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Countdown To The Top Pick In The 2014 Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Bob Magaw
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pantherclub
Footballguy
You would be foolish, incredibly foolish to compare JM to Wilson.I had the same criticism of the 5'11"/206lb Russell Wilson.
He and Brees are the absolute out layers of small qb's, For everyone one Brees, whose game is completely different than JM, you have 15 Seneca Wallaces.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Those 3 will be 1st round picks. I think there will be more, but I am less confident saying who. Mariota would have been and I think Mettenberger would have before his knee injury. Murray might have been, but he shouldn't have. Now, McCarron, Boyd, Bortles, Fales, and even Garoppolo have cases. Maybe Logan Thomas too, but he sucks. I don't think Hundley declares, fortunately for him.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
And if you think Manziel shares the same skills as Seneca Wallace...I'm not sure what to say next.You would be foolish, incredibly foolish to compare JM to Wilson.I had the same criticism of the 5'11"/206lb Russell Wilson.
He and Brees are the absolute out layers of small qb's, For everyone one Brees, whose game is completely different than JM, you have 15 Seneca Wallaces.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I generally don't like Bleacher Report, even when I agree with an article, but this one sums up how I feel about McCarron.
May squeak into the 2nd round but more likely a 3rd/4th rounder.
May squeak into the 2nd round but more likely a 3rd/4th rounder.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I was referring to small qb's being good in the NFL. Brees and Wilson are the only 2 even remotely close in the last 15 (maybe more) years.And if you think Manziel shares the same skills as Seneca Wallace...I'm not sure what to say next.You would be foolish, incredibly foolish to compare JM to Wilson.I had the same criticism of the 5'11"/206lb Russell Wilson.
He and Brees are the absolute out layers of small qb's, For everyone one Brees, whose game is completely different than JM, you have 15 Seneca Wallaces.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
And before you had Wilson you only had Brees. I know what you're trying to say but you're selling Manziel's football skills short.
MAC_32
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
His football skills will not be able to overcome his size. Plus I dont this his arm is even average by NFL standards. Add the immaturity factor and you have all the factors that scream first round bust.
FUBAR
Footballguy
You disagree with Bleacher Report on just about everything. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1881333-2014-nfl-mock-draft-matt-millers-latest-first-round-projections?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=programming-national
Not sure they're right, but there are other opinions.
FWIW, I don't know who Bortles is. Although I would like to get to know his girlfriend.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
People still sell Doug Flutie short.I was referring to small qb's being good in the NFL. Brees and Wilson are the only 2 even remotely close in the last 15 (maybe more) years.And if you think Manziel shares the same skills as Seneca Wallace...I'm not sure what to say next.You would be foolish, incredibly foolish to compare JM to Wilson.I had the same criticism of the 5'11"/206lb Russell Wilson.
He and Brees are the absolute out layers of small qb's, For everyone one Brees, whose game is completely different than JM, you have 15 Seneca Wallaces.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
UCF, slid under the radar because his numbers aren't eye popping. All the tools are there though. Stepped up and made big throws in big spots in big games. No idea what his intangibles are like though. And he cracked under the South Carolina pass rush a bit too, probably most worrisome of all.
pantherclub
Footballguy
He was a terrible NFL qbPeople still sell Doug Flutie short.I was referring to small qb's being good in the NFL. Brees and Wilson are the only 2 even remotely close in the last 15 (maybe more) years.And if you think Manziel shares the same skills as Seneca Wallace...I'm not sure what to say next.You would be foolish, incredibly foolish to compare JM to Wilson.I had the same criticism of the 5'11"/206lb Russell Wilson.
He and Brees are the absolute out layers of small qb's, For everyone one Brees, whose game is completely different than JM, you have 15 Seneca Wallaces.
battlebaby
Footballguy
Bortles isn't a 1st-round QB talent. He's fine as a developmental guy, but not a "draft and start" pick. Bleacher Report loves to throw in a controversial pick in their mocks to generate more hits on their articles...they have Bortles listed over Manziel.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Their first QB is Bridgewater, at 1.04True, but what does that link have to do with it? They added one more QB
FUBAR
Footballguy
Seems most reports say the same, except that he might be playing his way into the 1st. I don't take that to mean top 10. Maybe KC if they decide they wanted to develop a guy other than Bray. Sounds like a guy Jacksonville could consider trading up for, or taking in the 2nd.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
* [weird that yesterday had a record number of TDs, yet the weather was so brutal. usually that isn't the case. but like LT pointed out about the snow with mccoy, he liked it, because he knew where HE was going, unlike the defenders!]
TOP 10 DRAFTSCAPE - EMPHASIS ON POSSIBLE TOP 3 PERMUTATIONS
This is what I was suggesting, but meeting with resistance. That the QBs in this class are better than 2013, and even if not as good as 2012 (a historically good class if RGIII reemerges as a franchise QB with Luck and Wilson, also includes emerging star Foles and the potentially very good Tannehill), it could be the kind of draft that could generate value for the top one or two teams. A draft where there aren't zero QBs carrying a potentially high grade... but not so many that teams can wait (after Bridgewater, are Carr or Manziel good enough, will Hundley declare, some rumblings that he wants to). Even if this class isn't as good as 2012, if it also isn't as bad as 2013 (Manuel mid-first pedigree and Geno Smith second - arguably modest third round pedigree Mike Glennon has played the best this year - Greg Cosell recently noted that he was doing some things better than RGIII, though I didn't read it, don't know if it accounted for RGIIIs injury recovery, but passing along as I respect him as an independent scout and NFL talent evaluator), one lesson from past drafts is *IF* there is a draft with potentially 3-4 top 10-15 QBs, and *IF* there are correspondingly 3-4 teams (if not more) looking for a starting QB, they tend to find each other, and QBs tend to get pushed up the board.
This is an interesting draft in which, not only are there several potential starting QBs and teams that need them, but a few of the teams were playoff teams as recently as 2012 (WAS and ATL aren't in the market, but HOU and MIN are expected to be, as well as JAX and CLE... OAK and TB COULD be also - see above on Glennon, and the Bucs have between now and the draft to further evaluate him)... typically top 10 overall pedigree QBs don't go to good teams (unless through trade) for obvious reasons, or they wouldn't have been drafting there...
here is the top "10" draft order updated through today (DAL/CHI game won't impact anything in the sequence)... as of now, we only need to look nine deep, there is only one 11 loss team, just two 10 loss teams (that meet each other in week 15, with huge top 3-5 implications), one odd ball 9 loss team with only 3 wins because of a tie, and five nine loss teams (with four wins).
>>>how many QBs could be drafted in the "top nine"?
1 - HOU (2-11)
2 - STL/WAS (3-10)
3 - ATL (3-10)
4 - MIN (3-9-1)
5 - OAK (4-9)
6 - JAX (4-9)
7 - CLE (4-9)
8 - BUF (4-9)
9 - TB (4-9)
10 - PIT (5-8) shown next, but a cluster of eight loss teams after, including STL. it was just brought up that STL and TB play in the last three weeks, so that could begin to have some top 10 implications, depending on how tie-breakers are sorted. It sounds like the tie breaker formula punishes teams that have higher SOS, and rewards teams with lower SOS, presumably with the rationale that they are worse, and need help more. Being in the NFC West (now maybe the best and most competitive division in the NFL, with six games against top 10 defenses, SEA and SF in the conversation of the top 3 teams in the league, and ARI still in the playoff hunt), guessing that wouldn't favor STL in these kind of potential tie breaker scenarios... rams fans can take some consolation in the fact that they also have the inside track for the 1.2 if WAS loses out. Of course, if any among the current cluster of nine loss teams (OAK, JAX, CLE, BUF and/or TB) win even one more game in the last three weeks, they get pushed up the stack into the adjacent cluster of five win teams.
As noted above, this week's battle royale between WAS @ ATL has potential huge implications for the top 3-5, as they are the only two teams in the 10 loss cluster. Any instances with potential top 5-10 implications of teams from the cluster of nine loss teams facing each other in the three weeks of the season (and we need to add MIN to that list, situated between the two 10 win teams and five nine win teams, due to their rare tie)? BUF @ JAX is the only remaining one. That is important, as there will be at least ONE remaining instance where one of the teams above under discussion has to win a game (unless a tie as in MIN?), and will be pushed down the stack into the cluster of five win teams.
>>>To the thread in general, with STL being the only team at present with the potential for two top 10 picks, who should the rams pick if they have the #2 and #10 (include trade down scenarios if desired)?
>>>What would it cost for CLE to get to 1.1 or 1.2 (If HOU takes Clowney, not a slam dunk they won't)?
An interesting dynamic in the draft is the looming WAS @ ATL game. IF ATL wins and WAS loses, STL will stay in the 1.2 spot, ATL would be pushed down out of the three spot, at least one spot and flipping with MIN (if they lose out), and possibly more depending on full season SOS tie-breaker formula (maybe further if they don't lose out). ATL won't be looking for a QB, but they have been linked with DE Clowney, and possibly LT Matthews. They could be in a situation where if they LOSE (pushing WAS/STL out of the current 1.2 and down into the cluster of four win teams), Clowney could fall into their lap at 1.2 (UNLESS HOU takes Clowney, than they might take the LT). Getting back to the above, if they WIN over WAS, they could find themselves pushed further back, and maybe have to trade up with STL (who has the rights to the pick through the opponent ATL could beat), if they want Clowney (if HOU takes Bridgewater which imo is more likley, or at least SOME QB and not the DE - not with questions swirling around... even if he is the Calvin Johnson and Vernon Davis of DE prospects, and not "only" a once in a decade/generation prospect, but arguably the top athlete the position has seen, surpassing even the likes of Julius Peppers and Mario Williams).
Different top 3 scenarios
1 - HOU... could be straightforward, and need only look at two positions, QB and DE (the latter not because HOU has a massive need at the position, but on a BPA basis... he does look like a historically good athlete that should destroy the combine, so in the interim, the Texans, probably STL, certainly ATL and possibly other teams will want to do their homework on background, character, work ethic, personality, attitude, and various other intangibles, to have a better sense when committing a big poker chip (albeit not the massive contract repercussions-wise as under the old CBA and former labor agreement) if he will work hard and not just be in it for the money (a hard thing to do, when you think about it, teams make mistakes all the time and suffer through busts, sometimes from being fooled in interviews - humans aren't mind readers and can't drill down to penetrate into Clowney's inner world, see into his mind and heart [[can't measure a man's heart]], and predict the future of his behavior and actions, so the scouting process has a large element of psychology, and can be more art than science... it isn't just about the physics and mechanics of running fast, jumping high and hitting hard).
