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Devil's Advocate
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Just because he didn't produce on the worst offense in the league doesn't mean he won't produce in New England.Still would take the under.Erik Kuselius: "If you were in Vegas and had to set the under/over for Randy Moss touchdowns this year, what would the number be?"
Mort: "12." (
EK: <after a stunned pause> "12??? But Mort, 13 led the NFL last year."
Mort: "Yeah, I know... but Brady [blah blah blah]... and he'll bounce back [stammer stammer]....."
I almost drove off the road. Stick to dogfighting updates, fella.
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So what is your o/u?Erik Kuselius: "If you were in Vegas and had to set the under/over for Randy Moss touchdowns this year, what would the number be?"
Mort: "12." ()
EK: <after a stunned pause> "12??? But Mort, 13 led the NFL last year."
Mort: "Yeah, I know... but Brady [blah blah blah]... and he'll bounce back [stammer stammer]....."
I almost drove off the road. Stick to dogfighting updates, fella.
Brutis
Footballguy
I think 9 or 10 but it wouldnt suprise me at all to see 12 TD's from Randy, Pats Offense is pretty good and Brady is a slight upgrade over Brooks/Walters.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Agreed. However, in Moss's 9 years in the league, he was over 12 TDs in 4, under in 5. So Mort's "12" isn't outlandish. Again, I agree that 8 is the better o/u
Jason Wood
Zoo York
I have him for 10, so I agree 12 shouldn't be the O/U. But I think Mort's point was that we're going to see the Randy of old, and in that regard I 100% agree with him.
Monsters of the Midway
Footballguy
I'd say 8.5. If he plays 16g he's going over even though Brady spreads the ball around better than anyone and the Pats have thrown more TDs to their TEs (45) over the last 5 years than any other team.
I project Brady to throw 32 TD's this year. To say that a motivated Moss could catch slightly more than 25% of those is certainly not a reach. I agree with Mort....
trader jake
Footballguy
As an O/U 12 is a ridiculous number, but Mort's point is that Randy Moss is going to be productive this season in New England.
I agree.
I agree.
(HULK)
(Smash)
I would take over 8.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Over the course of his career, Moss catches about 1 TD per 6.7 receptions. In the last three years, starting with 2004 when he missed his first game, he averaged more than 1 in 6. Even if we only look at Oakland, Moss caught 1 TD per 9.3 receptions.
If you give him 90 catches, that would be somewhere between 9 and 15 TDs. An O/U of 12 seems reasonable if you predict him for 90 catches, but that seems a little high to me. I have him closer to 80.
And please don't start the "Brady spreads the ball around" argument again. If Brady's favorite receiver is whoever's open, then it stands to reason that the best receiver on the team will get open more often. And the best red zone receiver on the team is unquestionably Randy Moss.
If you give him 90 catches, that would be somewhere between 9 and 15 TDs. An O/U of 12 seems reasonable if you predict him for 90 catches, but that seems a little high to me. I have him closer to 80.
And please don't start the "Brady spreads the ball around" argument again. If Brady's favorite receiver is whoever's open, then it stands to reason that the best receiver on the team will get open more often. And the best red zone receiver on the team is unquestionably Randy Moss.
FWIW, since Brady took over at QB in 2001, the largest number of TD's in a season that an individual WR or TE has caught is 7. Pre-Brady, you have to go back to 1996 to TE Ben Coates (9 TD's) to find anyone who caught more than that.
There's certainly a chicken or the egg argument that the Pats system spreads the ball making for poor WR numbers vs the Pats spread the ball due to poor WR's, but that historical trend has me on the doubting side of any predictions of massive numbers for Moss or Stallworth this year.
There's certainly a chicken or the egg argument that the Pats system spreads the ball making for poor WR numbers vs the Pats spread the ball due to poor WR's, but that historical trend has me on the doubting side of any predictions of massive numbers for Moss or Stallworth this year.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
This is a little off subject, but out of curiousity, has Brady ever had a 1000 yard receiver? Also, what is the most # of TDs he has thrown to a receiver/TE in a given year.
I understand he has never had a receiver in the class of Moss, so I am curious as to whether he spread the passing offense in the past because he had to or because it is his nature as a QB.
I understand he has never had a receiver in the class of Moss, so I am curious as to whether he spread the passing offense in the past because he had to or because it is his nature as a QB.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
massraider
Footballguy
Sorry, I was looking for the Ben Watson 2006 thread, this one will do, I guess.
12 TDs? Really?
So.........
The Pats are going to drastically change their offensive philosophy, that has served them well through numerous championships,
Randy Moss is going to get religion, straighten up and fly right, for the first time since junior high school,
He is going to avoid injury, for the first time in 3 years,
as well as resume catching the ball, a practice he forgot last season?
