Crazy as it seems, I like all 4 road teams getting points.... (1 Viewer)

[robertd52]

Anyone else in that boat?

Obviously all could go either way ATS.

But Philly getting 4.5 has a legit shot traveling to a place they are used to playing vs a team they know how to play.

I see just as many reasons that SD can keep their came closer then 6.5 then I see reasons they cant. One BIG reason that I worry they cant is the cold weather...25-35 tops and 40% percepitation.

BAL is playing well and are a strong team now....relentless. Of course TEN is just as beast. This 2.5 spread is doable. This game is essentially a pick em, and again, I see just as many reasons that BAL can win as I do TEN.

Then there is ARZ. A LOT depends on Boldins health, but all the "east coast" talk aside, this is the playoffs. Warner has a ring, Whisenhunt has a ring, this team DID come to play last week on both sides of the ball. I do think they have a strong shot at "showing up" at the very least this week in a 55-60 degree game. If they at least dont roll over, I like their chances of covering getting9.5 points.

Im QUITE certain all 4 road teams will NOT beat the spread this week, but im not sure in what order I would rank them from top to bottom. I guess if I had to I would say:

BAL

ARZ (barring Boldin)

SD

PHI

And even that, I could easily slide any to #1.

Anyone else wanna throw out a ranking likely hood 1-4 that the road team beats the spread?

 

[Chase Stuart]

It's not a big surprise that you like all four road teams; in fact, all the reasons you listed above were incorporated into the spread. They're all essentially pick'em games against the spread.

That said, my favorite bet of the week is Pittsburgh. SD has a lot of hype, and while it's merited, I think Pittsburgh's D is really underrated by the public. I think Pitt on a neutral field beats this Chargers team by a touchdown, but a SD team traveling cross country seems even easier.

Bal-Ten is a total toss up. I like Ten more because of their offense, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see either team shut out. I think 2.5 is the right spread here.

Arizona's got a lot of questions to answer. They stink on the road, they stink on the east coast, they stink against non-division opponents. This isn't a particularly good matchup for the Cardinals. That said, in a playoff game, it's hard to expect a blowout. I think the line is right on here, so another toss-up.

Phi-NYG is close, but I think NYG are the clear (if not by a lot) better team. HFA isn't worth much in this series, so the line is just about right.

 

[robertd52]

It's not a big surprise that you like all four road teams; in fact, all the reasons you listed above were incorporated into the spread. They're all essentially pick'em games against the spread.That said, my favorite bet of the week is Pittsburgh. SD has a lot of hype, and while it's merited, I think Pittsburgh's D is really underrated by the public. I think Pitt on a neutral field beats this Chargers team by a touchdown, but a SD team traveling cross country seems even easier.Bal-Ten is a total toss up. I like Ten more because of their offense, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see either team shut out. I think 2.5 is the right spread here.Arizona's got a lot of questions to answer. They stink on the road, they stink on the east coast, they stink against non-division opponents. This isn't a particularly good matchup for the Cardinals. That said, in a playoff game, it's hard to expect a blowout. I think the line is right on here, so another toss-up.Phi-NYG is close, but I think NYG are the clear (if not by a lot) better team. HFA isn't worth much in this series, so the line is just about right.

Last week seemed much easier, I had that one pegged from Tuesday on ATS. Sure I was lucky in some cases it worked out, but it seemed like I could feel them all out right away as a likely hood then this week.

 

[Die]

That said, my favorite bet of the week is Pittsburgh. SD has a lot of hype, and while it's merited, I think Pittsburgh's D is really underrated by the public. I think Pitt on a neutral field beats this Chargers team by a touchdown, but a SD team traveling cross country seems even easier.

You really think so? The Steelers were the favorites in the Shark Pool to win the super bowl, and their defense has been high profile all year I thought. The Chargers seem to be the team with zero hype. In fact San Diego has a huge chip on their shoulder about how Rivers was slighted in the pro bowl voting and how everyone thinks they shouldn't even have made the playoffs. Few thought they beat the Colts (me neither), and most everyone is picking the Steelers.I think the spread reflects the fact that betters recall the 11-10 game in Heinz Field earlier this year, coupled with the fact that the Steelers offense has struggled at times. As much as people like the Steelers, I doubt many see them blowing out anybody. I think they envision Pittsburgh grinding out 3 close victories in the playoffs and winning their 6th Lombardi.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

I like Baltimore straight up.

 

[Unwrittenlaw]

I like San Diego a lot. (not just because I'm a fan as well)

Big Ben's previous games after a concussion have been terrible - small sample size but still I figured it'll still take awhile for him to recover. He was down on the field for 15 minutes.

