Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Crabtree on pace for 80 Catches / 1,000 Yards. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
solorca
Footballguy
I like Crabtree in dynasty and redraft. For some reason, people seem to dislike him, and the price is always much cheaper than it should be.
Last week, I got him for Cobb in a redraft (prior to the news of Jennings, when it became a little closer in value). In dynasty, I have been able to get him for as cheap as a 2nd rounder.
Last week, I got him for Cobb in a redraft (prior to the news of Jennings, when it became a little closer in value). In dynasty, I have been able to get him for as cheap as a 2nd rounder.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
As long as you are paying with the understanding that 80/1,000/6 is very likely his ceiling. He is not a playmaker and his value comes from his targets. He plays in an offense that allows him to run safe routes, and make safe catches, in single coverage - they don't ask him to be a playmaker.
Eventually SF will find an option(s) more worthy of Crabtree's high number of targets(27%)and he has next to no value as a 3rd option on his current team.
Eventually SF will find an option(s) more worthy of Crabtree's high number of targets(27%)and he has next to no value as a 3rd option on his current team.
Last edited by a moderator:
DevilintheDetail
Footballguy
I think you've got his ceiling correct. But they aren't going to replace Crabtree in the offense. He does exactly what the team wants and is very efficient. He's perfect for their offense.
I also think he's wildly undervalued. I got him for Jerome Simpson in one league (before Simpson's injury news). Sure he doesn't have much upside, but he's a great WR3 who will give you steady production through the byes.I think most people either want a stud, or a possible lottery ticket, so solid but unspectacular guys like Crabtree get undervalued. People all want to find the next Jordy Nelson, and are willing to trade solid boring guys away in hopes of finding them.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't know that they replace him, but that 27% target rate is not a safe bet, long term, in my opinion. If it were to drop by 5%, to a reasonable 22% (more than Andre Johnson, just less than Roddy), his production would drop by roughly 20%. He is getting massive amounts of targets, catching them at a 70% rate, and is still not giving us WR2 production. Again, buy him if you need a safe bye week filler. But don't buy him thinking he will come close to his once prospect potential.
Craig_MiamiFL
Footballguy
the new jerricho Cotchery
EBF
Footballguy
I wouldn't call 38 targets a massive number. There are currently 22 receivers with more than that, and several of those guys have already had a bye week and/or have missed time with injuries.Crab is currently ranked as the #23 WR in my PPR league, so he's producing numbers right on par with what you would expect given his targets. And you actually pointed out exactly why he might be undervalued. Although he's not an explosive player, he's a very good possession WR. The 70% conversion rate has to be one of the best in the league among receivers with 30+ targets. In 12 team leagues I think he's a good WR3 with middle of the road WR2 upside. His conversion rate might drop in a more pass-heavy system, but it would be offset by a rise in targets. Basically, he's a pretty safe player with a little bit of upside.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I wouldn't call 38 targets a massive number. There are currently 22 receivers with more than that, and several of those guys have already had a bye week and/or have missed time with injuries.Crab is currently ranked as the #23 WR in my PPR league, so he's producing numbers right on par with what you would expect given his targets. And you actually pointed out exactly why he might be undervalued. Although he's not an explosive player, he's a very good possession WR. The 70% conversion rate has to be one of the best in the league among receivers with 30+ targets. In 12 team leagues I think he's a good WR3 with middle of the road WR2 upside. His conversion rate might drop in a more pass-heavy system, but it would be offset by a rise in targets. Basically, he's a pretty safe player with a little bit of upside.His % of team targets is top 15. Massive considering how many times the 49ers pass the ball. The 70% catch rate is a product of the targets he is getting, and not likely to stay that high, in my opinion. That is Wes Welker high, and a good jump from where he was a year ago, and his career average. His YPC, % of deep routes, and YPT suggest he is used very conservatively for a WR that lines up on the outside, and that does fit his game. I was not aware that he was currently a WR2 in PPR league - thanks for that. But again, if you understand that Crabtree is having the best year of his career, the offense fits him, and he is getting almost 1/3 of all targets, and still barely getting WR2 numbers in PPR leagues, you realize is ceiling is capped. Buy him for what he is, don't pay for any potential above what he has done this season.
