article that talks about bridgewater and clowney, starting off with the draft in which casserly chose mario williams over reggie bush... if a team like HOU (if they lose tonight will remain as the only two win team in the league and have a stronger grip on the #1 overall pick with three games remaining)...
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10048168/is-jadeveon-clowney-teddy-bridgewater-better-no-1-option-nfl-hot-read
who does the board think the texans would/should (if a difference) take if they end up with the #1 overall pick?
mentioned in the article... past 16 drafts, only two defensive players taken #1 overall... williams, and monumental browns bust courtney brown.
It really depends on who's brought in to replace Kubiak. If the new head coach feels confident enough to hitch his cart to Bridgewater, then he'll be the first pick. Recently, though, it seems like more new head coaches don't take a potential franchise QB with their first draft pick just so that they can spend a year with their new team and get a feel for what they already have...could be that the last coach wasn't using his players effectively (Chip Kelly in PHL) or that you need to build up the rest of your team before you go after your QB (Gus Bradley in JAX). If HOU ends up with the first overall pick, best bet is that they'll take Clowney.
good post.
hard to see kubiak surviving (maybe if they won 3 or 4 of remaining games, even that now questionable, might be too little, too late to salvage his job). not as sure abou the front office/GM expectations.
i was just wondering if the hire/fire cycle iteration were longer in the case of GMs than HCs. without checking, it seems this is so. sometimes they are a package deal and rise and fall together, sometimes not. sometimes personnel is more responsibility of front office, sometimes joint (clearly who has command override is important, like kubrick having final cut written into his studio contracts) and more rarely, that of HC. i think fisher is in the middle category, but he seems to have an excellent working relationship withn snead.
i was also wondering of a GM might be more likely to take into account the team's best long term interests, and a HC more short term (to avoid being fired)... this might recommend the division of power and responsibility (like the thinking of the US government), so too much power isn't concentrated in the hands of an individual with a potential conflict of interest in his different capacities (trying to reconcile the team's best short and long term interests).
a weird thing about this season to me is how many playoff teams are in the mix for a top 1-5 pick were playoff teams just last season. HOU, WAS, ATL & MIN.
HOU and ATL seem better than this year. maybe WAS and MIN weren't as good as last year (WAS started 3-6, than went 7-0)... but i think HOU has lost a ridiculous number of close games (parcells probably usually right you are your record, but imo there is an element of luck, and it doesn't always even out over the course of a year)... maybe something like a third or more of their games by an average of a FG?
so maybe they are better than their record, and not as in need of a franchise QB, if they have good pieces in place around him (watt, cushing, foster, dre johnson - though foster's back injury is concerning, and dre is approaching his mid-30s, and doesn't seem like a happy camper... hopkins looks like he will be a good one, but doubtful ever in dre's class).
but if they are better than 2-10 (shouldn't be too hard), but in retrospect find out they needed better QB play to get them over the hump, the team may be good enough to not get to the playoffs (the case for years)... and if they are better than years when they got carr (albeit a bust) and mario, they may not be in a position so good to pluck a franchise QB again, for a long time.
i think if they think bridgewater is franchise caliber, i think they should take him (unless i knew i was drafting reggie white's clone as the DE).
part of that is based on the texans already have watt (and as far as building to win in the division, luck is a stud, but TEN may not have a QB and JAX doesn't - this isn't like TB maybe taking clowney to knock down brees, ryan and cam), so they aren't exactly hurting at DE... part of the problem in evaluating where HOU is at, and who might help most, whether DE or QB... is this team looks completely different with cushing in the lineup. they were one of the top defenses last year with him, and crumbled without him... they looked much better with him to start the season, and again imploded without him. it doesn't seem like one player could make such a huge difference on defense (certainly on offense, we saw what manning's absence had in 2011), but don't know how else to explain their complete collapses on defense in two different seasons, seemingly timed closely to cushing's exits? if they knew they could count on cushing, it would make the need on defense far less.
clowney has good size for a 4-3 DE, not necessarily for a 3-4 DE (listed 6'6" 275)... so sort of a tweener at that spot, that might bulk up (i think he is almost exact size peppers was at a comparable stage of development, and peppers got bigger, to about 290 lbs. mario williams entered the draft bigger (already 280-290? maybe plays at or over 300 lbs now, in a 4-3/3-4 hybrid - i think he has said he prefers being a 4-3 DE to being a 3-4 OLB, where he had to convert to with a scheme change in HOU - not sure what he thinks about 3-4 DE, where is is certainly big enough to play, and does i think at times in the BUF hybrid defense)...
