Do you subconsciencely downgrade players... (1 Viewer)

[Weiner Dog]

When drafting and/or ranking dynasty IDP players, do you downgrade a player if they were originally not a high draft pick?? For example, guys like Antonio Pierce, Gary Brackett, Lemar Marshall, Danny Clark, Cato June, Robert Mathis, Aaron Kampman, Bert Berry, Gibral Wilson, Kerry Rhodes, Erik Coleman, etc were all later-round picks or free agent acquisitions.

I'll be the first to admit it...

...I'm a downgrader.

Don't get me wrong...guys like London Fletcher, Donnie Edwards, Andra Davis, Rodney Harrison, etc were all late picks (or undrafted FA's). They are proven players who have been nearly locks for solid numbers when healthy. It's the younger players, unfortunately, who scare the jeebers out of me. For the life of me, I cannot see Brackett starting in the NFL in two years. Same goes with Danny Clark. I could also see either Rhodes or Coleman in NY get bumped also.

Why am I writing this?? Well...it blows my mind people would rank players like Brackett over much more talented players like Ernie Sims, Kawika Mitchell, Chad Greenway, Dan Morgan, Ian Gold, etc. The same holds true with Kampman being ranked over superior talents like Mario Williams, Kevin Williams, Justin Smith, etc.

I cannot imagine an owner in any IDP league trading Mario Williams straight-up for Aaron Kampman and thinking he/she just landed a dynasty upgrade.

 

[Pick]

TSN does a nice job of tiering players before the draft. Puts each player in the round their talent matches. Obviously, situation plays a huge role post-draft. But I think it's good to remember the talent level of guys BEFORE the draft. Seems to be forgotten too quickly.

As for trading blue-chip talent for take-a-chance guys, that's all up to you. I think most of those blue-chip IDPers are prolly at max value before they even play a snap. And those late-round guys are at their lowest value (most times for good reason). But definitely some savvy trades to be made if you feel real good about a late-rounder.

 

[Jene Bramel]

When drafting and/or ranking dynasty IDP players, do you downgrade a player if they were originally not a high draft pick?? For example, guys like Antonio Pierce, Gary Brackett, Lemar Marshall, Danny Clark, Cato June, Robert Mathis, Aaron Kampman, Bert Berry, Gibral Wilson, Kerry Rhodes, Erik Coleman, etc were all later-round picks or free agent acquisitions.

I'll be the first to admit it...

...I'm a downgrader.

Don't get me wrong...guys like London Fletcher, Donnie Edwards, Andra Davis, Rodney Harrison, etc were all late picks (or undrafted FA's). They are proven players who have been nearly locks for solid numbers when healthy. It's the younger players, unfortunately, who scare the jeebers out of me. For the life of me, I cannot see Brackett starting in the NFL in two years. Same goes with Danny Clark. I could also see either Rhodes or Coleman in NY get bumped also.

Why am I writing this?? Well...it blows my mind people would rank players like Brackett over much more talented players like Ernie Sims, Kawika Mitchell, Chad Greenway, Dan Morgan, Ian Gold, etc. The same holds true with Kampman being ranked over superior talents like Mario Williams, Kevin Williams, Justin Smith, etc.

I cannot imagine an owner in any IDP league trading Mario Williams straight-up for Aaron Kampman and thinking he/she just landed a dynasty upgrade.

Different strokes for different folks.

I don't put too much extra value on where a player is drafted, unless a team trades up to get a guy with skill (even if felt a reach) at a position of need. Rocky McIntosh fits that bill this year, Lofa Tatupu last season. I rank by talent and opportunity. Plenty of relatively weak talent lands in solid opportunity - my poster boy has always been Ronald McKinnon. Sometimes, opportunity is more than enough to make a DJ Williams much less valuable than a Danny Clark in single year fantasy terms. In that vein, I've got Dawan Landry and Omar Gaither and Eric Henderson on the short list of late rounders/CFAs to watch closely during the season.

