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Eliminating the suck SP version 2021 (1 Viewer)

Biabreakable

Footballguy
We were discussing this in the do not draft thread about David Dodds yearly articles that go through ADP and identifies players from each round that you want to avoid at that price point, with hopefully some reasoning to support that.

Finding reliable ADP recently has been challenging for me, but what about just using MFL redraft data for that? If someone has a better suggestion for ADP than this please let me know. At least these are real drafts. Those mock drafts like fantasy pros are GIGO and way too far off from real drafts. That does more harm than good.

I will be ordering this based on a 12 team league. So 12 players for each round. Players bolded are those that I want to avoid at current price. Player highlighted in green are players who I think present upside value at their draft position.

Round one

1    McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB     
2    Cook, Dalvin MIN RB         
3    Kamara, Alvin NOS RB         
4    Henry, Derrick TEN RB         
5    Barkley, Saquon NYG RB    
6    Taylor, Jonathan IND RB     
7    Kelce, Travis KCC TE         
8    Hill, Tyreek KCC WR         
9    Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB         
10    Chubb, Nick CLE RB         
11    Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB    
12    Adams, Davante GBP WR

While I think these 12 players are all guys I would like to have and there isn't much suck in round one, I would say Mahomes is a reach going this high in start one QB leagues

Round two

13    Jones, Aaron GBP RB         
14    Diggs, Stefon BUF WR         
15    Akers, Cam LAR RB         
16    Ekeler, Austin LAC RB         
17    Allen, Josh BUF QB         
18    Metcalf, DK SEA WR         
19    Hopkins, DeAndre ARI WR         
20    Harris, Najee PIT RB         
21    Ridley, Calvin ATL WR    
22    Waller, Darren LVR TE         
23    Jefferson, Justin MIN WR         
24    Mixon, Joe CIN RB

I dont think Akers has done enough to justify this high of draft position. There are RB being selected after this round that I would prefer to have over him. Honestly I don't understand why Akers is going this high. I have been trying to figure that out all offseason. His sample size of good performance was small and it wasn't really that good either, just a lot of volume.

Josh Allen is a great QB but again like Mahomes I think he is being drafted too high in start one QB leagues. Where Allen is going is about where I think Mahomes should be if you are that bullish about him. Allen should likely last at least to round 3 if not later even as a top 5 QB.

I like Joe Mixon and if he is healthy he could have a great season. However its always something with Mixon and so I would say he is a risk going this early.

Round three

25    Kittle, George SFO TE         
26    Brown, A.J. TEN WR    
27    Gibson, Antonio WAS RB         
28    Edwards-Helaire, Clyde KCC RB         
29    Murray, Kyler ARI QB         
30    Jackson, Lamar BAL QB         
31    Swift, D'Andre DET RB         
32    Thomas, Michael NOS WR         
33    Dobbins, J.K. BAL RB         
34    Allen, Keenan LAC WR         
35    Prescott, Dak DAL QB    
36    Sanders, Miles PHI RB

I really like most of the players going in this range. I have some uncertainty about how Mike Thomas will perform without Brees. People have pointed out to me the numbers he put up with Hill and maybe Winston is better for MT than Hill is. I am not feeling warm and fuzzy about this though and so Thomas is a player I am trying to avoid this season. 

Miles Sanders is likely fine at this draft position but I am not sure if the Eagles will be very good on offense and possible time share for Sanders has me avoiding him at this price point.

Round four

37    Pitts, Kyle ATL TE         
38    Robinson, Allen CHI WR         
39    McLaurin, Terry WAS WR         
40    Montgomery, David CHI RB     
41    Lamb, CeeDee DAL WR         
42    Jacobs, Josh LVR RB         
43    Herbert, Justin LAC QB         
44    Godwin, Chris TBB WR         
45    Carson, Chris SEA RB         
46    Wilson, Russell SEA QB     
47    Evans, Mike TBB WR         
48    Cooper, Amari DAL WR

Pitts is being drafted higher than this in dynasty formats. Its a bit out of hand. He might be fine to take at pick 37 but he is a rookie TE and that is rarely ever a good thing. So I think he is still an avoid at this price.

I considered highlighting Montgomery as a value at this price as I would take him before I took Miles Sanders for example, but I am concerned about Tarik Cohen and also Fields being a running QB so maybe not looking to dump off to the RB as much. So I won't say he is a value here because of that downside. 

I think CeeDee Lamb might be a top 12 WR this season so yeah a value at this price point in my view.

Round five

49    Jones, Julio TEN WR     
50    Moore, D.J. CAR WR
51    Andrews, Mark BAL TE         
52    Chase, Ja'Marr CIN WR         
53    Hockenson, T.J. DET TE         
54    Woods, Robert LAR WR         
55    Gaskin, Myles MIA RB         
56    Etienne, Travis JAC RB         
57    Thielen, Adam MIN WR         
58    Hunt, Kareem CLE RB         
59    Johnson, Diontae PIT WR         
60    Lockett, Tyler SEA WR

I may be just too ignorant about Myles Gaskin to value him properly. He stands out as someone I would not draft at this price point  Hunt put up some good numbers with Chubb out for several games last year. He seems to be going to high considering he is a back up.

I think Chase and ETN will outperform this draft position.

Round six

61    Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB         
62    Williams, Javonte DEN RB         
63    Kupp, Cooper LAR WR         
64    Aiyuk, Brandon SFO WR    
65    Burrow, Joe CIN QB    
66    Davis, Mike ATL RB         
67    Hurts, Jalen PHI QB    

69    Golladay, Kenny NYG WR         
70    Edmonds, Chase ARI RB         
71    Tannehill, Ryan TEN QB         
72    Robinson, James JAC RB

The first IDP player went at pick 68 which I consider to be a signal that the top pool of offensive talent has been exhausted by this point, otherwise people wouldnt be taking top LB which are similar to WR twos in fantasy.

Hurts stands out as not belonging in the same group as Burrow or Rodgers in my opinion.

I think Mike Davis presents value at this price point. I almost highlighted Javonte WIlliams for this as well, but I expect Gordon to hold him off for a good chunk of the year.

Round seven

73    Higgins, Tee CIN WR         

75    Stafford, Matthew LAR QB     
76    Beckham, Odell CLE WR    
77    Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR         
78    Brady, Tom TBB QB    
79    Claypool, Chase PIT WR         
80    Sutton, Courtland DEN WR    

82    Goedert, Dallas PHI TE         
83    Chark, D.J. JAC WR         
84    Sermon, Trey SFO RB

Some more defensive players slotting in here. I don't really believe in Chark so he stands out as the suck here although Im not really excited about any of these players besides Higgins and Beckham.

Round eight

85    Smith, DeVonta PHI WR         
86    Gordon, Melvin DEN RB         
87    Fant, Noah DEN TE         
88    Mostert, Raheem SFO RB    
89    Lawrence, Trevor JAC QB         
90    Jeudy, Jerry DEN WR         

92    Fournette, Leonard TBB RB         
93    Samuel, Deebo SFO WR         
94    Carter, Michael NYJ RB         
95    Thomas, Logan WAS TE         
96    Cooks, Brandin HOU WR

I think Fournettes career is pretty close to being over and I won't be drafting him. Not sure if I have ever drafted him in any legue ever though.

I love Smith and I wanted to highlight him as a value at this draft position, but Hurts does worry me. So I didn't.

