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***Detroit Tigers thread: 1st pick yet again, this is not fun*** (1 Viewer)

MAC_32 said:
That team played like the spot was too big for them last night. Not concerned. Gonna take a serious choke job this weekend for us to not take the division.

Does anyone have an idea what level the playoffs will be around October 16? Late cs/early WS? Going to be in detroit for a pearl jam show and if the tigers happen to be in town the day before or after we are opening up our wallets to go.
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KC has been one of the best teams in baseball the last couple of months. It just comes down to who is playing better ball this last week. It should not be this close, but it is what it is now. Hopefully Ausmus can make some adjustments to how he uses the bullpen going into the playoffs.
 
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GAME INFORMATION

Who: Detroit Tigers (85-68, 1st in AL Central) at Kansas City Royals (83-69, 2nd in AL Central)

When: 1:10 p.m.

Where: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.

TV: Fox

Radio: 97.1 The Ticket and the Detroit Tigers radio network

STARTING PITCHERS

Detroit Tigers

Max Scherzer (16-5, 3.26 ERA)

Lifetime vs. Royals: 10-5, 3.74 ERA

Kansas City Royals

James Shields (14-7, 3.15 ERA)

Lifetime vs. Tigers: 7-5, 4.11 ERA

STARTING LINEUPS

(Statistics vs. opposing starter in parentheses)

Detroit Tigers

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (12 for 53, .226, 2 2Bs, 3 HRs, 4 RBIs)

2. Torii Hunter, RF (19 for 59, .322, 4 2Bs, 3B, 0 BBs, 13 SOs)

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B (8 for 19, .365, 2 HRs, 8 RBIs, 5 BBs, 10 SOs)

4. Victor Martinez, DH (13 for 44, .295, 4 2Bs, HR, 6 RBIs, 9 SOs)

5. J.D. Martinez, LF (5 for 15, .333, 2B, HR, 6 SOs)

6. Nick Castellanos, 3B (1 for 7, .143, 3 SOs)

7. Eugenio Suarez, SS

8. Bryan Holaday, C

9. Rajai Davis, CF (2 for 18, .111, 2B)

Kansas City Royals

1. Alcides Escobar, SS (9 for 37, .243, 2 HRs, 7 SOs)

2. Nori Aoki, RF (2 for 7, 2 BBs)

3. Josh Willingham, DH (6 for 22, .273, 2B, 2 HRs, 4 BBs, 9 SOs)

4. Alex Gordon, LF (14 for 36, .389, 4 2Bs, 3 HRs, 5 RBIs, 9 BBs, 6 SOs)

5. Salvador Perez, C (9 for 26, .346, 2 2Bs, 2 HRs)

6. Eric Hosmer, 1B (7 for 34, .206, 2 2Bs, 10 SOs)

7. Omar Infante, 2B (4 for 10, 3 RBIs)

8. Mike Moustakas, 3B (5 for 31, .161, 2B, HR, 10 SOs)

9. Jarrod Dyson, CF (2 for 16, .125)

GAME NOTES

-- The game today will provide what should be the best starting pitching matchup of the series with Max Scherzer on the mound for Detroit and James Shields starting for the Royals.

-- Alex Avila is not in the lineup today due to side effects from a concussion he suffered Sunday. Avila is 9 for 30 (.300) with two home runs in his career against Shields, so his left-handed bat might be missed today.

-- With a tough right-hander on the mound for the Royals, it's a bit surprising to see Eugenio Suarez in the lineup over Andrew Romine, who started nine times in a stretch of 10 games prior to this series. But Suarez swung the bat well Friday night and there is not a big difference in righty-lefty splits vs. Shields this season.

-- The Tigers lead the Royals by 1 1/2 games in the Central Division race, so they will be in first place Sunday regardless of the outcome of this game.

-- The forecast for Kansas City today calls for temperatures in the low 80s and a slight chance of rain early this afternoon. The chance of rain increases later in the afternoon.

 
Tigers won the central last year because they dominated the Indians (15-4 iirc) and they have crushed the Royals this year. That's how it's done and I really believe the orioles are a great matchup for them. Now to hold on. A win tomorrow and it's over imo.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Tigers won the central last year because they dominated the Indians (15-4 iirc) and they have crushed the Royals this year. That's how it's done and I really believe the orioles are a great matchup for them. Now to hold on. A win tomorrow and it's over imo.
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Yes, a win tomorrow puts them effectively 4 up and the Tigers have a simple home stand to finish out the season. Royals would have to win out their last 7 games on the road and hope the Tigers lose most of their games. It is a huge game for the Royals if they want to have any realistic shot at the Division. It would be nice to see them get a wild card. They had too good of a season to at least not get that.

