*** D Branch thread *** (1 Viewer)

[grouse]

Another question for you Patroit gurus: Let's hypothetically assume Branch is traded or holds out for the first 10 games.What's the offense look like then? Who gets the balls and how effective are they?J

Where this really limits the Patriots is in using their 5 wideout sets that Charlie Weiss liked so much. With Weiss gone last year they used this set less than previous years and with Branch gone will use it even less.I think the Pats still have good underneath guys in Troy Brown and Bam Childress (completely unproven but looks like a young Troy Brown). They have a very good receiving back in Kevin Faulk. I would expect them to use more screens with Maroney and Patrick Pass. And they have excellent TE's in Watson, Graham, Thomas and Mills.What they are missing are the deep guys to keep the underneath from getting too clogged. Over the last couple of years they had Bethel Johnson, Tim Dwight and Andre Davis to stretch the field. None of them great receivers but they played their roles well.Throwing the deep ball was not a strength of Brady early in his career but he really improved last year to the point that he throws one of the best deep balls in the league now. Who is going to be on the other end of those deep passes? Hopefully Chad Jackson can get over this hamstring issue and contribute. He is their most talented WR.There will be more of an emphasis on the running game this year if Dillon, Maroney, and Faulk can stay healthy.First offense has looked very good in the preseason. They have a favorable early schedule unlike last year.

I think you paint a picture that's plausible. Maybe the Pats will be ok without both of their starting wideouts from recent years. Maybe.Or, maybe this is a house of cards. Easy schedules are great, as long as you win. Now imagine what post-game press conferences start to look like if Belichick and Co. drop one to the Bills or Jets to start the season? I'll tell you the first thing that happens, Parcells gets on the phone and puts in one of his many calls to his buddy Belichick and tells him there's a very expensive bottle of scotch in the mail for him. Why? Because with one ugly loss, and one very important Patriot sitting at home, the media will be like 'Terrell who?'

 

[Buckna]

I can see all that. Is it your understanding the Patriot offers are still on the table?J

I also understand that one of the contentious points of the relationship was that Chayut and Branch did not make a counteroffer to their original offers (or at least, the three year, 18 million dollar deal we've heard so much about that would end just as Branch turned 29 and would be able to get his big contract).

Minor point, Branch would be 30 when the 3 yr extension was up and turn 31 in July before the next season started. I also maintain the length of his next contract isn't all that important as no matter if took a 3yr extension or a 6yr deal, he would likely be restructuring/renegotiating heading into 2010 anyway. Right now he's still looking at 2 big paydays (this one and in ~2010.)I think one of Branch and his agent's worries we haven't discussed is if he gets no contract/no trade this year and the Pats franchise him once or even twice, he'll possibly be missing out on his 2nd big payday as by then he will be around 33. He still gets a payday, but likely much less than if he got his new contract right now and then a new one in 2010 when he's only 30/31. I think this is one reason why they were demanding the no franchise conscession from the Pats. Not only becuase it hurts his new contract, but would also hurt him down the line on what would likely be his last contract.

 

[Borat]

No disrespect to Brady, but let's see how well he ticks when 1st-string NFL defenses have a full week to gameplan for Ben Watson.

Okay... I like Ben Watson as much as the next guy, but let's try to keep things in perspective. Up to this point, I don't want to say Watson has been a complete nonfactor for the Patriots offense in years past... but this offense has done just fine without him even being on the field in previous seasons. I realize Branch and Givens have been around for the recent run of success, but those guys aren't exactly Randy Moss and Chad Johnson. Instead of looking at what the Pats don't have at WR this year as compared to years past, let's look at the entire offense as compared to years past. Tom Brady has won with less offensive talent around him than he has this season, and that was before he truly established himself as one of the top two QBs in the NFL. He is just now entering his prime. Now in 2001, he had Troy Brown, David Patten, and Fred Coleman as his top 3 WRs. Was Brown better at that point than anyone on this year's team, sans Branch? Undoubtedly. But this year, Brady has Graham, Watson, and Thomas at TE; in 2001, he had Rod Rutledge and Jermaine Wiggins (the latter of whom is a nice player now, but he has improved by leaps and bounds since then). He also has a significantly stronger offensive line now than he did then, and the Dillon/Maroney combination is obviously a lot stronger than having Atowain Smith as your main RB. And I'll say again, Brady is a better QB now than he was then.

