cantstop1999
Footballguy
I move him up to very close to Romo if not equal. What do you think with Shockey added to the team ?
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D.Brees How much do you move him up? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter cantstop1999
- Start date
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
My question is, how much does Colston move down?
Assuming they sign him....
Assuming they sign him....
cantstop1999
Footballguy
he is signed as far as i know, and i move colston up not down ,how will they now double team colston now????
cantstop1999
Footballguy
Dode you are fried to the max !!!
I kept Brees and Colston the same. I had Brees as QB4, behind Brady, Peyton,and Romo. The only change in my rankings might be expanding the distance between Brees and QB5.
cantstop1999
Footballguy
Gopher State
Footballguy
very good
I see shockey taking at least 3 TD's away from Colston, so Colston has to move down a few slots.Brees stays at #4Nemesis Enforcer
Footballguy
Brees did not move for me, he is still at QB3 in my rankings. Colston did not move either. Who I am struggling with is Bush. I mean someone is going to have to lose some targets and I keep thinking that Shockey may eat into his. I see him sliding down a little.
Same here. Brees is #3 and not affected. I would move bush down though
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
QB2. I prefer him to Manning, as the Colts have a good defense and they run too much these days for my liking.
The Saints passed 101 more times than Indy last season, and they should throw even more this season.
The Saints passed 101 more times than Indy last season, and they should throw even more this season.
gianmarco
Footballguy
I respectfully disagree as I see Shockey adding at least 3 TDs to Brees.very goodI see shockey taking at least 3 TD's away from Colston, so Colston has to move down a few slots.Brees stays at #4
hauser42
Footballguy
Brees should stay around the 3-4 spot for QBs.
He should get more points in distance scoring though. Schockey on the field should allow for more deep passes on the outside with less safety help.
I would agree that the guy that might get hurt the most is Bush as the little swing pass could be come pass ot Shockey out in the flat or over the middle this year.
He should get more points in distance scoring though. Schockey on the field should allow for more deep passes on the outside with less safety help.
I would agree that the guy that might get hurt the most is Bush as the little swing pass could be come pass ot Shockey out in the flat or over the middle this year.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Billy Miller and Eric Johnson had over 700 yards and 4 TDs last year. Not like they were getting nothing out of their tight end position before. Slight uptick in Brees but i think people are overestimating the effect on his numbers.
Steady Mooobin
Footballguy
Now imagine Shockey could catch.
Mr. Pink
Footballguy
I'm in this camp. Coston had 28 red zone targets last year, with 18 receptions....10 for TDs. Shockey may adversely impact Colston more than he positively7 impacts Brees. I still have Brees as QB4.very goodI see shockey taking at least 3 TD's away from Colston, so Colston has to move down a few slots.Brees stays at #4
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
I agree..Brees was going to have a good year regardless, but Shockey will only cut into other receptions and TDs. Instead of Colston getting all the looks inside the ten, Shockey is going get his share.
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gianmarco
Footballguy
All of you saying it's just a reallocation of targets, consider this example.Let's say you replace Devin Hester and Brandon Lloyd with Larry Fitzgerald and A. Boldin. Now, I know Grossman/Orton is nowhere near Brees, but is it simply a reallocation of passes? Or is it possible there may be some improvement? Grossman/Orton could throw the exact same # of balls, but I guarantee his overall passing #'s and TDs will be higher on the same # of balls with Fitz/Boldin than with Hester/Lloyd. You simply can't compare Ernie Conwell/Eric Johnson/David Patten/Lance Moore to a healthy Shockey. He's better than all of them.
I understand that Brees already throws a very large # of attempts and does quite well with them, but Shockey, when healthy, is simply a MUCH better passing option as a #2 (or #3 if you count Bush/Colston), than they've had. He's simply better than their previous TE's and #2 WR's. Brees doesn't have to throw more. Just that Shockey will probably do more with the balls thrown to him than those that previously went to those other guys. I'm not saying it may be a substantial difference for Brees, but calling it a reallocation when he makes a large improvement over their previous #2 WR/TE option doesn't make much sense. He's going to outproduce those previous starters by a good bit. Unless Brees is capped out and those #'s eat into Colston and/or Bush by a good bit, most everyone on that passing team stands to improve, even if only by a small amount.
