Do NFL GM's spend too much time on early round talent (1 Viewer)

[Andy Dufresne]

Seems like more often than not a team that starts out strong quickly fades as the draft progresses. I wonder if this is because teams spend SO much time examining the early round talent (they are a very expensive investment, after all) that they kind of throw darts a bit as the draft progresses.

Take the Vikings and Spielman for example. I can't believe they felt that guys like Jarius Wright in the third round and Greg Childs in the fifth would help as much as a guy like Rueben Randle would in the top of the 2nd (where they surely had enough ammo to move into).

Or maybe it's because the machismo sets in and they want to prove that they're the smartest guys in the room because "look at the gem I turned up" factor?

Anyway, I just shake my head at the bypassing of some apparently solid picks in the early rounds because it looks like they're rolling the dice on guys they like just as much later on - leading to a lot of "head scratchers".

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

late round picks are like bingo. Pure luck usually if they amount to anything.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Yes, for the most part. Seattle does a great job of stealing late round talent so I can't say 100% they spend to much time on early round talent, but 96.8% of NFL GMs do.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

late round picks are like bingo. Pure luck usually if they amount to anything.

I guess it's not even the later round guys that I think about. Some teams seem to consistently start blowing it in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

late round picks are like bingo. Pure luck usually if they amount to anything.

I guess it's not even the later round guys that I think about. Some teams seem to consistently start blowing it in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

right, well look at the lions draft. They clearly have the top XX players mapped out, BPA so to say. Then after that ####### Mayhew finally said, I need CB and LB depth badly and that is what they drafted for the whole rest of the draft. You cant tell me that all those CBs and LBs were at the top of their board. SD chargers seems to have a philosphy of drafting Olinemen later in the draft, alwasy have since AJ smith took over.

 

[FDC]

I always thought 3rd/4th round picks usually meant 2nd/3rd round grades. I am guessing there are some 3rd rounders out there that had some 1st round grades as well.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

late round picks are like bingo. Pure luck usually if they amount to anything.

I guess it's not even the later round guys that I think about. Some teams seem to consistently start blowing it in the 3rd and 4th rounds.

right, well look at the lions draft. They clearly have the top XX players mapped out, BPA so to say. Then after that ####### Mayhew finally said, I need CB and LB depth badly and that is what they drafted for the whole rest of the draft. You cant tell me that all those CBs and LBs were at the top of their board. SD chargers seems to have a philosphy of drafting Olinemen later in the draft, alwasy have since AJ smith took over.

So you think they follow the "throw mud against the wall" type philosophy after round 3-ish?

 

[zed2283]

Brian Billick had the best line of the weekend when they were recapping the draft and Rich Eisen talked about looking back at his fantasy draft at the end of each year and lamenting where he screwed up etc. and asked if that's what the teams do with the real draft and Billick said "I didn't get fantasy fired."

 

[Hang 10]

I don't agree at all.

I'd say teams and scouts do exhaustive work on late round picks. Just because you tend to value guys you've heard of and guys on draftnik hacks board doesn't mean teams arent doing their homework when they go off script.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Seems like more often than not a team that starts out strong quickly fades as the draft progresses. I wonder if this is because teams spend SO much time examining the early round talent (they are a very expensive investment, after all) that they kind of throw darts a bit as the draft progresses.Take the Vikings and Spielman for example. I can't believe they felt that guys like Jarius Wright in the third round and Greg Childs in the fifth would help as much as a guy like Rueben Randle would in the top of the 2nd (where they surely had enough ammo to move into).Or maybe it's because the machismo sets in and they want to prove that they're the smartest guys in the room because "look at the gem I turned up" factor?Anyway, I just shake my head at the bypassing of some apparently solid picks in the early rounds because it looks like they're rolling the dice on guys they like just as much later on - leading to a lot of "head scratchers".

I think it's a philosophical problem.Bad teams draft guys with 'the best grade' in the later rounds. The problem is that you're much much better off drafting a guy with a lousy grade who has a 10% chance of becoming an impact player than you are drafting a guy you're 100% sure is an average dude, but that you know a lot about. Uncertainty is actually your friend later in the draft! Draft players from small schools, draft potentially good players who were injured and missed a year or two, draft players who have excellent measurables who did well in their few chances, but for whatever reason didn't have much of an opportunity in college.The Giants do this ALL the time. And one example that sort of shows it is Adrien Robinson - their 6th round pick at TE. He only caught 29 passes in four years at Cincinnati, but has great measurables and came on just a bit as a senior - catching 18 passes. I'm not as high on him because he'll turn 24 early in the season and most development happens before 24 (in the NFL and in the human brain). But who knows - he's definitely a better shot than the guy you're 99% sure is an average role player in the NFL (you can get those guys as FAs - don't waste your lottery tickets on them).Shorter: you're better off using later draft picks on a player with a 90% chance of being a flop and a 10% chance of being a 'stud' than you are drafting a player you're 100% sure isn't a potential star. Hitting two or three Bradys, Romos, Colstons, Garcons or Stevie Johnsons provides an enormous advantage even on a team with 53 players rostered.Players I think fit that bill this year:Nick FolesRobert TurbinBrandon Bolden (guessing there's a medical or character concern here though - which we usually don't know about)Junior HemingwayLadarius GreenJames Hanna

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I don't agree at all. I'd say teams and scouts do exhaustive work on late round picks. Just because you tend to value guys you've heard of and guys on draftnik hacks board doesn't mean teams arent doing their homework when they go off script.

