Do starts and sits really work?????? (1 Viewer)

[Richc111]

I have been playing fantasy football now for for over 40 years now. Started in 1984. I have constantly have had over the years some of the best teams and I pride my teams on deep rosters. For the past decade or more I have really come to hate all of the talking heads predicting who draft or to start and sit. My wife actually tried FF for a few years and I heard he complain that the only reason she started someone was because a guy on TV told her too. I tell the guys in my league I have been in for the 40 years or so I was going to start a podcast reviewing all of the so called experts and their fantasy football calls. (oh the exact same occurs for betting) What I now call chasing performance is the problem. I started out 0-4 in this league for a combination of reasons but as part of my frustration I decided to put in my line up in weeks in advance. I just check it on Sunday for injuries. I also only pick up players ever 2-3 weeks unless needed to. I am now 4-4. I give credit to not chasing performance. I give you an example how it doesn't work. In another league I have Jonathan Cooper DE Den. He was on my bench for the 1st 3 weeks and he was a top 15 DE. So I started him week 4 and 5 and during those weeks he was now the 63rd ranked DE. So of course I sat him week 6-7 and he was a top 10 DE during those weeks. So long story short, if you ever check all of the "experts" starts and sits which i have on and off they hit about as often as a coin flip. So I am wondering, even knowing that I sometimes read the start and sits during the week and there is still and urge to follow the experts even thought I know they really don't know, which comes to my point of why you play fantasy football. Should you make you own decisions or do most people just take advice from some stranger that really don't have a very good track record anyway. My strategy now which i am doing is just play your best players and don't look at match ups and who is home or away and don't read what the "experts" think. Interested in your thoughts.

 

[Soulfly3]

start your studs?

 

[Max Power]

I'll play matchups for QB or RB tiebreakers but that's about it. Mainly play my better players.

I do fall victim to "projected points" at times. It led me to starting Jeudy over Hutchinson at WR. I knew better too.

 

[Golden Gopher]

I'll glance at them and use it as a tie-breaker if something sticks out that I didn't realize prior. But, yeah, they're mostly a crapshoot, and I would never use them as "gospel" in setting my lineups. Too many factors (scoring, lineups, league size, etc.) that those articles don't/can't take into account.

 

[Jewell]

My strategy now which i am doing is just play your best players and don't look at match ups and who is home or away and don't read what the "experts" think.

I always make the playoffs in both of my fantasy leagues, but I do the exact opposite as you regarding who to start — I always play match-ups instead of “just start your studs”.

And when it comes to analyzing match-ups, I do it myself. I don’t like simply following what some “expert” recommends. To me, fantasy was better when people had to try to figure it out themselves rather than solely relying on what an “expert” advises. That’s not fun nor interesting to me, and at the end of the day fantasy football should be fun.

 

[rockaction]

I have been playing fantasy football now for for over 40 years now. Started in 1984. I have constantly have had over the years some of the best teams and I pride my teams on deep rosters. For the past decade or more I have really come to hate all of the talking heads predicting who draft or to start and sit. My wife actually tried FF for a few years and I heard he complain that the only reason she started someone was because a guy on TV told her too. I tell the guys in my league I have been in for the 40 years or so I was going to start a podcast reviewing all of the so called experts and their fantasy football calls. (oh the exact same occurs for betting) What I now call chasing performance is the problem. I started out 0-4 in this league for a combination of reasons but as part of my frustration I decided to put in my line up in weeks in advance. I just check it on Sunday for injuries. I also only pick up players ever 2-3 weeks unless needed to. I am now 4-4. I give credit to not chasing performance. I give you an example how it doesn't work. In another league I have Jonathan Cooper DE Den. He was on my bench for the 1st 3 weeks and he was a top 15 DE. So I started him week 4 and 5 and during those weeks he was now the 63rd ranked DE. So of course I sat him week 6-7 and he was a top 10 DE during those weeks. So long story short, if you ever check all of the "experts" starts and sits which i have on and off they hit about as often as a coin flip. So I am wondering, even knowing that I sometimes read the start and sits during the week and there is still and urge to follow the experts even thought I know they really don't know, which comes to my point of why you play fantasy football. Should you make you own decisions or do most people just take advice from some stranger that really don't have a very good track record anyway. My strategy now which i am doing is just play your best players and don't look at match ups and who is home or away and don't read what the "experts" think. Interested in your thoughts.

I identified a problem right from the jump. You, my man, are playing IDP. You are going to get wild swings at DE and DL or DT when you play IDP, especially if it is a big play league. DEs are especially tricky because tackles are completely erratic and all over the place.