EBF
Footballguy
Except it's really not being capped. 38 targets is not that many, regardless of what % of the team's attempts it constitutes.
MCguidance
Footballguy
Every bit as good I thought he would be when I drifted him. I'm just hopeful it continues.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Except it's really not being capped. 38 targets is not that many, regardless of what % of the team's attempts it constitutes.Unless he's Wes Welker, his catch rate is not holding up with much increase in targets. Not to mention, the SF offense isn't build to be efficient on high volume attempts. Perfect storm right now.What do you suggest his upside is?
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
He is a bit like Hines Ward. Ward's best season was 112 catches for 1329 yards and 12 TDs. I would say that's his ceiling depending on system and usage. A few factors have prevented him from reaching that level. Mainly volume of targets, quality of targets, and injuries.
Over his last 16 games (including playoffs), he's still had 79 catches for 950 yards. Somewhere in Cotchery/Ward territory. The numbers get even better if you take out his dud playoff games and only look at the regular season. He's probably been a 1000+ yard guy over his past 16 regular season games, and that's on a conservative offense with Alex Smith as his QB.
Over his last 16 games (including playoffs), he's still had 79 catches for 950 yards. Somewhere in Cotchery/Ward territory. The numbers get even better if you take out his dud playoff games and only look at the regular season. He's probably been a 1000+ yard guy over his past 16 regular season games, and that's on a conservative offense with Alex Smith as his QB.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
His % of team targets is top 15. Massive considering how many times the 49ers pass the ball. The 70% catch rate is a product of the targets he is getting, and not likely to stay that high, in my opinion. That is Wes Welker high, and a good jump from where he was a year ago, and his career average. His YPC, % of deep routes, and YPT suggest he is used very conservatively for a WR that lines up on the outside, and that does fit his game. I was not aware that he was currently a WR2 in PPR league - thanks for that. But again, if you understand that Crabtree is having the best year of his career, the offense fits him, and he is getting almost 1/3 of all targets, and still barely getting WR2 numbers in PPR leagues, you realize is ceiling is capped. Buy him for what he is, don't pay for any potential above what he has done this season.I am too lazy to do the math with FF so I find this to be a great posting. I agree that this is Crabtree upside and not to pay more than current production indicates. These type of posts just fascinate me as I am too busy working/changing diapers to do the real analysis to be good at this hobby. Love your stuff CC. Someone was so sick of his lack of production at our rookie draft (this year) that they traded him for a late second rounder that ended up being Sanu. Possible oops.
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Defenses would adjust their coverages long before Crabtree got 110/1325/12. He's simply not talented enough to produce those numbers. The conservative offense he in helps him - it provides him with the safe, single coverage he needs to produce. He is not talented enough to consistently deal with shifted, double coverage, the way, say, Brandon Marahall is. If teams ever decided that Crabtree needed to be stopped for them to win, he would be stopped. Hell, does he have 12 career TDs?
EBF
Footballguy
If you say so. Some pretty pedestrian WRs have had monster seasons in the past. Opportunity is a big part of the equation and it's something that Crabtree has lacked. He has never played on a pass-first offense, with a great QB, or been given WR1 targets. Changing any of those variables would bump up his numbers. He is never going to be TO or Moss, but he could be a Colston or Ward if given the opportunity. I agree that he's not talented enough to command 140+ targets annually, but at any given time there are only 5-10 guys in the league who are. Crabtree fits pretty snugly into the next tier of WRs. Not quite good enough to be a Pro Bowler, but good enough to hold down a starting job and remain productive. He was a fringe WR1 in FF leagues down the stretch last year and has been a low-end WR2 so far this season. I think he's an ideal FF WR3 with potential to threaten the top 10 in years when everything clicks for him. As far as his talent level is concerned...- Dominant college player.- Top 10 pick.- Productive when healthy. - Converts a high percentage of his targets into catches. The guy is not some scrub off the street. He's a very good receiver. The 49ers brought in lots of options this offseason and Crabtree staved them all off to keep the WR1 role. The only thing he really lacks is explosive big play skills. Bear in mind that he's still young, has always played on conservative offenses, and has been dealing with injury problems since his first year in the league. I think there's a pretty good chance that we haven't seen his best football yet. Allegedly this is the first year where he's been completely healthy from day one, so I guess it shouldn't be a big surprise that he's on pace for his best statistical season.
