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Dion Lewis (1 Viewer)
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Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Does this change anyone's mind about how quickly Dion makes a fantasy impact?
There were no guarantees he was suiting up for this game, and even if there were, it's a Patriot Guarantee, meaning it'd be complete bull####.
I was hopeful Dion would play but not too surprised he didn't. I think he will likely have a game or two getting the rust knocked off. And of course, earn his playing time.
But I thought he'd hit stride quickly to potentially be flexible in my lineup to give me the push for the playoffs.
My timetable may have changed with Lewis being inactive. I fear maybe it could be a slower ramp than I expected, and maybe Lewis will contribute weeks 15 and 16.
Is this rational? Why or why not?
There were no guarantees he was suiting up for this game, and even if there were, it's a Patriot Guarantee, meaning it'd be complete bull####.
I was hopeful Dion would play but not too surprised he didn't. I think he will likely have a game or two getting the rust knocked off. And of course, earn his playing time.
But I thought he'd hit stride quickly to potentially be flexible in my lineup to give me the push for the playoffs.
My timetable may have changed with Lewis being inactive. I fear maybe it could be a slower ramp than I expected, and maybe Lewis will contribute weeks 15 and 16.
Is this rational? Why or why not?
mnmplayer
Footballguy
this move really screwed me up ... forced me to drop some lotto tickets. Damn u BB and your head games. 
lol 
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Because it's BB, and as I'd mentioned earlier in the topic, trying to guess what the Pats will do with their RBs is a fool'a errand.
And BB loves screwing with his opponents, who were in the same information void as fantasy owners.
BB hates your fantasy team. Always has, always will.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This.
That said I think he'll likely be active/involved next week.
How much reason for optimism with BB's comments about outperforming White, I have no idea. Depends who you ask - Lewis owners seem to think it's a lock they kick White to the curb.
I own neither & I'm skeptical of that. White has worked hard and performed well. Lewis, if recovered and back to form, adds another weapon for BB to spread it around.
tombonneau
Footballguy
They are comparable receivers, but Lewis is much better in the open field and about 10x the runner that White is. Plus, Lewis can break tackles while White tends to go down on first contact (gotten a little better this year though).
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Agree that he'll be active, and agree with your skepticism that Lewis simply takes the job outright.
Guess there is some degree of probability that happens, but it really would take a mammoth effort with the kind of shuck and juke ankle breaking moves, multiple TDs, etc.
More probable is that Lewis needs to ramp in, and White indeed has been solid (if not spectacular) in his role and deserves to still be involved until it's clear that he is a far inferior option on the field than Lewis. That's true looking backward at the relative volume and quality of work between Lewis and White. But as the adage says, past results may not fully be a predictor of the future.
Charlie Harper
Footballguy
Got burned. I didn't start Lewis, but I felt comfortable trading Blount (DJ, Ware, Booker, and Dion are my other RBs), with the thought that Dion would see the field this week and then be ready to go vs SF to cover Booker's bye at my flex spot. Ugh.
I generally don't start players coming off long injuries, but might not have any other options with FAAB low. If Dion's declared active that matchup is tempting.
I generally don't start players coming off long injuries, but might not have any other options with FAAB low. If Dion's declared active that matchup is tempting.
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Dope
Footballguy
This is a complete guess into the inner workings of BB's mind...
Maybe, he expects that Seattle is a possible Super Bowl opponent. He did not want to put Lewis on the field against them so they couldn't get a feel for what Dion can do. It's one thing to look at film, it's another to experience the shimmy-shake up close and personal.
I'd expect him to get his feet wet against SF. More work against tough D's like the Jets and Rams (kinda tough D's like...hmmmm...Seattle?) By then the division may be locked up. so rest against the Ravens and Broncos (potential playoff teams) and finish up with tune up games against the Jets again and the Dolphins.
How that for Belichekian plausibleness?