Round nine

97    Boyd, Tyler CIN WR         
98    Jones, Ronald TBB RB         
99    Gesicki, Mike MIA TE         
100    Anderson, Robby CAR WR
101    Harris, Damien NEP RB         

105    Waddle, Jaylen MIA WR         
106    Mayfield, Baker CLE QB     

There were almost as many IDP picks in this round as offensive players, which tells me that the pool of talent really has dried up by this point.

I think there are a lot of values in Boyd, Gesicki, Anderson and Harris here. I would take them ahead of some of the round seven and eight guys but I am not specifically targeting any of them either.

Round ten

109    Ryan, Matt ATL QB         
110    Shenault, Laviska JAC WR         
111    Landry, Jarvis CLE WR         
112    Cousins, Kirk MIN QB         
113    Johnson, David HOU RB         
114    Tonyan, Robert GBP TE         
115    Samuel, Curtis WAS WR    
116    Engram, Evan NYG TE         
117    Lance, Trey SFO QB         
118    Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB         
119    Dillon, AJ GBP RB         
120    Fields, Justin CHI QB

I am not a fan of LS. So with him and Chark as avoids I am likely looking at trying to pick up Marvin Jones much later.

Anyhow there is a start. I am curious what you all think and who specifically you think we should be avoiding at their current draft position?

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Good stuff.

If the value plays are green, perhaps you can make the avoids red/orange instead of just bold.

"Almost values" could be a light green.
Good suggestion.

The main reason I did this was that I was hoping others would share their thoughts on this, even just specific players or certain rounds. I know what I think about this and kind of tired of my own opinions about it.

I feel like I am in too good of a mood right now to be more critical and really focus on the suck or pitfalls with some of these players. I guess that is my attitude in general. I focus more on what a player can do than what they can't do. But I will try to revisit this later on with more of a stink eye approach to it.

I can't replace David Dodds. None of us can. But I figured no sense in missing this when I can do something about it.

 

Riffraff

Footballguy
Avoid the suck... (not that the players suck, just avoiding the pitfalls as best we can).

R1     
5    Barkley, Saquon NYG RB    - May not start the year on time and suffered the unhappy triad - ACL, MCL, and meniscus tears. Let someone else gamble that there isn't a set-back or compensation injury.

R2

23    Jefferson, Justin MIN WR   - Unsure that he can repeat and not have a sophomore slump. Run first team. Cousins doesn't inspire many.     
24    Mixon, Joe CIN RB   - yup, it's Mixon propaganda season. Consider me cautious on him staying upright for 17 games. OL still kinda sucks, right?

R3

25    Kittle, George SFO TE   - Definitely a top 3 guy, just a little early if Lance isn't a guy that relies on the TE. Add in Deebo is back and the rise of Aiyuk.         
32    Thomas, Michael NOS WR   - Brees is gone and the 2 remaining QBs are erratic at best. I trust in Sean Payton, but not the QBs.      
34    Allen, Keenan LAC WR   - If the rumblings that Mike Williams gets the Michael Thomas role in the new offense, could that mean a little less for Keenan than usual?     
 

R4

37    Pitts, Kyle ATL TE  - Yup, a rookie TE. Too early. Someone will rise to the occasion for receptions, doesn't have to be the TE.     
40    Montgomery, David CHI RB  - End of year play-off schedule sent stock soaring. Cohen returns and they added Damien too.  Rookie QB impact? 
 

R5

49    Jones, Julio TEN WR  - Targets to be had, but generally don't like to chase WRs changing teams. Run first team still.  Never really been a TD guy.
51    Andrews, Mark BAL TE  - Team focused on bringing in receivers. Not a lot of targets to give up and still remain useful. Too much run offense.     
 

R6

61    Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB  - Try not to chase last year's career stats. Not likely to have personal bests again.  Skipping 'team time' this year.    
67    Hurts, Jalen PHI QB  - A bit early. Only reason he's at this spot is because of his running. Is that really enough to bet on? Can he read a defense? 

69    Golladay, Kenny NYG WR   - Changing teams, at least he's already practicing with his new QB. Unsure he can stay healthy.  Lots of competition for targets.   
72    Robinson, James JAC RB  - Either we believe or we don't. New coaching staff used their second highest draft capital on his replacement.

R7

76    Beckham, Odell CLE WR   - Just a name value pick here. Last 4 years he's basically been Mike Williams in stats (non-PPR). The Eli feed is long gone.

83    Chark, D.J. JAC WR   - Which WR will Lawrence latch onto: the 'old reliable', the '1st round pick', or 'DJ'? Possible run first team like the HC did in college? 

R8

92    Fournette, Leonard TBB RB    - Ronald Jones outperformed him last year didn't he? More of the same? Gio is gong to get his as well.    
94    Carter, Michael NYJ RB   - Probably starts. Maybe he takes the job and runs with it.  Maybe he is just a replacement level RB and proves it.    
95    Thomas, Logan WAS TE  - Checkdown Alex Smith retired. FitzMagic looks downfield. FitzTragic gets benched. Heinecke like to use the TE?      
 

R9

97    Boyd, Tyler CIN WR   - Good offense, but is the #3 projected WR a better gamble than some other team's #1 WR at this price point?  PPR only.   

99    Gesicki, Mike MIA TE   - Is there enough targets to go around for the trio of WRs and the TE? Is Tua really practicing the long ball this off-season?     

106    Mayfield, Baker CLE QB  - Hand-off, hand-off, pass to trusty hands Landry, hand-off, hand-off, pick a TE out of the trio. Interception forcing it to OBJ.

R10

116    Engram, Evan NYG TE  - More receiving options this year: Golladay, Toney, Shepard, Slayton. Rudolph brought in. Engram just doesn't seem to stay healthy.       
 

There's my brown colored glasses for the rounds presented.

 
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Crippler

IBL Representative
Round 1.

the only DND is Mahomes. But I am waiting on QB. Do I want Rodgers in the 6th as think value as QB8 but he has hesitant thought also. Brady in the 7th or wait for Ryan in the 10th. Even though Hills value does not excite me. I see tire difference at RB, down to Chubb also. 
 

I like the rest but Zek at 9 stands out. Thus would love that as my starting position in a draft. Even though how often does he really last that far. 
 

Round 2

This will depend on format. I have a draft coming up with only 1 RB needed. Thus none of the RBs excite me here but all WR seem like nice value. Only RB, I don’t mind is Aaron Jones but want to handcuff with Dillon for sure and still little scary with Rodgers situation. Plus I like value in 3rd with a few RBs instead. But I am probably looking at WR and think all look great. If trading allowed, I could see move down here. 
 

Round 3

Only DND other than QB is Antonio Pierce. I don’t see him running away with job like most and think he loses 3rd down to McIssac. Plus Fitz will be replaced by Heineke at some point. Wash players to me feel like DND to me in the end. 
 

love the value of Dobbin, and Swift here. Which makes decision hard as really feel Allen is huge value. I like Thomas also. My next fav RB value is Etienne in the 5th and where the conflict begins as in PPR, want the WR here way more than 5th round guys. 
 

4th round

love Lamb, Evans here. Don’t mind Robinson

would not touch Pitts, Carson. And WTF players already hit my hesitant to draft page. Again if my Love guys gone and can trade, have attempted to move up in 3rd or down again. Starting with Zek, Ridley, Dobbins, K. Allen would be awesome. 
 

5th round

matters How I started now. If no trades and have Zek, Ridley,Allen, , Evans than Etienne is the look here. But the issue is what if he goes before pick because the next tiers don’t excite me at all. Sermon next best at 84.  The WR tiers have dropped after Moore and like the TE but Fant in the 8th screams value to me and don’t mind Giescki, Engram, Tonyan or Irv Smith who goes later also. 

DND. Gaskins. I just think such a replaceable talent at any time. 
Hunt. Very talented but am I really drafting the 2nd fiddle RB this early. 

6th round

Like Golloday, Rodgers, Kupp. Go the opposite of Riffraff and feel Golloday will be alpha in NYG WR room. Rest open things up but don’t scare me for significant targets. Do I grab QB now or later. Knowing me, probably later

DND. The rest. I feel round 7 has better talent

Aiyuck is one that sticks out as really feel the targets are harder to come by here, than NYG. I like Samuels value instead. 

7th round

Like. Brady, Beckham, Stafford, Sutton,  Chark, Sermon

DND. Probably Claypool. I just think so many mouths to feed in Pitt plus James Washington is no slouch. But makes Big Ben consideration as QB later and easy to get away from. Maybe pair with Ryan as the targets are so enticing . 
 

8th round

love Noah Fant. He might even be 7th round pick in the end. I see Lock taking big step up this year. Love his off season

could go any direction after this. You are starting to fill in the blanks. 
hopefully have 2 RB-4 WR-1 TE

like D. Samuel, Waddle, Landry, TEs at this point. Maybe even moved up from trade down earlier to another round 7 pick. 

 

ffmail4me

Footballguy
Round 3

Only DND other than QB is Antonio Pierce. I don’t see him running away with job like most and think he loses 3rd down to McIssac. Plus Fitz will be replaced by Heineke at some point. Wash players to me feel like DND to me in the end. 
 
I wouldn't draft Antonio Pierce either, but I'd definitely be thrilled at getting Antonio Gibson in the 3rd. You'll know his name after this year. I'm sure of it. ;)

 

Faust

MVP
This is a great topic @Biabreakable - thanks for starting this thread.

The David Dodds articles always had a set of rules outlining his reasoning for avoiding specific criteria for avoiding these players. I cannot remember all of the rules; however, I think one of his rules was avoiding players on teams that were likely to finish with bottom 8 teams.

Here are some power rankings that can help us with this task:

NFL Power Rankings 2021: 1-32 poll, plus the most improved offseason teams and players who benefited from the draft

NFL Power Rankings 2021: Which teams are legit contenders?

Ranking all 32 NFL rosters by talent heading into 2021 training camp: Tom Brady's Bucs at top, Browns No. 3

Here are some of the teams who are likely contenders to finish as bottom 8 teams:

  • Houston Texans
  • Detroit Lions
  • New York Jets
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Las Vegas Raiders
  • Chicago Bears
  • Denver Broncos 
  • New York Giants
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • New England Patriots (offensive players - the Patriots will be a better team this year)
If you think that there are teams missing from this list or teams that are on this list that will not be anywhere close to being a bottom 8 team - then please feel free to add to the discussion!

While there will be fantasy football contributing players from these rosters - and you always need to factor in ADP / Value into your player acquisition process, the reality is that these teams will likely struggle to be consistent weekly performers and this will result in disappointing games for the players from some of these teams.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
I'm a big believer in not taking a QB until round 5 at the earliest, simply way too easy a position to fill. So I hate basically all these ADP's, and would probably just play QBBC at these prices. 

Round 2:

To defend the Akers ADP, in my opinion there isn't a more fantasy friendly HC for RBs than McVay. He prefers a workhorse, he involves RBs in the passing game, and he's always running the ball inside the 5. The husk of Todd Gurley was still an RB1 in 2019, Akers is a better player than that version of Gurley. CJ Anderson was a top-5 RB for a stretch and he was basically out of the NFL both before and after. If Akers is as talented as his draft position suggests(and this is where I have my doubts) he has a case for going where Cook and Kamara are going. Personally, I like him at the top of round 2, but the ceiling is as high as anyone short of CMC in my opinion.

I like Mixon in round 2 as well. I think he's going to get as many touches as he can handle, and the OL is improved. He's got a high floor in my opinion. I don't see much difference between Mixon and the RBs at the top of the round, and I would certainly take him over Najee Harris.

Darren Waller feels at least a round too high to me. I think the Raiders OL losses could sink the entire offense, and certainly the passing game. I do have Waller as the TE2, but not touching him at this price. I would extend that to Kittle at the top of round 3 as well. Just feels like reaching for the next guy because Kelce is gone. At these prices for me, its either Kelce, or wait at TE.

Round 3:

100% agree on Gibson and Dobbins. 100% disagree on Thomas and Sanders. I think Thomas is the best bounce back player this season. Like you said, he's been better without Brees the last 2 years, and Winston has long been a super fantasy friendly QB for his WRs. Thomas could lead the NFL in targets in my opinion. I don't see any RBBC concerns for Miles Sanders, and his OL was decimated last year. I actually like Sanders about a full round higher than this. I think he'll be the centerpiece of the Eagles offense. 

Keenan Allen feels a little too high to me. I think he might miss Anthony Lynn a little bit, and he wasn't the same target monster when Ekeler was healthy last year. 

Round 4:

Agree 300% on Pitts. He might be a few rounds too high. Is he the best TE prospect of all-time? Probably. Is TE the worst position for rookie impact? Very much so. Love him in dynasty, no interest at this price in redraft.

Terry McLaurin feels low to me. Between the QB upgrade, being healthy, and having other weapons to take attention away, he feels like a prime WR1 breakout candidate. I think he's a lot closer to a guy like Jefferson than his ADP represents.

Both Jacobs and Carson feel like nice values to me, and are guys I'd be pretty happy with as my RB2. Not worried about Drake at all, and Carson's only concern is durability, which is factored in at this price.

I don't feel like Lamb or Godwin are too high, but that said, I prefer Cooper and especially Evans to them. I think I've had Evans above his ADP for his entire career, guy never gets enough credit.

Round 5:

One of Thielen or Julio will be on my team at these prices. They are both #2 WRs in run first offenses, but offenses that pass effectively, and only really use 2 guys. Its possible they are both just about as good as their higher drafted teammates. Woods, Lockett, and Diontae are all solid picks here too. 

I agree 100% on Hunt, and disagree 100% on Etienne and Gaskin. I feel like Gaskin is discount Montgomery in that he's a safe starter, who doesn't excite, but has no real threats to his job. Etienne just worries me that he's going to be used as more of a slash player, and that he'll be your classic better in real life than fantasy types. 

I have zero interest in Hockenson this high, and really wonder why he'll even be better than he was last year. He has a QB downgrade and will see far more defensive attention with the Lions having nothing at WR. About 15-20 picks early for me. On the flip side, Mark Andrews is a favorite of mine. If I don't get Kelce, he's the next best option for me, as I believe he's in the same tier as Waller/Kittle, and is much cheaper. I may be reading too much into it, but everything the Ravens have done this offseason screams more passing, and Andrews is their top weapon. 

Round 6:

Javonte Williams was the best RB in the draft in my opinion, but Melvin Gordon was quietly great down the stretch last year, and was on an 1,100 yard pace at over 5 YPC. He's not going away. I'm also wary of Mike Davis as he wore down a ton last year, and has been a JAG for the majority of his career. Way too high for James Robinson. If I'm taking a RB in this round its Chase Edmonds. 

I like Cooper Kupp in this round, and can get behind Brandon Aiyuk, but I love Kenny Golladay. He's the best contested catch WR in the NFL in my opinion, and exactly the fit this team needed. Daniel Jones throws a really great deep ball, he's never really anyone to throw it to, other than Slayton who is probably 25% the player Golladay is. Golladay is the perfect WR3 in my opinion, with WR2 upside. 

Round 7:

Just a gut feeling, but Trey Sermon is fool's gold to me. That's probably a stronger dynasty than redraft opinion, but I just don't think he's a very good prospect. I the the 49ers will end up wishing they had taken Michael Carter instead. 

I like all the WRs in this round as WR3/4 guys, but I especially like Beckham here. Based on these ADPs, I'd be very happy with Thielen/Golladay/Beckham as my WRs 2/3/4.

Round 8:

I really like Raheem Mostert here. A possible RB4, that could return RB2 value. I'm not going to penalize him for getting hurt last year(I'd have to penalize the entire 49ers roster seemingly) and he likely would get a boost from Trey Lance getting in the lineup as running QBs have been proven to increase running lanes for RBs, which is also some of why I like Chase Edmonds. Melvin Gordon is worth a look in this round as well. I like Carter in dynasty, but in redraft I'm probably avoiding the Jets in general.

I like all the WRs in this round as WR4 guys. I'd rank them Cooks>Jeudy>Deebo>Smith though. All 4 will likely be inconsistent due to poor QB play. 

Logan Thomas is a favorite of mine. Fitzpatrick has always had an eye for bigger targets(Parker, Evans, Marshall) and Thomas is the closest thing Washington has to that. I also think that offense in general is just being underrated. I'd probably pass on Fant, as I think he'll be the #3 target in Denver. 

Round 9:

Jones and Harris are both guys I'm probably avoiding. Too big of RBBCs to take, especially as neither is a pass catcher. 

Boyd and Waddle are both solid picks here, but I think Robby Anderson is a clear cut above them for me. 

I don't really like Gesicki this high. A lot more target competition this season.

Round 10:

Really like David Johnson here. I think Ingram is done, and Lindsay is just a COP guy. Johnson feels like a potential 250 touch guy, even on an awful offense, that is well worth a 10th rounder. I like AJ Dillon here to. Possible top-10 RB if Aaron Jones goes down, and could have some standalone value as a GL back.

I like all the WRs in this round here, but would highlight Curtis Samuel. I think he's a sneaky candidate to see some of JD McKissic's work from last year, as well as be the #2 pass catcher. I like every part of this Washington offense at their ADPs. 

Caveat that its Rodgers dependent, but Tonyan feels like a solid value this late, Evan Engram...not so much.

Guys I like still available:

2 QB's I like late, are Ben Roethlisberger and Daniel Jones. They both have a ton of weapons, and despite what their coaching staffs may want to be, I think these are both going to be passing teams. Ben obviously has a higher passing ceiling, but Jones adds quite a bit as a runner. Solid QB2 candidates. Also Ryan Fitzpatrick, but anyone who read this far, has probably already assumed that.

James Conner and Kenyan Drake are 2 RBs that I think are quality handcuffs, that have proven they can be productive recently. I don't see either taking the starting job without an injury, but they are quality stashes in my opinion. I also like the Buffalo RBs, especially Moss, as its unlikely that an offense that explosive doesn't have a RB of some value. 

I know he's on a new team, and injury prone, and suspended in week 1, but man Will Fuller outside the top 120 picks feels like stealing. I also like Michael Gallup as a depth option who is an injury away from being a WR2. Hollywood feels underrated as well as a 3rd year WR who really came on down the stretch on a team that wants to pass more. I'm willing to take a flier on Henry Ruggs just off his speed and draft capital. Not like anyone is really standing in his way. That logic on Gallup, I think also applies to Antonio Brown. 

Irv Smith feels like a TE2 to target. There is likely room for a 3rd pass catcher to step up in Minnesota to something like 600-6, and its highly unlikely to be a WR. Its possible that Smith goes from splitting with Rudolph to splitting with Conklin, but Smith did come on a bit down the stretch last year, and maybe he just runs away with the job?

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
Faust said:
This is a great topic @Biabreakable - thanks for starting this thread.

The David Dodds articles always had a set of rules outlining his reasoning for avoiding specific criteria for avoiding these players. I cannot remember all of the rules; however, I think one of his rules was avoiding players on teams that were likely to finish with bottom 8 teams.
Yeah this is a good point. 

Does anyone remember any of the other criteria Dodds would use for this?

 

rzrback77

IBL Representative
David Dodds rules to eliminate the suck

  1. All players on the worst eight offenses must be eliminated. Worst offenses are calculated looking at team projections using standard PPR scoring. 
  2. Of the remaining 16 teams, remove the four with the worst playoff matchups (Week 15-17?). 
  3. Players with average draft positions (ADP) 40+ points higher than my rank get the ax too. Let's face it, you were never getting these guys anyway so why clutter your mind with these overpriced options.
  4. Old players suck. They get hurt a lot and offer minimal upside. Some of these players are still pretending to have skills, but many will likely disappoint.
  5. Unless you are in a league that does not allow transactions, you should not be drafting multiple kickers and defenses. Go ahead and cross off kickers and defense outside of the top 12.
  6.  Add back any player where I rank him 50 points higher than his average draft position.
  7. The Top 20 players on my board are exempt. Even on bad teams and bad situations, the stars usually get their stats.
 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Of course, we colorblind readers have just the opposite problem.
Hmmm.

I was fooling around with the underline option but I did not like how that looked. However maybe that would be easier for everyone to read if I did it that way?

I do intend to revisit this now that I have Dodds criteria that can be applied to this. That will be a bit of preparation on my part but I will get to it eventually.

I would love to hear other folks thoughts on this, and maybe going deeper than 10 rounds would be good as well. I just didnt want to do too much all at once.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
Hmmm.

I was fooling around with the underline option but I did not like how that looked. However maybe that would be easier for everyone to read if I did it that way?

I do intend to revisit this now that I have Dodds criteria that can be applied to this. That will be a bit of preparation on my part but I will get to it eventually.

I would love to hear other folks thoughts on this, and maybe going deeper than 10 rounds would be good as well. I just didnt want to do too much all at once.
I have a couple questions with the Dodds criteria. What constitutes old? Is Julio old? Thielen? Hopkins? Where is the line drawn? Does age apply at QB where almost half of the consensus QB1s are over 30?

As far as the criteria goes without factoring in the age part, I would think David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore and Travis Etienne would be the biggest losers as non top-20 overall guys in bottom-8 offenses.

 

miqws

Footballguy
I will give this a crack, will of course be totally wrong on some.  

Rd 1: D. Adams - the chance that his QB is not Rodgers is not worth the risk at this price.  WR is not a position I am willing to take a risk when there are so many good options

Rd 2: A.Ekeler - 16 feels like a ceiling price to me.

Rd 3: Kittle - love the player, but I do not think he gets the volume to justify the ranking.  Also his all out playing style invites injury.

Rd 4: Montgomery - I think his volume decreases.  This is a ceiling price to me. 

Rd 5: Lockett - when he dinged up, he plays but is not productive at all.  DK is ascending.  60 is pricey for me.

Rd 6: Rodgers - very stubborn dude.  High risk at this price.

Rd 7: Chark - may be the WR 3 on the team, behind Shenault and Jones.  

Rd 8: Gordon - He may be on the bench at the back end of the year.  Teams do not lie when they draft.

Rd: 9: Jones - I think Bernard is on the field, a lot. 

Rd 10: Tonyan - he may not have Rodgers throwing to him.  TD regression more probable than not.  

 

TS Garp

Footballguy
Darren Waller feels at least a round too high to me. I think the Raiders OL losses could sink the entire offense, and certainly the passing game.

Both Jacobs and Carson feel like nice values to me, and are guys I'd be pretty happy with as my RB2. Not worried about Drake at all,
Great stuff - thanks.  Curious whether you can elaborate on why you think the OL issues will affect Waller and not Jacobs. I get that you may feel that Waller will be asked to block more but if the OL is that bad, don't you see it negatively affecting Jacobs, too?  Even in the version of events where Drake doesn't get a ton of work, he's likely to eat into Jacobs receiving production at least a bit (and potentially more) which means Jacobs will either need to repeat his 12 rushing td's (possible but a tough bet) or increase his rushing production, which doesn't seem like a given with the OL issues.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Great stuff - thanks.  Curious whether you can elaborate on why you think the OL issues will affect Waller and not Jacobs. I get that you may feel that Waller will be asked to block more but if the OL is that bad, don't you see it negatively affecting Jacobs, too?  Even in the version of events where Drake doesn't get a ton of work, he's likely to eat into Jacobs receiving production at least a bit (and potentially more) which means Jacobs will either need to repeat his 12 rushing td's (possible but a tough bet) or increase his rushing production, which doesn't seem like a given with the OL issues.
Like you said, I think Waller could be asked to block a bit more(not that he should, but Gruden is pretty old school in that regard) and I think Carr likely comes down as he's long shown himself to be more effected by pressure than most QBs. Waller also really had a huge spike down the stretch last year. In the last 5 games, he averaged 9-145-.80 per game, but before that, averaged 6-51-.40. Maybe he just was used better, or played better, but he may have also just been on the plus side of variance, and for me, a 2nd rounder is too big of a price to find out.

In Jacobs case, I feel like the OL issues are already baked into his price tag. I think he's a great bet for 1000-10 on the ground, with admittedly a 2nd fiddle role behind Drake in the passing game.  He's a high floor guy, based off of workload and Gruden loving running the ball in short yardage situations. Only 6 players saw more short yardage carries than Jacobs did last year, and 3 of those guys were Zeke, Cook, and Henry. I don't love Jacobs by any means, I just think he's being overcorrected a bit. He was an RB1 last year, and I think he's a quality RB2 this year, but he's being priced at RB20 and that feels wrong to me.

 

TS Garp

Footballguy
Like you said, I think Waller could be asked to block a bit more(not that he should, but Gruden is pretty old school in that regard) and I think Carr likely comes down as he's long shown himself to be more effected by pressure than most QBs. Waller also really had a huge spike down the stretch last year. In the last 5 games, he averaged 9-145-.80 per game, but before that, averaged 6-51-.40. Maybe he just was used better, or played better, but he may have also just been on the plus side of variance, and for me, a 2nd rounder is too big of a price to find out.

In Jacobs case, I feel like the OL issues are already baked into his price tag. I think he's a great bet for 1000-10 on the ground, with admittedly a 2nd fiddle role behind Drake in the passing game.  He's a high floor guy, based off of workload and Gruden loving running the ball in short yardage situations. Only 6 players saw more short yardage carries than Jacobs did last year, and 3 of those guys were Zeke, Cook, and Henry. I don't love Jacobs by any means, I just think he's being overcorrected a bit. He was an RB1 last year, and I think he's a quality RB2 this year, but he's being priced at RB20 and that feels wrong to me.
Very helpful - thanks. I think you're right that Jacobs is a pretty solid floor play but the ceiling seems pretty capped at this point.  However, as you say, that's pretty baked into his price at this point.  I'm seeing him go pretty consistently in the 5th in best ball drafts.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I have a couple questions with the Dodds criteria. What constitutes old? Is Julio old? Thielen? Hopkins? Where is the line drawn? Does age apply at QB where almost half of the consensus QB1s are over 30?

As far as the criteria goes without factoring in the age part, I would think David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore and Travis Etienne would be the biggest losers as non top-20 overall guys in bottom-8 offenses.
That is a good question and I wish I knew what Dodds criteria for old might be.

For me I have a pretty good idea about when players at specific positions decline on average, so I would use those for this,

Julio is 32 and this is the last season of the plateau we see with good WR in their later stages. There is a more precipitous drop at age 33 and then again at age 35.

Thielen is 31 so he still has this season and next in that plateau area. Hopkins will be 29 this season, he just entered that plateau area last season of age 28-32

For the QBs its different. If they are good they tend to keep being good. Look at Tom Brady. Of course the last year of Peyton Manning, he wasn't playing as well he had before. Rust never sleeps and age always wins eventually.

I am not sure who I would consider to be the bottom 8 offenses right now. That is something I need to do some research on before coming to a conclusion. I will say this though that if Jacksonville is a bottom 8 offense that would be a reason for me to cross ETN off my list since he isn't in my top 20.

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
Like you said, I think Waller could be asked to block a bit more(not that he should, but Gruden is pretty old school in that regard) and I think Carr likely comes down as he's long shown himself to be more effected by pressure than most QBs. Waller also really had a huge spike down the stretch last year. In the last 5 games, he averaged 9-145-.80 per game, but before that, averaged 6-51-.40. Maybe he just was used better, or played better, but he may have also just been on the plus side of variance, and for me, a 2nd rounder is too big of a price to find out.

In Jacobs case, I feel like the OL issues are already baked into his price tag. I think he's a great bet for 1000-10 on the ground, with admittedly a 2nd fiddle role behind Drake in the passing game.  He's a high floor guy, based off of workload and Gruden loving running the ball in short yardage situations. Only 6 players saw more short yardage carries than Jacobs did last year, and 3 of those guys were Zeke, Cook, and Henry. I don't love Jacobs by any means, I just think he's being overcorrected a bit. He was an RB1 last year, and I think he's a quality RB2 this year, but he's being priced at RB20 and that feels wrong to me.
The Raiders wont ask Waller to block more to help out their offensive line because Waller is not good at that.

I would love to hear how many times Waller has actually blocked for the Raiders in his time there. You might be able to count it on one hand.

Waller is a big WR not a TE always has been.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
The Raiders wont ask Waller to block more to help out their offensive line because Waller is not good at that.

I would love to hear how many times Waller has actually blocked for the Raiders in his time there. You might be able to count it on one hand.

Waller is a big WR not a TE always has been.
You"d be very surprised to know that only 10 TEs spent more time blocking last year than Waller. Of those 10, only Gronk, Higbee, and Henry were majorly involved in the passing game. 

I agree that Waller is obviously much better as a pass catcher, but like I said, Gruden is old school, and uses him pretty traditionally, in addition to splitting him out 

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
travdogg said:
You"d be very surprised to know that only 10 TEs spent more time blocking last year than Waller. Of those 10, only Gronk, Higbee, and Henry were majorly involved in the passing game. 

I agree that Waller is obviously much better as a pass catcher, but like I said, Gruden is old school, and uses him pretty traditionally, in addition to splitting him out 
I would be surprised. 

According to this Waller ran a route on 91,7% of the Raiders passing plays. In 2019 he only ran routes on 76%

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
I think one of the best ways to avoid the suck is to NOT rank Cam Akers at #15 overall, as a 2nd round pick.Yikes.He wasn't even the best RB on his own team last season, that would be D. Henderson. Alarm bells are ringing on this Cam Akers stuff..buyer beware of the overhyped player shooting up draft boards.we've seen this movie 1000 times. If it looks too good to be true, it usually is.

J. Jefferson is too low at 23 - someone pointed out that vikes are a run first team, and Cousins isn't a big time passer.Hmm, that same layout didn't hurt JJ last season. He's going to feast. Breaking Randy Moss rookie season records DEFINITELY means something here.

 

Gally

Footballguy
I have a couple questions with the Dodds criteria. What constitutes old? Is Julio old? Thielen? Hopkins? Where is the line drawn? Does age apply at QB where almost half of the consensus QB1s are over 30?

As far as the criteria goes without factoring in the age part, I would think David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, DJ Moore and Travis Etienne would be the biggest losers as non top-20 overall guys in bottom-8 offenses.


Biabreakable said:
That is a good question and I wish I knew what Dodds criteria for old might be.

For me I have a pretty good idea about when players at specific positions decline on average, so I would use those for this,

Julio is 32 and this is the last season of the plateau we see with good WR in their later stages. There is a more precipitous drop at age 33 and then again at age 35.

Thielen is 31 so he still has this season and next in that plateau area. Hopkins will be 29 this season, he just entered that plateau area last season of age 28-32

For the QBs its different. If they are good they tend to keep being good. Look at Tom Brady. Of course the last year of Peyton Manning, he wasn't playing as well he had before. Rust never sleeps and age always wins eventually.

I am not sure who I would consider to be the bottom 8 offenses right now. That is something I need to do some research on before coming to a conclusion. I will say this though that if Jacksonville is a bottom 8 offense that would be a reason for me to cross ETN off my list since he isn't in my top 20.
I think he left it purposefully vague.  I think that value will be different for everyone and will likely be different position to position.  I think Dodd layed out the guidelines but each drafter needs to figure out what those things mean.  I also think that the age line could change year to year as well.  

Players age differently based on use, injury history, etc.  One player may be "old" at 29 and another at 34 and they play the same position.  I think you need to decide player to player if they are "old" and then remove them accordingly.  It's not a one size fits all.  

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I think he left it purposefully vague.  I think that value will be different for everyone and will likely be different position to position.  I think Dodd layed out the guidelines but each drafter needs to figure out what those things mean.  I also think that the age line could change year to year as well.  

Players age differently based on use, injury history, etc.  One player may be "old" at 29 and another at 34 and they play the same position.  I think you need to decide player to player if they are "old" and then remove them accordingly.  It's not a one size fits all.  
Yeah I hear you on the age thing. Each player is unique. I dont think many of us saw Gurleys decline coming so soon in his career for example and it has caused me to wonder if him coming back too soon his rookie year may have ended up having long term effects on him. Or maybe it was something else entirely that I just dont know.

In any case as you say each player is unique as far as their career path and development.

 

BassNBrew

IBL Representative
I think Superflex leagues and Scott Fish Satelitte leagues are wrecking the MFL ADP.  I've had two drafts with FBGs in juiced QB scoring leagues and Mahommes and Allen both went in the 3rd round in a 12 and 13 team league.  Even in a 16 team league the first QB went at 2.16...the 32nd pick.

Regardless, I'm not touching the suck of Hurts.  Very good likelihood that numerous QBs on the WW outperform him.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I think Superflex leagues and Scott Fish Satelitte leagues are wrecking the MFL ADP.  I've had two drafts with FBGs in juiced QB scoring leagues and Mahommes and Allen both went in the 3rd round in a 12 and 13 team league.  Even in a 16 team league the first QB went at 2.16...the 32nd pick.

Regardless, I'm not touching the suck of Hurts.  Very good likelihood that numerous QBs on the WW outperform him.
Yeah ADP this year seems less reliable than it has been.

If you know of a better source for ADP please let me know.

 

IHEARTFF

Footballguy
I think Superflex leagues and Scott Fish Satelitte leagues are wrecking the MFL ADP.  I've had two drafts with FBGs in juiced QB scoring leagues and Mahommes and Allen both went in the 3rd round in a 12 and 13 team league.  Even in a 16 team league the first QB went at 2.16...the 32nd pick.

Regardless, I'm not touching the suck of Hurts.  Very good likelihood that numerous QBs on the WW outperform him.
Was wondering if something like this was happening as I have a couple rookie drafts going with QBs going quicker than usual. 

 

Gally

Footballguy
Was wondering if something like this was happening as I have a couple rookie drafts going with QBs going quicker than usual. 
This could be a function that this QB class is touted as really good with 4 or 5 (depending on what you think of Mac) potentially top end QB's.  This may also be skewing them a little higher that other years.  

 

DeaLerZ

Footballguy
I am not understanding any of the discussion on Montgomery being overvalued... I am targeting in all of my drafts as long as his ADP remains this low

All reports are that the Bears plan to give him 20 touches a game, he is faster, has one of the best RB coaches in the league, and will be the focal point of their offense... and I really don't see Cohen being any kind of threat to his production. The Cohen is back argument really does not justify this guy's drop in ADP and he continues to be a steal... he was a top 5 RB last year, and didn't do great most of the year... I think he could easily end up back in the top 5 again this year... there just aren't that many RBs who are even going to taste 20 touches a game anymore

Bears head coach Matt Nagy said he wants 20 rushing attempts per game for David Montgomery. 

Nagy, unlike most coaches who insist they'll run the ball no matter what, conceded that Montgomery's workload will hinge on game script. "Depending on what the game is, what's happened the last couple years and why some of David's carries -- which aren't low -- haven't been quite as high is a lot of guys get it in to four-minute mode in the fourth quarter," Nagy said. "That's where they can get those extra four or five carries, which can bump them into the top five, you know, with 20 rushes a game. That's our goal." Nagy added: "We want to have the lead so that we can give him the ball, so he has touches." Montgomery, after a host of injuries in the Chicago backfield, seized the workhorse role by default, logging more carries than all but three running backs in 2020. Montgomery has a lot working against him headed into 2021: Tarik Cohen is back, presumably to retake his pass-catching role, and Justin Fields could emerge as the Bears' starter, taking away high-value opportunities for Montgomery in the run game. He's being drafted as the 19th running back off the board. 

 

Stinkin Ref

IBL Representative
I am not understanding any of the discussion on Montgomery being overvalued... I am targeting in all of my drafts as long as his ADP remains this low

All reports are that the Bears plan to give him 20 touches a game, he is faster, has one of the best RB coaches in the league, and will be the focal point of their offense... and I really don't see Cohen being any kind of threat to his production. The Cohen is back argument really does not justify this guy's drop in ADP and he continues to be a steal... he was a top 5 RB last year, and didn't do great most of the year... I think he could easily end up back in the top 5 again this year... there just aren't that many RBs who are even going to taste 20 touches a game anymore

Bears head coach Matt Nagy said he wants 20 rushing attempts per game for David Montgomery. 

Nagy, unlike most coaches who insist they'll run the ball no matter what, conceded that Montgomery's workload will hinge on game script. "Depending on what the game is, what's happened the last couple years and why some of David's carries -- which aren't low -- haven't been quite as high is a lot of guys get it in to four-minute mode in the fourth quarter," Nagy said. "That's where they can get those extra four or five carries, which can bump them into the top five, you know, with 20 rushes a game. That's our goal." Nagy added: "We want to have the lead so that we can give him the ball, so he has touches." Montgomery, after a host of injuries in the Chicago backfield, seized the workhorse role by default, logging more carries than all but three running backs in 2020. Montgomery has a lot working against him headed into 2021: Tarik Cohen is back, presumably to retake his pass-catching role, and Justin Fields could emerge as the Bears' starter, taking away high-value opportunities for Montgomery in the run game. He's being drafted as the 19th running back off the board. 
in addition to Cohen.....they brought in Damian Williams and he may have more of a direct impact on Montgomery.....Nagy is familiar with him from KC.....and he can play fresh off a year off....so I think you combine Cohen back with the addition of Williams and there may be reason to pause or temper expectations.... 

