Debunking fantasy myths... (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

A myth we've probably all heard a lot this week, that favre is bad in domes, was just recently and totally debunked by a Nygus with cold, hard facts, showing that Favre's numbers over the past 4 years are actually pretty good in domes.

ETA stats since 2002...Courtesy of NYGus...taken from the current Favre thread

2002 @NOR 270yds and 2 TD's/ @DET 357yds and 3 TDS/@ MIN 296 2 TDS

2003 @STL 268 2 TDS/ @ MIN 194 3TDS/@DET 296 2 TDS

2004 @ INDY 396 4TDS/@DET 257 2 TDS/@HOU 383 1 TD/@MIN 365 3TDS

2005 @ DET 201 0TDS/@MIN 315 2 TDS/@ATL 252 1 TD

AVG IN DOMES SINCE 2002 296 YDS/ 2TDS.

Any other myths out there that don't jive with the facts? I'd like to see some numbers on the MNF stud theory (that somehow playing Monday night makes players perform above average, getting a lot of that on whether or not to play Bush)

INTs included 04-05

complete dome history past two years

Dome games 2005:

(yards-td-int)

@DET 201-0-2

@MIN 315-2-0

@ATL 252-1-1

2004:

@IND 360-4-0

@DET 257-2-0

@HOU 383-1-2

@MIN 365-3-1

 

[doughboydeluxe]

It's a myth that Oakland has an NFL team.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

you forgot to mention all the INT's that Favre throws.

in my leagues that's -2

 

[Snotbubbles]

Cadillac Williams is better than Ronnie Brown.

 

[Trap Play]

you forgot to mention all the INT's that Favre throws.

in my leagues that's -2

Exactly, I was just about to type the exact same thing myself.

 

[NYGus]

you forgot to mention all the INT's that Favre throws.

in my leagues that's -2

Favre threw a bunch of INT's LAST year. He's averages 17 per season for 15 years. Thats just over 1 a game. I can live with that, minus or no minus.And actually if you count his 1st season where he threw 2 INTS and average it over 16 seasons he's only thrown 16.1 ints per season to date.

And if you really wanna break it down further and remove his 1st season and this season --he has averaged 28 TD's and 18 INTS per season for 14 seasons.

Stop Hatin', you people make me laugh.

 

[Trap Play]

I'd like to see the breakdown of interceptions Farve throws in dome games and what percentage that accounted for over that year. I think you'd start to see some basis for this 'myth' then.

 

[code]

Not sure where this thread is going, but some "facts" for you...

Fact: Brett Favre is currently on pace to tie the all time Passing TDs record this season (trailing by 21, averagine 1.5 per game)

Fact: Brett Favre is currently on pace to break the all time Interceptions record this season (trailing by 19, averaging 1.5 per game)

 

[Hamstring]

See Favre's playoff games in domes. Probably a big ouch. Lots of yards does not mean he has a good game.

 

[Slum Lord]

See Favre's playoff games in domes. Probably a big ouch. Lots of yards does not mean he has a good game.

What most people dont realize when they talk about Favre and domes is that every year he plays 1 game in the Metrodome and 1 game in the Silverdone/whateverthehell they call thier new dome. 5-6 years in a row the Packers went to Dallas and all those road games in domes against teams they played against every year yeah, they had a bad record. When those teams played at Lambeau that record was reversed. And by the way, when Favre won the superbowl, it was a ...... DOME. kthnxbye

 

[Bob Sacamano]

you forgot to mention all the INT's that Favre throws.

in my leagues that's -2

Favre threw a bunch of INT's LAST year. He's averages 17 per season for 15 years. Thats just over 1 a game. I can live with that, minus or no minus.And actually if you count his 1st season where he threw 2 INTS and average it over 16 seasons he's only thrown 16.1 ints per season to date.

And if you really wanna break it down further and remove his 1st season and this season --he has averaged 28 TD's and 18 INTS per season for 14 seasons.

Stop Hatin', you people make me laugh.

This is VERY helpful. I'm going to draft 1994-2004 Favre in all my leagues next year.

 

[doughboydeluxe]

See Favre's playoff games in domes. Probably a big ouch. Lots of yards does not mean he has a good game.

What most people dont realize when they talk about Favre and domes is that every year he plays 1 game in the Metrodome and 1 game in the Silverdone/whateverthehell they call thier new dome. 5-6 years in a row the Packers went to Dallas and all those road games in domes against teams they played against every year yeah, they had a bad record. When those teams played at Lambeau that record was reversed. And by the way, when Favre won the superbowl, it was a ...... DOME. kthnxbye

Dallas doesn't have a dome.

