AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Here's an article from Foxsports:
First, the Milwaukee Brewers put the rest of the National League on notice by acquiring coveted lefty and reigning AL Cy Young winner CC Sabathia. Then the Chicago Cubs did the same by nabbing Oakland ace Rich Harden. Oh, and let's not forget that the St. Louis Cardinals still occupy second place in the division and narrowly lead the NL wild-card chase.So the matter at hand is what this flurry of activity means for what's become one of the toughest divisions in baseball. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Cubs have a 94.8 percent chance of making the postseason, while the Brewers and Cardinals have, respectively, a 59.0 percent chance and a 25.4 percent chance of getting there. Obviously, Baseball Prospectus sees the Cubs as mortal locks for the postseason, and they see the Cards as having a much worse chance than the Brewers. Now let's take a look at another Prospectus tool called "Third-Order Standings." Third-Order Standings lays out what the standings should be once you correct for runs scored and runs allowed at the component level and strength of schedule. Anyhow, according to Third-Order Standings, the Cubs should lead the division over the Brewers by 6.5 games, and the Cardinals should be 7.5 games behind the Cubs. Of course, these indicators don't account for the recent trades.As for Harden's new team, the Cubs, they lead the NL Central by 3.5 games over the Brewers and Cardinals. So they're already in a position of relative strength. Now they boast a rotation front to rival Milwaukee's. After all, they've added Harden to a group that already includes two All-Stars and Ted Lilly.Of course, such scenarios assume Harden will be healthy, and that's a dangerous assumption. On the mound, Harden has all the gifts you could want, but he's also been on the disabled list six times in his young career. This year, Harden's been dominant (2.34 ERA, 92 strikeouts in 77.0 innings), but history suggests that his shoulder's probably not going to hold up. If it does, though, then the Cubs have landed a front-line starter (albeit one who doesn't customarily go deep into games) and a highly useful swing man (Chad Gaudin) in exchange for a reasonable package.But there's another concern: Parting with Gallagher means that Jason Marquis must hold down the fifth starter's job. It's almost a historical imperative that Marquis will collapse in the second half. For his career, Marquis' ERA before the break is an acceptable 4.29; after the break, however, that figure rises to 4.97. At present, the Cubs' other options for the five hole include Rich Hill, whose control problems have forced him all the way down to rookie ball, and the newly acquired Gaudin, who's much more effective when deployed as a reliever. So if Harden goes down and Marquis struggles in the second half (neither is particularly unlikely), then the Cubs suddenly have serious issues in the rotation. In other words, the loss of Gallagher is not to be discounted.The Brewers, of course, add Sabathia to a rotation that's already fronted by All-Star Ben Sheets. And don't let Sabathia's "good not great" ERA of 3.83 fool you — he's been mostly unhittable since April. There's also the fact that Sabathia's addition improves a Brewers rotation that ranked a middling eighth in the NL in starters' ERA. He's a difference-maker — that much we know — but how much of one? One way to think about it is that Sabathia immediately gives the Brewers what's without question the top one-two punch in the game. Moreover, by the September stretch drive, it's possible they'll boast a rotation of Sabathia, Sheets, Manny Parra, Yovani Gallardo and Jeff Suppan. If Gallardo and Suppan are healthy and pitching up to their skills, then that's the best rotation in baseball today.Also, by acquiring Sabathia at the beginning of the month as opposed to much closer to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, GM Doug Melvin has ensured that his Brewers will get another five or so starts out of their new ace. What's also worth noting is that the Brewers play a somewhat easier schedule the rest of the way. Specifically, the Cubs' and Cardinals' remaining opponents have an average winning percentage of .500, while the Brewers' remaining opponents have an average winning percentage of .477. Oh, and the Brewers will also play the Cubs 10 more times, and seven of those games will be in Milwaukee. So they'll enjoy plenty of chances to chip away at Chicago's lead.As for the Cardinals, it would be a mistake to dismiss the Cardinals out of hand. They have the best manager and best hitter in baseball, and at some point in the second half they should get back Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. As well, there's the hope that Mark Mulder will somehow rediscover adequacy and that Matt Clement will have something to offer going forward. Mostly, though, they need over-performers like Ryan Ludwick, Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer to keep it going. Statistical realities suggest that's not likely to happen. Sure, St. Louis is capable of making a play at the deadline, but it's not likely that someone of Sabathia's or Harden's capabilities is going to be on the market. And do they really want to part with Colby Rasmus, which they'd probably have to do in order to obtain an impact player? Probably not.With all that said, the Cubs remain, for now, the team to beat in the division. The Brewers' bold trade has closed the gap, certainly, but the prevailing reality is the Cubs' powerhouse offense, strong rotation (for now, anyway), strong bullpen and sound defense make them the NL's best and most balanced team. Plus, they'll have Alfonso Soriano back from the disabled list shortly after the break. As mentioned, if Harden goes down and Marquis falters, then they'll be in trouble. But with Felix Pie still in the fold, the Cubs may have enough left to add at the deadline someone like A.J. Burnett, who tends to thrive in the second half.In the final analysis, Milwaukee, by acquiring Sabathia, has positioned itself as the odds-on favorite to win the wild card. The Cubs remain the favorites to win the division, and if Harden stays healthy, then that's especially the case. However, the Cubs have taken more of a risk than the Brewers have. They're depending on Harden to stay off the DL and Marquis to pitch adequately in the second half. Neither has a history of doing that. As for the Cardinals, they're likely to fall behind in the coming weeks, but they've spent all of 2008 defying expectations.If nothing else, a deeply compelling division just got a lot more compelling. NL Central fans, stay tuned: This is going to be good.
Last edited by a moderator:
First thing I thought when I read the artical.Hell, I'm all for Marshall as the 5th starter.
First thing I thought when I read the artical.
Sheets hasn't started more than 24 games in 5 years. He's already started 17 this year - the Brewer's better pick those last 7 carefully.Either the writer for Foxsports is a huge Brewer fan or simply wants to paint things in the best possible light for the Brewers. He also conveniently forgets that the rest of the division has been unable to close the gap on the Cubs in a several week period that the Cubs have been without Zambrano and Soriano. How would the Brewer's fair if you had taken Sheets and Braun off their roster for 2+ weeks at the same time?
Who cares how many games Gallagher wins in the next year and a half? The Cubs are playing for this year. That's what these trades are all about.
Rival GM
Which I guess supports your late-in-games point.
Which I guess supports your late-in-games point.
