Doyle and Ebron - I don't get it. (1 Viewer)

[emerlin]

I just read Dodd's nice article on the Perfect 12 PPR draft.  I always enjoy reading these to get another perspective.  It seems to me that the opinions on Doyle and Ebron are among the most varied this year at any position among the prognosticators.  David has Doyle ranked 3 rounds ahead of Ebron.  I have seen Doyle to all over the place depending on format, in some as early as 5....  Ebron's ADP seems to float all over as well.  Other sites have this same kind of almost 1,2 relationship between Doyle and Ebron.  Other say Doyle has dominated 90% of the snap count in the preseason so Ebron is not a factor...  I suppose that number has changed after his Week 3 performance.  I suspect his ADP  is climbing up - especially in TE premium.

I guess my point, and what I don't get, how can they both be fantasy relevant?  I am starting to believe it will be neither and a situation to avoid.  I just think they are going to water each other down to the point where neither is valuable.  At the very least - not valuable on any consistent starting basis.  Perhaps they are both going to be on the field at the same time with Doyle filling the traditional TE.  Perhaps they rob from the WR2 production.  Is it possible Ebron will finish with better numbers than Doyle and be the real upside play here.  Perhaps this is the reincarnation of Gronk and Hernandez....

Ebron is scaring me off Doyle as a TE1.... making wonder if this is a TE situation to avoid all together.  Can somebody walk me off the ledge?  I appreciate any responses.

 

[shadrap]

I just read Dodd's nice article on the Perfect 12 PPR draft.  I always enjoy reading these to get another perspective.  It seems to me that the opinions on Doyle and Ebron are among the most varied this year at any position among the prognosticators.  David has Doyle ranked 3 rounds ahead of Ebron.  I have seen Doyle to all over the place depending on format, in some as early as 5....  Ebron's ADP seems to float all over as well.  Other sites have this same kind of almost 1,2 relationship between Doyle and Ebron.  Other say Doyle has dominated 90% of the snap count in the preseason so Ebron is not a factor...  I suppose that number has changed after his Week 3 performance.  I suspect his ADP  is climbing up - especially in TE premium.

I guess my point, and what I don't get, how can they both be fantasy relevant?  I am starting to believe it will be neither and a situation to avoid.  I just think they are going to water each other down to the point where neither is valuable.  At the very least - not valuable on any consistent starting basis.  Perhaps they are both going to be on the field at the same time with Doyle filling the traditional TE.  Perhaps they rob from the WR2 production.  Is it possible Ebron will finish with better numbers than Doyle and be the real upside play here.  Perhaps this is the reincarnation of Gronk and Hernandez....

Ebron is scaring me off Doyle as a TE1.... making wonder if this is a TE situation to avoid all together.  Can somebody walk me off the ledge?  I appreciate any responses.

I don't have much except I agree with you.  We won't really know much until a few games into the season.

 

[Aunt Jemima]

I just read Dodd's nice article on the Perfect 12 PPR draft.  I always enjoy reading these to get another perspective.  It seems to me that the opinions on Doyle and Ebron are among the most varied this year at any position among the prognosticators.  David has Doyle ranked 3 rounds ahead of Ebron.  I have seen Doyle to all over the place depending on format, in some as early as 5....  Ebron's ADP seems to float all over as well.  Other sites have this same kind of almost 1,2 relationship between Doyle and Ebron.  Other say Doyle has dominated 90% of the snap count in the preseason so Ebron is not a factor...  I suppose that number has changed after his Week 3 performance.  I suspect his ADP  is climbing up - especially in TE premium.

I guess my point, and what I don't get, how can they both be fantasy relevant?  I am starting to believe it will be neither and a situation to avoid.  I just think they are going to water each other down to the point where neither is valuable.  At the very least - not valuable on any consistent starting basis.  Perhaps they are both going to be on the field at the same time with Doyle filling the traditional TE.  Perhaps they rob from the WR2 production.  Is it possible Ebron will finish with better numbers than Doyle and be the real upside play here.  Perhaps this is the reincarnation of Gronk and Hernandez....