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
For me, it's really about the offensive style that NO follows that takes some opportunity away from Colston. We've seen them use Bush in a variety of offensive roles to help shake up opposing Ds with different looks and packages. Whether you feel Bush has excelled in this role stat-wise or not, he's used in a pretty dynamic offense as compared to, say, Denver's straight-forward zone block philosphy.What Shockey brings to the table adds to this dynamic offense -- he's a solid downfield blocker, but more importantly, he's a good route runner who can steamroll DBs if he gets into isolation against them in a seam. He also runs fairly decent long routes as well.By moving Bush around, and even using him in two-back sets with Deuce, this creates a lot of opportunities to exploit holes in the D, either for Shockey lining up as a receiver, coming off the line on block-and-release plays, etc. This is where Shockey can benefit the team more than Colston.Colston's biggest strength is downfield -- he's huge and there are not many DBs he can't outmuscle. I do think Shockey's presence on the field will lessen the double-teams he gets, but overall, the dynamic nature of the NO offence in general, and what Shockey can add to this in specific, makes me think that Colston's overall role will be more limited in terms of plays that come his way.This does not kill his value, mind you -- I'd say a readjustment of 2-3 TDs and a few hundred yards. Not disastrous, but enough to move him out of the Top 10, IMHO.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Drew Brees set the NFL record for completions in a season last year.
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I would say the odds are something like 6:1 that New Orleans throws fewer passes in 2008 than in 2007.
livetogo4sub4
Footballguy
I wouldn't say Brees is QB2 yet but I do like him more than Romo. I own Manning and Brees in similar leagues and the Shockey trade definitely allows me to feel better about Brees. My personal knock against Romo is that TO is getting old and Dallas has done little to prepare for his exit. In dynasty leagues especially I am weary of Romo because of this. New Orleans lacks a compliment across the field from Colston at WR2 but adding Shockey should keep the passing numbers high. Assuming Brees avoids a horrid start like last year I think QB2 or QB3 is where he'll finish. Indy does run the ball too much compared to how much they used to pass. Plus I think the Indy coaches are afraid to over utilize vets like Wayne, Harrison, and Clark in fear of injury like Harrison saw last year. I love my Colts but I'll take the 100 more passing attempts by the Saints compared to the Colts from a fantasy perspective.
-jb-
Footballguy
The 2007 Saints threw the 3rd most passes in NFL history, and only three less passes than the 2nd most in NFL history.The 2007 Saints had THE MOST completions in NFL history.
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Andy Herron
Footballguy
I usually just work with tiers, in which case he remains the same as a top 5.
Let's not forget the Saints still have to prove they'll have a formidable running game for balance.
Let's not forget the Saints still have to prove they'll have a formidable running game for balance.
Afro Samurai
Footballguy
I'd drop him regardless. The Saints defense looks like it should be significantly better than last year. Probably better than it has been in quite a few years.
The biggest influence on Brees' season could very easily be Mike McKenzie. If he dosn't come back to his previous form, that pass D is going to be terrible, leading to a bunch of attempts for Brees.
Where I seem to disagree with some of you is that Brees can't improve on his totals. Sure he threw a ton of passes last season, but he was largely ineffective for the first 6 games.
232 yards a game and 5 TDs
Compare that to his last 10 games.
303 yards a game and 23 TDs.
If Brees is forced to throw alot of passes again, he should easily add to his gaudy '07 stats. The addition of Shockey if huge, regardless of the stats put up by Johnson/Miller, and should help aid in the emergence of Robert Meachem, whose name seems to have been absent from people who might benefit from the trade. The #2 WR is going to have a lot of room to operate.
Where I seem to disagree with some of you is that Brees can't improve on his totals. Sure he threw a ton of passes last season, but he was largely ineffective for the first 6 games.
232 yards a game and 5 TDs
Compare that to his last 10 games.
303 yards a game and 23 TDs.
If Brees is forced to throw alot of passes again, he should easily add to his gaudy '07 stats. The addition of Shockey if huge, regardless of the stats put up by Johnson/Miller, and should help aid in the emergence of Robert Meachem, whose name seems to have been absent from people who might benefit from the trade. The #2 WR is going to have a lot of room to operate.
shining path
:prettyplease:
Move him up more than a smidge, but less than a skosh.
-jb-
Footballguy
let's not get crazy now.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I'd like to break this down a little. Seeing as how a smidge is 3.62 times greater than a smidgen, and according to the Queenslandbury's de-decimalised system of measurement, a skosh is 8/11 of a whit, what you really mean is that Brees' ADP will move down by an entire tittle.Do I have that right?