12 TDs? Really?
So.........
The Pats are going to drastically change their offensive philosophy, that has served them well through numerous championships,
Randy Moss is going to get religion, straighten up and fly right, for the first time since junior high school,
He is going to avoid injury, for the first time in 3 years,
as well as resume catching the ball, a practice he forgot last season?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
7.5. But I expect him to miss 3 or 4 games here and there.Clayton Gray said:So what is your o/u?RAIDERNATION said:Erik Kuselius: "If you were in Vegas and had to set the under/over for Randy Moss touchdowns this year, what would the number be?"
Mort: "12." ()
EK: <after a stunned pause> "12??? But Mort, 13 led the NFL last year."
Mort: "Yeah, I know... but Brady [blah blah blah]... and he'll bounce back [stammer stammer]....."
I almost drove off the road. Stick to dogfighting updates, fella.
nygiants56
Footballguy
I think 12 is dead-on!Moss will be the best WR this season, by far. Chad Pennington was quoted as saying that Moss loves to be the second best guy on a team, he performs better that way. he doens't do well as the #1 guy.'RAIDERNATION said:Erik Kuselius: "If you were in Vegas and had to set the under/over for Randy Moss touchdowns this year, what would the number be?"
Mort: "12." ()
EK: <after a stunned pause> "12??? But Mort, 13 led the NFL last year."
Mort: "Yeah, I know... but Brady [blah blah blah]... and he'll bounce back [stammer stammer]....."
I almost drove off the road. Stick to dogfighting updates, fella.
NE is going to be a safe haven for him, he should thrive as Brady's go to guy..Maroney is still feeling pain in his shoulder, so it remains to be seen just how good that NE running game will be..if it has even the slightest hiccup, Moss' TDs should skyrocket past 12 tds this season.
Brady has never had a WR of his caliber to throw to. ANYONE would get lost on the Raiders last season, that team was one of the worst teams in the past 30 years in the NFL. They couldn't run,pass,block. reminded me of the 1977 Bucs..
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Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Is there any press-love out there more prominent then the fascination with the Patriots? I don't buy the "we admire them because they win and are classy" shtick from Mort, King, etc. b/c I don't remember everyone going all soft-knees over the Bulls when they were classy and winning. Randy Moss hasn't been a good receiver in some time. That's not to say he can't be again, but good grief.
massraider
Footballguy
There have been a lot of bad teams over the last 20 years or so in the NFL. I have never seen a player on any of those teams mail it in like Randy did. Randy wasn't lost, he quit. There's a difference.
Koya
Footballguy
I think 12 is a reasonable (albeit not conservative) expectation. I think Randy may not see the number of total targets/yards that he had in the past, but I do believe he will see nearly as many red zone targets. I see his optimistic upside as 1300/14 TDs with a likelihood of 1100 and 10-12 TDs imo - as opposed to the 1500/16 TD upside when he was putting up big numbers in Minny.
switz
Footballguy
Of course, a Raider fan is going to have the MOST objective opinion on this...
Only Cris Carter (3), Terrell Owens (3), Lance Alworth (3), and Jerry Rice (6) have done that.
Except you're overlooking that they've changed their philosophy every year to fit their personnel...
Does he need to fly straight to put up those nuimbers? No.
How much of his injuries were real in the first place?
Well, having Tom Brady throwing to you instead of - wait, did the Raiders have any QBs last season???Count me in as a Moss-believer this season. This is a player who has THREE TIMES led the league in receiving TDs.
Only Cris Carter (3), Terrell Owens (3), Lance Alworth (3), and Jerry Rice (6) have done that.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Even if that's true, which I don't think it is, I'm guessing that Mort didn't fully understand the question as it was posed. You wouldn't set the under/over at 12 for the simple fact that 90% of the public (IMO, anyway) would take the under. It would take 13 TDs to *beat* you on that wager.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I'll take the under:
Randy Moss avg TD/season over the last three years: 8
NE avg top TD receiver over the last three years: 5.3
Randy Moss avg TD/season over the last three years: 8
NE avg top TD receiver over the last three years: 5.3
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
And how often has THAT been the case, exactly...
switz
Footballguy
In NINE seasons he's only missed double digit TDs three times. One year he was injured, the other two he suffered through the rotation of Raiders passers - note I didn't say QBs.in 2003 he scored 17 TDs, in 2004 he scored 13 TDs.In 2005 he had 1005 yards and 8 TDs with Kerry "I've only thrown 20TDs twice in my career" Collins at QB.In 2006, he quit on a miserable team that trotted out Aaron "INT" Brooks, Marques "off the Marque" Tuiasasopo, and Andrew "can't draw me a good pass" Walters to throw the ball to the Raiders opponents.Moss' struggles the past two seasons do not speak to any diminishing skills.
massraider
Footballguy
Hey, man, I've watched every game of his for the last two years. Have you?Really, the point of my post was just to point out that a lot of things need to happen, to come together, in order for Moss to reach 12 TDs.