 
KC got excited and that is good. Sometimes you let your little brother get excited and get ahead only to come back and take it from him and win at the end.

 
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Da Guru said:
KC got excited and that is good. Sometimes you let your little brother get excited and get ahead only to come back and take it from him and win at the end.
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If it wasn't for a careless base-running mistake by KC, today would have been a completely different game. That overturned call was huge.

 
jon_mx said:
Da Guru said:
KC got excited and that is good. Sometimes you let your little brother get excited and get ahead only to come back and take it from him and win at the end.
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If it wasn't for a careless base-running mistake by KC, today would have been a completely different game. That overturned call was huge.
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KC deserved to win today, but the Tigers have so many of those over the season that I can't feel sorry for them.

I really hope the Central gets two playoff teams though.

 
UPDATE: Miguel Cabrera was initially in the lineup at first base, but he was moved to designated hitter about 2 1/2 hours prior to first pitch. Brad Ausmus said his ankle was bothering him more this morning than it did yesterday. The lineup below reflects that change.

GAME INFORMATION

Who: Detroit Tigers (86-68, 1st in AL Central) at Kansas City Royals (83-70, 2nd in AL Central)
When: 2:10 p.m.
Where: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.
TV: Fox Sports Detroit, TBS
Radio: 97.1 The Ticket and the Detroit Tigers radio network

STARTING PITCHERS

Detroit Tigers

Rick Porcello (15-11, 3.19 ERA)
Lifetime vs. Royals: 8-4, 4.10 ERA

Kansas City Royals

Jeremy Guthrie (11-11, 4.35 ERA)
Lifetime vs. Tigers: 8-7, 4.77 ERA

STARTING LINEUPS
(Statistics vs. opposing starter in parentheses)

Detroit Tigers

1. Ian Kinsler, 2B (13 for 39, .333, 2 2Bs, 3B)
2. Torii Hunter, RF (16 for 46, .348, 3 2Bs, HR, 8 RBIs)
3. Miguel Cabrera, DH (16 for 47, .340, 2B, 3HRs, 12 RBIs)
4. Victor Martinez, 1B (11 for 32, .344, 3 2Bs)
5. J.D. Martinez, LF (4 for 15, .267, 2B, 2 HRs)
6. Nick Castellanos, 3B (4 for 7, 2 2Bs, 3 RBIs)
7. Bryan Holaday, C
8. Andrew Romine, SS (1 for 2)
9. Rajai Davis, CF (4 for 19, .211, 2B, 5 SOs)

Kansas City Royals

1. Alcides Escobar, SS (2 for 29, 6 SOs)
2. Nori Aoki, RF (0 for 8, 2 BBs, 3 SOs)
3. Lorenzo Cain, CF (2 for 8)
4. Eric Hosmer, 1B (7 for 22, .318, 2 HRs)
5. Billy Butler, DH (16 for 47, .340, 4 2Bs, HR, 8 RBIs, 10 SOs)
6. Alex Gordon, LF (11 for 37, .297, 2 2Bs, 2 HRs, 7 RBis, 8 SOs)
7. Salvador Perez, C (5 for 19, .263)
8. Omar Infante, 2B (4 for 9, .444, 3B)
9. Mike Moustakas, 3B (5 for 23, .217, 3 2Bs, 4 SOs)

GAME NOTES

-- The first four batters in the lineup for the Tigers have hit .333 or better -- all in at least 32 at-bats -- in their careers against Royals starter Jeremy Guthrie. Current members of the Tigers are batting .322 (84 for 261) with an .862 OPS against Guthrie.

-- Bryan Holaday is in the starting lineup at catcher again today. Alex Avila felt fine Saturday after going through a workout that did not include tracking a ball, which is what caused him some problems the previous two days. He is expected to take batting practice today.

-- Anibal Sanchez is scheduled to throw a simulated game this morning prior to today's game.

-- The Tigers lead the Royals by 2 1/2 games in the Central Division and can put the Royals in an extremely bad spot with a win again today.