Defenses would adjust their coverages long before Crabtree got 110/1325/12. He's simply not talented enough to produce those numbers. The conservative offense he in helps him - it provides him with the safe, single coverage he needs to produce. He is not talented enough to consistently deal with shifted, double coverage, the way, say, Brandon Marahall is. If teams ever decided that Crabtree needed to be stopped for them to win, he would be stopped. Hell, does he have 12 career TDs?I like Crabtree, but I also would be surprised to see numbers that big.I think 1100 yards is possible. He's not to the point where he can dominate a game. He still needs to take another step forward in his development before hes ready for those numbers.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I wish I could take credit, but I am lazy too. I get most of my advanced stats from advancednflstats.com. Pro Football Outsiders has some good stuff too.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If you say so. Some pretty pedestrian WRs have had monster seasons in the past. Opportunity is a big part of the equation and it's something that Crabtree has lacked. He has never played on a pass-first offense, with a great QB, or been given WR1 targets. Changing any of those variables would bump up his numbers. He is never going to be TO or Moss, but he could be a Colston or Ward if given the opportunity. I agree that he's not talented enough to command 140+ targets annually, but at any given time there are only 5-10 guys in the league who are. Crabtree fits pretty snugly into the next tier of WRs. Not quite good enough to be a Pro Bowler, but good enough to hold down a starting job and remain productive. He was a fringe WR1 in FF leagues down the stretch last year and has been a low-end WR2 so far this season. I think he's an ideal FF WR3 with potential to threaten the top 10 in years when everything clicks for him. As far as his talent level is concerned...- Dominant college player.- Top 10 pick.- Productive when healthy. - Converts a high percentage of his targets into catches. The guy is not some scrub off the street. He's a very good receiver. The 49ers brought in lots of options this offseason and Crabtree staved them all off to keep the WR1 role. The only thing he really lacks is explosive big play skills. Bear in mind that he's still young, has always played on conservative offenses, and has been dealing with injury problems since his first year in the league. I think there's a pretty good chance that we haven't seen his best football yet. Allegedly this is the first year where he's been completely healthy from day one, so I guess it shouldn't be a big surprise that he's on pace for his best statistical season.We seem to agree on his current worth. In PPR formats, you could do worse than to have Crabtree as a WR2/3. In non-PPR formats, not so much; I would rather take a flier or gamble. But I don't see Colston/Ward production. He is not as talented as Ward - nowhere near the playmaker; and he is not as physically imposing as Colston. Granted, I am sure Brees could get anyone very solid fantasy numbers. In my opinion, suggesting that Crabtree's ceiling is Ward's best year, is like suggesting Bess' is Welker's best year.
Unless he's Wes Welker, his catch rate is not holding up with much increase in targets. Not to mention, the SF offense isn't build to be efficient on high volume attempts. Perfect storm right now.What do you suggest his upside is?'Concept Coop said:
What are you basing this on? You appear to just hate the guy. The Crabman was never hyped to be some sort of explosive 17+ ypc guy. He's got decent speed and plus hands. He was always going to be a possession receiver. I'd say he is living up to that billing. If he were to go to a more prolific offense with a better QB then he could easily put up those Hines Ward numbers, but with 38 targets he's going to be limited. This is far from a perfect storm as you say.