A possible branching point for HOU from those two simple options of taking a QB or DE at 1.1 if they lose out (if they win, not sure they would flip with WAS/STL for the 1.2 pick based on SOS tie breaker formula, or even further back, past ATL?), would be to trade down with a team. Zero chance, imo, STL would trade up from 1.2 to 1.1. If HOU trades down with a team like ATL (if no higher than 1.3 where they are now - would ATL move up from 1.2 to 1.1 for Clowney if WAS wins the game against the Falcons and pushes them up a notch closer to the top?), they know it is probably for Clowney (Matthews could be STL choice, unclear if ATL would like him enough to try and leapfrog STL, my guess is Clowney is likely the only prospect in the draft they might consider doing that for)? It would seem safe to assume in that case they were OK with passing on Clowney, or willing to take the risk that he doesn't fall to them later, at any rate. If they trade further down with a team known to be looking for a QB (MIN, JAX or CLE, possibly also OAK and/or TB), it would similarly seem safe to assume they were OK with passing on the top QB, if in fact a consensus #1 QB prospect separates himself from the pack between now and then - in 2012, Luck/RGIII were thought to be pretty close during the scouting process in terms of being widely viewed as potential franchise QBs... the Manning/Leaf draft was similar, though it seems laughable now, it was close at the time). Between now and the draft, we will have a better sense of the QB landscape, and have a better sense of whether HOU could trade down and still land a guy like Carr (!?!? really, again
) or Manziel, if they lock in on them but think they are better value at 1.3 or 1.5 or 1.10, etc. Between now and the draft, it is even possible Carr or Manziel could surpass widely viewed current #1 QB prospect from the class of '14, Bridgewater. In which case, if HOU does want a QB and locks in on one of these guys other than Bridgewater, they may have to use the 1.1 pick and not flip it, or risking losing their choice.2 - STL/WAS... again, not moving up from the 1.2, Snead and Fisher have shown they are willing and able to trade down (and up) when they think it suits them (my recollection is that previous STL front office/HC regimes were more timid and reluctant to try to maximize value by manipulating the draft through moving up and down according to their needs/resources [[by trading down with DAL to pick Brockers when they would have taken him anyways where they already were before the trade, did carry some risk of losing him, but when it worked out and they got their guy, it ended up being a good calculated risk]] or go up and get blue chip targets [[1.16 and their second for the 1.8 used on Austin]] than Snead and Fisher - BUT, part of that is due to the previously noted different CBA landscape, which makes it VASTLY easier to move in and out of the top few picks without such onerous and dire consequences if a mistake was made [[everybody in the building gets fired if they bust - meaning high picks only changed hands for elite prospects, typically QBs, like Michael Vick and John Elway]]... also there are just the historical vagaries and fateful whims of each given draft classes composition and makeup at the top, which worked well for the rams in 2012 and may again in 2014, but most definitely didn't when they ended up taking colossal 1.2 overall LT bust Jason Smith, now out of the league, when there weren't enough/any top prospects that year to generate interest in the pick).
With two picks, STL WILL have options (a good thing, because HOU looks more constrained to QB or DE, but STL has multiple needs on both sides of the ball - so this section is longer to reflect the greater number of positions of possible interest), and could use the higher pick (if it remains 1.2) on a player like DE Clowney (if still avail). Some think they should on a BPA basis, even though they already have Quinn and Long, and despite Long being paid a lot and Quinn about to join him. Maybe Fisher will decide he is too risky based on his Haynesworth experience. Maybe not, because if he learned his lesson, he has a funny way of showing it (recall TEN additionally took failed QB VY and the deeply troubled Pacman on Fisher's watch, though not sure if Floyd Reese had final decision authority on draft matters?), as in his first two years in STL he has taken obvious "bad boys" with character red flags and off field indiscretions, such as Jenkins and Ogletree, but less obvious ones like Trumaine Johnson and Chris Givens (college red flags, and along with Jenkins suspended one game as rookies... i think Johnson also had a DUI in the offseason?) and RB bust Pead. Given that history and precedent, Fisher has proven he is more comfortable and therefore likely than some to take a gamble on character risks (unlike immediate predecessor and ex-HC Spagnuolo's four pillars philosophy - Jenkins and Ogletree never would have been drafted under his watch).
If STL uses the 1.2, but not on Clowney, LT Matthews or WR Sammy Watkins could be possibilities (though that is Park Place and Boardwalk-like real estate for a WR, even one as good as Watkins, who had one of the best freshman seasons for a WR in NCAA history based on being AP first team All American). Maybe they could trade down with a team like ATL looking for Clowney (if still avail) or one of as many as 3-5 teams looking for a QB (if HOU takes Clowney, or a team like ATL that traded into that spot). In the latter scenario, having a wide range of options as to potentially interested trade partners loking for a QB (maybe Snead uses his sealed bid system again, which helped get such great results last time?) would entail being able to make more precise and surgical movements to better leverage and maximize value of the traded pick, but still land in the right place to land their preferred target, or fall within a range of several targets they like (maybe they can get Matthews or Watkins later, or a prospect like WR Mike Evans if Watkins goes early... further back, #1 FS Clinton-Dix a possibility).
With the second potential top 10 pick, they could also stay there, move down, but also move up. Snead and Fisher have yet to make a first round pick from its original spot (Brockers and Ogletree on trade downs, Austin by moving up). Austin cost a second to move from 1.16 to 1.8. They might ALREADY be at the 1.8 with their SECOND and LOWER first rounder. So it might only cost a third (or second), say, to move up a few draft slots if they were to covet a second possible top 5 prospect? Some of these scenarios don't have to presuppose the first pick being top 2. All I would add, in the first two years of Fisher/Snead's regime, they have juggled philosophies and criteria to add quantity or quality or both. In the first year, quantity was emphasized (though Brockers is great, they traded down multiple times). In the second year, having two picks enabled satisfying both criteria, trading up for Austin and Stacy and trading down to get Ogletree. With two more picks in 2014, they could also add quality and quantity. They had a lot of holes in year one and two, less now, but they still have many needs between starters and depth on both sides of the ball. But, IMO, they are at a stage where they need to start adding quality, blue chip, potential Pro Bowl players. I hope they add at least one of Matthews or Watkins/Evans, possibly two of that group (I'd add FS Clinton-Dix). DE Robert Quinn might be the rams only Pro Bowl caliber player on both sides of the ball. Based on the maxim to be built to win your division (STL was undefeated and competitive within the NFC West division in 2012, and while they were in the 2013 season opener with ARI and later SEA, they weren't in two losses to SF this year, the past game where ARI just got revenge, and won't be in the last game against SEA, which is away), looking at division leaders SEA and SF, they both have multiple Pro Bowl caliber players. To take the next step within the division, STL needs to acquire some/more of their own.
3 - ATL... some scenarios already explored above, depending on whether they draft from 1.2, 1.3, or trade up. If they win at home this week against reeling WAS, that could push themselves back where they might have to trade up for Clowney or Matthews (latter more likely to drop past 1.2 pick, and they might not have to trade up, depending on their ultimate spot). If they lose, that could increase the liklihood that they stay in position to have Clowney or Matthews fall into their lap, without needing to move up. IF HOU and STL (or team/s trading into their spot/s) were to take a combination of Clowney and Matthews off the board with the first two picks, that would allow Bridgewater (or another top QB prospect like Carr, Maziel or Hundley) to fall to the 1.3 pick... or further, depending on what ATL did. Maybe the Falcons would trade the pick that could be used on Bridgewater (who could easily be picked from either of the 1.1 or 1.2 slots). If not, they won't be taking a QB (not sure who they would take if Clowney AND Matthews gone, possibly a stud defender like Barr, who could be a nice Clowney consolation prize, or OT prospect like Lewan?). Which could mean Bridgewater (or whoever emerges as the top QB) falls at least to 1.4.
>>>Between HOU (who could have a need at QB but might want Clowney or to trade down) and #4 MIN, are two QB buffer teams in STL and ATL not expected to take QBs. Which is why those two slots could be attractive destinations for a hypothetical team like CLE looking for a potential franchise QB, to jump in front of the next bunch of teams past the STL/ATL QB buffer region or zone. Starting with MIN, there are four teams in a row with known QB needs or the possibility (MIN, OAK, JAX & CLE). BUF at 1.8 (same slot as 2013, come to think of it?) would be the next QB buffer region or zone teams might want to target jumping into, as TB at 1.9 could take a QB, depending on their evaluation of Glennon between now and the draft.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Jadeveon Clowney stopped for doing 110 mph*
This may "fuel" off field concerns (but maybe concerns about his motor were misplaced).
Not a good idea, obviously, but Josh Gordon got into driving trouble in the offseason, so we probably shouldn't read too much into it... though, Gordon wasn't months away from the biggest payday of his life so far. Hopefully Clowney realizes it is to his advantage to do everything in his power to put his best foot forward (and not the lead foot) during the evaluation process.
*http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/09/jadeveon-clowney-stopped-for-doing-110-mph/
This may "fuel" off field concerns (but maybe concerns about his motor were misplaced).
Not a good idea, obviously, but Josh Gordon got into driving trouble in the offseason, so we probably shouldn't read too much into it... though, Gordon wasn't months away from the biggest payday of his life so far. Hopefully Clowney realizes it is to his advantage to do everything in his power to put his best foot forward (and not the lead foot) during the evaluation process.
*http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/09/jadeveon-clowney-stopped-for-doing-110-mph/
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
How did that RG III trade work out for the team who traded-up for Griffin?
Wasn't worth it according to Havard Sports Analysis and they came to that conclusion in March of 2012 well before the team from Washington fell on their face this year to make the deal even worse for them.
If you are not aware of Harvard Sports Analysis they've been around for a long time and do hard core statistical analysis.
After crunching the numbers they came to the conclusion that for the deal to work out for Washington RG III would have-to-have a career equal to Tom Brady.
The NFL has hired analytic squads who crunch numbers all-day and I'm sure that they are intimately aware of these findings which means that their is very-scant chance that any team will ever over-pay to move-up for a player like Washington did in the RG III trade.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/evaluating-the-redskins-trade-for-robert-griffin-iii/
The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective
Evaluating the Redskins Trade for Robert Griffin IIIPosted on March 10, 2012by kevinmeers
On Friday night, reports emerged that the Washington Redskins had agreed to give the St. Louis Rams their first and second round picks this year, along with their 2013 and 2014 first round picks in exchange for the second overall pick. While there are a number of storylines in this trade, this post examines the expected value that the Redskins sacrificed to get the second overall pick.
Because I grew up in Washington, this post is Redskins-centric. If you are wondering how it affects the Rams, just flip all of the analysis below.
Using my previous analysis of the draft, this post examines two things: first, how much the Redskins actually paid for Robert Griffin III, and second, how well RGIII has to perform to justify this price. Because this trade involves future draft picks whose exact overall number is impossible to know, we must assign some value to them. Since teams cannot know what draft position they will have the following year, I assume that the expected value of those picks is the average of the picks in that round. For example, a future first round pick is worth the average value of all picks in the first round. Using this assumption, I evaluate this trade and compare it to the Julio Jones and Ricky Williams trades from previous years.