Maybe, he expects that Seattle is a possible Super Bowl opponent. He did not want to put Lewis on the field against them so they couldn't get a feel for what Dion can do. It's one thing to look at film, it's another to experience the shimmy-shake up close and personal.
I'd expect him to get his feet wet against SF. More work against tough D's like the Jets and Rams (kinda tough D's like...hmmmm...Seattle?) By then the division may be locked up. so rest against the Ravens and Broncos (potential playoff teams) and finish up with tune up games against the Jets again and the Dolphins.
How that for Belichekian plausibleness?
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
this loss will only help his value.
Tempted to start once he is active...
Tempted to start once he is active...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Wat?
They had the game won at the 1 yard line with 4 shots at it.
Blount couldn't punch it in, Brady couldn't sneak it in, Gronk couldn't reel it in.
What does that have to do with Lewis' value?
mphtrilogy
Footballguy
Just a gut call, rounding out the offense with another dynamic player. Just looking at the schedule and the record
@ SF, @ nyj, rams, ravens, @ den, nyj, @ mia
this loss last night helps them have to keep pace with the west teams at 7 wins...
my feeling as maybe they felt they can sneak him into soft duty, maybe he will now be unleashed..
I don't know, who does with bb???
@ SF, @ nyj, rams, ravens, @ den, nyj, @ mia
this loss last night helps them have to keep pace with the west teams at 7 wins...
my feeling as maybe they felt they can sneak him into soft duty, maybe he will now be unleashed..
I don't know, who does with bb???
Anarchy99
Footballguy
They had the game won? They were down 7 points.
NE should be exploring their play calling as to why they could score on 4 shots from the one yard line. Gronk could have just run into the end zone and turned around and caught a pass. Or he could have had a Michel higher chance of a square in in single coverage. But a corner fade running into the defender had a low chance to work.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
is it fair to wonder if Lewis is going to return to 100% of what he was?
The assumption over the last few pages seems to be that The Pats will jump from White to Lewis like jumping out of an Acura and into a Porsche.
What happens if it's more like jumping from an Acura into a souped up Mitsubishi?
The assumption over the last few pages seems to be that The Pats will jump from White to Lewis like jumping out of an Acura and into a Porsche.
What happens if it's more like jumping from an Acura into a souped up Mitsubishi?
Urgency to continue to win. Teams don't like to lose.
Not saying I agree, but I don't disagree with the logic.
Still seems like a lot of hoping in this thread. I'm a desperate Dion owner, but it may be some time.
One other take is that BB doesn't see Dion ahead of White yet, regardless of health. The report today said Lewis wouldn't have been on the injury report if active. That could change fairly soon; I would not be surprised in the coming weeks to see Dion active and White inactive. Could be an immediate flip between the two, instead of the gradual shift some are predicting. That seems to fit the pats' way of doing business (Caution: I'm not a Pats homer)
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Sorry, they had the game tied.
My bad - I forgot Seattle went for 2 (which I thought was ridiculous at the time)
On the last play they had Gronk lined up at fullback and I thought,"ballsy, but probably effective!"
then he split out wide and they lost.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have been suggesting that one outcome is Lewis is not the 2015 model for pages and pages. I still think the most likely outcome is they slow play Lewis to get him back as close to last year by the NFL playoffs, which likely means his fantasy value would be only so so for this year.
This for sure. My opponent has Gronk and it's a close game....those last 2 plays where they put him out wide one on one with the much shorter db I thought for sure they would just throw him a jump ball. That was weird.
mnmplayer
Footballguy
The clock got pushed back one week with him being inactive, but anyone hanging on should have other options they have been using all year. Most of us were pointing to wk11 anyway. Wk 10 was not really in the cards until they took him off the pup, and people (including me) got a little bit excited about seeing him play this past weekend. That didn't happen, and it doesn't bother me if I have to let the fine wine sit another week to age, or if it takes a few games to ease him in. Nobody, but the most desperate should be starting him in the first week he is active, whenever that will be. It makes a lot more sense to see how his first game action goes and project from there. Each week a little more will be revealed and for those in the playoff hunt, there is still ample time for him to contribute, greatly as a fresh force during high leverage, late season games.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not going to go back and look at every post but as I recall everyone said a healthy/in-shape Lewis was a much better player than White. I don't think anyone would argue that he'd come out right away and take over until he's fully back.
