"Age 30+" More of an Issue for Fantasy than Ever Before (1 Viewer)

[Anarchy99]

This came up last week in a different thread, and it was suggested that we make a separate thread to discuss things further. There was a stretch 10-20 years ago where older players were consistent fantasy producers, but those days are gone. QB and PK still have a decent amount of guys that are still productive, but the other skill positions have sided more for youth.

Here are the breakdowns by position listing the number of players age 30+ that were Top 5 / Top 10 / Top 20 for QB, TE, and PK and Top 5 / Top 10 / Top 25 / Top 40 for RB and WR using 1 PPR scoring.

  QB    5    10    20
2022    1    2    6
2021    2    4    10
2020    1    4    10
2019    1    2    7
2018    2    5    11
2017    2    4    8
2016    3    3    8
2015    2    5    10
2014    3    6    10
2013    3    4    7
2012    2    3    9
2011    2    5    7
2010    3    4    7
2009    2    4    8
2008    1    5    7
2007    2    5    8
2006    1    3    6
2005    1    4    10
2004    2    3    5
2003    1    4    9
2002    2    4    9

  RB    5    10    25    40
2022    0    0    1    4
2021    0    1    1    1
2020    0    0    0    2
2019    0    0    1    2
2018    0    0    1    2
2017    0    0    2    2
2016    0    1    4    6
2015    2    4    6    7
2014    0    0    3    5
2013    0    0    4    5
2012    0    0    1    3
2011    0    0    2    3
2010    0    0    1    2
2009    0    2    3    4
2008    1    1    2    5
2007    0    0    0    4
2006    0    1    4    4
2005    1    1    4    8
2004    1    2    6    7
2003    1    1    5    9
2002    1    1    4    7

  WR    5    10    25    40
2022    1    1    2    4
2021    0    0    0    3
2020    0    1    2    3
2019    1    2    2    5
2018    1    1    3    7
2017    1    1    2    5
2016    1    1    5    8
2015    1    2    3    6
2014    0    0    3    10
2013    0    1    5    10
2012    0    4    5    8
2011    2    3    5    9
2010    1    1    4    9
2009    1    2    8    11
2008    0    0    8    12
2007    2    3    8    12
2006    4    4    8    13
2005    0    2    9    16
2004    3    4    10    13
2003    1    2    7    12
2002    1    3    8    13

  TE    5    10    20
2022    1    2    4
2021    2    3    5
2020    1    3    5
2019    1    2    6
2018    1    1    2
2017    1    3    6
2016    2    4    6
2015    2    4    7
2014    1    2    5
2013    1    3    4
2012    3    4    5
2011    1    2    2
2010    1    3    4
2009    1    2    2
2008    1    1    2
2007    1    1    3
2006    1    1    2
2005    0    0    2
2004    0    0    4
2003    1    3    3
2002    1    3    7

  PK    5    10    20
2022    3    5    9
2021    3    5    12
2020    0    3    7
2019    1    4    8
2018    1    3    8
2017    3    6    11
2016    1    4    9
2015    2    4    8
2014    3    4    9
2013    1    3    7
2012    3    5    10
2011    2    6    11
2010    4    6    10
2009    3    6    12
2008    4    7    13
2007    1    4    9
2006    2    7    10
2005    1    4    9
2004    3    6    11
2003    5    7    11
2002    1    5    8

 

[Winning IS Everything]

This is good information to see, thank you. I am going to digest this a bit, but offhand I generally try to avoid RB and WR over 30, unless they are a crapshoot later in the draft. TE I generally do not use age as a factor, unless in dynasty.

 

[BassNBrew]

I suspect it's probably a product of preferring to pay less for similar production. There's no reason other than wear and tear that there should be a major drop off in the 30-35 range. 40 time may drop off 5% but for most that's still faster than Jerry Rice. Strength should be increasing of holding steady, football IQ should be increasing. Movement of players is probably causing a drop off.

 

[Anarchy99]

I suspect it's probably a product of preferring to pay less for similar production. There's no reason other than wear and tear that there should be a major drop off in the 30-35 range. 40 time may drop off 5% but for most that's still faster than Jerry Rice. Strength should be increasing of holding steady, football IQ should be increasing. Movement of players is probably causing a drop off.

I suspect that the two factors are 1) injuries (the rankings are based on total fantasy points, not fantasy ppg) and 2) speed (at least for WR). The passing game has evolved into a lot of quick hitting plays and guys getting tons of YAC. Guys like AJ Green and Julio Jones aren't going to win a foot race these days. If they don't have the wiggle and burst that they used to have, they may not even be great possession guys if they can't get any separation.

 

[eighsse2]

Very interesting, thanks for posting this. The most significant column to me seems to be the Too 40 WR's. But it may just be that it looks exceptionally stark because of all the extra digits when the numbers go above 9.

 

[menobrown]

Thanks for posting but a quick questions and let me just start with the 2022 WR's.

Is the top 5 WR you listed Adams? This is why this can sometimes be difficult because he turned 30 in week 15, for the most part his production that year was as a 29 year old. So if you took him out you'd basically have just Lockett who turned 30 a few games into the season. I tend to look at what age a player played at for most of the year but that can be tricky trying to sort out so understand why that was not easy for you to do.

