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[faulkfan]

Is there any press-love out there more prominent then the fascination with the Patriots? I don't buy the "we admire them because they win and are classy" shtick from Mort, King, etc. b/c I don't remember everyone going all soft-knees over the Bulls when they were classy and winning. Randy Moss hasn't been a good receiver in some time. That's not to say he can't be again, but good grief.

Then you have a short memory. I am a Bulls fan and grew up around Chicago when they were the best team on the PLANET. The press loved them some Bulls all day every day. It is also important to note that when the Bulls were going crazy the internet was still in its infancy. Now you have hundreds of thousands of "experts" who would have no voice were it not for the constant stream of information required to feed the global audience on the internet. So perhaps it seems worse because there are more blowhards who now have a forum to...well..blow hard.

 

[John Mamula]

That's surprising to me. Why do you think his talent dropped off so far so fast?

I think his talent is dropping with age. That is one factor.

Is it because he wasn't working hard? Do you think he's working harder now?

He wasn't working hard, which has been a constant throughout his career. He takes plays off when he is not the focus, and completely quit in Oakland. He will not be the total focus of the offense in NE like he was in MIN. That will mean he will likely be taking more plays off and with the other options Brady has Brady won't hesitate to go elsewhere.

Is it because he has gotten slower? Why do you think his recent 40 times were so good?

Everyone is slower at 30 than 26. 40 times are overrated and can be manipulated based on who is timing it. I don't care what people do in shorts. I want to see it on the field. Bottom line Moss has not been getting separation as much over the past few years than he did at 25.

Is it because you think he was well utilized in the Raiders' offense? Do you think he'll be utilized any better in New England?

He was not well utilized in the Raiders offense. Nobody was. But I don't bet against trends and the trend with Brady is that he spreads the ball around. I don't think that will change with Moss so it is not a question of being better utilized, but how many touches he will get. It just won't be that much more than anyone else.

Is it because you think that he will be covered by the top corners in the AFC West? The Patriots don't play many teams with top corners this year.

That's rationalization. Porter burned Bailey for 3 TDs in a game. Basing Moss' stats on perceived matchups is extremely flawed.I don't doubt that my opinion is contrarian to most here. But it is what it is.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Is there any press-love out there more prominent then the fascination with the Patriots? I don't buy the "we admire them because they win and are classy" shtick from Mort, King, etc. b/c I don't remember everyone going all soft-knees over the Bulls when they were classy and winning. Randy Moss hasn't been a good receiver in some time. That's not to say he can't be again, but good grief.

Then you have a short memory. I am a Bulls fan and grew up around Chicago when they were the best team on the PLANET. The press loved them some Bulls all day every day. It is also important to note that when the Bulls were going crazy the internet was still in its infancy. Now you have hundreds of thousands of "experts" who would have no voice were it not for the constant stream of information required to feed the global audience on the internet. So perhaps it seems worse because there are more blowhards who now have a forum to...well..blow hard.

Good point about the innernet being in its infancy back then. And the press in Houston wasn't going gaga; most of them were mad Jordan got suspended for gambling, which kept Hakeem and company from getting to roll them.

 

[switz]

Of course, a Raider fan is going to have the MOST objective opinion on this...

Hey, man, I've watched every game of his for the last two years. Have you?

Admittedly no. I give you tons of credit for sitting through those expositions of futility

Really, the point of my post was just to point out that a lot of things need to happen, to come together, in order for Moss to reach 12 TDs.

Sure - but I don't think they're as unreachable as it seems you think they are

To respond to your responses:

RE: offensive philosophy: I'm not overlooking anything. The Pats spread the ball around. They throw to backup backs, 3rd tight ends, 4th wide receivers, and linebackers.

In 2006 Reche Caldwell still saw 61 receptions.In 2005 Branch had 78 receptions, Givens 59

In 2004 Branch 35 (9 games - prorates to 62), Givens 56, Patten 44

In 2003 Branch 57 (15 games - prorates to 61), Brown 40

In 2002 Brown 97, Branch 43

In 2001 Brown 101, Patten 51

In 2000 Brown 83, Glenn 79

So can we agree, it's realistic that Moss sees between 61 and 101 receptions? Given that the teams leading WR has been between those numbers when the team has had a decent WR?