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Was wondering if something like this was happening as I have a couple rookie drafts going with QBs going quicker than usual. 
The ADP I'm using  from real MFL drafts so far this year is heavily dynasty and even IDP (zealots leagues) and best ball.

So it's not ideal for redraft focus of this thread but I think the real drafts are a lot better than mock draft ADP at least.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
This is a great topic @Biabreakable - thanks for starting this thread.

The David Dodds articles always had a set of rules outlining his reasoning for avoiding specific criteria for avoiding these players. I cannot remember all of the rules; however, I think one of his rules was avoiding players on teams that were likely to finish with bottom 8 teams.

Here are some power rankings that can help us with this task:

NFL Power Rankings 2021: 1-32 poll, plus the most improved offseason teams and players who benefited from the draft

NFL Power Rankings 2021: Which teams are legit contenders?

Ranking all 32 NFL rosters by talent heading into 2021 training camp: Tom Brady's Bucs at top, Browns No. 3

Here are some of the teams who are likely contenders to finish as bottom 8 teams:

  • Houston Texans
  • Detroit Lions
  • New York Jets
  • Philadelphia Eagles
  • Jacksonville Jaguars
  • Carolina Panthers
  • Las Vegas Raiders
  • Chicago Bears
  • Denver Broncos 
  • New York Giants
  • Atlanta Falcons
  • New England Patriots (offensive players - the Patriots will be a better team this year)
If you think that there are teams missing from this list or teams that are on this list that will not be anywhere close to being a bottom 8 team - then please feel free to add to the discussion!

While there will be fantasy football contributing players from these rosters - and you always need to factor in ADP / Value into your player acquisition process, the reality is that these teams will likely struggle to be consistent weekly performers and this will result in disappointing games for the players from some of these teams.
So I did some evaluation of all offenses over the last 3 seasons also with some consideration of team changes in personnel since last year.

These are the bottom 10 that I came up with and how I ranked them.

Raiders - The Raiders were 10th in points scored and 8th in yards in 2020. They have lost some offensive linemen but their offense has been too good for me to see them regressing into the bottom 8 this season.

Miami - The Dolphins were 15th in points and 22nd in yards last season so this is more average than bottom 8. In 2019 they were 25th in points and 27th in yards. The Dolphins have added Waddle in the draft this year but unless Tua really improves I can see this offense regressing a bit this season. 

Giants - The Giants were 31st in points scored and yards gained in 2020. They were 19th and 23rd in 2019. They have added Golladay in free agency and Barkley being healthy should have them improving, but I am not sure they improve enough to not be in the bottom 8.

Bears - The Bears were 23rd in points scored and 26th in yards in 2020. They were 29th in both categories in 2019. While I think Fields will be a better QB than Trubisky I think its going to take some time for him to develop, so I am not expecting a lot of improvement in their offense this season.

Panthers - I am not certain about the Panthers this season. They do have some very good WR and also CMC. Their offense has been around 20th the last few seasons but I think they are going to be worse because of Sam Darnold at QB.

Eagles - The Eagles were 26th in points scored and 25th in yards gained in 2020. This offense has been better than this is previous seasons, but with Hurts at QB I don't see their offense improving that much. Maybe Smith is so good that I am wrong about that though.

Lions - The Lions were 20th in points scored and total yards last season but their personnel seems to have taken a step back with Goff as their QB instead of Stafford. The loss of Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay in free agency should be a step back as well.

Jaguars - The Jaguars were 30th in points scored and 28th in yards in 2020. They were 26th and 20th in these categories in 2019. While I think the addition of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne should improve their offense a lot, these guys are rookies and the coach is a rookie. Maybe that improvement is going to take some time.

Jets - Have been a bad offense for awhile now. They have made changes that should be improvements but I don't see their offense making a big leap this season. I just finished the rookie poll and 2 Jets players won at pick 11 and pick 12. Elijah Moore and Michael Carter. While the team is lacking competition to hold off these rookie players, it makes me nervous seeing these players going this high in the polls as I don't think this is going to be a good offense in 2021.

Texans - Tyrod Taylor at QB I guess? The Texans have been a better offense than this with Watson at the helm but without him I think they may be the worst offense in 2021.

I would like to open this up for discussion before applying it to the ADP data.

For ADP what I will do is use MFL again but only include drafts that have been done since July 1st which will hopefully eliminate some of the more dynasty focused drafts I am using in the OP. I will do that after some discussion about the bottom 8 teams.

 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Miami - The Dolphins were 15th in points and 22nd in yards last season so this is more average than bottom 8. In 2019 they were 25th in points and 27th in yards. The Dolphins have added Waddle in the draft this year but unless Tua really improves I can see this offense regressing a bit this season. 
In my  mocks this summer I have a hard time drafting any Dolphins offensive player. I like the D & the kicker but I typically pick those two up after the draft from the waiver wire.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
So I did some evaluation of all offenses over the last 3 seasons also with some consideration of team changes in personnel since last year.

These are the bottom 10 that I came up with and how I ranked them.

Raiders - The Raiders were 10th in points scored and 8th in yards in 2020. They have lost some offensive linemen but their offense has been too good for me to see them regressing into the bottom 8 this season.

Miami - The Dolphins were 15th in points and 22nd in yards last season so this is more average than bottom 8. In 2019 they were 25th in points and 27th in yards. The Dolphins have added Waddle in the draft this year but unless Tua really improves I can see this offense regressing a bit this season. 

Giants - The Giants were 31st in points scored and yards gained in 2020. They were 19th and 23rd in 2019. They have added Golladay in free agency and Barkley being healthy should have them improving, but I am not sure they improve enough to not be in the bottom 8.

Bears - The Bears were 23rd in points scored and 26th in yards in 2020. They were 29th in both categories in 2019. While I think Fields will be a better QB than Trubisky I think its going to take some time for him to develop, so I am not expecting a lot of improvement in their offense this season.

Panthers - I am not certain about the Panthers this season. They do have some very good WR and also CMC. Their offense has been around 20th the last few seasons but I think they are going to be worse because of Sam Darnold at QB.

Eagles - The Eagles were 26th in points scored and 25th in yards gained in 2020. This offense has been better than this is previous seasons, but with Hurts at QB I don't see their offense improving that much. Maybe Smith is so good that I am wrong about that though.

Lions - The Lions were 20th in points scored and total yards last season but their personnel seems to have taken a step back with Goff as their QB instead of Stafford. The loss of Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay in free agency should be a step back as well.

Jaguars - The Jaguars were 30th in points scored and 28th in yards in 2020. They were 26th and 20th in these categories in 2019. While I think the addition of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne should improve their offense a lot, these guys are rookies and the coach is a rookie. Maybe that improvement is going to take some time.

Jets - Have been a bad offense for awhile now. They have made changes that should be improvements but I don't see their offense making a big leap this season. I just finished the rookie poll and 2 Jets players won at pick 11 and pick 12. Elijah Moore and Michael Carter. While the team is lacking competition to hold off these rookie players, it makes me nervous seeing these players going this high in the polls as I don't think this is going to be a good offense in 2021.

