It's not fair to call him a bust yet. But......it's not looking too good for him, he's had some horrible drops. You know its funny, we all know Al Davis has this obsession with speed, yet there are so many young players like Chris Johnson, Percy Harvin and Johnny Knox that have ridiculous speed that the Raiders could have drafted but didn't. Seems that Al has lost his ability to identify the "good" speed guys from the "bad" ones.
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Darrius Heyward-Bey (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Knobs
- Start date
I'll pull out some stats of my own tonight or tomorrow. Also, the third year receiver theory has been debunked.
Avery
Footballguy
I'm so tired of hearing about this phantom theory like the 3rd year is some magical epiphany for WRs.
The Comedian
Footballguy
It was debunked that WR's can just as easily break out in the 2nd and 4th year as well as the 3rd year, but this doesn't have anything to do with a WR being a bust after 9 games.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
When did this discussion become about 3rd year WR's? This is about WR's after 9 games. I hope those are the stats you pull. And I'm not even saying he isn't going to be a bust. I'll concede it sure isn't looking pretty for him. Dude has been horrific. But making any definitive conclusion about ANY player through 9 games of his career is absurd.
Avery
Footballguy
I'm not making any definitive claims. I don't think anything is ever definitive until the player's career is over. But there's nothing wrong with making projections after a set period of time (that period of time is where we all differ). I really believe a player doesn't typically alter their catch percentage by any significant margin from rookie year to next, though the stats may very well prove me wrong. I'm having trouble finding career catch percentages right now but will keep Googling. Does anyone know of a good site I can pull my info from?
I don't think you should observe "hasn't" and conclude "can't" so quickly.Lots of rookie WRs have problems catching the ball. Jerry Rice, for example, had an awful lot of drops as a rookie. Charlie Joiner was not known for being sure-handed early in his career.
Catching the ball is largely a matter of concentration. When you have to think about your splits, your pre-snap and post-snap reads (and possibly converting your pattern based on those reads), your footwork, etc., you have many fewer brain cells available to devote to focusing on the football. When you're thinking about your feet, it's harder to watch the ball into your hands.
When the other stuff becomes second-nature, catching the ball becomes a lot easier.
I'm not saying that DHB won't be a complete bust. I am saying that you shouldn't conclude that he'll be a complete bust just because he's dropping everything in sight as a rookie.
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Maurile,
See the post above yours. It's still entirely possible DHB will be quite the success in the NFL. I do believe the probabilities of him being good go up/down based upon a wr's early catch percentage.
I'm still looking for a place to find that stuff as I think it could actually be an interesting study.
See the post above yours. It's still entirely possible DHB will be quite the success in the NFL. I do believe the probabilities of him being good go up/down based upon a wr's early catch percentage.
I'm still looking for a place to find that stuff as I think it could actually be an interesting study.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
If you do not have any stats or evidence, then what leads you to believe that?
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Hines WardOcho Cinco
Coles
The list can go on
Search for WR's that have already retired and you'll notice even more.
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Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Sidney Rice
I'm glad people are discussing this. I think it's a good topic and with the way the people are replying in here he may be a good buy low option.
I'm curious, do any of you remember how high he was projected to go in the draft? I thought it was top 25 and i remember alot of people being surprised, myself included when DHB was taken ahead of Crabtree.
I have a feeling that we would be having more patience with DHB if he was drafted buy a team with an elite Qb coach or front office. I would like to hear peoples thoughts on what they would feel his prospects would be currently if he ended up getting drafted by Pit, Ind, N.E., Bal, Mia, NYG or Phil?
I remember back to our startup keep 10 draft back in 2003, Reggie Wayne going into his 3rd year even with Peyton Manning at qb lasted till the 143rd pick as he hadn't showed much to that point.
In 2007 with 140 players already kept on rosters Roddy White lasted all the way till the 113th pick.
Obviously I'm not going to sit here and project DHB to turn into those players. But I agree with some of the others that think it is way too soon to declare him a bust at this point.
