind, if he outdoes Edwards, the Jets could let the former Brown walk and break out the checkbook for the former Steeler. So this season is absolutely huge for Holmes.
Laurent Robinson(notes) (Stl) – Robinson has one thing on his mind in 2010: staying healthy. He was slotted as the Rams’ No. 1 WR in 2009 but played in only three games as a broken leg ended his promising season. But he was having a strong showing, despite having zilch at the QB position. The Rams would certainly love to have a big, reliable target in Robinson (a good fit for their WCO) to help out rookie QB Sam Bradford immediately, and for the future. If Robinson is 100 percent for training camp as expected, he could establish himself as a starter early, which would be a great start for him. Should Robinson stay on the field – he’s played just five games over the last two seasons – he’s talented enough to put up some good numbers. And he’s young enough (25) to justify a multi-year extension should he put together a full campaign. Granted, the team may need to see more than just one year before rewarding him with a massive deal, but if he can somehow play all 16 games this year and put up the numbers he’s capable of putting up, he could get a healthy RFA offer from the club in 2011, which would put him one step closer to a mega payday. But first up for Robinson, let’s get through September without suffering any sort of injury.
Steve Breaston(notes) (Ari) – Breaston was one of the first players in the NFL to sign his RFA tender this offseason, and it signaled his intentions to take his new role as a starter to heart. Breaston had been one of the most productive slot receivers in the NFL for the past two seasons, but the Cardinals’ trade of WR Anquan Boldin to Baltimore opened up an opportunity to start on the outside, opposite Larry Fitzgerald. That job is now Breaston’s, and the Cardinals are even willing to move him off punt returns so he can focus on playing WR. The Cardinals have been encouraged by Breaston’s involvement and ambition in camp thus far, and they’re comfortable with him in the starting lineup. If Breaston plays well, a contract extension is certainly not out of the question. But it’s worth mentioning that he’s not exactly proven right now as a full-time starter on the outside. The brief sampling of him in that role is promising, but he has to prove he can sustain a high level of play and production with defenses keyed on him more than ever over the course of a full season. Unfortunately for him, he’ll have to do that without QB Kurt Warner(notes).
Jacoby Jones(notes) (Hou) – Jones has always had an intriguing combination of size and speed, although that didn’t really translate that “fantasy usefulness” until last year, and even then, he was very hit-or-miss. He caught just 27 passes, but gained 437 yards and scored 6 TDs in 2009 (that’s a TD every 4.5 receptions). Jones has been a little slow on the uptake thus far, and he’s struggled with mental lapses and dropped passes over his first three seasons. But he’s appeared confident and has stood out in camps thus far this spring, so this could be a case of better-late-than-never. Given his talent and appealing situations, he’s one of the more interesting contract year guys this season because Texan coach Gary Kubiak anticipates Jones challenging incumbent Kevin Walter(notes) (who got a nice-sized contract himself this offseason) for a starting job alongside Andre Johnson(notes). That’s very interesting because Walter essentially proved last year that he’s ideally suited to play the slot, and the Texan offense on paper would be even more dangerous with Jones on the outside opposite Johnson and Walter sliding inside. In addition, if TE Owen Daniels(notes) has issues returning from his knee injury, Walter could handle a portion of the dirty work inside the hash marks. Jones is a valuable return man already, but he has to prove he’s ready to contribute consistently on offense if he wants to make some real money. It looks like he’s taking the steps to accomplish that. He’s a talented and charismatic guy, but he’s a bit of an enigma. In other words, he could potentially be the next Chad Ochocinco(notes) in more ways than one.
TIGHT ENDS
Six or more years of service time after 2010:
Antonio Gates(notes) (SD) – Let’s just cut to the chase with Gates: He’s going to get re-signed. He’s one of three stars in the San Diego offense in a contract year (WR Vincent Jackson and LT Marcus McNeill), and he’s the only one of the three who isn’t planning an extended holdout. Gates is reportedly the Chargers’ top priority for an extension, and with Jackson staging his potential holdout, it makes it more imperative that the Chargers get their star locked up. It may not get done before the season, but there is nothing to indicate it won’t get done at all.
Bo Scaife(notes) (Ten) – It’s been hard to “get free” for Scaife. He was franchised before the 2009 season, and the expiring CBA meant he was an RFA before the 2010 season. Not only that, but second-year TE Jared Cook(notes) appears to be the future at the position for the Titans, so Scaife, at 29, may be the guy most looking forward to becoming a UFA among all the TEs on this list. Of course, he has a challenge ahead of him. He’s a solid option at the TE position, but he’s averaged fewer than 10.0 YPC in three straight years, and he’s never scored more than two touchdowns in a season. He’ll need to make himself look very appealing to other teams to land a multi-year deal at 30 years old next offseason. Otherwise, the Titans should be interested in him long-term, since he’s a decent blocker and could settle into the No. 2 role behind Cook the next few years.