I think you're being a little hard on Brackett and Kampman, who do well in their particular situations. But your point is well taken. With regard to the Pierces, Trotter, Wilsons, Mathises of the world, sometimes the scouts are wrong or the scheme hides a major deficiency. Sometimes they aren't. I'll usually defer to the coaching staff comments about a given player or RFA tenders or whether the team chooses to draft an up-and-comer at the same position to mold my thoughts on those guys.

The dynasty issue, though, is a tricky one. I tend to side with WD in most cases in that I'll always rank the guys with the biggest upside/talent higher in their respective tier than the slow-and-steady consistent tortoises. I'll hold them a little longer on my roster and I'm likely to overvalue them (in both directions) in trade. Plenty of those dudes - except Thomas Davis - will never get over the hump. See my sig for details. But, if I'm on the doorstep on a championship, I've no problem dumping potential for a tortoise for the short-term upgrade and lineup boost.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I actually go back to the high school talent rankings to try to find sleepers. You can find some guys that were top 10, 5 star players in high school that may have just been average in college. Now maybe it's because they just don't have the desire to get better. But maybe they were used wrong in college or maybe they can turn it on again when they get drafted on the 2nd day or are a UDFA.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

excellent thread topic for discussion, WD...

i think you need both kinds of players on your roster to be most successful...

the high pedigree dudes like vilma you need to burn a high pick for in their initial draft (relatively high second on our case)...

guys like gibril wilson & kerry rhodes can be found on waiver wire before they break out...

your question was more about should you hang on to some of the UFA types, or move them while value is high...

jene nailed it... so many of our decisions are driven by the two key components in the equation - talent + opportunity = success...

so it may be better to have lemar marshall for now than DJ williams, though bloom would argue that if you are patient, DJ will again be a monster & is too talented to be held down for long... you may have to be patient, though...

one thing is i definitely watch the tenuous guys more closely... i was vigilant for any news out of WAS to detect early signs & indications where marshall stood, so we could respond & adjust to bad news, make contingency plans...

in general, conventional thinking is the higher drafted players represent a bigger investment in money, plus front office, coaching staff & scouts liked a guy in the first place to draft him high, so he is likely to be put in position to succeed... you still have to look for warning signs, though (work ethic like mike williams, injury prone like cie grant & teddy lehman)...

there is so much turnover among league coaches that sometimes the guys that drafted a player may no longer be their, so you can't always count on that good will... also, the bottom line is to win & there is lots of pressure to win now... coaches will use the players that best position them to win, regardless of draft status... if they play too many players just because they drafted them if they lack talent, they could lose their job...

a concern with late guys is, maybe they aren't really that talented... but because scouting is inexact science, good players do fall, of which you cited plenty... though it may not be high percentage play, we need to be alert to possibility (sometimes we make our own luck by being prepared & EXPECTING to find sleepers & hidden gems )...

in bigger leagues, you add guys & hope... for every kerry rhodes there may be 5-10 misses, but if you keep churning, you can add 1-2 guys like that a year...

on the subject of do you flip them before they turn into pumpkins... i did trade brackett in off season, but i got three mid round draft picks that i liked a lot... brackett may not be a supreme talent, & maybe isn't starter in 2-3 years... another perspective is he could get better now that he has more reps & experience & if he stays healthy could be perennial top 20 IDP?

we traded gibril wilson two years ago... he looked like the real deal but i thought risky as he was an undersized hard hitter who had a slow to heal neck injury & only played half season... we moved him at what we thought might be peak value... as it turned out he is probably worth more... but we packaged him with jerametrius butler for will witherspoon, who is arguably also worth more, so at least we got good value...

* i agree i like to go back to prep background to get better sense of arc & trajectory of a prospect's career...

