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Denver Receivers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ronerochs
- Start date
Anonymous Internet User
Footballguy
I think it would be a big risk thinking that Walker can be as productive as his 2004 season in Denver.1) Jake Plummer is not Brett Favre. In 2004, Favre used Walker as his go-to guy going downfield. I don't have stats available, but I'm sure Walker's targets in 2004 were leading the league or nearly leading. That's not likely to happen in Denver, IMO.2) Rod Smith has been Plummer's go-to guy for a few years now. They have a repetoire going - something not easy to break up without significant playtime together with Walker.3) Smith showed almost no signs of slowing down last year. He's yet another year older - will he be another Jerry Rice in terms of agelessness?IMO - Smith is a good value in round 7 or 8. Walker is good value at about the same time, and I think he's going too early.
moleculo
Footballguy
It wouldn't suprise me to see both Walker and Smith around 1000 yards, with Rod having the edge in receptions and Walker with the edge in TD's. I see them both at about the same level, fantasy wise. Too close to make a clear distinction as to who will perform better, at least.
SSOG
Moderator
I've been predicting Rod Smith to hold off all challengers for years now, but I think this is the year I step off that position. Judging from Lammey's camp reports, I think this is finally the year that someone in Denver outscores Smith.
I project Smith to 900-1100 yards and a half-dozen scores. I really don't know how to project Walker, based on changing teams and the knee injury and all other factors. He could end up with 900 yards or 1200 yards and neither would surprise me.
I think Smith represents good value in round 7-8. I think Walker's a decent enough pick in the 4th, although he really starts representing value in the 5th or 6th.
I project Smith to 900-1100 yards and a half-dozen scores. I really don't know how to project Walker, based on changing teams and the knee injury and all other factors. He could end up with 900 yards or 1200 yards and neither would surprise me.
I think Smith represents good value in round 7-8. I think Walker's a decent enough pick in the 4th, although he really starts representing value in the 5th or 6th.
Cecil Lammey
Footballguy
If healthy, Javon Walker should be the #1 fantasy WR in Denver. I do believe that Rod and Javon will be close yardage wise, but Javon is a playmaker, and should get more TD's than Rod.
Rod is slowing down (a little), and Javon has looked fantastic at times. Edge = Javon.
Rod is slowing down (a little), and Javon has looked fantastic at times. Edge = Javon.
SaintArnold
Footballguy
I agree with the other posts here- I can see the both getting 900-1000 yards, with Walker having the edge in TDs. I think Smith is a much better value at his ADP though, and is a fantastic WR3 option. I'm much less excited about Javon as a WR1/WR2.
The player that I think will benefit the most from this situation is Plummer, actually. I really like him at his current ADP.
The player that I think will benefit the most from this situation is Plummer, actually. I really like him at his current ADP.
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Gbagzz
Footballguy
Walker - No Brainer
There was a thread like this last year where people were touting Leslie to supplant Smith in targets/stats... etc... and we all know what happened there.
Walker is a pure talent. Farve didn't make him better, Walker is for real. Assuming Plummer can get him the ball he should have more yards, better YAC and more TD's than Smith. Smith might have more receptions b/c Smith is Plummer's go-to-guy on 3rd downs and is more of a posession guy at his age. I would not worry about Walker. You wont have to draft him as high as you did last year.
There was a thread like this last year where people were touting Leslie to supplant Smith in targets/stats... etc... and we all know what happened there.
Walker is a pure talent. Farve didn't make him better, Walker is for real. Assuming Plummer can get him the ball he should have more yards, better YAC and more TD's than Smith. Smith might have more receptions b/c Smith is Plummer's go-to-guy on 3rd downs and is more of a posession guy at his age. I would not worry about Walker. You wont have to draft him as high as you did last year.
