Devin Hester and the career TD record (1 Viewer)

[Mike Herman]

I was just working on the KR/PR write-up for the Bears Team Report and got sidetracked...

In just two years, Devin Hester is already near the top of the NFL career return TDs list: Brian Mitchell 13, Eric Metcalf 12, Dante Hall 12, Devin Hester 11 (or 12 if you count the missed FG return in 2006). Imagine any NFL player breaking an NFL career record in just his third year. That’s what Hester is on the verge of doing!

While you can't really compare stats and records from one position to the next, it's still intriguing to consider...

A third year QB would need to average 148 passing TDs a year for his first three years to break Brett Favre's NFL career TD record.

A third year WR would need to average 66 receiving TDs a year for his first three years to break Jerry Rice's NFL career TD record.

A third year RB would need to average 55 rushing TDs a year for his first three years to break Emmitt Smith's NFL career TD record.

A third year PK would need to average 189 FGs a year for his first three years to break Morten Andersen's NFL career FG record.

 

[mlball77]

Pretty incredible when you look at it like that.

 

[the spanker]

Pretty incredible when you look at it like that.

Curious. What is this guy's value in a PPR redraft this year? Isn't he going to be the Bears main weapon in the passing game too this year?

 

[brednbuddah]

I was just working on the KR/PR write-up for the Bears Team Report and got sidetracked...

In just two years, Devin Hester is already near the top of the NFL career return TDs list: Brian Mitchell 13, Eric Metcalf 12, Dante Hall 12, Devin Hester 11 (or 12 if you count the missed FG return in 2006). Imagine any NFL player breaking an NFL career record in just his third year. That’s what Hester is on the verge of doing!

While you can't really compare stats and records from one position to the next, it's still intriguing to consider...

A third year QB would need to average 148 passing TDs a year for his first three years to break Brett Favre's NFL career TD record.

A third year WR would need to average 66 receiving TDs a year for his first three years to break Jerry Rice's NFL career TD record.

A third year RB would need to average 55 rushing TDs a year for his first three years to break Emmitt Smith's NFL career TD record.

A third year PK would need to average 189 FGs a year for his first three years to break Morten Andersen's NFL career FG record.

or 13 if you count the one in the super bowl.

 

[kethnaab]

someone remind me why teams still kick to him?

 

[The Moz]

No clue why any kicker kicks to him.. Better off letting Bears have it at the 40 then kicking to him. Better off just kicking it 30 yards and of bounds on punts !

There has never been a more dangerous person on special teams in nfl history !

 

[Weiner Dog]

When Hester breaks the record, it will most likely be a 5-minute yawner tribute on ESPN. IMO, it just doesn't hold any comparison to the records held at other "normal" positions.

What would LT or ADP do as a full-time KO/PR?? What about Moss??

 

[kethnaab]

What would LT or ADP do as a full-time KO/PR?? What about Moss??

not a whole lot, really. It's a very different type of vision/instinct

 

[brednbuddah]

When Hester breaks the record, it will most likely be a 5-minute yawner tribute on ESPN. IMO, it just doesn't hold any comparison to the records held at other "normal" positions.What would LT or ADP do as a full-time KO/PR?? What about Moss??

this may be true, but it def deserves some respect. L.Washington is entering his 3rd year and had 3 KOR for TDs last year, which is pretty sweet, but he's light years away from Hester's numbers.

 

[Mike Herman]

Brian Mitchell is one of the top return men in the history of the league. He currently holds the record for most returns for TDs at 13. It is his records that Devin Hester is likely going to obliterate in the next year or two. Mitchell recently talked about Hester. "It's inevitable. Many guys who are going to have records broken are upset or agitated. It makes me proud," Mitchell said. Mitchell, who does radio and TV work in Washington, where he spent 10 of his seasons with the Redskins, said he'd even go to watch Hester play if he was on the verge of tying his record, and congratulate him for doing it.

When it will happen, of course, is hard to predict. Likely next season sometime, even though Hester is now running into what Mitchell said he faced all through his career: the ball being kicked away from him. "Even my last two years people were trying to directional kick," said Mitchell, who also played three seasons with the Eagles and one with the Giants. He returned to Washington to sign a one-day contract and retire in 2005. His one bit of advice to Hester is to use some gamesmanship when punters try to angle it away. Study the kickers and counteract their tendencies. "Move a little bit. Once you learn all that, play with their minds," Mitchell said. "You can make them shank." Mitchell sees similarities between Hester and himself, at least from the way they approach kick returns. "I was the same, but he's faster than me. He doesn't do a lot of dancing around. He doesn't lose yardage. He's always going straight ahead."

link"I've got very high standards for myself. I'm not the best in the league right now. That's Mr. Hester. Until I'm better than him, it's not good enough."

- Dante Hall towards the end of 2007

 

[Chase Stuart]

While Hester isn't a bad kick returner, he's not that much better than average, and he's certainly not a top five kick returner in the league. He's not Washington, or Cribbs, or McGee, or MJD, or Pac-Man. Guys like Sproles, Justin Miller, Rock Cartwright and Dante Hall are really good, too.

What makes Hester, "Hester", is his punt return ability. He's got seven punt return TDs already in his career. He has just 89 career punt returns. Dave Megget has 349 career punt returns, and seven punt return TDs. The all-time leader is Eric Metcalf with 10 PR TDs, and it took him 351 punt returns to get that. Brian Mitchell has 463 punt returns, and 9 career punt return TDs. Dante Hall -- 207, and 6.

