Down by 10 with 40 seconds to go (1 Viewer)

[CalBear]

I think Schwartz made a similar decision in week 14 against the Packers with the only difference being the Lions were on the 20 and had less time. Personally I disagreed with both head coaches. I'm of the opinion you keep trying for the TD you know you are going to need while you have downs to burn.

OK, so it's first down on the 30 yard line with 15 seconds left, down by 10. Keep going for the TD?Time is way more valuable than downs in this situation. (That's why the QB spikes the ball on first down).

 

[voiceofunreason]

Whoever here chose the TD route, do you really think you're smarter than Bill Belichick?Really?

No, they think they're smarter than [insert name of other coach who made the opposite decision].Belichick has not done extensive statistical analysis on this situation. The difference, if any would be between something like a 5% chance of winning and a 5.5% chance of winning. There's not an obvious answer for anyone, including the all-powerful, all-knowing Belichick, oh, and wasn't he also going to figure out how to stop Colin Kaepernick?

4 fumbles, an interception and over 200 yards passing, Kaepernick was awesome.

 

[renesauz]

I think the poll is flwed, as the spot on the field is key to the decision.

First down at the 15? I'm trying to score 7.

First down at the 25? I'm kicking it if my kicker is hot and reliable.

First down at the 32? I'm uncomfortable kicking it, and I'm going for another sideline route or two.

Not sure there is right answer regardless of postion though.

 

[renesauz]

I think the poll is flwed, as the spot on the field is key to the decision.

First down at the 15? I'm trying to score 7.

First down at the 25? I'm kicking it if my kicker is hot and reliable.

First down at the 32? I'm uncomfortable kicking it, and I'm going for another sideline route or two.

Not sure there is right answer regardless of postion though.

 

[CalBear]

Whoever here chose the TD route, do you really think you're smarter than Bill Belichick?Really?

No, they think they're smarter than [insert name of other coach who made the opposite decision].Belichick has not done extensive statistical analysis on this situation. The difference, if any would be between something like a 5% chance of winning and a 5.5% chance of winning. There's not an obvious answer for anyone, including the all-powerful, all-knowing Belichick, oh, and wasn't he also going to figure out how to stop Colin Kaepernick?

4 fumbles, an interception and over 200 yards passing, Kaepernick was awesome.

Alex, I know you have lots of time on your hands these days, but go do it over in the Kaepernick thread. This thread is about Belichick's decision to kick a FG. It may or may not have been correct. He gets way too much credit for the supposed brilliance of his coaching decisions.

 

[thatguy]

Whoever here chose the TD route, do you really think you're smarter than Bill Belichick?Really?

No, they think they're smarter than [insert name of other coach who made the opposite decision].Belichick has not done extensive statistical analysis on this situation. The difference, if any would be between something like a 5% chance of winning and a 5.5% chance of winning. There's not an obvious answer for anyone, including the all-powerful, all-knowing Belichick, oh, and wasn't he also going to figure out how to stop Colin Kaepernick?

4 fumbles, an interception and over 200 yards passing, Kaepernick was awesome.

Conveniently, you forgot to mention 4 passing TD's, 8.64 YPA, and 7 rushes for 28 yards.

 

[BaBastage]

I'll give BB the benefit of knowing the stats better than me, but from a layman's perspective, it depends on what yard marker I was at.

From barely within FG range, I take the FG. If I'm inside the 30 yard line, I go for the TD.

My rational being that I like my chances of hitting the TD from the 30, then only having to complete 1 or 2 short passes after the onsides' kick with 15-20 seconds, than to make the FG, then get a TD from the 50-ish yard line with 30 seconds left.

 

[packseasontix]

The reason you kick the FG first is that you're already in FG range. This is sonething that you may not be able to achieve even if you recover the onside kick. I've heard lots of commentators say "That sack takes them out of FG range". Never once have I heard of a team being out of TD range.

Couple stats for you:Brady is52% inside the 1060% inside the 2064% from the 20-4964% from midfield to own 20Inside the 20 on 45/74 with 21 touchdownsHe throws 28% of his passes for Touchdowns inside the 20 (which he was at the 23 just outside this range)Very cool informationhttp://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/two-minute-drill.htmlYou wil note on the graph its with 2:00 not :40 but your chances go from about 56% chance of a TD on the 23 down to 34% when your on your own 40 starting out. This would be DRAMATICALLY less most likely if it were skewed to the :40 left time frame.Also note you are about a 50% chance for a FG when starting on your own 40, again this is was 2mins remaining and this as well would go down depending on WHEN you scored the TD.

 

[thatguy]

The reason you kick the FG first is that you're already in FG range. This is sonething that you may not be able to achieve even if you recover the onside kick. I've heard lots of commentators say "That sack takes them out of FG range". Never once have I heard of a team being out of TD range.

Couple stats for you:Brady is

52% inside the 10

60% inside the 20

64% from the 20-49

64% from midfield to own 20

Inside the 20 on 45/74 with 21 touchdowns

He throws 28% of his passes for Touchdowns inside the 20 (which he was at the 23 just outside this range)

Very cool information

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/two-minute-drill.html

You wil note on the graph its with 2:00 not :40 but your chances go from about 56% chance of a TD on the 23 down to 34% when your on your own 40 starting out. This would be DRAMATICALLY less most likely if it were skewed to the :40 left time frame.



Also note you are about a 50% chance for a FG when starting on your own 40, again this is was 2mins remaining and this as well would go down depending on WHEN you scored the TD.

The bolded is actually rather interesting. Ignoring the time difference, with a 0.56 probably of success when going for the TD, and assuming a successful onside kick then, a 0.5 probability of successfully getting a FG (I am assuming that means not only getting into range but converting said FG), the probably of a tying the game (again taking the onside kick as a given) is 0.28.

On the flip side, also ignoring the time difference, let's say the probability of making a 40 yard field goal is 0.8 (which based on what data I could find is about right), and then again assume onside kick is converted, and a 0.34 probability of scoring a TD, the probability of tying the game is 0.272.

So, the odds are almost exactly the same no matter which order you choose. However, if that 0.5 in the first case simply implies getting in position to kick a FG, then we're looking at 0.56 probability of TD, 0.5 probability of getting into FG position, and we'll just assume 40 yard FG, so 0.8 probability of successful conversion, the probability of tying the game drops to 0.224.

I'm not sure which case is right, as I didn't look into the charts/data you linked to, but I found it interesting nonetheless how if we assume the first case to be accurate, and of course assume the data you provided to be accurate, it makes almost no difference which order is chosen (with 2 minutes remaining, anyway--my guess is that as the time remaining decreases, option 2 becomes more and more favorable.

ETA: Of course this is all rather simplistic because it fails to take into account how long it takes to score in the first case, and thus the fact that there would be less than 2 minutes remaining to get the FG, which, if nothing else, lends further credence to option 2 being the best choice, which in this case is FG and then TD.

 

[CalBear]

I'm not sure which case is right, as I didn't look into the charts/data you linked to, but I found it interesting nonetheless how if we assume the first case to be accurate, and of course assume the data you provided to be accurate, it makes almost no difference which order is chosen (with 2 minutes remaining, anyway--my guess is that as the time remaining decreases, option 2 becomes more and more favorable.

This is almost certainly true in the absolute sense; it would be shocking to see the difference be as large as, say, increasing your chances from 3% to 6%. But if increases your chances from 3% to 3.6%, that's a 20% improvement, which is probably enough to make it the right call.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Yep, you kick the FG and hope for the onside kick.

This reminds me of the Titans/Colts game two years ago where it was 30-21, the Titans had the ball 1st and goal with like 25 or 30 seconds left and Jeff Fisher spent the entire time getting the touchdown (they scored on the last play of the game, losing 30-28, and giving themselves ZERO shot to win). I remember thinking, "Man, how dumb is he?"

 

[thatguy]

I'm not sure which case is right, as I didn't look into the charts/data you linked to, but I found it interesting nonetheless how if we assume the first case to be accurate, and of course assume the data you provided to be accurate, it makes almost no difference which order is chosen (with 2 minutes remaining, anyway--my guess is that as the time remaining decreases, option 2 becomes more and more favorable.

This is almost certainly true in the absolute sense; it would be shocking to see the difference be as large as, say, increasing your chances from 3% to 6%. But if increases your chances from 3% to 3.6%, that's a 20% improvement, which is probably enough to make it the right call.

Agreed. In the hypothetical I set up using his data, with TD-FG having P=0.28 and FG-TD having P=0.272 with both cases assuming a successful onside kick, the advantage of going TD-FG is ~2.94% which is rather insignificant. However, i believe that given the simplicity of the 'model' I used, especially with time off the clock used to score the TD first not being taken into account, FG-TD is almost certainly substantially more favorable, and probably significantly so as you stated.

 

[Sea Duck]

Yep, you kick the FG and hope for the onside kick. This reminds me of the Titans/Colts game two years ago where it was 30-21, the Titans had the ball 1st and goal with like 25 or 30 seconds left and Jeff Fisher spent the entire time getting the touchdown (they scored on the last play of the game, losing 30-28, and giving themselves ZERO shot to win). I remember thinking, "Man, how dumb is he?"

It's even dumber when you consider that they were down by 9 points (instead of 10), virtually eliminating the need to go to overtime.They had 1st and Goal from the 8 yard line with 27 seconds left.......and threw a 6 yard pass! http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201012090oti.htm

 

[Perfect Tommy]

Belichick blew it. He needs to go the for quick TD from the 23 yard line. When they get the TD, go for the 2-pt conversion so they will not have to face overtime and know whether they win with a FG or need another TD. The biggest factor is that if they fail to score the TD on their first few plays, they still have the opportunity to take the FG on 4th down. BB is the best in the NFL at making these decisions but he is still far from being perfect. I am perfect.

 

[TobiasFunke]

This last post is kind of nutty, but it's fascinating that it does the one thing that no other post did- accounts for the possibility of a win in regulation.

I don't know the right answer because I'm not aware of any compiled data that allows you to make an informed decision. But I do know that the analysis needs to account for the fact that if you go for the TD first, you leave yourself with a greater than zero chance to win the game in regulation instead of facing the 50/50 proposition of overtime.

 

[CalBear]

This last post is kind of nutty, but it's fascinating that it does the one thing that no other post did- accounts for the possibility of a win in regulation.I don't know the right answer because I'm not aware of any compiled data that allows you to make an informed decision. But I do know that the analysis needs to account for the fact that if you go for the TD first, you leave yourself with a greater than zero chance to win the game in regulation instead of facing the 50/50 proposition of overtime.

My non-nutty post early in the thread accounted for this and discounted it as an edge case; if you score a TD and get the ball back after recovering an onsides kick with less than 30 seconds left, the odds of scoring a TD are extremely small because play-calling will be oriented towards getting a FG (and defense will be oriented towards not allowing a TD).

 

[TobiasFunke]

This last post is kind of nutty, but it's fascinating that it does the one thing that no other post did- accounts for the possibility of a win in regulation.I don't know the right answer because I'm not aware of any compiled data that allows you to make an informed decision. But I do know that the analysis needs to account for the fact that if you go for the TD first, you leave yourself with a greater than zero chance to win the game in regulation instead of facing the 50/50 proposition of overtime.

My non-nutty post early in the thread accounted for this and discounted it as an edge case; if you score a TD and get the ball back after recovering an onsides kick with less than 30 seconds left, the odds of scoring a TD are extremely small because play-calling will be oriented towards getting a FG (and defense will be oriented towards not allowing a TD).

Sorry, I missed that. Yeah, I agree it's small, but I don't know if it's so small that it can be discounted. I guess it would depend if you had any time outs. If you didn't the motivation would be to get to the sideline above all else including extra yardage. But if you did I could easily see a play designed to put you in field goal range getting you close to the end zone, allowing for a TO and a couple shots to win the game.