Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Devin Duvernay WR BAL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter grateful zed
- Start date
Faust
MVP
Last edited by a moderator:
grateful zed
Footballguy
looks like he going in the 25-35 range, could be a steal in the third.
grateful zed
Footballguy
EBF, your write up put him on my radar.
Faust, good work as always.
Faust, good work as always.
Mark Football
Footballguy
Mark Football
Footballguy
There were a couple rotoworld blurbs lately where Jackson was working on getting the ball out faster and he was not wanting to run as much. Maybe they employ him more like K. Murray going forward. A lot of quick passes and the occasional deep shot, instead of called runs. That would definitely keep him healthier.
EBF
Footballguy
Their best WR was a 170 pound rookie who dealt with a nagging injury for much of the year. You raise a valid concern about their passing attack, but it's not as though they were trotting out Julio and Moss. They had innate limitations based on the limited quality of their WR room. You generally aren't going to have prolific WR production when the WRs on your roster are not very good.
440 pass attempts last season was dead last in the league. Nowhere to go but up.
Downside for Duvernay is that this isn't a pass-happy team. Upside is that there's very little established competition for targets. Andrews is a high-end receiving TE and Brown showed that he's at least going to be a dangerous deep threat, but that's really where it begins and ends. Boykin is an X-factor and you have to think Dobbins will be involved as pass-catching weapon out of the backfield, but generally speaking their WR1 role is still in play and the WR2 role is wide open.
We also have to talk about cost. This site has Duvernay as the dynasty WR82. Their rookie rankings have him at 29th, which equates to a mid 3rd in a 12 team draft. A lot of the concerns you raised are baked into his low acquisition price. This is a cheap player to acquire. If he tops out as a 900-and-6 guy, you are still winning.
Last edited by a moderator:
EBF
Footballguy
miqws
Footballguy
Duvernay is a great dart throw, rookie pick 35 for me. I will make this kind of bet all day. Athlete (10.27 100 meters in high school), showed college production, graduated in December. Here is a background article.
https://www.pennlive.com/baltimore-ravens/2020/05/how-baltimore-ravens-rookie-devin-duvernays-family-of-athletes-paved-a-road-to-the-nfl.html
https://www.pennlive.com/baltimore-ravens/2020/05/how-baltimore-ravens-rookie-devin-duvernays-family-of-athletes-paved-a-road-to-the-nfl.html
massraider
Footballguy
rockaction
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I just can't see the upside here, the offense isn't big enough. They are gonna run run run and then run some more and they have Andrews as a primary target. The only way he hits upside is if Brown is a bust. I like the talent enough but this is the kind of thing you hear every year about Antonio Callaway and Zay Jones and Carlos Henderson and next thing you know 3 years later you're like Carlos who?
Hankmoody
Footballguy
That's gotta be 10 year split, no? It's not a 3 cone time. Unless of course it's Speedy Gonzales, in which case I'm taking him with this OTC 2.10 pick I am sitting on.
Faust
MVP
I am removing him from my draft board completely. Ten years is a long time to wait to see results from investing a pick in Devin Duvernay.
Milkman
Footballguy
If Duvernay had landed better I would be more excited about his prospects. He's a good/great prospect that landed on a team that doesn't really throw the ball that much. Once Lamar stops running this offense comes crashing down. He doesn't have the arm talent of Kyler Murray.
Still he's worth a 2nd round pick just on talent.
Still he's worth a 2nd round pick just on talent.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
massraider
Footballguy
Lamar was amazingly efficient and I think it's pretty reasonable to get excited about Duvernay being capable of a lot of explosive plays. Similar to Marquise Brown.
But Baltimore threw it to their WR's 29 times less then any other team in the league last year. That should go up a little but I don't expect it to be a significant spike and mitigated by having more quality WR's to compete with.
I'm pretty down on the all Baltimore WR's, even though again I think they will make a ton of big plays. The volume is just way to low for me to pay what I need to pay for them or to be comfortable putting them in my lineup.
So for me Duvernay is someone who always goes multiple rounds before I'd consider him though in real world I like him and think he's going to be a huge help to the Ravens offense.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Apples to oranges, Cam stopped running because he got hurt. How many qbs play well when they're injured?
Milkman
Footballguy
Got hurt and lost his appetite for contact. Yes. Cam was useless after that. RG3 comes to mind too........I'd be very cognizant of that if I owned Lamar Jackson
I'd be selling right now too......
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
They threw less than everyone else because their receivers were not good last year. They drafted Duvernay and Proche because anyone is better than Snead and Boykin.
Things change fast in the NFL and the tea leaves read that this is an offense rapidly tending up as they move away from the lethargic to the electric. They ran a lot because they had to last year, I don't expect that to continue. It's also why people should not be terribly worried about Ingram over Dobbins for very long.