-- Following the game today, the Tigers will have sen games remaining in the regular season, all of them at home. The Tigers open a three-game series against the Chicago White Sox on Monday, then start a four-game series Thursday against the Minnesota Twins.

-- The forecast for Kansas City calls for sunny skies and highs in the 70s.

 
Announcer: "And there is no way the runner is going to score.....but the ball gets away....

It was an aggressive play that probably should have been doubled up with Holaday going to second on a short fly ball. VMart faked the tag on third to draw the throw which ended up forcing an error.

 
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That was the slowest turn of a DP ever. Third basement double-clutches and throws an easy ball over to 2nd, who also double-clutches and throws an easy ball to 1B. Miggy has figured out how to hit with his ankle, but still can't run at all.

 
Presuming the Royals lose the suspended game tomorrow - down 2, I'm full expecting Yost to bunt if the lead off hitter walks - Deroit is up 2 games, magic number is 6, 7 home games left.

Anibal pitched a simulated game and will likely be activated this week. Looking like a RP for the playoffs.

I'm completely baffled by Ausmus' continued misuse of Soria.

 
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jon_mx said:
Doctor Detroit said:
BobbyLayne said:
I'm completely baffled by Ausmus' continued misuse of Soria.
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Yeah, makes no sense at all.
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I speculate that he is doing the best he can to try to avoid a 'closer' controversy, similar to NFL coaches who hate to have a QB controversy. Ausmus is banking that nobody can see the 800 lbs gorilla in the corner.
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Well Soria isn't pitching the 8th either, which probably should be his role if Nathan were good. Basically Ausmus is saving him for if Nathan gets in trouble, which means he's burning two pitchers for the 9th but only pitching one. It's dumb.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Bruce Dickinson said:
BobbyLayne said:
Ned Yost might be the dumbest manager I've ever seen
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You're lucky you never saw Ron Washington manage a game.Yost seems to be pretty popular with the players, but his in-game tactics have a lot of room for improvement.
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Neither of you have watched the Phillies in awhile.
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Every time I see/hear people arguing about quality of managers, I think of the scene from "Little Big League" where the new 12- year-old owner of the Twins is considering naming himself manager. "It's the American League. You've got the DH. How hard can it be?"
 
The Tigers have some issues defensively and in the bullpen. The rotation has struggled a bit. But they have been hitting the ball. Right now, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and J.D. Martinez have to be the hottest 3-4-5 combination in baseball. Cabrera is hitting .413 with a 1.203 OPS in September. Victor Martinez is batting .380 with a 1.070 OPS this month. J.D. Martinez is hitting .394 with a 1.161 OPS during that same stretch.

 
Torii Hunter only had hit yesterday, breaking his career high streak of six straight multi-hit games. September for the old man:

.321 .333 .462 .795

 
I'm sure you guys remember 1987. The Tigers lost three straight to Toronto before salvaging the Sunday game in extra innings. The Tigers entered the final week of the 1987 season 3.5 games behind. After a series against the Baltimore Orioles, the Tigers returned home trailing by a game and swept the Blue Jays. Detroit clinched the division in a 1-0 victory over Toronto in front of 51,005 fans at Tiger Stadium on Sunday afternoon, October 4. Frank Tanana went all nine innings for the complete game shutout, and outfielder Larry Herndon gave the Tigers their lone run on a second-inning home run. Detroit finished the season a Major League-best 98-64, two games ahead of Toronto.

 
Here's a quick look at the next series for the Detroit Tigers:

Opponent: Chicago White Sox

Site: Comerica Park in Detroit

Records: Tigers, 86-69 (1st in AL Central); White Sox, 71-84 (4th in AL Central)

Schedule

Monday: LHP Kyle Lobstein (1-0, 3.58 ERA) vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (0-1, 5.29 ERA), 7:08 p.m., FSD

Tuesday: LHP David Price (3-4, 4.09 ERA) vs. RHP Scott Carroll (5-10, 5.01 ERA), 7:08 p.m., FSD

Wednesday: RHP Justin Verlander (14-12, 4.68 ERA) vs. LHP Chris Sale (12-4, 2.20 ERA), 1:08 p.m., FSD, MLB Network