Ebron is scaring me off Doyle as a TE1.... making wonder if this is a TE situation to avoid all together.  Can somebody walk me off the ledge?  I appreciate any responses.

well beyond Hilton the Colts don't have much of anything at WR, they will likely run a lot of 2 TE sets and it isn't like this offense hasn't in the past. Two (I would argue) much less talented TE's named Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener had some success here at the same time. I don't think either guy will be top 5 but they have the potential to both finish in the top 12 if things break right. I don't see it as an avoid myself

 

[Nero]

I personally don't think Ebron is a threat to Doyle's TE1 status.  I think Ebron fits in as competing to be the #3 target which still may not be fantasy relevant.  Grant, Rogers, Mack, Wilkins are Ebron's competition for the 3rd target, so he has a fair chance at being number 3.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Walking you off the ledge is something completely different from talking you off it.

Let's keep this simple. Ebron is terrible.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Perhaps they are both going to be on the field at the same time with Doyle filling the traditional TE. Perhaps they rob from the WR2 production. Is it possible Ebron will finish with better numbers than Doyle and be the real upside play here. Perhaps this is the reincarnation of Gronk and Hernandez....

Reich ran the 5th most 12 personnel packages (23%, the average was 19%) and the 3rd most 13 personnel packages (10%, average was 5%) in PHI last year. Given IND's personnel, they will very likely be on the field at the same time at a rate above the NFL average. This is the thinnest IND's WRs have been since I can remember, Grant is not good. They won't be Gronk and Hernandez, it's unlikely they will both finish as TE1s. However, it wouldn't even remotely surprise me if they ended up being 2nd (Doyle) and 3rd (Ebron) in the pecking order behind Hilton or even 2A and 2B. I think Doyle is still a fine target in ppr leagues and that Ebron is a good late round flyer in deeper leagues that place a premium on TEs like in ffpc. 

 

[TripItUp]

Both are currently overvalued IMHO.

 

[Biabreakable]

Jack Doyle had an amazing season last year catching 80 of 108 targets. 80 receptions is good for a WR even more so for a TE. It is not completely out of the blue either as Doyle had 59 receptions on 75 targets in 2016 as well. What little I have seen of Doyle playing, he does not seem exceptionally talented. Just a solid player. The volume he saw last season was due to the lack of other receiving options and Jacoby Brisset having some Doyle tunnel vision.

Andrew Luck has been a QB to use the TE frequently in his history as well, going all the way back to college. Luck will be able to use their other weapons better than Brisstt does and Doyles market share will not be as high this season. It should still be good though. A decline in targets for Doyle from Luck may come with better yards per reception. So with less volume maybe he still comes close to what he did last year as far as total yards or yards per game.

Eric Ebron is faster than Doyle and due to the lack of other WR options besides Hilton, Ebron may become like their WR two, with Doyle holding down the blocking TE spot and Ebron split out in the formation. In single RB sets there will still be another WR (Grant or Rogers?) but it is possible that Ebron is a better receiver than these guys and gets more targets.

Even without Ebron in play I think you would project Doyle for fewer targets than what he had in 2017. With Ebron that haircut perhaps a bit more. At the same time I do think Doyle may have a safe floor of receptions based on what he did in 2016 59 receptions, so I don't see Doyle having less than 50 receptions in 2018.

For a TE 50 receptions is still good. Last season ASJ had 50 receptions which was 13th most for a TE in 2018. In 2017 50 receptions was tied for 18th most for a TE and similar in 2016 as well.

So while Doyle is likely to do less this season than last, it is still a decent floor projection, with some upside for more if Ebron and other receivers fail to step up in the offense.

Eric Ebron has been a disappointment mostly because of the high expectations because of how high he was drafted. As an outsider he does not seem to fully apply himself or have the desire to be great. He has concentration drops and just doesn't give full effort. He is very talented though and he had 53 receptions last season as well as 61 receptions in 2016 so he is in this top 18 TE conversation as well.

It is possible that both players see some decline in their productivity due to cannibalizing each others opportunities.  However the lack of other options makes this look like both TE could perhaps finish in the top 15 but neither cracks the top 8 in terms of receptions and fantasy points.

