custom VBD baselines (1 Viewer)

[TheCommish]

Over the years, I have seen a lot of people in this forum ask about the "perfect" VBD baselines to use for their draft cheat sheets (especially with RB/WR/TE flex starters, which is very mainstream now). With so many lineup requirements and scoring systems out there, however, I'm convinced there isn't a baseline that is "one size fits all." And since I have often wondered myself if the baselines I have been using are ideal for my league, I decided to dig into the numbers of my league and come up with something that makes more sense. I'm curious to hear if you guys think my logic in determining my new baselines is sound. So here we go.

I have season-ending statistics in a spreadsheet going back a number of years. Using these statistics, I can calculate how many RBs, WRs and TEs should have been used throughout the year to make the most efficient starting lineups. We require 1 starter at RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, and 3 FLEX that can be any of those three positions. Last year, my league's top 25 RBs, 47 WRs and 12 TEs would have qualified as the "best" starters based on year-end statistics. These numbers would be my "ideal" baselines for 2012. So, based on last year's numbers, with my league's starting lineup requirements and scoring system, WRs dominated the FLEX position nearly 2 to 1 over RBs (of the 36 FLEX spots, 13 went to RBs, 23 went to WRs and 0 went to TEs).

I have run these numbers going back 5 years, and I have found that over the past 3 years, RBs just aren't as important as they used to be. In 2008, the 36 FLEX spots were allocated as 22 RB, 14 WR and 0 TE. In 2009, it was 22 RB, 13 WR and 1 TE. But things changed drastically in 2010, where the 3-year average from 2010-2012 was 15.3 RB, 20.0 WR and 0.7 TE. To further support this shift, the FootballGuys 2013 projections estimate the FLEX allocation to be 14 RB, 22 WR and 0 TE. The conclusion is that (in my league), the baselines should be more geared toward WRs than RBs, because the recent trend supports the shift (based on 3-year final statistics and current projections).

The actual custom baselines that I will be using this season are 27 RB, 44 WR and 13 TE. I calculated these baselines by taking the average of the "ideal" baselines from 2010-2012 plus the projected baseline for 2013 (28+29+25+26/4 = 27 RB, 43+42+47+46/4 = 44.5 WR, 13+13+12+12/4=12.5 TE). I arbitrarily decided to round down the WR and round up the TE. I could have just as easily rounded up the WR and rounded down the TE.

The first thing you will notice when you plug in these new baselines, is that WRs skyrocket up the draft board. My intention is to use this new draft board as a guide to show me where the true value is in the draft, but to also compare it to ADP to make sure I'm not drafting a player too early. I'm optimistic that this new way of calculating VBD will yield better results than the RB-heavy teams I have ended up with in previous years. Thoughts?

 

[moleculo]

I'm not sure you want WR's floating to the top. Essentially, what you are saying is that because WR44 is more valuable than RB27, Dez Bryant is more valuable than Trent Richardson, for example... no idea if that's how your VBD rankings come together, just an illustration.

What I do in my flex league (RB, WR, WR, TE, flex, flex), is I do a lump RB's and WR's all together into one pile and find a VBD for that combined position. That VBD may be 60 players deep, but because RB's and WR's can both interchange between two flex spots, it's best to consider them as one pool. Of course, I have to manually make sure I have at least a starting line-up available.

 

[sporthenry]

Assuming this is PPR, then a 1 RB PPR league really does provide you with flexibility and a chance to go WR heavy.

The one pause I would have with this though is that you have to be cognizant that others will be using more standard baselines (or just regular projections) which will overrate RB's. While this helps provide you value with WRs, it could also shut you out of a RB. I think this is best to use when drafting for flex but I'm still targeting a top back towards the start of the draft.

 

[Biabreakable]

I like moleculo's suggestion of putting them all in the same pool (RB/WR baselines).

I think your baseline at RB is too shallow. It does not represent the scarcity/demand at the position enough imo. While playing a WR at your flex may more often be the better choice, the way you have set your baselines may tell you to draft WR too high. Remember you want not only a RB flex option but depth in case of injury as well.

 

[GregR]

I'm not sure you want WR's floating to the top. Essentially, what you are saying is that because WR44 is more valuable than RB27, Dez Bryant is more valuable than Trent Richardson, for example... no idea if that's how your VBD rankings come together, just an illustration.

What I do in my flex league (RB, WR, WR, TE, flex, flex), is I do a lump RB's and WR's all together into one pile and find a VBD for that combined position. That VBD may be 60 players deep, but because RB's and WR's can both interchange between two flex spots, it's best to consider them as one pool. Of course, I have to manually make sure I have at least a starting line-up available.

Actually he's saying WR44 and RB27 are of equal value. If it shows Bryant is more valuable than Richardson, it's because he outscores his position more than Richardson outscores him, and that would make him more valuable.

Of course there are other things that affect a player's value to your optimal team. Like your league's draft tendencies, of which VBD does not try to incorporate anything. That can make our hypothetical Richardson as or more valuable even if VBD's cheatsheet says otherwise.

Which is why one shouldn't draft from the VBD cheatsheet as if it is a final say. We should incorporate it as one major component of a draft strategy. But it should be an input, not an end result.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Having trouble with this as well if anyone can help,

We start QB RB WR TE 2 flex

Only 4 bench spots 12 team league PPR 6 per all TDs. I'd assume WRs TEs would be high how would you set up the "roster spots" portion in the DD

 

[Hobbes]

We don't use a flex in my league...but if we did I assume I would take a similar approach to moleculo. I would run VBD for RB, WR, TE, and Flex (using all 3 positions) independently. That way you don't have to forecast the number of each position to include in your flex baseline. If I was drafting for the RB position I would use the RB VBD number...if I was drafting a RB for the flex position then I would look at the flex VBD number.