I think you're right about scouts. Not so sure about GMs.

 

[MAC_32]

Some fall in love with their guys and get too cute.

Some don't spend enough time on the late rounds.

Some don't spend enough time on the early rounds.

It varies team to team, in the end you need to trust the people you have hired to do their jobs. No matter how strong of a talent evaluator a GM and a coach is they can't be scouting most of these players year-round. For most of them, 80-90% of their scouting is done from January to April and there's nothing wrong with that. They need a strong support system that collects good data between April and January so they use that time wisely.

 

[FDC]

Players I think fit that bill this year:Nick FolesRobert TurbinBrandon Bolden (guessing there's a medical or character concern here though - which we usually don't know about)Junior HemingwayLadarius GreenJames Hanna

I agree with your post. I think Dwight Jones deserves a mention in this group.

 

[Donnybrook]

Seems like more often than not a team that starts out strong quickly fades as the draft progresses. I wonder if this is because teams spend SO much time examining the early round talent (they are a very expensive investment, after all) that they kind of throw darts a bit as the draft progresses.

Take the Vikings and Spielman for example. I can't believe they felt that guys like Jarius Wright in the third round and Greg Childs in the fifth would help as much as a guy like Rueben Randle would in the top of the 2nd (where they surely had enough ammo to move into).

Or maybe it's because the machismo sets in and they want to prove that they're the smartest guys in the room because "look at the gem I turned up" factor?

Anyway, I just shake my head at the bypassing of some apparently solid picks in the early rounds because it looks like they're rolling the dice on guys they like just as much later on - leading to a lot of "head scratchers".

What are talking about? Randle lasted to the 63rd pick or the last pick in the 2nd round. Jarius Wright went in the middle of the 4th. Vikings would have to give up Josh Robinson (3.03) ,Jarius Wright (4.18) and maybe more to move up for Randle. You have to question why Randle fell so far. At least I know why Wright and Childs fell. IMO, the best way to get Randle was to not trade up for Harrison Smith but to trade down from the 2.03 into the late 2nd.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Seems like more often than not a team that starts out strong quickly fades as the draft progresses. I wonder if this is because teams spend SO much time examining the early round talent (they are a very expensive investment, after all) that they kind of throw darts a bit as the draft progresses.

Take the Vikings and Spielman for example. I can't believe they felt that guys like Jarius Wright in the third round and Greg Childs in the fifth would help as much as a guy like Rueben Randle would in the top of the 2nd (where they surely had enough ammo to move into).

Or maybe it's because the machismo sets in and they want to prove that they're the smartest guys in the room because "look at the gem I turned up" factor?

Anyway, I just shake my head at the bypassing of some apparently solid picks in the early rounds because it looks like they're rolling the dice on guys they like just as much later on - leading to a lot of "head scratchers".

What are talking about? Randle lasted to the 63rd pick or the last pick in the 2nd round. Jarius Wright went in the middle of the 4th. Vikings would have to give up Josh Robinson (3.03) ,Jarius Wright (4.18) and maybe more to move up for Randle. You have to question why Randle fell so far. At least I know why Wright and Childs fell. IMO, the best way to get Randle was to not trade up for Harrison Smith but to trade down from the 2.03 into the late 2nd.

I'm talking that they apparently thought it was better to get some combination like Robinson/Wright than it was to get a Randle/???. On paper, I'm not sure that was very good thinking.Probably not the best example of what I'm trying to say, but it was the first that came to mind. Anyway, I like their first 3 picks okay.

 

[bigmarc27]

I think people on here give too much credit to players they have heard of.

We've never met the players, we've never been to these private workouts, we've never seen how these guys practice, what they're like around teammates, what the teams doctors saw in a physical, etc... Do GM's miss on late players? Of course they do, but that doesn't mean they're not trying. The first rounders are where the crowd and the fans are focused, but generally that's the easiest pick of all.

Think about it in fantasy terms. You've got the 2nd pick overall - sure it'll get talked about a lot, but you're really only deciding among probably 4 or 5 names. When you get down to round 20 though, do you take a chance on a productive guy to fill in if needed, a no namer who played well in preseason, or a guy that showed flashes but is thought of as lazy and might not even make the team? That's where the real "study" comes in and that's also where the guesswork applies.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I don't agree at all.

I'd say teams and scouts do exhaustive work on late round picks. Just because you tend to value guys you've heard of and guys on draftnik hacks board doesn't mean teams arent doing their homework when they go off script.

Yes.NFL teams spend far more time and effort scouting late-round talent than any of us do. The idea that, when you disagree with one of their picks, it's because they didn't spend sufficient time studying seems exactly backwards.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't get it. Are you saying that you HAVE spent a ton of time looking at guys like Josh Robinson and Jarius Wright?

It would be one thing if you were going back and picking out past examples based on performances that they have turned in, but here you're basically saying that you know from the 70 seconds you spent watching those guys that they're not as good as Randle and they obviously didn't come to the same decision because they only spent 7 days looking at them?

They've spent a lot more time looking at those prospects than you did so how can you make the argument that their view of them is less accurate than yours based on time spent looking at them?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I don't get it. Are you saying that you HAVE spent a ton of time looking at guys like Josh Robinson and Jarius Wright?

It would be one thing if you were going back and picking out past examples based on performances that they have turned in, but here you're basically saying that you know from the 70 seconds you spent watching those guys that they're not as good as Randle and they obviously didn't come to the same decision because they only spent 7 days looking at them?

They've spent a lot more time looking at those prospects than you did so how can you make the argument that their view of them is less accurate than yours based on time spent looking at them?

That's really more what I'm getting at - even though I'm not articulating it well at all.I'm not trying to compare them to MY rankings. I'm trying to compare them to the rankings of other GMs. It just seems like some teams are perennially good at getting value in the mid/late rounds and others aren't.

Maybe I'm wrong. Glad to see the discussion on it.

 

[FDC]

They've spent a lot more time looking at those prospects than you did so how can you make the argument that their view of them is less accurate than yours based on time spent looking at them?

Are you sure they spend a TON of time with these guys?IIRC Claiborne said he never even talked to the Cowboys and was shocked they came after him.

 

[Donnybrook]

Seems like more often than not a team that starts out strong quickly fades as the draft progresses. I wonder if this is because teams spend SO much time examining the early round talent (they are a very expensive investment, after all) that they kind of throw darts a bit as the draft progresses.

Take the Vikings and Spielman for example. I can't believe they felt that guys like Jarius Wright in the third round and Greg Childs in the fifth would help as much as a guy like Rueben Randle would in the top of the 2nd (where they surely had enough ammo to move into).

Or maybe it's because the machismo sets in and they want to prove that they're the smartest guys in the room because "look at the gem I turned up" factor?

Anyway, I just shake my head at the bypassing of some apparently solid picks in the early rounds because it looks like they're rolling the dice on guys they like just as much later on - leading to a lot of "head scratchers".

What are talking about? Randle lasted to the 63rd pick or the last pick in the 2nd round. Jarius Wright went in the middle of the 4th. Vikings would have to give up Josh Robinson (3.03) ,Jarius Wright (4.18) and maybe more to move up for Randle. You have to question why Randle fell so far. At least I know why Wright and Childs fell. IMO, the best way to get Randle was to not trade up for Harrison Smith but to trade down from the 2.03 into the late 2nd.

I'm talking that they apparently thought it was better to get some combination like Robinson/Wright than it was to get a Randle/???. On paper, I'm not sure that was very good thinking.

Probably not the best example of what I'm trying to say, but it was the first that came to mind. Anyway, I like their first 3 picks okay.

I disagree. Vikings have a huge holes in their secondary and the need at WR is overblown by the fans and media. I also think that the draftniks have built Randle up to be next Dwayne Bowe and judging from his draft position most of the teams are not convinced he has that type of talent.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I disagree. Vikings have a huge holes in their secondary and the need at WR is overblown by the fans and media. I also think that the draftniks have built Randle up to be next Dwayne Bowe and judging from his draft position most of the teams are not convinced he has that type of talent.

I'm not sure about overblown, but I thought all along they were going to go more TE heavy in the offense this year and may not draft any WR at all.More and more it's starting to sound like I'm seeing something that just isn't there. Oh well.

 

[FavreCo]

I doubt thwey bring in the later round guys for private workouts. But when they do and the guy goes off, then this happens. The Rams apaprently brought in Quick for a workout and were blown away, thus propmting them to take him earlier than thaey would have had they not brouight him in.

GM Les Snead saw Appalachian State WR Brian Quick play in person three times, but the clincher came following Quick's workout last weekend when he caught passes from QBs Kellen Clemens and Tom Brandstater. Snead, coach Jeff Fisher and both QBs looked at each other in the car on the way back to the airport in Boone, N.C. and just said, “Wow.”

Rotoworld speculating that he and Givens are penciled in as the starters too.