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***Detroit Tigers thread: 1st pick yet again, this is not fun*** (1 Viewer)

24 complete games... Lol, not in today's world. I watched the documentary "Fastball" and remember Nolan Ryan say it was commonplace for him to go throw 150-170 pitches. I still wonder if there is too much concern over TJ. It's clear some guys just have more miles then others and the elbow injury has always been apart of the game. They just realized they can fix it, where it used to be a death sentence.

 
A month ago Sale was well on his way to the Cy Young but now I think Sanchez, Kluber, Fulmer, Duffy, Porcello, and JV are in the conversation.  I think Sale is still ahead, but Porcello and JV in particular have pulled closer.  Fulmer would have to be pretty flawless down the stretch to have a shot, but I think he's definitely top ten and probably close to top five right now.  Pretty neat. 

 
Looking back at the Dombrowski reign there was a whole lot to like in the trades he made. Getting Bondo and Carlos Pena for Jeff Weaver, getting both Dmitri and Delmon Young in trades, and Cespedes and Alex Wilson for Porcello which he turned into Fulmer.  Looking back the one that looks the worst was the Eugenio Suarez for Alfredo Simon trade, and also the Devon Travis for Anthony Goss trade.  The  Doug Fister, for Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol and Robbie Ray which was largely cited as a loss, was not.  2.5 years later there isn't one GM in baseball who wouldn't trade Fister for Robbie Ray.  Fister has produced a 3 WAR the past three years combined, Robbie Ray looks like a legit middle of the rotation arm who is rising.  Tigers ended up flipping Ray for Shane Greene and Krol for Cameron Maybin, so big picture this was a good trade.  

Here are my top 5 trades for DD:

5.  Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells and Chance Ruffin plus two minor leaguer who never worked out for David Pauley and Doug Fister:  Fister ended up being a terrific #4 starter and a fan favorite, Charlie Furbush is a solid reliever but nothing special and Casper Well's biggest accomplishment was having his dad come onto a Detroit Tigers board and completely meltdown for three straight days. 

4. Curtis Granderson and EJax for Ajax, Scherzer, Phil Coke, and Daniel Schlereth.  Grandy has had a really good career beyond Detroit but AJax ended up being a capable replacement, Phil Coke pitched five years in Detroit in some big games, and Max Scherzer ended up being pure genius. 

3. SS Ramon Santiago and P Juan Gonzalez for SS Carlos Guillen:  Guillen was a fixture on the 2006 team and beyond as a 3-time all star and a .842 OPS as a Tiger, Ramon ended up coming back as a FA, and JG never worked out.

2.  Prince Fielder and $30 million for Ian Kinsler:  Prince compiled a .4 WAR in three years with Texas, Kinsler meanwhile has the highest WAR of any Tiger over the past three years (13.7) and the 7th highest mark in all of baseball among position players.  The $30 million sent to Texas is offset by Kinsler being worth quite a bit more than the $16 million the Tigers are paying him.  

1.  Getting Miguel Cabrera for the entire farm and also taking on Dontrelle Willis.  There could have been three Dontrelle Willis in this deal and it still would have been a smashing success. 

There are more deals and I think Dombrowski only lost three maybe four, and none ended up being a big deal.  The Price in Price out trade is TBA because Willy Adames looks like a pretty legit prospect and Drew Smyly still has a chance to be a good starter.  So you got 1 year of Price plus Norris and Boyd but they didn't exactly give up nothing there.  That might end up being a push unless Norris reaches his potential. 

Al Avila is said to have been involved in a lot of these deals as the main evaluator of talent/personnel, we can only hope he learned a lot from the master because really good trades have kept this team competitive for a decade now. 

 
Fulmer should be in people's top 5, perhaps just ahead of JV.  He potentially has 9 starts left, but 2-3 will be skipped.  Things he needs to do to win:. 

Get 163 innings in to qualify for and win the ERA title.  

Win at least 4 more games.  

It depends on what others do, but if Fulmer does that, he has a real shot at getting the Cy Young. 

