Draft Busts: Looking Back to 2016 (1 Viewer)

[Ilov80s]

I thought it might be helpful to identify the major busts from last year and look at why they busted. Maybe that can help us identify players to avoid for 2017. 

Group 1: Bad QBs 

Todd Gurley, Lamar Miller, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Marshall

The Jets, Texans and Rams QBs scored the least number of fantasy points in the NFL last year. How bad was it? Those 3 teams threw a total of 45 TDs and 60 INTs. It almost doesn't even matter whether we talk RB, WR or TE, if their QBs are playing that bad, almost anyone will disappoint owners. 

2017 Bust potential: Gurley, Miller and Hopkins still have to be considered. It also makes me take a close look at Jordan Howard and Jay Ajayi. Cutler/Moore should be competent. Trubisky/Glennon should also be competent. However, there is a risk in both situations that we see really bad QB play. Crowell is another player that could get poisoned by completely inept QB play. Last year Hue was good enough to scheme production from awful QBs, but it might be asking a lot for him to do it a second straight year. 

Final thought: Gurley, Miller, Hopkins and Crowell are guys that I think are significant bust risks. 

Group 2: Injury

I don't mean got hurt during the season like Keenan Allen because that is a random event. I mean injury concerns that existed before fantasy drafts. 

Jamal Charles, Gronk, Sammy Watkins, Thomas Rawls

In all of these cases, rankers/drafters just trusted the positive quotes from the players and coaches and trusted the talent. In every case, despite the build-up of negative signs, most people were too positive about the outlooks and got burned on these guys. It's probably smart to not take injured players in the first few rounds.

2017 Bust Potential: Amari Cooper (mysterious leg issue hasn't practiced in a week), Demarco Murray (sounds minor enough, but of course worth watching), Hilton/Luck, Kelce (knee swelling, missed 4 practices) 

Final Thought: At this point everything is overreaction, but don't forget if these missed practices and missed preseason games pile up, we need to react and not just assume they will be fine for week 1. 

Group 3: Stopped Being Good?

No obvious reason why these guys fell off so hard, but they did.

Allen Robinson, Alshon Jeffrey, Randall Cobb. All of them were being drafted in the first 4 rounds based on previous season(s) of strong production. The opportunities still seemed in place for strong production but these players disappointed at every turn in 2016. 

2017 Bust Potential: Alshon and AR15. We kind of saw Cobb follow this path. He had his big 1200 yard 12 TD year in 2014. Then Cobb became a 2nd round pick in 2015. He was a bust, but people still saw hope and drafted him in the early 4th in 2016. He busted again. Are we seeing Alshon and AR15 at a discount this year or are we paying for two years ago? Todd Gurley - why does that name keep popping up? Michael Thomas fits the profile but he has some great insulation being on the Saints.

Final Thought: The teams with the 4 least productive QBs were Rams, Texans, Jets, and Bears.  Maybe Alshon wasn't bad last year but suffered from a bad QB/offense. Well, then things might not improve much in Philly as Eagles QBs were the 5th least productive. I am out on Alshon. Gurley has popped twice on this list so I think it's pretty clear he is not a guy I am advising anyone to draft. 

 

[-OZ-]

Injury or "stopped being good" are really hard to plan for other than making a risk assessment.

I don't put much weight into the bad qb argument when David Johnson, Crowell and Jordan Howard all did well. Palmer might not be horrible but he sure wasn't good.

 

[Ilov80s]

Injury or "stopped being good" are really hard to plan for other than making a risk assessment.

I don't put much weight into the bad qb argument when David Johnson, Crowell and Jordan Howard all did well. Palmer might not be horrible but he sure wasn't good.

Injury is very easy to plan for: don't draft guys that are already hurt. I agree on stopped being good. Who could have predicted AR15 gets the same number of targets from Bortles but scores only about 55% of the fantasy points.

I agree that having a bad QB isn't a death sentence but it is stacking odds against players. Howard flourished in a bad Bears offense that was content to feed the run game even when down big. DJ played on an average offense. Cards QBs scored 18th most fantasy points. Crowell wasn't all that good last year, he was just a great value. If someone takes Crow in the early 3rd this year and he repeats his 2016, they will consider him a disappointment. Crow is being drafted about RB12-14 but was RB25 in standard ppg last year. I think the more you avoid bad offenses early, the better chances are you will avoid busts. Of course Randall Cobb proves no plan is perfect.

 

[shadrap]

didn't want to quote your initial post starter,   but..............................................great post!

 

[shadrap]

to continue, if you can get a key cog on a team like the Patriots you got gold.   How often do you look at a final score of 10 to 7 & know you have a few players going & gag?.  Not fun.  Now look at a NE score of 28 in the 1st half-hello production.   just have to figure out which teams & which key players.   not easy.