Scouting the White Sox: The Detroit Tigers are 15 games ahead of the Chicago White Sox in the standings, but each team has won eight games in their 16 head-to-head meetings this season. The White Sox provide at least a couple interesting challenges for Detroit. The Tigers will face left-hander Chris Sale in the series finale Wednesday, so they would be wise to not let the first two games get away from them. In addition to facing Sale once, the Tigers will almost certainly face first baseman Jose Abreu three times. Abreu will likely be the runaway winner in the American League Rookie of the Year voting and is certain to get some AL Most Valuable Player votes. Abreu is hitting .319with 35 home runs, 104 RBIs and a .978 OPS in 138 games. The White Sox are eighth in the American League in runs scored, but only the Minnesota Twins and the Texas Rangers -- a pair of last-place teams -- have allowed more runs than the White Sox have this season. Since the All-Star break, no teams have allowed more runs than the Twins and the White Sox have. That means the Tigers have a shot at scoring plenty of runs this week.

 
The way the 8th and 9th innings have been going no lead is safe. Joba looked really good at times this year but seems to have run out of gas the last month or so and Nathans tank has been on empty all year. Nathan just can`t throw enough strikes or get his fastball by anyone on a regular basis. How many times has he has 20-25 pitch innings this year? Nathan jut puts way too many runners on base.

I was surprised Ausmus went with Nathan on Saturday with a well rested Soria in wait. Right now why did the Tigers even trade for Soria? Is Ausmus going to stick with the Joba/Nathan combo for the 8th and 9th?

That makeup game that KC has with the Tribe looms big. If they go 2 down a 5-5 finish by the Tigers should be enough to clinch.

 
Da Guru said:
The way the 8th and 9th innings have been going no lead is safe. Joba looked really good at times this year but seems to have run out of gas the last month or so and Nathans tank has been on empty all year. Nathan just can`t throw enough strikes or get his fastball by anyone on a regular basis. How many times has he has 20-25 pitch innings this year? Nathan jut puts way too many runners on base.

I was surprised Ausmus went with Nathan on Saturday with a well rested Soria in wait. Right now why did the Tigers even trade for Soria? Is Ausmus going to stick with the Joba/Nathan combo for the 8th and 9th?

That makeup game that KC has with the Tribe looms big. If they go 2 down a 5-5 finish by the Tigers should be enough to clinch.
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Ranks with what exactly are the Pistons trying to do and why does Martin Mayhew still have a job as the unanswerable questions about Detroit sports.

 
We know what the Red Wings are trying to do; win with young forwards, old defenseman and the best coach in hockey (who is in his last year as of this moment).

 
Da Guru said:
The way the 8th and 9th innings have been going no lead is safe. Joba looked really good at times this year but seems to have run out of gas the last month or so and Nathans tank has been on empty all year. Nathan just can`t throw enough strikes or get his fastball by anyone on a regular basis. How many times has he has 20-25 pitch innings this year? Nathan jut puts way too many runners on base.

I was surprised Ausmus went with Nathan on Saturday with a well rested Soria in wait. Right now why did the Tigers even trade for Soria? Is Ausmus going to stick with the Joba/Nathan combo for the 8th and 9th?

That makeup game that KC has with the Tribe looms big. If they go 2 down a 5-5 finish by the Tigers should be enough to clinch.
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I would rather see Al-Al as the setup man for Soria, but that seems to be the furthest thing from Ausmus's thinking.

 
jon_mx said:
KC's Remaining Schedule. (1.5 Games Back in Division)

Sep 20 Det
Sep 21 Det
Sep 22 vs Cle (Suspended game, KC trailing 4-2, middle 10th)
Sep 22 @Cle
Sep 23 @Cle
Sep 24 @Cle
Sep 25 @CHW
Sep 26 @CHW
Sep 27 @CHW
Sep 28 @CHW


Detroit's remaining schedule.

Sep 20 @ KC
Sep 21 @ KC
Sep 22 CHW
Sep 23 CHW
Sep 24 CHW
Sep 25 Min
Sep 26 Min
Sep 27 Min
Sep 28 Min

Here is where the rubber meets the road. Would be nice if Cleveland won this weekend and stayed in the wild card hunt. Minn and Sux are going to be up for being the spoiler for the Tigers. I would think Detroit should have some big crowds on hand for those last games.
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Magic Number is SEVEN..............

 
jon_mx said:
Leroy Hoard said:
http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/las-vegas/

Tigers opened @ -200 with LOBSTEIN on the mound. :shrug:
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Kyle Lobstein and Kyle Ryan have been our two best starters down the stretch with the possible except of Max. :oldunsure:
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And we're going against young Bassitt, who has not pitched well. Assuming a 2 game lead, if we win 4, KC needs 6 of 7. Let's take two of three against the Sox (Tribune today talked about the Sox' fatigue as a bad year winds down ...not to mention they traded away players) and see if KC drops at least one.

 
It is a pretty big deal that Cleveland is in the race. They can pick up two games on the Royals in the wild card hunt tonight and potentially be only a game and a half out.

 
jon_mx said:
It is a pretty big deal that Cleveland is in the race. They can pick up two games on the Royals in the wild card hunt tonight and potentially be only a game and a half out.
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Wouldn't that be ridiculous though, if two teams tie for the final spot and have to have a one-game playoff to make it into the one game playoff.

 
From the Kansas City perspective:

Royals Today: 9/22/14.

Playoff Odds (ESPN/Fangraphs): 89.0% (34.6% Division, 54.4% Wild Card)
Playoff Odds (Baseball Prospectus): 69.2% (6.6% Division, 62.5% Wild Card)

One day after the Royals’ most painful loss in memory, the ESPN/Fangraphs playoff odds are the highest they’ve been all season, so pretty much the highest they’ve been (if they had been invented) since 1985. Such is the roller coaster ride of September baseball.

Those odds are inflated by a couple of factors. The first is that the computers don’t know that the Royals are about 90% likely to lose their first game today, the completion of their August 31st game. The other is that the computers don’t know that while the Mariners – who Fangraphs give just a 13% chance of making the playoffs – finish their season with three games against the team with the best record in baseball, the Angels will be prioritizing keeping their players healthy and fresh for October over actual wins and losses at that point. The Angels with one hand tied behind their back are still a formidable opponent, but not as formidable as the computers might assume.

(Of course, the numbers also don't know that the Indians chose to use Corey Kluber yesterday, keeping him out of the Royals series, and the White Sox are unlikely to start Chris Sale against the Royals in the season-ending series either. That's pretty big. Given that the Royals are the team standing between Cleveland and the playoffs, and given that starting him yesterday won't give Kluber another start this season, I'm really surprised - and, of course, relieved - that they didn't hold him back a day.)

What’s really interesting about these numbers is just how much BP’s playoff odds have diverged from Fangraphs’. BP has always had lower playoff odds for the Royals, because they take a much more dim view of the Royals’ “true” talent level, pegging the team with an expected winning percentage of just .489. It may sound crazy to peg the Royals as a sub-.500 team, and I wonder if their model properly accounts for the Royals’ defense. But it’s not as crazy as it sounds; the Royals have been lucky both on offense and defense this year, in that they’ve played much better with runners in scoring position than otherwise.

But what’s strange is that as the season gets closer to the end, the quality of the teams should start to matter less and their exact position in the standings should matter more. The Royals lead Seattle by 1.5 games in the standings; one game if you account for tonight’s loss. But with seven games left, one game is pretty huge.

And in fact BP doesn’t give the Mariners the bulk of those odds that have been stripped from the Royals. Those odds go to the Indians instead. Fangraphs gives Cleveland just a 3.3% chance of the playoffs; BP gives them a 15.5% chance, an enormous difference. I really don’t know why the two systems would diverge this much this late in the year. The take home point here is that if the Indians sweep this four-game series – which is really a three-game series plus a gimme – they would move a half-game ahead of the Royals. That’s the danger here.

On the other hand, if the Royals take three of four, they are guaranteed to finish ahead of the Indians. (I would say they eliminate the Indians entirely, but it’s possible Oakland and Seattle both collapse.) Splitting the four would require the Indians to sweep their last three and the Royals to lose their last four just to force a tie. Losing three of four would still give the Royals a 1.5 game edge, but would also open the Mariners up to passing them and setting up a wild weekend.

So basically, this series means everything. Duh.

- A quick note on yesterday’s game, and the value of having five starting pitchers that don’t suck. Jeremy Guthrie is not, with all due respect, a great starting pitcher. But he does not suck, and man is that a nice thing to say right now.

A lot of people complained when the Royals re-signed him to a three-year deal that it was too many years and too much money for a pitcher who, at his best, is league average. But – this was shortly before the Shields trade caused me to lose my mind – I endorsed the signing, because I felt like now that he was freed from the AL East and Coors Field, Guthrie would settle in as a league-average starter who provides lots of innings, and that has value.