 

[Jene Bramel]

I actually go back to the high school talent rankings to try to find sleepers. You can find some guys that were top 10, 5 star players in high school that may have just been average in college. Now maybe it's because they just don't have the desire to get better. But maybe they were used wrong in college or maybe they can turn it on again when they get drafted on the 2nd day or are a UDFA.

* i agree i like to go back to prep background to get better sense of arc & trajectory of a prospect's career...

Can you guys give a couple of examples of late round picks/CFAs who weren't hyped as IDP prospects before/during/after the NFL Draft but that you strongly felt would succeed and did?

 

[Bob_Magaw]

I actually go back to the high school talent rankings to try to find sleepers. You can find some guys that were top 10, 5 star players in high school that may have just been average in college. Now maybe it's because they just don't have the desire to get better. But maybe they were used wrong in college or maybe they can turn it on again when they get drafted on the 2nd day or are a UDFA.

* i agree i like to go back to prep background to get better sense of arc & trajectory of a prospect's career...

Can you guys give a couple of examples of late round picks/CFAs who weren't hyped as IDP prospects before/during/after the NFL Draft but that you strongly felt would succeed and did?

i can't claim to say i thought gibril wilson or kerry rhodes would be great players... but by training camp & early rookie season they were on my radar, so i grabbed them in case they surprised...i'll have to think about your question some more, to see if any specific examples come to mind... i know we got briggs early when he went undrafted... that was one of best success stories, as we parlayed into vilma...

i feel strongly this season that wroten could be star in leagues with mandatory start DT (goes undrafted in many leagues)... anthony smith could be a sleeper (hope was top 15 DB in some leagues last year from PIT FS)... but ryan clark could start for year or two so maybe he doesn't need to be rostered...

i had my eye on ike taylor for a year but waited too long to pounce on him & barry 5 scooped him in game breakers league...

we got lemar marshall after his year as WLB & before he was official MLB... it looks like he will be MLB second year in a row... though undersized he held up well, brings athleticism to the table & they like his football smarts...

 

[redman]

I look more closely at draft grades than draft position, but I do regard a highly graded player drafted "late" (however that's defined) as a red flag that warrants skepticism and/or further research.

There IS after all a connection with the level of a team's investment in a player and that player's playing time, at least in the short term.

 

[Jene Bramel]

i can't claim to say i thought gibril wilson or kerry rhodes would be great players... but by training camp & early rookie season they were on my radar, so i grabbed them in case they surprised...

i'll have to think about your question some more, to see if any specific examples come to mind... i know we got briggs early when he went undrafted... that was one of best success stories, as we parlayed into vilma...

i feel strongly this season that wroten could be star in leagues with mandatory start DT (goes undrafted in many leagues)... anthony smith could be a sleeper (hope was top 15 DB in some leagues last year from PIT FS)... but ryan clark could start for year or two so maybe he doesn't need to be rostered...

i had my eye on ike taylor for a year but waited too long to pounce on him & barry 5 scooped him in game breakers league...

we got lemar marshall after his year as WLB & before he was official MLB... it looks like he will be MLB second year in a row... though undersized he held up well, brings athleticism to the table & they like his football smarts...

Are you saying you liked Briggs and/or Marshall because of high school background and thought they'd do well despite their draft position or because you liked their situations and heard good things about their progress in camps?Taylor was a walk-on tailback in college so he doesn't apply. And Wroten was hyped as a first rounder before that drug rumor.

I've not thought of pursuing prep background as a help in my scouting process and I can't think of a situation it would help me. But I like the thought and am curious to see an example.

 

[Weiner Dog]

I would assume nearly every NFL player was All-Everything in High School, right?? And if they were not All-Everything in football, they were probably All-Everything in basketball and/or baseball (...and soccer, for you kickers out there).

As BM has noted, the true gold mine exists when a "no-name" guy like Briggs can be acquired for nothing and then turned into "for sure" guy like Vilma years later. This is truly the fruits of the fantasy football labor. I do have to question, however, how many roster spots or how much salary cap is wasted on taking chances on lower-talented players?? As everyone knows, for every Gibril Wilson, there are many many more guys like Glenn Earl, Terrence Holt, Todd Johnson, Jermaine Phillips, Mel Mitchell, Marques Anderson and Coy Wire who have held a starting job for a brief moment and fizzled soon thereafter.