 

[posty]

2002 @NOR 270yds and 2 TD's/ @DET 357yds and 3 TDS/@ MIN 296 2 TDS2003 @STL 268 2 TDS/ @ MIN 194 3TDS/@DET 296 2 TDS2004 @ INDY 396 4TDS/@DET 257 2 TDS/@HOU 383 1 TD/@MIN 365 3TDS2005 @ DET 201 0TDS/@MIN 315 2 TDS/@ATL 252 1 TD

2002 (1-2) : @NO - Loss; @DET - Win; @MIN - Loss2003 (1-2) : @STL - Loss; @MIN - Win; @DET - Loss2004 (3-1) : @IND - Loss; @DET - Win; @HOU - Win; @MIN - Win2005 (1-2) : @DET - Loss; @MIN - Loss; @ATL - Win

 

[SickThing]

One thing that bugs me is owners that are tempted by doubling points from playing the QB and WR from the same team. The risk if they don't come through is as great as the reward if they do. It sets you up with an all or nothing type scenario.

Try to ignore this temptation and just do what makes more sense, which is playing your best players. If that happens they end being from the same team, then fine. That could well happen during a good matchup week.

 

[moleculo]

you forgot to mention all the INT's that Favre throws.

in my leagues that's -2

Favre threw a bunch of INT's LAST year. He's averages 17 per season for 15 years. Thats just over 1 a game. I can live with that, minus or no minus.And actually if you count his 1st season where he threw 2 INTS and average it over 16 seasons he's only thrown 16.1 ints per season to date.

And if you really wanna break it down further and remove his 1st season and this season --he has averaged 28 TD's and 18 INTS per season for 14 seasons.

Stop Hatin', you people make me laugh.

This is VERY helpful. I'm going to draft 1994-2004 Favre in all my leagues next year.

too bad 2006 Favre is the only one available. I'm bettin 2006 Favre will be closer to 2005 Favre than 1997 Favre.

 

[Willowdoc]

One thing that bugs me is owners that are tempted by doubling points from playing the QB and WR from the same team. The risk if they don't come through is as great as the reward if they do. It sets you up with an all or nothing type scenario. Try to ignore this temptation and just do what makes more sense, which is playing your best players. If that happens they end being from the same team, then fine. That could well happen during a good matchup week.

I play in several leagues that pay off the highest scorer for the week. in those situations this strategy is an excellent choice.

 

[dgreen]

you forgot to mention all the INT's that Favre throws.

in my leagues that's -2

In the 13 games listed above, he threw 16 INTs.Distribution of INT

0 INT = 3 games

1 INT = 6 games

2 INT = 2 games

3 INT = 2 games

 

[Steve in Minneapolis]

Edited with the INT data

2002 @NOR 270yds and 2 TD's/1 INT @DET 357yds and 3 TDS/1 INT @ MIN 296 2 TDS / 3 INT

2003 @STL 268 2 TDS/ 1 INT @ MIN 194 3TDS/1 INT @DET 296 2 TDS / 3 INT

2004 @ INDY 396 4TDS/ 0 INT @DET 257 2 TDS/ 0 INTs @HOU 383 1 TD/ 2 INTs @MIN 365 3TDS / 1 INT

2005 @ DET 201 0TDS/ 2 INT @MIN 315 2 TDS/ 0 INT @ATL 252 1 TD / 1 INT

AVG IN DOMES SINCE 2002 296 YDS/ 2TDS 1 INT

Other stats of note: A disproportionate number of his INTs USED to came in the dome games:

2002 18% of games in a dome, 37% of INTs in the dome games (3/16 games, 6/16 INTs)

2003 18% of games in a dome, 24% of INTs in the dome games (3/16 games, 5/21 INTs)

But the last two years he has been better:

2004 25% of games in a dome, 17% of INTs in the dome games (4/16 games, 3/17 INTs)

2005 18% of games in a dome, 10% of INTs in the dome games (3/16 games, 3/29 INTs)

 

[sholditch]

Jesus H Christ you people are touchy. I put his ints in there. Sure wish I had used a different example to start off what I hoped would be a useful thread.

 

[dgreen]

Jesus H Christ you people are touchy. I put his ints in there. Sure wish I had used a different example to start off what I hoped would be a useful thread.