Gbagzz
Footballguy
I agree about the Plummer part.
wannabee
Footballguy
Smith's ADP is 75 overall while Walker's is 46. Even without "value" as part of the equation, I would go with Rod. Even last year, Smith had a good year. Check out his career stats below:
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1995 den | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 6 152 25.3 1 |
| 1996 den | 10 | 1 1 1.0 0 | 16 237 14.8 2 |
| 1997 den | 16 | 5 16 3.2 0 | 70 1180 16.9 12 |
| 1998 den | 16 | 6 63 10.5 0 | 86 1222 14.2 6 |
| 1999 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 79 1020 12.9 4 |
| 2000 den | 16 | 6 99 16.5 1 | 100 1602 16.0 8 |
| 2001 den | 15 | 3 27 9.0 0 | 113 1343 11.9 11 |
| 2002 den | 16 | 6 9 1.5 0 | 89 1027 11.5 5 |
| 2003 den | 15 | 10 98 9.8 0 | 74 845 11.4 3 |
| 2004 den | 16 | 5 33 6.6 0 | 79 1144 14.5 7 |
| 2005 den | 16 | 1 7 7.0 0 | 85 1105 13.0 6 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 167 | 43 353 8.2 1 | 797 10877 13.6 65 |
Smith, while 36 years old, has missed a total of 2 games in 9 years. In addition, I expect the bronco passing game to throw more in 2006 than 2005 .... due to a less certain and less stable running game. IMO, we all take what Mike Anderson did last year for granted. He had a great year. Bell had a good year. I just do not see the Broncos having two RBs with those kind of years in 2006.
I will take Rod Smith - both in production and value.
ETA: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/SmitRo01.htm
+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Rushing | Receiving |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| Year TM | G | Att Yards Y/A TD | Rec Yards Y/R TD |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| 1995 den | 16 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 6 152 25.3 1 |
| 1996 den | 10 | 1 1 1.0 0 | 16 237 14.8 2 |
| 1997 den | 16 | 5 16 3.2 0 | 70 1180 16.9 12 |
| 1998 den | 16 | 6 63 10.5 0 | 86 1222 14.2 6 |
| 1999 den | 15 | 0 0 0.0 0 | 79 1020 12.9 4 |
| 2000 den | 16 | 6 99 16.5 1 | 100 1602 16.0 8 |
| 2001 den | 15 | 3 27 9.0 0 | 113 1343 11.9 11 |
| 2002 den | 16 | 6 9 1.5 0 | 89 1027 11.5 5 |
| 2003 den | 15 | 10 98 9.8 0 | 74 845 11.4 3 |
| 2004 den | 16 | 5 33 6.6 0 | 79 1144 14.5 7 |
| 2005 den | 16 | 1 7 7.0 0 | 85 1105 13.0 6 |
+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+
| TOTAL | 167 | 43 353 8.2 1 | 797 10877 13.6 65 |
Smith, while 36 years old, has missed a total of 2 games in 9 years. In addition, I expect the bronco passing game to throw more in 2006 than 2005 .... due to a less certain and less stable running game. IMO, we all take what Mike Anderson did last year for granted. He had a great year. Bell had a good year. I just do not see the Broncos having two RBs with those kind of years in 2006.
I will take Rod Smith - both in production and value.
ETA: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/SmitRo01.htm
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Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
nflguru
Footballguy
I like Walker but Smith and Plummer have been together for sometime and I dont see him moving away from him.. Last year Smith went in the 5th round (keeper league) and even Lelie was drafted higher..
Tau837
Footballguy
True, but:Smith in 7th + other 4th round pick > healthy Walker in 4th + other 7th round pick
Walker's year will be 2007. He's less than a year removed from a blown ACL and he's starting in a new offense. I'm thinking around 800 yards and 6 TD's this year. He'll be a good dynasty target late in the season as I think current owners will be disappointed he doesn't immediately bounce back to his top WR status.
Smith is once again great value in redraft this year, but next year he will be 37. The writing is on the wall and his excellent career is winding down.
Smith is once again great value in redraft this year, but next year he will be 37. The writing is on the wall and his excellent career is winding down.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Who has looked better in camp?
FFFIEND
Footballguy
Good stuff Cecil. I like your work.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Sooner or later they will be right. I think it will be this year. But I'm a Walker owner so I'm a little biased. HAving him in a dynasty league I'm not so worried about this year, but I think he will step up towards the end of the year, particularly if Smith misses time....