 

[Anarchy99]

Thanks for posting but a quick questions and let me just start with the 2022 WR's.

Is the top 5 WR you listed Adams? This is why this can sometimes be difficult because he turned 30 in week 15, for the most part his production that year was as a 29 year old. So if you took him out you'd basically have just Lockett who turned 30 a few games into the season. I tend to look at what age a player played at for most of the year but that can be tricky trying to sort out so understand why that was not easy for you to do.

Generally speaking, statistics and databases consider what age the player is at the end of the current season. So Adams and Lockett both go in the record books as having just completed their age 30 season. That's pretty standard from what I have seen.

 

[eighsse2]

Thanks for posting but a quick questions and let me just start with the 2022 WR's.

Is the top 5 WR you listed Adams? This is why this can sometimes be difficult because he turned 30 in week 15, for the most part his production that year was as a 29 year old. So if you took him out you'd basically have just Lockett who turned 30 a few games into the season. I tend to look at what age a player played at for most of the year but that can be tricky trying to sort out so understand why that was not easy for you to do.

Generally speaking, statistics and databases consider what age the player is at the end of the current season. So Adams and Lockett both go in the record books as having just completed their age 30 season. That's pretty standard from what I have seen.

Didn't know that rule of thumb. But yeah. My opinion would pretty much be that it doesn't matter -- so long, of course, as everyone is being sorted by the same rule. 30 was surely an arbitrary choice anyway, just because it's a nice round number. You could do the same exercise, selecting only players who were 30 on the first day of the season. Or only players who turned 30 by week 5. Or players who were 31 on the first day of the season. Or 29 by the first day of the season. Some choices will show more or less significant patterns, but I'd bet they're all fairly similar looking.

 

[zamboni]

I suspect it's probably a product of preferring to pay less for similar production. There's no reason other than wear and tear that there should be a major drop off in the 30-35 range. 40 time may drop off 5% but for most that's still faster than Jerry Rice. Strength should be increasing of holding steady, football IQ should be increasing. Movement of players is probably causing a drop off.

I suspect that the two factors are 1) injuries (the rankings are based on total fantasy points, not fantasy ppg) and 2) speed (at least for WR). The passing game has evolved into a lot of quick hitting plays and guys getting tons of YAC. Guys like AJ Green and Julio Jones aren't going to win a foot race these days. If they don't have the wiggle and burst that they used to have, they may not even be great possession guys if they can't get any separation.

I think speed is definitely a huge factor. It's a much faster game relative to years past - even the behemoth lineman have to be able to move now. Some WRs that can create separation can hold on longer, but eventually that dissipates as well. QBs can hang on longer if they are proficient pocket passers and have suitable protection in front of them.

 

[menobrown]

Thanks for posting but a quick questions and let me just start with the 2022 WR's.

Is the top 5 WR you listed Adams? This is why this can sometimes be difficult because he turned 30 in week 15, for the most part his production that year was as a 29 year old. So if you took him out you'd basically have just Lockett who turned 30 a few games into the season. I tend to look at what age a player played at for most of the year but that can be tricky trying to sort out so understand why that was not easy for you to do.

Generally speaking, statistics and databases consider what age the player is at the end of the current season. So Adams and Lockett both go in the record books as having just completed their age 30 season. That's pretty standard from what I have seen.

Didn't know that rule of thumb. But yeah. My opinion would pretty much be that it doesn't matter -- so long, of course, as everyone is being sorted by the same rule. 30 was surely an arbitrary choice anyway, just because it's a nice round number. You could do the same exercise, selecting only players who were 30 on the first day of the season. Or only players who turned 30 by week 5. Or players who were 31 on the first day of the season. Or 29 by the first day of the season. Some choices will show more or less significant patterns, but I'd bet they're all fairly similar looking.

It matters to me. I can't count Davante Adams as a 30 year old when he literally turned 30 on the day of his game in week 15. Whatever he did last year he mainly did as a 29 year old. Lockett, who turned 30 a few weeks into the season I will allow. That's how I tend to look at it, what age did a player play most of the season. But I understand databases can't sort things out in such a manner but if I did rely on a database I'd use the age the player started the season, not the age he finished.

May seem like splitting hairs but it's the difference between not having a top 5 30+year old fantasy WR since 2019 or 2022.

 

[eighsse2]

Thanks for posting but a quick questions and let me just start with the 2022 WR's.

Is the top 5 WR you listed Adams? This is why this can sometimes be difficult because he turned 30 in week 15, for the most part his production that year was as a 29 year old. So if you took him out you'd basically have just Lockett who turned 30 a few games into the season. I tend to look at what age a player played at for most of the year but that can be tricky trying to sort out so understand why that was not easy for you to do.

Generally speaking, statistics and databases consider what age the player is at the end of the current season. So Adams and Lockett both go in the record books as having just completed their age 30 season. That's pretty standard from what I have seen.

