Denver @ KC Arrowhead TNF (1 Viewer)

[Hot Diggity Dog]

That's not on Reid, gotta have ball security on that one. Given what Denver just did on offense have to take a play or two to see what happens and if you can get in position to kick a field goal. Denver wins the toss how sure are you that you will see the ball again? Rough outcome but right call.

Last year NFL teams averaged a score on 35% of their possessions and scored a TD on 22% of their possessions. So you had about a 78% chance of seeing the ball in OT, much better than the 0% chance of scoring when you call a draw with 30 seconds left and the guy fumbles.

So KC had a 35% of scoring on their possession. How often do nfl rbs fumble? It's not 35% of their carries. Aren't you the guy that was saying Pittsburgh is more of a contender than Denver like a week ago?

You have to consider all variables including how much time is remaining and field position, KC probably had about a 15% chance of scoring I'd guess.

You also have to consider how tired your defense is, how effective your opponents offense has been in the game etc. And 15% has to be greater than a chance of a fumble. Run that same play 100 times Charles doesn't fumble anything like 15 times.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Of course fumbling is terrible, when isn't a fumble terrible?

When your coach puts you in a position to fumble, he deserves part of the blame. This isn't that difficult to understand. 10000000000% sure of this.

Aka the Joe Pisarcik Theorem.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

That's not on Reid, gotta have ball security on that one. Given what Denver just did on offense have to take a play or two to see what happens and if you can get in position to kick a field goal. Denver wins the toss how sure are you that you will see the ball again? Rough outcome but right call.

Last year NFL teams averaged a score on 35% of their possessions and scored a TD on 22% of their possessions. So you had about a 78% chance of seeing the ball in OT, much better than the 0% chance of scoring when you call a draw with 30 seconds left and the guy fumbles.

So KC had a 35% of scoring on their possession. How often do nfl rbs fumble? It's not 35% of their carries. Aren't you the guy that was saying Pittsburgh is more of a contender than Denver like a week ago?

You have to consider all variables including how much time is remaining and field position, KC probably had about a 15% chance of scoring I'd guess.

You also have to consider how tired your defense is, how effective your opponents offense has been in the game etc. And 15% has to be greater than a chance of a fumble. Run that same play 100 times Charles doesn't fumble anything like 15 times.

Run that play zero times and Charles doesn't fumble and you go to OT with a 78% chance of getting at least one possession to win the game with no time constraints. On the road you go for it, at home you take a knee and play the percentages which are in your favor. Reid blew it, as did charles.

 

[Hot Diggity Dog]

That's not on Reid, gotta have ball security on that one. Given what Denver just did on offense have to take a play or two to see what happens and if you can get in position to kick a field goal. Denver wins the toss how sure are you that you will see the ball again? Rough outcome but right call.

Last year NFL teams averaged a score on 35% of their possessions and scored a TD on 22% of their possessions. So you had about a 78% chance of seeing the ball in OT, much better than the 0% chance of scoring when you call a draw with 30 seconds left and the

So KC had a 35% of scoring on their possession. How often do nfl rbs fumble? It's not 35% of their carries. Aren't you the guy that was saying Pittsburgh is more of a contender than Denver like a week ago?

You have to consider all variables including how much time is remaining and field position, KC probably had about a 15% chance of scoring I'd guess.

You also have to consider how tired your defense is, how effective your opponents offense has been in the game etc. And 15% has to be greater than a chance of a fumble. Run that same play 100 times Charles doesn't fumble anything like 15 times.

Run that play zero times and Charles doesn't fumble and you go to OT with a 78% chance of getting at least one possession to win the game with no time constraints. On the road you go for it, at home you take a knee and play the percentages which are in your favor. Reid blew it, as did charles.

I take my 15% chance and my 78% chance against the 0.5% he fumbles and my team doesn't recover it.

 

[renesauz]

That's not on Reid, gotta have ball security on that one. Given what Denver just did on offense have to take a play or two to see what happens and if you can get in position to kick a field goal. Denver wins the toss how sure are you that you will see the ball again? Rough outcome but right call.

Last year NFL teams averaged a score on 35% of their possessions and scored a TD on 22% of their possessions. So you had about a 78% chance of seeing the ball in OT, much better than the 0% chance of scoring when you call a draw with 30 seconds left and the guy fumbles.

So KC had a 35% of scoring on their possession. How often do nfl rbs fumble? It's not 35% of their carries. Aren't you the guy that was saying Pittsburgh is more of a contender than Denver like a week ago?

You have to consider all variables including how much time is remaining and field position, KC probably had about a 15% chance of scoring I'd guess.