From an expected value perspective, the Redskins definitively lost this trade (to put it mildly). The second overall pick carries an expected Career Approximate Value Over Average (eCAVOA) of 435.4. The 6th and 38th overall picks have a combined eCAVOA of 525.1. If the Redskins had given up just these picks, they would have lost 89.7 eCAVOA, which is the equivalent of the 114th overall pick (the middle of the 4th round).
If this price had been the extent of the trade, it would have been defensible. A 525.1 eCAVOA translates to a CAV of 78.7, essentially equaling Matt Hasselbeck’s CAV. So RGIII would have only had to equal Hasselbeck for this trade to be equal.
However, the Redskins gave much more: their next two first round draft picks. The average expected value of a first round pick is 276.8 eCAVOA, which brings the total eCAVOA the Redskins gave up to 1078.7. The Rams only gave up 435.4 eCAVOA, giving them a net gain of 643.3 eCAVOA, equivalent to the first and 57th overall draft picks.
However, the above calculations assume that picks this year have equal value to picks in the future. Since that assumption is false, we have to discount the value of those draft picks. We can calculate the discount rate the Redskins placed on their future first round picks by setting the values on each side of this trade equal to each other, with r equal to the discount rate:
But just how bad was this trade? In The Loser’s Curse, Cade Massey and Richard Thaler found that teams discount future draft picks at a rate of 173%. I agree with the authors’ comment that this discount rate is “staggering”, but it is much less clear what rate teams should use. With this value, our equation becomes:
Given the discounted value of the future draft picks, the total price the Redskins paid was 753.5 eCAVOA. That price translates to a CAV of 113.0, comparable to Tom Brady’s current production to date (109 CAV). For the Redskins to get the equivalent value from RGIII as they spent acquiring him, he must produce at least as much as Tom Brady. If RGIII merely lives up to his eCAVOA, he’ll finish his career having slightly outperformed David Garrard (61 CAV). Because all-time-great quarterbacks are rare commodities, the Redskins likely lost value both on paper and in reality.
This trade is very comparable to some of the most lopsided trades from the past few years. Last offseason, the Atlanta Falcons gave the 26th, 69th, and 124th, overall picks along with their 1st and 4th round picks this year for the 6th overall pick, which they used on Julio Jones. The calculations below determine the value they lost from this trade.
Wasn't worth it according to Havard Sports Analysis and they came to that conclusion in March of 2012 well before the team from Washington fell on their face this year to make the deal even worse for them.
If you are not aware of Harvard Sports Analysis they've been around for a long time and do hard core statistical analysis.
After crunching the numbers they came to the conclusion that for the deal to work out for Washington RG III would have-to-have a career equal to Tom Brady.
The NFL has hired analytic squads who crunch numbers all-day and I'm sure that they are intimately aware of these findings which means that their is very-scant chance that any team will ever over-pay to move-up for a player like Washington did in the RG III trade.
http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/03/10/evaluating-the-redskins-trade-for-robert-griffin-iii/
The Harvard Sports Analysis Collective
Evaluating the Redskins Trade for Robert Griffin IIIPosted on March 10, 2012by kevinmeers
On Friday night, reports emerged that the Washington Redskins had agreed to give the St. Louis Rams their first and second round picks this year, along with their 2013 and 2014 first round picks in exchange for the second overall pick. While there are a number of storylines in this trade, this post examines the expected value that the Redskins sacrificed to get the second overall pick.
Because I grew up in Washington, this post is Redskins-centric. If you are wondering how it affects the Rams, just flip all of the analysis below.
Using my previous analysis of the draft, this post examines two things: first, how much the Redskins actually paid for Robert Griffin III, and second, how well RGIII has to perform to justify this price. Because this trade involves future draft picks whose exact overall number is impossible to know, we must assign some value to them. Since teams cannot know what draft position they will have the following year, I assume that the expected value of those picks is the average of the picks in that round. For example, a future first round pick is worth the average value of all picks in the first round. Using this assumption, I evaluate this trade and compare it to the Julio Jones and Ricky Williams trades from previous years.
From an expected value perspective, the Redskins definitively lost this trade (to put it mildly). The second overall pick carries an expected Career Approximate Value Over Average (eCAVOA) of 435.4. The 6th and 38th overall picks have a combined eCAVOA of 525.1. If the Redskins had given up just these picks, they would have lost 89.7 eCAVOA, which is the equivalent of the 114th overall pick (the middle of the 4th round).
If this price had been the extent of the trade, it would have been defensible. A 525.1 eCAVOA translates to a CAV of 78.7, essentially equaling Matt Hasselbeck’s CAV. So RGIII would have only had to equal Hasselbeck for this trade to be equal.
However, the Redskins gave much more: their next two first round draft picks. The average expected value of a first round pick is 276.8 eCAVOA, which brings the total eCAVOA the Redskins gave up to 1078.7. The Rams only gave up 435.4 eCAVOA, giving them a net gain of 643.3 eCAVOA, equivalent to the first and 57th overall draft picks.
However, the above calculations assume that picks this year have equal value to picks in the future. Since that assumption is false, we have to discount the value of those draft picks. We can calculate the discount rate the Redskins placed on their future first round picks by setting the values on each side of this trade equal to each other, with r equal to the discount rate:
6th pick + 38th pick + 2013 1st Rounder + 2014 1st Rounder = 2nd pick +surplus value
341.5 + 183.7 + 276.8/(1+r)n + 276.8/(1+r)n+1 = 435.4 + surplus value
276.8/(1+r)n + 276.8/(1+r)n+1 = -89.8 + surplus value
This equation cannot be solved where surplus value = 0. Even if r equaled infinity, this equation would not balance without a surplus. The only way it could be possible would be if the Redskins negatively valued their future first round draft picks. Given their previous willingness to trade away picks, this may not be far off. However, assuming that having first round picks is actually good for your team, this trade is awful for the Redskins.But just how bad was this trade? In The Loser’s Curse, Cade Massey and Richard Thaler found that teams discount future draft picks at a rate of 173%. I agree with the authors’ comment that this discount rate is “staggering”, but it is much less clear what rate teams should use. With this value, our equation becomes:
276.8/(2.73) + 276.8/(2.73)2 = -89.8 + surplus value
138.5 = -89.8 + surplus value
228.3 = surplus value
An eCAVOA of 228.3 equates to the 22nd overall pick. So with this trade, the Redskins lost the expected value equivalent to the 22nd overall pick.
But let’s not jump to conclusions. RGIII could be better than the average second overall pick. In fact, he could be the best second overall pick ever. So how good does RGIII have to be to justify this trade?Given the discounted value of the future draft picks, the total price the Redskins paid was 753.5 eCAVOA. That price translates to a CAV of 113.0, comparable to Tom Brady’s current production to date (109 CAV). For the Redskins to get the equivalent value from RGIII as they spent acquiring him, he must produce at least as much as Tom Brady. If RGIII merely lives up to his eCAVOA, he’ll finish his career having slightly outperformed David Garrard (61 CAV). Because all-time-great quarterbacks are rare commodities, the Redskins likely lost value both on paper and in reality.
This trade is very comparable to some of the most lopsided trades from the past few years. Last offseason, the Atlanta Falcons gave the 26th, 69th, and 124th, overall picks along with their 1st and 4th round picks this year for the 6th overall pick, which they used on Julio Jones. The calculations below determine the value they lost from this trade.
26th pick + 69th pick + 124th pick + 1st rounder + 4th rounder = 6th pick + surplus value
216.1 + 132.7 + 82.5 + 276.8/2.73 + 91.9/2.73 = 341.5 + surplus value
224.9 = surplus value
This calculation shows that the Falcons sacrificed almost the exact same value to acquire Jones as the Redskins did for RGIII. For the Falcons to get the same value from Jones as they spent drafting him, he must perform similarly to Keyshawn Johnson (78 CAV).
For what it’s worth, the Redskins trade is still much better than the Saints’ trade for Ricky Williams. In 1999, the Saints traded the 12th, 71st, 107th, 144th, 179th, 218th, along with a first and fourth rounder the following year for the 5th overall pick.665.7 + 276.8/2.73 + 91.9/2.73 = 357.1 + surplus value
443.7 = surplus value
That surplus is almost exactly double what the Falcons and Redskins gave up in their trades. For the Saints to get the production that they paid for out of Williams, he would have had to perform as well as Barry Sanders (CAV of 122). A Hall-of-Fame career is too much to expect from any draft pick.
Regardless of the rationale behind this move, the Redskins lost a tremendous amount of value in this trade, potentially setting the team back for years. If RGIII does not pan out – whether because of talent or injury – Washington would be left with no quarterback and no first round draft picks for the next two years. Regardless of RGIII’s future, the Redskins lost about as much expected value as the Falcons gave up last year to acquire Julio Jones. While RGIII will bring excitement to Washington, the conclusion here is clear. This trade was a bad move by the Redskins, and one of the worst moves in recent history. Vintage Redskins.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Two things I just don't get about the trade - was someone else jumping to the #2 spot if the Redskins didn't make the trade? Was Cleveland not willing to trade their pick for less than Washington gave? The Rams were not taking RG3 if they kept the pick. And Why did this trade take place over a month before the draft?
Also, for a contrary opinion just two months ago: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/washington-redskins-not-st-louis-rams-winning-rg3-191800160--nfl.html
Also, for a contrary opinion just two months ago: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/washington-redskins-not-st-louis-rams-winning-rg3-191800160--nfl.html
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
The Browns were offering more at the time for the pick than what Washington paid at that time.
One other factor was that Cleveland was trying to trade for QB Sam Bradford because the Browns HC at that time was Pat Shurmer who was the Rams OC and Sam was making progress in the WC system that both Shurmer and Browns President, at that time, Mike Holmgren prefered.
So the Rams 'could' have dealt QB Sam Bradford where they would have drafted RG III and then had probably Cleveland's first pick in the 2012 draft, 4th, and they could have still traded down as they did with Washington's pick 6th to get the same player they took in the first round DT Brockers but they wouldn't have had the extra second round pick that year or the late first they got this year from Washington, and ofcourse they wouldn't be sitting on the high pick from Washington.
I would imagine the Browns would have also had to give-up more than their first pick of 2012 but I don't know how much.
The Rams would have had RG III but both Griffin and Sam Bradford have been hurt. We don't know if the same scenario would have played out if Bradford would have been traded to the Browns and the Rams would have drafted RG III.
But Cleveland was offering their two-first round pick in 2012, 4th and 22nd, and their second round pick of 2012 which I think was the 37th pick, very high. They also were offering their 2013 first round pick which was the 6fh pick but if the Browns would have had RG III they very-likely would have won more games and would have been drafting later in the first round.
I think they would have won 3 more games which would have put the pick around the middle of the first round to St. Louis.
Instead the Rams took a lower pick in the 2012 draft, 6th instead of 4th. Also the 22nd pick the Browns were offering was higher and of more value than the late pick the Rams got this year from Washington because it came a year earlier so the time valuation of assets means a value today is worth more than a value tomorrow and that is very-true for NFL draft picks and is indicated in every trade of a pick today for a HIGHER pick the next year.