The argument will change from "running offense" to "too many mouths" pretty quickly.
Last edited by a moderator:
Don't agree with that and by your own usage of his 36 TD' stats you can see Lamar was highly efficient passing last year so it's not like they were failing when he went to pass.
I've heard Daniel Jeremiah discuss this a few times and he worked for Ravens for awhile and has a lot of contacts with them so taking it for what it's worth he's said numerous times the reason the Ravens have to attack the draft for WR's is they are cognizant of fact they can't attract big time FA WR's to them because of the low volume passing attack. It's a no go destination for FA WR's with a choice. That's very telling.
I don't like when people give absolutes, so I won't say it can't happen and will instead phrase it as I'd be stunned if this passing offense in games Lamar plays is not always in bottom 5 of the league in attempts to WR's and probably overall though I could see a lot of short passes to RB's in their future.
I dislike this passing game so much for volume that I'm one of the Antonio Brown holdout guys, still holding and still hoping, and I think if I woke up tomorrow and saw he'd been signed by the Ravens I'd actually be down about it. In fact I know I would be down about it. I don't own Raven WR's on teams and would like to keep it that way.
EBF
Footballguy
You could agree that BAL will be a limited passing attack and still see value at his ADP.
If his dynasty WR rank is around 75-85 and he becomes a solid top 30-40 dynasty WR then you've effectively profited.
The debate doesn't have to be "either Lamar becomes a 4,500 yard passer or Duvernay is useless".
If his dynasty WR rank is around 75-85 and he becomes a solid top 30-40 dynasty WR then you've effectively profited.
The debate doesn't have to be "either Lamar becomes a 4,500 yard passer or Duvernay is useless".
grateful zed
Footballguy
aj brown landed in a crappy spot last year. look at him now.
massraider
Footballguy
This is where the argument falls apart. Any player with a pretty clean path to slot work for one of the best teams in the NFL should have fantasy draft value. Duvernay is falling in fantasy drafts. He's not a 2nd rounder. The next WR on the ADP list went to Liberty University. You don't have to make a tough call on Duvernary. He's as bargain at his ADP, this isn't Antonio Gibson. 3rd rounder, to get Lamar's slot guy (maybe)? Too rich?
Gonna go for the big dollars with Eno Benjamin or DeeJay Dallas, huh? Get that TE from Dayton you been drooling over?
Last edited by a moderator:
Milkman
Footballguy
I was thinking more Raymond Calais or Colby Parkinson. It has more to with the current WR landscape then Duvernay's talent though. WR3-4 are a dime a dozen in FF right now with imo back to back insane draft classes at the position.This is where the argument falls apart. Any player with a pretty clean path to slot work for one of the best teams in the NFL should have fantasy draft value. Duvernay is falling in fantasy drafts. He's not a 2nd rounder. The next WR on the ADP list went to Liberty University. You don't have to make a tough call on Duvernary. He's as bargain at his ADP, this isn't Antonio Gibson. 3rd rounder, to get Lamar's slot guy (maybe)? Too rich?
Gonna go for the big dollars with Eno Benjamin or DeeJay Dallas, huh? Get that TE from Dayton you been drooling over?
***Edit***
I'd add I like (might even love) Duvernay's talent too but he's doomed where he landed and there's more reasons than just Baltimore doesn't throw much to WR or Lamar's (imo) suspect arm talent.
Last edited by a moderator:
massraider
Footballguy
Willie Mays Hayes
Footballguy
Is it me or does Duvernay and Reagor look like almost the same guy? The difference is one guy is a lot cheaper.
Milkman
Footballguy
Skill wise in a bubble maybe.......the more I think about it though if Duvernay had gone to Philly he'd be my #1 WR in this draft probably.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
That theoretical profit is *only* actualized if you flip him or get points in your lineup above replacement. At WR30-40 that is questionable at best. Many owners would agree and make it hard to find a market.EBF said:
It's more likely he becomes a roster clogger. That said, at his current price, I have zero issue with taking him.
EBF
Footballguy
Some of my leagues have added a couple flex spots over the last few years, which has really stressed the value of depth. In a shallow format, a WR3-WR4 type is not very exciting. I get that. That's not Duvernay's actual upside though. We don't really know his upside and one thing I've learned over the years is that the FF community is not always great at ascertaining a player's ceiling. For example, I don't think anyone thought Tyreek Hill's ceiling was this high. TY Hilton was pegged as a slot WR/role player coming into the league. Maurice Jones-Drew was thought to be a committee back because of his small stature. Lamar and Mahomes were not expected to be as good as they became. This sort of thing happens all the time.