This makes both players valuable in formats that require you start two TE or have other incentives to play two TE such as a flex option and premium scoring on TE receptions. In traditional 12 team leagues both TE are outside the top 12 looking in unless one of them gets hurt giving the other more targets.

 

[Ilov80s]

Both are currently overvalued IMHO.

Yeah this is an easy situation to avoid for me. Two subpar TEs who are almost sure to cut into each other. I'm not saying one of them won't end up as like TE8 but that has to be about the ceiling and there is a lot of risk that comes with that bet. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Eric Ebron has been a disappointment mostly because of the high expectations because of how high he was drafted. As an outsider he does not seem to fully apply himself or have the desire to be great. He has concentration drops and just doesn't give full effort. He is very talented though and he had 53 receptions last season as well as 61 receptions in 2016 so he is in this top 18 TE conversation as well.

This is good analysis. If Ebron had been drafted in the 2nd or 3rd round, he would be seen as a player that has been developing pretty well. It's rare for a TE to have 2000+ yards and 10+ TDs at the age of 24. He has been very immature and hasn't come across as a hard worker. He seemed really overconfident in interviews early in his career. When things didn't go as well as he hoped, he didn't seem to handle it well. He clearly rubbed staff and some teammates the wrong way. He seemed really unhappy here for the last couple years. He does have some talent, he is smooth for a guy of his size. However, he drops a lot of easy passes and he is not at all explosive. 

 

[TripItUp]

Yeah this is an easy situation to avoid for me. Two subpar TEs who are almost sure to cut into each other. I'm not saying one of them won't end up as like TE8 but that has to be about the ceiling and there is a lot of risk that comes with that bet. 

correct, serious ceiling issues here.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Draft doyle.....btw i think that article was a very weak effort this year

 

[gabes1919]

Luck could absolutely support both guys as TE1s, I’m pretty sure he did it in 2014 with Allen and Fleener. However, he probably cannot support them both as TE1s in the same week. My guess is that the #2 target on a weekly basis is the TE du jour and the #2 target overall on the year, barring any additions or injuries, ends up being whatever RB finally gets their #### together. Luck likes to throw to the TE but what he really likes to do is dump to the RB in the red zone 

 

[emerlin]

well beyond Hilton the Colts don't have much of anything at WR, they will likely run a lot of 2 TE sets and it isn't like this offense hasn't in the past. Two (I would argue) much less talented TE's named Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener had some success here at the same time. I don't think either guy will be top 5 but they have the potential to both finish in the top 12 if things break right. I don't see it as an avoid myself

I like this - I guess I would not feel great paying Doyle's adp price for top 12.  I think most people are looking for more.

You are spot on about Allen and Fleener.  Thanks 

 

[emerlin]

Jack Doyle had an amazing season last year catching 80 of 108 targets. 80 receptions is good for a WR even more so for a TE. It is not completely out of the blue either as Doyle had 59 receptions on 75 targets in 2016 as well. What little I have seen of Doyle playing, he does not seem exceptionally talented. Just a solid player. The volume he saw last season was due to the lack of other receiving options and Jacoby Brisset having some Doyle tunnel vision.

Andrew Luck has been a QB to use the TE frequently in his history as well, going all the way back to college. Luck will be able to use their other weapons better than Brisstt does and Doyles market share will not be as high this season. It should still be good though. A decline in targets for Doyle from Luck may come with better yards per reception. So with less volume maybe he still comes close to what he did last year as far as total yards or yards per game.

Eric Ebron is faster than Doyle and due to the lack of other WR options besides Hilton, Ebron may become like their WR two, with Doyle holding down the blocking TE spot and Ebron split out in the formation. In single RB sets there will still be another WR (Grant or Rogers?) but it is possible that Ebron is a better receiver than these guys and gets more targets.

Even without Ebron in play I think you would project Doyle for fewer targets than what he had in 2017. With Ebron that haircut perhaps a bit more. At the same time I do think Doyle may have a safe floor of receptions based on what he did in 2016 59 receptions, so I don't see Doyle having less than 50 receptions in 2018.