Yes, Ben Watson is a sharp looking player, and yes, this could be his breakout year, but teams do have to gameplan around more than just Ben Watson.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Another question for you Patroit gurus: Let's hypothetically assume Branch is traded or holds out for the first 10 games.What's the offense look like then? Who gets the balls and how effective are they?J

I am on record as believing it is much more likely than not than Branch re-signs with NE withing the next week. However, accepting the premise that he does hold out for 10 weeks I will offer my 2 cents.What NE's offense has going for it without Branch is Tom Brady in his prime and a solid O-line that many (if not most) believe is the strngest line they have had in the BB era. The O-line had more than their share of injuries last year but they are deeper and much better prepared for that now. I am also of the opinion that their schedule is much easier than it has been in recent years, and in fact is one of the easiest in the league.There is no doubt that NE's offense will be productive and good, the only question is how productive and how good. (FTR, I honestly believe NE will have a top 5 offense with Branch, a healthy Dillon, Maroney & Jackson.) The key factor is how well they run the ball. If Maroney & Dillon are healthy then NE will have a strong running game and the loss of Branch is minimized. If Maroney's knee is more serious than we are now being led to believe and the load falls to Dillon, Faulk etc, then obviously the running game takes a big hit and the loss of Branch is going to hurt more.I interpret the fact that NE traded away Cobbs as an indication that Maroney's knee is probably not too serious.As for the look of NE's offense, I do not believe they would have spent 3rd and 4th round picks on TE's in and have them sit on the bench. I would expect their offense to feature the TE position (using 3 a lot and sometimes even 4) and a strong running game. That is why Dillon & Maroney are the key to the whole thing. I can't discount the fact that there are legitimate questions and concerns regarding NE's wr's. Troy Brown at this point in his career is a 4th or 5th string rec at best. Reche Caldwell looked all world in TC practice but more closely resembled Donald "I don't understand the playbook" Hayes during live game action. Caldwell seems to have all the tools but there is concern he may not have the apptitude (only time will tell). Bam Childress is a brightspot and could be a decent #3. The health of Chad Jackson who presumably will be returning at some point in the near future could also be an important factor. A healthy Jackson would be a big boost for a WR core that sorely needs it.In short, if NE can run the ball effectively then their TE heavy offense will still be VERY effective. If they can't run the ball (ala last year) then they are screwed.

 

[Garts]

Doug Gabriel is now a Pat.

 

[massraider]

Doug Gabriel arrives in New England.

 

[grouse]

So.

Likely timeline from here:

1. Trade - Likely a valid option with a 1-4 day timeframe (Coles for Branch? ). Once the season begins a trade becomes highly remote.

2. New Deal With Patriots - Likely to occur in or around the dates of his griveance(s) hearing (after week 1). Branch will almost assuredly lose these hearings.

3. Prolonged Holdout - Likely to last 10 weeks and trying to prognosticate what the conditions, motivations and politics will look, feel and smell like when Branch shows up then, is futile.

4. Branch Snaps - Shows up to play ball under existing contract and confirms that he and Tom Brady are lovers and can't live without one another.

Is that pretty much where we are at with this?

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

ProFootballTalk.com is asking the same question that I posed yesterday. WHY would the Seahawks want Branch? I say D-Jax isn't ready to play - they also throw Nate Burleson's underwhelming play as a possible reason:

WHY WOULD THE 'HAWKS WANT BRANCH?

One point we've yet to address is why in the world would the Seahawks want to land Deion Branch?

In our view, it's evidence either that receiver Darrell Jackson's knee will limit him significantly in 2006, or that receiver Nate Burleson isn't working out to be the player that they thought they were getting.

Burleson was by all appearances a ###-for-tat signing by the Seahawks, who pursued the former Vikings receiver with a poison-pilled contract offer after the Vikings pulled a poison-pill caper on the 'Hawks to land All-Pro guard Steve Hutchinson. There have been indications that Burleson is having difficulty picking up the Seahawks' offense.