gethugefast1
Footballguy
BB & Tommy would have loved to have the 2015 Lewis last night 
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agree with this.BB & Tommy would have loved to have the 2015 Lewis last night
After the BB quote about having to do something special to displace White, I thought some were suggesting that we should "read between the lines", and that it was a lock given Lewis ability.
look at lewis' snap percentage early in 2015 when he was a top end rb1 for 7 weeks.... some games he got close to 75% of the snaps... does anyone really think anything over 50% is possible as long as blount and white are healthy for the rest of this season?
i was stashing him in 2 redraft leagues but i may try to move him this week as a filler in trades hoping the name value carries more weight than i think he is worth
Yes, if/when the coaches decide he's healthy enough for a full load. He gives the NE offense options that neither Blount nor White can offer. There will still be "Blount games", but he'll be involved in the passing game throughout. To me, there is no comparison between White and Lewis; can you see Blount describing White's game as "nasty"? Yeah...no.iamkoza said:
Week 1, Blount was suspended; week 2, Blount got 7 snaps (either bringing him in slowly, a team "punishment," or game-plan). In the other 5 games Lewis played last year, he had 44%, 71%, 57%, 54%, & 30% of the snaps. And those numbers were without White being a factor. I would think that 50% is Lewis' upside for snap counts, barring an injury to Blount or White.iamkoza said:
Why does this matter? Pretty sure Blount doesn't decide RB usage in NE.
Just to clarify, how did White do this weekend after Blount described his game as "nasty?"
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Those stats mean very little on their own IMO.
How many fantasy points did Lewis score during those games? What were the scores of the game (Pats get an early lead, they're going to grind with Blount)? Were they playing teams strong against the run/pass catching backs? Was that 30% the game he got injured?
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Knowing those things mean very little on their own, as well. Unless you are able to predict the future to determine if the Pats will get out to an early lead in games that Lewis might be active for, that doesn't help.
As far as whether those teams were strong against run/pass catching backs, Lewis still has to share with White.
I do believe the 30% game was the one he got injured in, but he played deep into the 3rd quarter, if I'm not mistaken.
The whole point was (in response to a question about Lewis' possible snap counts) that although Lewis did have a few games in 2015 where he got 75% of the snap counts, in most of the games where he and Blount were equally likely to be involved, he saw a much smaller % of the snaps (smaller than 75%, that is). With the addition of White as a viable, effective option, projecting Lewis for more than 50% of the snaps seems unwise.
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mnmplayer
Footballguy
Lewis put up rb1 production on an avg of 12 touches per game, which is well within the framework of expected usage, and i don't agree with the bolded.... Lewis still has to share with White ...
I do believe the 30% game was the one he got injured in, but he played deep into the 3rd quarter, if I'm not mistaken.
The whole point was ... projecting Lewis for more than 50% of the snaps seems unwise.
You don't have to agree...you aren't making the decision about RB usage in NE either.
The guy who is has (BB) said that "it would quite a bit" (to do better than White), and "it would take somebody playing pretty good to be better than him."
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Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
What else is BB supposed to say? "Anyone with a pulse on the active roster takes White's spot." or "We're just waiting for a game changer like Lewis to be activated and ready and then White is on the bench."
Dizzy
Footballguy
Agreed. These teams in the AFC West are a real threat to the #1 seed. Patriots could probably sit Gronk against SFF and still win by 30, but tough games loom on the schedule and easy to see Lewis having a LOT of catches in those match-ups (assuming he is healthy).