And that’s basically what he’s been, with the caveat that – according to his peripherals – he’s been quite lucky to even be league average. Last year he had a 4.04 ERA, good for a 102 ERA+, which is better than league average when you consider starting pitchers have higher ERAs – but remember, he had the benefit of the game’s best defense. This year, he has a 4.28 ERA, below the 3.94 league average for starting pitchers, but at least within range. He was worth 1.1 bWAR last year, and 0.7 bWAR this year. Based on those numbers, he’s been – slightly – overpaid the last two years.

But you can make a strong case that for the Royals, “replacement level” is lower than it is for the industry as a whole, because we’ve seen what happens when someone other than the Big Five starts a game, and it isn’t pretty. This is why Liam Hendricks had value in a trade; he’s not great, and he may not even be mediocre, but he’s better than anyone else the Royals had.

Guthrie wasn’t great on Sunday, but he was good enough, in a game the Royals absolutely had to win. Rick Porcello is a better pitcher in the long run, but in the short run he’s, what, half a run better per start? That’s close enough for variance and the Royals’ bullpen to overcome, and that’s what happened yesterday, in a game the Royals desperately needed.

And oh yeah, when Guthrie hit some trouble in the sixth inning, putting two on with one out, Ned Yost went to Kelvin Herrera. (Although Yost let Guthrie face Nick Castellanos with two on and none out first.) When Herrera got out of the inning, he went back to Herrera for a second inning, then to Wade Davis, then to Greg Holland. The world did not spin off its axis. Herrera was not overwhelmed by being asked to pitch one inning earlier, or two outs more, than normal. Yost managed his bullpen exactly the way he should have, everyone did their jobs, and the Royals got the win.

If the Royals are going to escape into the playoffs this week, if they’re going to make an extended run in the playoffs next month, they need Yost to show he’s capable of learning from his mistakes. The way he used his bullpen yesterday is proof that he is, in fact, capable. Now, about those bunts…

Tonight marks the return of Danny Duffy, who the Royals delayed until today because they wanted two left-handers (Duffy and Jason Vargas) to take the mound against Cleveland. This makes all kinds of sense; for the season, the Indians have hit .256/.322/.405 vs. RHP, but just .251/.311/.359 vs. LHP – the drop in power is particularly striking. They have five left-handed hitters who play almost every day in Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn, David Murphy, and Lonnie Chisenhall. I’m not sure Vargas is ideally suited to face them – he doesn’t have much of a platoon split – but Duffy has been as tough on LHB this season as any starter in the game. If he’s healthy, he gives the Royals a very good chance to at least split tonight’s quasi-doubleheader.

But first up, the Royals get a crack at turning an assumed loss into an unexpected win, as they finally complete the Sunday Night Baseball game from August 31st which was interrupted by torrential downpours right after Greg Holland had coughed up two runs in the top of the tenth inning.

While coming back from two runs down with three outs to go is a long shot, the Royals are aided by a couple of things:

1) Just before the game was postponed, the Indians had pulled Cody Allen – who had surrendered the game-tying homer to Alex Gordon in the ninth – for left-hander Kyle Crockett, who is the pitcher of record. So even though Allen might be rested to pitch tonight, he’s out of the game.

2) While the game started in August with strict 25-man rosters, when the game picks up today, Andy McCullough confirmed for me that the Royals can use everyone – all 37 players – on their current roster, at least those who did not come out of the game originally. While the Royals used Herrera, Davis, and Holland, Holland is still technically the pitcher of record for the Royals; if they were to tie up the game in the tenth, Yost would have the option of going to Holland for one more inning if he so chose.

More importantly, though, the Royals have a raft of bench players available to them that weren’t available the night of the 31st. Josh Willingham was active that day but unavailable with a nagging injury; he’s available. Eric Hosmer was on the DL; he’s available. So is Terrance Gore along with Jarrod Dyson if the Royals need a pinch-runner; so is Jayson Nix and Johnny Giavotella as replacements for whoever Gore or Dyson pinch-ran for. So is Francisco Pena as a third catcher, which is relevant because Erik Kratz started for the Royals behind the plate, and Salvador Perez is in the game as the DH.

3) The Royals have had literally three weeks to plan out their line of attack in the bottom of the tenth inning, so Yost can’t claim to have not had the time to prepare.