I, for one, would much rather hang onto guys like EJ Henderson, DJ Williams, Boss Bailey's of the FF world and hope they "finally" live up to their billings, as opposed to cutting them and taking chances on guys like Brandon Chillar, Colby Bockwoldt, and the likes.

 

[coolnerd]

excellent thread

I may organize my thoughts contribute at some point.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I actually go back to the high school talent rankings to try to find sleepers. You can find some guys that were top 10, 5 star players in high school that may have just been average in college. Now maybe it's because they just don't have the desire to get better. But maybe they were used wrong in college or maybe they can turn it on again when they get drafted on the 2nd day or are a UDFA.

* i agree i like to go back to prep background to get better sense of arc & trajectory of a prospect's career...

Can you guys give a couple of examples of late round picks/CFAs who weren't hyped as IDP prospects before/during/after the NFL Draft but that you strongly felt would succeed and did?

I've really just started doing it this year because the data I use on the internet (Rivals.com and Scout.com rankings) is only available back through 2002. So some of the players drafted this year would have been in that high school class. Several guys who were highly ranked in HS but were not as highly ranked in this year's draft class (with good reason usually) are Reggie McNeal, Leon Washington (as a CB), Gerald Riggs, Demetrius Summers, David Thomas, Jason Avant, Devin Aromashodu, and Ben Obomanu. Just another little bit of the puzzle if you find guys about equal after assessing other things. Unfortunately, I've only been tracking offensive players. But just something to keep in mind that maybe one or more of these guys who underperformed in college may get their act together with the right coaching and lack of academic "distractions".

 

[ork1]

Hi - guess in my experience - The Defensive Linemen usually take a year or two to develop - along with a good opportunity. They're usually a step slower than the game and also are going against high octane Offensive Linemen. The LB's and DB's have a big jump on the DL because usually someone along side of them is being double teamed or even triple teamed. Was able to get Hawk in some early season trades because of his slow start. Also Huff and Witmer had similar starts last season. Ryans in a good opportunity saw lots of playing time! c/ork

 

[Biabreakable]

Nice thread. I did not see this one before.

I do consciously give more value to players drafted higher by NFL teams. Especially players I read about prior to NFL draft that stick out as being talented.

Then I question why a player pre-NFL draft was not drafted higher when that happens. I am still willing to pick a player like that up.

As for the guys who come out of nowhere and are productive I value those as well. I just assume that everyone messed up in thier evaluation of these guys. If they are productive when given the opportunity I see no reason why the team will not keep using them.

Look at John Randle. He was one of the best pass rushing DTs I have ever seen. He wasn't even drafted and he had a great career for the Vikings. No reason to downgrade a player like that just because they were an unknown.

Highly regarded players bust at the NFL level sometimes. I am willing to have some amount of paitence with them but at some point one has to just realise they are not going to pan out. Sometimes they do later on in thier careers but it isn't doing you any good to keep wasting roster space waiting for that to happen later on down the road.

 

[Spike]

Um, if it was subconsciously, how would we know it?

 

[Weiner Dog]

When drafting and/or ranking dynasty IDP players, do you downgrade a player if they were originally not a high draft pick?? For example, guys like Antonio Pierce, Gary Brackett, Lemar Marshall, Danny Clark, Cato June, Robert Mathis, Aaron Kampman, Bert Berry, Gibral Wilson, Kerry Rhodes, Erik Coleman, etc were all later-round picks or free agent acquisitions.

I'll be the first to admit it...

...I'm a downgrader.