This will be an interesting topic to revisit in a couple years, whether that be due to free agency or a QB change in SF. In the meantime, he'll be limited by his situation. That's not to say it couldn't get worse. He is getting a large piece of a small pie, so if that were to shrink then of course his value would decrease. But to act like his talent is what is holding him back is short sighted. Calling the SF offense a perfect storm for any WR is just silly. It is more like WR purgatory.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I have no reason to hate the guy at all.As for his catch rate - it is well above his career average, and in elite Wes Welker territory. The more targets you get, the lower your catch rate typically is. Unless you think Crabtree is on par with Roddy White, Wes Welker or Larry Fitzgerald, it is a stretch to suggest he maintain a 70% catch rate, and be top 10 in targets. The more targets you get, the more attention you get from opposing defenses. The more attention, the more difficult catch each target is on average. The more difficult, the fewer you catch. This trend is not my opinion - it is very clearly supported by stat documentation. Take a look yourself.Michael Crabtree is not very productive, per target. Even in catching 70%, his yards per target, and targets per score are all very low. He is not a playmaker, and stats clearly suggestsuch. That is the major reason he is benefiting from the SF offense: he would not be a WR1 many places, and he would not handle double coverage well. The SF offense is based on the run first, which dictates that defenses play accordingly. On top of that, Crabtree is not the biggest threat on his team, Davis is. So he gets the defenses first coverage changes. This means Crabtree runs safe routes, with single coverage, often. That is why his catch total is high, yet, he is not doing much, beyond making the initial catch.And if his talent isn't holding him back, what is? Why isn't he scoring TDs, even though Smith is throwing them? Why is his YPC so low, despite single coverage and effective play-action?
Last edited by a moderator:
Why do you think 14th (of 32 teams) is high. It seems extremely average. Why does it matter how many times SF throws the ball? Chicago throws only 3 more times a game and Marshall is on top with 35%. StL throws 1 more time per game and Amendola is 4th. TB is 2 more per game and VJax is 6th. Buffalo, 2 more times and Johnson is 8th. It's a percentage.'Concept Coop said:
The 70% rate makes perfect sense when he is running short routes. Wes Welker is high because he runs short routes (similar deep route numbers to Crabtree). Percy Harvin is at almost 80% because he runs even less deep routes than bothe Crabtree and Welker. There is probably a pretty high correlation between running fewer deeproutes and catch percentage. There isn't any reason for that to change as long as he runs the same kind of routes.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Why do you think 14th (of 32 teams) is high. It seems extremely average. Why does it matter how many times SF throws the ball? Chicago throws only 3 more times a game and Marshall is on top with 35%. StL throws 1 more time per game and Amendola is 4th. TB is 2 more per game and VJax is 6th. Buffalo, 2 more times and Johnson is 8th. It's a percentage.
The 70% rate makes perfect sense when he is running short routes. Wes Welker is high because he runs short routes (similar deep route numbers to Crabtree). Percy Harvin is at almost 80% because he runs even less deep routes than bothe Crabtree and Welker. There is probably a pretty high correlation between running fewer deeproutes and catch percentage. There isn't any reason for that to change as long as he runs the same kind of routes.14th (tied for 13th with Steve Smith) is high. A lot of teams have 2 guys in the top 32. If I made a list of guys who get a higher % than Crabtree, he would stick out. Brian Hartline being the sore thumb.Percy Harvin and Wes Welker play in the slot. Not that it matters, because I don't think you are countering any point I made. But Michael Crabtree has the highest catch % of a predominant outside WR. #2 is Roddy White and #3 is Calvin Johnson. I don't think it will hold up all season, again, it is well below his career average. Also, again, if his usage were to change - if he were to be used the way most outside WRs are - it would also result in a drop. Unless we think he is in the Calvin, Roddy conversation.ETA: Crabtee's target % is currently higher than both Roddy and Calvin.
Last edited by a moderator:
The 70% rate makes perfect sense when he is running short routes. Wes Welker is high because he runs short routes (similar deep route numbers to Crabtree). Percy Harvin is at almost 80% because he runs even less deep routes than bothe Crabtree and Welker. There is probably a pretty high correlation between running fewer deeproutes and catch percentage. There isn't any reason for that to change as long as he runs the same kind of routes.14th (tied for 13th with Steve Smith) is high. A lot of teams have 2 guys in the top 32. If I made a list of guys who get a higher % than Crabtree, he would stick out. Brian Hartline being the sore thumb.Percy Harvin and Wes Welker play in the slot. Not that it matters, because I don't think you are countering any point I made. But Michael Crabtree has the highest catch % of a predominant outside WR. #2 is Roddy White and #3 is Calvin Johnson. I don't think it will hold up all season, again, it is well below his career average. Also, again, if his usage were to change - if he were to be used the way most outside WRs are - it would also result in a drop. Unless we think he is in the Calvin, Roddy conversation.