EDIT: Oops, to address your other topic.
Harvard Sports Analysis doesn't offer opinions without hard statistical analysis.
The Yahoo piece is a commentary and its correctly labeled a commentary.
The Harvard Analysis was made instantly after the deal and used values to statistically break down the deal in terms of value. They came to an objective statistical analysis and projected their findings forward and two months ago, or at some point in the 2012 season, someone could have looked at the deal and declared Washington a winner but not today.
We honestly won't know how the deal will turn out until all of the chips are cashed in but the Rams hold more chips.
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cstu
Footballguy
Do you remember the RGIII hype at that time? The Redskins weren't going to take any chances about losing him.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
That article was written in MARCH OF 2012 so at that time Washington had not drafted QB Kirk Cousins and I have no idea who they had at quarterback when the ariticle was written in March of 2012 when the deal went down.
So when the article was written that statement was probably correct.
FUBAR
Footballguy
The article ignores a lot of things, including free agency, other picks, etc.
I won't say the Redskins "won" the trade, but I don't think they lost it either.
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
Both Washington and Dallas were facing pentalties of losing millions of free agency dollars to spend due to violating an NFL cap rule previously.
If you want to bash the article for not including EVERYTHING then ok but come on guy. That article was written in March of 2012 and the conclusions it came to will be determined when all aspects of the deal are complete but it looks like the conclusions that they came to were based off of more than mere chance.
The number that they projected for future draft picks, just to make the conclusions that the Rams won value, was the future picks that they would get from Washington would be the 22nd pick.
The pick that they got this year was LATER than the 22nd pick, I think, but obviously the pick that the Rams will get in 2014 will be MUCH HIGHER than the 22nd pick so the value that the Rams got is even BETTER than the value that Harvard Sports Analysis projected back in March of 2012.
Not sure why you are so sore about the article, it looks solid and so do the values they came up with at that time.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
can we have more top pick in 2014 draft talk
instead of this redskins drivel? no one cares
instead of this redskins drivel? no one cares
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
bracie, did you think at one time STL should have accepted the CLE offer? (edit - hadn't seen you touched on this in post 274 at the time i was writing this - i was going to ask if you would advise STL to take CLE deal instead knowing what we know now about how high it looks like pick could be - of course, nobody had any way of knowing at the time what would happen to RGIII and WAS - the tough thing about giving up consecutive firsts, is that if there was a key injury, tough to reload the following year, so a double whammy pushed the record down further than if either thing had happened by itself - the injury or not having a first). also, when I reference STL and the 1.2 below, that is just a place marker for who holds the slot at this time... but the more general ideas still apply.
IMO there is a 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 consensus...
in this draft, the QBs are not on the level of luck and RGIII. luck is generally acknowledged as probably the top QB prospect since peyton (maybe extending further back to elway)... some may argue he has regressed (i don't), but his relative standing in draft history is i think pretty indisputable. since the class isn't the same, nobody expects a jackpot three first kind of payday. we probably don't need to keep bringing that up. lets talk about what people are talking about, not what they aren't talking about.
but the top few picks will have some value.
if clowney is picked 1.1, and CLE wants to move to 1.2 for the top QB (bridgewater, carr, manziel, hundley?), it will cost more thn a third. i think by the chart, even if bridgewater went 1.1, and ATL was around 1.4 (win at home against WAS sunday?), if they wanted to get clowney or matthews, it would cost a second and third (STL could have two 1sts, 2nds & 3rds ). i don't think that is going to happen, and i realize some teams tear up the chart (OAK did - you are right, if you want to move the pick, it is worth what you can get for it... but MIN didn't when they traded a 2, 3 & 4 for the low-first rights used on patterson)... but again, it will have some value...
IF there are three of four possible top 10-15 QBs, and 4-5 teams looking in the first 10 picks, that could be a recipe where their value is driven up. even if you are right that bridgewater isn't all that, one or possibly two could emerge as the desired target. after HOU (who could take a QB), there are two teams in STL and ATL that aren't expected to take QBs... than a group of 3-4 straight expected to be in the market. right now, MIN is at 1.4 (right after STL and ATL). you don't have to be a mind reader to figure out what position MIN might be thinking about. teams behind THEM, may be thinking about a few things... do they jump in front of MIN (and the other top 5-10 teams in the market). if so, do you go through STL or ATL? if you have only one target, than the pick held by STL would be of greater interest... if a team liked either of two QBs available, than ATL would suffice.
Seemingly, if there is only one QB that separates himself in the process, and HOU takes clowney, that makes the pick even more valuable. than if multiple teams are interested, they know they have to jump over MIN and each other, which creates a bidding war. and they would need to get to the STL pick, not ATL, otherwise they risk getting scooped by another team that got to STL first... ATL pick wouldn't help.
with a few paramters, think of this process in terms of a lab chemistry experiment where you are trying to create ideal conditions for a chemical reaction...
1 - need more than zero top #1 overall QB prospects, but not too many where teams can wait.
2 - a group of 3-5 teams that might be gunning for the top few prospects if there is some separation during the evaluation process (subtracting hundley out could create additional demand).
3 - sort of a perfect storm situation where the right teams with the right needs and aligned interests are in the right place at the right time... STL might not have had the pick, but they do, so good timing... maybe the teams that need a QB could have been in the 20s, and STL didn't want to drop that far, but to still emerge with a top 5 and top 10, blue chip-type prospect - so that is fortuitous... if STL doesn't want to use the pick on a QB, that creates a condition where the pick can change hands.
so again, i don't see three 1sts if a team moves to 1.1 or 1.2... but more than a 3rd (2nd was another pick proferred earlier) if a team is trying to move up past MIN for instance (like CLE at around 1.8).
note that maybe MIN can play chicken. if they know STL and ATL aren't taking a QB, and maybe they are pretty sure ATL will use pick on clowney or matthews, than they can weigh a possible move with STL. if price seems reasonable, they might do it so another team doesn't snipe their target... and as far as reasonableness, it might be a better tradeoff for rams to get what they can get but still be as high as 1.4 to get matthews or watkins (as opposed to getting maybe two firsts from CLE, for arguments sake, but losing out on both prospects - though maybe they could get mike evans?)... if MIN thinks STL is asking too much, they may roll the dice that teams behind them come to the same conclusion... if STL asks too much, and prices themselves out of the trade market, than the QB will fall to MIN, and they win the game of chicken. but the teams BEHIND MIN, can't afford to play that game of chicken... because if they want a QB, and the one they want is expected to go to MIN, they have to go through STL or ATL to jump them (and again, ATL may just want to use the pick on clowney or matthews).
IMO there is a 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 consensus...
in this draft, the QBs are not on the level of luck and RGIII. luck is generally acknowledged as probably the top QB prospect since peyton (maybe extending further back to elway)... some may argue he has regressed (i don't), but his relative standing in draft history is i think pretty indisputable. since the class isn't the same, nobody expects a jackpot three first kind of payday. we probably don't need to keep bringing that up. lets talk about what people are talking about, not what they aren't talking about.
but the top few picks will have some value.
if clowney is picked 1.1, and CLE wants to move to 1.2 for the top QB (bridgewater, carr, manziel, hundley?), it will cost more thn a third. i think by the chart, even if bridgewater went 1.1, and ATL was around 1.4 (win at home against WAS sunday?), if they wanted to get clowney or matthews, it would cost a second and third (STL could have two 1sts, 2nds & 3rds
). i don't think that is going to happen, and i realize some teams tear up the chart (OAK did - you are right, if you want to move the pick, it is worth what you can get for it... but MIN didn't when they traded a 2, 3 & 4 for the low-first rights used on patterson)... but again, it will have some value...IF there are three of four possible top 10-15 QBs, and 4-5 teams looking in the first 10 picks, that could be a recipe where their value is driven up. even if you are right that bridgewater isn't all that, one or possibly two could emerge as the desired target. after HOU (who could take a QB), there are two teams in STL and ATL that aren't expected to take QBs... than a group of 3-4 straight expected to be in the market. right now, MIN is at 1.4 (right after STL and ATL). you don't have to be a mind reader to figure out what position MIN might be thinking about. teams behind THEM, may be thinking about a few things... do they jump in front of MIN (and the other top 5-10 teams in the market). if so, do you go through STL or ATL? if you have only one target, than the pick held by STL would be of greater interest... if a team liked either of two QBs available, than ATL would suffice.
Seemingly, if there is only one QB that separates himself in the process, and HOU takes clowney, that makes the pick even more valuable. than if multiple teams are interested, they know they have to jump over MIN and each other, which creates a bidding war. and they would need to get to the STL pick, not ATL, otherwise they risk getting scooped by another team that got to STL first... ATL pick wouldn't help.
with a few paramters, think of this process in terms of a lab chemistry experiment where you are trying to create ideal conditions for a chemical reaction...
1 - need more than zero top #1 overall QB prospects, but not too many where teams can wait.
2 - a group of 3-5 teams that might be gunning for the top few prospects if there is some separation during the evaluation process (subtracting hundley out could create additional demand).
3 - sort of a perfect storm situation where the right teams with the right needs and aligned interests are in the right place at the right time... STL might not have had the pick, but they do, so good timing... maybe the teams that need a QB could have been in the 20s, and STL didn't want to drop that far, but to still emerge with a top 5 and top 10, blue chip-type prospect - so that is fortuitous... if STL doesn't want to use the pick on a QB, that creates a condition where the pick can change hands.
so again, i don't see three 1sts if a team moves to 1.1 or 1.2... but more than a 3rd (2nd was another pick proferred earlier) if a team is trying to move up past MIN for instance (like CLE at around 1.8).
note that maybe MIN can play chicken. if they know STL and ATL aren't taking a QB, and maybe they are pretty sure ATL will use pick on clowney or matthews, than they can weigh a possible move with STL. if price seems reasonable, they might do it so another team doesn't snipe their target... and as far as reasonableness, it might be a better tradeoff for rams to get what they can get but still be as high as 1.4 to get matthews or watkins (as opposed to getting maybe two firsts from CLE, for arguments sake, but losing out on both prospects - though maybe they could get mike evans?)... if MIN thinks STL is asking too much, they may roll the dice that teams behind them come to the same conclusion... if STL asks too much, and prices themselves out of the trade market, than the QB will fall to MIN, and they win the game of chicken. but the teams BEHIND MIN, can't afford to play that game of chicken... because if they want a QB, and the one they want is expected to go to MIN, they have to go through STL or ATL to jump them (and again, ATL may just want to use the pick on clowney or matthews).
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Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
I'm assuming you mean the RG III deal and not the other deal I mentioned where the Browns had tried to trade for Bradford. I liked Sam better at that time but since that time he has continued to get injured so I'm leary of his prospects going forward.