What has Moss done in that range?

69 rec 1313 yards 17 TDs

80 rec 1413 yards 11 TDs

77 rec 1437 yards 15 TDs

82 rec 1233 yards 10 TDs

49 rec 767 yards 13 TDs <-- less receptions than lowest #1 Pats WR historically

60 rec 1005 yards 8 TDs

When the Pats had a healthy Troy Brown, he saw an average of 94 receptions per season. Could Moss see that number of receptions? Clearly it's possible, but IMO unlikely. However, it's easily within the realm of reason for him to see about 70 recpetions this season. That would put his performance somewhere between 1300-1400 yards and 14-16 TDs IMO.

RE: Attitude: You may very well be right. His attitude won't necessarily affect his ability to put up numbers. Does he have to be a solid guy to put up numbers. No. But he does need to be healthy and focused. Hasn't been in a couple years.

The point is, he stopped being focused when he was on the Raiders. There is a direct corolation between his attitude and his team. You may not want to think that. But there's no reason, from looking at Moss' history, to think that he won't excel on a winning team, and be a team player. Even when he was second fiddle to Carter, he put up tremendous numbers. Heck he came in as the #3 WR and didn't complain in MIN.

Re: Injuries: 'How many of them were real?' Is that supposed to be some kind of mark in Moss' favor? Good news, Pats fans! He wasn't really hurt, he was dogging it. He has missed games because of injury the last few years, that's a fact. If you can dismiss it just because you think he was faking, well, good for you, but I see an aging, skinny WR that could probably work harder in the offseason.

Well, if you are looking for him to work harder in the offseason, then you should be happy, since he's been working very hard this offseason.

RE: Catching the ball: I think you misunderstood my statement. I was referring to the fact that Randy dropped the ball last year. A lot. That means the ball was in his hands, catchable, and he dropped it. The fact that the QB that threw it sucked isn't really relevant, is it? I'm not blaming Moss for Andrew Walter throwing bad passes. I'm blaming Moss for not catching the good ones.

I think Moss is going to help the Pats win. I just don't think he's going to rewrite the Patriot record books in the process. Some folks think they are getting Randy from 2003. That guy is gone.

In 2005 Moss caught the ball. It's been pointed out by pretty much everyone that Moss quit last year. Is it likely he'll keep dropping passes, now that his circumstances have changed? I doubt it. The drops were a symptom of the Raiders' disease. It's called suckitude.If anything, I think being on the Raiders made Moss appreciate that winning is more important than money. I can see him working harder than he ever has in the NFL for the Patriots.

 

[ceo3west]

There are reasons not to like Moss, but age shouldn't be one of them. The guy is only 30 years old, and if you look at recent history, there have been plenty of 30+ WR's cracking top 10, even top 3. Last year, Owens & Harrison ended up 1 & 2 (non-ppr), and they were 34 & 33, respectively. Not to mention Holt & Driver (who are both older than Moss) landed in the top 10. Two years ago, when Joey Galloway was left for dead at age 34 because he was injury prone & washed up, ended up #5.

Bottom line is that while Moss may not get back to top 10, he surely is capable of it and is definitely NOT over the hill. In fact, at age 30 he may still have several very productive years ahead of him based on the facts stated above. To say Randy's talent level has been "lost" with age is absurd IMO.

 

[switz]

Randy Moss hasn't been a good receiver in some time. That's not to say he can't be again, but good grief.

In NINE seasons he's only missed double digit TDs three times. One year he was injured, the other two he suffered through the rotation of Raiders passers - note I didn't say QBs.in 2003 he scored 17 TDs, in 2004 he scored 13 TDs.In 2005 he had 1005 yards and 8 TDs with Kerry "I've only thrown 20TDs twice in my career" Collins at QB.In 2006, he quit on a miserable team that trotted out Aaron "INT" Brooks, Marques "off the Marque" Tuiasasopo, and Andrew "can't draw me a good pass" Walters to throw the ball to the Raiders opponents.Moss' struggles the past two seasons do not speak to any diminishing skills.