When can we declare him a bust? If DHB continues to falter after he A) gets more comfortable in the offense, B),gets better more consistent qb play and maybe most importantly C) ends up with a better organization then I think it would finally be safe to call him a bust.
I'm curious, do any of you remember how high he was projected to go in the draft? I thought it was top 25 and i remember alot of people being surprised, myself included when DHB was taken ahead of Crabtree.
I have a feeling that we would be having more patience with DHB if he was drafted buy a team with an elite Qb coach or front office. I would like to hear peoples thoughts on what they would feel his prospects would be currently if he ended up getting drafted by Pit, Ind, N.E., Bal, Mia, NYG or Phil?
I remember back to our startup keep 10 draft back in 2003, Reggie Wayne going into his 3rd year even with Peyton Manning at qb lasted till the 143rd pick as he hadn't showed much to that point.
In 2007 with 140 players already kept on rosters Roddy White lasted all the way till the 113th pick.
Obviously I'm not going to sit here and project DHB to turn into those players. But I agree with some of the others that think it is way too soon to declare him a bust at this point.
When can we declare him a bust? If DHB continues to falter after he A) gets more comfortable in the offense, B),gets better more consistent qb play and maybe most importantly C) ends up with a better organization then I think it would finally be safe to call him a bust.
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I dont need to wait a couple of years to call this guy a bust. He is horrible. Aside from his 40 time you have to ask yourself what did the Raiders see in this guy? Words just can't describe how bad this entire organization is. If it were any other "franchise" owned and operated by Al Davis (Mc Donalds, Subway, Car Dealership) they would have been out of business 10 years ago.The problem being there are so many die hard Raider fans that they keep drinking the Kool Aid and buying tickets and merchandise for this franchise and lining Al's pockets with coin. He has a monkey making the picks on draft day obviously. No sane football man or for that matter sane high school football player would have drafted DHB over Crabtree or Machlin or possibly even others. The only way this team improves is Al Davis dies, the team planes goes down in a horrible crash with no survivors and they start from scratch.
I personally hope Al lives another 50 years and the team plane has no mechanical problems.
I personally hope Al lives another 50 years and the team plane has no mechanical problems.
Englishteacher
Footballguy
He's got good hands.....
for a cornerback....
maybe that's what they should switch him to.... utilize the one thing he has.... speed
for a cornerback....
maybe that's what they should switch him to.... utilize the one thing he has.... speed
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=463152
so Meachem is a bust also? that's what most said this past offseason
so Meachem is a bust also? that's what most said this past offseason
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The Comedian
Footballguy
He's going conclusion first, find data later.
strong
Footballguy
this is also why they drafted asomugha and fabian washington. one's one of the top three corners in the game and the others is more than serviceable for the ravens
FavreCo
Footballguy
I still say Meachem is a bust. Just because a guy catches a few TD's doesn't make his some sort of star. Picked in the 1st round, with Drew Brees as QB, and he can't even muster up an average of 2 catches a week. One would expect more out of a 1st round pick after 2 years. He gets in the game for a few plays and the defense could care less so he gets covered by the worst defender on the field....if at all.Bey can't catch a football. you can't teach hands. You got them or you don't and he has some of the worst hands in NFL WR history.Unwrittenlaw said:
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Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
From what I've seen, there are a lot of skills that WRs can grow into as they gain NFL experience.
Catching the football is not one of them.
I don't know if I've ever seen a guy with bad hands get good ones once he's in the league.
Route running? Yes. Coverage recognition? Yes. Catching the ball? No.
Catching the football is not one of them.
I don't know if I've ever seen a guy with bad hands get good ones once he's in the league.
Route running? Yes. Coverage recognition? Yes. Catching the ball? No.