For a TE 50 receptions is still good. Last season ASJ had 50 receptions which was 13th most for a TE in 2018. In 2017 50 receptions was tied for 18th most for a TE and similar in 2016 as well.

So while Doyle is likely to do less this season than last, it is still a decent floor projection, with some upside for more if Ebron and other receivers fail to step up in the offense.

Eric Ebron has been a disappointment mostly because of the high expectations because of how high he was drafted. As an outsider he does not seem to fully apply himself or have the desire to be great. He has concentration drops and just doesn't give full effort. He is very talented though and he had 53 receptions last season as well as 61 receptions in 2016 so he is in this top 18 TE conversation as well.

It is possible that both players see some decline in their productivity due to cannibalizing each others opportunities.  However the lack of other options makes this look like both TE could perhaps finish in the top 15 but neither cracks the top 8 in terms of receptions and fantasy points.

This makes both players valuable in formats that require you start two TE or have other incentives to play two TE such as a flex option and premium scoring on TE receptions. In traditional 12 team leagues both TE are outside the top 12 looking in unless one of them gets hurt giving the other more targets.

Thank you for this - I think you reasoning is solid and I agree.  Probably confirmation bias on my part.   I suspect most who draft Doyle in TE premium are looking for more than a flex option.

 

[Biabreakable]

Thank you for this - I think you reasoning is solid and I agree.  Probably confirmation bias on my part.   I suspect most who draft Doyle in TE premium are looking for more than a flex option.

Maybe some are.

I know some projections are based only on last seasons stats.

There is still a lot of good support in Luck/weak WR group for Doyle to finish well even if he only has 60 receptions this year. So maybe he is being over drafted if the expectation is higher than that based off of last season, but Doyle is solid enough that he should be in that top 12. Just depends on where people drafted him I guess.

 

[Bojang0301]

Averaging out Reich’s history seems to indicate last year not being unique as far as TE targets goes. 3 out of 4 years he’s had TE’s combined for over 150 targets and TE 1 over 90 targets with a low of 85. 

I haven’t adjusted my projections as much as I would like (I don’t get paid to do so like Mike Clay) but when I came up with them I did struggle to guess the split between Ebron and Doyle. Burton’s use compares to Ertz’s last year was out of necessity and SD never seemed to have much interest in increasing Henry’s role over Gates until late last year. When I originally had my projections Doyle had a positive VBD and was one of the last positively valued VBD’s to come off my board but that changed as other projections changed and I do have them eating into each other.

All that being said I would bet more on Doyle who plays inline vs Ebron who will have to eat into the slot or other WR’s snaps. I have the total TE targets for Indy at 163 so if either gets hurt it’s going to open up a major opportunity for one of the two. I believe they are both worth rostering but maybe not starting until we get to see how target distribution goes and even so you may be playing roulette week to week. Anyway these are my projections:

Doyle 85 targets 54 rec 608 yd 6 TD

Ebron 70 targets 43 rec 477 yd 6 TD

 

[Elevencents]

Not sure why you don’t think 2 TE’s can coexist on one team. It has happened before. And Indy has a whole lot of nothing outside of TY. Grabbed Doyle in the 17th as Kelce’s backup. Never expected him to fall that far. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Averaging out Reich’s history seems to indicate last year not being unique as far as TE targets goes. 3 out of 4 years he’s had TE’s combined for over 150 targets and TE 1 over 90 targets with a low of 85. 

I haven’t adjusted my projections as much as I would like (I don’t get paid to do so like Mike Clay) but when I came up with them I did struggle to guess the split between Ebron and Doyle. Burton’s use compares to Ertz’s last year was out of necessity and SD never seemed to have much interest in increasing Henry’s role over Gates until late last year. When I originally had my projections Doyle had a positive VBD and was one of the last positively valued VBD’s to come off my board but that changed as other projections changed and I do have them eating into each other.

All that being said I would bet more on Doyle who plays inline vs Ebron who will have to eat into the slot or other WR’s snaps. I have the total TE targets for Indy at 163 so if either gets hurt it’s going to open up a major opportunity for one of the two. I believe they are both worth rostering but maybe not starting until we get to see how target distribution goes and even so you may be playing roulette week to week. Anyway these are my projections:

Doyle 85 targets 54 rec 608 yd 6 TD

Ebron 70 targets 43 rec 477 yd 6 TD

Your catch rate for Ebron is 3% lower than his career average of 64.6% but pretty much right there at 63% for Doyle.

Your yards per reception is right there with Ebrons career average 11.1 but high for Doyle at 11.2 when his career average is 8.5

The TD seem high for Ebron. He had 61 receptions in 2016 but only scored once. Doyle is the larger red zone target. Neither of them have scored more than 5 times in a season.

 

[Bojang0301]

Your catch rate for Ebron is 3% lower than his career average of 64.6% but pretty much right there at 63% for Doyle.

Your yards per reception is right there with Ebrons career average 11.1 but high for Doyle at 11.2 when his career average is 8.5

The TD seem high for Ebron. He had 61 receptions in 2016 but only scored once. Doyle is the larger red zone target. Neither of them have scored more than 5 times in a season.

Has to go somewhere. I have Luck at 30 TD’s and at a 5% TD rate which is his career average and I believe to be low. I see none of the WR’s or RB’s as great red zone options and none have shown proficiency for it. Doyle I estimated high on YPC to represent greater efficiency. I understand his career numbers with YPC aren’t great but it’s an extreme outlier to league average TE’s to be down at 8.5 or 8.6. It would probably be more fair to have him around 10-10.5 but once again where am I putting Rogers and Grant, two other players who have lousy career averages. So I had to make concessions for where Luck put the ball and who was more efficient. Projections are not an exact science. I know you don’t mean it as an attack but I’m also offering up something that I put a lot of time and thought into. Your post is a reflection of why I wouldn’t put my total projections up. 

 

[Bojang0301]

And for the record I think one of the two of them could have double digit TD’s given this assortment of “WR’s”.

 

[Biabreakable]

Has to go somewhere. I have Luck at 30 TD’s and at a 5% TD rate which is his career average and I believe to be low. I see none of the WR’s or RB’s as great red zone options and none have shown proficiency for it. Doyle I estimated high on YPC to represent greater efficiency. I understand his career numbers with YPC aren’t great but it’s an extreme outlier to league average TE’s to be down at 8.5 or 8.6. It would probably be more fair to have him around 10-10.5 but once again where am I putting Rogers and Grant, two other players who have lousy career averages. So I had to make concessions for where Luck put the ball and who was more efficient. Projections are not an exact science. I know you don’t mean it as an attack but I’m also offering up something that I put a lot of time and thought into. Your post is a reflection of why I wouldn’t put my total projections up. 

I was just offering another way to try to do the projections that I use, which would be career averages, and your projections aligned with that in some cases and in other cases it didn't.

Thats all.

I think it is reasonable to expect something like yards per reception to increase for Doyle, as most of his career averages are derived from him being thrown to by Brisset who isn't as good as Luck. Makes sense to me.

The overall team projection would make more clear what you think Lucks total pass attempts would be and how those are being distributed. 155 targets for both of these TE seems reasonable to me under the circumstances, although I do think that is on the high end of team targets for an average team by 25 or so, it makes sense considering the personnel and how Luck has used 2 TE as receivers in the past as well.

Sorry if you though my post was meant as a challenge or something. It wasn't. I just figured to discuss the numbers you put out there and if they make sense or not. For the most part I think they do.

 

[Bojang0301]

I was just offering another way to try to do the projections that I use, which would be career averages, and your projections aligned with that in some cases and in other cases it didn't.

Thats all.

I think it is reasonable to expect something like yards per reception to increase for Doyle, as most of his career averages are derived from him being thrown to by Brisset who isn't as good as Luck. Makes sense to me.

The overall team projection would make more clear what you think Lucks total pass attempts would be and how those are being distributed. 155 targets for both of these TE seems reasonable to me under the circumstances, although I do think that is on the high end of team targets for an average team by 25 or so, it makes sense considering the personnel and how Luck has used 2 TE as receivers in the past as well.

Sorry if you though my post was meant as a challenge or something. It wasn't. I just figured to discuss the numbers you put out there and if they make sense or not. For the most part I think they do.

No worries. I know it wasn’t. Things don’t always translate well through text. Trust me, I heavily rely on career averages but I also rely on offensive coordinator averages. Reich is not a direct descendent of the Reid tree but I found Nagy, Pederson, Reid and Reich leaned on the TE heavy. Suggested even more so by the Bears, Eagles and Colts off season moves to grab an athletic move TE (though I believe Goedert can be a two way TE). These are definitely teams to target when hunting for TE targets. I try not to concern myself much with efficiency anymore. Efficiency comes when you chase targets and I believe you are doing exactly that when chasing Colts TE’s.

 

[JuniorGong]

I grabbed Doyle with the 152 pick in my draft, happy with it.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Ebron sucks

HTH

 

[prgromek]

I've been all over Ebron.

don't overthink it.  Ebron is very talented and has the opportunity and a clear path to targets.

Doyle is keeping his price down.

 

[Deamon]

I'm with you, I have no clue what to think.  It seems the responses in here paint the same picture of this having many possible outcomes.  I still like Doyle's value but in deep bench leagues am trying to cuff Doyle with Ebron as my backup and waiting and seeing.  In short bench leagues I try to just avoid the situation.  It'll drive you nuts just owning one.

 

[BobbyLayne]

We had 19 TEs drafted in our 12 x 16. Doyle went TE12 and Ebron TE17. Seems about right.

 

[Widbil83]

I've been all over Ebron.

don't overthink it.  Ebron is very talented and has the opportunity and a clear path to targets.

Doyle is keeping his price down.

I’m with you on this island.  Luck was all over him last game and clearly likes him in the red zone.  I know Doyle didn’t play, but the targets will be there for Ebron I believe. 

 

[da_budman]

We had 19 TEs drafted in our 12 x 16. Doyle went TE12 and Ebron TE17. Seems about right.

One thing that hasnt been mentioned much is being off for so long I would expect a much bigger percentage of shorter passes from Luck  which = TE  and RB....  i think TE 12 and 17, barring injury,  is the absolute floor for these 2.  

 

[runner06]

https://www.stampedeblue.com/2018/8/28/17790970/colts-vs-49ers-preseason-week-three-snap-counts

Not sure it if is a cause concern for Doyle owners but the Colts snap count in the third game for TEs was as follows:

Eric Ebron - 31

Ross Travis - 25

Eric Swoope - 24

Mo Alie-Cox 3

Jack Doyle - 3

Haven't seen anything about Doyle being hurt.

 

[wlwiles]

Ignore the TEs, just draft Luck and then get all the points 

 

[Bojang0301]

Doyle ran 50 routes, Ebron 22.

 

[Elevencents]

Of Luck’s 53 pass attempts, 5 of them went over 15 yards. I think Doyle could push for top 5 this year. You know they are gonna throw the ball a TON and if he still isn’t comfortable, for whatever reason, airing it out on a consistent basis those passes over the middle to Doyle are gonna add up. 

 

[Steelers4Life]

Doyle hasn't practiced this week, and missed again today. 

With as good as Ebron has looked and as efficient as he's been on the limited action he's seen, he could be a big-time play this week if Doyle sits.  He might be anyways if Doyle is limited, and unless it's been precautionary all week, Doyle will at best be limited this week.

 

[FF Ninja]

59 snaps vs. 17 snaps in week 2

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

59 snaps vs. 17 snaps in week 2

Who has the higher #

 

[Steelers4Life]

59 snaps vs. 17 snaps in week 2

Yep.  But we don't get points for Doyle's blocking.  

In week 2, Doyle was in for 95% of the snaps but ran only 10 routes, got 5 targets, and caught 2 for 20 yards

Ebron was in for 22% of the snaps, ran 9 routes, got 4 targets, and caught 3 for 26 and a TD

Similar story as week 1. 

Doyle was in for 87% of the snaps, ran 36 routes, and caught 7 of 10 targets for 60 yards

Ebron was only in for 22% of the snaps but ran 14 routes and converted 5 targets into a 4-51-1 line

Two games.  Doyle has been in there 4 or 5 times more than Ebron but has only 9 catches for 80 yards.  Ebron has played as a true backup but has 7 catches, 77 yards, and 2 TDs

If Doyle sits this week, Ebron could be huge.

 

[menobrown]

Yep.  But we don't get points for Doyle's blocking.  

In week 2, Doyle was in for 95% of the snaps but ran only 10 routes, got 5 targets, and caught 2 for 20 yards

Ebron was in for 22% of the snaps, ran 9 routes, got 4 targets, and caught 3 for 26 and a TD

Similar story as week 1. 

Doyle was in for 87% of the snaps, ran 36 routes, and caught 7 of 10 targets for 60 yards

Ebron was only in for 22% of the snaps but ran 14 routes and converted 5 targets into a 4-51-1 line

Two games.  Doyle has been in there 4 or 5 times more than Ebron but has only 9 catches for 80 yards.  Ebron has played as a true backup but has 7 catches, 77 yards, and 2 TDs

If Doyle sits this week, Ebron could be huge.

One of the reasons I liked Ebron a lot coming into this year was that he showed in the second half of the season last year he did not need a lot of snaps to be a good fantasy contributor.

I don't know route counts but weeks 9-16 last year he got 31.5 snaps a game.  He only had 2 TD's in those 8 games so not as TD dependent as he's been this year. On just 31.5 snaps and a season TD pace of 4 he was the #4 PPG TE in both TE premium leagues and single PPR leagues during that 9-16 stretch.

To me this provided a fairly good idea of what his floor might look with Doyle getting majority of snaps, as I assumed he would. So me I saw a guy who was cheap, had a solid floor, and had major top 5 upside should an injury occur to Doyle or simply at any time coaching staff deciding they wanted to use Ebron more.

 

[Steelers4Life]

Time to fire up Ebron.  Doyle is out this week.

Jim Irsay

@JimIrsay

The following are OUT for Sunday.

DT/DE Denico Autry
T Anthony Castonzo
TE Jack Doyle
RB Marlon Mack
DT Hassan Ridgeway
CB Quincy Wilson

1:04 PM · Sep 21, 2018

 

[menobrown]

I'd rank Ebron as TE #4 this week and will be starting him in likely over 20 leagues. I like him a ton this week but I'll admit that kind of exposure worries me, mainly for in game injury  especially coming off a week I got 19  zero's for Zuerlien and learned a painful lesson in overexposure.

 

[FF Ninja]

Who has the higher #

Doyle

 

[tangfoot]

I'd rank Ebron as TE #4 this week and will be starting him in likely over 20 leagues. I like him a ton this week but I'll admit that kind of exposure worries me, mainly for in game injury  especially coming off a week I got 19  zero's for Zuerlien and learned a painful lesson in overexposure.

Your problem isn't overexposure, it's that your playing in too many ####### leagues.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Starting Ebron over Burton because I can't watch Burton run open over the middle of the field without getting targeted anymore. 

 

[Skoo]

Starting Ebron over Burton because I can't watch Burton run open over the middle of the field without getting targeted anymore. 

Are you me? Just made the same switch.

 

[menobrown]

Your problem isn't overexposure, it's that your playing in too many ####### leagues.

Most ever by far and when Wednesday blind bid waivers run for all leagues I tell myself exactly what you are telling me.

 

[BigBlue_RI]

Is Ebron a better play over Jimmy Graham in non-PPR?

 

[Krilons Resa]

Any Indy homers have any news on Doyle?  Should he regain the lead once finally back?

 

[Truebluey]

well beyond Hilton the Colts don't have much of anything at WR, they will likely run a lot of 2 TE sets and it isn't like this offense hasn't in the past. Two (I would argue) much less talented TE's named Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener had some success here at the same time. I don't think either guy will be top 5 but they have the potential to both finish in the top 12 if things break right. I don't see it as an avoid myself

Good call.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Any Indy homers have any news on Doyle?  Should he regain the lead once finally back?

What is the latest on his expected return?  I don't need him for several weeks so can afford to wait, but I imagine he is free right now on some waiver wires.