Metcalf returned 2.85% of his punts for TDs; Mitchell 1.94%; Howard 3.28%; UpchiRi00, 3.23%. And then there's Hester at 7.87%. Only Pac-Man Jones (6.35%) and Galloway (3.55%) are even over 3.50%, and have 60 career punt returns.

 

[BBRULE]

Pretty incredible when you look at it like that.

Curious. What is this guy's value in a PPR redraft this year? Isn't he going to be the Bears main weapon in the passing game too this year?

No, that would be Olsen.

 

[jurb26]

What would LT or ADP do as a full-time KO/PR?? What about Moss??

not a whole lot, really. It's a very different type of vision/instinct

Moss has a career TD:return ration of 1:10.

 

[gianmarco]

While Hester isn't a bad kick returner, he's not that much better than average, and he's certainly not a top five kick returner in the league. He's not Washington, or Cribbs, or McGee, or MJD, or Pac-Man. Guys like Sproles, Justin Miller, Rock Cartwright and Dante Hall are really good, too.What makes Hester, "Hester", is his punt return ability. He's got seven punt return TDs already in his career. He has just 89 career punt returns. Dave Megget has 349 career punt returns, and seven punt return TDs. The all-time leader is Eric Metcalf with 10 PR TDs, and it took him 351 punt returns to get that. Brian Mitchell has 463 punt returns, and 9 career punt return TDs. Dante Hall -- 207, and 6.Metcalf returned 2.85% of his punts for TDs; Mitchell 1.94%; Howard 3.28%; UpchiRi00, 3.23%. And then there's Hester at 7.87%. Only Pac-Man Jones (6.35%) and Galloway (3.55%) are even over 3.50%, and have 60 career punt returns.

How much of that is teams not kicking to him on kickoffs, which is easier to do than on punts........

 

[Lash]

While Hester isn't a bad kick returner, he's not that much better than average, and he's certainly not a top five kick returner in the league. He's not Washington, or Cribbs, or McGee, or MJD, or Pac-Man. Guys like Sproles, Justin Miller, Rock Cartwright and Dante Hall are really good, too.What makes Hester, "Hester", is his punt return ability. He's got seven punt return TDs already in his career. He has just 89 career punt returns. Dave Megget has 349 career punt returns, and seven punt return TDs. The all-time leader is Eric Metcalf with 10 PR TDs, and it took him 351 punt returns to get that. Brian Mitchell has 463 punt returns, and 9 career punt return TDs. Dante Hall -- 207, and 6.Metcalf returned 2.85% of his punts for TDs; Mitchell 1.94%; Howard 3.28%; UpchiRi00, 3.23%. And then there's Hester at 7.87%. Only Pac-Man Jones (6.35%) and Galloway (3.55%) are even over 3.50%, and have 60 career punt returns.

How much of that is teams not kicking to him on kickoffs, which is easier to do than on punts........

i disagree here, much easier to get to a directional kickoff that the kicker can't kick out of bounds and you can usually tell which way he will try to direct it, and the squibs can be lateralled backas a punt returner you often can't even see the punter and have a much harder time telling which side he will try to pin you down on, not to mention punting it OOB is an option for the punter

 

[boubucarow]

While Hester isn't a bad kick returner, he's not that much better than average, and he's certainly not a top five kick returner in the league. He's not Washington, or Cribbs, or McGee, or MJD, or Pac-Man. Guys like Sproles, Justin Miller, Rock Cartwright and Dante Hall are really good, too.What makes Hester, "Hester", is his punt return ability. He's got seven punt return TDs already in his career. He has just 89 career punt returns. Dave Megget has 349 career punt returns, and seven punt return TDs. The all-time leader is Eric Metcalf with 10 PR TDs, and it took him 351 punt returns to get that. Brian Mitchell has 463 punt returns, and 9 career punt return TDs. Dante Hall -- 207, and 6.Metcalf returned 2.85% of his punts for TDs; Mitchell 1.94%; Howard 3.28%; UpchiRi00, 3.23%. And then there's Hester at 7.87%. Only Pac-Man Jones (6.35%) and Galloway (3.55%) are even over 3.50%, and have 60 career punt returns.

What are you basing your evaluation of Hester as a kick returner upon? His four kickoff touchdown returns are tops in the last two year. His 26.4 KR average was fifth in the league last year. You must be basing your evaluation on his 21.4 average last year, right?My problem with that is that there is no kick returner that deals with as many directional and squib kicks as Hester does. Often last year, he picked up a grounder at the 20 or so yard line and got it the 35 or so yard line. That kills is per return average but his team was still starting in very good field position. The number of times he return kicks that allowed him little room for returns is not reflected in his numbers.I will say that while he is the best punt returner by far, he is merely the best kick returner with some competition nipping at his heals. His only drawback is that he is sometimes a bit too careless with catching returns at times and gives the other team opportunities to create big plays.

 

[el super gringo]

What would LT or ADP do as a full-time KO/PR?? What about Moss??

not a whole lot, really. It's a very different type of vision/instinct

Moss has a career TD:return ration of 1:10.

let's not forget brian westbrook and steve smith. i think the main reason hester has a chance to break the record is that anyone good enough to be scoring all those TD's on kickoffs usually has enough skill to do something more useful.