Sure they do. Why is it everyone else's fault that the offense in Oakland stunk yet somehow it's not the fault of the offense's best player (Moss)? Like it or not, Randy Moss's performance was a big reason why the offense was so poor. Yeah, yeah....Tom Walsh...Art Shell...O-line... The best player on the field should be able to make the offense around him at least a little better; Randy Moss didn't do that. Period. Why?

Skills != Effort. Randy didn't even TRY last year. And he only tried for like the first 12 games of the previous season. There's no way you can say his SKILLS diminished, based on a lack of effort.You can argue all you want that Randy won't try this season because he's not the focal point of the offense. But he wasn't the focal point of the MIN offense his first three seasons either.And projecting that is all speculation, which there's no way to support or deny. If it's your gut feeling, so be it. I'll be more than content to disagree and let the season play out.

He may score 15 TDs this season. He certainly has shown the ability in the past. My problem with predicting such a lofty number outright is that Randy Moss hasn't given me any reason to think he will perform at that level since 2004. We wouldn't predict Jamal Lewis to run for 2,000 yards again, would we? It could happen, and he's done it in the past, but we haven't seen that level of play from him in some time. Same thing with Moss., IMO.

Very different scenario between Lewis and Moss.Lewis had a devastating knee injury. Moss didn't.Lewis was playng in the same offense for the same team. Moss wasn't.Lewis plays a position that ages quickly. Moss doesn't.Apples and oranges.

 

[switz]

There are reasons not to like Moss, but age shouldn't be one of them. The guy is only 30 years old, and if you look at recent history, there have been plenty of 30+ WR's cracking top 10, even top 3. Last year, Owens & Harrison ended up 1 & 2 (non-ppr), and they were 34 & 33, respectively. Not to mention Holt & Driver (who are both older than Moss) landed in the top 10. Two years ago, when Joey Galloway was left for dead at age 34 because he was injury prone & washed up, ended up #5.Bottom line is that while Moss may not get back to top 10, he surely is capable of it and is definitely NOT over the hill. In fact, at age 30 he may still have several very productive years ahead of him based on the facts stated above. To say Randy's talent level has been "lost" with age is absurd IMO.

Receivers are one of the positions least affected by age.

 

[John Mamula]

There are reasons not to like Moss, but age shouldn't be one of them. The guy is only 30 years old, and if you look at recent history, there have been plenty of 30+ WR's cracking top 10, even top 3. Last year, Owens & Harrison ended up 1 & 2 (non-ppr), and they were 34 & 33, respectively. Not to mention Holt & Driver (who are both older than Moss) landed in the top 10. Two years ago, when Joey Galloway was left for dead at age 34 because he was injury prone & washed up, ended up #5.Bottom line is that while Moss may not get back to top 10, he surely is capable of it and is definitely NOT over the hill. In fact, at age 30 he may still have several very productive years ahead of him based on the facts stated above. To say Randy's talent level has been "lost" with age is absurd IMO.

Receivers are one of the positions least affected by age.

I agree with this, but as they age they need to work harder to get their receptions. This work ethic is one of Randy's biggest concerns.

 

[Wreckincrew]

There are reasons not to like Moss, but age shouldn't be one of them. The guy is only 30 years old, and if you look at recent history, there have been plenty of 30+ WR's cracking top 10, even top 3. Last year, Owens & Harrison ended up 1 & 2 (non-ppr), and they were 34 & 33, respectively. Not to mention Holt & Driver (who are both older than Moss) landed in the top 10. Two years ago, when Joey Galloway was left for dead at age 34 because he was injury prone & washed up, ended up #5.Bottom line is that while Moss may not get back to top 10, he surely is capable of it and is definitely NOT over the hill. In fact, at age 30 he may still have several very productive years ahead of him based on the facts stated above. To say Randy's talent level has been "lost" with age is absurd IMO.