Didn't know that rule of thumb. But yeah. My opinion would pretty much be that it doesn't matter -- so long, of course, as everyone is being sorted by the same rule. 30 was surely an arbitrary choice anyway, just because it's a nice round number. You could do the same exercise, selecting only players who were 30 on the first day of the season. Or only players who turned 30 by week 5. Or players who were 31 on the first day of the season. Or 29 by the first day of the season. Some choices will show more or less significant patterns, but I'd bet they're all fairly similar looking.

It matters to me. I can't count Davante Adams as a 30 year old when he literally turned 30 on the day of his game in week 15. Whatever he did last year he mainly did as a 29 year old. Lockett, who turned 30 a few weeks into the season I will allow. That's how I tend to look at it, what age did a player play most of the season. But I understand databases can't sort things out in such a manner but if I did rely on a database I'd use the age the player started the season, not the age he finished.

May seem like splitting hairs but it's the difference between not having a top 5 30+year old fantasy WR since 2019 or 2022.

That's true that 30 means 30, and there must be a specific threshold for what that means in the sorting criteria, but isn't it still arbitrary? If you specifically set out to tune it to a specific number that makes the data more or less meaningful, that seems like gaming the system. Unless the actual age of 30 really is a truly meaningful threshold, not just a nice round number to use, then I don't see why it matters. Pick a point in the season at which a player has to turn a specific age, then use that criteria for all players. Testing the results with a variety of different criteria (age 29, 31, etc.) is great, that might help to judge whether any perceived pattern is a fluke or the real deal, or to see at what age the dropoff is the most evident. But I see no reason why one specific age is better than another. Use any value and it will be meaningful.

ETA: I will say this though, you are right that it matters to know what the crteria are for the test. Because that determines its meaning, and how set expectations on players going forward. So if that's all you mean, then yes, totally agree.

 

[Anarchy99]

It matters to me. I can't count Davante Adams as a 30 year old when he literally turned 30 on the day of his game in week 15. Whatever he did last year he mainly did as a 29 year old. Lockett, who turned 30 a few weeks into the season I will allow. That's how I tend to look at it, what age did a player play most of the season. But I understand databases can't sort things out in such a manner but if I did rely on a database I'd use the age the player started the season, not the age he finished.

May seem like splitting hairs but it's the difference between not having a top 5 30+year old fantasy WR since 2019 or 2022.

Obviously, you can define an age and a season however you want. But that's not how information will be parsed out in a database query. IMO, way too much work to review every player's age and change what defines a player's age when compiling info for thousands of players over several decades. Way too difficult and time consuming.

 

[renesauz]

Looking at your charts....I'm not sure they support the theory all that well. There are outliers 15-20 years ago and outliers more recently at the different positions but there's no real trend.

At QB, 2020 and 2021 were similar to 2005, and 2022 is similar to 2004 and 2006.

We can do the same at the other positions. WR shows a dropoff. Rb a little maybe.

 

[ratbast]

Seems like at RB it’s so obvious. Stats from age 27, 28, 29 etc. could paint the proper picture. Im sure it’s already been done but more important than 30.
Really cool thread. There’s an owner in my TD heavy keeper league that targets the old faithful and he hits more than you’d think. (Example Gurley In Atlanta)

 

[Mitchie]

interesting thread, i do agree 28 would be a better age to use for RB and would prob use something closer to 34 for QB's.

 

[cdclopper]

Here's a bunch of graphs I made for the trade calculator I developed, as it relates to age. What I did was run a bunch of regressions of fantasy_value in one year correlated to fantasy_value of some future year. Not technically from one year to the next, because the players were aggregated by age. The visuals are basically displaying the production stickiness as it relates to the dependent_age. Maybe the presentation a little confusing tho, I don't know. You can play around with it if you want.

QB, RB, WR, TE

The data was used from 2005-2020, so it doesn't compare now with back then, as it's more of a modern representation.

It shouldn't surprise anybody that QB decayed the very least. They seem to hit their prime in their 30's, not dropping off until they hit their late 30's. Graphically it followed an age^8 trend where it's pretty much flat until the mid 30's. RB, WR, TE are what you would expect, dropping off consistently.

 

[FairWarning]

This is good information to see, thank you. I am going to digest this a bit, but offhand I generally try to avoid RB and WR over 30, unless they are a crapshoot later in the draft. TE I generally do not use age as a factor, unless in dynasty.

I have always avoided RB’s over 27 before the 10th round. Just a combo of impending injury, declining skills, and letting desperate teams choose them while I’m taking a flier on fresh legs.

 

[JohnnyU]

Milage seems to matter whether we want to accept it or not. Henry notwithstanding. No stats on this, but bigger backs seem to be affected by age more. Again, Henry notwithstanding, he’s a freak of nature.

 

[cdclopper]

Milage seems to matter whether we want to accept it or not. Henry notwithstanding. No stats on this, but bigger backs seem to be affected by age more. Again, Henry notwithstanding, he’s a freak of nature.

We already know the effects of aging on athletic function. This is noticed outside of contact sports. Usain Bolt even, considered the greatest sprinter of all time, could not win consistently past the age of 30. This was the age he earned his last Olympic medals.

Running back 'mileage' is a spurious correlation with the process of aging, not a causal factor.