Difficulty of Schedule for Scoring Defenses (1 Viewer)

[cstruk]

I am in one of those rare leagues where Team Defense may be the most important position on the team. Defensive scoring is generally based upon not letting the other team's offense score as defensive TDs and Special Team TDs do not count against you. Generally all but 1 or 2 of the team defenses will be on someone's rosters so one does not have the option of picking up a defense to fill in unless one wants to play St. Louis or Miami. While FBGs does some work analyzing defenses, it appears that almost everything is geared to the leagues where defenses receive points for turnovers and sacks which is undertandable since that is the scoring methodology for most leagues.

Because of the improtance of defense in my leagues, I spend a lot of time analyzing defensive strength of schedule. So here goes:

I apologize for the poor spacing as I could not figure out how to space it properly.

OPS = Opponent Offensive Pts scored (All TDs =7 and FGs =3 as I don't spend the time looking at missed extra points or 2 point conversions)

Team - 2007 OPS; 2007 Schedule Rank; 2008 OPS; 2008 Schedule Rank

New England 4908 8 4477 1

Miami 5289 28 4831 8

Buffalo 5446 32 5078 16

NY Jets 5224 26 4909 11

Baltimore 5341 30 5514 31

Pittsburgh 4997 13 5653 32

Cincinnati 4869 5 5264 25

Cleveland 4902 6 5268 26

Tennessee 5156 23 5342 29

Jacksonville 4963 10 5204 23

Indianapolis 5080 18 5503 30

Houston 5114 20 5320 28

Denver 4969 11 4825 7

Oakland 5070 17 4710 3

Kansas City 5126 21 4860 9

San Diego 5046 16 4742 4

Dallas 4949 9 5158 19

Philadelphia 5359 31 5185 21

Washington 5340 29 5319 27

NY Giants 5106 19 5187 22

Detroit 5144 22 5050 15

Green Bay 4807 3 5139 17

Minnesota 4970 12 5231 24

Chicago 5247 27 5156 18

Tampa Bay 4905 7 4895 10

New Orleans 4827 4 4592 2

Carolina 5220 25 4917 12

Atlanta 5033 15 4798 5

San Francisco 5024 14 5172 20

St. Louis 5157 24 4994 14

Arizona 4744 2 4798 6

Seattle 4700 1 4941 13

So what does this tell me?

I use 200 points as being a significant difference.

The teams in red have schedules where their 2008 opponents scored significantly fewer points in 2007 than their 2007 opponents scored in 2007 - meaning they face an easier schedule this year. (New England, Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo, Oakland, Kansas City, San Diego, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta

The teams in blue have schedules where their 2008 opponents scored significantly more points in 2007 than the teams they will faced in 2007 - meaning a harder schedule this year. (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Houston, Dallas, Green Bay, Minnesota, Seattle)

Among the leaders from last year, New England sticks out as facing one of the easiest schedules I have ever seen. If they can make up for the loss of Samuel, this defense should be the best in the league. San Diego also faces a much easier schedule whereas Seattle, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis face tougher schedules and I would expect them to give up more points. In particular, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis face tough schedules and should not be picked unless they represent very good value. (Of course, this may result in Peyton having to throw the ball some more as they need to score more points than last year.)

Of the others, I like the Bills and Jets as they have both added some good players in addition to having a better schedule. New Orleans also plays a very easy schedule. However, they had an easy schedule last year and still stunk so I am not sure how much improvement you will see from them this year.

On the other hand, Minnesota faces a more difficult schedule and despite the players they have acquired may give up more points. Baltimore still plays a very tough schedule so I would not see them having a good year despite being healthier as they also have an offense that is not going to control the ball and will turn it over often.

Any thoughts?

 

[Riffraff]

Points against is an under utilized team defense scoring variable. Wish more leagues used it.

Only detractor for this topic is that previous year's strength of schedule only helps you so much. Teams change styles, coaching, and personnel.

Of course, like offensive projections, it is based highly on the previous year's performance. An inexact science.

Good work on your topic. Nice contribution.

 

[cstruk]

Thanks for the kudos.

I agree with wish that more leagues placed some improtance on scoring defense. My one league with the scoring defense is my favorite league because of the scoring and that you do not have to have top RBs to win the league. In fact, most years you would rather have the number one Overall Defense than the top RB. QBs are also more highly valued. As a result, the LT pick is not nearly so heavily valued which is a pleasnt change from the normal league.

 

[Fantasy Strategist]

Thanks for the kudos. I agree with wish that more leagues placed some improtance on scoring defense. My one league with the scoring defense is my favorite league because of the scoring and that you do not have to have top RBs to win the league. In fact, most years you would rather have the number one Overall Defense than the top RB. QBs are also more highly valued. As a result, the LT pick is not nearly so heavily valued which is a pleasnt change from the normal league.

Nice post. We use the points scored against as well. We start to receive negative points once 24 points or so is scored against our defense so it's even more important. I like the Pats and Bolts too but won't be willing to draft them where I would have to, to get them. I agree with you on the Bills...probably be on all my teams. Denver scares me like the Saints do. I may take a shot on Oakland or Carolina.