Dodds' "Eliminate the Suck" (1 Viewer)

[sdyarbrough]

David Dodds, your recent article 'Eliminate the Suck' hits a strong chord with me. I remember this article last year, but I ignored your advice and took Steven Jackson anyway. Predictably, I ended my season one and done. I'll take your advice a bit more seriously this year.

This year's version comes with a cool color coded table with descriptions as to what each color means... but what does cyan(light blue-green) signify? Knowshon, Ochocinco, Crabtree, C Benson, Vernon Davis and on down the list... what do these guys have in common? Looks like guys I'd want, but why separate them from the rest of the green/light greens?

Scott

 

[ConstruxBoy]

At the bottom it says that Light Green are players not affected by any of the rules.

 

[David Dodds]

David Dodds, your recent article 'Eliminate the Suck' hits a strong chord with me. I remember this article last year, but I ignored your advice and took Steven Jackson anyway. Predictably, I ended my season one and done. I'll take your advice a bit more seriously this year.This year's version comes with a cool color coded table with descriptions as to what each color means... but what does cyan(light blue-green) signify? Knowshon, Ochocinco, Crabtree, C Benson, Vernon Davis and on down the list... what do these guys have in common? Looks like guys I'd want, but why separate them from the rest of the green/light greens?Scott

It is suppose to be light green (I think I am going to rename it). It's offenses that are not in the top 8 and not in the bottom 8 that have favorable starting (weeks 1-5) and ending (weeks 14-16) matchups. These guys are super safe to me too (and why they are light green).

 

[AcerFC]

I think it is an interesting take but how can you say avoid guys like Charles and the Carolina backs all together. I have not done the research but I am sure that players produce on bad teams. These guys did it last year. I understand saying be careful but avoid them all together seems too strict

I have no idea if this is paid content but figured it was OK since you are talking about it

 

[Rovers]

Interesting stuff. I need more time to digest it. I saw some players in red that I would still draft, but not at their ADP.

I would suggest just omitting the defenses however. The Jets schedule is tough for the offense, but for the defense, not so much, yet they are in red. I'd agree pretty much all the Jets O players should be in red, but not the D.

 

[Marked]

I think it is an interesting take but how can you say avoid guys like Charles and the Carolina backs all together. I have not done the research but I am sure that players produce on bad teams. These guys did it last year. I understand saying be careful but avoid them all together seems too strictI have no idea if this is paid content but figured it was OK since you are talking about it

It's only by the quirk that Charles is #21 on the list and does not qualify under rule 8 as top 20 exempt. If you tweaked the rule to top 25, then he would be GREEN. If you fiddle with it to say top 30 then DWill and SSmith, voila become GREEN too! Sort of.Shouldn't MJD be YELLOW under rule 8? JAC is listed in rule 4 (bad starting matchup). Same for RWhite (ATL).

 

[gandalas]

Interesting stuff. I need more time to digest it. I saw some players in red that I would still draft, but not at their ADP. I would suggest just omitting the defenses however. The Jets schedule is tough for the offense, but for the defense, not so much, yet they are in red. I'd agree pretty much all the Jets O players should be in red, but not the D.

I think for the defenses, he had a special note that said all defenses that you would have to take before a certain round he would avoid...that could be the reason?

 

[Rovers]

Interesting stuff. I need more time to digest it. I saw some players in red that I would still draft, but not at their ADP. I would suggest just omitting the defenses however. The Jets schedule is tough for the offense, but for the defense, not so much, yet they are in red. I'd agree pretty much all the Jets O players should be in red, but not the D.

I think for the defenses, he had a special note that said all defenses that you would have to take before a certain round he would avoid...that could be the reason?

I didn't see that. I saw one comment where he said to cross off all but the top 12 kickers and defenses (presuming a 12 team league that allows for transactions), so by default, the Jets D should not be in red. I think it is an interesting guide, but like I find with all number crunching based tools, it has it's faults. I would be happy with S Greene as RB2 at 5.04 in a 12 team draft, (which is his ADP as per the article) even though he is listed in red. Putting aside his durability questions, he is in RED as are all Jets based soley on the early and late season matchups. This doesn't take into account that the Jets are likely to once again be at the top of the NFL's rushing offense list. It's the Jets' offensive strength against another team's defensive strength. I don't think it's a lock that Greene would suck in such a matchup. If I could get Greene at 5.04, I would likely have a very good RB1 already with the 1.04, maybe 2 real quality WR's and either a top TE or QB. I would look to handcuff Tomlinson later. I'd love to start a draft like that, despite SoS issues or even that the Jets don't score a lot. So, I disagree with both the Jets defense and Greene being in red. If Greene stays healthy, he's almost sure to be around RB10 I believe. The primary running back on a team that led the NFL in rush uards last year. Now, as far as Jets WR's and Sanchez, yes, I agree with the RED. The Jets' offensive weakness against other teams' defensive strengths. Strength against strenth doesn't scare me so much. Weakness against strength does.

 

[Captain Hook]

NO way that Shonn Greene last to 5.04 when people are drafting for money in August and September

 

[Rovers]

NO way that Shonn Greene last to 5.04 when people are drafting for money in August and September

Moot point as it relates to the article. The problem with the article is that it doesn't take into account Greene's ADP (or any other player in RED) and that the Jets' offensive stregnth is the running game. If it were tweaked some more, those things might (should) remove Greene from RED. Now, Dodds obviously has Greene ranked low enough so he doesn't get a "get out of the RED free" card based on his ranking as an RB. That may be based on the same concern I have about Greene, will he stay healthy?

 

[Ray Finkle]

David,

I realize that the eight worst offenses were calculated looking at projections based off PPR scoring. Does this mean that you feel these teams will also be the bottom eight in PPG?

 

[sgtrobo]

wtf?

how have i not seen this?

 

[Gr00vus]

Hey DD,

Are the considerations that went into this (awesome as always) article reflected in your projections/rankings? I'm going to be a very lazy subscriber/FF participant this year and am probably just going to lean on mostly unadjusted rankings in the draft/projections dominator, and would probably use yours or weight yours the highest if your numbers reflect the info in your articles.

Thanks!