 
Megaton said:
No pitcher will be allowed to exceed what Mark Fidrych did.  24 complete games, 250 innings.  WAR of 9.6.  2nd in Cy Young. 
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Not a rookie season but this stat line from Mickey Lolich in 1971 still blows me away.

GS-45,  W-L 25-14 ,  29 Complete games,  376 IP,  308 Ks,  1.13 WHIP  

45 starts!!  Think about that now as that is almost one in every three games.  Tigers had 53 Complete games as a staff that season.

 
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Doctor Detroit said:
Looking back at the Dombrowski reign there was a whole lot to like in the trades he made. Getting Bondo and Carlos Pena for Jeff Weaver, getting both Dmitri and Delmon Young in trades, and Cespedes and Alex Wilson for Porcello which he turned into Fulmer.  Looking back the one that looks the worst was the Eugenio Suarez for Alfredo Simon trade, and also the Devon Travis for Anthony Goss trade.  The  Doug Fister, for Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol and Robbie Ray which was largely cited as a loss, was not.  2.5 years later there isn't one GM in baseball who wouldn't trade Fister for Robbie Ray.  Fister has produced a 3 WAR the past three years combined, Robbie Ray looks like a legit middle of the rotation arm who is rising.  Tigers ended up flipping Ray for Shane Greene and Krol for Cameron Maybin, so big picture this was a good trade.  

Here are my top 5 trades for DD:

5.  Charlie Furbush, Casper Wells and Chance Ruffin plus two minor leaguer who never worked out for David Pauley and Doug Fister:  Fister ended up being a terrific #4 starter and a fan favorite, Charlie Furbush is a solid reliever but nothing special and Casper Well's biggest accomplishment was having his dad come onto a Detroit Tigers board and completely meltdown for three straight days. 

4. Curtis Granderson and EJax for Ajax, Scherzer, Phil Coke, and Daniel Schlereth.  Grandy has had a really good career beyond Detroit but AJax ended up being a capable replacement, Phil Coke pitched five years in Detroit in some big games, and Max Scherzer ended up being pure genius. 

3. SS Ramon Santiago and P Juan Gonzalez for SS Carlos Guillen:  Guillen was a fixture on the 2006 team and beyond as a 3-time all star and a .842 OPS as a Tiger, Ramon ended up coming back as a FA, and JG never worked out.

2.  Prince Fielder and $30 million for Ian Kinsler:  Prince compiled a .4 WAR in three years with Texas, Kinsler meanwhile has the highest WAR of any Tiger over the past three years (13.7) and the 7th highest mark in all of baseball among position players.  The $30 million sent to Texas is offset by Kinsler being worth quite a bit more than the $16 million the Tigers are paying him.  

1.  Getting Miguel Cabrera for the entire farm and also taking on Dontrelle Willis.  There could have been three Dontrelle Willis in this deal and it still would have been a smashing success. 

There are more deals and I think Dombrowski only lost three maybe four, and none ended up being a big deal.  The Price in Price out trade is TBA because Willy Adames looks like a pretty legit prospect and Drew Smyly still has a chance to be a good starter.  So you got 1 year of Price plus Norris and Boyd but they didn't exactly give up nothing there.  That might end up being a push unless Norris reaches his potential. 

Al Avila is said to have been involved in a lot of these deals as the main evaluator of talent/personnel, we can only hope he learned a lot from the master because really good trades have kept this team competitive for a decade now. 
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You are missing a really bad one but I can't remember who was involved. We traded for some terrible SS - Neifi Perez? Alex Sanchez? And gave up someone decent. 

Also, he made some bad FA signings - extending Dontrelle. That was dumb. And choosing not to sign Polanco. That was a mistake.

But overall, definitely a good GM. 

He also got Cessa in the Cespedes trade - which turned into Justin Wilson.

 
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I was just talking trades, some bad FA acquisitions for sure. Sheffield, Prince, not locking Scherzer in, Nate Robertson, etc. 

 
So Sanchez is starting Wednesday.  Lovely.  Really makes it imperative they win tonight with Duffy pitching against JV tomorrow in a tight matchup.  

