Biabreakable
Footballguy
We were discussing this in the do not draft thread about David Dodds yearly articles that go through ADP and identifies players from each round that you want to avoid at that price point, with hopefully some reasoning to support that.
Finding reliable ADP recently has been challenging for me, but what about just using MFL redraft data for that? If someone has a better suggestion for ADP than this please let me know. At least these are real drafts. Those mock drafts like fantasy pros are GIGO and way too far off from real drafts. That does more harm than good.
I will be ordering this based on a 12 team league. So 12 players for each round. Players bolded are those that I want to avoid at current price. Player highlighted in green are players who I think present upside value at their draft position.
Round one
1 McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB
2 Cook, Dalvin MIN RB
3 Kamara, Alvin NOS RB
4 Henry, Derrick TEN RB
5 Barkley, Saquon NYG RB
6 Taylor, Jonathan IND RB
7 Kelce, Travis KCC TE
8 Hill, Tyreek KCC WR
9 Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
10 Chubb, Nick CLE RB
11 Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB
12 Adams, Davante GBP WR
While I think these 12 players are all guys I would like to have and there isn't much suck in round one, I would say Mahomes is a reach going this high in start one QB leagues
Round two
13 Jones, Aaron GBP RB
14 Diggs, Stefon BUF WR
15 Akers, Cam LAR RB
16 Ekeler, Austin LAC RB
17 Allen, Josh BUF QB
18 Metcalf, DK SEA WR
19 Hopkins, DeAndre ARI WR
20 Harris, Najee PIT RB
21 Ridley, Calvin ATL WR
22 Waller, Darren LVR TE
23 Jefferson, Justin MIN WR
24 Mixon, Joe CIN RB
I dont think Akers has done enough to justify this high of draft position. There are RB being selected after this round that I would prefer to have over him. Honestly I don't understand why Akers is going this high. I have been trying to figure that out all offseason. His sample size of good performance was small and it wasn't really that good either, just a lot of volume.
Josh Allen is a great QB but again like Mahomes I think he is being drafted too high in start one QB leagues. Where Allen is going is about where I think Mahomes should be if you are that bullish about him. Allen should likely last at least to round 3 if not later even as a top 5 QB.
I like Joe Mixon and if he is healthy he could have a great season. However its always something with Mixon and so I would say he is a risk going this early.
Round three
25 Kittle, George SFO TE
26 Brown, A.J. TEN WR
27 Gibson, Antonio WAS RB
28 Edwards-Helaire, Clyde KCC RB
29 Murray, Kyler ARI QB
30 Jackson, Lamar BAL QB
31 Swift, D'Andre DET RB
32 Thomas, Michael NOS WR
33 Dobbins, J.K. BAL RB
34 Allen, Keenan LAC WR
35 Prescott, Dak DAL QB
36 Sanders, Miles PHI RB
I really like most of the players going in this range. I have some uncertainty about how Mike Thomas will perform without Brees. People have pointed out to me the numbers he put up with Hill and maybe Winston is better for MT than Hill is. I am not feeling warm and fuzzy about this though and so Thomas is a player I am trying to avoid this season.
Miles Sanders is likely fine at this draft position but I am not sure if the Eagles will be very good on offense and possible time share for Sanders has me avoiding him at this price point.
Round four
37 Pitts, Kyle ATL TE
38 Robinson, Allen CHI WR
39 McLaurin, Terry WAS WR
40 Montgomery, David CHI RB
41 Lamb, CeeDee DAL WR
42 Jacobs, Josh LVR RB
43 Herbert, Justin LAC QB
44 Godwin, Chris TBB WR
45 Carson, Chris SEA RB
46 Wilson, Russell SEA QB
47 Evans, Mike TBB WR
48 Cooper, Amari DAL WR
Pitts is being drafted higher than this in dynasty formats. Its a bit out of hand. He might be fine to take at pick 37 but he is a rookie TE and that is rarely ever a good thing. So I think he is still an avoid at this price.
I considered highlighting Montgomery as a value at this price as I would take him before I took Miles Sanders for example, but I am concerned about Tarik Cohen and also Fields being a running QB so maybe not looking to dump off to the RB as much. So I won't say he is a value here because of that downside.