The RG III deal went down too early for me to have a firm enough grip on what I felt about him so at the time I thought Washington jumped in too soon and paid too much.
I'm not down on RG III but others are changing their tune.
Doug Farrar has changed his evaluation of RG III.
SI_DougFarrar@SI_DougFarrar9 Dec
I could see RGIII having a Cam Newton career arc. Weird second year, new blood up top, he turns it around Year 3 by truly developing.
The new Browns FO is heavy into analytics, they are not going to over-pay to move up for any player. People are seriously overlooking the value that Hoyer and Jason Cambell give to the Browns where they are not forced to move-up for a QB unless they are absolutely sold on someone and I don't have any inside information but I do know that the evaluation process hasn't gotten anywhere close to making a decision let alone projecting Cleveland will fall in love and move-up for a QB that they simply have-to-have.
The biggest part of the evaluation process for franchise QBs is the one-on-one interview process which hasn't begun yet.
The only whispers I've heard is that Mett was a guy who fit the best with the offensive system and Cleveland coaching staff but he got injured.
Pure speculation on my part but I think that right now, Cleveland isn't sold on ANYONE let alone any specific QB and they honestly like Jason Cambell and love Brian Hoyer so they very-well could wait for a guy like Mettinburgher (sp?) to fall into their laps later in the draft. He's injured and won't be healthy enough at the Combine to participate so he'll fall. Any rookie would not be starting, it would be Hoyer or Cambell, likely Hoyer, and the rook would sit for at least a year so that might very-well be the plan right now.
Also for BikeSeatSniffer, sorry for the diversion from the topic, Here is something pertinent to the thread.
We were discussing a potential trade-up for a quarterback and that is why I contibuted the RG III Harvard Analysis story but more on-topic news...
Clowney's stock is slipping.
Russell Lande@RUSSLANDE21h
@caplannfl @ProFootballTalk - Don't bet on Clowney definitely still being #1 overall player. Some teams have him #2 or #3 among pass rushers
The RG III deal went down too early for me to have a firm enough grip on what I felt about him so at the time I thought Washington jumped in too soon and paid too much.
I'm not down on RG III but others are changing their tune.
Doug Farrar has changed his evaluation of RG III.
SI_DougFarrar@SI_DougFarrar9 Dec
I could see RGIII having a Cam Newton career arc. Weird second year, new blood up top, he turns it around Year 3 by truly developing.
The new Browns FO is heavy into analytics, they are not going to over-pay to move up for any player. People are seriously overlooking the value that Hoyer and Jason Cambell give to the Browns where they are not forced to move-up for a QB unless they are absolutely sold on someone and I don't have any inside information but I do know that the evaluation process hasn't gotten anywhere close to making a decision let alone projecting Cleveland will fall in love and move-up for a QB that they simply have-to-have.
The biggest part of the evaluation process for franchise QBs is the one-on-one interview process which hasn't begun yet.
The only whispers I've heard is that Mett was a guy who fit the best with the offensive system and Cleveland coaching staff but he got injured.
Pure speculation on my part but I think that right now, Cleveland isn't sold on ANYONE let alone any specific QB and they honestly like Jason Cambell and love Brian Hoyer so they very-well could wait for a guy like Mettinburgher (sp?) to fall into their laps later in the draft. He's injured and won't be healthy enough at the Combine to participate so he'll fall. Any rookie would not be starting, it would be Hoyer or Cambell, likely Hoyer, and the rook would sit for at least a year so that might very-well be the plan right now.
Also for BikeSeatSniffer, sorry for the diversion from the topic, Here is something pertinent to the thread.
We were discussing a potential trade-up for a quarterback and that is why I contibuted the RG III Harvard Analysis story but more on-topic news...
Clowney's stock is slipping.
Russell Lande@RUSSLANDE21h
@caplannfl @ProFootballTalk - Don't bet on Clowney definitely still being #1 overall player. Some teams have him #2 or #3 among pass rushers
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
How the heck can Bracie and Bob type so MUCH?
amnesiac
beer is good
they are the exceptions to my tldnr rule.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
"Not sure why you are so sore about the article, it looks solid and so do the values they came up with at that time."
Guess it comes off that way, but I'm not sore at all. I'm not a redskins fan by any stretch, but I do like their qb and think rg3's bad rep around here is overkill. Understand the article is old, well before his injury but also before he led the team to their best season in over a decade, as a rookie.
Guess it comes off that way, but I'm not sore at all. I'm not a redskins fan by any stretch, but I do like their qb and think rg3's bad rep around here is overkill. Understand the article is old, well before his injury but also before he led the team to their best season in over a decade, as a rookie.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
How the heck can Andy have 68,554 posts?
Maybe "he" is an artificial intelligence construct like Wintermute in Williams Gibson's seminal Neuromancer (created the cyberpunk genre).
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amnesiac
beer is good
off topic. but Gibson created damn near everything.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
* BTW, i tend to write about STL, feel free to weigh in with regional input, it could benefit the whole thread to get more accurate local insight into what might be happening, as the seasons nears its end, the final order crystallizes, and as the draft approaches...
Seems Like The Rams Have Had A Lot Of Small School Busts?
Around the league, some GMs got a rep for liking players from certain collegiate conferences.
Polian liked the Big 10 (Bob Sanders, Mike Doss, lot of other examples), lately CIN seems to like SEC a lot (admittedly a good conference to draw from if you had to focus on one). Partly this may be due to having stronger regional scouts in some sections of the country.
Mike Schad was a weird pick.
In the first two years, Fisher and Snead's first rounders have been Brockers (LSU), Austin (W.V.) and Ogletree (Georgia). So that is encouraging, especially the two SEC defenders. The deservedly controversial 2012 three second round pick draft can't be described as anything but disappointing... We don't know if Quick will pan out... Appalachian State is about as small school as you can get (it was a Jerome Simpson-type of pick, a head scratcher and in retrospect bizarre pick for a team in desperate need of weapons that could help right away, not in 3-4 years)... Jenkins ended up at a small school, but he was recruited by and played for Florida, so that is how I think of him... he has regressed, but how much of that can be chalked up to scheme and DB misuse is uncertain... but at least he is starting, surprise surprise, he went to Florida and not Appalachian State... Pead is from Cincinnati, i forget what conference they are in, i think of them as having some good basketball teams, and remember when former laker nick van exel went there (?)... but not a football powerhouse, NFL conduit/pipeline or RB factory. This year, third round SS Mcdonald was from big time program USC (though not what they were in the Carroll era), and Bailey was Austin's W.V. teammate.
Jimmie Johnson had either good scouts or a good eye or both for small school prospects (Erik Williams, Leon Lett, etc.)... Jerry Rice and TO helped make the 49ers dynasty what it was, and they were small school prospects... but for every example like that, it seems like there are a lot more for which the lower level of competition delays their career or worser. It does sound like some of the possible targets are from known and not obscure programs (Watkins, Matthews and Evans, Clinton-Dix).
* Amnesiac, my other favorite cyberpunk genre example is snow crash by neal stephenson... also liked by him diamond age (virtual reality punk?) and cryptonomicon (cryptopunk?)... off topic over.
Seems Like The Rams Have Had A Lot Of Small School Busts?
Around the league, some GMs got a rep for liking players from certain collegiate conferences.
Polian liked the Big 10 (Bob Sanders, Mike Doss, lot of other examples), lately CIN seems to like SEC a lot (admittedly a good conference to draw from if you had to focus on one). Partly this may be due to having stronger regional scouts in some sections of the country.
Mike Schad was a weird pick.
In the first two years, Fisher and Snead's first rounders have been Brockers (LSU), Austin (W.V.) and Ogletree (Georgia). So that is encouraging, especially the two SEC defenders. The deservedly controversial 2012 three second round pick draft can't be described as anything but disappointing... We don't know if Quick will pan out... Appalachian State is about as small school as you can get (it was a Jerome Simpson-type of pick, a head scratcher and in retrospect bizarre pick for a team in desperate need of weapons that could help right away, not in 3-4 years)... Jenkins ended up at a small school, but he was recruited by and played for Florida, so that is how I think of him... he has regressed, but how much of that can be chalked up to scheme and DB misuse is uncertain... but at least he is starting, surprise surprise, he went to Florida and not Appalachian State... Pead is from Cincinnati, i forget what conference they are in, i think of them as having some good basketball teams, and remember when former laker nick van exel went there (?)... but not a football powerhouse, NFL conduit/pipeline or RB factory. This year, third round SS Mcdonald was from big time program USC (though not what they were in the Carroll era), and Bailey was Austin's W.V. teammate.
Jimmie Johnson had either good scouts or a good eye or both for small school prospects (Erik Williams, Leon Lett, etc.)... Jerry Rice and TO helped make the 49ers dynasty what it was, and they were small school prospects... but for every example like that, it seems like there are a lot more for which the lower level of competition delays their career or worser. It does sound like some of the possible targets are from known and not obscure programs (Watkins, Matthews and Evans, Clinton-Dix).
* Amnesiac, my other favorite cyberpunk genre example is snow crash by neal stephenson... also liked by him diamond age (virtual reality punk?) and cryptonomicon (cryptopunk?)... off topic over.
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msommer
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
well written SI MMQB article from the clowney thread, courtesy of faust...
rotoworld excerpt...
The MMQB's Greg Bedard spoke with multiple NFL executives who said the heart of South Carolina junior DE Jadeveon Clowney's evaluation could be focused on effort, consistency and passion for the game. source article...
"Does [Clowney] have all the talent in the world? Yeah," one AFC GM said. "For people to get secure with him, its going to come in the interviews, the one-on-ones with teams... theyre going to see whats in his soul. Theyre going to see what makes him tick." Another executive added he thinks some of the criticism "can be overblown." It is noteworthy that Bedard called Clowney "extremely stiff (in) the hips, a straight-line player." We don't necessarily agree with this, but Bedard and NFL executives did bring up Michael Strahan among other names.
http://mmqb.si.com/2013/12/11/jadeveon-clowney-south-carolina-nfl-draft-2014/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
* article made a good point that SF RB Marcus Lattimore was his teammate, and he saw a lot of money go down the drain with the mcgahee-like knee injury.
rotoworld excerpt...
The MMQB's Greg Bedard spoke with multiple NFL executives who said the heart of South Carolina junior DE Jadeveon Clowney's evaluation could be focused on effort, consistency and passion for the game. source article...
"Does [Clowney] have all the talent in the world? Yeah," one AFC GM said. "For people to get secure with him, its going to come in the interviews, the one-on-ones with teams... theyre going to see whats in his soul. Theyre going to see what makes him tick." Another executive added he thinks some of the criticism "can be overblown." It is noteworthy that Bedard called Clowney "extremely stiff (in) the hips, a straight-line player." We don't necessarily agree with this, but Bedard and NFL executives did bring up Michael Strahan among other names.
http://mmqb.si.com/2013/12/11/jadeveon-clowney-south-carolina-nfl-draft-2014/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
* article made a good point that SF RB Marcus Lattimore was his teammate, and he saw a lot of money go down the drain with the mcgahee-like knee injury.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
preliminary to mocks, is to attempt projecting the players and positions that might be in the top 10 (little more than a dozen below)...
than we can start matching teams to players/positions... you have to have the puzzle pieces before you can start putting them together...
QB - bridgewater, carr, manziel (possibly hundley)
RB - N/A (seastrunk and gordon more likely late first or second round, increasingly commoditized position except for rare prospects)
WR - sammy watkins, possibly mike evans (i think marquis lee more likely in mid-first or later)
TE - N/A (there are some good ones, like eric ebron, but realize vernon davis was last in top 10 [[1.6?]], it is historically rare)
OT - matthews, lewan, kouandjio (not sure if any others would be in play this high?)
OG/C - N/A (no prospects like cooper or warmack - best might be richardson from baylor, has played some OT, OG probably his natural position as a pro, don't know if he is in warford's class, who went in 3rd but rams would have taken at 1.30 if ogletree had been gone [[i'm interested for STL]], not sure if he could go in last third of first round, or if second round more likley, i don't think he lasts until third)
DE - clowney, barr, tuitt (?)
DT - ? (don't know positional prospects well enough, possibly nix, hageman?)
LB - mack, mosley? (barr could be listed/deployed as LB instead of DE as above, shazier and van noy later?)
S - ? (clinton-dix best prospect, probably not top 10, like eric berry, may not be as good as vaccaro and reid, went mid-first 2013)
CB - ? (don't know position well enough, as with DT - my sense is likely 0 or 1 at most)
* http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php
NFL Draft Countdown 2014 mock by scott wright (from 10-26 so dated, but i like his work, and it may suggest ideas for positions like DT, for those that want to play at home )...
than we can start matching teams to players/positions... you have to have the puzzle pieces before you can start putting them together...
QB - bridgewater, carr, manziel (possibly hundley)
RB - N/A (seastrunk and gordon more likely late first or second round, increasingly commoditized position except for rare prospects)
WR - sammy watkins, possibly mike evans (i think marquis lee more likely in mid-first or later)
TE - N/A (there are some good ones, like eric ebron, but realize vernon davis was last in top 10 [[1.6?]], it is historically rare)
OT - matthews, lewan, kouandjio (not sure if any others would be in play this high?)
OG/C - N/A (no prospects like cooper or warmack - best might be richardson from baylor, has played some OT, OG probably his natural position as a pro, don't know if he is in warford's class, who went in 3rd but rams would have taken at 1.30 if ogletree had been gone [[i'm interested for STL]], not sure if he could go in last third of first round, or if second round more likley, i don't think he lasts until third)
DE - clowney, barr, tuitt (?)
DT - ? (don't know positional prospects well enough, possibly nix, hageman?)
LB - mack, mosley? (barr could be listed/deployed as LB instead of DE as above, shazier and van noy later?)
S - ? (clinton-dix best prospect, probably not top 10, like eric berry, may not be as good as vaccaro and reid, went mid-first 2013)
CB - ? (don't know position well enough, as with DT - my sense is likely 0 or 1 at most)
* http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-A.php
NFL Draft Countdown 2014 mock by scott wright (from 10-26 so dated, but i like his work, and it may suggest ideas for positions like DT, for those that want to play at home
)...
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
rob rang's 32 prospect big board (not a mock - but more puzzle pieces). clinton dix should go in the first, but it might be closer to 20 than 10-15? rang called clowney and julius peppers the two most gifted prospects he has graded in 13 years. BTW, if HOU takes bridgewater, and ATL came calling for clowney at 1.2, that is where STL GM snead came from (the rams swapped the 1.22 the falcons used on trufant for the 1.30 used for ogletree, as well as a third used on stedman bailey and one of the two sixths used to trade up for stacy in the fifth in the 2013 draft).
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/24374117/big-board-want-a-qb-then-youre-in-luck-with-this-loaded-class
Big Board: Want a QB? Then you're in luck with this loaded class
by Rob Rang | NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst
Dec. 13, 2013 3:55 AM ET
With the number of underclassmen declaring for the 2014 draft expected to challenge -- if not topple -- last year's record of 73 early entrants, the giving season might occur in early May rather than late December for NFL teams.
Scouts are especially excited about the quarterback class, which boasts one clear-cut first round talent in Fresno State senior Derek Carr and is expected to get a strong infusion with Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater, Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel, Central Florida's Blake Bortles and UCLA's Brett Hundley among the talented underclassmen considering making the jump.
The Big Board isn't a mock draft. There is no attention given to team needs or the projected selection order. It is simply a ranking of the 32 best prospects potentially eligible for the 2014 NFL draft.
1. DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina (6-6, 268, 4.65)*: There is no denying that by registering only three sacks (and zero forced fumbles) in the 2013 regular season, Clowney has failed to live up to expectations. He also enflamed concerns about his maturity with a Dec. 7 speeding ticket in which he was clocked at 110 mph. Clowney's red flags are real, but so is his talent. In 13 years of grading prospects for the NFL Draft, Clowney competes only with former No. 2 overall pick Julius Peppers (2002) as the most gifted I've ever seen.
2. QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville (6-3, 220, 4.65)*: In an era in which college quarterbacks' numbers are often inflated by short passes and relatively simplistic schemes, Bridgewater's sparkling production is due to Pro Bowl-caliber accuracy. His success (70.2 percent completion rate with 28 touchdowns against four interceptions) comes out of a pro-style offense that forces him to make tough throws. Bridgewater's slight frame and level of competition are concerns. Bridgewater's poise will be tested in the Florida Citrus Bowl on Dec. 28; he'll be facing his hometown Miami Hurricanes in the game most believe will be his last at the collegiate level.
3. OLB Anthony Barr, UCLA (6-4, 238, 4.73): A running back until last season, Barr has emerged as one of the elite prospects in the country and is my top-rated senior at any position. A powerful and fluid athlete at his best rushing off the edge, Barr was named the 2013 recipient of the LOTT Impact Award with 62 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 10 sacks and five forced fumbles during the regular season.
4. QB Derek Carr, Fresno State (6-3, 215, 4.78): Carr's staggering production (70.1 completion percentage, 48 TDs, seven INTs) is certainly inflated by head coach Tim DeRuyter's QB-friendly spread attack and legitimately talented receiving corps, but there is no denying his talent. His release and velocity are as impressive as any college quarterback in the country. Back in 2002, his older brother David sealed up the No. 1 overall pick with a dominant performance at the Senior Bowl. It isn't out of the question that Derek could match the feat 12 years later.
5. OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M (6-5, 305, 5.14: The son of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, Jake proves the cliché true -- the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. He has played well at left tackle this season after starring at right tackle during his first three years. Matthews is a terrific football player, demonstrating impressive technique, strength and consistency. He is not, however, an elite athlete and some view his future back on the right side in the NFL.
6. WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson (6-1, 200, 4.49)*: With 85 catches for 1,235 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013, Watkins erased any memories of his disappointing sophomore campaign. He is an explosive athlete with impressive body control and natural hands to pluck the ball. Unlike some of his teammates, Watkins played well against Clemson's top opponents this season, including Florida State and South Carolina. Watkins' matchup against Ohio State's Bradley Roby in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 3 could be the most tantalizing one-on-one matchup of the bowl season.
7. CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State (5-11, 197, 4.52): Quick feet, loose hips and a fluid turning motion make Dennard a classic cover corner capable of shutting down half the field. His ability in coverage played a huge role in the Spartans' run to the Big Ten Championship, as was recognized with Dennard winning the Thorpe Award as the nation's elite defensive back.
8. OT Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama (6-5, 312, 5.12)*: -- Nick Saban questioned draft analysts for pegging Kouandjio as a first-round talent before the season, but given the junior left tackle's exciting skill set, the projection has been an easy one. Athletic and aggressive, Kouandjio could overtake some of the other top tackles in this class should he elect to enter the draft a year early.
9. OT Cameron Erving, Florida State (6-5, 310, 5.26)*: Erving played in 13 games as a redshirt freshman defensive tackle, but looked like a natural when moved to left tackle a season ago, though he remains a bit inconsistent. Long, balanced and athletic, he's a hidden factor in the dynamic play of freshman quarterback Jameis Winston and could enjoy a "quiet" ride into the top 10 of the 2014 draft just as former Texas A&M left tackle Luke Joeckel did a year ago while blocking for Heisman winner Johnny Manziel.
10. OLB C.J. Mosley, Alabama (6-2, 232, 4.56): While a bit undersized, Mosley might be the best pound-for-pound player in the country. Athletic and instinctive, he is a true three-down linebacker capable of making plays against the run and pass. Mosley lacks the bulk scouts want in a pass rusher but his awareness in coverage is special.
11. OLB Khalil Mack, Buffalo (6-3, 248, 4.66): With a record-tying 75 career tackles for loss, Mack's statistics jump off the page. Against the most gifted opponents he faced this year (Ohio State, Connecticut), it was his game that jumped off the screen. His size, instincts and agility as an edge rusher make him equally intriguing to teams operating out of a 4-3 or 3-4 alignment.
12. OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M (6-5, 300, 5.15)*: Overshadowed by all of the talent on the Aggies' roster, Ogbuehi is an exciting prospect in his own right. A standout at right guard a year ago, Ogbuehi (pronounced ah-BOO-hee) took over for Jake Matthews at right tackle in 2013 and has excelled. Possessing long arms and light feet, Ogbuehi offers more upside than his more celebrated teammate, though he is not yet as polished.
13. WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M (6-5, 225, 4.58)*: Like his famous quarterback Johnny Manziel, Evans is only a redshirt sophomore, but he has a big decision to make after dominating the SEC most of the season. Deceptively fast and possessing great body control as well as timing, Evans is an exciting split end prospect who reminds scouts of Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Vincent Jackson. Of concern, however, is the fact that Evans struggled in his final two regular-season games, catching only eight passes for a combined 59 yards in losses to LSU and Missouri.
14. TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina (6-4, 245, 4.67)*: Ebron possesses a jaw-dropping combination of size and athleticism that has earned comparisons to 49ers star Vernon Davis. Like Davis, however, Ebron struggles with consistency, relying too much on his athleticism rather than dedicating himself to learning the finer techniques of the position. Ebron will forgo his senior season and enter the 2014 draft.
15. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon (5-10, 190, 4.52)*: Lost in the hype of Oregon's offense are a number of highly regarded defenders, including Ekpre-Olomu, who combines great instincts, agility and physicality to shut down his side of the field. Ekpre-Olomu's toughness on the perimeter played a significant role in Oregon's victory against Oregon State in the Civil War; he posted 12 tackles (all solos), deflected three passes and intercepted another while helping to limit Beavers star WR Brandin Cooks.
16. OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan (6-7, 310, 5.04): Possessing an impressive combination of size, strength and toughness, Lewan has earned comparisons to former Michigan standout Jake Long throughout his career with the Wolverines. He certainly looked the part against Ohio State, dominating the action up front.
17. DL Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame (6-5, 303, 4.89)*: Offseason sports hernia surgery may have played a role in Tuitt weighing 20 pounds more this season than a year ago, and early on the extra weight seemed to be slowing him. He played much better over the second half of the season, however, and his athleticism and frame project well to either scheme in the NFL.
18. DE Trent Murphy, Stanford (6-6, 261, 4.85): Used as a standup outside linebacker as well as a down defensive lineman for the Cardinal, Murphy is equally impactful in the passing game, running game and on special teams due to his instincts, physicality and awareness. His play and production (58 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 14 sacks) should have earned him the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year award that went to Arizona defensive lineman Will Sutton. Though he has starred in Stanford's 3-4 scheme, Murphy projects best as a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL.
19. TE Jace Amaro, Texas Tech (6-5, 260, 4.67)*: The NFL is looking for seam threats rather than extra blockers at tight end in today's game, and there hasn't been a more impressive prospect in the country in 2013 in this role than Amaro, who finished the regular season with 98 catches for 1,240 yards and seven touchdowns. Scouts are beginning to mention the name Jimmy Graham when discussing the Red Raiders junior. After dropping a few passes against Texas in his regular-season finale Nov. 30, Amaro will be tested against an aggressive Arizona State defense in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 30.
20. OT Greg Robinson, Auburn* (6-5, 320, 5.38): Redshirt offensive linemen rarely earn more than a whisper in scouting circles, but the buzz generating around the Tigers' star left tackle is venturing into deafening. Physical and tenacious, Robinson is a grizzly bear in the running game, mauling opponents with an exciting blend of size (6-5, 320 pounds), strength and athleticism. Auburn's reliance on the running game, however, has given Robinson few opportunities in pass protection, making him a bit of a boom-or-bust prospect at this early point.
21. WR Marqise Lee, Southern Cal (6-0, 195, 4.51)*: A nagging left knee injury has hampered Lee for much of the 2013 season, robbing the 2012 Biletnikof Award winner of his trademark elusiveness and acceleration. Finally healthy, he starred against Stanford on Nov. 16, helping guide the Trojans to an upset victory and seeming to solidify his stock -- only to register a relatively nondescript six grabs for 69 yards in a Nov. 30 loss to UCLA.
22. OG Cyril Richardson, Baylor (6-5, 335, 5.27): A dominating drive blocker who projects best at guard but spent the entire 2011 season protecting Robert Griffin III at left tackle, Richardson is massive, powerful and shockingly athletic. Richardson was recognized with the Jim Parker Award as the nation's top blocker and headlines a strong class of interior linemen.
23. OC Travis Swanson, Arkansas (6-4, 318, 5.26): If Richardson is the elite interior lineman of the 2014 senior class, Swanson ranks as a close second. Athletic, powerful and versatile (some view him as a potential guard convert), Swanson will continue former Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema's tradition of churning out quality NFL prospects along the offensive line.
24. OLB Ryan Shazier, Ohio State (6-2, 226, 4.58)*: Shazier might be 10-15 pounds lighter than scouts would prefer, but his instincts, speed and bone-jarring hits make him a fearful defender that offenses must account for on every snap. No one played better for the Buckeyes against Michigan State in the Big Ten title game than Shazier, who recorded 12 tackles, two pass breakups and a blocked punt against the Spartans.
25. QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M (5-11, 210, 4.45)*: Manziel's vision, elusiveness and accuracy while on the move make him a mesmerizing prospect, but red flags were raised with mediocre performances against LSU and Missouri to end the regular season. Bottled in the pocket by both, Manziel was unable to throw his receivers open and he struggled. The NFL rule books have never been more accommodating to dual-threat passers, but consistent accuracy from the pocket remains the most critical element to quarterback play at the next level.
26. CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State (6-0, 200, 4.52): In terms of size, agility and speed, no cornerback offers a more intriguing skill-set than the Cowboys' star. Gilbert, a Thorpe Award finalist, led the Big 12 with six interceptions this season and has returned six kickoffs for touchdowns during his time in Stillwater.
27. QB Blake Bortles, Central Florida* (6-3, 230, 4.78): A prototypically built pocket passer with good awareness and anticipation, Bortles looks the part of an NFL starting quarterback. Should he star in UCF's Fiesta Bowl showdown with the explosive Baylor Bears, the junior could have a tough time ignoring the NFL buzz his play is building.
28. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State* (5-10, 186, 4.52): Beavers coach Mike Riley has made a career out of finding undersized pass-catchers to star in his offense, but Cooks is a different level of athlete than Sammie Stroughter, Markus Wheaton and the Rodgers brothers (James and Jacquizz). Boasting a combination of elusiveness, acceleration and toughness that is earning comparisons to Percy Harvin, the Biletnikof Award finalist rewrote school and conference record books with 120 catches for 1,670 yards and 15 touchdowns in the regular season.
29. DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota (6-6, 311, 4.95): Blessed with an extraordinary combination of size and athleticism, Hageman could join Michael Brockers and Dontari Poe as recent big defensive tackles whose real rise up draft boards doesn't begin until the Scouting Combine. Hageman has looked unblockable at times, but he struggles with consistency.
30. CB Jason Verrett, TCU (5-10, 182, 4.49): Verrett lacks the size so en vogue in today's NFL, but agility and ball skills never go out of style for cornerbacks. Verrett led the Big 12 with 22 passes defended and six interceptions in 2012. Through the end of the 2013 regular season, he led again in pass deflections (16) while recording two pass thefts. While light, Verrett is scrappy and tenacious, making him an ideal nickel corner with the tackling ability to threaten on an occasional blitz.
31. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington* (6-6, 276, 4.75): The third-year junior didn't enjoy the flashy season many projected, but that was largely due to the Huskies utilizing Seferian-Jenkins more as a blocker and decoy rather than as the focal point of their offense. He might not possess the straight-line speed of the two tight ends ranked higher on this list (UNC's Ebron, Texas Tech's Amaro), but the NFL will grade him highly for the same reason the Mackey Award Committee did -- he's the best all-around tight end in the country.
32. OG David Yankey, Stanford* (6-5, 314, 5.08): Another impressive performance against two-time defending Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Will Sutton has Yankey's stock rising. Athletic and powerful, Yankey is earning similar grades from some clubs as his former teammate, David DeCastro, the No. 24 overall selection of the 2012 draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Just missed the cut:
DT Will Sutton, Arizona State
OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson*
CB Bradley Roby, Ohio State*
RB Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona*
ILB Shayne Skov, Stanford
WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt
QB Brett Hundley, UCLA*
WR Allen Robinson, Penn State*
FS Hasean Clinton-Dix, Alabama*
OT La'el Collins, LSU*
OG Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA*
DE/OLB Trevor Reilly, Utah
DT Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh
DT Ego Ferguson, LSU*
OLB Kyle Van Noy, BYU
Rob Rang (@RobRang) is a senior analyst for NFLDraftScout.com.
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/24374117/big-board-want-a-qb-then-youre-in-luck-with-this-loaded-class
Big Board: Want a QB? Then you're in luck with this loaded class
by Rob Rang | NFLDraftScout.com Senior Analyst
Dec. 13, 2013 3:55 AM ET
With the number of underclassmen declaring for the 2014 draft expected to challenge -- if not topple -- last year's record of 73 early entrants, the giving season might occur in early May rather than late December for NFL teams.
Scouts are especially excited about the quarterback class, which boasts one clear-cut first round talent in Fresno State senior Derek Carr and is expected to get a strong infusion with Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater, Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel, Central Florida's Blake Bortles and UCLA's Brett Hundley among the talented underclassmen considering making the jump.
The Big Board isn't a mock draft. There is no attention given to team needs or the projected selection order. It is simply a ranking of the 32 best prospects potentially eligible for the 2014 NFL draft.
1. DE Jadeveon Clowney, South Carolina (6-6, 268, 4.65)*: There is no denying that by registering only three sacks (and zero forced fumbles) in the 2013 regular season, Clowney has failed to live up to expectations. He also enflamed concerns about his maturity with a Dec. 7 speeding ticket in which he was clocked at 110 mph. Clowney's red flags are real, but so is his talent. In 13 years of grading prospects for the NFL Draft, Clowney competes only with former No. 2 overall pick Julius Peppers (2002) as the most gifted I've ever seen.
2. QB Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville (6-3, 220, 4.65)*: In an era in which college quarterbacks' numbers are often inflated by short passes and relatively simplistic schemes, Bridgewater's sparkling production is due to Pro Bowl-caliber accuracy. His success (70.2 percent completion rate with 28 touchdowns against four interceptions) comes out of a pro-style offense that forces him to make tough throws. Bridgewater's slight frame and level of competition are concerns. Bridgewater's poise will be tested in the Florida Citrus Bowl on Dec. 28; he'll be facing his hometown Miami Hurricanes in the game most believe will be his last at the collegiate level.
3. OLB Anthony Barr, UCLA (6-4, 238, 4.73): A running back until last season, Barr has emerged as one of the elite prospects in the country and is my top-rated senior at any position. A powerful and fluid athlete at his best rushing off the edge, Barr was named the 2013 recipient of the LOTT Impact Award with 62 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, 10 sacks and five forced fumbles during the regular season.
4. QB Derek Carr, Fresno State (6-3, 215, 4.78): Carr's staggering production (70.1 completion percentage, 48 TDs, seven INTs) is certainly inflated by head coach Tim DeRuyter's QB-friendly spread attack and legitimately talented receiving corps, but there is no denying his talent. His release and velocity are as impressive as any college quarterback in the country. Back in 2002, his older brother David sealed up the No. 1 overall pick with a dominant performance at the Senior Bowl. It isn't out of the question that Derek could match the feat 12 years later.
5. OT Jake Matthews, Texas A&M (6-5, 305, 5.14: The son of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, Jake proves the cliché true -- the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. He has played well at left tackle this season after starring at right tackle during his first three years. Matthews is a terrific football player, demonstrating impressive technique, strength and consistency. He is not, however, an elite athlete and some view his future back on the right side in the NFL.
6. WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson (6-1, 200, 4.49)*: With 85 catches for 1,235 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2013, Watkins erased any memories of his disappointing sophomore campaign. He is an explosive athlete with impressive body control and natural hands to pluck the ball. Unlike some of his teammates, Watkins played well against Clemson's top opponents this season, including Florida State and South Carolina. Watkins' matchup against Ohio State's Bradley Roby in the Orange Bowl on Jan. 3 could be the most tantalizing one-on-one matchup of the bowl season.
7. CB Darqueze Dennard, Michigan State (5-11, 197, 4.52): Quick feet, loose hips and a fluid turning motion make Dennard a classic cover corner capable of shutting down half the field. His ability in coverage played a huge role in the Spartans' run to the Big Ten Championship, as was recognized with Dennard winning the Thorpe Award as the nation's elite defensive back.
