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Dodds Mock Draft (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ImTheScientist
- Start date
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
May I add with his draft position I thought he drafted a GREAT team! I would love to come out that good with the 8th pick.
laughinboy_2000
Footballguy
I like the RB/WR/RB/WR drafting method for the first couple of rounds. Nice Job Dodds! 
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tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
You may.Here's my likes/dislikes:In round 1, I take Westbrook in a heartbeat. I know it's only half ppr for rbs, but like the article even mentioned, that's an extra 4-5 TDs. (Dodds took Rudi)In round 2 I go Portis, but I know that I'm higher on him than most. I certainly can't argue with Steve Smith here. In round 3 I take Housh, especially if i had Portis in round 2. However, due to taking Smith, you kind of need an RB2 here, and Benson is by far the best of what is leftover.4 - Colston -
5 - Santana Moss. I'd have gone McNabb, but this isn't bad. He doesn't catch enough balls for me in a ppr. Just missed Reggie Brown here, who I'd have loved.6 - Julius Jones. Just missed Ahman Green, who I'd have loved also. Jones is a nice consolation. Would have considered Shockey here as well.7 - Terry Glenn. 
Robbery here. Very underrated.8 - Greg Jennings. Meh. I will say that I love that he didn't take a TE here. There's a can of about 5-6 of them left right now that are about even. Let someone else open it up and just take whoever is left in the next round.9 - Jason Witten. Exactly.10 - Balt D. VBD at it's finest. Would have liked Kitna here a lot also. 11 - Matt Leinart. Eh. 12 - Brandon Marshall. eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee13 - Alex Smith, QB. Decent backup with a stable job and upside. boring after that.If you can look at a draft after it's over and make your ideal draft knowing everything that you know then, and still have about half the picks be the same, I'd say that's pretty good. It's very easy to say this after the fact, but I'd have liked this team better had I know what we know now:QB McNabb, LeinartRB Westbrook, Portis, Julius Jones, Chris BrownWR Housh, Colston, Glenn, Marshall, Drew CarterTE WittenD Miami
Frenchy Fuqua
Footballguy
Rudi at 8 overall in this format was a bad pick. Westbrook was the way to go without a doubt.
bcr8f
Footballguy
Round One
1.01. Mike Sheets, Rototimes – LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers RB
1.02. Tom Kessenich, NFFC – Steven Jackson, Rams RB
1.03. Roger Rotter, FoxSports – Shaun Alexander, Seahawks RB
1.04. Pasko Varnica, Creative Sports –Larry Johnson, Chiefs RB
1.05. Brandon Funston, Yahoo – Frank Gore, 49ers RB
1.06. Scott Engel, ESPN – Willie Parker, Steelers RB
1.07. Rotoworld – Joseph Addai, Colts RB
1.08. David Dodds, FootballGuys – Rudi Johnson, Bengals RB
1.09. Geoffrey Stein, MockDraftCentral – Brian Westbrook, Eagles RB
1.10. Rob Benetti – Travis Henry, Broncos RB
1.11. Greg Ambrosius, Krause Publications – Reggie Bush, Saints RB
1.12. Jeff Erickson, Rotowire – Laurence Maroney, Patriots RB
Round Two
2.01. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars RB
2.02. Willis McGahee, Bills RB
2.03. Chad Johnson, Bengals WR
2.04. Peyton Manning, Colts QB
2.05. Steve Smith, Panthers WR
2.06. Rotoworld – Ronnie Brown, Dolphins RB
2.07. Marvin Harrison, Colts WR
2.08. Torry Holt, Rams WR
2.09. Clinton Portis, Redskins RB
2.10. Terrell Owens, Cowboys WR
2.11. Edgerrin James, Cardinals RB
2.12. Reggie Wayne, Colts WR
Round Three
3.01. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals WR
3.02. Javon Walker, Broncos WR
3.03. Thomas Jones, Jets RB
3.04. Roy Williams, Lions WR
3.05. Marshawn Lynch, Bills RB
3.06. Deuce McAllister, Saints RB
3.07. Rotoworld – Anquan Boldin, Cardinals WR
3.08. Cedric Benson, Bears RB
3.09. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals WR
3.10. Andre Johnson, Texans WR
3.11. Donald Driver, Packers WR
3.12. Lee Evans, Bills
Round Four
4.01. Carson Palmer, Bengals QB
4.02. Randy Moss, Patriots WR
4.03. Carnell Williams, Bucs RB
4.04. Brandon Jacobs, Giants RB
4.05. Marques Colston, Saints WR
4.06. Rotoworld – Antonio Gates, Chargers TE
4.07. Plaxico Burress, Giants WR
4.08. Hines Ward, Steelers WR
4.09. Jamal Lewis, Browns RB
4.10. Adrian Peterson, Vikings RB
4.11. Deion Branch, Seahawks WR
4.12. Tom Brady, Patriots QB
1.01. Mike Sheets, Rototimes – LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers RB
1.02. Tom Kessenich, NFFC – Steven Jackson, Rams RB
1.03. Roger Rotter, FoxSports – Shaun Alexander, Seahawks RB
1.04. Pasko Varnica, Creative Sports –Larry Johnson, Chiefs RB
1.05. Brandon Funston, Yahoo – Frank Gore, 49ers RB
1.06. Scott Engel, ESPN – Willie Parker, Steelers RB
1.07. Rotoworld – Joseph Addai, Colts RB
1.08. David Dodds, FootballGuys – Rudi Johnson, Bengals RB
1.09. Geoffrey Stein, MockDraftCentral – Brian Westbrook, Eagles RB
1.10. Rob Benetti – Travis Henry, Broncos RB
1.11. Greg Ambrosius, Krause Publications – Reggie Bush, Saints RB
1.12. Jeff Erickson, Rotowire – Laurence Maroney, Patriots RB
Round Two
2.01. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars RB
2.02. Willis McGahee, Bills RB
2.03. Chad Johnson, Bengals WR
2.04. Peyton Manning, Colts QB
2.05. Steve Smith, Panthers WR
2.06. Rotoworld – Ronnie Brown, Dolphins RB
2.07. Marvin Harrison, Colts WR
2.08. Torry Holt, Rams WR
2.09. Clinton Portis, Redskins RB
2.10. Terrell Owens, Cowboys WR
2.11. Edgerrin James, Cardinals RB
2.12. Reggie Wayne, Colts WR
Round Three
3.01. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals WR
3.02. Javon Walker, Broncos WR