To respond to your responses:
RE: offensive philosophy: I'm not overlooking anything. The Pats spread the ball around. They throw to backup backs, 3rd tight ends, 4th wide receivers, and linebackers.
RE: Attitude: You may very well be right. His attitude won't necessarily affect his ability to put up numbers. Does he have to be a solid guy to put up numbers. No. But he does need to be healthy and focused. Hasn't been in a couple years.
Re: Injuries: 'How many of them were real?' Is that supposed to be some kind of mark in Moss' favor? Good news, Pats fans! He wasn't really hurt, he was dogging it. He has missed games because of injury the last few years, that's a fact. If you can dismiss it just because you think he was faking, well, good for you, but I see an aging, skinny WR that could probably work harder in the offseason.
RE: Catching the ball: I think you misunderstood my statement. I was referring to the fact that Randy dropped the ball last year. A lot. That means the ball was in his hands, catchable, and he dropped it. The fact that the QB that threw it sucked isn't really relevant, is it? I'm not blaming Moss for Andrew Walter throwing bad passes. I'm blaming Moss for not catching the good ones.
I think Moss is going to help the Pats win. I just don't think he's going to rewrite the Patriot record books in the process. Some folks think they are getting Randy from 2003. That guy is gone.
Tyrion
Footballguy
Oakland wasn't just a bad team. It was a team that had no belief in the OC or HC on the offensive side of the ball. Looked to me like Randy took the year off before training camp even started. This makes him a bad team player when the chips are down but it does not make him a bad Fantasy player on a front runner like the Patriots.
massraider
Footballguy
I didn't say it did. What will make him a less than stud-ly fantasy option are health, and the Pats spread it around philosophy. Not to mention the fact that there'll be no stealing Randy Moss in most fantasy drafts this year. If you want Randy, you're gonna have to pay a premium for him. No way do I see him living up to his ADP.
stop at "health" and you've got a winning answer there.The freakish Randy Moss of old is gone no doubt.
But even a 70 catch season (@ a modest 15.0 ypc) out of Moss will give him some nice fantasy numbers.
pencil me in for 70, 1100, and 9 TDs.
He's currently going in the 4th round of many mocks as a late #2/early #3 WR... I'd kill to have this guy as my 3rd WR.
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John Mamula
Moderator
Jason Wood said:
i'll make a friendly wager that he won't crack the top 20.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Care to expand on why you think he won't crack the top 20?Jason Wood said:
Colin Dowling
Footballguy
Sure they do. Why is it everyone else's fault that the offense in Oakland stunk yet somehow it's not the fault of the offense's best player (Moss)? Like it or not, Randy Moss's performance was a big reason why the offense was so poor. Yeah, yeah....Tom Walsh...Art Shell...O-line... The best player on the field should be able to make the offense around him at least a little better; Randy Moss didn't do that. Period. Why? He may score 15 TDs this season. He certainly has shown the ability in the past. My problem with predicting such a lofty number outright is that Randy Moss hasn't given me any reason to think he will perform at that level since 2004. We wouldn't predict Jamal Lewis to run for 2,000 yards again, would we? It could happen, and he's done it in the past, but we haven't seen that level of play from him in some time. Same thing with Moss., IMO.
