Don't Overreact 2025 Edition (1 Viewer)

[Ilov80s]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

 

[travdogg]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

 

[Ilov80s]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

Yeah I can't say every surprising thing that happens week 1 is meaningless. Look at Puka a couple years ago as a prime example. Javonte is the starting RB for a Dallas offense which could be pretty high flying. But conversely, he was 15 for 54, 2 for 10. He looked strong but didn't show much else. He is likely going to live or die by GL TDs. If you drafted him, you have to feel good about where you got him but he didn't blow me away enough to override what I've seen from him over his entire NFL career. As for Pacheco, he was taken in the RB20-30 range so everyone was very aware of his limitations and downside. He caught 2 passes. averaged 5 yards a carry. With Worthy hurt now too, it probably just means more Pacheco. There are touch worries and Kareem Hunt could be annoying but I think Pacheco probably had one of his worst games of the season and Javonte one of his best. I am curious to see they compare next week. I actually see a lot of commonalities between them in play, inury history and offensive team upside.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Frisman Jackson says hi

 

[King of the Jungle]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

I think you are right about Pacheco, but believe Javonte may be a sell. I think DAL lucked out after the spit and it left PHI scrambling. I think he beats his ADP but will be TD reliant from here on out.

 

[travdogg]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

I think you are right about Pacheco, but believe Javonte may be a sell. I think DAL lucked out after the spit and it left PHI scrambling. I think he beats his ADP but will be TD reliant from here on out.

Beating ADP is all I meant when saying some excitement over Javonte is warranted.

 

[Chaka]

Week one overreacting is, like 87% of the reason I'm here.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Frisman Jackson says hi

Hollywood Brown, circa 2019 says hi.

Game 1: 5/147/2

ROS: wet fart noises

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

I doubt it's season ending or anything given that he walked out on his own. He migh miss a week or 2.

 

[travdogg]

Frisman Jackson says hi

Hollywood Brown, circa 2019 says hi.

Game 1: 5/147/2

ROS: wet fart noises

Rest of career has pretty much been wet fart noises.

 

[Chaka]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

Go on....

 

[Chaka]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

I doubt it's season ending or anything given that he walked out on his own. He migh miss a week or 2.

Well, they didn't ask him to walk out in a hand stand, so....

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Frisman Jackson says hi

Hollywood Brown, circa 2019 says hi.

Game 1: 5/147/2

ROS: wet fart noises

Rest of career has pretty much been wet fart noises.

To be fair, he had a whopping 13 targets the next game. And did very little with them. 80-something yards. Never saw more than a handful of targets after that.

 

[Ilov80s]

I post this thread just about every year. Even the best fantasy players have bad weeks. If that bad week comes in week 6,we just brush it off. If it happens week 1, we panic and make grand sweeping assumptions off a single data point. The same can be said the other way. Mediocre players can have big weeks. Just because that big week happens to come week 1, doesn't mean it's a sign of things to come. It's a short season and there is a lot of randomness. Be cool and look at the big picture. Usually I wait until after week 1 but I already see AJ Brown, Omarion Hampton, Pacheco, Pickens panic and people getting maybe a little too excited about guys like QJ and Javonte Williams.

So just a reminder that in 2024, after week 1...

• Jayden Reed, Cooper Kupp and Allen Lazard were the WR1, WR2 and WR3
• Alec Pierce had more than double the fantasy points of Amon Ra, Drake London and JSN combined
• Terry McLaurin was WR77

• Jordan Mason, Rhamondre Stevenson and JK Dobbins were top 5 RBs combining for over 400 yards and 3 TDs
• Breece Hall looked like he was worthy of his top 3 ADP with 22 touches, 5 receptions, 90 yards and a TD
• Derrick Henry only had 48 total yards, less than teammate Justice Hill

• Anthony Richardson outscored Lamar and Jalen Hurts
• Joe Burrow was QB30
• Kyle Pitts was TE3

Note I am using 0.5 PPR for these

Oh man, the victory laps people were taking on Cooper Kupp after week 1 last year.

That said, I do think at least in the case of Pacheco some worry is justified, as is perhaps some excitement over Javonte.

I think you are right about Pacheco, but believe Javonte may be a sell. I think DAL lucked out after the spit and it left PHI scrambling. I think he beats his ADP but will be TD reliant from here on out.

Beating ADP is all I meant when saying some excitement over Javonte is warranted.