True, coach speak is often just words. BB's actions, thus far, however, i.e.-making him a game day inactive after practicing all week & looking "nasty;" demonstrates that he meant what he said.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, they have one really tough game (at Denver). The other games they "should" win (@SF, @NYJ, LA, BAL, NYJ, @MIA).
The AFC West teams all still have to play each other, so it is somewhat unlikely someone will run away with the division.
KC has to play DEN twice, OAK once, and @ATL.
OAK has to play @KC and @ DEN.
DEN has to play KC twice and OAK once.
Based on a better conference record, NE (for now) holds the time breaker with KC.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have a somewhat different take, which is nothing but my own speculation. I think there is probably an element of BB being PO'd at Lewis for taking this long to be able to play, when there had been talk that NE wanted him Dion to get his second knee surgery months before he did. From what I remember, Lewis opted to try to get better with rest and without surgery, which clearly didn't end up being the solution.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not sure he's even thinking either of those thing.
Not singling you out here, as many in this topic are guilty of this, but the difference between fantasy owners vs coaching decisions seems to be that fantasy owners see players as pieces on a chess board; or maybe more accurately like player/characters in a game of Dungeons & Dragons.
It objectifies the player and dehumanizes the decision making process by breaking the players down to their most basic statistical contributions.
"Well of course Lewis will come in and take all the carries and receptions from White, making White obsolete! Lewis has a +3 Jock Strap of Anti-Itch and +4 Cleats of Juking! Plus he's got 17 DEX and 14 CON compared to White's 12 DEX and 16 CON! Sure White's constitution is worth something, but It's worth switching to Lewis for the dexterity saving throws against tackling alone! Every idiot can see that!" says the Dungeons and Drag-er, fantasy football player.
By comparison, coaches see a human being on a playing field and in practice day in & day out.
Coaches will often reward players for contributing and make returning players earn their roles or prove their ability again after a long layoff. It's not as simple as looking at a stat sheet (or character sheet) and swapping in one for the other.
IMO you're significantly short-changing White's contributions thus far in the quote above - he's clearly performed well in Lewis' absence. In my opinion, BB is highly likely to keep him involved, especially if Gronk misses time. And I'm pretty sure BB doesn't care what Lewis did last year or how many snaps he played or what his +4 Cleats of Juking do for him on paper. BB coaches human beings who have earned trust and respect through hard work.
that in part is what makes coaching decisions incredibly difficult - what seems cut and dry when looking at what Lewis did last year, while healthy, as a whole, doesn't necessarily lend insight to what BB will do with Lewis, coming back from a long layoff after a significant injury on the current Patriots roster. Even if 100% heathy, team is still relevant. Chemistry is still relevant. The Pats lost a close one against Seattle. The Seattle defense came to play and played well, especially in the final series.
Could they have used Lewis in that game? Of course they could have - he's yet another weapon. Would using Lewis have guaranteed a different outcome? Hard to say but I seriously doubt it.
Even with his +3 Jock Strap of Anti-Itch.
just making an observation about what I see as a recurring theme in fantasy sports. It's never black and white in sports. There are all kinds of gray area factors that go into coaching decisions, and they're often complicated. What seems like a no-brainer to a fantasy owner might be the most difficult decision a coach has to make all year; especially if it means demoting a hard worker who's been a solid contributor in a winning season. Some coaches won't do that.
No idea what will happen with Lewis, but some folks here are looking at this situation far too mathematically and totally losing sight of the human element IMO.
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BigBlue_RI
Footballguy
I'm cutting him for Procise in my 10-team league. Rather have a guy who is going to contrib right away then "maybe" in a week or two.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
That's an interesting observation, and a pretty solid example of the human element I was referring to above.
Hu-Tang Clan
Footballguy
Nice post and for the record, I didn't say that was what BB was thinking, just that he's going to say positive things and not negative ones but perhaps I should've specified that. What would be an interesting dynamic though is to have both White and Lewis on the field at the same time since both could catch or run the ball. Those 2 with double TE's would be tough to match up to.Not sure he's even thinking either of those thing.