I listen to a show called the IDP Show. It's pretty good but really instructive when these guys (who have been playing IDP forever) start making macro or generalized comments about how IDP works and the swings you invariably get. Each position, in my estimation, has volatility. I think great DEs just have wild scoring swings and it depends on so many things. Your LBs will vary, but not nearly as much and it's a lot more foreseeable to avoid pitfalls there. The problem is if you're a dynasty player. Linebackers are just fiat currency aside from the rarest few. They're coach and system-dependent. Well, every FF guy is, but it seems RBs and LBs really are coach-dependent in terms of both who is on the team in the first place and then who gets volume; TEs are also notoriously coach-dependent, but it usually manifests in how they're deployed rather than roster ramifications—but volume is very affected for TEs. Back to IDP: DBs you just get a few box safeties to start the year and check their positioning and alignments every week. If you have a CB requirement get somebody who takes a ton of slot snaps, trench snaps, and box snaps. Trench snaps are the most valuable, followed by box and slot, followed by snaps en toto.

 

[BlackCrowes]

where's that shirt?

 

[Richc111]

My strategy now which i am doing is just play your best players and don't look at match ups and who is home or away and don't read what the "experts" think.

I always make the playoffs in both of my fantasy leagues, but I do the exact opposite as you regarding who to start — I always play match-ups instead of “just start your studs”.

And when it comes to analyzing match-ups, I do it myself. I don’t like simply following what some “expert” recommends. To me, fantasy was better when people had to try to figure it out themselves rather than solely relying on what an “expert” advises. That’s not fun nor interesting to me, and, at the end of the day fantasy football should be fun.

I agree I always wondered about these guys that call in or write who should i play. That is why you play FF is to make them picks. You know what makes it hard , compare to some of the guys in the league is having a deep team hurts you. I look at a few teams and they don't have to pick their bench is so thin.

 

[JohnnyU]

where's that shirt?

 

[zamboni]

I know all the fantasy analysts have a job to do, but I hear the Charlie Brown teacher voice when I hear things along the lines of “you should play tight end XYZ because their opponents are giving up the 5th most points to tight ends this year.”

I typically play what I think are my best players and just let fate play out.

 

[BlackCrowes]

I know all the fantasy analysts have a job to do, but I hear the Charlie Brown teacher voice when I hear things along the lines of “you should play tight end XYZ because their opponents are giving up the 5th most points to tight ends this year.”

I typically play what I think are my best players and just let fate play out.

i'm kind of the opposite this year. i'm paying WAY more attention to matchups. Sure its still a crapshoot, but the guy playing the Cowboys gets the nod over a slightly better guy playing against the Texans.

 

[Richc111]

I have been playing fantasy football now for for over 40 years now. Started in 1984. I have constantly have had over the years some of the best teams and I pride my teams on deep rosters. For the past decade or more I have really come to hate all of the talking heads predicting who draft or to start and sit. My wife actually tried FF for a few years and I heard he complain that the only reason she started someone was because a guy on TV told her too. I tell the guys in my league I have been in for the 40 years or so I was going to start a podcast reviewing all of the so called experts and their fantasy football calls. (oh the exact same occurs for betting) What I now call chasing performance is the problem. I started out 0-4 in this league for a combination of reasons but as part of my frustration I decided to put in my line up in weeks in advance. I just check it on Sunday for injuries. I also only pick up players ever 2-3 weeks unless needed to. I am now 4-4. I give credit to not chasing performance. I give you an example how it doesn't work. In another league I have Jonathan Cooper DE Den. He was on my bench for the 1st 3 weeks and he was a top 15 DE. So I started him week 4 and 5 and during those weeks he was now the 63rd ranked DE. So of course I sat him week 6-7 and he was a top 10 DE during those weeks. So long story short, if you ever check all of the "experts" starts and sits which i have on and off they hit about as often as a coin flip. So I am wondering, even knowing that I sometimes read the start and sits during the week and there is still and urge to follow the experts even thought I know they really don't know, which comes to my point of why you play fantasy football. Should you make you own decisions or do most people just take advice from some stranger that really don't have a very good track record anyway. My strategy now which i am doing is just play your best players and don't look at match ups and who is home or away and don't read what the "experts" think. Interested in your thoughts.

I identified a problem right from the jump. You, my man, are playing IDP. You are going to get wild swings at DE and DL or DT when you play IDP, especially if it is a big play league. DEs are especially tricky because tackles are completely erratic and all over the place.