I think CeeDee Lamb might be a top 12 WR this season so yeah a value at this price point in my view.
Round five
49 Jones, Julio TEN WR
50 Moore, D.J. CAR WR
51 Andrews, Mark BAL TE
52 Chase, Ja'Marr CIN WR
53 Hockenson, T.J. DET TE
54 Woods, Robert LAR WR
55 Gaskin, Myles MIA RB
56 Etienne, Travis JAC RB
57 Thielen, Adam MIN WR
58 Hunt, Kareem CLE RB
59 Johnson, Diontae PIT WR
60 Lockett, Tyler SEA WR
I may be just too ignorant about Myles Gaskin to value him properly. He stands out as someone I would not draft at this price point Hunt put up some good numbers with Chubb out for several games last year. He seems to be going to high considering he is a back up.
I think Chase and ETN will outperform this draft position.
Round six
61 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB
62 Williams, Javonte DEN RB
63 Kupp, Cooper LAR WR
64 Aiyuk, Brandon SFO WR
65 Burrow, Joe CIN QB
66 Davis, Mike ATL RB
67 Hurts, Jalen PHI QB
69 Golladay, Kenny NYG WR
70 Edmonds, Chase ARI RB
71 Tannehill, Ryan TEN QB
72 Robinson, James JAC RB
The first IDP player went at pick 68 which I consider to be a signal that the top pool of offensive talent has been exhausted by this point, otherwise people wouldnt be taking top LB which are similar to WR twos in fantasy.
Hurts stands out as not belonging in the same group as Burrow or Rodgers in my opinion.
I think Mike Davis presents value at this price point. I almost highlighted Javonte WIlliams for this as well, but I expect Gordon to hold him off for a good chunk of the year.
Round seven
73 Higgins, Tee CIN WR
75 Stafford, Matthew LAR QB
76 Beckham, Odell CLE WR
77 Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR
78 Brady, Tom TBB QB
79 Claypool, Chase PIT WR
80 Sutton, Courtland DEN WR
82 Goedert, Dallas PHI TE
83 Chark, D.J. JAC WR
84 Sermon, Trey SFO RB
Some more defensive players slotting in here. I don't really believe in Chark so he stands out as the suck here although Im not really excited about any of these players besides Higgins and Beckham.
Round eight
85 Smith, DeVonta PHI WR
86 Gordon, Melvin DEN RB
87 Fant, Noah DEN TE
88 Mostert, Raheem SFO RB
89 Lawrence, Trevor JAC QB
90 Jeudy, Jerry DEN WR
92 Fournette, Leonard TBB RB
93 Samuel, Deebo SFO WR
94 Carter, Michael NYJ RB
95 Thomas, Logan WAS TE
96 Cooks, Brandin HOU WR
I think Fournettes career is pretty close to being over and I won't be drafting him. Not sure if I have ever drafted him in any legue ever though.
I love Smith and I wanted to highlight him as a value at this draft position, but Hurts does worry me. So I didn't.
Round nine
97 Boyd, Tyler CIN WR
98 Jones, Ronald TBB RB
99 Gesicki, Mike MIA TE
100 Anderson, Robby CAR WR
101 Harris, Damien NEP RB
105 Waddle, Jaylen MIA WR
106 Mayfield, Baker CLE QB
There were almost as many IDP picks in this round as offensive players, which tells me that the pool of talent really has dried up by this point.
I think there are a lot of values in Boyd, Gesicki, Anderson and Harris here. I would take them ahead of some of the round seven and eight guys but I am not specifically targeting any of them either.
Round ten
109 Ryan, Matt ATL QB
110 Shenault, Laviska JAC WR
111 Landry, Jarvis CLE WR
112 Cousins, Kirk MIN QB
113 Johnson, David HOU RB
114 Tonyan, Robert GBP TE
115 Samuel, Curtis WAS WR
116 Engram, Evan NYG TE
117 Lance, Trey SFO QB
118 Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB
119 Dillon, AJ GBP RB
120 Fields, Justin CHI QB
I am not a fan of LS. So with him and Chark as avoids I am likely looking at trying to pick up Marvin Jones much later.
Anyhow there is a start. I am curious what you all think and who specifically you think we should be avoiding at their current draft position?