Here is the lineup due up to start the tenth inning:

L Mike Moustakas
R Erik Kratz
R Alcides Escobar
L Nori Aoki

I assume Crockett will have to face one batter, as the rules state that a pitcher brought into the game must face one batter. I will admit that I don’t know if that rule is abrogated in this unusual circumstance. But assuming he has to face one batter, Yost’s first decision is clear:

- Pinch-hit for Moustakas with Josh Willingham.

Crockett is a left-handed specialist at this point; he’s a rookie who zoomed to the majors less than a year after he was drafted in the fourth round last year, and has pitched in 40 games for the Indians this year, but has thrown just 28 innings. The Indians have found a way for him to face more LHB (68) than RHB (48) this year, and while LHB have hit just .217/.288/.283 against him, RHB have hit .302/.375/.488. His K/BB ratio against LHB is 18 to 2, and he has not allowed a home run to them; his K/BB ratio against RHB is 7 to 4, and he has allowed two homers.

Moustakas, obviously, bats left-handed. He also has a .271 OBP this year, the lowest of any batter on the team with 100 PA, and the Royals need a baserunner before they can start thinking about tying the game with one swing. If the Indians led by a run you could at least try to make an argument that Moustakas’ power gave him a shot – a dumb argument, but it’s an argument. But in this case, Moustakas might well be the last hitter on the team you’d want batting in this situation. (Well, aside from Raul Ibanez. Let’s not go there.)

Willingham bats right-handed, and will take a walk, and despite his recent horrible game on Saturday his .349 OBP on the season is just one point behind Aoki’s as the highest on the team. (His .361 OBP since joining the Royals would rank first.) The only reason not to pinch-hit with him is if you want to hold him back to go for the fences if and when a batter reaches base. But I’m not sure who you would go with instead; the only other RHB on the bench are Pena, Giavotella, Nix, Lane Adams, and Terrance Gore. So to me, this seems like an absolute no-brainer.

If Yost lets Moustakas bat against Crockett to start the ninth, with three weeks to prepare, and with a bench full of guys to play third base if the Royals extended the game, it would be as inexcusable as anything he’s done all year. Which is saying something.

Kratz bats second, which is another reason to really hope that the leadoff hitter reaches base. If he does, then Kratz’s power makes him a reasonable choice against Crockett. If Kratz bats with one out and no one on, his lifetime .274 OBP makes it tough to stick with him – except, again, the Royals’ best right-handed alternative off the bench is probably Giavotella. I might actually make that switch, but it’s not an appealing decision either way. This would be the rare time where giving up the platoon advantage while pinch-hitting makes sense, as I suppose you could go to Dyson and hope he can beat out a ground ball to the left side, or go to Eric Hosmer and hope that Hosmer’s innate hitting ability comes through. And having Francisco Pena on the roster means that the Royals can replace Kratz behind the plate after the inning without giving up the DH. (If Pena were to bat later, you'd probably want to pinch-hit for him then, move Perez to DH, and then have your pitcher bat in Pena's spot, but by the time the pitcher's spot would come up you'd be in at least the 15th inning.)

If Crockett is pulled after one batter for a right-handed pitcher, then the Royals’ options become much more palatable. Hosmer or Dyson for hits; Ibanez or Carlos Peguero if the leadoff batter reaches and you want to swing for the fences…but in that case you would just go to Hosmer anyway. It’s hard to imagine that Terry Francona would pull Crockett and open up the Royals’ left-handed hitters off the bench unless the leadoff hitter reaches and Kratz’s power worries him. Which, again, gets back to this fundamental point: the Royals must do everything in their power to maximize the odds their leadoff man reaches. Which means that Mike Moustakas must not be allowed to bat.


(Late edit: it has been pointed out to me that, per rule 4.12© of the official MLB Rulebook, Crockett does NOT have to pitch to a batter when the game resumes, although if he doesn’t, he is considered to have pitched in the game and can not come back in. This changes things a little, but only a little. There are two possibilities here:

1) Crockett starts the tenth, but after a pinch-hitter is called for, he is pulled for a right-handed pitcher. This would not surprise me at all.

If that’s the case, you STILL have to go to Willingham, because Willingham vs. a right-handed pitcher would still give you a better chance of getting on base than Moustakas vs. a left-handed pitcher. Basically, if Crockett takes the mound, Moustakas has to come out, and whatever Francona does is up to him.