I listen to a show called the IDP Show. It's pretty good but really instructive when these guys (who have been playing IDP forever) start making macro or generalized comments about how IDP works and the swings you invariably get. Each position, in my estimation, has volatility. I think great DEs just have wild scoring swings and it depends on so many things. Your LBs will vary, but not nearly as much and it's a lot more foreseeable to avoid pitfalls there. The problem is if you're a dynasty player. Linebackers are just fiat currency aside from the rarest few. They're coach and system-dependent. Well, every FF guy is, but it seems RBs and LBs really are coach-dependent in terms of both who is on the team in the first place and then who gets volume; TEs are also notoriously coach-dependent, but it usually manifests in how they're deployed rather than roster ramifications—but volume is very affected for TEs. Back to IDP: DBs you just get a few box safeties to start the year and check their positioning and alignments every week. If you have a CB requirement get somebody who takes a ton of slot snaps, trench snaps, and box snaps. Trench snaps are the most valuable, followed by box and slot, followed by snaps en toto.

I have been playing fantasy football now for for over 40 years now. Started in 1984. I have constantly have had over the years some of the best teams and I pride my teams on deep rosters. For the past decade or more I have really come to hate all of the talking heads predicting who draft or to start and sit. My wife actually tried FF for a few years and I heard he complain that the only reason she started someone was because a guy on TV told her too. I tell the guys in my league I have been in for the 40 years or so I was going to start a podcast reviewing all of the so called experts and their fantasy football calls. (oh the exact same occurs for betting) What I now call chasing performance is the problem. I started out 0-4 in this league for a combination of reasons but as part of my frustration I decided to put in my line up in weeks in advance. I just check it on Sunday for injuries. I also only pick up players ever 2-3 weeks unless needed to. I am now 4-4. I give credit to not chasing performance. I give you an example how it doesn't work. In another league I have Jonathan Cooper DE Den. He was on my bench for the 1st 3 weeks and he was a top 15 DE. So I started him week 4 and 5 and during those weeks he was now the 63rd ranked DE. So of course I sat him week 6-7 and he was a top 10 DE during those weeks. So long story short, if you ever check all of the "experts" starts and sits which i have on and off they hit about as often as a coin flip. So I am wondering, even knowing that I sometimes read the start and sits during the week and there is still and urge to follow the experts even thought I know they really don't know, which comes to my point of why you play fantasy football. Should you make you own decisions or do most people just take advice from some stranger that really don't have a very good track record anyway. My strategy now which i am doing is just play your best players and don't look at match ups and who is home or away and don't read what the "experts" think. Interested in your thoughts.

I identified a problem right from the jump. You, my man, are playing IDP. You are going to get wild swings at DE and DL or DT when you play IDP, especially if it is a big play league. DEs are especially tricky because tackles are completely erratic and all over the place.

I listen to a show called the IDP Show. It's pretty good but really instructive when these guys (who have been playing IDP forever) start making macro or generalized comments about how IDP works and the swings you invariably get. Each position, in my estimation, has volatility. I think great DEs just have wild scoring swings and it depends on so many things. Your LBs will vary, but not nearly as much and it's a lot more foreseeable to avoid pitfalls there. The problem is if you're a dynasty player. Linebackers are just fiat currency aside from the rarest few. They're coach and system-dependent. Well, every FF guy is, but it seems RBs and LBs really are coach-dependent in terms of both who is on the team in the first place and then who gets volume; TEs are also notoriously coach-dependent, but it usually manifests in how they're deployed rather than roster ramifications—but volume is very affected for TEs. Back to IDP: DBs you just get a few box safeties to start the year and check their positioning and alignments every week. If you have a CB requirement get somebody who takes a ton of slot snaps, trench snaps, and box snaps. Trench snaps are the most valuable, followed by box and slot, followed by snaps en toto.

Yes I play in both a redraft and dynasty where you keep 100% of of your players. But even so, sticking with IDP with all it's pit falls. I see IDP is where you can make a difference, because it can be harder. In my two league were we have IDP I am in the top of each league for Def points. I read Mr. Norton's eye's of the Guru closely in the beginning of the year. No offense to him but a lot of it even with him is a coin flip. Franklin is a good example. I knew that there was a DC change in Indy but I have taken Franklin as my 1st D player in my redraft league for 3 years now. He is currently 47th ranked LB and in the report he as call "elite tier LB1" My next LB was Cooper GB noted as a rising star and set to become perennial top 10. He is currently rank #30. But now both are on my bench only (actually just cut Franklin and picked up D.White LV. but my other two LB are Brooks Mia and Edmunds Chic which was tagged as "marginal 3rd starter" But that gets back to my point. I understand that are a lot of pitfalls but one of them for me is listening to a 3rd party sometimes to make help decisions. Thank you for your response.