After that ATL game in '06:

vs OAK - Within the first 10 minutes, he threw two interceptions. 301 yd 1TD 4 INT for the game

2 weeks later vs DEN - 433 yards 1 TD 3 INT

The Steelers lost both games.

PS: Pitts Offensive Line isn't the greatest in the world and if SD can get some good shots early on, their passing game won't be very effective if Ben is worrying a lot about being pressured.

SD had a couple of sacks vs IND.

 

[Godsbrother]

PS: Pitts Offensive Line isn't the greatest in the world and if SD can get some good shots early on, their passing game won't be very effective if Ben is worrying a lot about being pressured.SD had a couple of sacks vs IND.

There is no question that SD is going to be able to bring pressure as the Steelers o-line stinks. However Ben was very effective (31/41/308) in the first meeting by going to a 3 step drop so he got rid of the ball quick. I would expect a lot of the same this week though with OC Bruce Arians you can never be too sure. TE Heath Miller missed the previous matchup and he could have a huge game if they stick with same game plan as before.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Steelers win this game with Leftwich without too much of a problem, IMO.

 

[Steeler]

Steelers win this game with Leftwich without too much of a problem, IMO.

You mean in a hypothetical situation? Because Big Ben is playing.

 

[toxicbees]

Looking at historical stats, the home team almost always wins and beats the spread. I remember a few years ago when all 4 teams covered and beat the spread, but most of time its 3 out of 4.

Vegas is trying to trap people into betting for the road dog, knowing that people have a short memory and the win from last week is still fresh in their mind.

Most of the home teams have had 3 weeks of rest because they didn't need to play in week 17. That and home field is a HUGE advantage, don't underestimate it.

 

[Getinthemix]

It's not a big surprise that you like all four road teams; in fact, all the reasons you listed above were incorporated into the spread. They're all essentially pick'em games against the spread.

That said, my favorite bet of the week is Pittsburgh. SD has a lot of hype, and while it's merited, I think Pittsburgh's D is really underrated by the public. I think Pitt on a neutral field beats this Chargers team by a touchdown, but a SD team traveling cross country seems even easier.

Bal-Ten is a total toss up. I like Ten more because of their offense, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see either team shut out. I think 2.5 is the right spread here.

Arizona's got a lot of questions to answer. They stink on the road, they stink on the east coast, they stink against non-division opponents. This isn't a particularly good matchup for the Cardinals. That said, in a playoff game, it's hard to expect a blowout. I think the line is right on here, so another toss-up.

Phi-NYG is close, but I think NYG are the clear (if not by a lot) better team. HFA isn't worth much in this series, so the line is just about right.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

It's not crazy to think this but it's probably short-sighted. Many people often think this way because you recently saw all the road teams play and their success last week is fresh in your mind. Meanwhile, some of the home teams had already clinched in week 16 so in addition to not seeing them last week, you possibly haven't seen them perform well in nearly a month.

I think a lot of people tend to think this way due to the recency factor.

 

[ROCKET]

I'm liking the Giants to cover after hearing about how Philly is somehow a team of destiny all week. They lost less than a month ago @ Washington and they are'nt anywhere near the team NY is.

I think they keep it close early but the G-Men pull away towards the end.

I'm all over Carolina in a blow-out and can see D'Angelo running all over them while Warner gets pummeled and implodes.

Baltimore/Tenn is a complete tossup IMO but I'll ride the hot team in Baltimore with the upset.

And although the Pittsburgh offense worries me I think the Steelers shut down SD and win another ugly game by at least 14. They win with their defense dominating and assuming the offense avoids turnovers they pull away in the second half.

In the playoffs I'm not concerned about laying double digit points as much as I am in the regular season.

 

[tombonneau]

I'm all over Carolina in a blow-out and can see D'Angelo running all over them while Warner gets pummeled and implodes.

This is the only line I like. The Cards won their Super Bowl last week. They Gatorade'd their friggin' coach for crying out loud. In a wild card game!!!Everything couldn't be more against the Cards. The only thing that worries me is the Cards offense has backdoor potential. I could easily see this game being 30-10 in the fourth quarter, and the Panther give up a few garbage scores and it's 30-20 at the final whistle.The other line I like, if it comes back down to 2.5, is the Titans. The public loves the Ravens, and the big road win is fresh. But a rookie QB going into a tough stadium (i.e. not Miami) vs. a great defense and you're only laying a FG? I think Ravens are sucker public play of the week.

 

[David Yudkin]

Didn't the Steelers beat SD a few weeks ago 11-10? Why would they suddenly win fairly easily when SD is now playing their best football?