ETA: Crabtee's target % is currently higher than both Roddy and Calvin.
There will of course be a few teams with 2 guys in the top 32, but I don't think I'd call 4 teams a lot. Why does it matter where he lines up? It only matters the type of route he runs. Of course if his usage were to change, his catch % could be affected. But as I said above, if it doesn't change, there isn't any reason to expect his catch percentage to change.
EBF
Footballguy
You say that like it's a bad thing. Generally it's a good sign when someone is producing on par with the best players in the league. By now it's pretty clear what Crab is. Not an elite WR who would be the #1 target for every team in the NFL, but a solid starter who would be the #1 WR for a lot of teams in the NFL. He lacks big play skills, but is an above average possession WR due to his size/wingspan/hands/initial quickness. The things he's showing right now (the ability to uncover on short routes and be an effective possession WR) are the things that made him a first round pick coming out of college in the first place. Just because a player isn't a big play threat or a flashy athlete doesn't mean he lacks special qualities, as it's not easy to find someone who can go up against #1 corners and win the battle more often than not.
I don't understand your obsession with this stat. It's completely meaningless. It doesn't matter if a guy is getting 99% or 1% of his team's targets. All that matters is the total number of opportunities and the quality of those chances. Crabtree only has 38 targets, which isn't even among the top 20 WRs in the NFL (despite the fact that he hasn't even had a bye yet). It is pretty funny to suggest that this great opportunity is somehow pumping up his value, when in fact his production is right on par with his opportunity. 23rd among NFL WRs in targets. 23rd among NFL WRs in fantasy points. If he were top 10 in targets and only top 25 in ff points you might have an argument, but clearly that's not the case. All this thread really shows is that different people will draw different conclusions from the same stats in order to justify the opinions that they've already decided on. You don't like the guy and are (probably without even realizing it) framing the stats in such a way that supports your opinion instead of just taking things at face value.
Tau837
Footballguy
FBG scoring has him at WR22 from weeks 10-17 last year, with 67.2 fantasy points. As a point of comparison, WR12 was Marshall, with 82.3 fantasy points. That's almost 2 ppg difference, which is pretty substantial.
He has had 89/1059/5 on 130 targets in his last 16 regular season games. That is 8.5 fantasy points per game (non PPR). Not particularly exciting...
EBF
Footballguy
FBG scoring has him at WR22 from weeks 10-17 last year, with 67.2 fantasy points. As a point of comparison, WR12 was Marshall, with 82.3 fantasy points. That's almost 2 ppg difference, which is pretty substantial.
He has had 89/1059/5 on 130 targets in his last 16 regular season games. That is 8.5 fantasy points per game (non PPR). Not particularly exciting...I think 8 of my 9 dynasty leagues are PPR. I'm not really concerned with what he did in other formats. In my leagues he was the #12 WR in the second half of last season. Even if you take out his monster week 17 game, he was still top 16 from weeks 10-16. When healthy, he obviously has the potential to produce WR2 numbers. I think this might be the first season when he does it over 16 games.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
We are measuring a 5 game stretch, in which his catch % is 12% higher than his career average, and 10% higher than his previous high. I feel confident in my statement that it will come down some.And - you are not arguing against my original point: this is Crabtree's ceiling; if his usage changes, in the form of increased targets, his catch % will drop.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
EBF, you're making quite a claim here. Before either of us start suggesting the other is framing stats (with or without realizing it), lets make sure we both understand them.Target % is not meaningless at all. You made the claim that Crabtree could potentially produce 110/1325/12. How does he do that without more targets? He doesn't. So how does he get more targets? The 27% shows that he is already getting a very good number of his teams targets: there is little chance of that changing to the degree required for him to produce your projected ceiling. See? Not useless. If it was Dez Bryant we were talking about here, we would be able to conclude that he could get more targets, by getting a higher piece of the pie.So, if he is not going to get a higher %, his team would have to pass more, or he would have to find another team. If we wanted to talk through those scenarios more than we have, great. But very clearly, how much of the pie he is currently getting is relevant.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
You say that like it's a bad thing. Generally it's a good sign when someone is producing on par with the best players in the league. Again, I am showing why is ceiling is lower than what you think it is. Larry Fitzgerald had a below average catch rate two seasons ago. We know he has some of the best hands in the league, so it shows he wasn't getting enough catchable balls. Meaning, his ceiling was much higher than his current production.And he is not producing on par with the other two. He is catching as many balls, but they are closer to the line of scrimage, with much less defensive attention, and he is doing much less with each catch.