 

[Gally]

I have been playing fantasy football now for for over 40 years now.

Then you know it's 95% luck at this point. Gone are the days when you could out research everyone and win. I started playing in 1985 (you beat me by a year and the first person on this board that I have seen have an earlier start date then me). Back then you could out research other's and gain an advantage. Now you can't. Everyone has the same information pretty easily at their fingertips. Now the weekly blowhards that just spout non-sense can be problematic so now the key is to sift through the garbage and figure out what matters.

Bottom line is that the information is readily available now making this game 95% luck (schedule, injury, etc) and very little to do with skill.

 

[Gally]

I see IDP is where you can make a difference,

This is true for sure. It is a lot more like the early days of FF because the "expert" info is much harder to find. For me, I tend to try and gather all the info I can and then make my own decision. All of the info matters but to what extend is what you have to decide.

 

[eighsse2]

One thing that I really don't get is the weekly piece CBS fantasy puts out called the Cheatsheet. It lists the NFL games for the week in chronological order, and for each side in the game, lists the top 6-ish fantasy-relevant players. It gives each player a rating on a 10-scale of how confident they would be to start that player. Unless I'm just not getting it, I don't understand how that is helpful unless you were to sort the whole bank of players by confidence, rather than sort them by NFL game. Wouldn't you have to go through all the games and find all of your players, memorizing or writing down their ratings, to know which one they would recommend starting?

It'd be like if you had a webpage that lists all the local gas prices, but they're grouped by chain (here are all the 7/11 prices around town ... now here are all the BP prices ... etc.). Just show me the cheapest prices!

 

[Football Jones]

I view start/sit as the final frontier of FF. There's been a lot of ways devised to form a team, but your start/sit decisions can make or break you. I think it's foolish to go with one set strategy ('start your studs'/'play matchups').

I've gotten better over the years. I believe it's important to track your success rate like what MFL does. If you're continuing to make poor start/sit decisions and have a low efficiency rating, you need to make a change. A lot of it is experience, IMO. Knowing your player's tendencies helps, too. Knowing the opposing D and not just their ranking is key. I also think you can develop a feel for making the right call.

It doesn't make a lot of sense to listen to experts unless they know your whole roster. Even then, they likely won't know your team as well as you do. So many things go into it, especially with a deep team, which you pretty much got to have these days.

 

[habsfan]

I can't escape the projections of others and it would be naive to think I'm not affected by them. That said, I set my lineup myself and then I look at expert weekly projections. If they're close, I go with me. If they're not, I'll have a deeper dive to see what I'm missing.

I'm also wary of "lagging" projections that are based on season long projections (aka the "Jerry Jeudy Effect") or biased in some weird way I can't grasp (aka the "Mecole Hardman Effect").

 

[Gatorade]

I only pay close attention to the start/sit opinions when because of injuries/byes I am desperate. Hopefully there is someone on the WW worth grabbing, at least for a week.

 

[Chaka]

I tell the guys in my league I have been in for the 40 years or so I was going to start a podcast reviewing all of the so called experts and their fantasy football calls.

I would love for these jokers in media to be held accountable for their picks every week.

For the first 2.5 years of the weekly WDIS thread I used to tally my recommendations next to a coin toss for comparison. I eventually stopped because it was a PITA to track and I was already investing way too much time in that thread.

On the 1,956 reccos I made over that time, I made the correct call, or pushed 54.9% of the time and the coin toss was correct or pushed 51.1% of the time.

 

[Gally]

It doesn't make a lot of sense to listen to experts unless they know your whole roster. Even then, they likely won't know your team as well as you do. So many things go into it, especially with a deep team, which you pretty much got to have these days.

If the experts are ranking straight based on an order that lists the player they think will score the most and on down the line they don't really need to know your team at all. If that's what they are touting the list to mean.

However, we all know that those lists are really dumb and don't mean anything as that type of prediction really is impossible. Where your roster comes in is figuring out the floor's and ceilings of each player and crafting a lineup that limits the overall team bust weeks while also comparing that to your opponent and whether or not you are an underdog, favorite or toss up. That type of info also should factor in how you craft your starting lineup.

Tie break decisions on players should take that into consideration to some degree. Do I play Jamo and his high ceiling and bottom level floor or Meyers with his moderate floor and very low ceiling? Lineup construction matters for that.

However, in the end none of that actually matters if you just play the guys that score the most each week.

 

[btemp]

Start/sit is arbitrary and most FF people know nothing.

Ignore it unless its related to injury.

Isn't there a column on FF where a staff writer goes over/under on performances? How's that going?

 

[zamboni]

I tell the guys in my league I have been in for the 40 years or so I was going to start a podcast reviewing all of the so called experts and their fantasy football calls.

I would love for these jokers in media to be held accountable for their picks every week.

One of the many things I like about JJ Zacharison is his weekly sleeper podcast, where he first does a self-evaluation of his previous week’s sleeper picks. Few analysts do that.

 

[UncleZen]

It doesn't make a lot of sense to listen to experts unless they know your whole roster. Even then, they likely won't know your team as well as you do. So many things go into it, especially with a deep team, which you pretty much got to have these days.

If the experts are ranking straight based on an order that lists the player they think will score the most and on down the line they don't really need to know your team at all. If that's what they are touting the list to mean.

However, we all know that those lists are really dumb and don't mean anything as that type of prediction really is impossible. Where your roster comes in is figuring out the floor's and ceilings of each player and crafting a lineup that limits the overall team bust weeks while also comparing that to your opponent and whether or not you are an underdog, favorite or toss up. That type of info also should factor in how you craft your starting lineup.

Tie break decisions on players should take that into consideration to some degree. Do I play Jamo and his high ceiling and bottom level floor or Meyers with his moderate floor and very low ceiling? Lineup construction matters for that.

However, in the end none of that actually matters if you just play the guys that score the most each week.

That is my strategy, play the guy that I think will score the most. It's done me well through the years. Luck is such a large factor though so that's why I quit playing for money and only play for fun now.

 

[Football Jones]

It doesn't make a lot of sense to listen to experts unless they know your whole roster. Even then, they likely won't know your team as well as you do. So many things go into it, especially with a deep team, which you pretty much got to have these days.

If the experts are ranking straight based on an order that lists the player they think will score the most and on down the line they don't really need to know your team at all. If that's what they are touting the list to mean.

However, we all know that those lists are really dumb and don't mean anything as that type of prediction really is impossible. Where your roster comes in is figuring out the floor's and ceilings of each player and crafting a lineup that limits the overall team bust weeks while also comparing that to your opponent and whether or not you are an underdog, favorite or toss up. That type of info also should factor in how you craft your starting lineup.

Tie break decisions on players should take that into consideration to some degree. Do I play Jamo and his high ceiling and bottom level floor or Meyers with his moderate floor and very low ceiling? Lineup construction matters for that.

However, in the end none of that actually matters if you just play the guys that score the most each week.

This has been hashed out many times, but no, I don't always go straight by my 'rankings'.

I won a championship starting a WR who I normally would've sat due to the other team's QB's ceiling. His QB scored a lot, but my WR (his QB's hookup) had a big game. I was heavily favored, but the most likely way he could win was to have a monster score from his QB. I've heard guys say never do that. Well, ok...but I did and it worked out.

I actually used to keep track of how many times I'd 'strategize' my lineup as opposed to the times I started somebody due to no strategy. I quit doing it a long time ago, but I was over 50%. I haven't done it very often, though.

 

[Ilov80s]

It is easy to start your studs. Nobody is benching Pickens, Achane or Jacobs. It's more about what to do when your studs aren's studs anymore. See Brian Thomas, Kenneth Walker, DJ Moore. You get to a point pretty quickly, especially at WR, where there isn't much seperating large tiers of players so you can't just make a blanket statement like always start Jamesom Willams over Romeo Doubs or vice versa.

 

[massraider]

If deciding between two guys that are ranked similar that week (your ranks or someone else's) there's always another tie breaker available, IMO.

Someone on the road on Thursday loses a tiebreaker. Someone at home with a high over/under wins. WR injured on same team, maybe my guy gets more targets.

If it's a coin flip, I find it hard to believe an owner can't come up with ONE reason to make a decision. And I'd rather it be my decision. It's more fun that way, rather than just go with the rankings of some jamoke who gave himself a nickname

 

[Grahamburn]

Dak vs. Bo Nix just last week is a perfect example of can’t always just start your studs. My opponent had both. There are matchups to exploit/avoid @Ministry of Pain right?!

 

[Truebluey]

It's best to remember that we enjoy FF for fun and camaraderie. The "outcome" is largely governed by the bounce of the ball and the twist of the knee - fate (or "luck", if you prefer).