Texans - Tyrod Taylor at QB I guess? The Texans have been a better offense than this with Watson at the helm but without him I think they may be the worst offense in 2021.

I would like to open this up for discussion before applying it to the ADP data.

For ADP what I will do is use MFL again but only include drafts that have been done since July 1st which will hopefully eliminate some of the more dynasty focused drafts I am using in the OP. I will do that after some discussion about the bottom 8 teams.
I think the Broncos are going to be a playoff team, but that is a bottom 8 offense to me. I like Surtain, but I think we are really going to question why the passed on Fields. I'm expecting both Lock and Teddy to start a handful of games this year. If I had to pick one, it'd probably be Teddy, since his style of play should at least result in more wins. 

I agree that the Raiders are unlikely to be a bad offense, and I don't see the Giants as candidates for bottom 8 offenses. The Giants are adding 2 pro bowl level skill guys, and another very interesting prospect, 2019 seems more relevant than 2020 for them. 

Am I crazy to think New England is a candidate? They added a bunch of guys, but are any of them really good? They may still have trouble passing regardless of who is at QB. The WR room has more depth but is still a bunch of #3 WR's, and Jonnu and Henry have never been able to be reliable. Probably better for the offense when Mac Jones takes over, but he's the rare rookie QB, where going to the pros, actually is likely a downgrade for his supporting cast, at least at RB/WR. 

Houston is funny, in the sense that after years of people complaining about needing to upgrade their OL, its now probably the best part of the offense. I don't think they'll go 0-17, but 3 wins feels like a ceiling.

I like the Jags long term, but I think that OL holds them back this year. Lawrence may(likely will) eventually become a player who overcomes his surroundings, but its tough to expect as a rookie.

I personally don't think the dropoff from Stafford to Goff is all that big. Goff has become really underrated I think, but those WR's are awful. This might be the worst WR group of any team in the last 5 years. Hockenson and Swift are likely the top-2 pass catchers, and they will likely see a ton of defensive attention. The OL at least looks solid. Oddly, with Patricia gone, I feel like the Lions and Patriots have kind of similar offenses. 

Bears, Panthers, and Jets all belong on this list to me. I could see the Bears and Jets finishing well, as Fields and Wilson develop. I think Darnold is the worst starting QB in the NFL. Really have to wonder about the Panthers QB evaluation. Newton>Teddy>Darnold in my opinion. 

Lastly, the Eagles are a tough one for me. That is arguably the best OL in the NFC when healthy, Sanders/Goedert have both looked like potential stars at times, but I do agree that Hurts and the WR's make me nervous. They fall into a similar category to the Lions and Patriots to me, though I may consider Miles Sanders a top-20 player, so he may be exempt.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I think the Broncos are going to be a playoff team, but that is a bottom 8 offense to me. I like Surtain, but I think we are really going to question why the passed on Fields. I'm expecting both Lock and Teddy to start a handful of games this year. If I had to pick one, it'd probably be Teddy, since his style of play should at least result in more wins. 

I agree that the Raiders are unlikely to be a bad offense, and I don't see the Giants as candidates for bottom 8 offenses. The Giants are adding 2 pro bowl level skill guys, and another very interesting prospect, 2019 seems more relevant than 2020 for them. 

Am I crazy to think New England is a candidate? They added a bunch of guys, but are any of them really good? They may still have trouble passing regardless of who is at QB. The WR room has more depth but is still a bunch of #3 WR's, and Jonnu and Henry have never been able to be reliable. Probably better for the offense when Mac Jones takes over, but he's the rare rookie QB, where going to the pros, actually is likely a downgrade for his supporting cast, at least at RB/WR. 

Houston is funny, in the sense that after years of people complaining about needing to upgrade their OL, its now probably the best part of the offense. I don't think they'll go 0-17, but 3 wins feels like a ceiling.

I like the Jags long term, but I think that OL holds them back this year. Lawrence may(likely will) eventually become a player who overcomes his surroundings, but its tough to expect as a rookie.

I personally don't think the dropoff from Stafford to Goff is all that big. Goff has become really underrated I think, but those WR's are awful. This might be the worst WR group of any team in the last 5 years. Hockenson and Swift are likely the top-2 pass catchers, and they will likely see a ton of defensive attention. The OL at least looks solid. Oddly, with Patricia gone, I feel like the Lions and Patriots have kind of similar offenses. 

Bears, Panthers, and Jets all belong on this list to me. I could see the Bears and Jets finishing well, as Fields and Wilson develop. I think Darnold is the worst starting QB in the NFL. Really have to wonder about the Panthers QB evaluation. Newton>Teddy>Darnold in my opinion. 

Lastly, the Eagles are a tough one for me. That is arguably the best OL in the NFC when healthy, Sanders/Goedert have both looked like potential stars at times, but I do agree that Hurts and the WR's make me nervous. They fall into a similar category to the Lions and Patriots to me, though I may consider Miles Sanders a top-20 player, so he may be exempt.
I did consider the Broncos but I think their skill players are too good despite the QB play for them to be bottom 8.

My mind is not made up about this yet which is why I was hoping for discussion on this. There are probably 15 teams who could be bottom 8. What I want to try to identify is which ones are the most likely to be bottom 8.

FWIW the Steelers were bottom 8 without Ben and if he goes down early again, maybe they would be again. The same could be said for a lot of teams if they have significant injuries.

The Bengals were a bottom 8 offense last season, but I am expecting them to be greatly improved with Burrow back healthy so I did not mention them. Their offensive line should be better this year.

Maybe you are right about the Patriots. Im not really very excited about their players for fantasy this year. Its just hard for me to bet against Bill.

I am not sure the Eagles are a top offensive line anymore. I know they were for awhile but they have lost some key players such as Peters from that group. Johnson and Kelce are good but Dillard is still unproven although they used a high pick on him a couple years ago. They were not a good offensive line last season.

I have the Giants at 8. I am somewhat on the fence with them being this bad. I dont think very much of Jones at QB though.

Washington is another team who could be here, but I think they have improved enough that they won't be.

I might consider having the Patriots in there instead of the Giants. I will think about that.

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
Man just looking at the 3 lists and some teams are all over the place. There is a lot of inconsistency here.

According to PFF the Vikings are 26th and the low ranking is mostly because of poor pass protection on the inside. Yet looking at ESPN pass block win rate they were 18th.

One thing that is consistent between all 3 lists is the Giants were the worst on two of them and 28th on PFNs list.

Maybe I won't be moving the Giants out of the bottom 8 because of this.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Man just looking at the 3 lists and some teams are all over the place. There is a lot of inconsistency here.

According to PFF the Vikings are 26th and the low ranking is mostly because of poor pass protection on the inside. Yet looking at ESPN pass block win rate they were 18th.

One thing that is consistent between all 3 lists is the Giants were the worst on two of them and 28th on PFNs list.

Maybe I won't be moving the Giants out of the bottom 8 because of this.
I think the Giants OL is underrated, they aren't good or anything, but I don't think they are bottom 5. They are a better run blocking line than they get credit for. Only 12 teams averaged more YPC than the Giants last year, and that was without Barkley. Some of the pass blocking woes, I think, can be chalked up to Daniel Jones not getting rid of the ball, often because nobody was open, which may not be a problem this season. 

That is probably low for the Vikings as well, though I guess its likely assuming with 2 rookie starters, they may not gel instantly. Say what one will about Reiff, he was pretty consistent, if unspectacular. 

I'd personally argue the Steelers have the worst OL.

 

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