EBF
Footballguy
The percentage of the team's targets is, frankly, a really dumb way to look at the target stats. All that matters is the total number. To answer your question, he could get more targets by...getting more targets. If he's currently only 23rd among NFL WRs in targets then obviously there's a lot of room to go up.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
The percentage of the team's targets is, frankly, a really dumb way to look at the target stats. All that matters is the total number. To answer your question, he could get more targets by...getting more targets. If he's currently only 23rd among NFL WRs in targets then obviously there's a lot of room to go up.Here is what I must not be communication clearly. Targets don't magically appear. He is not going to magically start "...getting more targets". They have to come from somewhere.The 49ers are not going to start throwing much more than they have been - it's not their MO, right now. And he is not going to get a bigger piece of the pie than he already has, which is why target % is not "dumb".So please help me understand reasonable scenarios in which he starts getting more targets.
Tau837
Footballguy
Well, it would be helpful if you noted that. While it may be close, I'm pretty sure the majority still plays non-PPR. I play in 4 leagues, and only one is PPR (and 0.5 PPR at that). When I post numbers/stats, I try to remember to cite the scoring system, as I did here.
DoubleG
Footballguy
The percentage of the team's targets is, frankly, a really dumb way to look at the target stats. All that matters is the total number. To answer your question, he could get more targets by...getting more targets. If he's currently only 23rd among NFL WRs in targets then obviously there's a lot of room to go up.Except the fact that he plays in offense that is clearly "run first" - so they won't. Just yesterday I traded Crabtree for Locker in dynasty. I don't need another decent posession WR - especially one that doesn't get more targtes. You mentioned the only thing to look at is total numbers:Last 3 years averaged: 58 receptions for 747 yards and 4 TDs. Big ####.
Tau837
Footballguy
The percentage of the team's targets is, frankly, a really dumb way to look at the target stats. All that matters is the total number. To answer your question, he could get more targets by...getting more targets. If he's currently only 23rd among NFL WRs in targets then obviously there's a lot of room to go up.I'm not saying I believe target % is a great metric, but I also think you might be rash to dismiss Coop's point, at least unless you have an unstated rationale as to why you are dismissing it.Questions (all assuming Crabtree and other 49ers skill position players stay healthy):1. Crabtree is on pace for 122 targets. Do you think he will get more than 122 targets? If so, can you explain why you expect that? For example, do you expect the 49ers to pass more frequently? If so, why?2. Crabtree is on pace for 86/995/3 receiving. Do you expect his production per target to go up? If so, why?
EBF
Footballguy
Scenario #1: The team throws the ball to him more.
cstu
Footballguy
Magic Football Shoes
Footballguy
Crabtree has GREAT hands. Elite level hands, so yes, I expect his catch % to stay very high.
He has average NFL WR speed, burst and acceleration. He is on the 49ers for the duration of this season and will be in the same role he is in now. Finding a comp for him is really tough as there just aren't many offenses that work like SF's offense in the league in recent history.
He still hasn't even seen a double digit target game yet. Love him as a WR3. Especially paired with some more erratic WR1 & WR2's. A couple more games like last week and he shoots up the rankings.
