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Devin Hester - Roster him? (1 Viewer)

ourmanflint

Footballguy
Devin Hester is one of the most explosive players in the NFL. In his first season he was positively electric while ripping off a record 6 kick returns for TDs, including one in the Super Bowl, and over 1000 return yards.

This season he will be used as a receiver and thus could potentially have fantasy value on offense. However, I haven’t really seen too many fantasy advice sites showing any real enthusiasm about his prospects this year. I guess because there really isn’t much history to go on.

You see, in the 4 years he’s been in the national spotlight (3 at Miami and one in Chicago) he’s never contributed anything significant other than kick returns (ok and one blocked kick return). He had only 3 years in college to develop some sort of positional skills due to being academically ineligible his first year (2002) and coming out early after his junior year (2005). Of course, it’s not at all odd for future productive NFL receivers to come from other positions late in their college careers. Hines Ward comes to mind.

So are we about to witness his blossoming as a fantasy producing wideout? Do we have any sort of precedent for a player of this type moving to receiver and being successful? Well do you remember Roy Green? You might need to be my age to recall what a superb athlete this guy was.

Green played defensive back and returned kicks for Henderson State University in the late 70’s. He was pretty good at it as he made NAIA All-American and led the AIC in picks and punt returns. He was drafted by the St. Louis/Phoenix Cardinals and quickly excelled at returning kicks including a record tying 106-yarder against my beloved Cowboys his rookie year. He also played some cornerback. In 1981, he started playing wide receiver part-time and racked up 708 yards on only 33 catches (21.7 YPC) going for 4 scores. He added another TD on the ground.

The next year was a strike-shortened season (1982) but in 1983 and 1984 he would ascend to bonafide fantasy stud status. In 1983 Green caught 78 balls for 1227 yards (15.7 YPC) and 14 scores. Just in case you thought that was a fluke, he followed it up in 1984 with another 78 balls, this time for 1555 yards (20 YPC) and 12 scores. He would go on to have many productive seasons for the Cardinals, albeit none as good as 83’ and 84’, finishing in the top 10 in receptions twice and in yards and TDs 3 times. He is actually in the top 50 all time receivers for yards (42) and TDs (35). And all this from a guy who didn’t play any receiver in college.

Steve Smith did play receiver in college. In fact he was a standout at Utah setting the record for YPC at 20.6. His rookie year in the NFL Smith went to the Pro Bowl as a kick returner. He racked up an impressive 1431 return yards with 3 scores while catching only 10 balls for 154 yards. His next year he made the switch to WR catching 54 balls for 872 yards and 3 TDs. Of course, he is now arguably the most feared receiver in fantasy.

Will Hester be another Green or maybe Steve Smith? Or will he tantalize us and tease us with his God-given gifts but never produce real tangible fantasy numbers like Dave Meggett, Mel Gray or God forbid Dante Hall? What do we really have here in Devin Hester?

Hester attended Suncoast High School in Riviera Beach, Florida where he played cornerback, wide receiver, kick returner and running back. His accolades include Parade All-American, USA Today 1st-team All-USA, rated the nation's no. 1 cornerback on Max Emfinger's National Top 125 and being ranked the 6th best high school prospect in Florida by SuperPrep.com and the nation's No. 2 defensive back prospect. The list goes on forever. He participated in the 2002 CaliFlorida Bowl, where he returned a kick for an 80-yard touchdown. He also earned All-America honors in track and field and ranked second nationally in the long jump his junior year.

His final all-round high school stats were impressive. 94 rushes for 1014 yards (10 YPC) and 12 TDs. He caught 38 balls for 1028 yards (27 YPC!!) and 9 TDs. He even threw for 5 TDs and 225 yards. He made 156 tackles (75 solos), had three quarterback sacks, caused three fumbles and recovered a fumble as a senior on defense.

Scouts.com Mike Bakas wrote in June 23, 2001:

On the field, Hester has everything you want in an athlete. He plays running back, wide receiver, and cornerback and can rather easily dominate games from any of those three positions. I think his best position is at cornerback. He just is a rare football player at that spot. At his age, he's a better cornerback than Alfonso Marshall, Kelly Jennings, Mo Sikes, Marcus Maxey, and Leonard Myers. At this age, he's a better cover guy than Antrel Rolle. He's that good.

Well, he was so good, when he was recruited by FSU, Hester says he was told the Seminoles would take Prime Time’s jersey number out of retirement for him.

After being academically ineligible in 2002, Hester started his college career in 2003 playing wide receiver and returning kickoffs. He had 18 returns for 517 yards and 1 score. His 28.7 yards per return average ranked 6th nationally. On offense he caught only 4 balls for 116 yards.

Miami Coach Larry Coker said he wanted to use Hester more on an every-down basis but he was said to have struggled learning the offense and running correct routes. But is this so surprising for a freshman at the University of Miami? Maybe not.

In Hester’s sophomore year he moved around all over the place but he had a breakout season and turned into one of the most dangerous players in all of college football. He played in 12 games, with one start at fullback, one at tailback, two at nickelback and one at cornerback. He had 5 rushes for 80 yards and a TD and added 1 catch for 25 yards. He led the team with four interceptions, adding 12 tackles, one QB pressure and two pass breakups. He scored four touchdowns on returns (three punts, one kickoff), the second most in the country. He also returned a blocked field goal 78 yards for a score.

Hester’s junior year was very unHester-like. Battling hamstring problems he bounced from cornerback to wide receiver to tailback, as the coaching staff struggled to find him a home. He only made 11 solo tackles with an interception on defense, adding 94 yards on 15 carries and 55 yards on five receptions on offense. His returns also suffered because of nagging injuries, as he compiled only 312 yards on 22 punt returns with but 1 TD.

One has to wonder if Hester wasn’t held back at Miami due to his coach’s inability to properly use him. There were reports swirling that Hester couldn’t grasp the playbook and that was why he never became a full-time offensive player. Dan Werner, Miami's offensive coordinator in 2004-05, said he saw no evidence of that.

''He got caught going back and forth between offense and defense and never had a chance to show what he could do on the offensive side of the ball,'' said Werner. ''He was so talented, but he never found his niche except for being a kick returner.''

''We'd only get him for about five minutes a day, and we'd give him four or five plays and use him whenever we could,'' Werner said. ''The things we did with him he picked up fine. I don't know what it would be like to give him the whole game plan, but we didn't have any issues.'' As we all know, Hester’s Miami coaching staff is long gone!

After Hester’s stellar NFL rookie year returning punts, the Bears talked Hester into working as a receiver before mini-camps this year. In reality, offensive coordinator Ron Turner has been lobbying from the beginning believing Hester is an “elite” player and claimed he would try to get Hester 5-7 touches per game on offense.

In May, Lovie Smith stated: "There are a lot of different ways we can go. You can make a case for him being a slot receiver. You can make a case for him being a single receiver when we go to our two-tight end, two-running back packages. You can make a case for him from the running back position. "He's an offensive weapon right now. That's the only limit we put on him."

From the get, Hester impressed at his new position. He learned the offense and quickly started to improve his route running. All indications were that Hester might exceed expectations in making the difficult transition once again from defense to offense.

Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner said in late July that Hester's route-running and ability to absorb offensive plays and terminology surprised him and he referred to his transition to that point as “seamless”.

''We're trying to be careful with what we do with him, just like we do anytime we get someone new at the position,'' Turner said. ''There's a fine line. You don't want to ask them to do too much because then they can't do anything well. We're trying to zero in on what he can do well and give him a small package just like we did with Bernard [berrian] when he first got here. We're bringing him along slowly, but we're pleased with the transition so far and the progress that he's made.''

Sporting News, July 29, 2007 by Steve Greenberg:

"Maybe Steve Smith," says offensive coordinator Ron Turner when asked if he has ever been around a player as explosive and dynamic as Hester. "That would be the only other guy."

On deep routes, Hester beat every defensive back he could find Saturday. But his long ball potential is not what excites the Bears the most. Hester runs sharp routes and has good hands; with his open-field ability, he can be used in nearly any way Turner can cook up.

For a player who was a failed offensive experiment at Miami because, rumor has it, he couldn't learn the playbook, Hester clearly has been working overtime to make this chance count.

"He's an unbelievable athlete, and he catches the ball really great," quarterback Rex Grossman says. "But nothing surprises me with him. He's a great football player."

From Charles Robinson, Yahoo! Sports, July 30, 200:

"Steve Smith did it," Lovie Smith pointed out. "That's what we're banking on with Devin. I know there are some guys that haven't been able to make that transition, but we don't know anything about them. The guy that we see is Steve Smith. He's been maybe the most electrifying player in the league the last few years. There's no reason in our mind to think that Devin can't do that."

And while the first inclination is to think Chicago's coaching staff has lost its mind, it's worth noting that Lovie Smith typically has read the temperature of his team correctly in training camp. Two years ago, he boasted that the Bears could have the best defense in football, and they made good on the statement. Last season, he claimed the team was Super Bowl-worthy, and indeed they were. Now he looks at Hester and sees Steve Smith.

Hester hasn't disappointed, becoming easily the biggest buzz early in camp. He already has showcased the ability to hold his own with Chicago's pair of highly paid cornerbacks, Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher, and shown the ability to make spectacular catches.

"He runs good routes," Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner said. "I've been pleasantly surprised at how quickly he's adjusted to that. Now it's just a matter of making all the adjustments to the coverages and blitzes he's seeing on offense."

The Bears have limited his packages in the passing game thus far, also working in reverses and some work with Hester lined up in the backfield.

SI.COM Peter King, Aug 1, 2007:

For now, Hester is moving all over the formation. Strangely, the thing that could help him a lot is having the new tight end, Greg Olsen. Olsen could move to the slot occasionally and take up a safety's attention because he's too fast for most linebackers to cover. Hester has shown good hands so far, and a fearlessness the Bears knew about due to his daring return ability. But there's no lock he'll be able to make the transition. "He's put in the time he needed this offseason and really learned the position,'' Smith said. "He's made the position so much more competitive for us.''

ESPN, John Clayton, Aug. 1, 2007:

The story of camp is Hester. Bears beat writer John Mullin officially named the 2007 camp, "The Devin Hester Experience." Watching him run routes is like listening to old Jimi Hendrix records -- explosive, exciting and unpredictable. Any fan would love to hang from the "Watchtower" to see the show.

In 2006, Hester was the underground candidate for offensive rookie of the year by returning six kicks for touchdowns, including a kickoff for a score on the opening play of the Super Bowl. Turner and the team's other offensive coaches had been plotting to bring Hester's play-making skills to the offense. Their thought was Hester would be a natural for catching balls out of the backfield or as a receiver. In the spring, Hester caught just about every pass thrown his way.

"I started playing football when I was 4 years old, and I played wide receiver, quarterback and defensive back," Hester said. "God blessed me with the talent to catch the ball. When I had pickup games I would play quarterback and wide receiver. I'd do a quarterback sneak and just run the ball."

Now, the experiment is over. Hester is a receiver. Turner says that Hester will be on the field on offense more than the five or six plays a game he logged last season. Hester predicts about 30 plays; however, there is one problem. He is so valuable as a returner that the team can't afford to see Hester get hurt on offense. Coaches will have to find the right balance in order to keep him fresh and healthy for the entire season.

Sun Sentinel, August 31, 2007:

Offensive coordinator Ron Turner spent a year trying to convince Hester, who saw spot duty at cornerback as a rookie, to join his unit.

"I kept recruiting, and I kept recruiting, and I finally won," Turner says. "He's a guy with great burst, great speed, great cutting ability, outstanding hands, good size, a playmaker with his hands on the ball. There was every indication he could be a great receiver."

Darryl Drake, the Bears' receivers coach, also touts Hester's hands and body control, but urges patience since he expects everyone from the fans to Hester himself to want to rush it.

"You know, it takes guys years before they become proficient, become technicians running routes, understand the little intricacies that a player has to react to coverage-wise, and to understand angles or break points," Drake says.

So this is a controlled experiment. The Bears intend to deploy Hester selectively, in support of Muhsin Muhammad, Bernard Berrian, Rashied Davis, Mark Bradley, Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark.

There are probably countless other articles I could quote to tout Hester’s progress as a receiver in camp this year. But we get it, the guy is starting to come around with his route running and as we knew from the beginning, he is electric once he gets the ball. So what sort of numbers might we expect from Hester as a receiver this year?

One thing that history has told us is that guys like Hester can put up some serviceable numbers in their first year as a receiver after an initial successful year as just a kick returner. Roy Green did (33 rec/708 yd/4 td). Steve Smith did too (54 rec/872 yd/3 td). So we know “something” is possible. The problem is that the landscape is also littered with Dante Halls and Dave Meggetts.

One thing on Hester’s side is that he does appear to be even more explosive than any of those guys. He does hold the NFL return record after only one year. If you don’t count his fair catches, his touches to touchdowns ratio is about 11. Contrast this with that fact that mega-stud Tomlinson’s was over 13 last year, albeit his are all from scrimmage and Hester’s are all on returns.

I hope I’ve lit a fire under some of you sleeper gurus to come in here and give us your opinion on what sort of year you think Hester might have. Even if you think he’s not capable of anything more than several hundred yards and a handful of TDs, you have to admit he’s extremely interesting in dynasty leagues and leagues where his offensive numbers and return yards count together.

Good luck all!

 
He's not going to be a big part of the offense, so unless you get yards for returns, I don't think he's worth a spot.

 
Rex Grossman hurts his chances also..
Why is that the case? When Rex doesn't fumble a snap and doesn't turn the ball over, he's shown great flashes and he gets the ball to his receivers, so his poor play at times doesn't really affect his receivers too much. They don't get -2 FF Pts for his INTs or fumbles lost. Sure it cuts into opportunities slightly, but really has a negligible difference. I'd like to see the numbers, but I highly doubt Berrian, Muhammad, etc. saw, on average, many fewer targets in the games that Rex turned the ball over too much.On top of that, Hester's role will be very limited to a few offensive scenarios, with the Bears primarily getting him involved by using him in: wide receiver screens, short crossing routes where he can create a little separation, deep routes, end around, or as a decoy to draw attention from the defense. Rex usually doesn't have trouble connecting with receivers on shorter routes or WR screens, & throws an excellent deep ball (see Bernard Berrian in '06). So I don't really see how Rex negatively affects Hester's potential value.That said, I don't see Hester being roster worthy anyway if your league does not award points for return yardage. Hester won't see the field on offense more than maybe once a drive I would get, so probably less than 10 times a game. They're only going to utilize him in a few ways I mentioned above. He may break a big run and score a few TDs this year as a receiver, but is that something you're really going to want to guess at by inserting him in your starting lineup, cause aside from that, he won't be prducing much yardage in his limited time. Also, keep in mind, he's basically a WR4 or 5 for the Bears since Muhammad, Berrian, Bradley, and arguably Rashied Davis are ahead of him at the position. Also, the Bears kept a 6th WR Mike Hass, who has been very impressive in the preseason and in camp. Hass was on the bubble, and many thought he would get cut, because he is not a special teams player, so you have to think that since the Bears opted not to cut him, and he won't be playing special teams, they see enought to where they will want to get him involved as a receiver as well. Also throw Desmond Clark and Olsen in the mix at TE, two good pass catching FBs in McKie & Ayanbadejo, then Garrett Wolfe and even Benson a few times a game, that's a lot of targets to go around. I don't see Hester getting more and 2-3 touches a game, on offense anyway.
 
I think it's clear enough that Hester won't carry enough fantasy value in 2007 to ever consider starting him, even over guys generally sitting on the WW but are starters for their teams (Price, Walter, Jurevicius, etc.). The Bears' brain trust clearly state they plan to bring him along slowly.

Where the possibilities become intriguing are 2008 and 2009, because if they are indeed thinking "Steve Smith" with Hester, they will certainly expand his role and make him a starter at some point, and then we'll see if he truly has WR1 ability. The opportunity would be there since Muhammad is near the end and there is no dominant WR on the roster that Hester couldn't surpass if he's good enough. Berrian is a nice starting WR on the other side, but I think they are about out of patience with Bradley's constant injuries, and it was Bradley they'd been hoping could replace Muhammad at some point.

 
I've got him in one league... but it's pretty much a TD-only league, where his kick returning abilities make him valuable.

 

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