I'm not saying Duvernay is a lock to reach that level of stardom, but we don't really know his actual upside. There's a universe where he's Hilton or Godwin. What's nice is that you can fall well short of that level and still win based on his price of acquisition, and that's a point that we seem to agree on. If you grab him at WR80 and he becomes WR10, you have a massive steal. If you grab him at WR80 and he only becomes WR40, you still have a decent little win. The low price of acquisition gives you a much bigger margin for error compared to Lamb, Jeudy, Jefferson, etc.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
WR30 would be pretty easy to do that - WR2.5 in a 12 man league has a whole ton of value come bye week season when nagging injuries are sapping depth. Some weeks that guy might be your (or hopefully others') lead WR. Last year after week 7 (PPR) WR31-40 were Wil Fuller, Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk, DJ Moore, OBJ, Robert Woods, Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Ridley, Curtis Samuel, and Jarvis Landry. Emmanuel Sanders, JJSS, Cooks, Parker - keep going.
Give me that kind of value/return out of a 3rd rounder and I"m all in.
Last edited by a moderator:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm splitting hairs because really I'm glad to draft him at his price, and actually just did in one league, but seriously it can only be a profit if you actually use him or flip him. Otherwise that decent little win is a mirage. The pride of owning a guy that is worth more than I paid doesn't actually get me points in my boxscore. Again, I'm being pedantic here. There is zero reason not to take him this late. I likely won't be able to roster him come week 1, but no reason not to see how the rest of the offseason plays out. And if he shows anything then maybe I am able to make that flip.
I should have an asterisk on every post that says I mainly only play FFPC dynasty leagues. Gotta cut to 20 by week 1.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah so I count 7 names I have picked up off waivers or seen on waivers. And the rest are/were much more expensive. Not saying these guys don't have value. Just not sure I am looking for that. And these seem like mostly roster clogger to me. I'd rather have a TE or RB in a flex spot in my FFPC leagues. Or a better WR.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
None of those guys have ever been on waivers in my 12 man dynasty league. Zero.
Edit: I take it back - Boyd was because I ran out of taxi eligibility for him and I wasn't using cap space on him and I'm an idiot. Fitzgerald might have been when he was at his lowest QB issues and starting to show age. Maybe.
Last edited by a moderator:
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah every league is different for sure. Also Ward, Perriman and Slayton were guys off the wire that had similar PPG production last year.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I like Duvernay quite a bit but I agree with some of what @barackdhouse is saying. I actually think he'll be quite a bit cheaper later this year or next offseason. These guys that aren't big hype names are guys that fantasy owners really get bored of quickly if they don't break out right away a la Terry McClaurin.
Granted he's not that expensive right now, but I bet he'll be available almost for free at some point. Like Barack I should probably stipulate that many of my leagues are FFPC so smaller rosters, but I would compare him a lot to Miles Boykin. He wasn't particularly expensive last year as a mid 3rd round pick, but this year he's just sitting out there as a FA and went through the entire 7th round rookie/FA draft despite everyone knowing he probably wasn't going to be a huge contributor as a rookie.
Maybe I'm getting a little off topic here but if I have space for them I really like grabbing project WRs or young TEs at a discount headed into year 2 or 3 of their career who haven't flashed yet. As much as people draft them knowing they are a project and say they are willing to wait, the reality is most fantasy owners give up pretty quickly unless they see major flashes of stardom.
You look at a guy like Mike Gesicki who was considered a project at a position that takes a while to develop anyway and who has followed basically the exact path people were hoping for when they drafted him, yet his value right now is still less than it was when he was in the rookie draft despite the fact that we are now fast forwarded to the part where we get to see if he actually is about to break out instead of having to wait 2 years like you did back then.
Granted he's not that expensive right now, but I bet he'll be available almost for free at some point. Like Barack I should probably stipulate that many of my leagues are FFPC so smaller rosters, but I would compare him a lot to Miles Boykin. He wasn't particularly expensive last year as a mid 3rd round pick, but this year he's just sitting out there as a FA and went through the entire 7th round rookie/FA draft despite everyone knowing he probably wasn't going to be a huge contributor as a rookie.
Maybe I'm getting a little off topic here but if I have space for them I really like grabbing project WRs or young TEs at a discount headed into year 2 or 3 of their career who haven't flashed yet. As much as people draft them knowing they are a project and say they are willing to wait, the reality is most fantasy owners give up pretty quickly unless they see major flashes of stardom.
You look at a guy like Mike Gesicki who was considered a project at a position that takes a while to develop anyway and who has followed basically the exact path people were hoping for when they drafted him, yet his value right now is still less than it was when he was in the rookie draft despite the fact that we are now fast forwarded to the part where we get to see if he actually is about to break out instead of having to wait 2 years like you did back then.
Milkman
Footballguy
That's how I got George Kittle and D.J. Chark a couple years ago in my dynasty league.......plucked them off the WW right before the year ended. Grabbed Blake Jarwin and Hakeem Butler last year late.