Five or fewer years of service time after 2010:
Owen Daniels (Hou) – Daniels has been pining for a new deal for over a year now, since he realized the uncapped year in 2010 would result in a restricted free-agency season this year. He took his battle into the summer last year, and only recently did he sign his RFA tender for the 2010 season. You really have to feel for Daniels, since his unbelievably hot start in 2009 seemed to put him in position for landing a juicy extension. But an ACL injury tore (pun intended) his dream campaign in half. Now, he’ll have to reestablish himself as one of the game’s elite TEs to get the ideal money he’s looking for. If he’s healthy, he should have no problem with that, since he plays more like a WR than a TE, and his understanding of the offense and timing with QB Matt Schaub(notes) is impeccable. If Daniels proves to be close to the player he was before the injury, and if there’s a new CBA reached that is comparable to the previous one (likely), there’s a very good chance that Daniels, barring a long-term extension during the season, will be free to sign anywhere in 2011. So clearly, the upcoming campaign is paramount.
Vernon Davis(notes) (SF) – Vernon was the big breakout star at the TE position last year, and the 49ers know it. That’s why there have been reports that Davis is next in line for an extension (since LB Patrick Willis(notes) signed his). Davis has skills that can truly thrive with the 49ers, and as he showed last year, no TE in football can get downfield or catch the ball at its highest point as well as he can. But additionally, he gives fantastic effort as a blocker, perfect for the 49ers’ new run-based offense. Davis said he would ideally have his new deal before the 2010 season begins but is not focusing on it. What may make that a bit more difficult is the fact that, by his own admission, he’s looking at WR money. He’s probably not worth being paid like a high-end wideout because of his limitations as a player (more of a straight-line runner, as opposed to a diverse weapon), but if he puts up another huge season, the Niners may have no other choice than to back the Brinks truck up to Davis’ crib.
Zach Miller (Oak) – Miller’s made a career of being a quiet, but completely necessary, cog in the Raiders offense. In his three seasons with Oakland, he’s increased his catch totals and yardage every season (44/444, 56/778, 66/805), and he’s done it with truly awful QB play. There’s no denying he’s still underrated, but we expect that to change with QB Jason Campbell(notes) coming over to the Black Hole. Miller’s managed to be a consistent receiving threat in Oakland since JaMarcus Russell(notes) arrived, but we have to imagine he’s hailing Campbell’s arrival as much as anyone. In typical Miller fashion, we’ve heard nary a peep about his impending free agency, but if Campbell makes him as indispensable a part of the passing game as he made Chris Cooley(notes) in Washington (and they’re similar players, physically), Miller could land a huge deal to stick around.
Kevin Boss(notes) (NYG) – For the new-look Giants, Boss seems a little out of place. When the Giants run the ball a lot, his superior blocking and effectiveness as a red-zone receiver are highlighted. But when the Giants chuck the ball all over the field, as they did last year, his lack of athleticism shows. That led to an uneven fantasy season, but he did see more pass targets per game in the second half of the season, which was promising. The Giants would probably like to be more balanced ideally, which would allow Boss to showcase his strengths again. But if they maintain a throw-first attack, young Travis Beckum(notes), who runs like a WR, could become the more prominent player in the offense, so that’s a threat to Boss and adds something to the motivation department. No matter what happens with Beckum, unless Boss has a serious injury, he should have no problem finding work – with the Giants or elsewhere – if he continues to block well and make plays in the red zone.
Anthony Fasano(notes) (Mia) – Fasano was a restricted free agent this past season and was tendered at just $1.17 million. He’s been solid since coming over to the Dolphins from Dallas, but he hasn’t been everything the Dolphins hoped. In fact, he was practically invisible when the Dolphins were running their Wildcat-based offense for the first half of the 2009 season. He showed signs of life when the Dolphins let QB Chad Henne(notes) open up the offense, but he’s going to have to put together a full season of work to earn a big contract, which the Dolphins frankly don’t appear interested in at this point. The addition of WR Brandon Marshall(notes) may open things up for Fasano, but he hasn’t proven to be a go-to guy in this offense, and he’s had two years to assert himself so far. If he can prove to be more than just a solid red-zone threat in 2010, however, he’d really help his chances. Otherwise, the Dolphins may be ready to look for an upgrade and a more dynamic player.
Tony Scheffler(notes) (Det) – Scheffler is one of the more underrated receiving threats at the TE position in the NFL, and he apparently was underappreciated by Denver coach Josh McDaniels, who tried to trade him last offseason and did trade him this offseason, after a Week 17 spat left Scheffler inactivated for the Broncos’ final game. Scheffler becomes a versatile weapon for QB Matthew Stafford(notes) in Detroit, and it’s certainly possible both he and TE Brandon Pettigrew(notes) see the field at the same time, since they possess different skill sets. If Scheffler produces the way the Lions envision (some writers have already said that they believe Scheffler will be a big part of their offense), they’d have a difficult time justifying to their suffering fans and to Stafford if they decide to let him walk. Scheffler has a few things to prove, for sure – like if he can rebound from a mediocre year, and that he can avoid off-the-field distractions – but there’s a payoff here if he does in 2010.
Marcedes Lewis(notes) (Jac) – If Lewis plans to stick with the Jags for multiple years in the future, this is a big year for him. For four seasons, he’s been a serviceable TE who is clearly worthy of a roster spot, but nothing he does should be considered spectacular. He has good size, but while he did gain surprising separation at times last year, he’s still slow. And despite being 6-foot-6, he has only six career targets inside the 10-yard line and seven career touchdowns. You can probably thank his inability to (consistently) gain workable separation for that, and the Jags know they can certainly upgrade in that department. Lewis is a solid blocker, but he will have to have a solid year to hold off Zach Miller (not the Raiders version), who is more athletic and his a lot more upside."
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