Receivers are one of the positions least affected by age.

I agree with this, but as they age they need to work harder to get their receptions. This work ethic is one of Randy's biggest concerns.

His health, and more specifically his back, is my biggest concern. #2 is a winning team that he is contributing to. If he can still command a double team then running him upfield on fly patterns 5 consecutive pass plays to clear out an area for someone else will not help his attitude. If he can get into the flow of the game and keep his back loose he can be the best receiver in the NFL and thus reach the 1000 yd & double digit TD marks being thrown about in this thread.

 

[gianmarco]

Sorry, I was looking for the Ben Watson 2006 thread, this one will do, I guess.

12 TDs? Really?

So.........



The Pats are going to drastically change their offensive philosophy, that has served them well through numerous championships,

Randy Moss is going to get religion, straighten up and fly right, for the first time since junior high school,

He is going to avoid injury, for the first time in 3 years,

as well as resume catching the ball, a practice he forgot last season?

They already have. They went and signed 2 big name WR's (well, Stallworth isn't a big name but still an improvement over anything they've ever had). If you're the Pats and you're content just spreading it around to mediocre WR's, then why go out and make the signings of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker like they did?

 

[Bankerguy]

Dear Baby Jeebus,

Please have ESPN fire Mort so he can go work for a prominate booke maker in Vegas.

Boatloads.

 

[LHUCKS]

I have a theory that tall WRs(6'2" plus) are more likely to have shorter careers than moderately sized WRs...with the dataset only applying to Pro Bowl WRs.

 

[switz]

I have a theory that tall WRs(6'2" plus) are more likely to have shorter careers than moderately sized WRs...with the dataset only applying to Pro Bowl WRs.

 

[Gr00vus]

the field. Bottom line Moss has not been getting separation as much over the past few years than he did at 25.

I've had Moss on at least one of my rosters the last few years and have seen many of his games during that span and this statement is painfully true.Him giving up on plays probably exacerbates the effect of this as he didn't outcompete guys as often these last few years either, which he'll need to do if he's going to be effective while not getting separation.He's had some injuries which I think have diminished his skills, particularly the back/butt problem he had.12 TD's is his ceiling - I figure 8 is reasonable.Honestly, this past offseason the Pats looked a bit like a desperate team to me. I understand they're the favorites right now (anyone remember who the preseason favorite was last year?), but I can see them disappointing in general this year, and I think Moss could be a big reason why.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

You guys are awfully optimistic

The only way Moss gets to 13 TDs is

- if he stays healthy and motivated AND

- if he hasn't lost any of his speed AND

- if there's no learning curve in the offense and he clicks with Brady from day 1 AND

- if Brady & Belichick decide to abandon their "spread the wealth" offensive philosophy. Someone said that they don't want to hear this because Brady will throw it to whoever is open. That's true. If Moss scores some early TDs he will be double-teamed+, leaving the other options open. Brady will find those other options. Moss will not be more "open" with 2 or 3 guys on him than everyone else who has 1 guy on him.

I don't see any way all of that happens and if it doesn't he's not scoring 13 TDs

 

[Buckna]

Sorry, I was looking for the Ben Watson 2006 thread, this one will do, I guess.

12 TDs? Really?

So.........



The Pats are going to drastically change their offensive philosophy, that has served them well through numerous championships,

Randy Moss is going to get religion, straighten up and fly right, for the first time since junior high school,

He is going to avoid injury, for the first time in 3 years,

as well as resume catching the ball, a practice he forgot last season?

They already have. They went and signed 2 big name WR's (well, Stallworth isn't a big name but still an improvement over anything they've ever had). If you're the Pats and you're content just spreading it around to mediocre WR's, then why go out and make the signings of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker like they did?