The fact that the Seahawks would put so much on the table for Branch at this stage of the offseason also has prompted some to question why in the world the team didn't get Hutchinson re-signed, because it surely wasn't about cap room. Since Hutchinson left, the team has acquired linebacker Julian Peterson and Burleson via big-money deals, and then they got in line to drop even more money into Branch's pockets.

 

[nerangers]

So.Likely timeline from here:1. Trade - Likely a valid option with a 1-4 day timeframe (Coles for Branch? ). Once the season begins a trade becomes highly remote.2. New Deal With Patriots - Likely to occur in or around the dates of his griveance(s) hearing (after week 1). Branch will almost assuredly lose these hearings.3. Prolonged Holdout - Likely to last 10 weeks and trying to prognosticate what the conditions, motivations and politics will look, feel and smell like when Branch shows up then, is futile.4. Branch Snaps - Shows up to play ball under existing contract and confirms that he and Tom Brady are lovers and can't live without one another.Is that pretty much where we are at with this?

Can I add a #5 to your timeline? Branch comes back Week 10 only to ride the bench the remainder of the season (same kind of deal with Keyshaun with TB and Owens with the Eagles)

 

[Guru]

Does anyone feel that the reason the compensation for Gabriel has not been revealed is because Branch is heading to Oakland? I could see Davis pulling this off.

 

[Borat]

So.

Likely timeline from here:

1. Trade - Likely a valid option with a 1-4 day timeframe (Coles for Branch? ). Once the season begins a trade becomes highly remote.

2. New Deal With Patriots - Likely to occur in or around the dates of his griveance(s) hearing (after week 1). Branch will almost assuredly lose these hearings.

3. Prolonged Holdout - Likely to last 10 weeks and trying to prognosticate what the conditions, motivations and politics will look, feel and smell like when Branch shows up then, is futile.

4. Branch Snaps - Shows up to play ball under existing contract and confirms that he and Tom Brady are lovers and can't live without one another.

Is that pretty much where we are at with this?

Good information here.

 

[AB in DC]

One of the site owners just made (and then deleted) a post saying that being a Super Bowl MVP doesn't mean anything, unless you're a fan of their team. Not sure why it was deleted, but I'm going to answer it anyway

If you remember the contracts that Larry Brown and Dwight Smith received after their MVPs, I think you'll see that the Super Bowl MVP award is valued by some teams. As I recall, both players were way overpaid based on their actual talent or production, but the MVP award clearly made a difference in their valuations.

 

[franks&beans]

No disrespect to Brady, but let's see how well he ticks when 1st-string NFL defenses have a full week to gameplan for Ben Watson.

Don’t forget, these same NFL defenses prepared for another New England QB that only had a TE as an open and Ben Coates could not be stopped for many years. Unfortunately that was the only thing that went well for the team during those times.

 

[a_rackowski]

NEs offense will pick you apart if you center your gameplan around one person. They dont need any #1 Wr on this team as they have proved by putting Deion Branch on the field as the #1 when his skills are that of a #2 at best.

 

[Borat]

No disrespect to Brady, but let's see how well he ticks when 1st-string NFL defenses have a full week to gameplan for Ben Watson.

Don’t forget, these same NFL defenses prepared for another New England QB that only had a TE as an open and Ben Coates could not be stopped for many years. Unfortunately that was the only thing that went well for the team during those times.

They made a Super Bowl during the Coates era.

 

[franks&beans]

No disrespect to Brady, but let's see how well he ticks when 1st-string NFL defenses have a full week to gameplan for Ben Watson.

Don’t forget, these same NFL defenses prepared for another New England QB that only had a TE as an open and Ben Coates could not be stopped for many years. Unfortunately that was the only thing that went well for the team during those times.

They made a Super Bowl during the Coates era.

That is true, but I was referring to when Coates was the focal point of the offense. Terry Glenn and Curtis Martin were the focal points in 96, not Coates. I know that Coates was still Bledsoe’s guy when he needed yards, but he was not the only weapon.