That’s fair. At that spot so many players end up being droppable by October and it looks like Javonte can be a viable asset.

 

[travdogg]

Maybe this is a more buy low/sell high statement than a don't overreact one, but I've been reading a lot of Travis Kelce is washed stuff today, and I don't get that at all. He was fingertips away from a 2 TD game, against the best TE stopper in the NFL. I think FAR too often people are in a rush to bury guys when they are no longer their peak selves, even if they are still one of the better guys out there. I'm not worried about the low yardage against James.

Derwin James didn't allow a single TE over 60 yards in a game last season, despite facing:
Bowers (twice)
McBride
Andrews
Kelce (just once, James was hurt for the 1st game and Kelce went for 7-89 in his absence)
Njoku

In fact, other than prime Kelce, its never happened in his career.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

Go on....

 

[wgoldsph]

An over reaction would be @travdogg finally ranking Mahomes to match his play.

 

[rockaction]

I am killing Kansas City today. My takes are scorching. I think I believe every one of them, however, and I think for good reasons.

It's crazy because I kept writing and writing and thinking I was going off the deep end, but I don't think so, even keeping this thread in mind. The only thing that might save them is that they were in Brazil. Which sucks. And throws guys off. So that's the only thing unaccounted for.

But their problems are all last year's problems exacerbated. We saw those problems against Philly come home to really roost.

The receivers are too small and terrible intermediate route runners. Worthy and Rice are in the 33d and 20th percentile for beating man coverage. Rice is astounding against zone, beating everybody in football (he's first) but Worthy is 64th percentile. If you press them it's disgusting. Worthy beats press that give him numbers where he's 16th percentile (getting open 54% of the time) and if you press Rice—get this—he gets open 44% of the time, good for 4th percentile in the league. Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster got cut by the WR factory that is the . . . Patriots??

The running backs are terrible to begin with, and they look older, slower, fatter, and more hurt or converted wide receiverish. Pacheco is a 7th rounder that has throughout his career run everywhere but forward, Hunt is the Zootopia sloth at the DMV, and let's hope the guy who just converted from WR to RB in college is Tyrone Tracy or a poor man's version of it?

Kelce took out a teammate, had Twitter ask this question aloud while the picture showed his gut ("Didn't Kelce's shirt hear that Kelce was supposed to be in shape?") and was bizarrely headbutting and yelling at his offensive lineman teammate. Truly an epic performance. I don't think that was Derwin James's doing. I think I saw Derwin sitting and eating ice cream cake. I mean, I believed Kelce when he talked about his last offseason and said this one would be different. Then he hit every hockey game, has a strangely similar body to last offseason, and used the last weekend of the season to get engaged in the biggest contrived photo op one can imagine while promoting his future wife's album and just being weirdly everywhere and not performing like one would think one would perform if the fire and disappointment from last year were real. I don't really know so I'll give it a chance, but I wouldn't gamble five dollars on him, never mind anything of importance.

The offensive line looked a little better, and bless it for that. But it wasn't dominant or anything and other than an aging Mack and other DE who was on my fantasy team but whose name I can't spell, I don't think the Chargers bring the front or the rush too much.

And KC is throwing the ball even more quickly than ever regardless of their line, which means they can't get downfield. Their aDOT of all their passes had to be minuscule, but I'll bet their completions' aDOT was under five. I'd venture it was under three. I can't even fathom it being anything respectable. I mean, it was so bad. And Los Angeles wasn't like this great secondary or linebacking corps or defensive front. They're decent.

Anyway, all the problems were there besides Mahomes correcting his fitness, thank God. It was ugly.

 

[N Zone]

There's already a Quentin Johnston thread.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

Ya, to parrot you, what struck me was how little threat the Chiefs are without Rice or Worthy. And then Mahomes reminded me that he is the great equalizer.

I didn’t watch the entire game but the lack of Chris Jones name had me wondering if the gas in his tank is low. If so, that is a huge deal.

 

[Soulfly3]

lamb probably won't drop 4 passes in the next 2 seasons combined

 

[wgoldsph]

During the game I questioned if Mahomes had lost "it".

Then he made two completions only he could. Seems like I was a few hours early for this thread.

 

[dickey moe]

lamb probably won't drop 4 passes in the next 2 seasons combined

WRONG

 

[Soulfly3]

lamb probably won't drop 4 passes in the next 2 seasons combined

WRONG

oh ya, WE'LL SEE ABOUT THAT

 

[Ilov80s]

I’ll bump this to help people stay level headed on this fine Monday morning

 

[The Jacket]

During the game I questioned if Mahomes had lost "it".