MCguidance
Footballguy
I have always thought that a better defense allows for more offensive opportunities? Maybe I am entirely wrong. If the Saints D is better, I would think an uptick in stats may even be possible.
shining path
:prettyplease:
I'm a scientist, guy, I only know metric.
Shermanator
Footballguy
Angus82
Footballguy
There is still only one ball. If you liked Brees before, this trade doesn't change anything. It is just a different player catching passes. It may bring up Shockey's value but I don't see a real change in Drew's value.
gianmarco
Footballguy
There is one ball. But what Randy Moss can do with the ball in his hand and what Roscoe Parrish can do with it are 2 entirely different things.What Shockey can do with the ball vs. what Eric Johnson/Billy Miller can do are 2 entirely different things.
Angus82
Footballguy
You will have to explain to me what those things are. Shockey has never caught 75 passes in a season. Eric Johnson/Billy Miller did exactly that last year. Drew Brees threw 652 passes (Most in the league) with a 67.5 comp pct. last year. Unless you think that Drew is going to complete 700 passes or that Jeremy will be the best TE ever your Moss to Parrish comparison doesn't wash. The Saints are getting in one player exactly what they had in two (If you disregard Shockey's injury and that 74 catches are his career best.)
bcr8f
Footballguy
I would guess most of those were dump offs. Neither can threaten the middle of the field and safeties as Shockey can.
gianmarco
Footballguy
I don't understand why this point is not getting understood. I do NOT think Brees is going to complete 700 passes. I'm not saying he has to throw any more balls than he already has. I'm saying the balls he DOES throw to the TE are going to net better results. Again, if I throw 10 balls to Moss and 10 balls to Parrish, do you think they will end up with the same # of yards and same # of TDs because they caught the same # of balls? Moss is simply going to do more with the same # of balls. That's what I'm suggesting about Shockey.Now, admittedly, I looked back and Billy Miller's and Eric Johnson's #'s after you posted and they were actually quite efficient and productive. I was expecting a much lower YPR. So, looking back at that, I agree now that Brees #'s probably won't improve significantly in terms of simply reallocating those TE balls from Miller/Johnson to Shockey. But, at the same time, I still think the point is being missed that those expecting an uptick in Brees's #'s aren't expecting MORE balls to be thrown, just more done with the balls that are. I would also argue that I would not expect Miller/Johnson to replicate those #'s and that Shockey will help that offense more than just putting up the same #'s as he will command more defensive respect and he blocks better.
Thanks for making me look at Miller and Johnson's #'s since I didn't really pay attention to this as I thought they would be rather insignificant. They were quite productive on the field last year as a tandem.
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Spike
Footballguy
Spike
Footballguy
You're off by a jot.
-jb-
Footballguy
I think what you're saying, correct me if I'm wrong, is that Shockey will bring in a better ypc than the Miller/Johnson combo.So, let's break that down:gianmarco said:
- Shockey has a career ypc average of 11.4.
- Eric Johnson and Billy Miller combined for 75/706 last year for a ypc of 9.4.
- If we assume that the Saints TEs catch the same amount of passes, Brees would see an increase of 150 yards (11.4 * 75 = 856, 856 - 706 = 150).
- That would increase Brees's production by 6 points. Based on Dodds' projection (326.6), that's a 1.8% increase in production.
- Let's throw three TDs at it (which would tie Shockey's career best) for ####s and giggles...now you're looking at an increase of 18 points. Based on Dodds' projection, that's a 5.5% increase in production.
It's obviously risky to use LY stats and projections as baselines, but it gets us there in terms of carrying on the conversation.
Is that where your head's at?
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Essentially, yes, and that's a great breakdown. Up above, I stated that I don't think Brees's #'s would go up significantly, but a small uptick is reasonable. I kept seeing the reason why it wouldn't is because it's just a reallocation and it's not. I am actually surprised that EJ/BM had that high of a ypc as I would have expected the difference between them and Shockey as larger and admittedly hadn't checked. But, there is still a difference. I think the #'s you put up are quite reasonable. Is it an earth-shattering change? Not at all, but I think the attention he gets plus how he will arguably have a better QB, I think everyone's #'s could see a slight uptick without requiring more thrown passes as some continue to insist.