2) A right-hander starts the tenth instead. In that case the answer isn’t quite as obvious, but I would still pull Moustakas. Again – YOU NEED A BASERUNNER. Moustakas has his skills, but getting on base ranks near the bottom of them. Dyson would give you a much better on-base chance as well as speed on the bases, which Yost loves even if it’s not the tying run, and he still has Gore for that eventuality. Sticking with Moustakas wouldn’t be an error on the same level as if he faces Crockett, but it would still be the wrong move.)

SECOND LATE EDIT: Joel Goldberg informs me that IF Crockett takes the mound to start the inning, THEN he must face one batter, so the Royals would get a free shot with Willingham without having to worry that Francona would pull the ol' rope-a-dope. So again: if Crockett takes the mound, Willingham must bat. If someone else takes the mound, someone other than Moustakas should still probably bat.

THIRD LATE EDIT, BECAUSE THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ENOUGH OF THOSE: Now I'm hearing again that Crockett does NOT have to stay in. Either way, Willingham against any pitcher is better than Moustakas vs. Crockett. So pinch-hit Willingham and work out the details later.

After that comes Escobar and Aoki, a one-two pairing which sounds about 100 times more interesting than it did back when this game started. Infante would bat fifth, and if he bats then the tying runs are at least on base, which means That’s What Speed One or That’s What Speed Deux are on the basepaths. If Crockett is still on the mound, I’d let Infante bat; if a right-hander is in the game at that point, then this would be the perfect place to use Hosmer if you haven’t already.
The point is, the Royals have had three weeks to think about these scenarios, and it’s not like this is rocket science. There’s no excuse for screwing this up. The odds are slim either way, but stealing one victory from the jaws of defeat this week might be the same as stealing one playoff appearance from the jaws of another disappointing season.
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jon_mx said:
jon_mx said:
It is a pretty big deal that Cleveland is in the race. They can pick up two games on the Royals in the wild card hunt tonight and potentially be only a game and a half out.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't that be ridiculous though, if two teams tie for the final spot and have to have a one-game playoff to make it into the one game playoff.
Click to expand...
It would go on the "select list", the list that includes the walk off walk.

 
GAME INFORMATION

Who: Detroit Tigers (86-69, 1st in AL Central) vs. Chicago White Sox (71-84, 4th in AL Central, 15 games behind Detroit)

When: 7:08 p.m.

Where: Comerica Park in Detroit

TV: Fox Sports Detroit

Radio: 97.1 The Ticket and the Detroit Tigers radio network

STARTING PITCHERS

Detroit Tigers

LHP Kyle Lobstein (1-0, 3.58 ERA)

Lifetime vs. White Sox: No appearances

Chicago White Sox

RHP Chris Bassitt (0-1, 5.29 ERA)

Lifetime vs. Tigers: 0-1, 7.11 ERA

STARTING LINEUPS

(Statistics vs. opposing starter in parentheses)

Detroit Tigers

Not available yet.

Chicago White Sox

1. Alexei Ramirez, SS

2. Marcus Semien, 3B

3. Jose Abreu, 1B

4. Avisail Garcia, RF

5. Dayan Viciedo, LF

6. Paul Konerko, DH

7. Carlos Sanchez, 2B

8. Tyler Flowers, C

9. Moises Sierra, CF

GAME NOTES

-- Alex Avila is expected to be out of the starting lineup for a seventh straight day. He's awaiting clearance from Major League Baseball. There's a chance he could return Tuesday.

-- The Tigers will honor White Sox designated hitter Paul Konerko before today's game. The pregame ceremony will be themed to honor his accomplishments at Comerica Park and is expected to include Tigers starter Justin Verlander.

-- Chicago rookie first baseman Jose Abreu has hit .433 with five home runs and 13 RBIs in 16 games against the Tigers this season.

-- Tigers rookie left-hander Kyle Lobstein will make his first start since Sept. 13 when he allowed four runs in five innings en route to a no decision. His last start, which was tentatively scheduled for last Friday was skipped.

-- The Tigers own a 1 1/2-game lead over the second-place Royals in the AL Central Division with seven games remaining in the regular season. They've won nine of 13, but are 8-8 against the White Sox this season, including 3-4 at home.

-- Detroit's magic number is down to seven. The magic number represents the combination of wins by the leading team and losses by the second-place (or tied) team that would clinch the division title.

-- The forecast in Detroit tonight calls for sunny and clear skies with temperatures steady or falling to near 54 degrees. No rain is expected tonight.

 
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