Then he made two completions only he could. Seems like I was a few hours early for this thread.

It doesn't get talked about enough how bad the situation is. I'm not absolving him entirely, but he's pressured instantly every other snap, the running game never ever hits a big play to help the load, and his weapons are either leading the league in drops or injured or just bad.

Sucks. Hopefully they finally get their top 3 WR on the field together at some point but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[wgoldsph]

My facts, mirages, and open ended from week one -

Facts:
KC needs wr. It's become a negative WAR position across the board
Just Fields is a top fantasy qb
Derek Henry isn't a human being.
Let Russ be cooked. Just done.
The Bengals don't play well until the first week of fall at the minimum.
Mia will clean house mid season
This one kills me - Pacheco is never gonna be the guy he was two years ago
Sam Darnold is the same guy as he was when he was drafted
Baker has always been an above average qb. He was a rookie, improved in year two (I'm too lazy to look this up so hoping my memory is right) played hurt and then the Browns made the big brain decision to bring in a sex criminal to play qb.

Mirages:
Quentin Justin. He might get double his td total across the rest of the year.
Indy. MIA might be the worst team in football.
Daniel Jones in specific. During his career Jones has consistently preyed on week opponents to the point he was given a lucrative contract. Let him play an average defense before deciding he's good.
Mclaurin as wr2 in Wash. He just needed a week or two to get up to speed after his holdout.


Open ended:
JJustinFields is a QB period? Started his career in a terrible situation and has gotten better each year. Ripped some shots between defenders which I fear might be picked off by better CB, but you can't argue with the sheer velocity.
Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.
Koleman emergence? He looked like the jump ball artist he was billed at coming out of college, but how much was game specific?

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

There's an RB1 for the Jets and two guys backing him up.

 

[pinkstapler]

I am killing Kansas City today. My takes are scorching. I think I believe every one of them, however, and I think for good reasons.

It's crazy because I kept writing and writing and thinking I was going off the deep end, but I don't think so, even keeping this thread in mind. The only thing that might save them is that they were in Brazil. Which sucks. And throws guys off. So that's the only thing unaccounted for.

But their problems are all last year's problems exacerbated. We saw those problems against Philly come home to really roost.

The receivers are too small and terrible intermediate route runners. Worthy and Rice are in the 33d and 20th percentile for beating man coverage. Rice is astounding against zone, beating everybody in football (he's first) but Worthy is 64th percentile. If you press them it's disgusting. Worthy beats press that give him numbers where he's 16th percentile (getting open 54% of the time) and if you press Rice—get this—he gets open 44% of the time, good for 4th percentile in the league. Tyquan Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster got cut by the WR factory that is the . . . Patriots??

The running backs are terrible to begin with, and they look older, slower, fatter, and more hurt or converted wide receiverish. Pacheco is a 7th rounder that has throughout his career run everywhere but forward, Hunt is the Zootopia sloth at the DMV, and let's hope the guy who just converted from WR to RB in college is Tyrone Tracy or a poor man's version of it?

Kelce took out a teammate, had Twitter ask this question aloud while the picture showed his gut ("Didn't Kelce's shirt hear that Kelce was supposed to be in shape?") and was bizarrely headbutting and yelling at his offensive lineman teammate. Truly an epic performance. I don't think that was Derwin James's doing. I think I saw Derwin sitting and eating ice cream cake. I mean, I believed Kelce when he talked about his last offseason and said this one would be different. Then he hit every hockey game, has a strangely similar body to last offseason, and used the last weekend of the season to get engaged in the biggest contrived photo op one can imagine while promoting his future wife's album and just being weirdly everywhere and not performing like one would think one would perform if the fire and disappointment from last year were real. I don't really know so I'll give it a chance, but I wouldn't gamble five dollars on him, never mind anything of importance.

The offensive line looked a little better, and bless it for that. But it wasn't dominant or anything and other than an aging Mack and other DE who was on my fantasy team but whose name I can't spell, I don't think the Chargers bring the front or the rush too much.

And KC is throwing the ball even more quickly than ever regardless of their line, which means they can't get downfield. Their aDOT of all their passes had to be minuscule, but I'll bet their completions' aDOT was under five. I'd venture it was under three. I can't even fathom it being anything respectable. I mean, it was so bad. And Los Angeles wasn't like this great secondary or linebacking corps or defensive front. They're decent.

Anyway, all the problems were there besides Mahomes correcting his fitness, thank God. It was ugly.

I came to this thread explicitly looking for Pacheco hate and I'm glad I found some. The fact people were still drafting him over Pollard even after the Spears injury was tilting me.

I don't think Brashard Smith is going to make some magical bump to RB1 and look markedly better than Pacheco or Hunt in this sputtering offense. But I do think this week helps motivate the staff to give him more work. And after losing another WR, it doesn't even have to be strictly backfield work. He's a converted WR to begin with, and it was the best part of his profile IMO coming into the 2025 draft.

 

[pinkstapler]

My facts, mirages, and open ended from week one -

Facts:
KC needs wr. It's become a negative WAR position across the board
Just Fields is a top fantasy qb
Derek Henry isn't a human being.
Let Russ be cooked. Just done.
The Bengals don't play well until the first week of fall at the minimum.
Mia will clean house mid season
This one kills me - Pacheco is never gonna be the guy he was two years ago
Sam Darnold is the same guy as he was when he was drafted
Baker has always been an above average qb. He was a rookie, improved in year two (I'm too lazy to look this up so hoping my memory is right) played hurt and then the Browns made the big brain decision to bring in a sex criminal to play qb.

Mirages:
Quentin Justin. He might get double his td total across the rest of the year.
Indy. MIA might be the worst team in football.
Daniel Jones in specific. During his career Jones has consistently preyed on week opponents to the point he was given a lucrative contract. Let him play an average defense before deciding he's good.
Mclaurin as wr2 in Wash. He just needed a week or two to get up to speed after his holdout.


Open ended:
JJustinFields is a QB period? Started his career in a terrible situation and has gotten better each year. Ripped some shots between defenders which I fear might be picked off by better CB, but you can't argue with the sheer velocity.
Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.
Koleman emergence? He looked like the jump ball artist he was billed at coming out of college, but how much was game specific?

Wow... for such a long list I'm surprised how on board I am with just about every single point as well as where you categorized them. Really happy to see the Colts/Jones fall in the mirage category. I do think they have one of the better offensive skill cores in football with Pittman/Downs/JT/Warren (TBD) and that people were way too low on Pittman; but was going to scream at my TV if I heard one more talking head regurgitate that QB stat about scoring on every drive and how Manning, Brady, Brees, etc. have never done it. The fact kneeling to end a half or game negates it basically makes it a nothingburger stat. DJ looked good and you can only play the team in front of you. He did that well. But the team in front of him might be the first team I can ever remember that literally looks like it quit before the season even started. Let's see how he does against Denver next week and revisit. I do think Downs could be a buy-low though, as Jones will feed the open guy and he will have his weeks leading the receiving room IMO.

Would also just like to add to the facts list: Egbuka is him. I will take my victory lap after just one week because the season is short and things change fast. So yeah, my WR1B predraft, my WR1 straight up post draft, my most owned WR across all my leagues, and the times I took him at the 3/4 turn validated.

 

[karl.Racki]

Should we be worried with Bijan and that OL.. Really made no holes for him. Thankfully he is such a weapon in the pass attack.

What about Walker? Seems like Zach is ready to be RB1

 

[Snotbubbles]

Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.

Detroit's problems aren't only lack of creation. Their line play both sides of the ball were bad. Maybe the Packers have a dominant defensive line and you can excuse their O Line play, but Green Bay's offensive line is probably middle of the pack (no pun intended) and Detroit couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever. If you give any QB time, it doesn't matter who they are, they're going to carve your defense up.

 

[wgoldsph]

My facts, mirages, and open ended from week one -

Facts:
KC needs wr. It's become a negative WAR position across the board
Just Fields is a top fantasy qb
Derek Henry isn't a human being.
Let Russ be cooked. Just done.
The Bengals don't play well until the first week of fall at the minimum.
Mia will clean house mid season
This one kills me - Pacheco is never gonna be the guy he was two years ago
Sam Darnold is the same guy as he was when he was drafted
Baker has always been an above average qb. He was a rookie, improved in year two (I'm too lazy to look this up so hoping my memory is right) played hurt and then the Browns made the big brain decision to bring in a sex criminal to play qb.

Mirages:
Quentin Justin. He might get double his td total across the rest of the year.
Indy. MIA might be the worst team in football.
Daniel Jones in specific. During his career Jones has consistently preyed on week opponents to the point he was given a lucrative contract. Let him play an average defense before deciding he's good.
Mclaurin as wr2 in Wash. He just needed a week or two to get up to speed after his holdout.


Open ended:
JJustinFields is a QB period? Started his career in a terrible situation and has gotten better each year. Ripped some shots between defenders which I fear might be picked off by better CB, but you can't argue with the sheer velocity.
Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.
Koleman emergence? He looked like the jump ball artist he was billed at coming out of college, but how much was game specific?

Wow... for such a long list I'm surprised how on board I am with just about every single point as well as where you categorized them. Really happy to see the Colts/Jones fall in the mirage category. I do think they have one of the better offensive skill cores in football with Pittman/Downs/JT/Warren (TBD) and that people were way too low on Pittman; but was going to scream at my TV if I heard one more talking head regurgitate that QB stat about scoring on every drive and how Manning, Brady, Brees, etc. have never done it. The fact kneeling to end a half or game negates it basically makes it a nothingburger stat. DJ looked good and you can only play the team in front of you. He did that well. But the team in front of him might be the first team I can ever remember that literally looks like it quit before the season even started. Let's see how he does against Denver next week and revisit. I do think Downs could be a buy-low though, as Jones will feed the open guy and he will have his weeks leading the receiving room IMO.

Would also just like to add to the facts list: Egbuka is him. I will take my victory lap after just one week because the season is short and things change fast. So yeah, my WR1B predraft, my WR1 straight up post draft, my most owned WR across all my leagues, and the times I took him at the 3/4 turn validated.

I have no idea how McDaniels made it into the season looking like this team does.


The Colts remind me of GB on offense. Lots of no2 Wrs, a top rb, uupside te.. They just don't have the qb to put any of it together.

That said, Pittman will never reach the numbers he had earlier in his career ever again. He's not an elite wr, he's not a great wr, he's a good wr that gets a solid target share.

I'm interested in what happens to Godwin when he comes back.

Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.

Detroit's problems aren't only lack of creation. Their line play both sides of the ball were bad. Maybe the Packers have a dominannt defensiv line and you can excuse their O Line play, but Green Bay's offensive line is probably middle of the pack (no pun intended) and Detroit couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever. If you give any QB time, it doesn't matter who they are, they're going to carve your defense up.

Bad play can be covered by good scheming. Both sides of the ball lost the person in charge of doing so.
Det might take a huge step back. Might.

 

[Snotbubbles]

My facts, mirages, and open ended from week one -

Facts:
KC needs wr. It's become a negative WAR position across the board
Just Fields is a top fantasy qb
Derek Henry isn't a human being.
Let Russ be cooked. Just done.
The Bengals don't play well until the first week of fall at the minimum.
Mia will clean house mid season
This one kills me - Pacheco is never gonna be the guy he was two years ago
Sam Darnold is the same guy as he was when he was drafted
Baker has always been an above average qb. He was a rookie, improved in year two (I'm too lazy to look this up so hoping my memory is right) played hurt and then the Browns made the big brain decision to bring in a sex criminal to play qb.

Mirages:
Quentin Justin. He might get double his td total across the rest of the year.
Indy. MIA might be the worst team in football.
Daniel Jones in specific. During his career Jones has consistently preyed on week opponents to the point he was given a lucrative contract. Let him play an average defense before deciding he's good.
Mclaurin as wr2 in Wash. He just needed a week or two to get up to speed after his holdout.


Open ended:
JJustinFields is a QB period? Started his career in a terrible situation and has gotten better each year. Ripped some shots between defenders which I fear might be picked off by better CB, but you can't argue with the sheer velocity.
Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.
Koleman emergence? He looked like the jump ball artist he was billed at coming out of college, but how much was game specific?

Wow... for such a long list I'm surprised how on board I am with just about every single point as well as where you categorized them. Really happy to see the Colts/Jones fall in the mirage category. I do think they have one of the better offensive skill cores in football with Pittman/Downs/JT/Warren (TBD) and that people were way too low on Pittman; but was going to scream at my TV if I heard one more talking head regurgitate that QB stat about scoring on every drive and how Manning, Brady, Brees, etc. have never done it. The fact kneeling to end a half or game negates it basically makes it a nothingburger stat. DJ looked good and you can only play the team in front of you. He did that well. But the team in front of him might be the first team I can ever remember that literally looks like it quit before the season even started. Let's see how he does against Denver next week and revisit. I do think Downs could be a buy-low though, as Jones will feed the open guy and he will have his weeks leading the receiving room IMO.

Would also just like to add to the facts list: Egbuka is him. I will take my victory lap after just one week because the season is short and things change fast. So yeah, my WR1B predraft, my WR1 straight up post draft, my most owned WR across all my leagues, and the times I took him at the 3/4 turn validated.

I have no idea how McDaniels made it into the season looking like this team does.


The Colts remind me of GB on offense. Lots of no2 Wrs, a top rb, uupside te.. They just don't have the qb to put any of it together.

That said, Pittman will never reach the numbers he had earlier in his career ever again. He's not an elite wr, he's not a great wr, he's a good wr that gets a solid target share.

I'm interested in what happens to Godwin when he comes back.

Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.

Detroit's problems aren't only lack of creation. Their line play both sides of the ball were bad. Maybe the Packers have a dominannt defensiv line and you can excuse their O Line play, but Green Bay's offensive line is probably middle of the pack (no pun intended) and Detroit couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever. If you give any QB time, it doesn't matter who they are, they're going to carve your defense up.

Bad play can be covered by good scheming. Both sides of the ball lost the person in charge of doing so.
Det might take a huge step back. Might.

I think Detroit just ran into a buzzsaw week 1. I don't have any doubts their offense will recover, but I'm not so sure about that defense.

 

[ponchsox]

My facts, mirages, and open ended from week one -

Facts:
KC needs wr. It's become a negative WAR position across the board
Just Fields is a top fantasy qb
Derek Henry isn't a human being.
Let Russ be cooked. Just done.
The Bengals don't play well until the first week of fall at the minimum.
Mia will clean house mid season
This one kills me - Pacheco is never gonna be the guy he was two years ago
Sam Darnold is the same guy as he was when he was drafted
Baker has always been an above average qb. He was a rookie, improved in year two (I'm too lazy to look this up so hoping my memory is right) played hurt and then the Browns made the big brain decision to bring in a sex criminal to play qb.

Mirages:
Quentin Justin. He might get double his td total across the rest of the year.
Indy. MIA might be the worst team in football.
Daniel Jones in specific. During his career Jones has consistently preyed on week opponents to the point he was given a lucrative contract. Let him play an average defense before deciding he's good.
Mclaurin as wr2 in Wash. He just needed a week or two to get up to speed after his holdout.


Open ended:
JJustinFields is a QB period? Started his career in a terrible situation and has gotten better each year. Ripped some shots between defenders which I fear might be picked off by better CB, but you can't argue with the sheer velocity.
Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.
Koleman emergence? He looked like the jump ball artist he was billed at coming out of college, but how much was game specific?

Wow... for such a long list I'm surprised how on board I am with just about every single point as well as where you categorized them. Really happy to see the Colts/Jones fall in the mirage category. I do think they have one of the better offensive skill cores in football with Pittman/Downs/JT/Warren (TBD) and that people were way too low on Pittman; but was going to scream at my TV if I heard one more talking head regurgitate that QB stat about scoring on every drive and how Manning, Brady, Brees, etc. have never done it. The fact kneeling to end a half or game negates it basically makes it a nothingburger stat. DJ looked good and you can only play the team in front of you. He did that well. But the team in front of him might be the first team I can ever remember that literally looks like it quit before the season even started. Let's see how he does against Denver next week and revisit. I do think Downs could be a buy-low though, as Jones will feed the open guy and he will have his weeks leading the receiving room IMO.

Would also just like to add to the facts list: Egbuka is him. I will take my victory lap after just one week because the season is short and things change fast. So yeah, my WR1B predraft, my WR1 straight up post draft, my most owned WR across all my leagues, and the times I took him at the 3/4 turn validated.

I have no idea how McDaniels made it into the season looking like this team does.


The Colts remind me of GB on offense. Lots of no2 Wrs, a top rb, uupside te.. They just don't have the qb to put any of it together.

That said, Pittman will never reach the numbers he had earlier in his career ever again. He's not an elite wr, he's not a great wr, he's a good wr that gets a solid target share.

I'm interested in what happens to Godwin when he comes back.

Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.

Detroit's problems aren't only lack of creation. Their line play both sides of the ball were bad. Maybe the Packers have a dominannt defensiv line and you can excuse their O Line play, but Green Bay's offensive line is probably middle of the pack (no pun intended) and Detroit couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever. If you give any QB time, it doesn't matter who they are, they're going to carve your defense up.

Bad play can be covered by good scheming. Both sides of the ball lost the person in charge of doing so.
Det might take a huge step back. Might.

I think Detroit just ran into a buzzsaw week 1. I don't have any doubts their offense will recover, but I'm not so sure about that defense.

We want a bad Lions defense for the passing game.

 

[Smack Tripper]

Frisman Jackson says hi

Quentin Griffin too

 

[TampaMike19]

I should've expected that Week 1 was going to be a **** show just like it has been the past few seasons with less practice and preseason time. For fantasy this was a disaster for a lot of fantasy teams and only a few players really went off. It takes the shine off the hobby and leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

 

[Gally]

All these posts and nothing about Bill. Call me disappointed.

 

[GrantK]

I should've expected that Week 1 was going to be a **** show just like it has been the past few seasons with less practice and preseason time. For fantasy this was a disaster for a lot of fantasy teams and only a few players really went off. It takes the shine off the hobby and leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

In general Sept. football blows, as you said, lack of practice and meaningful pre-season play add up.

 

[pinkstapler]

My facts, mirages, and open ended from week one -

Facts:
KC needs wr. It's become a negative WAR position across the board
Just Fields is a top fantasy qb
Derek Henry isn't a human being.
Let Russ be cooked. Just done.
The Bengals don't play well until the first week of fall at the minimum.
Mia will clean house mid season
This one kills me - Pacheco is never gonna be the guy he was two years ago
Sam Darnold is the same guy as he was when he was drafted
Baker has always been an above average qb. He was a rookie, improved in year two (I'm too lazy to look this up so hoping my memory is right) played hurt and then the Browns made the big brain decision to bring in a sex criminal to play qb.

Mirages:
Quentin Justin. He might get double his td total across the rest of the year.
Indy. MIA might be the worst team in football.
Daniel Jones in specific. During his career Jones has consistently preyed on week opponents to the point he was given a lucrative contract. Let him play an average defense before deciding he's good.
Mclaurin as wr2 in Wash. He just needed a week or two to get up to speed after his holdout.


Open ended:
JJustinFields is a QB period? Started his career in a terrible situation and has gotten better each year. Ripped some shots between defenders which I fear might be picked off by better CB, but you can't argue with the sheer velocity.
Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.
Koleman emergence? He looked like the jump ball artist he was billed at coming out of college, but how much was game specific?

Wow... for such a long list I'm surprised how on board I am with just about every single point as well as where you categorized them. Really happy to see the Colts/Jones fall in the mirage category. I do think they have one of the better offensive skill cores in football with Pittman/Downs/JT/Warren (TBD) and that people were way too low on Pittman; but was going to scream at my TV if I heard one more talking head regurgitate that QB stat about scoring on every drive and how Manning, Brady, Brees, etc. have never done it. The fact kneeling to end a half or game negates it basically makes it a nothingburger stat. DJ looked good and you can only play the team in front of you. He did that well. But the team in front of him might be the first team I can ever remember that literally looks like it quit before the season even started. Let's see how he does against Denver next week and revisit. I do think Downs could be a buy-low though, as Jones will feed the open guy and he will have his weeks leading the receiving room IMO.

Would also just like to add to the facts list: Egbuka is him. I will take my victory lap after just one week because the season is short and things change fast. So yeah, my WR1B predraft, my WR1 straight up post draft, my most owned WR across all my leagues, and the times I took him at the 3/4 turn validated.

I have no idea how McDaniels made it into the season looking like this team does.


The Colts remind me of GB on offense. Lots of no2 Wrs, a top rb, uupside te.. They just don't have the qb to put any of it together.

That said, Pittman will never reach the numbers he had earlier in his career ever again. He's not an elite wr, he's not a great wr, he's a good wr that gets a solid target share.

I'm interested in what happens to Godwin when he comes back.

Det offense. Losing Ben Johnsons creative play calling highlights the massive turnover on the o-line. Luckily GB might just be an elite defense, and we forget this exists by Oct.

Detroit's problems aren't only lack of creation. Their line play both sides of the ball were bad. Maybe the Packers have a dominannt defensiv line and you can excuse their O Line play, but Green Bay's offensive line is probably middle of the pack (no pun intended) and Detroit couldn't muster any pressure whatsoever. If you give any QB time, it doesn't matter who they are, they're going to carve your defense up.

Bad play can be covered by good scheming. Both sides of the ball lost the person in charge of doing so.
Det might take a huge step back. Might.

I would disagree on Pittman but probably splitting hairs. I do think he's a great WR, would be excellent possession guy, can win against any coverage, could cover as a teams WR1 for some weeks but would be best as a teams WR2. And I'd have him over most other WR2s in the league, but I've always been on the higher side of Pittman since he got drafted. I was always hoping he'd leave the Colts dumpster and find himself into a Shannahan/McVay offense where his consistency, precision, and workers mentality would fit like a glove running underneath routes slants/digs/curls and in the elite groups with regards to beating press off the line. Only real weakness is he's not a burner, routes against man coverage success takes a hit on deep routes, and never been much of a YAC monster. Coincidentally, all this is also why he jumped up my ranks once Indy announced DJ as the starter over AR. It fits where DJ tends to win as a QB well.

All that said, I do think Downs has the higher upside and is the more complete version of Pittman if he just got a fair shot.

 

[steelwind]

Everyone settle down.
The only overreaction from week 1 are injuries: Worthy, London, Kittle, Bowers, Waddle

Week 1 is preseason for lots of vets/star players that sat out-even those who did get preseason action, nobody played 4 full quarters of football.
Alot of top ADP players are on playoff bound teams. It's a 17 game season and with playoffs, makes sense if they ease them into week 1.
Start the players you drafted in week 2.

 

[ProstheticRGK]

Don’t overreact?!?! What else am I supposed to do? It’s football season and there’s not another game on for 9 more hours.

Anyone wanna take AJ Brown or KWIII off my hands? I’ll take Quentin Johnston or Josh Palmer.

 

[wgoldsph]

Don’t overreact?!?! What else am I supposed to do? It’s football season and there’s not another game on for 9 more hours.

Anyone wanna take AJ Brown or KWIII off my hands? I’ll take Quentin Johnston or Josh Palmer.

I'll trade Burrow for Daniel Jones!

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I won my week somehow thanks to Mayfield and Kaimi freakin Fairbairn. Certainly no thanks to Chase, BTJ, McBride or KW3. Not panicked at all but man that was a grim start.

 

[Statorama]

I won my week somehow thanks to Mayfield and Kaimi freakin Fairbairn. Certainly no thanks to Chase, BTJ, McBride or KW3. Not panicked at all but man that was a grim start.

I also had Baker and Fairbairn but ran into a buzz saw week one. I was kind of glum about the outcome, but then this thread came along and cheered me up!

And hey...if DJ Moore can have a career night tonight I just might eek out a win. Glass half full!

 

[LionOfGosforth]

I won my week somehow thanks to Mayfield and Kaimi freakin Fairbairn. Certainly no thanks to Chase, BTJ, McBride or KW3. Not panicked at all but man that was a grim start.

I also had Baker and Fairbairn but ran into a buzz saw week one. I was kind of glum about the outcome, but then this thread came along and cheered me up!

And hey...if DJ Moore can have a career night tonight I just might eek out a win. Glass half full!

It sucks when you've done all your research and think you've got a great group of players then they proceed to do nothing. I can't even begin to try to explain why Jamar Chase and Brian Thomas had 3 catches for less than 40 yards between them. Good luck tonight!

 

[Deamon]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

I doubt it's season ending or anything given that he walked out on his own. He migh miss a week or 2.

were they going to wheel him out on a stretcher with a shoulder issue???

 

[fatness]

Don't be picking up the Washington defense just yet. They played a really lousy offense in week 1. See how they do against the Packers on Thursday.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

How about Worthy? Can I overreact to that?

I doubt it's season ending or anything given that he walked out on his own. He migh miss a week or 2.

were they going to wheel him out on a stretcher with a shoulder issue???

Clearly! I could be wrong but wasn't he listed as questionable? For a serious injury wouldn't he be a doubtful or immediately ruled out?

This local news article says he's rehabbing and I looked up the injury report (which cites rotoworld) in one of my leagues and he still has a questionable tag. It says

Reid describes Worthy (shoulder) as day-to-day​

Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Xavier Worthy (shoulder) is “day to day.”
Advice: NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport believes this is an indication that “the plan is to rehab and attempt to play with a brace -- rather than immediate surgery.” We’ll see how well Worthy plays through the obvious limitations — his practice statuses this week should be among the most-monitored — but it sounds like there’s at least a chance he’s able to be ready for the Eagles in Week 2.

so it doesn't sound too bad.