You also have to consider how tired your defense is, how effective your opponents offense has been in the game etc. And 15% has to be greater than a chance of a fumble. Run that same play 100 times Charles doesn't fumble anything like 15 times.

Run that play zero times and Charles doesn't fumble and you go to OT with a 78% chance of getting at least one possession to win the game with no time constraints. On the road you go for it, at home you take a knee and play the percentages which are in your favor. Reid blew it, as did charles.

You're really bad at odds here. Even a 10% chance at getting into FG range more than overcomes the low odds of a fumble. And if they don't get into FG range...the odds of an OT win DONT CHANGE>

IE: As long as the odds of getting a FG are higher than the odds of a turnover, than running a real play is the right call. And a draw play against a prevent D is a great way to open up that kind of drive. The odds of Jamaal Charles fumbling away the ball KNOWING he has to protect the ball at all costs have to be very very low....far less than 10%, more like in the 1% area.

Anyone who thinks the Chiefs had less than a 1% chance to get into FG range with a minute + on the clock and a timeout is delusional.

 

[Insein]

Agree with the playcalling being really bad. If that was my team I'd be more mad at the coach.

Yea but they did win the game once they started letting Peyton play the way he has for the last 17 years.

 

[Juzaba]

You're really bad at odds here. Even a 10% chance at getting into FG range more than overcomes the low odds of a fumble. And if they don't get into FG range...the odds of an OT win DONT CHANGE>

IE: As long as the odds of getting a FG are higher than the odds of a turnover, than running a real play is the right call. And a draw play against a prevent D is a great way to open up that kind of drive. The odds of Jamaal Charles fumbling away the ball KNOWING he has to protect the ball at all costs have to be very very low....far less than 10%, more like in the 1% area.

Anyone who thinks the Chiefs had less than a 1% chance to get into FG range with a minute + on the clock and a timeout is delusional.

There are other considerations. You've got another couple plays worth of opportunity for people to get hurt. And I wouldn't suggest that KCs offense is capable of moving 50 yards in 40-odd seconds with 0 TOs (assuming you use your last TO to stop the clock once the run play is over).

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

That's not on Reid, gotta have ball security on that one. Given what Denver just did on offense have to take a play or two to see what happens and if you can get in position to kick a field goal. Denver wins the toss how sure are you that you will see the ball again? Rough outcome but right call.

Last year NFL teams averaged a score on 35% of their possessions and scored a TD on 22% of their possessions. So you had about a 78% chance of seeing the ball in OT, much better than the 0% chance of scoring when you call a draw with 30 seconds left and the guy fumbles.

So KC had a 35% of scoring on their possession. How often do nfl rbs fumble? It's not 35% of their carries. Aren't you the guy that was saying Pittsburgh is more of a contender than Denver like a week ago?

You have to consider all variables including how much time is remaining and field position, KC probably had about a 15% chance of scoring I'd guess.

You also have to consider how tired your defense is, how effective your opponents offense has been in the game etc. And 15% has to be greater than a chance of a fumble. Run that same play 100 times Charles doesn't fumble anything like 15 times.

Run that play zero times and Charles doesn't fumble and you go to OT with a 78% chance of getting at least one possession to win the game with no time constraints. On the road you go for it, at home you take a knee and play the percentages which are in your favor. Reid blew it, as did charles.

You're really bad at odds here. Even a 10% chance at getting into FG range more than overcomes the low odds of a fumble. And if they don't get into FG range...the odds of an OT win DONT CHANGE>

IE: As long as the odds of getting a FG are higher than the odds of a turnover, than running a real play is the right call. And a draw play against a prevent D is a great way to open up that kind of drive. The odds of Jamaal Charles fumbling away the ball KNOWING he has to protect the ball at all costs have to be very very low....far less than 10%, more like in the 1% area.

Anyone who thinks the Chiefs had less than a 1% chance to get into FG range with a minute + on the clock and a timeout is delusional.

There were about 35 seconds left. So what would you say the odds are? Same circumstances INCLUDING handing the ball off as your first play. With 35 seconds and one timeout, and you hand the ball off on first down at your own 20, how many times out of 100 would that team score?

See, while it's true that the odds might normally favor scoring over a fumble, there are other factors. Charles had already fumbled once (not a huge deal, but something to consider). And at the end of regulation, the risk of a fumble means you would lose the game. It's not halftime. So while failing to score doesn't hurt you, losing a fumble ends the game at that part of the field.