Not singling you out here, as many in this topic are guilty of this, but the difference between fantasy owners vs coaching decisions seems to be that fantasy owners see players as pieces on a chess board; or maybe more accurately like player/characters in a game of Dungeons & Dragons.
It objectifies the player and dehumanizes the decision making process by breaking the player's down to their most basic statistical contributions.
"Well of course Lewis will come in and take all the carries and receptions from White, making White obsolete! Lewis has a +3 Jock Strap of Anti-Itch and +4 Cleats of Juking! Plus he's got 17 DEX and 14 CON compared to White's 12 DEX and 16 CON! Sure White's constitution is worth something, but It's worth switching to Lewis for the dexterity saving throws against tackling alone! Every idiot can see that!" says the Dungeons and Drag-er, fantasy football player.
By comparison, coaches see a human being on a playing field and in practice day in & day out.
Coaches will often reward players for contributing and make returning players earn their roles or prove their ability again after a long layoff. It's not as simple as looking at a stat sheet (or character sheet) and swapping in one for the other.
IMO you're significantly short-changing White's contributions thus far in the quote above - he's clearly performed well in Lewis' absence. In my opinion, BB is highly likely to keep him involved, especially if Gronk misses time. And I'm pretty sure BB doesn't care what Lewis did last year or how many snaps he played or what his +4 Cleats of Juking do for him on paper. BB coaches human beings who have earned trust and respect through hard work.
that in part is what makes coaching decisions incredibly difficult - what seems cut and dry when looking at what Lewis did last year, while healthy, as a whole, doesn't necessarily lend insight to what BB will do with Lewis, coming back from a long layoff after a significant injury on the current Patriots roster. Even if 100% heathy, team is still relevant. Chemistry is still relevant. The Pats lost a close one against Seattle. The Seattle defense came to play and played well, especially in the final series.
Could they have used Lewis in that game? Of course they could have - he's yet another weapon. Would using Lewis have guaranteed a different outcome? Hard to say but I seriously doubt it.
Even with his +3 Jock Strap of Anti-Itch.
just making an observation about what I see as a recurring theme in fantasy sports. It's never black and white in sports. There are all kinds of gray area that goes into coaching decisions, and they're often complicated. What seems like a no-brainer to a fantasy owner might be the most difficult decision a coach has to make all year; especially if it means demoting a hard worker who's been a solid contributor in a winning season. Some coaches won't do that.
No idea what will happen with Lewis, but some folks here are looking at this situation far too mathematically and totally losing sight of the human element IMO.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
This was part of the plan back in OTA's and training camp, but Lewis being dinged put a damper on that. IIRC, White was originally practicing with the WR grouping and not the RB group. From what I read at the time, White was participating in receiving drills not rushing drills. That certainly could be coming in the upcoming weeks.
Some people are making a huge deal of a small sample from a year ago & ignoring BBs history in order to justify their view/position on Lewis. BB has a history of not getting emotionally tied to players. Even Brady has said BB would cut /trade him, if he thought it was best for NE (although I doubt that would happen). But, for some reason, this isn't true for Lewis; b/c he had a good 7 games, BB is gonna ignore the fact that NE has done damn good with White & will reward Lewis with his "old" amount of snaps, because he "deserves" it?
This doesn't account for anarchy's theory that there's something we don't know (Lewis didn't get the surgery soon enough) that is at play.
The point is that assuming Lewis will get the opps, and produce like he did, from that 7 game stretch, isn't a good idea, based on what we know about BB, and what we've seen and heard, THIS SEASON.
This doesn't account for anarchy's theory that there's something we don't know (Lewis didn't get the surgery soon enough) that is at play.
The point is that assuming Lewis will get the opps, and produce like he did, from that 7 game stretch, isn't a good idea, based on what we know about BB, and what we've seen and heard, THIS SEASON.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Ah, that makes sense - and like I said,wasn't trying to throw you under the bus. While you weren't saying that specifically, that seems to be how a lot of fantasy managers think about coaches and coaching decisions.