He has average NFL WR speed, burst and acceleration. He is on the 49ers for the duration of this season and will be in the same role he is in now. Finding a comp for him is really tough as there just aren't many offenses that work like SF's offense in the league in recent history.
He still hasn't even seen a double digit target game yet. Love him as a WR3. Especially paired with some more erratic WR1 & WR2's. A couple more games like last week and he shoots up the rankings.
EBF
Footballguy
I'm not saying I believe target % is a great metric, but I also think you might be rash to dismiss Coop's point, at least unless you have an unstated rationale as to why you are dismissing it.Questions (all assuming Crabtree and other 49ers skill position players stay healthy):
1. Crabtree is on pace for 122 targets. Do you think he will get more than 122 targets? If so, can you explain why you expect that? For example, do you expect the 49ers to pass more frequently? If so, why?
2. Crabtree is on pace for 86/995/3 receiving. Do you expect his production per target to go up? If so, why?
I'm not arguing that he will get more targets. I don't think I've said anywhere in this thread that I expect his targets to go up. However, I definitely think it's possible. There is a pretty big difference there. To suggest that a player who is only 23rd among NFL WRs in targets has reached his upside is silly. Brian Hartline and Danny Amendola are at their upside because they're getting top 10 looks. Crabtree is not.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Brian Hartline is doing more, per target.
He is also getting a high target %.
Crabtree's success rate is 6% higher, but Smiths SR is 12% higher than Tannehill's.
Hartline goes deep on 50% more targets than Crabtree.
Hartline is on pace for 92/1645.
What is his upside?
He is also getting a high target %.
Crabtree's success rate is 6% higher, but Smiths SR is 12% higher than Tannehill's.
Hartline goes deep on 50% more targets than Crabtree.
Hartline is on pace for 92/1645.
What is his upside?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Not if you think that the player's per target production, including catch rate, would drop with an increased role, and increased attention.And not of you don't think he would be a #1 WR on the large majority of NFL teams.
We are measuring a 5 game stretch, in which his catch % is 12% higher than his career average, and 10% higher than his previous high. I feel confident in my statement that it will come down some.And - you are not arguing against my original point: this is Crabtree's ceiling; if his usage changes, in the form of increased targets, his catch % will drop.
That isn't necessarily true. If he gets more targets, AND they are the same type of passes, he can still have the same catch percentage. Welker had over 170 targets last year and maintained a 70% catch percentage. Why? Likely because the targets were short (a 15% deep rate - remarkably similar to Crabtree's 15.8% this year).
Concept Coop
Footballguy
A slant form the slot is a lot different than a slant from the outside. It doesn't do us much to compare Crabtree to Welker. Granted, my fault for making the comparison earlier. On top of that, Welker is an elite NFL WR. Crabtree is not. If the 49ers started throwing the ball a lot more, defenses would adjust to that. Play action would be less effective, and Crabtree would see more double and shifted coverage. Same answer if you suggested that Alex Smith could be as efficient throwing the ball significantly more. Defenses would adjust, and he is not capable, in my opinion, winning games that require him make plays, rather than manage. Even if the plays themselves were the same, the increase in attempts, would result in increased attention to the passing game. That would result in the old Alex Smith. Generally speaking, the more targets you get, and convert, the more coverage attention you see. The more a team passes, the more the defense plays the pass.