In other words, your 10 percent > one percent doesn't factor in the consequences. Scoring is great. Not scoring still leaves you okay. But losing the fumble means you lose a division game at home. Taking a knee only forfeits the chance at winning in regulation. As you said, it doesn't affect the odds in OT.

If you're going to run on that first play with 35 seconds on the clock, I think you might as well take a knee.

 

[rockaction]

I am literally in a position to murder tonight. Why did my wife put me in this spot??

Seriously, I get what DD is saying. You are either playing for OT or not. You don't middle ground it as they did.

Honestly, Jamaal Charles was probably averaging as many yards per carry to that point as Alex Smith was averaging per attempt. I can't hate on the decision to call a relatively safe play that put the ball in the hands of their HoF-caliber, super-fast, big-play running back just to see what happens. If something's there, then maybe you re-evaluate and start taking shots. If nothing's there, then nothing lost, let the clock run out and see what overtime holds.

Charles averaged 5.9 a carry with two turnovers

Smith averaged 8.5 yards per attempt (sack yardage included and sack attempts factored in - it's AY/A) with two picks

Running the football was not safer today, nor was it conducive to gaining more yards per attempt.

Pass plays can also be inherently more easily designed to stretch the field, so it's not like the Chiefs would have to necessarily run medium or short-depth routes to get open. Things like route depth are more easily adjusted so that the probability of a bigger gain is much easier to influence with play calling than is running the football. So it's really not a constant that just because earlier in the game the Chiefs chose to run certain route depths or route trees that they'd have to run those again at the end of the game. Which is a bit moot considering that the AY/A was 2.5 yards average difference with about twenty attempts per player.

It's not hindsight on my end in not liking the call; it's that Reid half-assed his call like so many other coaches do at the end of a half or game, and he got very burned.

 

[Billy Bats]

Peyton.. Um, yea he's back. What an incredible ####### win

Go Broncs

I have just loved reading all the so called experts talking about how he was done.Tonight he had his bad moments, but this was a big middle finger to everyone. Denver just got thru two huge challenges and they are 2-0.

He should've thrown 5 interceptions with a second pick 6. Quite the middle finger. Can't survive too long with a performance he had tonight, along with not looking too great week 1. He's trending the wrong way.

 

[Sabertooth]

Manning looked like he was lobbing every pass.

 

[JaxBill]

Peyton.. Um, yea he's back. What an incredible ####### win

Go Broncs

I have just loved reading all the so called experts talking about how he was done.Tonight he had his bad moments, but this was a big middle finger to everyone. Denver just got thru two huge challenges and they are 2-0.

He should've thrown 5 interceptions with a second pick 6. Quite the middle finger. Can't survive too long with a performance he had tonight, along with not looking too great week 1. He's trending the wrong way.

Kubiak's first-half playcalling that highlighted Peyton's weaknesses made me wonder if he was looking for an excuse to go to Osweiler.

 

[rick6668]

There's not a 0% chance of fumbling even if you are taking a knee.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DWGCeMNmyV0

Granted Rivers wasn't technically taking a knee, but it's about as close as you can get. Looks like he was going to take a step to his left and go down to set up the field goal attempt in the middle of the field.

 

[Shutout]

Kansas city seems to be the catalyst for turning "doomed" seasons around. Broncos probably go on a Patriots-esque run and win the SB.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Why do you run a play instead of taking a knee? Check out the end of the first half in Super Bowl 38: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200402010car.htm

I also don't remember many claiming that taking the knee at the end of regulation was the correct decision when Denver did it against Baltimore in the playoffs: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201301120den.htm

SBXXXVIII Carolina got the ball on their 47. Much different.

Isn't this the same as Joe Pisarcik?

The only difference being that the Chiefs were going to OT, not closing out the win.

It's 35 seconds left, if the Chiefs are going to try for a FG, then throw the ball, unless the idea is that Charles is going to break one. If they run the ball, they might as well knee it.

By the way this is Andy Reid we're talking about here.

 

[Pipes]

Charles is the most explosive back in the NFL so the odds on him busting a 20 yard + run are probably similar to Smith completing a forward pass of that length. This is Alex Smith we're taking about. I suppose he could've dumped one off to Kelce.

 

[stbugs]

Why do you run a play instead of taking a knee? Check out the end of the first half in Super Bowl 38: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200402010car.htm

I also don't remember many claiming that taking the knee at the end of regulation was the correct decision when Denver did it against Baltimore in the playoffs: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201301120den.htm

SBXXXVIII Carolina got the ball on their 47. Much different.

Isn't this the same as Joe Pisarcik?

The only difference being that the Chiefs were going to OT, not closing out the win.