I see Derek Hill is injured (again).  I was really hoping they could have sold high on him at the trade deadline.  He gets injured every time he sneezes.  

 
Any guesses on who may start on Thursday against Boston?  We are likely heading down for the day game and MLB.com still has the starter as TBD.  Is it looking like Buck Farmer?  :X

 
It does not sound like Miggy's injury is serious, but right now they are down a 1B, SS, 3B, CF, and two starting pitchers.  Not the best time to be going against a pitcher who is having one of the best years in the majors.

 
Not thrilled about the Sanchez start, but it will be fun to watch the three rookies go back to back to back against Boston.

 
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No one mentioned the blockbuster Aviles and ####ty catcher for Aybar trade?  This is why you can't be trusted, guys. :mellow:

I would have DFA'd Aviles so we get Aybar for a A ball catcher, seems ok to me.  Not much money involved either, so only concern is if they did this because the Iglesias injury is that serious.  Iglesias is underrated IMO, he's a plus glove with a chance to be a gold glover and he's streaky enough to be a solid hitting contributor. 

 
Aviles out, Aybar in.  An upgrade for sure.  Buy just releasing Aviles would have been an upgrade.  

 
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The thing about the Aviles deal is, why is Avila sitting on his hands so long? Why is Anibal and Mark Lowe still viewed as reasonable pieces to have on this team and what happens next year if we're making a run again and there is money open? Is he going to sit on his hands riding DD's coat tails his whole term?

Edit to add: Lowe and Aviles should have been gone back in Late May/Early June.

 
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Bojang0301 said:
The thing about the Aviles deal is, why is Avila sitting on his hands so long? Why is Anibal and Mark Lowe still viewed as reasonable pieces to have on this team and what happens next year if we're making a run again and there is money open? Is he going to sit on his hands riding DD's coat tails his whole term?

Edit to add: Lowe and Aviles should have been gone back in Late May/Early June.
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Ideally, the prospects he is not dealing are ready to contribute at the major league level and can replace the dead weight on the roster.  Dom did some great things for this franchise, but the cupboard was bone dry up until last year's trade deadline.  Thankfully his last hurrah was to get some bodies back into the system or else this year probably would have been a total disaster.  It's going to take some time before enough reinforcements are ready though.

 
MAC_32 said:
Ideally, the prospects he is not dealing are ready to contribute at the major league level and can replace the dead weight on the roster.  Dom did some great things for this franchise, but the cupboard was bone dry up until last year's trade deadline.  Thankfully his last hurrah was to get some bodies back into the system or else this year probably would have been a total disaster.  It's going to take some time before enough reinforcements are ready though.
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I just hope that Avila has learned that guys like Pelfrey, Aviles and Lowe he doesn't have to go grab bag bonkers at the beginning of FA for. Slow roll and invite guys like this to camp or give them 1 year deals (in the case of Pelfrey).

 
Bojang0301 said:
I just hope that Avila has learned that guys like Pelfrey, Aviles and Lowe he doesn't have to go grab bag bonkers at the beginning of FA for. Slow roll and invite guys like this to camp or give them 1 year deals (in the case of Pelfrey).
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And Upton...

What is painful to think is that the Tigers will probably lose JD but  have Upton for 5 more seasons.

 
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Da Guru said:
And Upton...

What is painful to think is that the Tigers will probably lose JD but  have Upton for 5 more seasons.
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Why will we lose JD?  Buying out Anibal and letting Lowe + Pelfrey walk opens up more than $20 mil by themselves.  Need to develop cheap, in-house alternatives though.

 
The only question tonight is how many runs the Tigers will lose by.  I am thinking 5.  I need to take out a mortgage so I can bet the farm. 

 
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Bojang0301 said:
I just hope that Avila has learned that guys like Pelfrey, Aviles and Lowe he doesn't have to go grab bag bonkers at the beginning of FA for. Slow roll and invite guys like this to camp or give them 1 year deals (in the case of Pelfrey).
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Aren't you the same guy that was on the ledge about the bullpen last year and how they weren't doing enough to address it? So you don't mention how Avila traded for  KRod and Justin Wilson but rail on   Him for signing Lowe to a reasonable deal after a terrific year last year. Damned if you do, damned if you don't especially with hindsight. 

aviles signing was fine, utility guy with good plug and play history on a one year deal.  

