Correlating RB success with team success (1 Viewer)

[Jercules]

Just wondering if anybody could dig up some stats on the relationship between a RB's fantasy success and the success of the overall team he plays for. For instance, LT and the Chargers both had fantastic years just as the Seahawks and Alexander did a year before, and Faulk and the Rams before that, etc. etc.

Just from off the top of my head, it seems to me that a good rule of thumb, for any RB you'd consider in the first round, is that his team ought to be at least mediocre for you to expect a decent return from him. One notable person that, in my mind, does not fulfill this criteria is Larry Johnson (given the way the Chiefs have been gutted this offseason, can anybody see them topping 6-10? Going from that then, can you see LJ having a top 5 season on a seemingly terrible football team?)

I can't remember any RBs that had huge fantasy seasons on teams that weren't at least in playoff contention in November. Does anyone have the stats to prove/disprove this?

 

[RandyDB]

Below are years that the rushing leader was not on a great team (record wise). Three of the 9-7 teams did make playoffs as a wild card.

1983	Los Angeles Rams		 9  7 0		E Dickerson   1808	18 TD1987	Los Angeles Rams		 6  9 0		C White	   1374	11 TD1989 	Kansas City Chiefs	   8  7 1		C Okoye	   1480	12 TD1990	Detroit Lions			6 10 0		B Sanders	 1304	13 TD1994	Detroit Lions			9  7 0		B Sanders	 1883	 7 TD1996	Detroit Lions			5 11 0		B Sanders	 1553	11 TD1997	Detroit Lions			9  7 0		B Sanders	 2053	11 TD2001	Kansas City Chiefs	   6 10 0		P Holmes	  1555	 8 TD2002	Miami Dolphins		   9  7 0		R Williams	1853	16 TD

 

[radballs]

Even if it might appear that there is some correlation (and I'm not even sure that there is), it still doesn't prove any kind of causation. In other words, maybe it's the RB success that makes the team success and not the other way around. Or, maybe both RB success and the team's success could be independent variables that aren't related at all. Tough to tell but it seems like there are plenty of instances where your premise doesn't hold and the above are some examples.

 

[-OZ-]

It makes sense either way. The team with the lead tends to run more to preserve the lead, control the clock. A team that can run the ball tends to be able to move the ball, control the clock, keep the QB from throwing INTs, and score. Unless of course you're the Colts.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Below are years that the rushing leader was not on a great team (record wise). Three of the 9-7 teams did make playoffs as a wild card.

1983	Los Angeles Rams		 9  7 0		E Dickerson   1808	18 TD1987	Los Angeles Rams		 6  9 0		C White	   1374	11 TD1989 	Kansas City Chiefs	   8  7 1		C Okoye	   1480	12 TD1990	Detroit Lions			6 10 0		B Sanders	 1304	13 TD1994	Detroit Lions			9  7 0		B Sanders	 1883	 7 TD1996	Detroit Lions			5 11 0		B Sanders	 1553	11 TD1997	Detroit Lions			9  7 0		B Sanders	 2053	11 TD2001	Kansas City Chiefs	   6 10 0		P Holmes	  1555	 8 TD2002	Miami Dolphins		   9  7 0		R Williams	1853	16 TD

If you notice, only 4 of these 9 teams had losing records. Not to say that a 9-7 record is great, but if this is the list for the last 24 years, that means 20 of the last 24 RB leaders came from teams with winning records. I'd say 83% is not a fluke.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Just wondering if anybody could dig up some stats on the relationship between a RB's fantasy success and the success of the overall team he plays for. For instance, LT and the Chargers both had fantastic years just as the Seahawks and Alexander did a year before, and Faulk and the Rams before that, etc. etc.Just from off the top of my head, it seems to me that a good rule of thumb, for any RB you'd consider in the first round, is that his team ought to be at least mediocre for you to expect a decent return from him. One notable person that, in my mind, does not fulfill this criteria is Larry Johnson (given the way the Chiefs have been gutted this offseason, can anybody see them topping 6-10? Going from that then, can you see LJ having a top 5 season on a seemingly terrible football team?)I can't remember any RBs that had huge fantasy seasons on teams that weren't at least in playoff contention in November. Does anyone have the stats to prove/disprove this?

Success of the overall team has a clear cut bottom line. Post season victories.The regular season final talley is cute and all but it doesn't mean squat, the only thing of importance to the overall success of the team is post season wins so the obviuos question is the contribution of great RBs to post season success.LdT - Six full seasons in the league. Best RB over that time span. Arguably one of the better RBs in NFL history. Hasn't won a single post season game. He has only been to the playoffs twice in six years. In his six years in the league he's only had two Pro Bowl QBs working with him. BTW the only two times he made the playoffs was when LdT had Pro Bowl QB play.Look at the top RBs who went onto post season success and you'll find Pro Bowl or ALL-PRO or League MVP type of performances at QB. Then look at the jaw-dropping individual greatest RB seasons and you're not going to see them paired up with post season success unless it is attached to solid or great QB play. Jamal Lewis' 2,000 yard season was met with elimination in the first post season contest. Eric Dickerson, Barry Sanders, OJ Simpson, never did anything in the post season but their QB play when they were dominant never amounted to much. You'll find exceptions but exceptions prove the rule. Great RB play is fun to watch and holds a special place in fantasy footballer hearts and does contribute to regular season victories but in the post season it has no positive effect. So only looking at regular season success is flawed logic because regular season is merely a stepping stone to getting to the post season where the best of the league compete so look at post season victories vis-a-vis top RBs. You will not find any correllation and that almost bodes as a negative correllation because at other positions, QB, their is a positive correllation with top play and post season victories. So if a team were to put on blinders for a top RB and neglect their QB position or go in with the false idea that a great RB would be enough of a peripheral boost to the supporting cast to make a marginal QB successful in the post season they would discount the negative post season impact of past top RBs and also the positive impact of top QB play to post season victories. So I think post season victories is the key in evaluating individual top performers at each position. You're not going to find a positive top RB to postseason victory correllation because it doesn't exist.