See, I don't think they've changed their strategy AT ALL. I think people are greatly overestimating the value of Moss, Stallworth and Welker (I mean Welker, c'mon!) Moss was widely available for trade last year and the Pats gave up a lowly 4th round pick. He then agreed to restructure his contract to a 1yr $3M deal. That's not exactly the kind of money a BIG NAME WR commands.Stallworth was considered an injury riddled bust before being shipped off to the Eagles where he promptly injured his hamstring again. They were so impressed with him they let him walk after 1 season. People get wrapped up in the $30M total contract number he signed with the Pats, but only $3.5M of that is guaranteed, the rest is very incentive based and apparantly the Pats can cut him with very minor consequences.

See, it looks to me that the Pats are once again grabbing cast off, washed up WR's. Guys with possible big upside for very little cost. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of them enjoys a resurgence, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are out of the league in another year or two either.

 

[Raider Nation]

Erik Kuselius: "If you were in Vegas and had to set the under/over for Randy Moss touchdowns this year, what would the number be?"

Mort: "12." ( )

EK: <after a stunned pause> "12??? But Mort, 13 led the NFL last year."

Mort: "Yeah, I know... but Brady [blah blah blah]... and he'll bounce back [stammer stammer]....."

I almost drove off the road. Stick to dogfighting updates, fella.

So what is your o/u?

7.5. But I expect him to miss 3 or 4 games here and there.

Right on cue.....

Randy Moss missed the Patriots' morning practice on Thursday after injuring his left hamstring on Wednesday.

 

[j3r3m3y]

You guys are awfully optimisticThe only way Moss gets to 13 TDs is - if he stays healthy and motivated AND- if he hasn't lost any of his speed AND- if there's no learning curve in the offense and he clicks with Brady from day 1 AND- if Brady & Belichick decide to abandon their "spread the wealth" offensive philosophy. Someone said that they don't want to hear this because Brady will throw it to whoever is open. That's true. If Moss scores some early TDs he will be double-teamed+, leaving the other options open. Brady will find those other options. Moss will not be more "open" with 2 or 3 guys on him than everyone else who has 1 guy on him.I don't see any way all of that happens and if it doesn't he's not scoring 13 TDs

Yep, I will take "under" on 13 in a heartbeat.

 

[switz]

Sorry, I was looking for the Ben Watson 2006 thread, this one will do, I guess.

12 TDs? Really?

So.........



The Pats are going to drastically change their offensive philosophy, that has served them well through numerous championships,

Randy Moss is going to get religion, straighten up and fly right, for the first time since junior high school,

He is going to avoid injury, for the first time in 3 years,

as well as resume catching the ball, a practice he forgot last season?

They already have. They went and signed 2 big name WR's (well, Stallworth isn't a big name but still an improvement over anything they've ever had). If you're the Pats and you're content just spreading it around to mediocre WR's, then why go out and make the signings of Moss, Stallworth, and Welker like they did?

See, I don't think they've changed their strategy AT ALL. I think people are greatly overestimating the value of Moss, Stallworth and Welker (I mean Welker, c'mon!) Moss was widely available for trade last year and the Pats gave up a lowly 4th round pick. He then agreed to restructure his contract to a 1yr $3M deal. That's not exactly the kind of money a BIG NAME WR commands.Stallworth was considered an injury riddled bust before being shipped off to the Eagles where he promptly injured his hamstring again. They were so impressed with him they let him walk after 1 season. People get wrapped up in the $30M total contract number he signed with the Pats, but only $3.5M of that is guaranteed, the rest is very incentive based and apparantly the Pats can cut him with very minor consequences.

See, it looks to me that the Pats are once again grabbing cast off, washed up WR's. Guys with possible big upside for very little cost. I wouldn't be surprised if one or two of them enjoys a resurgence, but I wouldn't be surprised if they are out of the league in another year or two either.

Couldn't disagree more. Never have the Pats signed WRs with the calibre of Moss or Stallowrth before. They've always added complementary WRs to their existing corps, not totally replaced their starting WRs.Moss, Stallworth, and Welker are expected to walk in as #1, #2, #3 respectively. That's a huge difference.