8. OT Cyrus Kouandjio, Alabama (6-5, 312, 5.12)*: -- Nick Saban questioned draft analysts for pegging Kouandjio as a first-round talent before the season, but given the junior left tackle's exciting skill set, the projection has been an easy one. Athletic and aggressive, Kouandjio could overtake some of the other top tackles in this class should he elect to enter the draft a year early.
9. OT Cameron Erving, Florida State (6-5, 310, 5.26)*: Erving played in 13 games as a redshirt freshman defensive tackle, but looked like a natural when moved to left tackle a season ago, though he remains a bit inconsistent. Long, balanced and athletic, he's a hidden factor in the dynamic play of freshman quarterback Jameis Winston and could enjoy a "quiet" ride into the top 10 of the 2014 draft just as former Texas A&M left tackle Luke Joeckel did a year ago while blocking for Heisman winner Johnny Manziel.
10. OLB C.J. Mosley, Alabama (6-2, 232, 4.56): While a bit undersized, Mosley might be the best pound-for-pound player in the country. Athletic and instinctive, he is a true three-down linebacker capable of making plays against the run and pass. Mosley lacks the bulk scouts want in a pass rusher but his awareness in coverage is special.
11. OLB Khalil Mack, Buffalo (6-3, 248, 4.66): With a record-tying 75 career tackles for loss, Mack's statistics jump off the page. Against the most gifted opponents he faced this year (Ohio State, Connecticut), it was his game that jumped off the screen. His size, instincts and agility as an edge rusher make him equally intriguing to teams operating out of a 4-3 or 3-4 alignment.
12. OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M (6-5, 300, 5.15)*: Overshadowed by all of the talent on the Aggies' roster, Ogbuehi is an exciting prospect in his own right. A standout at right guard a year ago, Ogbuehi (pronounced ah-BOO-hee) took over for Jake Matthews at right tackle in 2013 and has excelled. Possessing long arms and light feet, Ogbuehi offers more upside than his more celebrated teammate, though he is not yet as polished.
13. WR Mike Evans, Texas A&M (6-5, 225, 4.58)*: Like his famous quarterback Johnny Manziel, Evans is only a redshirt sophomore, but he has a big decision to make after dominating the SEC most of the season. Deceptively fast and possessing great body control as well as timing, Evans is an exciting split end prospect who reminds scouts of Tampa Bay Buccaneers star Vincent Jackson. Of concern, however, is the fact that Evans struggled in his final two regular-season games, catching only eight passes for a combined 59 yards in losses to LSU and Missouri.
14. TE Eric Ebron, North Carolina (6-4, 245, 4.67)*: Ebron possesses a jaw-dropping combination of size and athleticism that has earned comparisons to 49ers star Vernon Davis. Like Davis, however, Ebron struggles with consistency, relying too much on his athleticism rather than dedicating himself to learning the finer techniques of the position. Ebron will forgo his senior season and enter the 2014 draft.
15. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, Oregon (5-10, 190, 4.52)*: Lost in the hype of Oregon's offense are a number of highly regarded defenders, including Ekpre-Olomu, who combines great instincts, agility and physicality to shut down his side of the field. Ekpre-Olomu's toughness on the perimeter played a significant role in Oregon's victory against Oregon State in the Civil War; he posted 12 tackles (all solos), deflected three passes and intercepted another while helping to limit Beavers star WR Brandin Cooks.
16. OT Taylor Lewan, Michigan (6-7, 310, 5.04): Possessing an impressive combination of size, strength and toughness, Lewan has earned comparisons to former Michigan standout Jake Long throughout his career with the Wolverines. He certainly looked the part against Ohio State, dominating the action up front.
17. DL Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame (6-5, 303, 4.89)*: Offseason sports hernia surgery may have played a role in Tuitt weighing 20 pounds more this season than a year ago, and early on the extra weight seemed to be slowing him. He played much better over the second half of the season, however, and his athleticism and frame project well to either scheme in the NFL.
18. DE Trent Murphy, Stanford (6-6, 261, 4.85): Used as a standup outside linebacker as well as a down defensive lineman for the Cardinal, Murphy is equally impactful in the passing game, running game and on special teams due to his instincts, physicality and awareness. His play and production (58 tackles, 21.5 tackles for loss, 14 sacks) should have earned him the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year award that went to Arizona defensive lineman Will Sutton. Though he has starred in Stanford's 3-4 scheme, Murphy projects best as a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL.
19. TE Jace Amaro, Texas Tech (6-5, 260, 4.67)*: The NFL is looking for seam threats rather than extra blockers at tight end in today's game, and there hasn't been a more impressive prospect in the country in 2013 in this role than Amaro, who finished the regular season with 98 catches for 1,240 yards and seven touchdowns. Scouts are beginning to mention the name Jimmy Graham when discussing the Red Raiders junior. After dropping a few passes against Texas in his regular-season finale Nov. 30, Amaro will be tested against an aggressive Arizona State defense in the Holiday Bowl on Dec. 30.
20. OT Greg Robinson, Auburn* (6-5, 320, 5.38): Redshirt offensive linemen rarely earn more than a whisper in scouting circles, but the buzz generating around the Tigers' star left tackle is venturing into deafening. Physical and tenacious, Robinson is a grizzly bear in the running game, mauling opponents with an exciting blend of size (6-5, 320 pounds), strength and athleticism. Auburn's reliance on the running game, however, has given Robinson few opportunities in pass protection, making him a bit of a boom-or-bust prospect at this early point.
21. WR Marqise Lee, Southern Cal (6-0, 195, 4.51)*: A nagging left knee injury has hampered Lee for much of the 2013 season, robbing the 2012 Biletnikof Award winner of his trademark elusiveness and acceleration. Finally healthy, he starred against Stanford on Nov. 16, helping guide the Trojans to an upset victory and seeming to solidify his stock -- only to register a relatively nondescript six grabs for 69 yards in a Nov. 30 loss to UCLA.
22. OG Cyril Richardson, Baylor (6-5, 335, 5.27): A dominating drive blocker who projects best at guard but spent the entire 2011 season protecting Robert Griffin III at left tackle, Richardson is massive, powerful and shockingly athletic. Richardson was recognized with the Jim Parker Award as the nation's top blocker and headlines a strong class of interior linemen.
23. OC Travis Swanson, Arkansas (6-4, 318, 5.26): If Richardson is the elite interior lineman of the 2014 senior class, Swanson ranks as a close second. Athletic, powerful and versatile (some view him as a potential guard convert), Swanson will continue former Wisconsin head coach Bret Bielema's tradition of churning out quality NFL prospects along the offensive line.
24. OLB Ryan Shazier, Ohio State (6-2, 226, 4.58)*: Shazier might be 10-15 pounds lighter than scouts would prefer, but his instincts, speed and bone-jarring hits make him a fearful defender that offenses must account for on every snap. No one played better for the Buckeyes against Michigan State in the Big Ten title game than Shazier, who recorded 12 tackles, two pass breakups and a blocked punt against the Spartans.
25. QB Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M (5-11, 210, 4.45)*: Manziel's vision, elusiveness and accuracy while on the move make him a mesmerizing prospect, but red flags were raised with mediocre performances against LSU and Missouri to end the regular season. Bottled in the pocket by both, Manziel was unable to throw his receivers open and he struggled. The NFL rule books have never been more accommodating to dual-threat passers, but consistent accuracy from the pocket remains the most critical element to quarterback play at the next level.
26. CB Justin Gilbert, Oklahoma State (6-0, 200, 4.52): In terms of size, agility and speed, no cornerback offers a more intriguing skill-set than the Cowboys' star. Gilbert, a Thorpe Award finalist, led the Big 12 with six interceptions this season and has returned six kickoffs for touchdowns during his time in Stillwater.
27. QB Blake Bortles, Central Florida* (6-3, 230, 4.78): A prototypically built pocket passer with good awareness and anticipation, Bortles looks the part of an NFL starting quarterback. Should he star in UCF's Fiesta Bowl showdown with the explosive Baylor Bears, the junior could have a tough time ignoring the NFL buzz his play is building.
28. WR Brandin Cooks, Oregon State* (5-10, 186, 4.52): Beavers coach Mike Riley has made a career out of finding undersized pass-catchers to star in his offense, but Cooks is a different level of athlete than Sammie Stroughter, Markus Wheaton and the Rodgers brothers (James and Jacquizz). Boasting a combination of elusiveness, acceleration and toughness that is earning comparisons to Percy Harvin, the Biletnikof Award finalist rewrote school and conference record books with 120 catches for 1,670 yards and 15 touchdowns in the regular season.
29. DT Ra'Shede Hageman, Minnesota (6-6, 311, 4.95): Blessed with an extraordinary combination of size and athleticism, Hageman could join Michael Brockers and Dontari Poe as recent big defensive tackles whose real rise up draft boards doesn't begin until the Scouting Combine. Hageman has looked unblockable at times, but he struggles with consistency.
30. CB Jason Verrett, TCU (5-10, 182, 4.49): Verrett lacks the size so en vogue in today's NFL, but agility and ball skills never go out of style for cornerbacks. Verrett led the Big 12 with 22 passes defended and six interceptions in 2012. Through the end of the 2013 regular season, he led again in pass deflections (16) while recording two pass thefts. While light, Verrett is scrappy and tenacious, making him an ideal nickel corner with the tackling ability to threaten on an occasional blitz.
31. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington* (6-6, 276, 4.75): The third-year junior didn't enjoy the flashy season many projected, but that was largely due to the Huskies utilizing Seferian-Jenkins more as a blocker and decoy rather than as the focal point of their offense. He might not possess the straight-line speed of the two tight ends ranked higher on this list (UNC's Ebron, Texas Tech's Amaro), but the NFL will grade him highly for the same reason the Mackey Award Committee did -- he's the best all-around tight end in the country.
32. OG David Yankey, Stanford* (6-5, 314, 5.08): Another impressive performance against two-time defending Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Will Sutton has Yankey's stock rising. Athletic and powerful, Yankey is earning similar grades from some clubs as his former teammate, David DeCastro, the No. 24 overall selection of the 2012 draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Just missed the cut:
DT Will Sutton, Arizona State
OLB Vic Beasley, Clemson*
CB Bradley Roby, Ohio State*
RB Ka'Deem Carey, Arizona*
ILB Shayne Skov, Stanford
WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt
QB Brett Hundley, UCLA*
WR Allen Robinson, Penn State*
FS Hasean Clinton-Dix, Alabama*
OT La'el Collins, LSU*
OG Xavier Su'a-Filo, UCLA*
DE/OLB Trevor Reilly, Utah
DT Aaron Donald, Pittsburgh
DT Ego Ferguson, LSU*
OLB Kyle Van Noy, BYU
Rob Rang (@RobRang) is a senior analyst for NFLDraftScout.com.
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