John Mamula
Moderator
Randy Moss is on the wrong side of 30. He is coming into a system that in Brady's tenure has not had any WR crack the top 20. Of course the argument to that is that Brady has not had a WR like Moss before. Well, yes and no. Moss is not as good as he once was and I don't think he is better today than Branch in 2005 (who was ranked #22). You are also adding in Stallworth who will be a 1B. Moss is just not going to get the bulk of receptions and I would be shocked if he cracked the 60 reception mark in NE.He has not been in the top 5 since 2003, barely cracked the top 20 in 2004 and 2005, and obviously was abysmal last year. He hasn't cracked double digits TDs since 2004, which will be the only way he can sniff the top 20. He won't get it via yards and receptions.Care to expand on why you think he won't crack the top 20?Jason Wood said:
twitch
Footballguy
That's a decent team comparison...the Bulls. New England doesnt quite have a legendary figure like Jordan, but if the Pats win another ring or 2, then Brady will definitely thought of in the same light. And Moss would compare directly to Rodman...someone who performed well in other stops, but started to lose focus and be kind of a knucklehead, and clearly just needed someone else to provide greater leadership. Rodman got it from Jordan....Moss will get it from Brady. Before Rodman, the Bulls had won 3 titles. Before Moss, the Pats have won 3 titles. It will be wild to see how it unfolds.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Troy Brown had 101 receptions for 1199 yards and 5 TDs in 2001. To be fair, 15 of those catches for 207 yards and a TD were in the first three games. But Brown caught 18 passes for 253 yards in three playoff games in 2001, so it seems like it's fair to call him a 1200 yard receiver under Brady. In 2002, Brown had 97 receptions, but for only 890 yards and 3 TDs. He was being used for a lot more dink and dunk passes, and ended up with a 9.2 YPC, much lower than his 2001 YPC of 11.9. The most TDs Brady has ever thrown to a single receiver was 7, to Christian Fauria. He was head and shoulders above everyone else on the team as a red zone threat. Randy Moss is a little better than Fauria, and is also head and shoulders above everyone else on the team as a red zone threat.Sweet Love said:
Tackling Dummies
Footballguy
A 08 FBG subscription says he will.Jason Wood said:
bostonfred
Footballguy
You seriously don't think Moss is better than Deion Branch?Randy Moss is on the wrong side of 30. He is coming into a system that in Brady's tenure has not had any WR crack the top 20. Of course the argument to that is that Brady has not had a WR like Moss before. Well, yes and no. Moss is not as good as he once was and I don't think he is better today than Branch in 2005 (who was ranked #22). You are also adding in Stallworth who will be a 1B. Moss is just not going to get the bulk of receptions and I would be shocked if he cracked the 60 reception mark in NE.He has not been in the top 5 since 2003, barely cracked the top 20 in 2004 and 2005, and obviously was abysmal last year. He hasn't cracked double digits TDs since 2004, which will be the only way he can sniff the top 20. He won't get it via yards and receptions.Care to expand on why you think he won't crack the top 20?Jason Wood said:
John Mamula
Moderator
i was betting with woodrow.A 08 FBG subscription says he will.Jason Wood said:
John Mamula
Moderator
today? no.You seriously don't think Moss is better than Deion Branch?Randy Moss is on the wrong side of 30. He is coming into a system that in Brady's tenure has not had any WR crack the top 20. Of course the argument to that is that Brady has not had a WR like Moss before. Well, yes and no. Moss is not as good as he once was and I don't think he is better today than Branch in 2005 (who was ranked #22). You are also adding in Stallworth who will be a 1B. Moss is just not going to get the bulk of receptions and I would be shocked if he cracked the 60 reception mark in NE.He has not been in the top 5 since 2003, barely cracked the top 20 in 2004 and 2005, and obviously was abysmal last year. He hasn't cracked double digits TDs since 2004, which will be the only way he can sniff the top 20. He won't get it via yards and receptions.Care to expand on why you think he won't crack the top 20?Jason Wood said:
burd
Footballguy
If he's going to be the go-to guy they expect, I don't' see why Moss can't get atleast 10 TDs. The big question is how much will he be looked to considering he plays w/ 2 other very good WRs. Moss getting 10 means that Stallworth and Welker get like 5 or 6 ... which can happen. I dunno ... does everyone think Moss will become (and stay) as Brady's fav target? I think the only thing that hampers Moss is an injury. He'll be a good boy this year
John Mamula
Moderator
and here come the caveats...
bostonfred
Footballguy
That's surprising to me. Why do you think his talent dropped off so far so fast? Is it because he wasn't working hard? Do you think he's working harder now? Is it because he has gotten slower? Why do you think his recent 40 times were so good? Is it because you think he was well utilized in the Raiders' offense? Do you think he'll be utilized any better in New England? Is it because you think that he will be covered by the top corners in the AFC West? The Patriots don't play many teams with top corners this year.today? no.You seriously don't think Moss is better than Deion Branch?Randy Moss is on the wrong side of 30. He is coming into a system that in Brady's tenure has not had any WR crack the top 20. Of course the argument to that is that Brady has not had a WR like Moss before. Well, yes and no. Moss is not as good as he once was and I don't think he is better today than Branch in 2005 (who was ranked #22). You are also adding in Stallworth who will be a 1B. Moss is just not going to get the bulk of receptions and I would be shocked if he cracked the 60 reception mark in NE.He has not been in the top 5 since 2003, barely cracked the top 20 in 2004 and 2005, and obviously was abysmal last year. He hasn't cracked double digits TDs since 2004, which will be the only way he can sniff the top 20. He won't get it via yards and receptions.Care to expand on why you think he won't crack the top 20?Jason Wood said:
