Does new OC scare anyone about Willie Parker? (1 Viewer)

[kawaihae]

When deciding on a pick, sometimes you have to factor the system as well as the player. Willie Parker did well the past two years playing under a Cowher/Whis offense that pounded the ball consistently. Now Arians takes over the offense, and after reading his bio, I see that he has coached Pittsburgh wide receivers for the past three years, and was the quarterbacks coach with Peyton at Indy from 1998 to 2000. This gives me the feeling that he is pretty pass happy (or, at least not as run friendly).

BUT...he was also the offensive coordinator for the Browns from 2001 to 2003, which includes Jamal Lewis's 1300 and 2000 yard seasons.

So basically, I'm looking to see which way the offense seems to be leaning. Anybody heard anything about the offensive philosophy of the new Steelers' coaching staff?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Well if he's not a fool he would understand that balance is important for an offense. The pass sets up the run. The run sets up the pass. I haven't seen anything yet from him to make me think he wouldn't utilize a player like Willie Parker as best he can.

The Steelers were one of the best passing teams last season and Willie Parker benefitted greatly because of it. If Bruce Arians wants to make the team a better more efficient passing team that only helps Parker in my opinion. And for where he's getting drafted he may be one of the best values in the first round.

 

[-OZ-]

Parker will play a role in the passing game, an improved passing game will only open the field for FWP, and if you look at Indy, Cincy, New Orleans, Philly, Dallas and St, Louis, RBs with a good passing game tend to do alright.

So, no, I wouldn't be worried.

 

[kawaihae]

Totally agree with both you guys. Heres the thing... Last year I was deciding whether to pick SJax, Tiki, or Ronnie Brown with the #4. Because I believe that a team's offensive philosophy can make a difference, I looked at Linehan coming over from the run-happy Vikings to the Rams. This caused me to give a slight uptick to SJax in my rankings over the other two, and it made all the difference in the draft and the season.

This year I'm debating between Westbrook, Addai and Parker. I think if the Steelers go from a run-first offense to a pass first offense, that might be the little thing that pushes Parker to the back of that rating.

So I'm just looking for insight about the offensive philosophy of Arians and Tomlin.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I think that good coordinators play to the strength of their personnel. For example in 2002 the Minnesota Vikings had the #1 rushing offense under Scott Linehan. 2 seasons later in 2004, the Vikings had the #1 passing offense in the NFL. That's an example of an offensive coordinator playing with his personnel and making the best of their abilities.

I hope that Bruce Arians can be that kind of offensive coordinator who is flexible and will call the best plays no matter what. A more important question than whether he is a run-first or pass-first coordinator is whether he's a good or bad offensive coordinator and that's still up in the air. If he plays to the strength of his personnel I think the Steelers will be fine offensively.

 

[Prof. Chaos]

Read some where FWP is supposed to be used more in the passing game. P-burg has an easy schedule vs. the run the first 11 weeks of the season. I would not be surprised to see Willie in the top 5 during that period.

 

[gianmarco]

BUT...he was also the offensive coordinator for the Browns from 2001 to 2003, which includes Jamal Lewis's 1300 and 2000 yard seasons.

On a sidenote, Jamal Lewis wasn't a Brown from 2001 to 2003. He just got there in 2007. I don't think I would use the Browns rushing totals from 2001-2003 as a reason.

 

[erymer]

BUT...he was also the offensive coordinator for the Browns from 2001 to 2003, which includes Jamal Lewis's 1300 and 2000 yard seasons.

On a sidenote, Jamal Lewis wasn't a Brown from 2001 to 2003. He just got there in 2007. I don't think I would use the Browns rushing totals from 2001-2003 as a reason.

yeah I would not hold his stint with my Browns as a sign of things to come. Our O-line wasn't exactly setting the world on fire either. Tomlin comes from a running team. Chester Taylor had over 300 caries last year on Tomlins old team. A good OC will taylor his offense to the skill players he has at his disposal. There is no way he will not use Parker to his advantage. Even if he passes a little more, it will not be anough to hurt FWP. It will probably help him more by opening up running lanes. I wouldn't be surprised if Willie ends up in the top 6-7 backs.

 

[Bri]

The new OC has talked about using 4 wide on first and second downs. That IMO has created much of the stir about Parker and all Steeler O thoughts lately. Maybe the conversation just needed spark but....I don't think too much of it.

In theory it's a sound thought. Any O can use a matchup prob(1st down Ds not set to handle 4 WR usually) and bit of unpredictability.

I don't expect an O with as much power and grit as Cowher's Os have had but his were like old Gibbs or old Parcells' offenses and just classic. No one really does that anymore. I still figure a heavy dose of Willie and while he's no Tiki, "Fast willie" can be tough to tackle if he's got a screen pass setup just right. Maybe he gets less carries and more catches but I wouldn't worry about the # of touches at all.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I think that good coordinators play to the strength of their personnel. For example in 2002 the Minnesota Vikings had the #1 rushing offense under Scott Linehan. 2 seasons later in 2004, the Vikings had the #1 passing offense in the NFL. That's an example of an offensive coordinator playing with his personnel and making the best of their abilities. I hope that Bruce Arians can be that kind of offensive coordinator who is flexible and will call the best plays no matter what. A more important question than whether he is a run-first or pass-first coordinator is whether he's a good or bad offensive coordinator and that's still up in the air. If he plays to the strength of his personnel I think the Steelers will be fine offensively.

This isn't the Vikings we're talking about. It's the Rooney-owned Steelers who, aside from the anomaly season here or there have always been fairly smash-mouth. If they have a good passing game, so be it. They will still put the emphasis on defense, and the O-line. Add to this that Tomlin is a defensive guy, and that reverberates Steeler football, and IMO, the reason he was hired over Whiz or Grimm. If they can pass well - and they should - they will. I seriously doubt that the 1st year head coach and 1st year O coordinator will be given daddy's car to go drag racing down the freeway on thier 16th birthday.

 

[Traders2001]

Read some where FWP is supposed to be used more in the passing game. P-burg has an easy schedule vs. the run the first 11 weeks of the season. I would not be surprised to see Willie in the top 5 during that period.

Parker is a top 5 at any period , opening up the running game by having a good passing game is great for Willie since he daes nt need a big hole to go all the way . I see 4 or 5 long TD runs ( 60 yards or more ) for Willie this year .300 rushes 1480 yds 10 Td's 60 reception 600 yards 5 Td's.2000 total yards and 15 Td's top 4 easy ( ahead of LJ ) and Addai he is way way overrated ( Rhodes was better then him last season ).

 

[Phlash]

Read some where FWP is supposed to be used more in the passing game. P-burg has an easy schedule vs. the run the first 11 weeks of the season. I would not be surprised to see Willie in the top 5 during that period.

Parker is a top 5 at any period , opening up the running game by having a good passing game is great for Willie since he daes nt need a big hole to go all the way . I see 4 or 5 long TD runs ( 60 yards or more ) for Willie this year .300 rushes 1480 yds 10 Td's 60 reception 600 yards 5 Td's.

2000 total yards and 15 Td's top 4 easy ( ahead of LJ ) and Addai he is way way overrated ( Rhodes was better then him last season ).

 

[RudeDog]

Read some where FWP is supposed to be used more in the passing game. P-burg has an easy schedule vs. the run the first 11 weeks of the season. I would not be surprised to see Willie in the top 5 during that period.

Parker is a top 5 at any period , opening up the running game by having a good passing game is great for Willie since he daes nt need a big hole to go all the way . I see 4 or 5 long TD runs ( 60 yards or more ) for Willie this year .300 rushes 1480 yds 10 Td's 60 reception 600 yards 5 Td's.

2000 total yards and 15 Td's top 4 easy ( ahead of LJ ) and Addai he is way way overrated ( Rhodes was better then him last season ).

Willie is not a workhorse back - these rushing attempts and pass receptions you have listed here would destroy him considering he carried a heavy load last year. I see his load diminishing somewhat this year in order to keep him most effective.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Ben Roethlisberger is no Peyton Manning.

If Arians wants to win, he'll run the ball. Absolutely nothing to worry about here. Parker is a top 6 pick.

 

[LHUCKS]

Yes

 

[nygiants56]

Totally agree with both you guys. Heres the thing... Last year I was deciding whether to pick SJax, Tiki, or Ronnie Brown with the #4. Because I believe that a team's offensive philosophy can make a difference, I looked at Linehan coming over from the run-happy Vikings to the Rams. This caused me to give a slight uptick to SJax in my rankings over the other two, and it made all the difference in the draft and the season.

This year I'm debating between Westbrook, Addai and Parker. I think if the Steelers go from a run-first offense to a pass first offense, that might be the little thing that pushes Parker to the back of that rating.

So I'm just looking for insight about the offensive philosophy of Arians and Tomlin.

I'm just not sure Big Ben is a prototypical gunslinging QB..I don't know that it fits his style. Also, not sure a pass-happy offense can/will work in Pitt, in late November/December in cold ,blustery,snowy weather. And, when you play cheesecake defenses like Cincy and Cleve, why would you EVER pass? neither D can stop the run on a regular basis. they play against some of the NFL's worst run defenses: Browns (2x), Bengals (2x),Niners, Cards, Seahawks, Jets , Jags , Rams. they play vs Jags and @Rams in weeks 14 and 15, during fantasy playoff time! JUICY for FWP owners.

so , with that awesome Steelers' defense and Mike Tomlin coaching on the defensive side, why would they ever need to open things up and go 4-wide, and pass every down? seems to me they can play defense against this teams, and beat them with FWP..

I seriously doubt that Arians will go crazy with gimmicks and run-n-shoot style schemes. It'll be more of a balanced attack, imo.and, perhaps the Steelers get out to early leads, and rely on FWP to pound the ball and wear out the clock..

in your case, I'd rank the RB's :

1. Addai

2. FWP

3. Westbrook

Addai plays Oak and Houston in weeks 14/15, while FWP plays Jags/Rams. really, you cna't go wrong with either. but you have to give Addai the edge, because the offense isn't changing from last year, as Pittsburgh's is..

it could take time to adjust to a new philosophy.

 

[crimsonrebel]

FWP SHOULD be involved in the pass offense more. Ive said that for the last two years. Two years ago i could never understand why he didnt get more screen passes, since he often broke them for big gains. That being said, more passing isnt necessarily a bad thing.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Parker's potential for production only improves with the introduction of Arians, unless the transition is a :trainwreck:

- wider running lanes

- more touches in space

both give the #1 big play threat from the RB position more chances to break long runs. Remember FWP was facing 8+ in the box last year.

I do have some doubts as to whether Ben will fit in this scheme. He doesn't seem like a "quick twitch" thinker like a Peyton or Brady - not that Ben isn't smart, he's just a little hesitant in his decision making at times, especially while he was doing an imitation of a punching bag for stretches last year.

 

[Cookiemonster]

I do have some doubts as to whether Ben will fit in this scheme. He doesn't seem like a "quick twitch" thinker like a Peyton or Brady - not that Ben isn't smart, he's just a little hesitant in his decision making at times, especially while he was doing an imitation of a punching bag for stretches last year.

You don't think his offseason and the 1st 1/2 of the season had an impact on his ability to make the quick decisions? What was your tone on him leading up to the Super Bowl or for the last 5 or so games of last year? Pro-rate his home-stretch in '06 or read my post in the player spotlight. No reason to think, if given the opportunity (play calling + pass pro), Ben couldn't throw for 4K+ and 30 or more TDs. Not saying he will, but I believe he's capable. As my earlier post suggested, I think this team won't go any higher than a 2-4% edge in pass/run ratio. But if Holmes blossoms and Miller gets more involved, you should see more single back sets and a lot less 8 or 9 man fronts. I do look for Davenport to be a little more involved in the late game garbage time and goal-line to preserve some meaningless (FF excluded) Parker touches/abuse. If Dooky hasn't gotten more deliberate after a year on the team, well they got Barlow.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I do have some doubts as to whether Ben will fit in this scheme. He doesn't seem like a "quick twitch" thinker like a Peyton or Brady - not that Ben isn't smart, he's just a little hesitant in his decision making at times, especially while he was doing an imitation of a punching bag for stretches last year.

You don't think his offseason and the 1st 1/2 of the season had an impact on his ability to make the quick decisions? What was your tone on him leading up to the Super Bowl or for the last 5 or so games of last year? Pro-rate his home-stretch in '06 or read my post in the player spotlight. No reason to think, if given the opportunity (play calling + pass pro), Ben couldn't throw for 4K+ and 30 or more TDs. Not saying he will, but I believe he's capable.

I do think getting treated like a pinata early last year affected him and made him more hesitant. He was never asked to be a quick strike QB in 2005, a lot of his best plays were play action, or plays where he used his size and decent mobility to hang in and freelance. His performance down the stretch last year was ok, but nothing to get too excited about, especially his completion percentage - notice that he some near meltdowns in games where he was asked to throw the ball a LOT last year. I just don't picture Ben excelling as a 3,5, and 7 step drop and timing route QB, I dont think that's his game. Now, he was going to play point guard on the Miami Ohio basketball team (IIRC), and the point guard mentality is exactly what would make a QB excel in a system with lots of spread formations and quick decisions, so Im not saying Ben can't do it, just that I'm skeptical based on what I've seen so far.

 

[CrossEyed]

Read some where FWP is supposed to be used more in the passing game. P-burg has an easy schedule vs. the run the first 11 weeks of the season. I would not be surprised to see Willie in the top 5 during that period.

Parker is a top 5 at any period , opening up the running game by having a good passing game is great for Willie since he daes nt need a big hole to go all the way . I see 4 or 5 long TD runs ( 60 yards or more ) for Willie this year .300 rushes 1480 yds 10 Td's 60 reception 600 yards 5 Td's.

2000 total yards and 15 Td's top 4 easy ( ahead of LJ ) and Addai he is way way overrated ( Rhodes was better then him last season ).

Willie is not a workhorse back - these rushing attempts and pass receptions you have listed here would destroy him considering he carried a heavy load last year. I see his load diminishing somewhat this year in order to keep him most effective.

What evidence do you have to support this statement?

 

[jerseyh8r]

As far as the running game is concerned....I just spent a few minutes looking at a season-to-season change in pass/rush ratio and how it correlates to a team's rushing yardage. The correlation coefficient was .78 (all teams since 2002- the more they passed in year n+1, the fewer yardage accumulated on the ground in that year). I was curious b/c it didn't seem that an increase in pass/rush ratio would necessarily mean it would impact the rush game negatively if efficiency improves or there is an overall increase in plays ran overall in a season.

I think-if I remember basic stats 10 years ago) that .78 is a fairly strong correlation--of course if you are in a PPR league and think that FWP will be seeing the ball in the passing game, none of this should really matter.

I for one think what he loses in rush attempts, he gains back in receptions and receiving yardage.

 

[kawaihae]

BUT...he was also the offensive coordinator for the Browns from 2001 to 2003, which includes Jamal Lewis's 1300 and 2000 yard seasons.

Man, what a stupid line I put here. Sorry, posting after a Friday night of heinekens and texas hold em can be a mistake.Anyway, to try to atone for my sin, I looked at Arians' only stint as an OC (CLEV 2001 to 2003)2001 - 21st in NFL for rushing attempts (417); 31st in rushing yards; 25th in passing attempts (466), 24th in completions; and 62 pass receptions by RBs. 25th in total points scored. (5% more passes)2002 - 26th in rushing attempts (406); 23rd in yards; 15th in passing attempts (552); 13th in completions; and 82 pass receptions by RBs. 19th in total points scored. (15% more passes) 2003 - 27th in rushing attempts (412); 20th in yards; 21st in passing attempts (509); 12th in completions; 73 pass receptions by RBs. 29th in total points scored. (11% more passes)For comparison's sake, the 2006 Steelers had 469 rushing attempts, and 523 passing attempts (both ranked 15th in the NFL). (5% more passes)So, there were less rushing attempts called by Arians in Clev, but there also were less overall plays because the team stunk. What I take from this is, 1) Willie Parker might get less rushing attempts, but definetly holds his value with passes out of the backfield (unless he's a poor receiver? Last year he had 41 passing target, 31 receptions, for 75%) 2) Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and Big Ben get a slight uptick in my rankings.

 

[duaneok66]

BUT...he was also the offensive coordinator for the Browns from 2001 to 2003, which includes Jamal Lewis's 1300 and 2000 yard seasons.

Man, what a stupid line I put here. Sorry, posting after a Friday night of heinekens and texas hold em can be a mistake.Anyway, to try to atone for my sin, I looked at Arians' only stint as an OC (CLEV 2001 to 2003)2001 - 21st in NFL for rushing attempts (417); 31st in rushing yards; 25th in passing attempts (466), 24th in completions; and 62 pass receptions by RBs. 25th in total points scored. (5% more passes)2002 - 26th in rushing attempts (406); 23rd in yards; 15th in passing attempts (552); 13th in completions; and 82 pass receptions by RBs. 19th in total points scored. (15% more passes) 2003 - 27th in rushing attempts (412); 20th in yards; 21st in passing attempts (509); 12th in completions; 73 pass receptions by RBs. 29th in total points scored. (11% more passes)For comparison's sake, the 2006 Steelers had 469 rushing attempts, and 523 passing attempts (both ranked 15th in the NFL). (5% more passes)So, there were less rushing attempts called by Arians in Clev, but there also were less overall plays because the team stunk. What I take from this is, 1) Willie Parker might get less rushing attempts, but definetly holds his value with passes out of the backfield (unless he's a poor receiver? Last year he had 41 passing target, 31 receptions, for 75%) 2) Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and Big Ben get a slight uptick in my rankings.

good post . . .what a lot of people dont take into account is the RBs blocking skills . . . is he good enough blocker to stay in on passing downs?? Is Haynes still on the roster??? If he is not a true 3 down back, I see his stats going down somewhat if Arians does indeed run the ball less . . .

 

[Cookiemonster]

I do have some doubts as to whether Ben will fit in this scheme. He doesn't seem like a "quick twitch" thinker like a Peyton or Brady - not that Ben isn't smart, he's just a little hesitant in his decision making at times, especially while he was doing an imitation of a punching bag for stretches last year.

You don't think his offseason and the 1st 1/2 of the season had an impact on his ability to make the quick decisions? What was your tone on him leading up to the Super Bowl or for the last 5 or so games of last year? Pro-rate his home-stretch in '06 or read my post in the player spotlight. No reason to think, if given the opportunity (play calling + pass pro), Ben couldn't throw for 4K+ and 30 or more TDs. Not saying he will, but I believe he's capable.

I do think getting treated like a pinata early last year affected him and made him more hesitant. He was never asked to be a quick strike QB in 2005, a lot of his best plays were play action, or plays where he used his size and decent mobility to hang in and freelance. His performance down the stretch last year was ok, but nothing to get too excited about, especially his completion percentage - notice that he some near meltdowns in games where he was asked to throw the ball a LOT last year. I just don't picture Ben excelling as a 3,5, and 7 step drop and timing route QB, I dont think that's his game. Now, he was going to play point guard on the Miami Ohio basketball team (IIRC), and the point guard mentality is exactly what would make a QB excel in a system with lots of spread formations and quick decisions, so Im not saying Ben can't do it, just that I'm skeptical based on what I've seen so far.

Now, I thought that their playoff run was showing that type of passing a lot more, and it looked like the game was slowing down a lot for Ben before his sorry Super Bowl performance. Then of course the accident, the appendectomy and then the concussion. By late '06 he looked like he was rounding back into early '06 form.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Now, I thought that their playoff run was showing that type of passing a lot more, and it looked like the game was slowing down a lot for Ben before his sorry Super Bowl performance. Then of course the accident, the appendectomy and then the concussion. By late '06 he looked like he was rounding back into early '06 form.

I didn't get to see a lot of him at the end of the season and was wondering: what led you to say this?Weeks 12-17: 89/164-1213-6-6...75 rating

Weeks 15-17: 45/77-576-3-3...78 rating

I only have the stats to look at and was curious how you came to this conclusion and if you saw something on the field that would lead you to think people may be sleeping on Big Ben. Looking at the numbers only, I am not looking at the numbers of a QB who can lead a predominantly pass-oriented attack (even in the 2nd half), and therefore FWP remains a viable option on the ground and it seems it may be prudent for Big Ben to look for him as an outlet as well. I could be wrong though, which leads me to ask.

 

[Cookiemonster]

Now, I thought that their playoff run was showing that type of passing a lot more, and it looked like the game was slowing down a lot for Ben before his sorry Super Bowl performance. Then of course the accident, the appendectomy and then the concussion. By late '06 he looked like he was rounding back into early '06 form.

I didn't get to see a lot of him at the end of the season and was wondering: what led you to say this?Weeks 12-17: 89/164-1213-6-6...75 rating

Weeks 15-17: 45/77-576-3-3...78 rating

I only have the stats to look at and was curious how you came to this conclusion and if you saw something on the field that would lead you to think people may be sleeping on Big Ben. Looking at the numbers only, I am not looking at the numbers of a QB who can lead a predominantly pass-oriented attack (even in the 2nd half), and therefore FWP remains a viable option on the ground and it seems it may be prudent for Big Ben to look for him as an outlet as well. I could be wrong though, which leads me to ask.

Following bike accident, then appendectomy, Ben was clearly not himself to begin the season. He appeared reluctant to stand in the pocket and take the hit. He was wildly innacurate and didn't give the plays a chance to develop. He began to round into '05 form when he sustained a pretty good concussion. Ben should not have played the following couple weeks (IMO, the Steelers would have made the playoffs had Batch started those two games). Roethlisberger began to look like the Ben of old over the last half of the season and consequently, the Steelers began to win. If you project his 2nd 1/2 of the season, I believe you'll get more accurate projections for what he should have done last year.

336/578 58% 4334yds 7.5/att 24TD/24INT

Keep in mind, both games vs. Balt were in this stretch and Ben averaged .5 TDs and 2 INTs while taking a 7 sack per game average against the unrelenting Raven defense. The season ending improvement in Santonio Holmes makes for one more weapon this year and the WRs coach has been promoted to offensive coordinator. I think the writing is on the wall and we will see a slight but not spectacular increase in run/pass ratio (this is still the Steelers we're talking about).

In all, I'm expecting something like

330/555 - 59% - 4160 yds - 7.5 avg - 26 TDs and 19 INTs

copied from my post in the player spotlight.Thought it was better left there, but so many seem to be hinging Parker's fate to Pitt's passing game.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Do NOT let Arians' statements about running a lot of 4-wide scare you. To wit :

1) The Steelers have traditionally run a bunch of 4-wide formations, they just always did it with the QB in the gun, rather than under center. All Arians means is that they're installing some 4-wide, single back sets, which, if anything, means Parker will get more carries out of these spreads than he did out of the shotgun. They also aim to use more backfield passing (very smart, IMO) to get Parker the ball in space, where he can utilize his speed. This can only benefit him, particularly in leagues that are PPR, or that reward passing and rushing yards equally.

2) Tomlin has already said that his style is to "win by attrition" - mainly, by running and stopping the run. No matter what Arians wants to do, the Steelers are still going to run the ball a lot.

3) Haynes was already the go-to 3rd down back in clear passing situations, so his re-signing will not cut into Parker's carries.