EBF
Footballguy
I really don't want to spend any more time in this thread than I already have, but I think Welker is the poster boy for how the right system and the right supporting cast can elevate a pretty average player to great heights. Welker is not an elite #1 who would dominate for any team. He was cut by the Chargers and only moderately productive on the Dolphins. When Miami traded him away for a 2nd and 7th rounder, it's unlikely that anyone would've claimed he was an elite player. But in a system that caters to his strengths, covers his weaknesses, and force feeds him the ball, he produces elite stats. The point is that you don't always know what a player is capable of until you put him the right environment for his skill set. I don't buy that Wes Welker is any more talented than Michael Crabtree. I just think he plays in a system that maximizes his talent and provides a huge number of opportunities. Put Crabtree in that offense with that coach and QB, and maybe he'd catch 95 balls every year.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I really don't want to spend any more time in this thread than I already have, but I think Welker is the poster boy for how the right system and the right supporting cast can elevate a pretty average player to great heights. Welker is not an elite #1 who would dominate for any team. He was cut by the Chargers and only moderately productive on the Dolphins. When Miami traded him away for a 2nd and 7th rounder, it's unlikely that anyone would've claimed he was an elite player. But in a system that caters to his strengths, covers his weaknesses, and force feeds him the ball, he produces elite stats. The point is that you don't always know what a player is capable of until you put him the right environment for his skill set. I don't buy that Wes Welker is any more talented than Michael Crabtree. I just think he plays in a system that maximizes his talent and provides a huge number of opportunities. Put Crabtree in that offense with that coach and QB, and maybe he'd catch 95 balls every year.It is a lot harder to get those catch numbers on the outside. Even if we decided Welker was an average talent, or on par with Crabtree, those catch numbers would be crazy. A system is not going to get an average outside WR 95 catches.Outside WRs with 95 catches in the last 5 years (2007-):CalvinRoddyWayneMarshallS.SmithHoushMossColstonI can see no scenario in which Crabtree joins that list.
Last edited by a moderator:
I have no reason to hate the guy at all.As for his catch rate - it is well above his career average, and in elite Wes Welker territory. The more targets you get, the lower your catch rate typically is. Unless you think Crabtree is on par with Roddy White, Wes Welker or Larry Fitzgerald, it is a stretch to suggest he maintain a 70% catch rate, and be top 10 in targets. The more targets you get, the more attention you get from opposing defenses. The more attention, the more difficult catch each target is on average. The more difficult, the fewer you catch. This trend is not my opinion - it is very clearly supported by stat documentation. Take a look yourself.Michael Crabtree is not very productive, per target. Even in catching 70%, his yards per target, and targets per score are all very low. He is not a playmaker, and stats clearly suggestsuch. That is the major reason he is benefiting from the SF offense: he would not be a WR1 many places, and he would not handle double coverage well. The SF offense is based on the run first, which dictates that defenses play accordingly. On top of that, Crabtree is not the biggest threat on his team, Davis is. So he gets the defenses first coverage changes. This means Crabtree runs safe routes, with single coverage, often. That is why his catch total is high, yet, he is not doing much, beyond making the initial catch.And if his talent isn't holding him back, what is? Why isn't he scoring TDs, even though Smith is throwing them? Why is his YPC so low, despite single coverage and effective play-action?I know you don't, which is why this is confusing. I've only got him in 1 league - a redraft PPR so don't think I'm someone who is heavily vested in the guy in dynasties or anything. I just don't understand the negative tone of your posts about him. The guy is looking like a great 10th round gem this year.Bottom line is that what you see is what you're going to get this year. He'll probably finish around 80/1000/5. Upside of 90/1200/7 if he can catch a break here or there (even a guy w/o top end speed can catch a 99 yard TD, ask Welker). He's not going to regress, though. Not in terms of catch %. Typically, catch % is strongly correlated to QB completion %. If Smith stays accurate, Crabtree will keep catching passes. And yes, I do think he's got Welker-good hands. Not sure why you mentioned Roddy White. I seem to recall his catch % being low. But given Crabtree's hands and routes, I think we can expect his catch % to stay high so long as Smith stays accurate.And you answered your own question later. You compare him to Hartline who is targeted deep often yet you are asking why Crabtree isn't scoring a lot of TDs. Obviously these short routes he's running are not conducive to explosive plays and touchdowns. Very few WRs would be scoring TDs on these routes. Maybe Steve Smith, Percy Harvin, or DeSean Jackson... but that's about it. Even those guys don't score a lot of receiving TDs. Only three WRs scored double digit TDs last year. Crabtree is very good at what he does, but unfortunately that doesn't give him a whole lot of upside. He's not a small guy, though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him targeted in the end zone if they decide to pass there.But looking at just this sample size isn't going to tell you a whole lot. He's got as many TDs as Calvin Johnson