So, your primary interest is to debunk some myths and then you respond like this when people claim you aren't showing the full picture?

 

[sholditch]

read again: example. And I did show the full picture as soon as someone pointed it out. But ragging on one missing part of the picture of the EXAMPLE completely misses the point of this thread and makes it useless. I was trying to add something that would actually help people out. One guy on here got it and posted something useful. Everyone else #####ed about Brett's ints not being included in, again, the example.

 

[sholditch]

One thing that bugs me is owners that are tempted by doubling points from playing the QB and WR from the same team. The risk if they don't come through is as great as the reward if they do. It sets you up with an all or nothing type scenario. Try to ignore this temptation and just do what makes more sense, which is playing your best players. If that happens they end being from the same team, then fine. That could well happen during a good matchup week.

I play in several leagues that pay off the highest scorer for the week. in those situations this strategy is an excellent choice.

these being the only posts thus far that got it.here's what I was hoping might happen:Let's take a look t randy moss's games from last year and compare his Sunday games with other gamesSunday (13 games): 43 catches for 687 yards and five TDsOther (3 games): 17 for 318 and 3 TDsover a third of his total TDs and almost a third of his yardage came in 3 non-sunday games. That tells us that Randy does indeed, at least in 05, get a statistical boost from non-sunday games.Now, I figure with enough stat-hounds around here we could take a sampling of studs from all positions and do a similar analysis for all of them for the 05 season. Once that's done maybe we would have a better idea if there is anything to the MNF theory. That's all I was trying to do and for God's sake did not want to start another Favre thread.

 

[NYGus]

you forgot to mention all the INT's that Favre throws.

in my leagues that's -2

Favre threw a bunch of INT's LAST year. He's averages 17 per season for 15 years. Thats just over 1 a game. I can live with that, minus or no minus.And actually if you count his 1st season where he threw 2 INTS and average it over 16 seasons he's only thrown 16.1 ints per season to date.

And if you really wanna break it down further and remove his 1st season and this season --he has averaged 28 TD's and 18 INTS per season for 14 seasons.

Stop Hatin', you people make me laugh.

This is VERY helpful. I'm going to draft 1994-2004 Favre in all my leagues next year.

Well what else do you base it on? Some stupid comment that he throws bunches of INT's or that he plays poorly in domes? Those are his numbers. Maybe I missed something, how do you project what a guy will do? Dartboard?

 

[sholditch]

OK obviously I need to try this elsewhere and choose a less controversial example

 

[ceo3west]

OK obviously I need to try this elsewhere and choose a less controversial example

No, you dont. I agree with you - there has been a myth he cant play in domes and his avg of 296/2 you pointed out is solid regardless of int's. Thanks for this info, becuase I certainly did not think this was the case.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

you forgot to mention all the INT's that Favre throws.

in my leagues that's -2

Favre threw a bunch of INT's LAST year. He's averages 17 per season for 15 years. Thats just over 1 a game. I can live with that, minus or no minus.And actually if you count his 1st season where he threw 2 INTS and average it over 16 seasons he's only thrown 16.1 ints per season to date.

And if you really wanna break it down further and remove his 1st season and this season --he has averaged 28 TD's and 18 INTS per season for 14 seasons.

Stop Hatin', you people make me laugh.

This is VERY helpful. I'm going to draft 1994-2004 Favre in all my leagues next year.

Well what else do you base it on? Some stupid comment that he throws bunches of INT's or that he plays poorly in domes? Those are his numbers. Maybe I missed something, how do you project what a guy will do? Dartboard?

Skeet

 

[SickThing]

One thing that bugs me is owners that are tempted by doubling points from playing the QB and WR from the same team. The risk if they don't come through is as great as the reward if they do. It sets you up with an all or nothing type scenario. Try to ignore this temptation and just do what makes more sense, which is playing your best players. If that happens they end being from the same team, then fine. That could well happen during a good matchup week.

I play in several leagues that pay off the highest scorer for the week. in those situations this strategy is an excellent choice.

I can see where this scenario increases your temptation, but I still contend you're probably better off just playing your best players. My point is realistically there is no such thing as doubling points. It's a myth.ETA: Simultaneous points would be a better way to say it than double points. Simulateous points are not worth any more than non-simultaneous points.

 

[RoarinSonoran]

Those stats only show half the picture! They're all road games!

 

[trader jake]

"garbage points"...there is no such thing in fantasy football

"take out that run of XXX yards and then look at his stats"...ditto