Agreed. And if Gronke isn't as hurt as initially suspected, that may well be what happens.
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mnmplayer
Footballguy
I don't want to single you out either, as I chuckled and enjoyed this post, but then how do you explain Rawls/Michael? Sometimes the coach just picks the best player when he wants to win. I realize this is oversimplification, and BB is not the HC of Seattle, but in fantasy AND real life, usually the best player is on the field ... USUALLY!Not sure he's even thinking either of those thing.
Not singling you out here, as many in this topic are guilty of this, but the difference between fantasy owners vs coaching decisions seems to be that fantasy owners see players as pieces on a chess board; or maybe more accurately like player/characters in a game of Dungeons & Dragons.
It objectifies the player and dehumanizes the decision making process by breaking the players down to their most basic statistical contributions.
"Well of course Lewis will come in and take all the carries and receptions from White, making White obsolete! Lewis has a +3 Jock Strap of Anti-Itch and +4 Cleats of Juking! Plus he's got 17 DEX and 14 CON compared to White's 12 DEX and 16 CON! Sure White's constitution is worth something, but It's worth switching to Lewis for the dexterity saving throws against tackling alone! Every idiot can see that!" says the Dungeons and Drag-er, fantasy football player.
By comparison, coaches see a human being on a playing field and in practice day in & day out.
Coaches will often reward players for contributing and make returning players earn their roles or prove their ability again after a long layoff. It's not as simple as looking at a stat sheet (or character sheet) and swapping in one for the other.
IMO you're significantly short-changing White's contributions thus far in the quote above - he's clearly performed well in Lewis' absence. In my opinion, BB is highly likely to keep him involved, especially if Gronk misses time. And I'm pretty sure BB doesn't care what Lewis did last year or how many snaps he played or what his +4 Cleats of Juking do for him on paper. BB coaches human beings who have earned trust and respect through hard work.
that in part is what makes coaching decisions incredibly difficult - what seems cut and dry when looking at what Lewis did last year, while healthy, as a whole, doesn't necessarily lend insight to what BB will do with Lewis, coming back from a long layoff after a significant injury on the current Patriots roster. Even if 100% heathy, team is still relevant. Chemistry is still relevant. The Pats lost a close one against Seattle. The Seattle defense came to play and played well, especially in the final series.
Could they have used Lewis in that game? Of course they could have - he's yet another weapon. Would using Lewis have guaranteed a different outcome? Hard to say but I seriously doubt it.
Even with his +3 Jock Strap of Anti-Itch.
just making an observation about what I see as a recurring theme in fantasy sports. It's never black and white in sports. There are all kinds of gray area factors that goes into coaching decisions, and they're often complicated. What seems like a no-brainer to a fantasy owner might be the most difficult decision a coach has to make all year; especially if it means demoting a hard worker who's been a solid contributor in a winning season. Some coaches won't do that.
No idea what will happen with Lewis, but some folks here are looking at this situation far too mathematically and totally losing sight of the human element IMO.
ETA: I know I know, Michael seems to be a head case and roster cancer, and might have been cut for other reasons, but the bolded still applies here.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think it's the same answer, though as you even eluded to it's not a great comparison since with Lewis/White we're only comparing talent since all other factors seem relatively equal.
n this case, Michael has long been though of as a $10 talent with a $0.10 head, as the old expression goes.
So the coaching decision is to cut a guy with +2 Socks of Power and a 15 DEX because the dude drawing up his character sheet rolled a 4 and needed to put it somewhere - so he chose INT.
(sad trombone)Rawls may not even play much this week they're saying. He may not really be that much more talented than Michael. But if he's more coachable, more capable of learning the playbook and a better fit with the team personality-wise, then Rawls is the easy choice. I don't think either could carry Lynch's jock though.