a lot of 3-4 OLBs are converted undersized DEs used as pass rush specialists. so there he also might be a tweener... in this case a bit bigger than most. because he is so athletic, i think he would project well there, if the coach decided that was his best position in a 3-4. he might be asked to have greater run support responsibility than he is used to, and make more open field tackles than as a DE. don't know if HOU uses OLBs in coverage much (ILB cushing definitely is, and is athletic enough and has the instincts to be very good at - he made a nice diving INT in a nationally televised game early in the year)... he is a freak, so maybe he could do that if needed, but i have to think it wouldn't be a key part of his role.
would he be deployed as a DE or LB in HOU? he is athletic and talented enough to probably play either well. Assuming he could make the conversion to LB, that might be where he could do the most damage as a pass rusher. 3-4 DEs sometimes viewed as more run stuffers and block eaters so LBs can make plays (see antonio smith)... but watt has been more bruce smith-like, a rare premier, elite pass rusher from the 3-4 DE (watt i think also more dominant than smith against the run, who seemed disinterested in that phase of the game at times). could clowney be like watt is from the 3-4.
just looked at clowney's body of work more closely.
best player in nation as a prep, at any position... may be in college, too, which bodes well.
he has starred at every level.
it sounds like he has had foot spur complications dating back to high school, and also surfacing this year (missed a game, after missing another one for strained muscle around rib cage?). teams would want to check there are no serious foot issues (jonathan stewart may have his career destroyed due to chronic, oft-injured and slow to heal foot and ankle injuries).
earlier, when i said if HOU thought bridgewater was a franchise QB, unless they were getting a reggie white clone, i'd amend that.
the key is, which clowney are you going to get.
last year. sign me up. dominated. lookedlike best player in college at any position.
this year. not so much. is he dogging it? is he coasting?
are you sure you will get the 2012 clowney if you pick him?
understood, QBs can bust, too, and any position for that matter may not transition to the next level as well as hoped.
but personally, i'd feel more comfortable staking my job (which the GM and HC might essentially and effectively be doing, with a top 1-3 pick) on a player i'm more sure is going to work hard in practice to improve (because there are almost always adjustments that need to be made going against bigger, stronger, faster, quicker, more explovive, athletic and technically developed opponents in the NFL compared to college), and give maximum effort from game to game and season to season.
i couldn't say that about clowney. but the team that drafts him will presumably answer that question to their satisfaction... or be comfortable rolling the dice on his upside, and accepting the risk he may take plays off and play hard when he wants to.
a team like ATL (that projects to need a DE - big hole since abraham got older, or an OL... but of course not at QB), might be a great fit. they have a great team that just happens to have had the misfortune of a down, outlier season due to injury. GM and HC jobs safe (though if injuries repeated, another 2-10 start in 2014 wouldn't be good). it would take pressure off the pick, he wouldn't be viewed as a franchise saver like mario williams might have been. if he was good but not great, it wouldn't be catastrophic. so other than just obvious scheme fit and BPA/team need considerations, even larger organizational factors may be taken into account.
with julio jones and clowney, the falcons could have two of the top athletes in the NFL at their respective positions, difference makers on both sides of the ball.
in fairness to williams, recent comps like peppers and williams, haven't consistently been JJ watt dominant. williams has been more inconsistent, at times due to injury and maybe getting shuffled around different schemes that didn't always position him to do what he does best. peppers has been healthier, and has always been a 4-3 DE... he has been more consistently good... without looking at his stats, earlier in his career, his production could be sporadic and intermittent, but i think he became pretty consistent... maybe only had a few great seasons, as opposed to very good, depending on how you define those terms... this year has been a microcosm of williams NFL career, playing hurt at times, playing different roles, dominating at times (had like a 5 sacks game earlier in the season?), but than maddeningly and frustratingly disappears for stretches of a few games at a time (in the pass rush and run support).
as to athleticism, clowney is a freak. the highlight reel hit where the RBs helmet flew off flashed his unique combo of speed, strength and explosiveness for the position... but peppers was no slouch. i think he walked on to the north carolina basketball team and was a valuable reserve for a team that advanced in the NCAA tournament (16-8-4, i think the latter?). a teammate described how he tried to jump over an OL, was undercut on the block, flipped in the air, landed on his feet like a cat, than had the alertness and presence of mind to run downfield, and the speed, athleticism and hustle for a big man to chase down the ball carrier on a backside play. that isn't normal.
), than it sounds like he might also fetch better than an extra second rounder. DE Jordan wasn't a once-in-a-generation freak, so moving up to 1.2 to get Clowney could be more expensive than moving up to 1.3 to get Jordan?
Especially with Mariota staying in school.
ism' seems to be the culprit.