Finding reliable ADP recently has been challenging for me, but what about just using MFL redraft data for that? If someone has a better suggestion for ADP than this please let me know. At least these are real drafts. Those mock drafts like fantasy pros are GIGO and way too far off from real drafts. That does more harm than good.
I will be ordering this based on a 12 team league. So 12 players for each round. Players bolded are those that I want to avoid at current price. Player highlighted in green are players who I think present upside value at their draft position.
Round one
1 McCaffrey, Christian CAR RB
2 Cook, Dalvin MIN RB
3 Kamara, Alvin NOS RB
4 Henry, Derrick TEN RB
5 Barkley, Saquon NYG RB
6 Taylor, Jonathan IND RB
7 Kelce, Travis KCC TE
8 Hill, Tyreek KCC WR
9 Elliott, Ezekiel DAL RB
10 Chubb, Nick CLE RB
11 Mahomes, Patrick KCC QB
12 Adams, Davante GBP WR
While I think these 12 players are all guys I would like to have and there isn't much suck in round one, I would say Mahomes is a reach going this high in start one QB leagues
Round two
13 Jones, Aaron GBP RB
14 Diggs, Stefon BUF WR
15 Akers, Cam LAR RB
16 Ekeler, Austin LAC RB
17 Allen, Josh BUF QB
18 Metcalf, DK SEA WR
19 Hopkins, DeAndre ARI WR
20 Harris, Najee PIT RB
21 Ridley, Calvin ATL WR
22 Waller, Darren LVR TE
23 Jefferson, Justin MIN WR
24 Mixon, Joe CIN RB
I dont think Akers has done enough to justify this high of draft position. There are RB being selected after this round that I would prefer to have over him. Honestly I don't understand why Akers is going this high. I have been trying to figure that out all offseason. His sample size of good performance was small and it wasn't really that good either, just a lot of volume.
Josh Allen is a great QB but again like Mahomes I think he is being drafted too high in start one QB leagues. Where Allen is going is about where I think Mahomes should be if you are that bullish about him. Allen should likely last at least to round 3 if not later even as a top 5 QB.
I like Joe Mixon and if he is healthy he could have a great season. However its always something with Mixon and so I would say he is a risk going this early.
Round three
25 Kittle, George SFO TE
26 Brown, A.J. TEN WR
27 Gibson, Antonio WAS RB
28 Edwards-Helaire, Clyde KCC RB
29 Murray, Kyler ARI QB
30 Jackson, Lamar BAL QB
31 Swift, D'Andre DET RB
32 Thomas, Michael NOS WR
33 Dobbins, J.K. BAL RB
34 Allen, Keenan LAC WR
35 Prescott, Dak DAL QB
36 Sanders, Miles PHI RB
I really like most of the players going in this range. I have some uncertainty about how Mike Thomas will perform without Brees. People have pointed out to me the numbers he put up with Hill and maybe Winston is better for MT than Hill is. I am not feeling warm and fuzzy about this though and so Thomas is a player I am trying to avoid this season.
Miles Sanders is likely fine at this draft position but I am not sure if the Eagles will be very good on offense and possible time share for Sanders has me avoiding him at this price point.
Round four
37 Pitts, Kyle ATL TE
38 Robinson, Allen CHI WR
39 McLaurin, Terry WAS WR
40 Montgomery, David CHI RB
41 Lamb, CeeDee DAL WR
42 Jacobs, Josh LVR RB
43 Herbert, Justin LAC QB
44 Godwin, Chris TBB WR
45 Carson, Chris SEA RB
46 Wilson, Russell SEA QB
47 Evans, Mike TBB WR
48 Cooper, Amari DAL WR
Pitts is being drafted higher than this in dynasty formats. Its a bit out of hand. He might be fine to take at pick 37 but he is a rookie TE and that is rarely ever a good thing. So I think he is still an avoid at this price.
I considered highlighting Montgomery as a value at this price as I would take him before I took Miles Sanders for example, but I am concerned about Tarik Cohen and also Fields being a running QB so maybe not looking to dump off to the RB as much. So I won't say he is a value here because of that downside.
I think CeeDee Lamb might be a top 12 WR this season so yeah a value at this price point in my view.