 

[ceo3west]

Didn't the Steelers beat SD a few weeks ago 11-10? Why would they suddenly win fairly easily when SD is now playing their best football?

I think SD has a great chance of winning this game.

 

[David Yudkin]

Didn't the Steelers beat SD a few weeks ago 11-10? Why would they suddenly win fairly easily when SD is now playing their best football?

I think SD has a great chance of winning this game.

IIRC, didn't the Steelers get jipped a last second TD that would have increased their margin of victory . . . something that was called an illegal forward pass that was intercepted and run back and they didn't count the points. Still was a close game either way but probably made SD a winner in Vegas.

 

[ROCKET]

Didn't the Steelers beat SD a few weeks ago 11-10? Why would they suddenly win fairly easily when SD is now playing their best football?

They should have won 18-10 if not for the blown call at the end. I'll take my chances with the Steelers at home, coming off a bye and giving up less than a td. SD barely beat Indy at home and probably should have lost. Pittsburgh's defense is head and shoulders above Indy's and I think the Chargers recent run comes to a screaching halt this weekend.

 

[rzrback77]

Didn't the Steelers beat SD a few weeks ago 11-10? Why would they suddenly win fairly easily when SD is now playing their best football?

I think SD has a great chance of winning this game.

I'm also on this wagon.

 

[tombonneau]

Didn't the Steelers beat SD a few weeks ago 11-10? Why would they suddenly win fairly easily when SD is now playing their best football?

I think SD has a great chance of winning this game.

I'm also on this wagon.

I like SD a lot getting 6. Will be interested to see who the public is backing here and watch line movement. If SD is the public play I'll be wary. But I think they'll back Pitt, who is a public favorite.

 

[Die]

I'm all over Carolina in a blow-out and can see D'Angelo running all over them while Warner gets pummeled and implodes.

This is the only line I like. The Cards won their Super Bowl last week. They Gatorade'd their friggin' coach for crying out loud. In a wild card game!!!

Maybe they did it because its very dry in the desert and they wanted to make sure Whisenhunt was properly hydrated.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Regarding who the "public" or consensus is backing:

From covers.com:

Baltimore +3 (public backs at 56.7%) at Tennessee

Arizona +10 (public backs at 59.36%) at Carolina

Public loves over 48.5 of Arizona/Carolina (63.62%)

Philly-NY Giants and Pitt-San Diego, the consensus is almost 50/50 for both games.

The public also loves the over 40 for the Giants/Philly game (64.79%)

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I parlayed Carolina and Pittsburgh on the ML.

Risking $300 to win $200.

 

[tombonneau]

I parlayed Carolina and Pittsburgh on the ML.Risking $300 to win $200.

Well, I knew at least one home team was losing outright this weekend. Thanks for narrowing my choices.

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I parlayed Carolina and Pittsburgh on the ML.Risking $300 to win $200.

Well, I knew at least one home team was losing outright this weekend. Thanks for narrowing my choices.

Tennessee

 

[tombonneau]

Regarding who the "public" or consensus is backing:From covers.com:Baltimore +3 (public backs at 56.7%) at TennesseeArizona +10 (public backs at 59.36%) at CarolinaPublic loves over 48.5 of Arizona/Carolina (63.62%)Philly-NY Giants and Pitt-San Diego, the consensus is almost 50/50 for both games.The public also loves the over 40 for the Giants/Philly game (64.79%)

Thanks for public numbers. Liking my Tenn & Carolina leans a lot more after seeing that. Will probably also put together a 10 pt total tease:Az/Car o38.5Pitt/SD u48NYG/Phi u50

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

It's not a big surprise that you like all four road teams; in fact, all the reasons you listed above were incorporated into the spread. They're all essentially pick'em games against the spread.That said, my favorite bet of the week is Pittsburgh. SD has a lot of hype, and while it's merited, I think Pittsburgh's D is really underrated by the public. I think Pitt on a neutral field beats this Chargers team by a touchdown, but a SD team traveling cross country seems even easier.Bal-Ten is a total toss up. I like Ten more because of their offense, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see either team shut out. I think 2.5 is the right spread here.Arizona's got a lot of questions to answer. They stink on the road, they stink on the east coast, they stink against non-division opponents. This isn't a particularly good matchup for the Cardinals. That said, in a playoff game, it's hard to expect a blowout. I think the line is right on here, so another toss-up.Phi-NYG is close, but I think NYG are the clear (if not by a lot) better team. HFA isn't worth much in this series, so the line is just about right.

SD getting hype??? from where?most people think they dont even belong on the field with Pitt. theye were dogs at home last week.Not sure where you get this stuff

 

[Tanner9919]

It's not a big surprise that you like all four road teams; in fact, all the reasons you listed above were incorporated into the spread. They're all essentially pick'em games against the spread.

That said, my favorite bet of the week is Pittsburgh. SD has a lot of hype, and while it's merited, I think Pittsburgh's D is really underrated by the public. I think Pitt on a neutral field beats this Chargers team by a touchdown, but a SD team traveling cross country seems even easier.

Bal-Ten is a total toss up. I like Ten more because of their offense, but it wouldn't surprise me at all to see either team shut out. I think 2.5 is the right spread here.

Arizona's got a lot of questions to answer. They stink on the road, they stink on the east coast, they stink against non-division opponents. This isn't a particularly good matchup for the Cardinals. That said, in a playoff game, it's hard to expect a blowout. I think the line is right on here, so another toss-up.

Phi-NYG is close, but I think NYG are the clear (if not by a lot) better team. HFA isn't worth much in this series, so the line is just about right.

Az has a better chance to win than most give them credit for. They had a 17 pt lead vs Carolina on Oct. 28th

AT Carolina , and gave up 21 pts in the third quarter , losing the game 27-23 on a 50-yard FG by Kasay.

my money would be on Az keeping this game close and pulling out a win by the spread, if not an outright win..

Carolina is good, but I'll go with the team that lost a squeaker earlier in the season, and is now looking for revenge/payback..

Classic upset special..



Tenn should easily man-handle the Ravens and Joe Flacco..Sure, Balt has a good defense, but the Giants bull-dozed them a few weeks ago.Tenn has a similar rushing attack, and I'd expect the same sort of outcome. Baltimore's defense was WORN OUT at the end of the Miami game. That should be a factor...

I like the Giants giving pts, the week off is what matters most here...

Gotta love Pitt in a home playoff game...I doubt Sproles will be much of a factor..he was playing against the Colts lousy,putrid rush defense last week ..Pitt's rush defense is outstanding..give the pts!

 

[robertd52]

It's not crazy to think this but it's probably short-sighted. Many people often think this way because you recently saw all the road teams play and their success last week is fresh in your mind. Meanwhile, some of the home teams had already clinched in week 16 so in addition to not seeing them last week, you possibly haven't seen them perform well in nearly a month.I think a lot of people tend to think this way due to the recency factor.

Good point. That said, you can almost assure that one of the 4 homes teams will come out flat because of the long lay off. Who knows which one though....

 

[Godsbrother]

Didn't the Steelers beat SD a few weeks ago 11-10? Why would they suddenly win fairly easily when SD is now playing their best football?

The Steelers heavily dominated the game statistically. They didn't score a TD but they were penalized 13 times for 115 yds, one of those nulifying a TD. Perhaps people are thinking it is unlikely the Steelers will be penalized so heavily again?They also had the TD at the end of the game wrongfully called back so the score should have been 18-10 which is still under the 6 being given.

 

[tombonneau]

Az has a better chance to win than most give them credit for. They had a 17 pt lead vs Carolina on Oct. 28th

AT Carolina , and gave up 21 pts in the third quarter , losing the game 27-23 on a 50-yard FG by Kasay.

my money would be on Az keeping this game close and pulling out a win by the spread, if not an outright win..

Did the NFC recently vote to go to 4pt 50+ FG scoring format?

 

[massraider]

Az has a better chance to win than most give them credit for. They had a 17 pt lead vs Carolina on Oct. 28th

AT Carolina , and gave up 21 pts in the third quarter , losing the game 27-23 on a 50-yard FG by Kasay.

my money would be on Az keeping this game close and pulling out a win by the spread, if not an outright win..

Did the NFC recently vote to go to 4pt 50+ FG scoring format?

Well, it's about time.

 

[Warehouse Nasty]

It's not crazy to think this but it's probably short-sighted. Many people often think this way because you recently saw all the road teams play and their success last week is fresh in your mind. Meanwhile, some of the home teams had already clinched in week 16 so in addition to not seeing them last week, you possibly haven't seen them perform well in nearly a month.I think a lot of people tend to think this way due to the recency factor.

Good point. That said, you can almost assure that one of the 4 homes teams will come out flat because of the long lay off. Who knows which one though....

Yeah, it's really been a crapshoot lately as to how teams will react during this round of games. I don't have the evidence to support it and I'm too lazy to look it up but it would seem to me that teams that maybe rested their guys in week 16 and/or 17 then had a bye week might be in trouble as that may just be too much time. It's asking a lot to just pick up where you left off. That said, most all these teams gave it all they had in week 17 (with the exception of resting injured players) so I expect little to no rust from the home teams.

 

[FairWarning]

Road teams always look attractive in this round because they won last week. Just as important, the four home teams were resting and getting healthy. The NFC usually plays closer to form with the home teams winning at a higher rate. This year is a little different as every game is a rematch. The two road teams I would play are Philly and Baltimore. SD/Pitt, I am laying off for now, and will play Carolina.

 

[kroyrunner89]

It's interesting, my program does like all 4 teams getting points. Like you, I don't for a second believe all 4 underdogs will cover, but now the trick is figuring out which ones will. My program is hitting 57% ATS predicting all games since week 9 when I kicked it off, even better when I look at the stronger plays. It actually likes Arizona to win outright this week, but that's a pick that really scares me to be totally honest. Vegas rarely screws up a line that badly, Carolina by 9.5 is an awfully different opinion. I'm going to mull everything over for 24 more hours, then post up what I'm liking best this weekend. Good luck this weekend guys.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

Charger Money Line

The Chargers had only 2 real offensive posessions in the 2nd half of the first matchup. One was a long drive resulting in a missed FG, the other was a longer 17 play 80 yard drive resulting in a FG. The final (3rd) drive if you want to call it one, was 1 play with 11 seconds left, I do not count as there was no time on the clock, it was a fluke -16 yard loss that should have been a Steeler TD. Those lost 16 yards and lost Steelers pts are irrelevant.

So basically the Steelers (and Chargers) offense hogged the ball the second half. I believe the Chargers defense is playing considerably better now (that was Riveras second game (first road game) as D Coordinator). I expect the Chargers offense to get more possessions this time. I expect them to move the ball and score.

I expect Chargers win by 7+ which shocks most everyone.

As for Tenn, I expect them also to win by +7. Jeff Fisher's team is not getting the hype, I expect him to use that to light a fire under his team. I think the teams mirror each other very much, difference being I like the Titans running game better then the Ravens. Also back to back tough road trips take the toll on the Ravens in my estimation.

Cards +10. I expect the game to go to the wire, not sure if the Cards can win, but I expect it to be close. The Carolina defense has been giving up nearly 30pts a game for the past month 6 weeks (only 1 time holding a team under 20).

Eags +4.5 smaller plays.

So to sum it up, I like 3 out of the 4 road teams...

 

[Steeler43]

Charger Money LineThe Chargers had only 2 real offensive posessions in the 2nd half of the first matchup. One was a long drive resulting in a missed FG, the other was a longer 17 play 80 yard drive resulting in a FG. The final (3rd) drive if you want to call it one, was 1 play with 11 seconds left, I do not count as there was no time on the clock, it was a fluke -16 yard loss that should have been a Steeler TD. Those lost 16 yards and lost Steelers pts are irrelevant. So basically the Steelers (and Chargers) offense hogged the ball the second half. I believe the Chargers defense is playing considerably better now (that was Riveras second game (first road game) as D Coordinator). I expect the Chargers offense to get more possessions this time. I expect them to move the ball and score. I expect Chargers win by 7+ which shocks most everyone.As for Tenn, I expect them also to win by +7. Jeff Fisher's team is not getting the hype, I expect him to use that to light a fire under his team. I think the teams mirror each other very much, difference being I like the Titans running game better then the Ravens. Also back to back tough road trips take the toll on the Ravens in my estimation.Cards +10. I expect the game to go to the wire, not sure if the Cards can win, but I expect it to be close. The Carolina defense has been giving up nearly 30pts a game for the past month 6 weeks (only 1 time holding a team under 20). Eags +4.5 smaller plays.So to sum it up, I like 3 out of the 4 road teams...

Sound advice here.

 

[David Yudkin]

Cards +10. I expect the game to go to the wire, not sure if the Cards can win, but I expect it to be close. The Carolina defense has been giving up nearly 30pts a game for the past month 6 weeks (only 1 time holding a team under 20).

In 5 trips to the East Coast, ARI has allowed an average of 40.4 ppg. CAR averaged 13.9 ppg and have not lost at home this year.

 

[tombonneau]

Cards +10. I expect the game to go to the wire, not sure if the Cards can win, but I expect it to be close. The Carolina defense has been giving up nearly 30pts a game for the past month 6 weeks (only 1 time holding a team under 20).

In 5 trips to the East Coast, ARI has allowed an average of 40.4 ppg. CAR averaged 13.9 ppg and have not lost at home this year.

I expect Carolina to roll in this one. The D will play much better at home. One of my books is -9.5 and I'm locking in ................. NOW.