Don't get me wrong...guys like London Fletcher, Donnie Edwards, Andra Davis, Rodney Harrison, etc were all late picks (or undrafted FA's). They are proven players who have been nearly locks for solid numbers when healthy. It's the younger players, unfortunately, who scare the jeebers out of me. For the life of me, I cannot see Brackett starting in the NFL in two years. Same goes with Danny Clark. I could also see either Rhodes or Coleman in NY get bumped also.

Why am I writing this?? Well...it blows my mind people would rank players like Brackett over much more talented players like Ernie Sims, Kawika Mitchell, Chad Greenway, Dan Morgan, Ian Gold, etc. The same holds true with Kampman being ranked over superior talents like Mario Williams, Kevin Williams, Justin Smith, etc.

I cannot imagine an owner in any IDP league trading Mario Williams straight-up for Aaron Kampman and thinking he/she just landed a dynasty upgrade.

I screwed the pooch on a few calls (Kampman & Rhodes), but Danny Clark did not start last year, while there were threats of a Brackett benching during the season.With that being said, I still would not trade Super Mario straight-up for Kampman. Hey...I'm stubborn.

This year, the list of possible over-achieving / late-round draftees could include:

Bart Scott

Cato June (assuming he leaves the Cover-2 of IND)

Scott Fujita

Brandon Moore

Shane Shanle

Mark Anderson

Robert Geathers

Bobby McCray

Kevin Kaesviharn

Jermaine Phillips

 

[Biabreakable]

The "threat" of Brackett being benched was totaly erronious.

Come on now.

Watch Brackett play today and tell me if you think he will get benched later on down the road.

As far as not being willing to trade Mario for Kampman yeah you are stubborn. But Kampman owners probobly wouldn't be willing anyways so no biggie. It is entirely possible that Kampmans sacks this year will never be matched again but the guy is a solid tackler and that is worth a lot by itself.

ETA- IDP success and NFL talent are not always the same thing. Lesser talents are successful in the box score because of scheme and situation all the time. What some defenders bring to thier teams success does not always translate into box score numbers.

 

[Weiner Dog]

The "threat" of Brackett being benched was totaly erronious. Come on now.Watch Brackett play today and tell me if you think he will get benched later on down the road.

Watch him play?!?! Brackett is very solid in pass coverge, but he flat-out blows against the run. He's undersized and can't stuff the run. The Colts were 30 rushing yards/game worse than the 31st-ranked D. They were dead last by a country mile. To make matters worse, the Colts were dead-last in rushing allowed despite other teams playing most games from behind.

 

[Rovers]

As for the thread starter, I am guilty. The only reason I was on Rhodes like white on rice is because I know the Jets as well as anyone outside the organization. Being able to attend training camp is something that there is no replacement for, period. Even the beat writers are far behind anyone with any football accumen at all is, after watching training camp. I am always amazed at how little these beat reporters, who get paid, fail to see the hand writing on the wall when it comes to players that weren't drafted very high and what their role will be come the start of the season. This is why I was down on Coleman too. Miller as a CB as well.

What I will do however, is read as much as I can. Gaither went undrafted in one of my dynasty leagues, and I got him as a FA very cheaply. I am also beginning to watch which teams seem to be able to find that diamond in the late rounds. Some teams are very good at it, and I tend to watch those teams more closely. I drafted TE Dave Thomas (NE) for that very reason. E Smith on the Jets was a decent gamble. I look for DB's that Herman Edwards drafts late. I tend to shy away from any Miami late draft picks... their track record is pitiful. Pittsburgh has done well with late round picks, but with Cowher gone now, hard to predict.

 

[Rozelle]

Nah ... I dont put too much stock in where a player is drafted, espcially when it comes to corners. The CB's who are a good fit for cover-2 are generally not your hyped up guys anyway and are drafted 2nd, 3rd round and even on day 2.

It seems like teams get so caught up in the measurables, the good football players who lack the great measurables slide. If I'm high on a guy, it doesn't matter where he is drafted. Actually I hope they slide so I can get them later in my draft. .