It's 35 seconds left, if the Chiefs are going to try for a FG, then throw the ball, unless the idea is that Charles is going to break one. If they run the ball, they might as well knee it.

By the way this is Andy Reid we're talking about here.

Agree completely. That play in the SB was completely different. Even if he fumbles like last night, The Patriots have one play, i.e. a hail mary or hope for a defensive PI. So, not even close to the same situation, which is if Charles fumbles the Broncos win the game (easy FG if not returned for a TD).

With 35 seconds and no timeouts, I see no reason to run from your 20 yard line. If you are running, you are basically saying we want to go to overtime. Sure, you hope Charles can break one, but even though Charles looked good, the Broncos have a good D and I would say the chance of a fumble > 80 yard TD, especially with the Broncos in prevent D.

 

[Jeremy]

Peyton.. Um, yea he's back. What an incredible ####### win

Go Broncs

I have just loved reading all the so called experts talking about how he was done.Tonight he had his bad moments, but this was a big middle finger to everyone. Denver just got thru two huge challenges and they are 2-0.

He should've thrown 5 interceptions with a second pick 6. Quite the middle finger. Can't survive too long with a performance he had tonight, along with not looking too great week 1. He's trending the wrong way.

This is the way it always is with 4th quarter comebacks. Everyone forgets about the mistakes and bad throws that were made earlier in the game because they were the hero at the end.

If I was a Manning owner I'd be looking to sell high. He's still brilliant, but his arm strength would make Chad Pennington snort in derision. Like you said, he was very lucky not to have had many more turnovers in that game.

 

[Old Smiley]

I couldn't watch the game. Is there anything to the jokes people were making about Manning being effective doing Manning stuff and sucking doing Kubiak stuff?

 

[Jrodicus]

That's not on Reid, gotta have ball security on that one. Given what Denver just did on offense have to take a play or two to see what happens and if you can get in position to kick a field goal. Denver wins the toss how sure are you that you will see the ball again? Rough outcome but right call.

Last year NFL teams averaged a score on 35% of their possessions and scored a TD on 22% of their possessions. So you had about a 78% chance of seeing the ball in OT, much better than the 0% chance of scoring when you call a draw with 30 seconds left and the guy fumbles.

So teams scored on 57% of their possessions. That means they had a 57% chance of scoring if they ran the draw play there instead of a 0% chance of scoring if they take a knee, right?

 

[Ditkaless Wonders]

That's not on Reid, gotta have ball security on that one. Given what Denver just did on offense have to take a play or two to see what happens and if you can get in position to kick a field goal. Denver wins the toss how sure are you that you will see the ball again? Rough outcome but right call.

Last year NFL teams averaged a score on 35% of their possessions and scored a TD on 22% of their possessions. So you had about a 78% chance of seeing the ball in OT, much better than the 0% chance of scoring when you call a draw with 30 seconds left and the guy fumbles.

So teams scored on 57% of their possessions. That means they had a 57% chance of scoring if they ran the draw play there instead of a 0% chance of scoring if they take a knee, right?

Math may not be your thing.

 

[Old Smiley]

Waiting for Bill Barnwell's take. Nothing up yet.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Peyton.. Um, yea he's back. What an incredible ####### win

Go Broncs

I have just loved reading all the so called experts talking about how he was done.Tonight he had his bad moments, but this was a big middle finger to everyone. Denver just got thru two huge challenges and they are 2-0.

He should've thrown 5 interceptions with a second pick 6. Quite the middle finger. Can't survive too long with a performance he had tonight, along with not looking too great week 1. He's trending the wrong way.

This is the way it always is with 4th quarter comebacks. Everyone forgets about the mistakes and bad throws that were made earlier in the game because they were the hero at the end.

If I was a Manning owner I'd be looking to sell high. He's still brilliant, but his arm strength would make Chad Pennington snort in derision. Like you said, he was very lucky not to have had many more turnovers in that game.

Not me. Totally agree Peyton looked like #### for most of the game. But as the game went along, I thought timing and accuracy seemed to return. That last drive was definitely epic Manning.

Not sure if its age finally catching up with him (as the cracks were beginning to show at the end of last season), Kubiak's stubbornness to take the foot off the breaks or a little of both. All I know is, when Manning is left to call things more on his own, its a pretty damn successful recipe, and it appears that was the case in the fourth quarter last night.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Why do you run a play instead of taking a knee? Check out the end of the first half in Super Bowl 38: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200402010car.htm

I also don't remember many claiming that taking the knee at the end of regulation was the correct decision when Denver did it against Baltimore in the playoffs: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201301120den.htm

SBXXXVIII Carolina got the ball on their 47. Much different.

Isn't this the same as Joe Pisarcik?

The only difference being that the Chiefs were going to OT, not closing out the win.

It's 35 seconds left, if the Chiefs are going to try for a FG, then throw the ball, unless the idea is that Charles is going to break one. If they run the ball, they might as well knee it.

By the way this is Andy Reid we're talking about here.

Agree completely. That play in the SB was completely different. Even if he fumbles like last night, The Patriots have one play, i.e. a hail mary or hope for a defensive PI. So, not even close to the same situation, which is if Charles fumbles the Broncos win the game (easy FG if not returned for a TD).

With 35 seconds and no timeouts, I see no reason to run from your 20 yard line. If you are running, you are basically saying we want to go to overtime. Sure, you hope Charles can break one, but even though Charles looked good, the Broncos have a good D and I would say the chance of a fumble > 80 yard TD, especially with the Broncos in prevent D.

Because teams do this all the time and end up getting in range for a FG attempt.

Do people seriously not watch football? We see this all the time and a lot of the time it ends up leading to a FG attempt. It backfiring 1 flukey time does not cancel out all the times throughout history that it has led to points.

 

[Jack White]

Why do you run a play instead of taking a knee? Check out the end of the first half in Super Bowl 38: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200402010car.htm

I also don't remember many claiming that taking the knee at the end of regulation was the correct decision when Denver did it against Baltimore in the playoffs: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201301120den.htm

Why do you run a play instead of taking a knee? Check out the end of the first half in Super Bowl 38: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/200402010car.htm

I also don't remember many claiming that taking the knee at the end of regulation was the correct decision when Denver did it against Baltimore in the playoffs: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201301120den.htm

SBXXXVIII Carolina got the ball on their 47. Much different.

Isn't this the same as Joe Pisarcik?

The only difference being that the Chiefs were going to OT, not closing out the win.

It's 35 seconds left, if the Chiefs are going to try for a FG, then throw the ball, unless the idea is that Charles is going to break one. If they run the ball, they might as well knee it.

By the way this is Andy Reid we're talking about here.

Agree completely. That play in the SB was completely different. Even if he fumbles like last night, The Patriots have one play, i.e. a hail mary or hope for a defensive PI. So, not even close to the same situation, which is if Charles fumbles the Broncos win the game (easy FG if not returned for a TD).With 35 seconds and no timeouts, I see no reason to run from your 20 yard line. If you are running, you are basically saying we want to go to overtime. Sure, you hope Charles can break one, but even though Charles looked good, the Broncos have a good D and I would say the chance of a fumble > 80 yard TD, especially with the Broncos in prevent D.

Because teams do this all the time and end up getting in range for a FG attempt.

Do people seriously not watch football? We see this all the time and a lot of the time it ends up leading to a FG attempt. It backfiring 1 flukey time does not cancel out all the times throughout history that it has led to points.

You're not going to get in FG range in 30 seconds running from your own 20. Either you throw the ball and try to score, or you take a knee and go to overtime. This game is Exhibit A on why.

 

[sharptongued1]

Way more blame on Charles than Reid. Running is fine there if you pick up 15-25 yards on a draw then you can take a shot at a few passes to get in FG range.

What you DON'T do in that situation is try to fight for an extra meaningless yard at the LoS and leave the ball insecure enough that it can be tapped out by a finger.

This...dont understand the Reid bashing. Charles is the one who blew the game.

Because as a coach you are supposed to do the calculus on odds there, and come to the conclusion you go to OT at home. That play call was stupid, either throw down field to try to win or take a knee.

Draw is the standard play, ESPECIALLY with a dynamic RB, because the defense has no choice but the defend the deep pass. It's not at all uncommon for a RB to rip off 15 or 20 yards in that situation. If he does, you're than in a MUCH better position to get aggressive with a play call deep downfield. RB's in that spot have to know that protecting the ball is far more important than gaining an extra yard or two.

Fumblin in that spot is inexcusable. It's 10000% on Jamaal Charles in that situation, NOT the play call.

Alex Smith...

 

[rockaction]

Did that Denver guy just do the McCringleberry celebration?

Just watched Von Miller do this again and looked up Hingle McCringleberry.

So funny.

Miller is absurd. The camera has to cut away. Even better: NFL.com tells us to "watch Von Miller's celebration..."

I can no longer link to the NFL.com, but here's the Denver Post. I can almost hear Jim Nantz laugh in the booth.

http://blogs.denverpost.com/broncos/2015/09/17/watch-von-miller-channels-key-and-peele-after-sacking-alex-smith/35596/