Both those signings along with Maybin and McGahee were all short-term commitments that filled  a particular need. I want him to do that every single year. Some guys work out, some don't. Every other team has the same issue.

 
Da Guru said:
And Upton...

What is painful to think is that the Tigers will probably lose JD but  have Upton for 5 more seasons.
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I'd put good money on Upton being top 3 on the team in OPS next year. Andrew McCutchen will be good again too. Both those guys are having the season Cano had last year, Cano bounced back because he's really good at baseball. So is Upton and Cutch. 

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Aren't you the same guy that was on the ledge about the bullpen last year and how they weren't doing enough to address it? So you don't mention how Avila traded for  KRod and Justin Wilson but rail on   Him for signing Lowe to a reasonable deal after a terrific year last year. Damned if you do, damned if you don't especially with hindsight. 

aviles signing was fine, utility guy with good plug and play history on a one year deal.  

Both those signings along with Maybin and McGahee were all short-term commitments that filled  a particular need. I want him to do that every single year. Some guys work out, some don't. Every other team has the same issue.
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I am not being overly critical of Avila, I am saying I hope he learns. Lowe was a one year wonder and had plenty of skepticism around him. Aviles, Lowe and (I can sympathize with keeping Anibal) Anibal probably should have been off the team awhile ago but they continue to trot them out there in some sort of hope that they are what they could be at their peaks instead of the below average to just plain bad players they are.

 
Also, Avila was hell bent on getting the offseason done early and I believe that it may have hamstring him come trade deadline this year. That sucks to know money was an issue when Mike Pelfrey is making 9/per. I think I'm allowed to be critical of that. I am happier to have the young players then some rental though, so it may be a good thing long term.

 
Bojang0301 said:
I am not being overly critical of Avila, I am saying I hope he learns. Lowe was a one year wonder and had plenty of skepticism around him. Aviles, Lowe and (I can sympathize with keeping Anibal) Anibal probably should have been off the team awhile ago but they continue to trot them out there in some sort of hope that they are what they could be at their peaks instead of the below average to just plain bad players they are.
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We've discussed why Anibal isn't going anywhere, there is no reason to eat that contract because he's having a bad year.  This is not the NFL, you can't just jettison bad contracts and every team in baseball has them.  Aviles was the 25th guy on the roster signed for $2 million, a guy that could play four positions with a career .700 OPS.  He wasn't going to be anything but an injury fill and a guy that gives the starters a rest.  Short relievers are good one year, not good the next.  I can give you a laundry list of guys that fit the Lowe profile.  At this point no reason not to hold him until September 1st, he might be good next year.  Tigers bullpen sucks because they've traded a lot of good arms through the years, guys who could have been good relievers.  They need to stop doing that and bring up arms to contribute as relievers

Brian Sabean has three world series titles and he signed Jeff Samardzija to a 6/$90 deal this past off-season.  Starting pitching is extremely expensive and no one liked the Pelfrey deal from the start, but it was not out of line with the market. 

I don't understand what Avila has to learn.  The only thing he's done so far that he has to answer for is the Upton signing, everything else is short-term commitments to veterans to fill immediate needs.  He also should be given a lot of credit for going to Fulmer, they could have waited a lot longer to call him up. 

I understand the frustration but Aviles or Lowe aren't the reason this team isn't that good.  JZimm has been hurt or ineffective, Upton stinks, Maybin hurt, JD hurt, Castellanos hurt, Miggy slumping for part of the year, VMart old, three rookie starters having to take a lot of the burden, and the bullpen failing at the worst possible times.  Even with all that they are still in the thick of the playoff race, not sure this season has been that bad actually. 

 
Yeah that's just all around pathetic.  Hitting, bullpen, letting Anibal down after that effort. 

If you get seven shutout innings from your #8 starter, you have to win. 

ETA:  9 for 60 in their last nine games w/RISP :X

 
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