Round five
49 Jones, Julio TEN WR
50 Moore, D.J. CAR WR
51 Andrews, Mark BAL TE
52 Chase, Ja'Marr CIN WR
53 Hockenson, T.J. DET TE
54 Woods, Robert LAR WR
55 Gaskin, Myles MIA RB
56 Etienne, Travis JAC RB
57 Thielen, Adam MIN WR
58 Hunt, Kareem CLE RB
59 Johnson, Diontae PIT WR
60 Lockett, Tyler SEA WR
I may be just too ignorant about Myles Gaskin to value him properly. He stands out as someone I would not draft at this price point Hunt put up some good numbers with Chubb out for several games last year. He seems to be going to high considering he is a back up.
I think Chase and ETN will outperform this draft position.
Round six
61 Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB
62 Williams, Javonte DEN RB
63 Kupp, Cooper LAR WR
64 Aiyuk, Brandon SFO WR
65 Burrow, Joe CIN QB
66 Davis, Mike ATL RB
67 Hurts, Jalen PHI QB
69 Golladay, Kenny NYG WR
70 Edmonds, Chase ARI RB
71 Tannehill, Ryan TEN QB
72 Robinson, James JAC RB
The first IDP player went at pick 68 which I consider to be a signal that the top pool of offensive talent has been exhausted by this point, otherwise people wouldnt be taking top LB which are similar to WR twos in fantasy.
Hurts stands out as not belonging in the same group as Burrow or Rodgers in my opinion.
I think Mike Davis presents value at this price point. I almost highlighted Javonte WIlliams for this as well, but I expect Gordon to hold him off for a good chunk of the year.
Round seven
73 Higgins, Tee CIN WR
75 Stafford, Matthew LAR QB
76 Beckham, Odell CLE WR
77 Smith-Schuster, JuJu PIT WR
78 Brady, Tom TBB QB
79 Claypool, Chase PIT WR
80 Sutton, Courtland DEN WR
82 Goedert, Dallas PHI TE
83 Chark, D.J. JAC WR
84 Sermon, Trey SFO RB
Some more defensive players slotting in here. I don't really believe in Chark so he stands out as the suck here although Im not really excited about any of these players besides Higgins and Beckham.
Round eight
85 Smith, DeVonta PHI WR
86 Gordon, Melvin DEN RB
87 Fant, Noah DEN TE
88 Mostert, Raheem SFO RB
89 Lawrence, Trevor JAC QB
90 Jeudy, Jerry DEN WR
92 Fournette, Leonard TBB RB
93 Samuel, Deebo SFO WR
94 Carter, Michael NYJ RB
95 Thomas, Logan WAS TE
96 Cooks, Brandin HOU WR
I think Fournettes career is pretty close to being over and I won't be drafting him. Not sure if I have ever drafted him in any legue ever though.
I love Smith and I wanted to highlight him as a value at this draft position, but Hurts does worry me. So I didn't.
Round nine
97 Boyd, Tyler CIN WR
98 Jones, Ronald TBB RB
99 Gesicki, Mike MIA TE
100 Anderson, Robby CAR WR
101 Harris, Damien NEP RB
105 Waddle, Jaylen MIA WR
106 Mayfield, Baker CLE QB
There were almost as many IDP picks in this round as offensive players, which tells me that the pool of talent really has dried up by this point.
I think there are a lot of values in Boyd, Gesicki, Anderson and Harris here. I would take them ahead of some of the round seven and eight guys but I am not specifically targeting any of them either.
Round ten
109 Ryan, Matt ATL QB
110 Shenault, Laviska JAC WR
111 Landry, Jarvis CLE WR
112 Cousins, Kirk MIN QB
113 Johnson, David HOU RB
114 Tonyan, Robert GBP TE
115 Samuel, Curtis WAS WR
116 Engram, Evan NYG TE
117 Lance, Trey SFO QB
118 Tagovailoa, Tua MIA QB
119 Dillon, AJ GBP RB
120 Fields, Justin CHI QB
I am not a fan of LS. So with him and Chark as avoids I am likely looking at trying to pick up Marvin Jones much later.
Anyhow there is a start. I am curious what you all think and who specifically you think we should be avoiding at their current draft position?