3.03. Thomas Jones, Jets RB
3.04. Roy Williams, Lions WR
3.05. Marshawn Lynch, Bills RB
3.06. Deuce McAllister, Saints RB
3.07. Rotoworld – Anquan Boldin, Cardinals WR
3.08. Cedric Benson, Bears RB
3.09. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals WR
3.10. Andre Johnson, Texans WR
3.11. Donald Driver, Packers WR
3.12. Lee Evans, Bills
Round Four
4.01. Carson Palmer, Bengals QB
4.02. Randy Moss, Patriots WR
4.03. Carnell Williams, Bucs RB
4.04. Brandon Jacobs, Giants RB
4.05. Marques Colston, Saints WR
4.06. Rotoworld – Antonio Gates, Chargers TE
4.07. Plaxico Burress, Giants WR
4.08. Hines Ward, Steelers WR
4.09. Jamal Lewis, Browns RB
4.10. Adrian Peterson, Vikings RB
4.11. Deion Branch, Seahawks WR
4.12. Tom Brady, Patriots QB
tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
you're looking at it wrong. even numbered rounds he has the 5th pick, not 3rd.LHUCKS said:
LHUCKS
Footballguy
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Chop_Block
Footballguy
Even in a half PPR league, Westbrook going 9 is insane. Well, that's hyperbole, but it's still odd.
Don't much like Scott Engel's picks -- and really hate Alexander with the 3rd pick from the FOXSports dude. If you don't like LJ, Gore is a more soilid pick -- SA and his ankle still worry me at 3.
ps -- while I would have gone Westy with the first pick, I think you did well here Dodds.
Don't much like Scott Engel's picks -- and really hate Alexander with the 3rd pick from the FOXSports dude. If you don't like LJ, Gore is a more soilid pick -- SA and his ankle still worry me at 3.
ps -- while I would have gone Westy with the first pick, I think you did well here Dodds.
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
Round 1: Rudi Johnson is too conservative...you're playing for 3rd place here.
Round 2: Steve Smith, exactly who I would have taken
Round 3: Benson, nice pick up here...playing to win
Round 4: Colston, I like other WRs here, but the PPG should be there
Round 5: S. Moss, solid, proven upside
Round 6: Julius Jones, interesting pick, I like a few other players more but I like the upside here
Round 7: T. Glenn, hate this pick, would've gone TE or QB
Round 8: Jennings, not a fan here either, would've gone TE or QB
More to come...
Round 2: Steve Smith, exactly who I would have taken
Round 3: Benson, nice pick up here...playing to win
Round 4: Colston, I like other WRs here, but the PPG should be there
Round 5: S. Moss, solid, proven upside
Round 6: Julius Jones, interesting pick, I like a few other players more but I like the upside here
Round 7: T. Glenn, hate this pick, would've gone TE or QB
Round 8: Jennings, not a fan here either, would've gone TE or QB
More to come...
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LHUCKS
Footballguy
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I think it was a pretty bad draft! Rudi over Westbrook in a .5 ppr is a terrible pick. Only carrying 3 RB's in 16 rounds is insane. Yes there were some good value picks in the mid to later rounds (like the Ravens pick among others)
Overall I give it a C-
Sorry, I just call 'em like I see 'em
Overall I give it a C-
Sorry, I just call 'em like I see 'em
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
If you have to rely on your 4th RB drafted you probably will not do that well....sure you find the MJD every once in awhile, but that is rare.I think it was a pretty bad draft! Rudi over Westbrook in a .5 ppr is a terrible pick. Only carrying 3 RB's in 16 rounds is insane. Yes there were some good value picks in the mid to later rounds (like the Ravens pick among others)
Overall I give it a C-
Sorry, I just call 'em like I see 'em
bostonfred
Footballguy
I'm fine with passing on Westbrook there. Personally, I would have taken Reggie Bush over Rudi, but I'm fine with the Rudi pick, too.
Westbrook has been huge in PPR or 1/2 PPR leagues when healthy, but even healthy he's not that much better than the guy Dodds took or Bush that I'd call it a mistake. I actually think it's smart to shy away from an injury prone running back in a best ball format, even though he might score more points over the course of the year.
I'm shocked and shuked that Bush went 1.11 in a 1/2 PPR league. Maybe I'm too high on him, but that seems like highway robbery to me.
Westbrook has been huge in PPR or 1/2 PPR leagues when healthy, but even healthy he's not that much better than the guy Dodds took or Bush that I'd call it a mistake. I actually think it's smart to shy away from an injury prone running back in a best ball format, even though he might score more points over the course of the year.
I'm shocked and shuked that Bush went 1.11 in a 1/2 PPR league. Maybe I'm too high on him, but that seems like highway robbery to me.
LHUCKS
Footballguy
Oops...didn't realize this was best ball...that changes things.
I would rather rely on my 4th RB then pray that neither of my first two miss any time and have to rely on a guy in a RBBC as my starter every week.I've been playing this game for a lot of years and have won several championships. I have never left a draft or mock with less than 5 RB's.If you have to rely on your 4th RB drafted you probably will not do that well....sure you find the MJD every once in awhile, but that is rare.I think it was a pretty bad draft! Rudi over Westbrook in a .5 ppr is a terrible pick. Only carrying 3 RB's in 16 rounds is insane. Yes there were some good value picks in the mid to later rounds (like the Ravens pick among others)
Overall I give it a C-
Sorry, I just call 'em like I see 'em
How many times are you going to rely on your WR7?? I'm just saying I would have more RB's and less WR's because there is more likely going to be a WR on waivers than a RB.
