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While good examples, there are far more FF studs from the 1st round than there are in subsequent rounds. Rashaun Woods just shows that every year, a good percentage (probably pretty consistent year to year) of every round is littered with busts. Just making up numbers, but probably something like 1st - 50%, 2nd - 70%, 3rd - 80%, .... 7th - 98%. Colston is mentioned, but how many of the other 31 7th round picks had an impact? Look at the 1st round and you have Cutler, Young, Leinart, Bush, Maroney and Addai (probably missing someone, just going from memory).For example at QB, for all the Tom Brady, Bulger and Delhomme examples, there are always a slew of 1st rounders like Vick, Vince Young, Manning x 2, Palmer, Leinart, Cutler, Rivers, Alex Smith, McNair, Leftwich, Roethlisberger, etc. I did a quick glance at my FF league with is a start 2 QB, so most teams are represented and 1st round QBs start on 18 of the 32 teams. That number was a quick count, but still shows my point. Even in my PPR league, 5 of the top 10 RBs were 1st rounders and of the other 5, only Willie Parker was not a 3rd round pick or higher.
Excellent points... and I certainly agree... I was just mentioning that one shouldn't cut and paste the draft listing to rank the rookies for FF purposes...As a matter of fact, I was fortunate enough to have a freelance article posted at FBG that looks at the correlation between: NFL draft rank / FF eliteness / NFL experience... to try and figure out the success rates you are mentioning above... (I can't add the link here since FBG is blocked here at work... under freelance article: Dynasty Study...)
This bolded line is what I take issue with the most. While not a perfect correlation, I would say that the draft rank and FF production are very tightly correlated. I defy anyone to bring any other measure in besides draft rank and match it up better to FF production.For 2006, 9 of the top 20 RBs were 1st rounders, 14 of the top 20 QBs were 1st rounders, and 8 of the top 20 WRs were 1st rounders. That is around 50% being 1st rounders. Without looking, I would bet good money that around 90% of all the top 20 players were 1st-3rd round picks.
That sounds pretty cool actually. I would love to read it. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see a pretty smooth statistical curve. I am sure that there are some weak and strong draft classes, but that for the most part you could predict that X% of Y round will bust or succeed.Also, it may have looked like I was picking at your post, but I do actually think that some people take 1 or 2 examples and actually believe that to prove that the draft is a "bad" indicator.
By the way, this could be a question or a suggestion, but did you happen to look at things like where the players went to college, injury history, and size/speed measurables?If you look at some of the 2nd round picks that have been studs (Tiki, Boldin, MJD, Javon Walker, Gore, the list goes on), they may have dropped due to size (Barber/MJD) or speed (Boldin/Walker) or injury concerns (Gore) but they still were selected in the 2nd/3rd because they were perceived to have talent and in the 2nd/3rd they were deemed worth the risk. We have seen in the past tremendous players like Rice and E. Smith, who didn't blow away the combine records, but just seemed to be able to translate a quickness into success.
I agree that my initial posting was making it sound like one shouldn't be using the draft at all for FF purposes... As I mentioned - it was not my purpose - far from it... (and I certainly know that an example is not a proof - stupid Applied Math Masters to attest to that
)As for the correlation - you can certainly see a tight correlation between NFL draft rank and FF eliteness... the NFL teams are spending millions in trying to figure out who to pick - they know their stuff (altough we always seem to disagree on sundays!)
I didn't look at these factors... just the plain data / not wanting to add too much subjectivity in the study... but, at first glance, it certainly would be a good idea to do so... even though I'm not sure I might be on top of all the "issues" that happened in the last ten years for example (since I had gone back to the '96 draft)...Interesting... I foresee another freelance article! <_<
That will be hard to do, but maybe easier just in the past few drafts. I tend to remember too much useless information, which is why I tend to be a more reactive poster. I unfortunately fall below the FBG average in terms of 4.3 speed and 400 pound bench pressingI didn't look at these factors... just the plain data / not wanting to add too much subjectivity in the study... but, at first glance, it certainly would be a good idea to do so... even though I'm not sure I might be on top of all the "issues" that happened in the last ten years for example (since I had gone back to the '96 draft)...Interesting... I foresee another freelance article!
, so I tend to think that the NFL folks know more than I do.But, when I remember things like both Boldin and Walker being 2nd round picks, meaning they were very talented, but sliding out of the first because they were considered "slow", it make me think that you might be able to measure it. A guy like Gore was plagued with injuries in college and ran a bit "slow", but he was considered talented enough to be thought highly off on a powerhouse team that had Portis and McGahee. MJD was lights out in terms of talent, but was considered too small, as were FWP, Tiki and Westbrook.Heck, even some of the all-time fantasy greats, like Emmitt, Jerry Rice, Randy Moss and Marino were middle to late 1st round picks. It just seems like there might be patterns, like slow 40 speeds, even though the guy might seem like a playmaker on the field, could be applied to guys that seem to slip into spots where they have the opportunity to start.It wouldn't surprise me at all to find out that the 1st round busts (outside injuries) tended to be guys who measured better than average but didn't seem to play like studs in college and the 2nd/3rd round surprises were guys who measured below average or not as good as hoped, but seemed to play above their supposed abilities.
Yeah, this is when opportunity really should play in to it. But not before (Eric Shelton owner
).