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I simply cannot remember a wr ever having terrible hands and later being able to snag everything thrown his way. I think it makes intuitive sense.He's going conclusion first, find data later.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
I'm not making a case FOR DHB's hands, just questioning what you've seen that tells you that? Most drops in the NFL:Rank Player Team Stats 1t Marques Colston NO 7 1t Tim Hightower Ari 7 1t Santonio Holmes Pit 7 1t Terrell Owens Buf 7 5t Antonio Gates SD 6 5t Ted Ginn Jr. Mia 6 5t Louis Murphy Oak 6 5t Bobby Wade KC 6 9t Donnie Avery StL 5 9t Dwayne Bowe KC 5 9t Michael Clayton TB 5 9t Daniel Coats Cin 5 9t DeSean Jackson Phi 5 9t Michael Jenkins Atl 5 9t Dustin Keller NYJ 5 9t Mohamed Massaquoi Cle 5 9t LeSean McCoy Phi 5 9t Randy McMichael StL 5 9t Robert Royal Cle 5 9t Sean Ryan KC 5 9t Chansi Stuckey Cle 5 9t Chester Taylor Min 5 9t Roddy White Atl 5 I don't know how many DHB has but it's less than 5. Also, something that's not accounted for is that most of the names on that list have been targeted a TON more than him, I realize that. But I think it would also be fair to factor in that with a QB like Russell, there's a better chance that the pass is close enough to hit the hands and count as a drop - but still high, back shoulder, knee high, coming 100 mph on a simple slip screen, etc. I don't think it's an accident that most of the guys on this list happen to be catching passes from young, inexperienced and/or crappy QB's.
FavreCo
Footballguy
Not even sure that pick will ever be topped. Worst #1 ever. Hell, worst ever.
FavreCo
Footballguy
Russell dropped a pass right in his breadbasket from 50 yards out. He failed miserably. Comparisons to Williamson's deep skills were evident. Add in the fact that Jamarcus sucks so bad that he may never repeat that toss in his career don't bode well for Bey. A QB that can't throw paired witha WR that can't catch. Nice.The 2nd drop, flip, bat, whenever the hell that was by Bey just adds to his legendary status.
Sunday Devil
Footballguy
Hester?
lyon812
Footballguy
According to this link, he has 3: http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/leaders...k=232&year=Still interested in anyone that has information of what constitutes a statistical drop.
Hester is a guy who hadn't ever played much wr. That's a lot different than a player who has spent years and years learning the position.
TLEF316
Footballguy
not fair to call him a bust right now. While i think he stinks and WILL be a bust, he's playing for Oakland and has Russel throwing to him. No rookie WR (let alone someone as unpolished as DHB) could do anything in that situation.
That being said, its just a matter of time. He isnt going to be very good.
edit: at what point do draft picks flat out refuse to sign with the Raiders? I'd rather take 10X the heat that Crabtree took than sign with that Franchise (as long as Davis is alive)
That being said, its just a matter of time. He isnt going to be very good.
edit: at what point do draft picks flat out refuse to sign with the Raiders? I'd rather take 10X the heat that Crabtree took than sign with that Franchise (as long as Davis is alive)
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FantasyTrader
Footballguy
You're reaching. He's dropped three passes. The 2nd drop added to his "legendary" status of three career drops.
FavreCo
Footballguy
3 drops, how many catches? Case closed.Oh, and you are wrong on the correct number of drops. Count them here. Incluedes 2 on week 1 MNF vs the Chargers.FantasyTrader said:You're reaching. He's dropped three passes. The 2nd drop added to his "legendary" status of three career drops.
http://www.rotoworld.com/Content/playerpag...NFL&id=5093
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cstu
Footballguy
Hard to label him a bust quite yet and I think he's a buy very low right now. I'm sure some owners would be willing to cut bait for a 2nd round pick. The Raiders need to bench Russell (since they can't cut him) and let him be a back up for a year or two. Right now any QB they sign would be better than Russell.
FantasyTrader
Footballguy
Again, I'm not arguing that he won't be a bust - only that it's an insufficient sample size and possibly the crappiest situation imaginable to so quickly write him off.