Bad draft aside from a few value picks. I was being generous giving it a C- I was strongly considering a D
Sorry Dodds!! You usually have good insight, but I think you missed this time.
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duaneok66
Footballguy
I agree with gferrell . . .Benson at 3.08 is $Why not Gates in the early fourth round?
ceo3west
Footballguy
Everyone in here seems to love Westbrook. Count me out. I want a safe pick with my first rounder, as titles are not won in the first round. Westbrook is not a safe pick. I agree with Dodds' pick - Rudi is as safe as they come.I think it was a pretty bad draft! Rudi over Westbrook in a .5 ppr is a terrible pick. Only carrying 3 RB's in 16 rounds is insane. Yes there were some good value picks in the mid to later rounds (like the Ravens pick among others)Overall I give it a C-
duaneok66
Footballguy
why don't you like Westbrook??Everyone in here seems to love Westbrook. Count me out. I want a safe pick with my first rounder, as titles are not won in the first round. Westbrook is not a safe pick. I agree with Dodds' pick - Rudi is as safe as they come.I think it was a pretty bad draft! Rudi over Westbrook in a .5 ppr is a terrible pick. Only carrying 3 RB's in 16 rounds is insane. Yes there were some good value picks in the mid to later rounds (like the Ravens pick among others)Overall I give it a C-
duaneok66
Footballguy
Lynch goes before Benson; that's comical . . .I agree with gferrell . . .Benson at 3.08 is $Why not Gates in the early fourth round?
LHUCKS
Footballguy
bestball/.5 ppr lessens the relative worth of QBs...I almost always wait on QBs in this format.
ceo3west
Footballguy
He's small and prone to injury, has never played a full season (although he played 15 g last yr..), had a career year last year and I'm not convinced he'll repeat it. Again, there are safer picks. I'd rather bank on Rudi's stats and build off of that rather then pin my title hopes on a guy that's 5-8 and has never played a full slate.why don't you like Westbrook??Everyone in here seems to love Westbrook. Count me out. I want a safe pick with my first rounder, as titles are not won in the first round. Westbrook is not a safe pick. I agree with Dodds' pick - Rudi is as safe as they come.I think it was a pretty bad draft! Rudi over Westbrook in a .5 ppr is a terrible pick. Only carrying 3 RB's in 16 rounds is insane. Yes there were some good value picks in the mid to later rounds (like the Ravens pick among others)Overall I give it a C-
duaneok66
Footballguy
all things are open to interpretation . . .everyone calls Rudi safe, and I wont bring it up in detail here because of the other long thread about it, but Irons IS a threat to steal carries . . .He's small and prone to injury, has never played a full season (although he played 15 g last yr..), had a career year last year and I'm not convinced he'll repeat it. Again, there are safer picks. I'd rather bank on Rudi's stats and build off of that rather then pin my title hopes on a guy that's 5-8 and has never played a full slate.why don't you like Westbrook??Everyone in here seems to love Westbrook. Count me out. I want a safe pick with my first rounder, as titles are not won in the first round. Westbrook is not a safe pick. I agree with Dodds' pick - Rudi is as safe as they come.I think it was a pretty bad draft! Rudi over Westbrook in a .5 ppr is a terrible pick. Only carrying 3 RB's in 16 rounds is insane. Yes there were some good value picks in the mid to later rounds (like the Ravens pick among others)Overall I give it a C-
Nemesis Enforcer
Footballguy
Can someone explain to me the logic in the writer's statement "I chose Boldin over Johnson because its a PPR league" Didn't AJ have 103 receptions last season? Wouldn't that make him more valuable in PPR leagues since he catches a ton of passes and is the only true threat in the passing game? Maybe I am missing something here.
The Kansas Comet
Footballguy
That confused me as well - I thought he had it backwards except for the fact he drafted Boldin.Can someone explain to me the logic in the writer's statement "I chose Boldin over Johnson because its a PPR league" Didn't AJ have 103 receptions last season? Wouldn't that make him more valuable in PPR leagues since he catches a ton of passes and is the only true threat in the passing game? Maybe I am missing something here.
Captain Hook
Footballguy
BFred - curious as to why you think this is a best ball format? Doesn't say that Anywhere!
I like most of the players around Benson ALOT so I'm gonna go with I didn't like that pick.Rudi 1st I'm very "eh" on for PPR leagues. He's a tough one to gauge
Love the Ward pick
Bulger-4k guy great, low TDs "eh" but I'm kinda thinking why bother QB in the 5th there. THEN I see the QBs that followed and well I think those are out of order or something. Probably a sharp pick I wouldn't have done so kudos to DD but geesh what's with the QB order here.
Chris Henry...I think his RBs would hurt him on this team
DD drafts are always interesting though
David Dodds
Administrator
This isn't a best ball league. We will play it out.
I stayed up way too late the night before this thing and got a call saying, we are drafting that morning. Add to that I was unfamiliar with the drafting software and I took Rudi over Westbrook. I don't think it's a big deal, but agree that Westbrook is a slightly better pick here.
With WRs and TEs earning 1 pt per reception (and RBs only 0.5) with a league where you must play 2 RBs, 3 WRs and a flex, I decided pre-draft that I would grab a quality RB and look to hammer WRs all draft long. This also led me to draft Rudi over Westbrook as I feel Rudi is a lot more durable. I also think Rudi could be huge this year without Henry in the redzone.
Getting Steve Smith in the 2nd round was EXACTLY what I wanted to do. Aginst my projections he projects to over 282 FPs (which is huge in this format).
I felt Benson was too good of a player to pass on late in the third. I don't particularly like him, but love his situation (not in RBBC and no one else looks like a full-time RB on the roster). I see Benson getting the carries (if he stays healthy). Whether or not those carries are productive remains to be seen. But I honestly think in the late third round this pick is all upside.
Back to WRs in the 4th and I got Colston cheap in this format. He scored 222 FPs in this format last year (despite missing two games) and now is the clear #1 WR on this offense. Horn also left so the possibility of Colston improving is also there. Again I see no downside with Collston in the 4th.
Santana Moss in the 5th also was a very safe pick. I think my starting WRs are definitely the best in this league and that is exactly how I won this same league last year (grabbing a lot of quality WRs).
I am in the minority here, but I see Julius Jones as the starter in Dallas. I don't see the same role for Marion Barber either. Barber scored a ton of TDs because Parcells jammed it in every chance they could. With Wade Phillips at the helm, I expect Julius Jones will stay on the field more and the team will utilize him, TO and Witten in the redzone. I am not saying Barber will be worthless this season, but I expect Jones to have the better fantasy numbers. So depending if you agree with me or think I am wrong will dictate whether you like or hate this pick. I feel like I got a 3rd or 4th rounder in the 6th here (and I know most disagree).
With these three RBs locked up, my plan on RBs was actually to forego them until real late. The RB I believe I will eventually roster is the backup behind Jamal Lewis (as I think Lewis is on his last leg). But I doubted either Wright or Harrison would get drafted (and I was right) so I thought it was smarter to roster more known situations now and watch this through the camps. I expect to drop a WR and add this RB (who I expect will be starting before the end of the season).
Rounds 7 and 8, I added even more WRs (Glenn and Jennings). Again this is 1 point per reception in a league where I get to play 4 WRs each week. When bye weeks hit other teams, these quality players should help my team a lot in this format. I think both of these players were value picks this late.
I nailed the TE I love in round 9 (Jason Witten) and expect big things with Wade Phillips in town. I expect Witten to catch about the same number of balls, but featured in the redzone a lot.
I contemplated taking Baltimore in this format as early as the 8th round so was ecstatic to get them in the 10th. Scoring for defenses is wild in this format and favors teams that yield few points. Baltimore projects to nearly 180 FPs so this was a great value pick this late in the draft (even though I rarely take a defense this early).
I chose my first QB in the 11th, but think Leinart will do fine in this format.
Brandon Marshall will either be a HUGE STUD or a HUGE FAILURE this season in my opinion. He has skills, but also has off-the-field issues and lacks maturity. But in the 12th round I took him for the upside. If he pasn out, I easily see trading one of my bigger name WRs (with a RB) to upgrade that position. This was my thought as I made the selection.
I always do a full glance over at my roster in the 13th and examine where I am vulnerable. QB looked real soft so I took Alex Smith here and then Rex Grossman in the 16th. None of my QBs are great, but I expect to be able to use QBBC and play matchups for good results.
My 14th round selection of Bobby Wade makes zero sense here and was drafted more as a placeholder because I didn't like the RBs left.
I was able to get the kicker I wanted in the 15th (Shayne Graham) and like the fact that I have both the RB and kicker here. Rudi fails to punch it in and I still get the kicker points. This should give me steady scoring in most weeks.
Overall I would give this draft an A-. For those stating I got a C-, I must be missing something. Westbrook would likely be a slight upgrade, but Rudi is solid (with virtually no downside). I could use another RB, but expect to upgrade that position either via the waiver wire or by trading (since I have the deepest WR core by far). I have the best WRs. I got a value TE. I have a top 3 defense and kicker. My QBBC is solid and should work good as I alternate against the matchups.
Here is my complete roster (12 team league, RB PPR=0.5, WR/TE PPR = 1, all TDs = 6):
QB Matt Leinart (11.08)
QB Alex Smith (13.08)
QB Rex Grossman (16.05)
RB Rudi Johnson (1.08)
RB Cedric Benson (3.08)
RB Julius Jones (6.05)
WR Steve Smith (2.05)
WR Marques Colston (4.05)
WR Santana Moss (5.08)
WR Terry Glenn (7.08)
WR Greg Jennings (8.05)
WR Brandon Marshall (12.05)
WR Bobby Wade (14.05)
TE Jason Witten (9.08)
PK Shayne Graham (15.08)
Def Baltimore (10.05)
I stayed up way too late the night before this thing and got a call saying, we are drafting that morning. Add to that I was unfamiliar with the drafting software and I took Rudi over Westbrook. I don't think it's a big deal, but agree that Westbrook is a slightly better pick here.
With WRs and TEs earning 1 pt per reception (and RBs only 0.5) with a league where you must play 2 RBs, 3 WRs and a flex, I decided pre-draft that I would grab a quality RB and look to hammer WRs all draft long. This also led me to draft Rudi over Westbrook as I feel Rudi is a lot more durable. I also think Rudi could be huge this year without Henry in the redzone.
Getting Steve Smith in the 2nd round was EXACTLY what I wanted to do. Aginst my projections he projects to over 282 FPs (which is huge in this format).
I felt Benson was too good of a player to pass on late in the third. I don't particularly like him, but love his situation (not in RBBC and no one else looks like a full-time RB on the roster). I see Benson getting the carries (if he stays healthy). Whether or not those carries are productive remains to be seen. But I honestly think in the late third round this pick is all upside.
Back to WRs in the 4th and I got Colston cheap in this format. He scored 222 FPs in this format last year (despite missing two games) and now is the clear #1 WR on this offense. Horn also left so the possibility of Colston improving is also there. Again I see no downside with Collston in the 4th.
Santana Moss in the 5th also was a very safe pick. I think my starting WRs are definitely the best in this league and that is exactly how I won this same league last year (grabbing a lot of quality WRs).
I am in the minority here, but I see Julius Jones as the starter in Dallas. I don't see the same role for Marion Barber either. Barber scored a ton of TDs because Parcells jammed it in every chance they could. With Wade Phillips at the helm, I expect Julius Jones will stay on the field more and the team will utilize him, TO and Witten in the redzone. I am not saying Barber will be worthless this season, but I expect Jones to have the better fantasy numbers. So depending if you agree with me or think I am wrong will dictate whether you like or hate this pick. I feel like I got a 3rd or 4th rounder in the 6th here (and I know most disagree).
With these three RBs locked up, my plan on RBs was actually to forego them until real late. The RB I believe I will eventually roster is the backup behind Jamal Lewis (as I think Lewis is on his last leg). But I doubted either Wright or Harrison would get drafted (and I was right) so I thought it was smarter to roster more known situations now and watch this through the camps. I expect to drop a WR and add this RB (who I expect will be starting before the end of the season).
Rounds 7 and 8, I added even more WRs (Glenn and Jennings). Again this is 1 point per reception in a league where I get to play 4 WRs each week. When bye weeks hit other teams, these quality players should help my team a lot in this format. I think both of these players were value picks this late.
I nailed the TE I love in round 9 (Jason Witten) and expect big things with Wade Phillips in town. I expect Witten to catch about the same number of balls, but featured in the redzone a lot.
I contemplated taking Baltimore in this format as early as the 8th round so was ecstatic to get them in the 10th. Scoring for defenses is wild in this format and favors teams that yield few points. Baltimore projects to nearly 180 FPs so this was a great value pick this late in the draft (even though I rarely take a defense this early).
I chose my first QB in the 11th, but think Leinart will do fine in this format.
Brandon Marshall will either be a HUGE STUD or a HUGE FAILURE this season in my opinion. He has skills, but also has off-the-field issues and lacks maturity. But in the 12th round I took him for the upside. If he pasn out, I easily see trading one of my bigger name WRs (with a RB) to upgrade that position. This was my thought as I made the selection.
I always do a full glance over at my roster in the 13th and examine where I am vulnerable. QB looked real soft so I took Alex Smith here and then Rex Grossman in the 16th. None of my QBs are great, but I expect to be able to use QBBC and play matchups for good results.
My 14th round selection of Bobby Wade makes zero sense here and was drafted more as a placeholder because I didn't like the RBs left.
I was able to get the kicker I wanted in the 15th (Shayne Graham) and like the fact that I have both the RB and kicker here. Rudi fails to punch it in and I still get the kicker points. This should give me steady scoring in most weeks.
Overall I would give this draft an A-. For those stating I got a C-, I must be missing something. Westbrook would likely be a slight upgrade, but Rudi is solid (with virtually no downside). I could use another RB, but expect to upgrade that position either via the waiver wire or by trading (since I have the deepest WR core by far). I have the best WRs. I got a value TE. I have a top 3 defense and kicker. My QBBC is solid and should work good as I alternate against the matchups.
Here is my complete roster (12 team league, RB PPR=0.5, WR/TE PPR = 1, all TDs = 6):
QB Matt Leinart (11.08)
QB Alex Smith (13.08)
QB Rex Grossman (16.05)
RB Rudi Johnson (1.08)
RB Cedric Benson (3.08)
RB Julius Jones (6.05)
WR Steve Smith (2.05)
WR Marques Colston (4.05)
WR Santana Moss (5.08)
WR Terry Glenn (7.08)
WR Greg Jennings (8.05)
WR Brandon Marshall (12.05)
WR Bobby Wade (14.05)
TE Jason Witten (9.08)
PK Shayne Graham (15.08)
Def Baltimore (10.05)
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David Dodds
Administrator
Against my projections, Smith + Benson is way better than Portis and HousmandzadehSmith = 282.9 FPsBenson = 189.6 FPsPortis = 180.7 FPsHousmandzadeh = 238.6 FPsI can't stress enough how important WRs are in this format. 12 teams. Must start 3 WRs + a flex. Most people are going to have to play 4 WRs because of the scrubs left at RB2 spot. This really holds true through the bye weeks. This team is built around having a consistent RB (Rudi) who safely puts up points every week while having STUDS at WR. I can easily get a RB who will contribute 7-9 FPs per game off the waiver wire (which will cost me about 3-5 FPs at the RB2 position I estimate). Try finding a receiver that will only cost you that after 70+ WRs are drafted. 16 team leagues where you start up to 4 Wrs (and where the WR gets 1 PPR), the draft changes to WR needs after everyone gets a back. I feel I was one of the few teams that really capitalized on this. Another suggested I should have taken McNabb in the 5th. Against my projections, Leainart will score 280.8 FPs while McNabb will get 287.7 FPs. Even if I grossly under-estimate what McNabb does here, I can't justify taking and QB not named Manning, Palmer, or Brady before round 7. This format just does not require a good QB at all. I prefer getting three starters and playing the matchups. I won this league last year drafting Alex Smith and Chris Simms and having Alex Smith, Jay Cutler and Vince Young at the end by being aggressive on waivers (getting Young and Cutler weeks earlier than they started).
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
to Doug getting a plug.tribecalledjeff
Footballguy
Obviously when you argue using your own projections, you are going to win. I would certainly hope that you didn't draft players who you didn't project to do well. Are you forgetting about PPG? I ask this especially in reference to McNabb. He averaged 23ppg last year, right up there with Peyton and about 3ppg higher than anybody else. I can only assume that you don't trust that he'll be healthy, which is fine. But I really like the hear reasons for your projections, not just numbers. Regarding Smith/Benson vs. Housh/Portis... Housh and S. Smith were nearly identical last year. Housh has been on a steady upward climb his whole career, and Henry is not there anymore so he stands to get even more targets. To me those guys are almost a wash, and Housh becomes by far the value play since he's available a full round later that early in the draft. And count me in the camp that sees Portis as the primary back and a steal this year. He was (justifiably) talked about as a top 3 back last year, gets hurt, and now people are way down on him. Sure Betts did well, but that just tells me that Portis will do better. Betts was horrible at the goal line, and doesn't have the game breaking ability of Portis. A healthy Portis will be extremely difficult to take off of the field. I'm not sure why you used the argument of needing more WRs in this format (which I agree with) here, since either Smith/Benson or Housh/Portis both give you 1 RB and 1 WR. I think that you could have come out of this with Westbrook, Housh, and Portis, all of whom will perform like first rounders.
David Dodds
Administrator
I guess I am not as sold on McNabb as you are. He is someone I am probably overly harsh on, but just don't trust him to stay healthy at all. I agree he is beter than Leainart in PPG, but I still wouldn't consider him even remotely close to a fifth rounder in this format. I am completely fine with the little I paid on QBs and believe they will do great.
I think our difference here is player worth. I see Portis sharing the field with Ladell Betts (I doubt you do) so I actually like Benson better than Portis straight up. You see Portis as a possible 1st rounder. I see Benson as that as well. I wouldn't take him there, but love his upside in the third round. I see Steve Smith being elite this year with Keyshawn leaving (Drew Carter and Dwayne Jarrett will catch passes, but Smith will be the primary redzone target IMO). I agree that Housh would have been a great 3rd round pick and had Benson not been there I likely would have selected him there.
Because I think Steve Smith is by far the best WR on the board this year. There was no guarantee if I took Portis in the second round that Housmandzadeh would have been there anyway. And since I rate Benson over Portis straight up, this was never a consideration. I took Smith without hesitation (He was #7 overall on my VBD board I think). Once I had what I believe is the best WR, the Benson pick made the most sense to me in the third. This draft happened a few weeks ago, but I remember consider Housmandzadeh here too (but was afraid of what my RB2 would end up as).
I will concede Westbrook as better than Rudi. I think it's quite close and Rudi might be more consistent, but I will conceed Westbrook will outperform him. You and I disagree on the value of these other 4 players. I expect Smith + Benson to crush Portis and Housmandzadeh. I doubt either of us will be able to convince the other here so I will just agree to disagree.
1huskerfan
Footballguy
His durability is a HUGE issue and he drove me nuts last year. In back-to-back weeks, he was ruled inactive at the last minute (not in time for me to change my line up, lost by 3) followed by getting a start tthe following week, after being listed doubtful all week (nice 40 points on my bench). Rudi is a consistent top 10 back over the last 4-5 years. I'll take consistency the first 3-4 rounds and swing for the fences in the mid-to-late-rounds.Everyone in here seems to love Westbrook. Count me out. I want a safe pick with my first rounder, as titles are not won in the first round. Westbrook is not a safe pick. I agree with Dodds' pick - Rudi is as safe as they come.I think it was a pretty bad draft! Rudi over Westbrook in a .5 ppr is a terrible pick. Only carrying 3 RB's in 16 rounds is insane. Yes there were some good value picks in the mid to later rounds (like the Ravens pick among others)Overall I give it a C-Sorry, I just call 'em like I see 'em
Didn't like your darft at all on first read, but after thinking about it, I like it except for Rudi. There were better options in the first.
twitch
Footballguy
DD-
I think your draft was fairly solid overall. I know this was a mock, but Ill approach this as the real thing.
RBs
I really hope you get a career year out of Rudi this year. He's been stuck in a 12TD RUT for 3 yrs now. This year he needs to take that next step that consistent, elite backs in elite Os take.....18-20TDs. I buy your logic that without Chris Henry around as that 3rd dimension redzone target, we'll probably see Rudi score a few more. But this is a prolific O, with its QB a year removed from a major injury after looking very good last year. At 28, Rudi is smack in the prime of his career. And, imo, its a make or break year for Marvin Lewis as the Bengals coach, so Id expect extreme effort from many of the players on this team who love Marv. Rudi is one of them. Benson is basically unproven as a feature back, so I view that RB2 choice as a bit of a risk, but he has 1400 and 14 potential. Not a great guy for a 1/2PPR because I dont think he'll do much as a receiver, but could put up grinder type #s, ala Rudi. You'll need him to. I like Julius Jones this season in a contract year. We know he'll be trying real hard. And with that buffoon Parcells gone (I know a little harsh, but his old-schoolness was wearing me out) , and with it that idiotic goalline RB mentality among other things, Jones will probably score a few more TDs. Im expecting very solid overall production from him. So, I really like your 3 RBs, even though its a short list (4 would have been nice). Two of them play on teams with great D, and one plays in an elite O. What everyone needs to fully realize is that it just doesnt get much harder than drafting out of the 8 hole in a 12 team league. Getting Rudi there isnt wowing anyone because we'd all expect for you to be looking for the next Steven Jackson. But you wanted reliablity, and I think youve got it. Just make sure you find this year's MJ-D on the wire.
WRs
You are completely stacked at WR, imo, spefically for a 12 team redraft. Starting 3 every week, and having 4 very good options, 3 of which are virtual nobrainers, is a luxury youre likely to share with noone else in that league. Santana as a 3rd this year WITHOUT derilect Brunell stumbling around looking to escape with his life before falling down and spraining his ankle is brilliant. They'll actually have a nice young QB this year who's tall in the pocket and can get the ball downfield. Moss is a perfect compliment to Smith and Colston.....a homerun hitter who will have weeks without being a major factor, but weeks where he'll win games almost singlehandedly. Colston needs to emerge as a true #1, though. I know he's looking like a lights out Anquan Boldin type, somewhat out of nowhere #1, but he needs to prove he can handle the doubles and help elevate this O. I expect at his size he can, but you never know. Strange things can happen that 2nd year. Im not sure I agree with you that Smith would rank 7th overall for VBD, but youre the expert so Ill trust your opinion. And, imo, as is the case with Marvin Lewis in Cinci, I really think this is a big year in Carolina for John Fox. That team underachived badly last year, and another similar season will have him looking for work. So, I expect him to produce a winning team this year, and if throwing out that conservative gameplan to a degree is a part of that, then so be it. Keyshawn was a friggin' absolute hinderance with this club last year. Good riddance to him....Im pretty sure Smith feels the same way. Most guys in a 12 teamer would settle for Glenn as a 3rd WR, or even a 2nd in some cases. Having a 1000yd receiver as a 4th is flat getting it done. Good job.
QBs
You must really like Leinart this year. I know I do. He's a little risky having not really produced yet, but Ive got him pegged as a Manning type fantasy performer long term, and Manning came out putting up #s immediately...he just had the luxury of starting straight out of the gate. Not quite the case with Leinart, but this season he's giving you yards in the 4000 neighborhood and atleast 25TDs. The golden rule for top tier fantasy QB production is the guy needs targets...atleast one stud. Leinart has 2. And in an offensive minded division?? I love this pick for you. I remember drafting Carson Palmer 2 years ago in the 9th round as my QB1 and getting laughed at. I did a little laughing later. Youll do the same this year. I like Grossman a little more as a lead backup than Smith. But when the weather breaks in winter, he won't give you much. So Im sure you'll look to utilize his matchups early. You didnt snag a Brady, Brees or Hasselbeck, but you did get yourself a top 5 QB, imo.
Remaining Starters/Fliers
Im not sure how your scoring rewards D production, but it shouldnt matter. Whoever has Baltimore's D in a league is usually a pain in the tail. That's just significant supplemental scoring that most other teams wont be able to lean on. You will. I like how you rounded out your starters with this D and Witten as a TE and the Bengals K. That 2nd tier of TEs is always somewhat of a blindluck crapshoot, but Witten has as much 8TD potential as any of them. You are a little loaded with Cowboys this year, even though I know 2 of the 3 are not even starters for you at this point. But you know with injuries and byes factoring in, they will be at some point. And as for the K, its always a strange luxury having a K as an insurance policy in case your lead RB isnt able to pound it into the endzone at the goalline or the drive stalls short. In a prolific O, thats a formula I favor. As for some of your fliers, I like Brandon Marshall's potential. Old man river Rod Smith might finally need some relief. If Marshall can just crack that lineup and get some regular looks, he could shine. He'll never get doubles with Walker on the opposite side, and with Stokley in the slot, he'll often get flat overlooked. Jennings could put up #s. I might have passed on Wade and taken another RB flier at that point. Maybe a Brian Leonard or even a backup TE like Heath Miller would have been nice.
Overall, I like what youve done. Id grade it as a solid B. Definitely not an A because youre backs arent strong enough on paper, but certainly not a C-. You'll really need a strong showing from Rudi and Benson this year....goes without saying. But if you get 15ish TD production from Rudi and double digit TD scoring from Cedric, then you'll be right in the thick of it. good luck with this one.
I think your draft was fairly solid overall. I know this was a mock, but Ill approach this as the real thing.
RBs
I really hope you get a career year out of Rudi this year. He's been stuck in a 12TD RUT for 3 yrs now. This year he needs to take that next step that consistent, elite backs in elite Os take.....18-20TDs. I buy your logic that without Chris Henry around as that 3rd dimension redzone target, we'll probably see Rudi score a few more. But this is a prolific O, with its QB a year removed from a major injury after looking very good last year. At 28, Rudi is smack in the prime of his career. And, imo, its a make or break year for Marvin Lewis as the Bengals coach, so Id expect extreme effort from many of the players on this team who love Marv. Rudi is one of them. Benson is basically unproven as a feature back, so I view that RB2 choice as a bit of a risk, but he has 1400 and 14 potential. Not a great guy for a 1/2PPR because I dont think he'll do much as a receiver, but could put up grinder type #s, ala Rudi. You'll need him to. I like Julius Jones this season in a contract year. We know he'll be trying real hard. And with that buffoon Parcells gone (I know a little harsh, but his old-schoolness was wearing me out) , and with it that idiotic goalline RB mentality among other things, Jones will probably score a few more TDs. Im expecting very solid overall production from him. So, I really like your 3 RBs, even though its a short list (4 would have been nice). Two of them play on teams with great D, and one plays in an elite O. What everyone needs to fully realize is that it just doesnt get much harder than drafting out of the 8 hole in a 12 team league. Getting Rudi there isnt wowing anyone because we'd all expect for you to be looking for the next Steven Jackson. But you wanted reliablity, and I think youve got it. Just make sure you find this year's MJ-D on the wire.
WRs
You are completely stacked at WR, imo, spefically for a 12 team redraft. Starting 3 every week, and having 4 very good options, 3 of which are virtual nobrainers, is a luxury youre likely to share with noone else in that league. Santana as a 3rd this year WITHOUT derilect Brunell stumbling around looking to escape with his life before falling down and spraining his ankle is brilliant. They'll actually have a nice young QB this year who's tall in the pocket and can get the ball downfield. Moss is a perfect compliment to Smith and Colston.....a homerun hitter who will have weeks without being a major factor, but weeks where he'll win games almost singlehandedly. Colston needs to emerge as a true #1, though. I know he's looking like a lights out Anquan Boldin type, somewhat out of nowhere #1, but he needs to prove he can handle the doubles and help elevate this O. I expect at his size he can, but you never know. Strange things can happen that 2nd year. Im not sure I agree with you that Smith would rank 7th overall for VBD, but youre the expert so Ill trust your opinion. And, imo, as is the case with Marvin Lewis in Cinci, I really think this is a big year in Carolina for John Fox. That team underachived badly last year, and another similar season will have him looking for work. So, I expect him to produce a winning team this year, and if throwing out that conservative gameplan to a degree is a part of that, then so be it. Keyshawn was a friggin' absolute hinderance with this club last year. Good riddance to him....Im pretty sure Smith feels the same way. Most guys in a 12 teamer would settle for Glenn as a 3rd WR, or even a 2nd in some cases. Having a 1000yd receiver as a 4th is flat getting it done. Good job.
QBs
You must really like Leinart this year. I know I do. He's a little risky having not really produced yet, but Ive got him pegged as a Manning type fantasy performer long term, and Manning came out putting up #s immediately...he just had the luxury of starting straight out of the gate. Not quite the case with Leinart, but this season he's giving you yards in the 4000 neighborhood and atleast 25TDs. The golden rule for top tier fantasy QB production is the guy needs targets...atleast one stud. Leinart has 2. And in an offensive minded division?? I love this pick for you. I remember drafting Carson Palmer 2 years ago in the 9th round as my QB1 and getting laughed at. I did a little laughing later. Youll do the same this year. I like Grossman a little more as a lead backup than Smith. But when the weather breaks in winter, he won't give you much. So Im sure you'll look to utilize his matchups early. You didnt snag a Brady, Brees or Hasselbeck, but you did get yourself a top 5 QB, imo.
Remaining Starters/Fliers
Im not sure how your scoring rewards D production, but it shouldnt matter. Whoever has Baltimore's D in a league is usually a pain in the tail. That's just significant supplemental scoring that most other teams wont be able to lean on. You will. I like how you rounded out your starters with this D and Witten as a TE and the Bengals K. That 2nd tier of TEs is always somewhat of a blindluck crapshoot, but Witten has as much 8TD potential as any of them. You are a little loaded with Cowboys this year, even though I know 2 of the 3 are not even starters for you at this point. But you know with injuries and byes factoring in, they will be at some point. And as for the K, its always a strange luxury having a K as an insurance policy in case your lead RB isnt able to pound it into the endzone at the goalline or the drive stalls short. In a prolific O, thats a formula I favor. As for some of your fliers, I like Brandon Marshall's potential. Old man river Rod Smith might finally need some relief. If Marshall can just crack that lineup and get some regular looks, he could shine. He'll never get doubles with Walker on the opposite side, and with Stokley in the slot, he'll often get flat overlooked. Jennings could put up #s. I might have passed on Wade and taken another RB flier at that point. Maybe a Brian Leonard or even a backup TE like Heath Miller would have been nice.
Overall, I like what youve done. Id grade it as a solid B. Definitely not an A because youre backs arent strong enough on paper, but certainly not a C-. You'll really need a strong showing from Rudi and Benson this year....goes without saying. But if you get 15ish TD production from Rudi and double digit TD scoring from Cedric, then you'll be right in the thick of it. good luck with this one.
I like these two for FF this year.
I'm betting this is one of your first WW guys, maybe for the Browns backup RB. Curious why you like them? Jamal's injury history I understand but those 2, production wise, weren't much in 06. You just thinking opportunity?
The receptions would bug me because it's a 1st round pick but otherwise, as I mentioned previously, I agree he's a stud.
Interesting take on Jones/Barber. I don't think you're wrong but I don't think Jones can handle it esp if he gets LT2 like touch totals. In regard to RBs I think Wade should just roll with how Parcells did it as it worked very well. However, I imagine "fixing something that isn't broken" here too. Starting RB in the 6th is pretty sweet
Can you explain why you think Moss is "safe"? Injury history and QBs, that word doesn't seem to fit for me. His production increases or decreases 6-700 yards each year. Are you just guessing it's an up year?
I'm of the Glenn plays best under Parcells crowd. I like Jennings alot but wish they'd just get rid of Ferguson instead of waiting til he gets hurt every year. Wade, had to pick a Minny WR huh? That's how I felt in a few drafts...worth a shot isn't it?
Like each of these alot
ScottNorwood
Footballcutie
Doddsy, how could you let JP Losman slip to the 13th round? You should've been all over that!
butcher boy
Footballguy
I'm not sure I agree with the Rudi pick in round 1, but I definitely agree with passing on Westbrook. Last year he was questionable for what seemed like every week, and he was getting his knee drained constantly for the pain. Twice in his career he's been on injured reserve in December, when you need your first round pick the most. Also, this year the Eagles have the 5th toughest schedule for RBs so even if he stays healthy, I would expect a downtrend to his numbers.
I'd pull the trigger on him if he were going in the mid second round like last year, but in the mid-first round? No thanks.
I'd pull the trigger on him if he were going in the mid second round like last year, but in the mid-first round? No thanks.
David Dodds
Administrator
This is how I feel about Westbrook as well. Hard not to project him for better numbers than Rudi, but I don't like the schedule nor the fact he's always getting dinged. I also am scared about McNabb this year. Westbrook also exploded last season when some of the receivers went down last year. Each by themselves doesn't dound like much, but I think he has a lot of downside for a 1st round selection.
David Dodds
Administrator
Nice writeup Twitch. Thanks for contributing. I view things very similarly. I will end this season with better backs. Once the bye weeks hit full-stride, I will be looking to trade my WR strength to secure the correct backs for the stretch run. I'll take the B for now knowing this team has a lot of potential to be an A at the end.
IM666
Footballguy
I’m honestly not bumping this to be a jerk; Or say “lol, lk at ths team!” Obviously any mock draft team that is plopped into Week 6 will look bad. There have been injuries that had to be addressed, the ww, and his fantasy schedule.
I am curious how some would handle Dodds’s team coming out of week 6. He stated he was intending on working some trades for his WRs.
I think he could have packaged Brandon Marshall and Cedric Benson for a QB. Or maybe He could have dropped Grossman for D. Anderson. I think this is a very serviceable team. Rudi and his QB situation have been rough, but if he managed to sell high, he ma have even managed to nab LJ or Peterson early on.
Thoughts?
I am curious how some would handle Dodds’s team coming out of week 6. He stated he was intending on working some trades for his WRs.
I think he could have packaged Brandon Marshall and Cedric Benson for a QB. Or maybe He could have dropped Grossman for D. Anderson. I think this is a very serviceable team. Rudi and his QB situation have been rough, but if he managed to sell high, he ma have even managed to nab LJ or Peterson early on.
Thoughts?
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
You're being kind. Dodds is a big boy, and has played in enough leagues to know that you're going to draft a stinker every once and awhile.This team is awful. His QBs busted, his RBs busted, and only Steve Smith's long TD yesterday keeps his receiving corps from being a huge disappointment. Colston looks terrible, and only Brandon Marshall has proved to be a value pick.On the bright side, Witten was a steal.IM666 said:
