Does Drew Brees get into the HOF? (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Yes, another HOF discussion.

Drew Brees has obviously been one of the most prolific passers in the game. At the same time, he's never really mentioned as the top QB in the NFL because of either Peyton or Brady or Rodgers. That said, based on what he's done so far and the storylines, does he get in at this point? If not, how much more would it take?

--4000+ yds the last 6 years in a row

--5000+ yds twice in his career (only QB to do so)

--24+ TDs the last 8 years in a row

--33+ TDs the last 4 years in a row

--Most passing yards in a single season with 5476 yards (along with 46 TDs)

--6 Pro Bowls

--1 All-Pro

--1 Super Bowls win

--7th all time in passer rating, 9th in passes completed, 11th in passing yards, 9th in passing TDs, and 2nd overall all-time in completion % (career 66% completion)

The only guys in the top 15 passing yards all time that aren't in the HOF (or won't be with guys like Favre and Peyton there) are Bledsoe, Testaverde, and Kerry Collins. All of the guys ahead of him in career passing TDs are in or will be in.

So, if Drew Brees retires today, does he get into the HOF? If not, what more would he have to do to get in for you?

 

[Zeff]

Obviously.

 

[Vykng]

--2 1 Super Bowls, winning one of them

 

[Khy]

His stats are HoF caliber and he passes the Super Bowl test, so the clear answer is yes.

 

[saintfool]

duh.

 

[Soulfly3]

The better question is does Tomlinson, Manning or Brady?

 

[gianmarco]

--2 1 Super Bowls, winning one of them

Oof.....brain fart. I was thinking of the NFCC vs. the Bears.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

All day but I do attribute some of it to the system. He deserves to get in and will add another 3-5 years of nice stats going forward, Saints have some weapons around him, he's set to make it and he might appear in another Super Bowl at some point.

 

[Area51Inhabitant]

This year could go a long way to dispel any lingering doubts if he continues to put up pinball numbers without Payton calling the plays. I think he should be a slam dunk first ballot HOFer.

 

[Ghost Rider]

All day but I do attribute some of it to the system.

You do realize that Brees is largely the reason that system works, right?

 

[gianmarco]

All day but I do attribute some of it to the system.

You do realize that Brees is largely the reason that system works, right?

No kidding. And let's not kid ourselves that he's surrounded with top shelf talent. He's had to make do with the likes of Devery Henderson and Lance Moore and Robert Meachem the last few years. Even Graham only showed up last year. Aside From Marques Colston, he's had a lot of average players that he's simply elevated due to his play. And most would argue that even Colston isn't a top 15 WR in the league on any other team other than maybe GB or NE.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Actually, I would argue that Colston could put up better numbers if he was on a team where he got more targets, but I agree with everything else you said.

 

[Sweet Love]

All day but I do attribute some of it to the system. He deserves to get in and will add another 3-5 years of nice stats going forward, Saints have some weapons around him, he's set to make it and he might appear in another Super Bowl at some point.

I am a true believer in a specific system making a QB better if he were on another team, but I almost think it is Brees making the system (ala Manning and Brady) and being able to do stuff with good players, but not great ones (sans Graham). Colston is also good, but there are others like him in the league. The fact they got so much out of Henderson all these years, Moore, Pierre Thomas, Ivory and even a guy like Sproles, makes me wonder if this is due to Brees, and lesser the system.If you really want to poke at a "system", look at Shanny's zone blocking system. Between Den/Wash and Houston, the most pedigreed RB in that system was Clinton portis, and had he stayed in Denver, we would have likely left as third in career rushing yardage, if not even taking a stab at second. The fact that guys like Gary, Anderson, Torain, Dayne, Slaton, and the guys in Wash right now that rip off yardage at will, I wonder if one day we are going to be saying, "yeah he was top 5 in career rushing, but he played in a zone blocking scheme" about someone.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

All day but I do attribute some of it to the system.

You do realize that Brees is largely the reason that system works, right?

GR, I vote for him 1st ballot but understand I don't look at Brees the way I look at say Marino who I now have to categorize in an era and that makes me feel old. Marino had a better arm, quicker release, better deep ball...but Brees is far more accurate and part of that is the system. Of course Brees is the biggest part of the equation, just acknowledging that some of his gaudy stats have to do with the Saints offense.If it were all just system I wouldn't say 1st ballot.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

All day but I do attribute some of it to the system.

You do realize that Brees is largely the reason that system works, right?

No kidding. And let's not kid ourselves that he's surrounded with top shelf talent. He's had to make do with the likes of Devery Henderson and Lance Moore and Robert Meachem the last few years. Even Graham only showed up last year. Aside From Marques Colston, he's had a lot of average players that he's simply elevated due to his play. And most would argue that even Colston isn't a top 15 WR in the league on any other team other than maybe GB or NE.

Name some Hall of Fame WRs Marino threw to? The Marks Bros aren't even close.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Duper and Clayton weren't Hall of Famers, but they were awfully good. Duper made 3 Pro Bowls; Clayton made 5. Brees has never had a WR make the Pro Bowl.

 

[Sweet Love]

All day but I do attribute some of it to the system.

You do realize that Brees is largely the reason that system works, right?

No kidding. And let's not kid ourselves that he's surrounded with top shelf talent. He's had to make do with the likes of Devery Henderson and Lance Moore and Robert Meachem the last few years. Even Graham only showed up last year. Aside From Marques Colston, he's had a lot of average players that he's simply elevated due to his play. And most would argue that even Colston isn't a top 15 WR in the league on any other team other than maybe GB or NE.

Name some Hall of Fame WRs Marino threw to? The Marks Bros aren't even close.

Kirby Dar-Dar and Yatil Green down? Oh wait...they are. One of my favorite memories was reading an article of how those two became close as teammates when in the training room...I don't think they ever left.Joking aside, I think that there is a distinct difference between what Brees has had as talent versus Marino's earlier years...prior to '92, Dan threw for 25+ TDs 6 times, after he threw for over that just once. As an AFC East fan, I will be the first to say there was a distinct difference in overall team talent from the 80s to the 90s, but "the Marks" leaving/getting old, had much to do with that.

 

[Ryan99]

I don't think Brees would be in the HoF if he retired today. I see two big things against him:

1) He's playing in an era where QB numbers are exploding. His numbers are extremely good historically, but only very good compared to his contemporaries.

2) His career numbers aren't that high, since he hasn't played many seasons compared to the top QBs. He hasn't even won 100 games for instance. HoF voters tend to put a lot (way too much, imo) of emphasis on career totals, rather than seasons of dominance.

Look at his career number compared to the current QB HoF locks

Brees: 40,000 yards, 281 TD, 1 SB, 92-61 record, 6 x pro bowl, 0 x MVP

Brady: 40,000 yards, 300 TD, 3 SB, 124-35, 7 x pro bowl, 2 x MVP

Manning: 55,000 yards, 400 TD, 1 SB, 141-67, 11 x pro bowl, 4 x MVP

Its clear that Brees is not yet in the same class as these guys for his career numbers or his post season awards. Brady is a lock because of his post seasons and career record. Manning is a lock because he was the best passer or his era. Brees is neither. Maybe in the future the passing numbers come down and people come to the conclusion that the numbers were due to a lot of talent at QB and not because of fundamental changes in the league, in which case he'll get in. But if the numbers continue to rise, which I think is generally what's expected, I think Brees will just be regarded as a very good QB in an age of rapidly improving QB numbers. His passing record helps him, but there's a decent chance that will be broken soon, maybe this year.

Think of it this way ... where does Brees rank in his own era for QBs? He's definitely behind Manning and Brady. You can throw Favre in there as well, although his career overlaps with the 90s. So I would put Brees 4th. There are 23 'modern era' QBs in the HoF. Does the 4th best passer of his era deserve to be in there? Its a tough call, but even if you think yes he's definitely not a lock.

If he were to retire today, what happens with passing in the league over the next 5 years will be critically important to his chances. If Brady and Manning continue producing, Philip Rivers et al. keep getting closer to Brees' career numbers or pass them (4000 yards and 30 TDs per year over 5 years puts Rivers at 44,000 yards and 310 TDs), Brees' passing record is broken and guys like Luck come in and put up 4500 yards per year, its going to be very difficult for Brees to get in.

 

[CalBear]

Think of it this way ... where does Brees rank in his own era for QBs? He's definitely behind Manning and Brady. You can throw Favre in there as well, although his career overlaps with the 90s. So I would put Brees 4th. There are 23 'modern era' QBs in the HoF. Does the 4th best passer of his era deserve to be in there? Its a tough call, but even if you think yes he's definitely not a lock.

He's a lock. He's definitely better relative to his peers than, say, Jim Kelly, who didn't have a Super Bowl to put him over the top. The Hall loves QBs.

 

[valhallan]

I see 4 Vikings fans voted.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I don't think Brees would be in the HoF if he retired today. I see two big things against him:1) He's playing in an era where QB numbers are exploding. His numbers are extremely good historically, but only very good compared to his contemporaries.

-He's led the league in TD passes three times (and is 3rd among ALL active players right now) -He's led the league in passing yards three times (and is 3rd among ALL active players right now)In fact, neither Brady nor Manning have done both of those (both have led the league in TDs three times, but both only led the league in passing yards twice). Not having numbers as good overall as Brady or Manning is no shame. And by the time he is done playing, he will likely be 3rd or 4th all-time in career passing yardage and top 5 all-time in passing TDs. Brees is already a lock. Guaranteed.

Think of it this way ... where does Brees rank in his own era for QBs?

3rd best, easily (especially since almost all of Favre's best years were prior to Brees run).

 

[Ilov80s]

I don't think Brees would be in the HoF if he retired today. I see two big things against him:1) He's playing in an era where QB numbers are exploding. His numbers are extremely good historically, but only very good compared to his contemporaries.

-He's led the league in TD passes three times (and is 3rd among ALL active players right now) -He's led the league in passing yards three times (and is 3rd among ALL active players right now)In fact, neither Brady nor Manning have done both of those (both have led the league in TDs three times, but both only led the league in passing yards twice). Not having numbers as good overall as Brady or Manning is no shame. And by the time he is done playing, he will likely be 3rd or 4th all-time in career passing yardage and top 5 all-time in passing TDs. Brees is already a lock. Guaranteed.

Think of it this way ... where does Brees rank in his own era for QBs?

3rd best, easily (especially since almost all of Favre's best years were prior to Brees run).

Good post. He was, at worst, 3rd in his era. There is legit argument that Marino was only the 3rd best QB of his era behind Montana and Elway. Marino has the better overall numbers, but he didn't get the rings.

 

[Chase Stuart]

An undisputed first ballot HOFer. He doesn't need to be Johnny Unitas to be a first ballot HOFer. He's a borderline top-ten QB of all time.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I don't think Brees would be in the HoF if he retired today. I see two big things against him:

1) He's playing in an era where QB numbers are exploding. His numbers are extremely good historically, but only very good compared to his contemporaries.On what planet are Brees' numbers only very good compared to his contemporaries?

2) His career numbers aren't that high, since he hasn't played many seasons compared to the top QBs. He hasn't even won 100 games for instance. HoF voters tend to put a lot (way too much, imo) of emphasis on career totals, rather than seasons of dominance.

Look at his career number compared to the current QB HoF locks

Brees: 40,000 yards, 281 TD, 1 SB, 92-61 record, 6 x pro bowl, 0 x MVP

Brady: 40,000 yards, 300 TD, 3 SB, 124-35, 7 x pro bowl, 2 x MVP

Manning: 55,000 yards, 400 TD, 1 SB, 141-67, 11 x pro bowl, 4 x MVP

Its clear that Brees is not yet in the same class as these guys for his career numbers or his post season awards. Brady is a lock because of his post seasons and career record. Manning is a lock because he was the best passer or his era. Brees is neither. No, Brees isn't Brady or Manning. And to that I say, 'who cares?' Maybe in the future the passing numbers come down and people come to the conclusion that the numbers were due to a lot of talent at QB and not because of fundamental changes in the league, in which case he'll get in. But if the numbers continue to rise, which I think is generally what's expected, I think Brees will just be regarded as a very good QB in an age of rapidly improving QB numbers. His passing record helps him, but there's a decent chance that will be broken soon, maybe this year.

Think of it this way ... where does Brees rank in his own era for QBs? He's definitely behind Manning and Brady. You can throw Favre in there as well, although his career overlaps with the 90s. So I would put Brees 4th. There are 23 'modern era' QBs in the HoF. Does the 4th best passer of his era deserve to be in there? Its a tough call, but even if you think yes he's definitely not a lock.Of course the 4th best QB of his era deserves to be in there. There are about 6-8 HOF QBs playing every season.

If he were to retire today, what happens with passing in the league over the next 5 years will be critically important to his chances. If Brady and Manning continue producing, Philip Rivers et al. keep getting closer to Brees' career numbers or pass them (4000 yards and 30 TDs per year over 5 years puts Rivers at 44,000 yards and 310 TDs), Brees' passing record is broken and guys like Luck come in and put up 4500 yards per year, its going to be very difficult for Brees to get in.Brees has set a ton of records and has been an offensive monster for over half a decade. The standard for the HOF isn't being the greatest player of all time.

He's a lock.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Also worth pointing out are how insane his playoff numbers are. In 9 career playoff games:

-22 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions

-2,980 passing yards (that's 331 PER GAME)

-66.8% completion percentage

Also consider that in the Saints last six playoff games, the Saints have scored a total of 220 points in those games. That's 37 points a game. In the playoffs.

And his playoff W/L record would be better than 5-4 if his defense hadn't let him down in two of those last six games (41-36 and 36-32 losses).

 

[Ryan99]

An undisputed first ballot HOFer. He doesn't need to be Johnny Unitas to be a first ballot HOFer. He's a borderline top-ten QB of all time.

He's at best the 3rd best QB playing right now. Do you think you're just incredibly lucky that 3 of the 10 best all time QBs are playing right now? You have to evaluate guys in the era they played. And that's not even including guys that could pass Brees if he were to retire today.Remember, the question was if he retired today, would he make the HoF. In 5 years, these QBs could be past him for career passing yards and still playing:

Rivers (likely)

Eli Manning

Roethlisberger (unlikely)

Romo

Cutler

Rodgers

So its possible that when he is up for the HoF, there will be a few QBs with better numbers that are still playing, and that's not even counting Brady and Peyton, who will probably be retired in 5 years (although who knows) and by then have much better career numbers.

The earliest 'modern' QB in the HoF retired in 1952. This past year you were eligible if you retired in 2006. That's 23 QBs in 53 years, or about 4 every 10 years. If he retired now its likely he will be surrounded by 3 retired QBs with superior careers and quite a few more that are still playing. He's also never been the most important player in the league, according to the AP. At least one of those guys still playing in 5 years (Rodgers) with possibly better career numbers will have been.

As for his passing records, I expect many will be broken by the time he's Hall eligible. If that's so, having set them will not look nearly as impressive, especially if they are broken as quickly as people seem to think they will be.

In all likelihood Brees will be a lock when he retires, but to claim he's a lock right now is just not supported by the numbers. He's right on the edge in my opinion, but a lot depends on what happens with league wide passing numbers in the coming years.

 

[Ghost Rider]

At no point in the last six/seven years has any of those QBs, except for Rodgers, been considered as good or better than Brees. You can talk about numbers all you want (which are also greatly in Brees' favor), but when you have this long of a stretch where everyone considers you one of the two or three best quarterback in the league, yes, you are a lock for the Hall.

 

[Wallstreet72]

This guy belongs w/o doubt...but due to where he plays, and his notoriety I think he could easily fall into the cracks of one of those deserving, but never gets in

 

[Ryan99]

At no point in the last six/seven years has any of those QBs, except for Rodgers, been considered as good or better than Brees.

I should also point that many of Brees' great single season stats are driven by his enormous number of pass attempts, so that tends to skew things. Its far from perfect, but if you look at the season by season QB ratings, Brees has led once. Rivers and Rodgers have also led once, Brady twice, and Peyton 3 times. Rivers is an interesting comparison. I think he's underrated as a passer ... he's extremely efficient. He's led the league in yards per attempt 3 times, Brees never has. If Brees retired today and Rivers can win a Super Bowl in the next 5 years, I can easily see him being considered a superior passer when Brees is up for induction.I don't know what numbers you're looking at, but they are decidedly not "greatly in Brees' favor". Career numbers count a lot for the Hall, and if he retired right now the fact is his career will not have been that long compared to may of the greats.

 

[Ryan99]

This guy belongs w/o doubt...but due to where he plays, and his notoriety I think he could easily fall into the cracks of one of those deserving, but never gets in

Oh man, signed up just to get in on this argument huh? Anyway, howdy.If anything, I think where he plays and his notoriety would help him. He's an amazing underdog story, and winning the Super Bowl after everything that went on with Hurricane Katrina and the Superdome is the stuff of legend.

 

[Chase Stuart]

An undisputed first ballot HOFer. He doesn't need to be Johnny Unitas to be a first ballot HOFer. He's a borderline top-ten QB of all time.

He's at best the 3rd best QB playing right now. Do you think you're just incredibly lucky that 3 of the 10 best all time QBs are playing right now? You have to evaluate guys in the era they played. And that's not even including guys that could pass Brees if he were to retire today.Remember, the question was if he retired today, would he make the HoF. In 5 years, these QBs could be past him for career passing yards and still playing:

Rivers (likely)

Eli Manning

Roethlisberger (unlikely)

Romo

Cutler

Rodgers

So its possible that when he is up for the HoF, there will be a few QBs with better numbers that are still playing, and that's not even counting Brady and Peyton, who will probably be retired in 5 years (although who knows) and by then have much better career numbers.

The earliest 'modern' QB in the HoF retired in 1952. This past year you were eligible if you retired in 2006. That's 23 QBs in 53 years, or about 4 every 10 years. If he retired now its likely he will be surrounded by 3 retired QBs with superior careers and quite a few more that are still playing. He's also never been the most important player in the league, according to the AP. At least one of those guys still playing in 5 years (Rodgers) with possibly better career numbers will have been.

As for his passing records, I expect many will be broken by the time he's Hall eligible. If that's so, having set them will not look nearly as impressive, especially if they are broken as quickly as people seem to think they will be.

In all likelihood Brees will be a lock when he retires, but to claim he's a lock right now is just not supported by the numbers. He's right on the edge in my opinion, but a lot depends on what happens with league wide passing numbers in the coming years.

There are roughly 7 future HOF QBs playing in any given year. Being the most important player in the league has never been a requirement. If you think Kelly, Griese, Aikman, Moon, Fouts are getting in and not Brees, I don't know what to tell you. He's Ken Anderson with a Super Bowl ring, or Ken Stabler with elite stats. Not to mention the records he has, and it's a no brainer.

And I know the question talks about if he retires today, but it will just be more over the top once he breaks Unitas' record in a few weeks.

 

[Ghost Rider]

At no point in the last six/seven years has any of those QBs, except for Rodgers, been considered as good or better than Brees. You can talk about numbers all you want (which are also greatly in Brees' favor), but when you have this long of a stretch where everyone considers you one of the two or three best quarterback in the league, yes, you are a lock for the Hall.

I should also point that many of Brees' great single season stats are driven by his enormous number of pass attempts, so that tends to skew things. Its far from perfect, but if you look at the season by season QB ratings, Brees has led once. Rivers and Rodgers have also led once, Brady twice, and Peyton 3 times. Rivers is an interesting comparison. I think he's underrated as a passer ... he's extremely efficient. He's led the league in yards per attempt 3 times, Brees never has. If Brees retired today and Rivers can win a Super Bowl in the next 5 years, I can easily see him being considered a superior passer when Brees is up for induction.I don't know what numbers you're looking at, but they are decidedly not "greatly in Brees' favor". Career numbers count a lot for the Hall, and if he retired right now the fact is his career will not have been that long compared to may of the greats.

Brees has only led in passer rating (an overrated stat) once, but has finished 2nd or 3rd four times. Yes, the numbers are greatly in Brees' favor. Since you seem to like to focus so much on who finishes first in what, did you miss the part where I said that Brees has led the league in touchdown passes as many times as Peyton and Brady, and has led the league in passing yards more times than either of them?

Brees does have a lot of attempts, but he has finished in the top 3 in YPA three times.

Rivers has a LONG way to go before he catches Brees in most significant categories. He is already 118 touchdown passes behind Brees, and was already starting to fall off a bit last year at times, while Brees continued to put up astronomical numbers, so I'd say the odds of Rivers ever catching Brees in TD passes, yards, etc. are slim to none (especially when Brees will likely continue widening the gap in the next few years). Trust me, not a single voter will care that Rivers' YPA is a little better when Brees has a ring and is so far ahead of him in so many other important categories AND has a ring, something Rivers won't get as long as Norv is his coach. Plus, Rivers' postseason resume right now when it comes to stats is a joke compared to Brees'.

 

[Chase Stuart]

At no point in the last six/seven years has any of those QBs, except for Rodgers, been considered as good or better than Brees. You can talk about numbers all you want (which are also greatly in Brees' favor), but when you have this long of a stretch where everyone considers you one of the two or three best quarterback in the league, yes, you are a lock for the Hall.

I should also point that many of Brees' great single season stats are driven by his enormous number of pass attempts, so that tends to skew things. Its far from perfect, but if you look at the season by season QB ratings, Brees has led once. Rivers and Rodgers have also led once, Brady twice, and Peyton 3 times. Rivers is an interesting comparison. I think he's underrated as a passer ... he's extremely efficient. He's led the league in yards per attempt 3 times, Brees never has. If Brees retired today and Rivers can win a Super Bowl in the next 5 years, I can easily see him being considered a superior passer when Brees is up for induction.I don't know what numbers you're looking at, but they are decidedly not "greatly in Brees' favor". Career numbers count a lot for the Hall, and if he retired right now the fact is his career will not have been that long compared to may of the greats.

By my own ranking system, Brees ranked 1st in 2008, 2nd in '06, '09 and '1, and 4th in '04. In terms of rate statistics, he ranked in the top three in ANY/A in '06, '08, '09 and '11.Agree that Rivers is underrated; Romo is, too. But the bar is much lower than you're letting on for the HOF. Brees will instantly be in the top half of QBs in the HOF.

There are 17 HOF QBs who entered the league since 1950. He's at least better than 9 of them: Aikman, Kelly, Moon, Griese, Namath, Starr, Jurgensen, Dawson and Bradshaw.

I'd say Young, Unitas, Marino, Montana and Fouts are ahead of him if he never plays another game; most would put Elway ahead of him, too. The other 2 are Staubach and Tarkenton, and I think a lot would put Brees ahead of them, too.

Put it this way: who are the best QBs not in the HOF? Ken Anderson is the clear #1 choice, and then you've got a bunch of guys with resumes clearly inferior to Brees. Lamonica, Hadl, Brodie, Esiason, Jim Hart, Roman Gabriel, etc. Brees is clearly ahead of all of those guys. Without a SB, I'd say he runs the risk of an absurd snub, but with it, he's got a flawless resume.

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't think Brees would be in the HoF if he retired today. I see two big things against him:

1) He's playing in an era where QB numbers are exploding. His numbers are extremely good historically, but only very good compared to his contemporaries.On what planet are Brees' numbers only very good compared to his contemporaries?

2) His career numbers aren't that high, since he hasn't played many seasons compared to the top QBs. He hasn't even won 100 games for instance. HoF voters tend to put a lot (way too much, imo) of emphasis on career totals, rather than seasons of dominance.

Look at his career number compared to the current QB HoF locks

Brees: 40,000 yards, 281 TD, 1 SB, 92-61 record, 6 x pro bowl, 0 x MVP

Brady: 40,000 yards, 300 TD, 3 SB, 124-35, 7 x pro bowl, 2 x MVP

Manning: 55,000 yards, 400 TD, 1 SB, 141-67, 11 x pro bowl, 4 x MVP

Its clear that Brees is not yet in the same class as these guys for his career numbers or his post season awards. Brady is a lock because of his post seasons and career record. Manning is a lock because he was the best passer or his era. Brees is neither. No, Brees isn't Brady or Manning. And to that I say, 'who cares?' Maybe in the future the passing numbers come down and people come to the conclusion that the numbers were due to a lot of talent at QB and not because of fundamental changes in the league, in which case he'll get in. But if the numbers continue to rise, which I think is generally what's expected, I think Brees will just be regarded as a very good QB in an age of rapidly improving QB numbers. His passing record helps him, but there's a decent chance that will be broken soon, maybe this year.

Think of it this way ... where does Brees rank in his own era for QBs? He's definitely behind Manning and Brady. You can throw Favre in there as well, although his career overlaps with the 90s. So I would put Brees 4th. There are 23 'modern era' QBs in the HoF. Does the 4th best passer of his era deserve to be in there? Its a tough call, but even if you think yes he's definitely not a lock.Of course the 4th best QB of his era deserves to be in there. There are about 6-8 HOF QBs playing every season.

If he were to retire today, what happens with passing in the league over the next 5 years will be critically important to his chances. If Brady and Manning continue producing, Philip Rivers et al. keep getting closer to Brees' career numbers or pass them (4000 yards and 30 TDs per year over 5 years puts Rivers at 44,000 yards and 310 TDs), Brees' passing record is broken and guys like Luck come in and put up 4500 yards per year, its going to be very difficult for Brees to get in.Brees has set a ton of records and has been an offensive monster for over half a decade. The standard for the HOF isn't being the greatest player of all time.

He's a lock.

I was going to post a question asking what are people missing to think that he is anything but a lock. I am actually surprised that there are folks arguing against Brees being a HOFer at this point. He might be able to kill his ex-wife and her friend and still get in (unless that policy only applies to RBs).

 

[Ryan99]

Brees has only led in passer rating (an overrated stat) once, but has finished 2nd or 3rd four times. Yes, the numbers are greatly in Brees' favor. Since you seem to like to focus so much on who finishes first in what, did you miss the part where I said that Brees has led the league in touchdown passes as many times as Peyton and Brady, and has led the league in passing yards more times than either of them? Brees does have a lot of attempts, but he has finished in the top 3 in YPA three times. Rivers has a LONG way to go before he catches Brees in most significant categories. He is already 118 touchdown passes behind Brees, and was already starting to fall off a bit last year at times, while Brees continued to put up astronomical numbers, so I'd say the odds of Rivers ever catching Brees in TD passes, yards, etc. are slim to none (especially when Brees will likely continue widening the gap in the next few years). Trust me, not a single voter will care that Rivers' YPA is a little better when Brees has a ring and is so far ahead of him in so many other important categories AND has a ring, something Rivers won't get as long as Norv is his coach. Plus, Rivers' postseason resume right now when it comes to stats is a joke compared to Brees'.

So, I think you'r missing the part of the question where its stipulated that Brees is retiring right now. Yes Rivers is over 100 TDs behind; this gap will inexorably shorten. You don't think Rivers will throw for 25 TDs per year for 5 years? He's averaged 4400 yards and almost 30 TDs per year over the past 4 years, and the passing trend in the NFL is clearly upwards. So no, Brees will not be "so far ahead of him in so many other important categories". In fact he would in all likelihood be behind Rivers, as well as behind Rodgers and possibly a few other guys. And he's already behind Manning, Brady and Favre (Favre only retired a year ago so I'm including him, but understand the argument to not include him).

 

[Ryan99]

By my own ranking system, Brees ranked 1st in 2008, 2nd in '06, '09 and '1, and 4th in '04. In terms of rate statistics, he ranked in the top three in ANY/A in '06, '08, '09 and '11.

Agree that Rivers is underrated; Romo is, too. But the bar is much lower than you're letting on for the HOF. Brees will instantly be in the top half of QBs in the HOF.

There are 17 HOF QBs who entered the league since 1950. He's at least better than 9 of them: Aikman, Kelly, Moon, Griese, Namath, Starr, Jurgensen, Dawson and Bradshaw.

I'd say Young, Unitas, Marino, Montana and Fouts are ahead of him if he never plays another game; most would put Elway ahead of him, too. The other 2 are Staubach and Tarkenton, and I think a lot would put Brees ahead of them, too.

Put it this way: who are the best QBs not in the HOF? Ken Anderson is the clear #1 choice, and then you've got a bunch of guys with resumes clearly inferior to Brees. Lamonica, Hadl, Brodie, Esiason, Jim Hart, Roman Gabriel, etc. Brees is clearly ahead of all of those guys. Without a SB, I'd say he runs the risk of an absurd snub, but with it, he's got a flawless resume.

Somewhere I was looking at a 'best QBs ever' list and they had him 10th, so that seems to agree with you. The thing I keep coming back to is that, although his numbers look very good right now, they might not look as impressive in 5 years when he's eligible. If things keep on going the way they're going, we could have 3 or 4 active QBs with equivalent career numbers, along with Brady, Manning and Favre.Right now he has the 3rd best career of active QBs. But by the time some other guys retire, if you look back on who had the best careers that were active in 2012 he could be 6th or 7th. Is that good enough for the HoF? Maybe, but I don't think its a "lock".

 

[David Yudkin]

By my own ranking system, Brees ranked 1st in 2008, 2nd in '06, '09 and '1, and 4th in '04. In terms of rate statistics, he ranked in the top three in ANY/A in '06, '08, '09 and '11.

Agree that Rivers is underrated; Romo is, too. But the bar is much lower than you're letting on for the HOF. Brees will instantly be in the top half of QBs in the HOF.

There are 17 HOF QBs who entered the league since 1950. He's at least better than 9 of them: Aikman, Kelly, Moon, Griese, Namath, Starr, Jurgensen, Dawson and Bradshaw.

I'd say Young, Unitas, Marino, Montana and Fouts are ahead of him if he never plays another game; most would put Elway ahead of him, too. The other 2 are Staubach and Tarkenton, and I think a lot would put Brees ahead of them, too.

Put it this way: who are the best QBs not in the HOF? Ken Anderson is the clear #1 choice, and then you've got a bunch of guys with resumes clearly inferior to Brees. Lamonica, Hadl, Brodie, Esiason, Jim Hart, Roman Gabriel, etc. Brees is clearly ahead of all of those guys. Without a SB, I'd say he runs the risk of an absurd snub, but with it, he's got a flawless resume.

Somewhere I was looking at a 'best QBs ever' list and they had him 10th, so that seems to agree with you. The thing I keep coming back to is that, although his numbers look very good right now, they might not look as impressive in 5 years when he's eligible. If things keep on going the way they're going, we could have 3 or 4 active QBs with equivalent career numbers, along with Brady, Manning and Favre.Right now he has the 3rd best career of active QBs. But by the time some other guys retire, if you look back on who had the best careers that were active in 2012 he could be 6th or 7th. Is that good enough for the HoF? Maybe, but I don't think its a "lock".

For starters, he's not retiring so the meter is still running on his career totals.If you look at just his 6 years in NO, he's thrown for 28,394 yards IN SIX YEARS. That would make him borderline Top 40 passing all time based on just his Saints totals. As a Saint, he's AVERAGED 4,732 passing yards per season. To put that into perspective, his AVERAGE season in terms of passing yards in NO would represent the 12th best total passing yards ever for an NFL season.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Brees has only led in passer rating (an overrated stat) once, but has finished 2nd or 3rd four times.

Yes, the numbers are greatly in Brees' favor. Since you seem to like to focus so much on who finishes first in what, did you miss the part where I said that Brees has led the league in touchdown passes as many times as Peyton and Brady, and has led the league in passing yards more times than either of them?

Brees does have a lot of attempts, but he has finished in the top 3 in YPA three times.

Rivers has a LONG way to go before he catches Brees in most significant categories. He is already 118 touchdown passes behind Brees, and was already starting to fall off a bit last year at times, while Brees continued to put up astronomical numbers, so I'd say the odds of Rivers ever catching Brees in TD passes, yards, etc. are slim to none (especially when Brees will likely continue widening the gap in the next few years). Trust me, not a single voter will care that Rivers' YPA is a little better when Brees has a ring and is so far ahead of him in so many other important categories AND has a ring, something Rivers won't get as long as Norv is his coach. Plus, Rivers' postseason resume right now when it comes to stats is a joke compared to Brees'.

So, I think you'r missing the part of the question where its stipulated that Brees is retiring right now. Yes Rivers is over 100 TDs behind; this gap will inexorably shorten. You don't think Rivers will throw for 25 TDs per year for 5 years? He's averaged 4400 yards and almost 30 TDs per year over the past 4 years, and the passing trend in the NFL is clearly upwards. So no, Brees will not be "so far ahead of him in so many other important categories". In fact he would in all likelihood be behind Rivers, as well as behind Rodgers and possibly a few other guys. And he's already behind Manning, Brady and Favre (Favre only retired a year ago so I'm including him, but understand the argument to not include him).

Okay, but Rivers numbers seem to be going downward (albeit still very good to solid). HIs YPA was down nearly a full point last year, and after going +23, +19 and +17 in the TD-INT department from '08-'10, he was only +7 last year, and there is some chatter that his arm already isn't what it used to be, but even if that is not true, I don't think we can assume that Rivers will keep putting up big numbers every year, especially when compared to the numbers Brees will continue to put up. That aside, even if Rivers does catch him in TD passes and yards (which he won't, unless Brees suddenly retires tomorrow or suffers a career-ending injury), he is still behind him in rings, postseason resume and, most importantly, perception. Like it or not, Rivers has barely been mentioned by media types (see: HOF voters) when always talking about the absolute best QBs in the league the last few years, while Brees is ALWAYS mentioned. Rivers is fighting not only the numbers game, but the perception game. Similar to how Warner has the great story of grocery bagger to Super Bowl MVP, Brees has the story of being the main guy on a team in a city that suffered through Katrina and then went on to win a Super Bowl and was THE sports figure in that town. You cannot discount stuff like that.

 

[Ryan99]

For starters, he's not retiring so the meter is still running on his career totals.If you look at just his 6 years in NO, he's thrown for 28,394 yards IN SIX YEARS. That would make him borderline Top 40 passing all time based on just his Saints totals. As a Saint, he's AVERAGED 4,732 passing yards per season. To put that into perspective, his AVERAGE season in terms of passing yards in NO would represent the 12th best total passing yards ever for an NFL season.

Okay, but Rivers numbers seem to be going downward (albeit still very good to solid). HIs YPA was down nearly a full point last year, and after going +23, +19 and +17 in the TD-INT department from '08-'10, he was only +7 last year, and there is some chatter that his arm already isn't what it used to be, but even if that is not true, I don't think we can assume that Rivers will keep putting up big numbers every year, especially when compared to the numbers Brees will continue to put up. That aside, even if Rivers does catch him in TD passes and yards (which he won't, unless Brees suddenly retires tomorrow or suffers a career-ending injury), he is still behind him in rings, postseason resume and, most importantly, perception. Like it or not, Rivers has barely been mentioned by media types (see: HOF voters) when always talking about the absolute best QBs in the league the last few years, while Brees is ALWAYS mentioned. Rivers is fighting not only the numbers game, but the perception game. Similar to how Warner has the great story of grocery bagger to Super Bowl MVP, Brees has the story of being the main guy on a team in a city that suffered through Katrina and then went on to win a Super Bowl and was THE sports figure in that town. You cannot discount stuff like that.

These are both good points. I have to split to prep for my drafts tonight. If the thread is still active tomorrow I'll probably post more.This is a great conversation. I love playing devil's advocate.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

An undisputed first ballot HOFer. He doesn't need to be Johnny Unitas to be a first ballot HOFer. He's a borderline top-ten QB of all time.

List please...no one was talking about Brees like this until he made the switch from SD to NO...still feel that whine I would vote for him 1st ballot, I still feel the system was part of the equation. I'm not sure I would say top10 all time.

 

[Zeff]

An undisputed first ballot HOFer. He doesn't need to be Johnny Unitas to be a first ballot HOFer. He's a borderline top-ten QB of all time.

List please...no one was talking about Brees like this until he made the switch from SD to NO...still feel that whine I would vote for him 1st ballot, I still feel the system was part of the equation. I'm not sure I would say top10 all time.

LOL wut?Nobody was talking about Brees like a Hall of Famer until he played like a slam dunk one for years and years and years? That's your argument?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

One other note: This thread has the feeling that even if you vote for Brees, 1st ballot, you still are dog meat if you say anything about the system. I think it is a colossal mistake to be so close minded and to not acknowledge the system. I do when I speak of Montana, why is it not up for discussion here? I'm still voting for him...top10 all time? This era you have to not get so caught up in the stats, so many guys have them, its not that unusual it seems.

 

[Ryan99]

List please...no one was talking about Brees like this until he made the switch from SD to NO...still feel that whine I would vote for him 1st ballot, I still feel the system was part of the equation. I'm not sure I would say top10 all time.

This list is from footballperspective.com. The methodology is all there ... the guys tries to adjust for era, opponents, etc.ManningMarinoYoungMontanaBradyTarkentonUnitasFoutsFavreBreesNorm Van BrocklinKen AndersonOtto GrahamSonny JurgensenRoger StaubachSammy BaughSid LuckmanY A TittleLen DawsonKurt Warner

 

[Ministry of Pain]

An undisputed first ballot HOFer. He doesn't need to be Johnny Unitas to be a first ballot HOFer. He's a borderline top-ten QB of all time.

List please...no one was talking about Brees like this until he made the switch from SD to NO...still feel that whine I would vote for him 1st ballot, I still feel the system was part of the equation. I'm not sure I would say top10 all time.

LOL wut?Nobody was talking about Brees like a Hall of Famer until he played like a slam dunk one for years and years and years? That's your argument?

He seemed to flip the switch instantly in the pass happy offense known as New Orleans. Miami and New Orleans were his suitors after San Diego told him to get lost because they were committed to Rivers. You can laugh all you want but did Brees become Superman that off season? Did the arm become bionic overnight? Why did Brees become a stud when he signed in New Orleans? Why is it so hard to acknowledge the system aided this guy in becoming his absolute best?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

List please...no one was talking about Brees like this until he made the switch from SD to NO...still feel that whine I would vote for him 1st ballot, I still feel the system was part of the equation. I'm not sure I would say top10 all time.

This list is from footballperspective.com. The methodology is all there ... the guys tries to adjust for era, opponents, etc.Manning

Marino

Young

Montana

Brady

Tarkenton

Unitas

Fouts

Favre

Brees

Norm Van Brocklin

Ken Anderson

Otto Graham

Sonny Jurgensen

Roger Staubach

Sammy Baugh

Sid Luckman

Y A Tittle

Len Dawson

Kurt Warner

OK, maybe I just never thought about it like that...as long as those other names are on the list.

 

[Chase Stuart]

An undisputed first ballot HOFer. He doesn't need to be Johnny Unitas to be a first ballot HOFer. He's a borderline top-ten QB of all time.

List please...no one was talking about Brees like this until he made the switch from SD to NO...still feel that whine I would vote for him 1st ballot, I still feel the system was part of the equation. I'm not sure I would say top10 all time.

I think there are 5 guys that 80+% of football fans would put ahead of him: Manning, Brady, Montana, Unitas and Marino. I am sure most would put Elway ahead of him, and I think Young would go ahead of him, too. Probably one or two of Luckman, Baugh, or Graham, tother than that, though, and I think it's debatable. Fouts, Favre, Van Brocklin, Tarkenton, Staubach, Starr, etc., are all guys that I think you could make a case for Brees as the better QB. He has had four truly magical seasons, been a very good playoff quarterback, and passes the eye test. He's also done it without any HOF teammates, which probably is a bonus for him (a negative would be doing it all in a dome). And he's obviously not done. He's likely to have at least one more dominant season in his career. Put it another way: take the best guy outside of the first 10 I named, and explain how he is clearly ahead of Brees?

 

[Chase Stuart]

One other note: This thread has the feeling that even if you vote for Brees, 1st ballot, you still are dog meat if you say anything about the system. I think it is a colossal mistake to be so close minded and to not acknowledge the system. I do when I speak of Montana, why is it not up for discussion here? I'm still voting for him...top10 all time? This era you have to not get so caught up in the stats, so many guys have them, its not that unusual it seems.

What system are we talking about, and how is it different than the system any other HOF QB had?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

One other note: This thread has the feeling that even if you vote for Brees, 1st ballot, you still are dog meat if you say anything about the system. I think it is a colossal mistake to be so close minded and to not acknowledge the system. I do when I speak of Montana, why is it not up for discussion here? I'm still voting for him...top10 all time? This era you have to not get so caught up in the stats, so many guys have them, its not that unusual it seems.

What system are we talking about, and how is it different than the system any other HOF QB had?

His passing yards shot up from 3,500 to 4,500 and his TDs went from 24 to about 35 as an avg the last 4 years in NO.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Last 2 seasons in SD he avg 525 pass attempts. In New Orleans he has thrown 635+ 4 of the last 5 years.

Marino threw it over 600 times in 1986/88/94, Brees throws about 40 passes a game average, Marino around 33, might not seem like a lot but every 4th or 5th game Brees has thrown for an extra game worth of stats.

Why am I having to show work on a simple math problem here? Brees is in a very pass happy offense and I call that the system. You want to get bog down in technical names for the offense be my guest.

Again, for the record I vote Brees in but I think the system has helped a tad and suddenly people want to take issue.

We also can agree on fringe top 10 although I would say top15-20 and leave it at that. Very hard to say what some of the men in the 40s, 50s, 60, and 70s would have done in today's era.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Last 2 seasons in SD he avg 525 pass attempts. In New Orleans he has thrown 635+ 4 of the last 5 years. Marino threw it over 600 times in 1986/88/94, Brees throws about 40 passes a game average, Marino around 33, might not seem like a lot but every 4th or 5th game Brees has thrown for an extra game worth of stats. Why am I having to show work on a simple math problem here? Brees is in a very pass happy offense and I call that the system. You want to get bog down in technical names for the offense be my guest.Again, for the record I vote Brees in but I think the system has helped a tad and suddenly people want to take issue. We also can agree on fringe top 10 although I would say top15-20 and leave it at that. Very hard to say what some of the men in the 40s, 50s, 60, and 70s would have done in today's era.

If by system you mean "he throws the ball a zillion times" then the counter would be that Brees has ranked in the top three in ANY/A in four seasons in NO and ranked 4th in '04 with the Chargers. He's obviously got ridiculous counting numbers, but his rate stats are elite, too. Doesn't that counter your "system" argument?